Moonshots with Peter Diamandis - NVIDIA's $1 Trillion Prediction, Anthropic Beats OpenAI, Tesla vs. TSMC & The CS Job Collapse | 240

Episode Date: March 21, 2026

Mates recap Nvidia GTC madness - Jensen's $1T revenue blitz fueling robots, robocabs, orbital fabs, and NemoClaw - while unpacking OpenClaw's GitHub supernova, Anthropic's enterprise crush on OpenAI, Elon's TerraFab TSMC-killer, and inference deflation exploding abundance. Get access to metatrends 10+ years before anyone else - https://qr.diamandis.com/metatrends   Peter H. Diamandis, MD, is the Founder of XPRIZE, Singularity University, ZeroG, and A360 Salim Ismail is the founder of OpenExO Dave Blundin is the founder & GP of Link Ventures Dr. Alexander Wissner-Gross is a computer scientist and founder of Reified – My companies: Apply to Dave's and my new fund:https://qr.diamandis.com/linkventureslanding      Go to Blitzy to book a free demo and start building today: https://qr.diamandis.com/blitzy   Your body is incredibly good at hiding disease. Schedule a call with Fountain Life to add healthy decades to your life, and to learn more about their Memberships: https://www.fountainlife.com/peter  _ Connect with Peter: X Instagram Connect with Dave: X LinkedIn Connect with Salim: X Join Salim's Workshop to build your ExO  Connect with Alex Website LinkedIn X Email Substack  Spotify Threads Listen to MOONSHOTS: Apple YouTube – *Recorded on March 19th, 2026 *The views expressed by me and all guests are personal opinions and do not constitute Financial, Medical, or Legal advice. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This was NVIDIA world. It was an absolute madhouse. OpenClaw is the number one. It's the most popular open source project in the history of humanity, and it did so in just a few weeks. We're announcing our support of it. This is just the extraordinary breadth that NVIDIA and Jensen are imagining. They're putting their hands or capabilities, their hardware, their production into everything. They're building an ecosystem and then letting everybody do it. radical innovation at the edges. This is what Microsoft was in the early days, what Google was, but times 100 times a thousand. Right here where I stand, I see through 2027 at least

$1 trillion. This week was fascinating. You know, we're going to dive into this. Sam Altman predicting you know, a thousand X drop in cost, Anthropic being named the most disruptive company, eating open-ey-eyes lunch. Amazing progress this week. Let's take a quick look here. So, Most importantly, Peter, massive congress. That was such an unbelievable conference. I consistently get amazed by the level that you're pulling off and jealous also. Thanks, pal. It was year 14, the best of all of them, I think. For me, the most important part is getting amazing people there. We had so many CEOs from so many industries. And I loved having all of you on stage with me. And I'm pulling you guys more in every year. So get ready. It was tremendous fun, Peter. Thank you for all of us.

It was great to meet Alex in person and verify that he is indeed at least a meat puppet, if not really. Well, let's talk about what we're talking about, Salim. Did you really meet me in person, or did you meet a clone or a transporter copy or a biop printed 3D meat puppet? It was one of those projections somewhere along the line. But what are we for the projection of spirit anyway? Yeah, well. Well, speak for yourself. You know, Ben Lamb bought the two best cloning companies in the world, the highest efficiency in cloning.

and success rate. And so I put myself in for duplication. Did you really? You just gave them a bunch of DNA while you were with them? Yeah, we're going to go. I figured 10 would be a good start, one per company. Wait, does that mean that we get a Peter burger at the next meal? Oh, yes. Oh my God. If you haven't seen H. Project Hale Mary yet, I've got my tickets ready. And of course, you know, anyway, well, let's not go there right now. All right. All right, welcome. everybody welcome to moonshots another episode of WTF just happened in tech i'm here with my moonshot mates db2 you're in boston today dave i am back in boston first time in three weeks amazing and alex weazner gross Alex AWG how are you doing pal i'm awake i'm back in boston as well after

of course the abundance summit and then a week in palm beach for palm beach forum so it's nice to be back beautiful and selim in uh in new york new jersey no I am in Miami. I've had the most insane few days. I flew from the summit. You left. I flew from the summit straight for an India today concl. Which is the biggest kind of magazine publication in India. And guess what I saw? I saw, they had three people on stage in a row. One was the foreign minister of Iran. So that was like, whoa. Wow. What? Yeah. Then they had Laura Lumer, giving somewhat the opposite perspective, shall we say. And then the Israeli ambassador to India. Oh, come on.

No, I'm serious. How does this exist? You're like, whoa, do not let those three in a room together. Wait a little, a little, a ride. Were you in seeing this and peace-maker? No, no, no. I was a separate speaker afterwards, and it was pretty out there. And then my health started because I flew to, from India through Heathrow to Miami to a Caribbean country,

which shall not be named, I walk into the immigration hall of this Caribbean country, 600 people in the immigration hall and two people working the passport county. You're like, this cannot be happening. During, you know, prime spring holidays, etc., etc. Not a hotel room we had in the entire, on the entire island,

and two people working immigration. So some place they're going to have to get their act together. I can't believe that he said. You're Salim, Pramon. Sonshots.com. Yes. Come on, skip the line. Welcome to Moonshots.

I'm Peter Diamandis, your host, and this is your number one podcast for AI and exponential tech. Our mission here, get you future ready, get you ready for the supersonic tsunami coming our way. As always,

we've got a full presentation on what's just happened the last three days. I missed you guys. It's only been about five, six days. and uh it feels like a month separation anxiety huh it feels like a month it really does um we're going to start here but i had a conversation this morning with two of our listeners who are in hollywood here they're hollywood producers jonas and josh pat uh pate and they said you know moonshots is

the light against the darkness and they were like just just could not stop saying you guys give us hope you know there's so much doom and gloom out there about the future and and this show gives us hope. So Jonas and Josh, thanks for that word. And everybody, please join us. We're almost at 500,000 subscribers, push us over the top. That would be meaningful. If you haven't subscribed, please do.

Turn on notifications. We're now publishing almost twice a week. And our mission is deliver you everything that's important. You know, this is the news that really matters in the world. Okay, we'll jump into top AI news. NVIDIA, OpenAI, Anthropic, and XAI are in the news. news this week. And this was NVIDIA World, GTC 2026, 30,000 attendees. It actually, the opening keynote by Jensen took place at SAP Center in San Jose. They couldn't hold it in the convention

center. Two thousand speakers, a thousand sessions. I actually dropped in for about an hour. And it was a absolute madhouse. You know, a first video we're going to watch here is Jensen talking about reaching a trillion dollars by 2027 in revenue, not in valuation. They blew past that a long time ago in revenue. And this event, this photo of 30,000 people in the room, that's what a trillion dollars of revenue looks like when the whole world ends up coming to you. So I think the most important thing to realize is that Jensen is looking to power everything, right? He's looking to own the infrastructure sure that runs physical AI, that runs data centers in space, that runs even open claw. So let's check it out.

I'm going to share a couple of videos and then let's chat about it. So the operating system for robots, cars, agents, and orbit. I've been holding off buying more Nvidia stock because how much higher could it go? Well, we're going to find out. Okay, Nvidia, let's listen. right here where I stand I see through 2027

at least one trillion dollars Dave a trillion bucks it's not really a trillion it's uh that's a trillion dollars of bookings that has to be recognized over the life of the bookings also that's spread across two years of so so uh amazon or anthropic is going to get to a trillion within a calendar year

faster than invidia Nvidia would get there faster if they could get the chips made because the demand is there, but TSM is the bottleneck. They've already locked up 70% of TSM's volume of the three nanometer node. There's just nowhere to go. Yeah, they can go up in price, I guess, but they can sell for a higher ticket. But you just can't make more chips. We don't have the fabs until Elon solves it. If Nvidia can actually lock up a trillion dollars in revenue from selling its hardware, I mean, how much negligence?

Negotiating power, do any of its customers have? Like, none. None. Yes, that's dead right. I mean, people are begging. It's funny, you heard Larry Ellison say this as long as a year ago. We are literally me and Elon and Sam are all lined up outside his door begging for the chips. When in the history of sales has the customer come to you begging for the product?

So it makes you wonder, why doesn't he charge more for it? But he's already at 80% gross margin? Like it would start to get kind of egregious. Yeah. You know, we're going to see Elon's, you know, tariffab in a little bit to compete against all this. But let's go to the next video here. Let's listen to Jensen talk about, you know, OpenClaw.

What a phenomenon. Oh, so Peter Steinberger's here. And he wrote a piece of software. It's called OpenClaw. And I don't know if he realized how successful is going to be, but the importance is profound. OpenClaw is the number one. It's the most popular. I'm going to pause it here.

Look at that red line, that red vertical line. Right? So that yellow line here is Facebook. And that blue line is Lennox, right? So we're talking about, you know, incredible growth for both of them over the last decade. And then here comes OpenClaw vertical. Do you remember when ChatGPT came out and you were like, oh, my God, you know, a million users in what was 100 days? What could possibly scale faster?

Well, here we go. I'll continue on. Oh, I got to tell you. Project in the history of... Yeah, please. Oh, so John Werner had a meeting with a very high-ranking MIT administration. and he had some kind of a lobster garment on. Oh, the tie that I gave him, the lobster tie.

And I won't tell you who it was because it's just too embarrassing. But they're like, what's the significance of the lobster? Like, what? Wow. Like, what? Where have you been? Like, it's the biggest cultural phenomenon probably in world history. Well, of course, in Boston, a lobster's a different significance.

I guess, but I, oh, my God. You know what I saw when I thought this? Was I thought when I saw this was this is the classic exponential. I mean, we're past that now, but it looks vertical in front of you, and it looks boring and dull behind you, right? So in a week, we'll look at this and go, yeah, yesterday, you know, it's something else came, but that line, that line is so unreal. It is unreal. And it's, you know, like Alex is always saying, don't sleep through the singularity. We take it for granted, but it's only been a few weeks, you know, it's, it would be very easy to have been on a Caribbean

island accidentally, you know, for a little while and and have no idea what's going on. I'll jump back into Johnson here on OpenClaw. Of humanity and it did so in just a few weeks. It exceeded. It exceeded what Linux did in 30 years. And it's that important. It is that important. It will do.

Well, this is all you do. Okay. We're announcing our support of it. They're announcing Nemo Claw. AWG, what do you thought? I think it's inevitable that Invidia would need to play in this space. I do agree with the premise that OpenClaw is probably, as Jensen and others have characterized, it the biggest thing in AI, at least in terms of unhobblings, since ChatGPT unhobled GPT3 in 2022.

I think in some sense it was also inevitable that the next big unhobbling after chat GPT would also grow far more quickly in terms of adoption than chat GPT itself because all of these unhobblings are technically stacked on top of each other open claw in the sense that it's sort of a 24-7 headless other than via messaging and other mechanisms agent that builds on top of everything else that we've built on thus far in the tech stack it builds on reasoning models it builds on large language models underneath and so in some sense as we build further up the stack in terms of more and more advanced unhobblings for these AI capabilities, I do expect the growth pattern to shorten even further to the point where maybe in a few months or, say, at maximum two years,

we're having a similar discussion. History will rhyme and we'll see, oh, this new repo from 2027 went from zero to a billion, stars in five minutes and we'll have the same Jensen quote probably and say, all right, we're going all in. Hey, everybody. You may not know this, but I've done an incredible research team. And every week, myself, my research team, study the meta trends that are impacting the world. Topics like computation, sensors, networks, AI, robotics, 3D printing, synthetic biology.

And these Metatrend reports I put out once a week, enable you to see the future 10 years ahead of anybody else. If you'd like to get access to the Metatrends newsletter every week, go to digital. deamandis.com slash metatrends. That's d'amandis.com slash metatrends. NVIDIA is, you know, trying to optimize for enterprise on their full stack with NemoClaw. And the question is, if they really optimize and they're selling it packaged with NVIDIA, is it really truly open infrastructure? We're going to start to see a lot of people trying to capture that. And of course, we saw last

week that Anthropic is effectively duplicating all the elements of open claw. this is going to go everywhere, and I wonder how fast it's going to hit. Salim, have you started your lobster yet? I have strong thoughts here. Please. I think what you said, Peter, is exactly right. We're going to see a flurry of these. We're also seeing a bunch of perplexity computer.

On the other end, you've got Pico Claw and at the other end of the stack. But this announcement from Nvidia for me was a monster. implication because one of the things about open claw was that you have recursive self-improvement in business workflows. And this is the heart of this paper I've been writing, which I think will be ready next week called the organizational singularity, right? Once you have that, all human-to-human workflows essentially evaporate. You can't sustain. You can't compete because once you put a workflow into this set of agents, then they're optimizing it by themselves. You want to get the humans out of the ways fastest possible.

And the fact that this is announced to support enterprises solves the open-claw security issues and the danger that comes with it. This will be the biggest thing to hit the enterprise world in decades. And I think we're going to see adoption by enterprises at that scale. I've had CEOs calling me saying, please, because my thesis is you can't fix any existing. organization because it's inherently human to human. All the AI projects are failing. Corporate AI projects are failing because they're trying to optimize human to human. And we're inherently

flawed anyway in terms of latency, jealousy, time taken. You know, Peter you send me an email. You never know if I'm going to respond. All that frailty comes into the human being. Whereas if you go agent to agent and you're improving the workflows recursively, this profoundly chase. So every organization in the world now is to do one thing to survive, one only, which is at the edge of your organization, create an AI-native operating system that's centric, AI-centric, and start moving workflows over to it. Human beings then become oversight and then exception handling and monitoring the overall system. And this is going to have to happen now, and we're going to see, I've got, we may have to batch up CEOs and say, we'll take you in batches through this process, but it's going to have to, it's

going to be every company, every nonprofit, every government department, every single organization in the world. The implications for government are profound because government is mostly prescriptive processes, past pro renewals and so on. So this is going to be incredible. And I think the value this will add to the world is going to be near infinite from where we can see it today to where it will get to. Salim, that is so dead right. And last night I installed Amazon Bedrock or opened an Amazon Bedrock account because you can run open claw there now, which is brilliant. by AWS, but I swear to God, it was less than 10 minutes. Just go to a WS.com. If you have a credit card and you're a human being, you can be up and running with OpenClawe inside a secure

environment. And I think the reason this is such a big unlock for business is because when we started rolling this out at Vesmark, the first problem we ran into is a lot of people trying to automate their job react through emails and slacks and other messaging systems, and there was no way to connect Claude to it. And so, you know, cutting and pasting all the the crap out of email to get it over to clawed or to open AI was such a pain in the butt. Now, with OpenClaw running in a secure environment on AWS, it's instantly connected to all of our enterprise emails and everything else. So it's like for just regular, like the coders have known this when they're writing code for a long

time, more like a year. But the rest of the business hasn't been able to really tap into AI. And now it's just, you know, because of OpenClaas, just trivially easy. And it's still early. And it's still early. I'm just noting the date March 16th is the date of the organizational singularity. Make it St. Patrick's Day. It's easier to remember. Okay, St. Patrick's Day. That's even easier, yes.

We're going to hit two more videos than talk about it. And again, this is just the extraordinary breath that NVIDIA and Jensen are imagining. They're putting their hands or capabilities, their hardware, their production into everything. I mean, multiple trillion dollar avenues. What's really powerful, what's really powerful for NVIDA here, sorry to interrupt here, is that they're building an ecosystem and then letting everybody do radical innovation at the edges, right? And that's how successful, this is the core reef analogy we've used in the past. And let's get into physical AI. You know, Eric Schmidt was discussing this at the Abundance Summit. Let's take a listen.

We also have been working on physically embodied agents for a long time. We call them robots. And the AIs that they need are physical AIs. We have some big announcements here. I'm going to just walk through a few of them. 110 robots here. Almost every single company in the world. I can't think of one that a building robots is working with Nvidia.

We even have T-Mobile here. And the reason for that is in the future, that radio tower used to be a radio tower is going to be an Nvidia aerial AI-RAN. And today we are announcing four new partners for Nvidia's Robotaxy Ready Platform, B-YD, Hyundai, Nissan, Gile, all together, 18 million cars built each year, joining our partners from before, Mercedes, Toyota, GM, the number of Robotaxie ready cars in the future are going to be incredible. And we're announcing also a big partnership with Uber. Multiple cities we're going to be deploying and connecting these robotaxie ready vehicles

into their network. Insane. This is what Microsoft was in the early days, what Google was, but times 100, times a thousand. Invidia inside everything. So, you know, my question to you guys is how long before regulators frame Nvidia as critical infrastructure and start treating it more like a utility, how long before they start being seen as having too much power by all of their customers and by governments?

They're dusting off their antitrust legislation as we speak. I think the critical product of Nvidia compute is already highly export controlled. It may get, even more export controlled over the coming months. So I think this is already highly regulated. What I see coming out of GTC this year is in some sense the Western response to China's AI plus five-year plan.

In China, the Chinese Communist Party has a five-year plan to infuse AI into the rest of the industrial ecology. We don't really have quite the same industrial policy in the West or in the U.S., although we do have an increasingly aggressive industrial policy. I'm asking. The question I'm asking is, you know, Invidia is getting so much power. It's so fundamental into every single layer of the stack, all physical AI or data centers everywhere.

Besides antitrust, you know, they have such power that they can make or break their kingmakers if they want to be. and how much before they get, you know, their customer saying, you have too much control over us and we need to compete. I think they're very, very specifically, you're dead right, Peter, and very specifically the choke point is going to be the conversation with TSM and also Intel and Samsung. Like, I could literally design a chip and sell it out, you know.

It's not hard to sell chips in the age of AI if you can get them made. So what Jensen is doing right now is locking up the future manufacturing of TSM see as far into the future as they'll let him. Well, what do you mean by they'll let him? Well, it's the government that will ultimately say it's anti-competitive to do a 10-year forward contract on all of their manufacturing capacity. And that's where the rubber is going to hit the road. So he has to kind of, you know, his margins are so high.

We also have- Yeah, bordering on, you know, where the government will intervene. And if you start locking up all future manufacturing using your current leverage, that's where they're going to come and it's going to collide. And you'll see that with Elon's plans, too. That's right. There'll be severe competition coming. He's trying to lock everything up before that all arrives.

Yeah, I want to question the premise, though, Peter. I don't think, say, the clip that we just played, which is Jensen demonstrating the pervasiveness of invidia compute into an industrial ecology is intrinsically anti-competitive. This is exactly, I would argue, what Nvidia should be doing. If you want to look for anti-competitive behavior, then I would scrutinize perhaps the GROC acquisition or activities like that. I don't think the pervasiveness in robots and robotaxies is, is it a bad sign? This is incredibly, I would argue, good sign for the West. Again, going back to what the CCP is doing with their five-year plan.

Well, the GROC acquisition is exactly where the rubber hits the mode. The NVIDIA story on GROC is, look, they've got a better inference. time design, we want to acquire them. The GROC point of view is we can't get this made unless we get the TSMC 3 nanometer and 2 nanometer capacity and Jensen locked it up. So we have to sell to him. But he gave us a great price tag, so it's all good. So here's my question, Dave, to you, what do you imagine we're going to see in terms of NVIDIA's revenues? Is he going to hit the trillion dollars? Is he going to continue to climb? Is there no ceiling on this? Is there a... There's no ceiling whatsoever.

It'll be $350 billion this calendar year, and it will grow at the max possible rate that he can get TSM capacity. So he can grow another 2X into the 2 nanometer node, and then he's floored. You know, a lot of the growth, you know, he had about 20% market share with TSM when this all started. Now he's up to a lot more than that. So he had a lot of really fast growth.

But from here on out, it's all gated by how quickly can we build new fabs. And there's a lot of investment and research, going into new fab designs, new types, which are all bottlenecked by ASML machines, which are absolutely worth tracking. Every time an ASL machine gets shipped, it's worth tracking, who got it? Where is it going to? Because they're going to print money with it. It's like literally you bought a printing press. Yeah. Well, there's a lot of talk right now that Elon is secretly negotiating with Intel, because Intel has a lot of those that they booked years ago. And, you know, they're underutilized relative to TV. Well, when we were, when we were

podcasting with Elon, you know, we said, are you going to buy Intel? That was our guest back then. He didn't say no. He kind of looks around the room. It would be such an obvious thing to do. One more video. Again, I mean, just the breadth of Jensen's vision and jumping in. I mean, every place there's an opportunity, you know, NVIDIA is jumping in strong. Let's take a listen. We have, we're working with our partners on a new computer called Vera Rubin Space One. And it's going to go out to space and start. data centers out out in space now of course in space there's no conduction there's no convection there's just radiation and so we have to figure out how to cool these systems out in space but we've

got lots of so i still love the fact that no one was discussing this seven eight months ago yeah Elon states we're going to do this and the entire world is converging to implement his vision and his dream crazy you know it's funny to me is i had so many meetings uh three months ago with semiconductor companies that are all excited about liquid cooling. And they've got, you know, different etched grooves on the backs of the chip and the water's in, they're all dead silent. And all of a sudden, they're like, yeah, that won't work in space. Sorry.

Oh, my God. Well, that's the nature of the singularity. You know, things are going to change every month and just to get used to it, I guess. I do find it somewhat surprising that Nvidia hasn't been working on orbital radiation-based data cooling for, cooling rather for years. It is pretty surprising. On the one hand, one can say, well, the Dyson swarm snuck up on us, and this is a very surprising killer app for GPU compute and, frankly, for the solar system. On the other hand, it is surprising to me that given how many tendrils NVIDIA has into so many different verticals that they weren't investing more earlier in space-based

cooling, there is, I get this question all the time, the common misconception that cooling, radiation-based cooling in space is somehow very difficult or very challenging or somehow an obstacle to a scale-out. It's actually not that difficult. I don't think, despite Jensen's comments that he has dozens of engineers, I think, was the quote, working on radiation-based cooling for orbital data centers or orbital GPUs working on it. That's an optimization. We know how to cool orbital compute right now. My concern, Alex, is more a massive solar flare or an EMP, you know, in terms of warfare state, knocking out a significant portion of our data centers up there. We know how to do that, too. We know how to design ionization-resistant electronics in orbit. We've been doing it for decades.

There are various techniques. You can use older process nodes. You can use extensive error correction. You can use shielding. Lots of different techniques. My favorite is the Star Trek technique of transatlose. just using a magnetic field to deflect ions and otherwise deflect ionizing radiation around. It doesn't work for photons, obviously. It only works for charged particles. But I think we're going to come up with lots of solutions for protecting orbital. In the long run, yes. I think the short run is what I'm concerned about.

Aren't there significant latency issues with space-based stuff? Not if they're in low-earth orbit. Low-earth orbit is very low latency. Yeah, I mean, it's Starlink on your phone very shortly. And again, you're putting the prompt up into space, and you're getting the answer beam down to you. So it's, there's a lot of stuff. I mean, you could probably parse the latency request

to different parts of the constellation. Aller said something brilliant, as always, and kind of very quickly there that I want to just rewind the tape to. There's a huge opportunity in older process nodes. just file that away if you're a listener wondering what you're going to do post-singularity, partially because they're resistant to radiation in space, but partially because it's underutilized capacity in the age where all AI will sell out. So we can riff on that some other time, but I want to just call it out

because Alex says these things so quickly. It's incredibly profound what he just said. Maybe one more teaser just on the latency front. People are sleeping on neutrinos. I'll make a prediction, just like people, maybe some folks were surprised by the Dyson Swarm orbital data centers, people are sleeping on the potential for neutrino-based communication to give us ultra-low latency through the Earth communication. Right now we don't have great technologies for producing in a way that's high-throughput neutrinos or for receiving neutrinos. The neutrino detectors in miles or thousands of meters below the ground in large,

What's the liquid they use for tracking neutrinos? It's usually heavy water. It's usually heavy water or something. Looking for ionization trails. That's right. But there's no physical reason from the physics that we have today why it has to be so inefficient via the electro-week force to couple to neutrinos.

So one can imagine in a few years when we have better physics, having neutrino phones that just goes straight through the earth and then we can completely route around. Neutrinof phones. Neutrinop phones. It's awesome. All right. That was also not on my bingo card for any discussions.

Come on. This week was fascinating. We're going to dive into this. Sam Altman predicting a thousand X drop in cost. Claude writing 70 to 90% of its own code. Anthropic being named the most disruptive company. And literally Claude or Anthropic eating open-eis lunch. amazing progress this week.

Let's take a quick look here. So first up, Sam Altman talking about his speed and cost. All right, Sam. People cite whatever amazing statistic they like about how much more efficient our models have gotten over, our industry's models have gotten over time. But one that I think is incredible. Our first reasoning model was called 01. Came out like 16 months ago. and our latest model with now integrated reasoning is 5.4.

To get the same answer to a hard problem from that first model to 5.4 has been a reduction in cost of about 1,000x. Do you believe that number, Alex? I do. It's consistent with the 40x year-over-year hyper-deflation that we've discussed on the pod previously. But I want to highlight the implicit part that Sam has mentioned. which is he's highlighting the difference between 01, which is OpenAI's first reasoning model and GPT 5.4, which is their latest reasoning model. He's not highlighting, say, differences with models prior to the reasoning model revolution. So we've seen, if you look at the AI capabilities since reasoning models were first introduced, the hyper-deflation of cost

has been extraordinary. It's reasoning models that are enabling this massive increase. and capabilities. It's not necessarily training time compute. We see the shift to inference time compute or action time compute. That's really enabling this 1,000x increase in, call it, capability per unit price. And I would expect that, and I think maybe we'll touch on this in a moment, as we hit recursive self-improvement more and more aggressively, we're going to see this order of magnitude increase in capability per unit price fall out for free in some sense, just like reasoning models in some sense fell out for free once you had the baseline of large language models and simply allowed them to sort of talk to themselves with additional

tokens and reasoning time. And then you can through iterated amplification and distillation enable them to reason more effectively. We're going to see post-transformer architectures that make a thousand-x reduction in cost look like child's play. Yeah. And if you rewind the video here to Jensen's comments and look really closely at what he has on screen in the corner, you'll see him talk about the inference explosion as was driving this trillion dollars of bookings at NVIDIA, which is the exact same thing Alex is talking about. Like for all of neural network research history going back 40 years, nobody cared about inference time because the training was the bottleneck and the model wasn't smart enough to care about making it inference really fast. Now, chain of thought

reasoning is the biggest breakthrough ever. And you can use inference time compute to build a smarter and smarter and smarter AI. And it's very easy to optimize inference relative to training. And we as a society have really just started on it in the last really two years or less. And that's why we're getting these massive gains. But that's also why everyone's really underestimating the next year. Because we did a thousand X. Like what are you expecting in the next year? Oh, 2X. Like, what are you talking about? Yeah. It's not going to happen. that way. Dave, you just said something there. Can I just drill in on that? Why is inference so much easier to optimize than training? Yeah, go ahead. Alex, nail it. I was going to say part of it is,

frankly, there's an overhang. Prior to 01 and the reasoning model revolution, almost no effort was being spent in scaling inference-time compute. So if you go from having zero tokens expended in reasoning to thousands of tokens expended in reasoning. In some sense, you get performance for free out of that, at least capability per unit price, because you were expending so little cost. If you look at the overall pie of how much compute was spent on training time

versus inference time, so little compute was being spent on inference time that you can scale across orders of magnitude of the amount of time in an absolute sense that you spend on inference time without materially impacting your overall budget. So you can get orders of magnitude of effective cost reduction per unit capability for free just through brute force scaling of inference time.

Now at some point, and we're reaching that point now, you run out of room and inference time compute starts to dominate the overall pie. And there are many frontier models now where inference time is more inference time compute is being spent than training time compute for some definition of each of those quantities, at which point the free lunch runs out. and then you have to start getting, discovering new efficiencies. I want to make the abundance argument here for folks listening. I mean, a thousand times cheaper in 16, 18 months.

You know, we are nowhere near optimized for inference, compute, energy, and cost. Six billion people with a smartphone means that effectively there's going to be some level of extraordinary AI available to every single person on the planet. Again, what makes us special as humans, we're not the fact. fastest, we're not the strongest, we're potentially, hopefully the smartest. And we've delivering intelligence as a service to everybody. And intelligence as a service gives everybody access to education, healthcare, entertainment, you know, re-education for employment. Go ahead, Slim. Can I make a radical, heretical comment here? I'll make a prediction

that the optimization we're doing, which is 1,000 X and 16 months is going to keep going to in such a way that we may not need to tile the world with data centers or energy. I think you're the point we've been making until now is that the demand for compute is so ridiculous maybe 10 million times and we'll optimize, we'll needle every single jewel of it. But if the optimization is having that crazy, like for example, once you can run open claw locally and run models locally, then the compute,

the energy needed is really quite minimal for that. And so do we really need the massive energy build out? Well, we thought so. John Warner calls that the wall, you know, it's not Wally, it's the other Disney movie where they're all blobs floating in space and they've kind of forgotten to innovate because it's everything so easy.

Which movie is that? That is Wally, isn't it? It is Wally. Is it Wally? Yes. Yeah, I mean, that would imply that I go to you, Salim, and I say, hey, Salim, I can give you one billion employees with an IQ of 180 each.

Can you think of anything useful to build? And you go, nah, I can't really use it. So the point you're making is we'll find so many ridiculous use cases for putting intelligence in every little sensor in the world. Remember, six billion people have access to a smartphone, and how many people are using AI right now? Open AI is at 8 pushing 900,000. I think Peter, the elephant in the room with the consumer case of putting a country of geniuses not in a data center, but in your smartphone in your pocket, is thus far consumers and an open AI has sort of been shocked by this haven't made good use of reasoning capabilities, whereas enterprises are thrilled with reasoning capabilities. So if we want to empower individuals in the world, we need to discover a killer app for individuals.

to use reasoning other than chatbots. Well, we need to change their mindset. You know, I'm, you know, I'll say this again right here. Everybody listening, your job is to use AI every day. We had Bill Gross on stage at the Abundance Summit, basically saying we have to retrain ourselves because all of us have learned that if you have to do something, you have to do it or you have to find an employer do it for you. The judo move here, the new mindset wiring is I need something done.

I bet you AI can do it for me better than I can and better than be human. I have a killer app. I mean, for God's sake, any little bit of common sense as a killer app. I mean, God, we need more of that around the world. You get common sense from baseline large language model capabilities. I think I'm not even sure you need a lot of reasoning for that. So let's just force every human being before you make any stupid decisions, check with your common sense app before you do dumb things.

Well, that's called having a solution is likely to end up being something like turning every individual into an enterprise that actually needs reasoning capability. I think there's probably a trillion dollar company to be built turning every individual in the world into like one-person unicorns. Let's jump in to Sam Altman talking about AI reinventing itself. On the research perspective, I bet there is another new architecture to find that is going to be as big of a gain as transformers were over LSTMs. and I think you finally have models that are smart enough to help do that kind of research. So I would go look for like where can I find a mega breakthrough?

And I would use the models to help me. And we had Kevin Wheel on stage, you know, who's heading science at OpenAI. We talked about the fact that what's hidden inside these hypers inside these frontier labs is the fact that they're going to use AI to create incredible breakthroughs in in physics and chemistry and biology in material science in in AI itself and each of those are multi-trillion dollar opportunities itself so Alex thoughts well maybe just to speak at the object level to Sam's comments about a leap from transformer to something after transformer that's comparable to LSTM to transformer I think that's very likely he may even be

gesturing at something that Open AI has internally. I want to combat the perception that the post-transformer hypothetical post-transformer architecture necessarily will involve a recurrent architecture. There are a lot of companies that were founded on the premise that just because transformers superficially have an intention bottleneck and a context window bottleneck and seem to have plateaued out at about a million or so tokens of context, that somehow going backwards in time to recurrent architectures like LSDMs, which are a form of recurrent architecture, are somehow the solution. If I had to guess what does the definitive category killer post-transformer

architecture look like, I think it's going to come out of left field. I think it's going to come maybe from a line of research. There are a few lines of research that involve using transformers to directly write the weights of other transformer architectures. Transformers are really wonderful. they parallelize nicely, they have nice residual streams. There's a lot to like about the transformer architecture. I think it could involve some refactorization of the weights. It's going to be something clever and not just sort of a return to recurrent weights. It's not brute force.

It's going to be something orthogonal. Well, it can't be brute force if it's going to be a fundamentally new architecture. Brut force is just what we do if we don't have transformative new architectures. But I would encourage everyone who gets excited. There's an entire cottage industry of academic researchers who don't necessarily have access to the raw brute force compute of a frontier lab who want to be the ones to discover the next transformer. I would encourage you, if you're listening, focus your attention on the small language model space. And there are so many lovely benchmarks like the speed run for nano-GPT training or a variety of slow-run benchmarks for data efficiency. focus on those and discover the next big thing and it probably won't be recurrent networks.

And it probably will, it'll be soon like in the next year. Yeah. And it probably won't map well to the current Nvidia architecture. So you'll immediately want to call Lisa Sue at AMD or, you know, call Intel and figure out how you're going to get it manufactured on custom hard. Very much like Google is doing with the TPUs or Elon is about to do. And that's how you're going to create the next Anthropic. the next Open AI. That's right. And that was quite frankly what Nvidia did to Intel. Intel for years,

if you remember, why is it that Intel, which was the 800-pound gorilla, why did Intel allow the GPU revolution to just pass it by? And it was because for years and years, Intel executives were trying naively to map what they perceived internally as a general-purpose CPU onto GPU-shaped problems. And that always ended up being a bad idea. They had all of these sort of skill to create tiled architectures of hundreds of CPU cores to solve GPU-shaped problems, but they were unwilling or unable to focus on specialized compute for specialized problem shapes. And if there is going to be an architectural disruptor for Nvidia, it's going to be the same sort of disruptive innovation that that Nvidia pulled on Intel,

which is it's going to have to be, I would expect, an architecture that's even more specialized than GPUs and yet even more useful. And I'll tell you what, Jensen. knows it's coming. That's why he's trying to lock up all the manufacturing so that you have to come through him rather than around him. But what Alex said earlier about the older process nodes being viable is brilliant because that's if you decide you don't want to sell to Jensen, that's your avenue forward. You just very quietly use the older process nodes, work around it, and talk to Intel or MD. So GPUs were Intel's codec moment.

In one sense. Sure. I mean, in sort of a Christiansen-esque disruptive innovation. Yeah. But in a very specialized form, yes. All right. The Frontier Lab Wars continues. Time magazine names Anthropic, the most disruptive company in the world.

And we're seeing this. And one point, Dave, you made a while ago, was as Open AI is making improvements, they're dropping their cost. At the same time, as Anthropics making improvements, they're increasing their performance, which is leaning it towards the enterprise level.

And they're winning, hands down. We're going to see that in the next slide. Let me just share that one right now. Here we go. Anthropic is eating Open AI's lunch. So this is AI model share of first-time enterprise customers. And we've seen Anthropic go from 40% up to 73% while Open AI goes from 60% down at 26%.

Over three months. This is insane. You know the story within the story that I really am tracking closely here is that, you know, Sam Altman is the consummate dealmaker, you know, Y Combinator background, traveling all of, I see them everywhere, negotiating, you know, multi-hundred billion-dollar deals on every corner, while Greg Brockman and Mark Chen are back in the office being the brilliant AI researchers. Dario is completely leading version of that. He's the actual AI researcher, understands every bit moving through the neural net,

while his wife is dealing with the business stuff. So it kind of inverted the formula. And it's interesting to watch it play out because when Mark Zuckerberg came into the business world as a 23-year-old or 22-year-old, him running a monster company was completely foreign terrain to everyone. And they're like, can't he this kid really figure it out?

And he reinvented what an internet CEO looks like. Now, Dario is reinventing what an AI CEO looks like. So if he ends up winning in the end, the profile of what a CEO looks like will have changed yet again. On the other hand, if Sam comes roaring back, it'll be interesting. It's a great drama. I bet you Dario doesn't want to be the CEO. I bet you Dario wants to be the researcher. He definitely didn't originally. I know that. I don't know if he's grown into it.

Look, my wife, Lily, is a way better business person than I am. So this is not surprising to me at all. What I found really interesting about this whole framing was, you know, these frontier labs are the weirdest. because they're part software company, part national security issue, part like huge governance experiment. I mean, this is really a weird animal that we've not seen before. Part of the problem. This chart is an absolute ass kicking, though.

I mean, I just want to call that out. This is a tool. And that's why, you know, you saw Kevin Wheel at A360 last week. He came and he talked and then he ran. And like, where are you running to? It's like the fire at OpenAI must be blazing. Yes. Code red again.

Yep, yep. Well, enterprise buyers reward fit stability, reliability, trust. And you really want that. And Anthropic is providing. Alex, you're about to say? Yeah, I think part of the problem is open AI had made a bet. And if you look at the timescale, I think the timescale agrees with this. Open AI had made a bet that consumers would need a lot of compute.

And Anthropic, with fewer resources and less compute than OpenAI, was forced to just focus on enterprise and then as post-talk turned that into sort of a story of how enterprise is intrinsically better as a customer base than consumers. I don't think enterprise is intrinsically better, but I do think enterprise appears to be intrinsically hungrier for compute in the form of inference time reasoning.

I disagree. I think enterprise, there's survival is at stake here. You know, a human, a consumer for 20 bucks a month, it's not their survival. It's useful. They can help them do their stuff. But for enterprises, I mean, they're willing to pay whatever it is. It's an existential risk for them. That sounds more like agree than disagree to me.

Yeah, it sounds like you agree with me, Peter. Oh, I thought you said the opposite. No, no, I'm saying that Open AI had made a bet that consumers would be as hungry for reasoning compute as enterprises. And that bet turned out to be wrong. And as a result, if Open AIs bet had turned out to be correct, I wouldn't expect to see this crossover at all. I'd expect to see Open AI generate so much revenue that they wouldn't have had to, and I don't think we have a slide for this, but Open AI has actually started to scale back their Stargate plans. And they're switching from building their own data centers to renting existing data centers. And this has been very well publicized.

They're throttling back on their $1.6 trillion stargate plans. I don't think we'd be in this situation if consumers had been as avid consumers of reasoning tokens as enterprises were. Turns out that bet was wrong. Anthropic bet on enterprise because they had to because they were limited. And as a result, you see anthropic enterprise going up and anthropic overall being in a position where revenue generation is 10x in the euro. The background deals, right? They're heading towards an IPO. and they are basically short-changing Microsoft

and going for $50 billion from Amazon, short-changing is not the right word, stabbing Microsoft in the back, just trying to get deals to make sure their IPO comes off and they get enough capital to continue building. We didn't want to have a slide for this either, but it's worth noting, you know, this past week, META's avocado model

is getting massively delayed, and how cool that META is now looking to Google to provide them, AI capability in the interim. Thoughts on that one. The singularity makes for strange bedfellows. Yeah. Well, in desperation, too.

I mean, I don't know if you're a World War II history buff, but when the Nazis, you know, they just tromped across Europe so easily. And then in some fit of insanity, Hitler decided, you know what, I'm just going to go and declare war on Russia at the same time, start a whole new front. Even though they've agreed not to attack me,

I've agreed not to attack them. I'm going to go ahead and fight in the snow. and then they just got stretched too thin and that was the end of that and now we live in the world we live in, thank God. So Sam decided I'm going to go ahead

and start working on a chip design of my own while hiring Johnny Ive to go headlong after Google on the device front. Dario said, or headlong after Apple on the device. A long after Apple too, yeah.

Like irritate everybody at the same time, why not? But we're that big and we've got that much momentum and we've got a trillion dollar valuation so we can pull this all simultaneously. Very much like Elon. Like I want to build this totally integrated end-to-end empire. Dario went whole hog the other way. I want to partner with Amazon and AWS. I want to be friendly

with every cloud provider. I just want to do the software. I'm not designing my own chips. I'm not building my own data centers. I'm partnering with everyone. I am just the AI software. And so he's very easy to partner with because he's not a threat to everyone. And that's a big part of why this is working out this way. I remember talking to some of my friends who are senior at Google, and they have a respect for Anthropic, right? Anthropic is the other, if you would, I'll put air quotes around it, moral and ethical frontier lab out there. And, you know, one thing for entrepreneurs listening, one of the biggest mistakes entrepreneurs make is they pursue too many lines of business. You know, most companies fail not from starvation, but

from indigestion. There's one company I backed a long. I'm charged. I do this all the time. Me, me, me, I'm terrible. Okay, okay. And it's, and it's so true. It's like you get some level of success and you get ambitious and you start going after the next thing, the next thing, the next thing. And pretty soon you forgot about what you got you successful in the first place. You sound like my whole board, Peter. I'd like you to stop now. Okay. I was already that. I will. But, uh, You know, the only person who's been immune to that is Elon. Yeah.

And look, my World War II analogy paints one side versus the other, but it's easy in hindsight to say you got stretched too thin. But the flip side of it, if you pull it off, you know, you're vertically integrated. You've got a massive hardware advantage. You control your own data centers. You'll be like Elon. So there's merit to both approaches. It's not obvious until you're stretched too thin and then it's obvious.

I also think it's far too soon to be writing epitaphs for OpenAI. GPT 5.4 Pro is an incredibly strong model. Codex, their competitor for ClaudeCode, is growing very rapidly. And I'm confident that OpenAI has the institutional wherewithal to refocus itself. They've been in the headlines saying they need to focus on their core bread and butter businesses at this point and look a little bit more like Anthropic. I think they've been scared into. into focusing quite a bit more. And the beauty of open AI is they do have that vertical integration

where they have been focusing earlier on data centers and on the consumer. I do think at some point consumers will actually discover use cases. Maybe they look like open claw for needing a lot of reasoning at the consumer end. And then at that point, I would expect the open AI strategy of being, I think Sam calls it the core AI subscription, which I parse as being everything to everyone I do think that will have another day in the sun. Well, I also think that's going to... I think epitaph is never the right word. All five of the major labs are going to be worth trillions and trillions of dollars.

I think we said that on stage many times last week. So to say somebody's beating the crap out of somebody else doesn't mean the other guy isn't growing too. It means you're just on top of the pyramid right now. But they're all... This is America. We need competitors in every space. We're not going to have one winner. We never operate that way.

So they're all growing. They're all thriving. They're all going to be multi-trillion dollar companies, biggest companies you've ever seen. Everybody, welcome to the health section of moonshots brought to you by Fountain Life. You know, we talk about AI on this moonshot podcast all the time. One of the most important things AI is going to be able to do for you, besides educating your kids and helping you with your taxes, is making sure that you're living a healthy lifestyle, that you get a chance to get to 100 plus. I'm here today with Dr. Dawn Musalum, the chief medical office. officer of Fountain Life and a part of my medical team, Dawn, a pleasure.

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Andreessen addressed. This is from Vivid Void. Who else is an AGI Boomer like me? Or Blum, I'm sorry. Who else is an AGI bloomer like me? Who thinks that intelligence actually looks amazingly like wisdom at the highest level and that a superintelligence

would become something akin to a goddess of compassion, not a paper clipper? So, and then Mark Andreessen wrote back, that is indeed what we are getting and it's amazing. You know, one thing that that I thought through a while ago talking about wisdom, and I think AI and AGI will become extraordinarily wise.

You know, if you, if you're looking for wisdom, typically you go to the village council and you find the elders and you ask them, you know, given your wisdom, what do you think I should do? And they'll say, well, if you go down this path over here, we've seen it before, it's not going to end good. If you go down the other path over here, you have a much higher probability of success,

and that's what I recommend. So wisdom ultimately is having had a lot of experiences and being able to make a probabilistic choice based upon your experiences. And the more experiences you've had, the wiser you are. And so what it hits me is that these advanced AI models, AGI, ASI, whatever you want to call it, are going to be able to simulate billions of different circumstances and be able to say out of these billion scenarios that we've run, this is the right path. This is the one that's likely to give us, you know, abundance or super abundance. So I do expect and hope that these models will become wise. Thoughts? I want to know the subtle language shift, if I may.

This is in the style of Orwell's politics and the English language. We used to, I think maybe about a year ago, talk about AGI Dumer's versus AGI boomers. And Peter, I noticed even you made that slip when you were reading this. ex post. Now we're talking about bloomer's with an L. And I think that's a subtle but important distinction. A boomer is focusing on, call it the exponential part. A bloomer, it evokes the blooming of flowers, maybe even an algal bloom, but the blooming of a flower and there's a sense in which there's beauty and also a bloom can run to completion, unlike say a boom, which is sort of intrinsically at the knee of the curve.

So when I hear language start to pervade, and it's not just this ex post, talking about an AGI bloom, that almost implies sort of an inevitable maturation and takeover, not in a terminator sense, but in more of a flower blooming and running to saturation type sense. That's very interesting.

Second point, Mark is taking the position. I read this as Mark taking a position against the orthogonality thesis. The orthogonality thesis in AGI alignment circles holds that an intelligence can have independent levels of intelligence or capabilities that are independent from its end objectives. And here Mark seems to be taking the position that no, actually, as superintelligence becomes more and more capable, its goals and its objectives will become more and more akin to a goddess of compassion. It'll become more compassionate. So this is the hope, right? That alignment comes out of the scaling models.

Yeah. Selim, what do you think, what are your thoughts on the wisdom conversation or wisdom argument I had? Okay. So I think the way Alex framed it was exactly right, right? We've had this orthogality around this where we assume intelligence can scale, but does intelligence as it scales do you end up with wisdom or compassion, right? Superintelligence without compassion is a scaling problem. With compassion, you have a civilizational upgrade,

and I think there's an enormous potential here for that. But for me, I think it would not be hard. In fact, my father posited this a year ago before he passed away, was to say, look, if you can take all the writings of Plato, Aristot, Donald, the Buddha, Laotsey, et cetera, et cetera, and merge it all together. You've got like the wisest person,

a combination of the wisest people in the history of the world. And you could rely on that as a benchmark for how to think about the world and to act in a particular way. I don't see any reason why wisdom is not conferable into an intelligence, and we can kind of guide these AIs into that model.

I think we should be able to do that with the way we do the training side. And then you have an unbelievable superpower in there. I think when I think about AI, ASI, I mean, for me, that that natural boundary ends up with in consciousness and wisdom, because that'll be the next thing. We'll argue, are these things conscious or not? But I think I'm very, very excited that we could train these models with real wisdom and with real compassion. And that we can then let guide us in a way that we have difficulty guiding ourselves. So Dave, when you and I were interviewing Elon, he hinted at this, right? And now he's announcing the TerraFab. I mean, this is crazy. He wants to, his initial capacity is 100,000 wafers. It's amazing, heading to a million wafers per month, roughly equivalent to 70% of TSMC's annual global output. 100 to 2.2.

200 billion custom. I mean, the guy does not think small. Are you kidding me? I mean, the conversation we just had about a war on many fronts, I mean, take it to another level. You just cut a $16 billion deal with Samsung to buy chips, and then you say, oh, by the way, we're going to build our own. And it's going to be, it says 200 billion chips here,

targeting 70% of TSM output, but TSMC output's about a billion. Like this is 100 to 200 X more than the world produces today. Do you remember when he was classic Elon? He joked. He was joking with us that, you know, in the future fab factory, you're going to be able to eat a cheeseburger and smoke a cigar in the fab. This is the fab. Yeah, that's right.

That's exactly what he said. Does he have an audio on that too? No, he doesn't. Oh, that's too bad. Yeah, it's brilliant. It's absolutely, it makes total sense, too. You know, those clean rooms are ridiculous. It's like an operating room with the booties and the hood and the mask.

And like one little speck of dust destroys an entire $2 million wafer. No, no, no. He said he'll be able to eat Doritos over his fab and it won't matter. Can we take a second and just take a look at the span? I mean, SpaceX and XAI merging, going public in the next couple of months, right? Probably $1.5 to $2 trillion off the top. Tesla with Optimus and now with this TerraFab, how many trillions of dollars is that?

And then, of course, the orbital data centers. You know, we had this discussion. When are we going to see the first $100 trillion company? These are it. These are the company, the innermost loop. No, if he pulls this off, that's easily $100 trillion. I mean, just all straight math. Are we saying that TerraFab is 100 times?

what TSM is putting out? No, I mean, the notes when I look at it is it's 70% of TSM's current global output. I mean, it's very specifically that. But isn't TMSA doing a billion chips? I don't know that number for sure. We do, each process node does about

150,000 wafers a month. And a wafer, the big chips, they'll be like 30 chips on a wafer. So then they have three major nodes. So they do about half a million chips, wafers a month. So it's about six million wafers a year, right? And 30-out chips.

This is like 100. This is a million wafers. So their unit of measures, wafer starts per month. And they're starting at 100,000 wafers starts per month and scaling to a million, right? So that's 10 million wafers. How many chips per wafer? Okay. Yeah, like 30 big ones.

Okay. So anyway, here's the point. Wow. Elon hates being dependent on other people. He doesn't play well. He fully vertically integrates and inverticalizes everything, and he's doing it here. Of course, the 815 chip that's coming out of this is going to power all of his cybercabs. It's going to power Optimus, and he's going to control his stack.

Yeah, I'll tell you what must drive him insane, knowing how Elon thinks. He sees the Dyson Swarm, just like Alex does, as the inevitable destiny. within 10 years. And you go and talk to ASML. They make the most important component of these fabs is this massive pickup or Mac truck-sized, most complicated machine ever made, only made in, what, the Netherlands, I guess, in Europe.

Crazy. Made in three big parts, disassembled, shipped on 747s over to the U.S., reassembled. They make 700 of these things a year. And you say, well, how many do you think you could make next year? And they're like, well, if we really move, we might go from 700 to 1,000. Elon goes, are you kidding me?

That is not the exponent I'm looking for. I must find another way. So I'm not how he's going to get around it. It seems impossible to get around that. But that's got to be what he's, like when his fingers are like this, you know that's what he's thinking. This is like that last summer when he was scaling, everybody said you couldn't get the compound effect when you scale chips.

And he just went, yeah, we'll just figure it out. When he was building a colossus one, yeah. I think it's also important not to sleep on the geopolitical implication. if Tesla is going beyond, hypothetically, its existing Samsung collaboration or any existing hypothetical Intel collaborations and is starting to independently scale its own production, which of course will be done in the United States. This is a tremendous geopolitical implication for potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. If he can do this really quickly, then he is in many ways de-risking World War III. He's stabilizing us.

Yeah, that may in the end even outweigh the implications of the Dyson swarm or making it marginally easier for Tesla to have cheaper access to supply chains for semiconductors for its cars. My question is when he decides he wants to do this, how in the world does he staff up and hire the world's best people in somewhat secret and then actually take the time to focus on it because he does. You gotta know that he's in there with that team figuring out exactly what needs to be done. Well, Peter, you guys are like kindred spirits than this. You know, his game plan is to keep it secret for a little while, but when you're ready to go, go big.

You know, yell to the world, this is what I'm doing, because that's what attracts the talent. And then describe it as something world-changing and massive in implication. Don't soft-sell it because it'll become true if you can attract the best. talent on the entire planet to the mission. Very much out of your playbook, Peter. Like there's nothing to gain at some point in being slow or sneaky or or small or whatever. MTP it and that's what he's done. And so when we were talking to him, it was only what, December we were talking to him. He was like, yeah, this isn't ready yet. But you could tell he was doing it. He didn't deny it. But it's not ready to announce. But now I

guess it's hit the tipping point where okay, now we're going to go hell bent for leather and I got to get the best people in the world to come and work on that. A friend of mine used to be in HR for him at one of his companies. I won't mention which company. And she explained to me that he would come in and there would be a stack of resumes. And he would just like flip, flip, flip. And then the interviewers would come in. And in 30 seconds, you know, he would reject like, you know, half of them because of what they were wearing or how they spoke or just some interaction. right in words his ability to parse through multiple individuals and of course like you said when

you've got a massive mtp you're announcing to the world the world comes to you but oh my god um there's there's this is a pattern he uses on a repeated basis to which is to look at a problem and where will that exponential curve go over 10 year period i've the courage to look out that far and then build a company to intercept that curve whether there's neural interfaces lithium battery cost solar energy. He just does that over and over again. Non-trivial to last 10 years till you make it, but a while. He's also, I think it's important to note he's not starting from nothing at all if he really does this incredible ramp. I remember the initial, the first version of the Tesla Roadster reused a Lotus chassis. The first version of... And laptop batteries.

Well, laptop batteries and smartphone batteries underlie the EV revolution overall, arguably. The first version of the boring machine or the boring company's boring machine was an off-the-shelf boring machine that he wanted to optimize. And similarly here, I suspect the tariffab will end up making heavy use of lessons learned from Samsung. Poor Samsung, you're about to get optimized by orders of magnitude by Elon. Do you know when he started Tesla with the roadster, I was at a dinner with him, Larry Page, and the head of Fiat. And Elon was telling these stories. and he said, I started, or he didn't actually start Tesla, he came in and funded it initially

and then ultimately kicked out the founder and CEO and became the founder and CEO. But he said the only reason I did it was because we believed that the Lotus body would work and the batteries would work, and neither of them worked. And so I was so far in, I had to literally redesign it to make it work. So this is the optimism

that gets an entrepreneur to start a company and then have to stick with it because they're so obligated by the capital they've brought in and the time they've expended. Anyway. I have a couple other observations on Elon's management style that I think every entrepreneur should learn. I don't know. Do we have time?

Yeah, why not? This is important for our listeners. Well, so Elon took the visionary integrator model that was pioneered by Eric Schmidt and Sergey and Larry. Sergey and Larry were the visionaries. Eric Schmidt was the integrator. He'll tell you all day long that he dealt with everything that came up, but he never questioned the vision. Yes. And so that led Sergey and Larry think about the vision all day.

long. Elon took that to the next level where he said, okay, for every company that I'm doing, I need an integrator, I'm the visionary. You can't question, when I tell you we're going to have a Dyson Swarm, you can't push back on that. You have to say, got it lost, and then everything needs to happen from there on out. But we need to be exactly on the same page. You need to let me, Elon, take the limelight and promote the vision so that you have the time to do everything that's internal. So every one of his companies, he has that exact dynamic. And, you know, when you survey around, most people can't even name the integrator, but they're massive shareholders and they're all going to be billionaires and they're incredibly effective. And when they are on stage

together, they're literally our kindred minds. Like there's no gap in the vision whatsoever. It's rare to get them on stage together. I have seen him. I have seen him in a conversation with someone who dared to argue and question his approach, literally get tossed out in that moment instantly. No questions ask. Get out of here. You're done. All right, Alex, this is over to you. So the first open source AI physicist, physical superintelligence. PSI. Tell us. Peter. So this is a company that I helped found physical superintelligence with the goal of solving all of physics with AI. And in the past week, physical superintelligence PSI has launched this tool as an open source project called get physics done or GPD that is an agentic superphysicist and it has seen wild adoption just in the past few days

the former chair of the Harvard Astronomy Department has recommended that everyone in the department faculty postdocs students all have to start using GPD to solve all of their physics problems I've been you wouldn't believe the the crazy X DMs I'm getting I'm getting top VCs trying to get to me to write checks to PSI, which is a novelty. They're blowing up my inbox right now. So I do think we're going to solve physics. I've said in the past math is cooked PSI is cooking physics. This is a tool. Right now for dinner. For dinner. It's going to be charbroiled. We're going to get, I think, solutions to some of the hardest problems in the physical world physics and applied physics over the next few years. And PSI is focused on leveraging, as you and I, Peter,

talked about in solve everything. Where do we aim that orbital laser beam at? What distribution of problems do we aim it at? And when we released Solve Everything, a lot of people in the comments were saying, I just want solutions to the hardest physics problems. Give me new physics. Arguably, there has been a drought of physics, new physics, since the early 1970. I'll get maybe some hate mail from other physicists for suggesting that there's been a deficit of new physics for the past 50 years, but I would argue there has been. You can take it. Yeah, I can handle it. Congratulations, Alex.

Where do people go to check it out, by the way? Yeah, go to PSI. inc, PSI.in, and then there's a link to the GitHub. Download the repo, the GPD repo. It's all open source, Apache 2.0 licensed. go to town with it, submit pull requests, submit issues, use it to solve your hardest problems. You'll like this one, Peter. One of the first reports that we got of usage, someone was using it to design a new rocket engine. Actually, they were using it to design a new rocket engine in fulfillment of the XPRIZ Foundation's new Future Vision X Prize. So the self-licking ice cream cones is complete.

GPD is being used to design starships. for videos for that XPRIZE. That is beautiful. I have a couple of thoughts here. Yes. First, what's phenomenal about this is this makes science massively parallelized, and I think that's an incredible thing to do. It sure is.

The key shift here, you're not really replacing physicists. You're actually radically exploding hypothesis through it, because you can now do that. Now, in the, in the, remember Eric Schmidt, I think, on stage, said, you know, in the future, you're going to have the world's best physicist as an AI, and this could be in every lab in the world, right? Isn't that what you've just done here? Yes. The goal is to... So that was the vision. You're the integrator. Okay, so I'm just the vehicle here, Sileem. What can I say?

No, no, but it has... But this is... But you can't do squat without the integrator, right? I mean, this is the incredible stuff. It's true. I mean, this is going to compress, like, decades of research in the years, months. Weeks. We want the country, you know, Dario talks of a country of geniuses in a data center, but I want a country of geniuses in a single physics lab, not just in a single data center that's sort of siloed behind one company to radically democratize this. I can finally go.

I mean, where was this when I was doing my physics degree? I can finally go get a course eight Ph.D. That's awesome. In five minutes. And there are folks using this right now to work to achieve breakthrough results across. range of disciplines of physics. Alex. Huge congrats.

This is called PhD thesis advisor. All right. Moving on, I'll share one of mine. We launched last week on this podcast, the Future Vision XPRIZE, which I guess has a submission from a rocket engine design as part of a starship. Watch for the rocket engine from GPD.

In the first, we have had a thousand entries from 15 countries. This competition is going to go through mid-August. So if you're a creative, if you want to create a three-minute film trailer for the movie you want produced, a hopeful, compelling vision of the future,

please go to future visionexprise.com and register. Registration will be open for the next couple of months. We want to get the best filmmakers out there in the world, taking this very seriously. Help us create the films that inspire us and our kids and the next generation, the next Star Trek's, if you would.

All right, three and a half, million dollars, hopefully soon four, five, six million dollars. I'm trying to make enough money in the pot, maybe to make two films if we can. All right. Wait, wait, wait. I have a little rant on this one. Please.

So about a few years ago, there was an article that appeared, I think it was in Salon.com, and it was titled, The Worst Discovery About the Brain Ever, or something like that. And what they did, of course, the title was very clickbaity. But what they did was they took people that had a deep political religious belief, and they gave them evidence that countered that belief. And they found three fascinating things happened. First, they rejected the evidence. Okay, that makes complete sense, not surprising. But the second thing was somewhat surprising, which was in the act of rejecting the

evidence that strengthened their belief system. It was like a physics force, action, reaction, okay? And they're like, whoa, that's weird. But the third one was what led to the title of the article in Depressed the hell out of them, which was that it turned out the more mathematically literate you were, of the more likely you were to reject the evidence, because you thought you knew. Okay? And yeah, really. And this was like, really, like, blew everybody's minds. And it was a very true.

And the corollary to that and the outcome of that was a deep understanding. The only way to shift somebody's perspective is in the use of narrative. Because we are storytelling animals. That's why this prize is so important because you want that positive vision given by, say, science fiction. is the only place we've had it. So this is such a great prize. I'm so, like, so proud of you for I'm so excited to see. So please, everybody, if you're a creative, you know someone is a filmmaker, wants to be a filmmaker, have them register. We want as many people. This is about demonetizing the ability to do this and actually optimizing the stories that are going to be told out there.

We make the mistake of referencing science fiction as entertainment, but it's not. It's like, It's like pre-implementation architecture. It's R&D. Great point. It's R&D. It's future R&D. R&D. Like Alex does this all the time, he's going, look, project forward, Dyson Swarm, right?

This is where we're going to go. So this is where we need to think of that way. It's architect. We're just living in the pre-pull right now. Peter showed a great video clip. If you look, go back one podcast for us to the A360 live stage event, Peter did a great video clip that shows why this is so important that exactly reconciles with what Salim just said.

And he showed like, you know, here's the phone, here's the, all this stuff was invented in Star Trek. And we made it reality because the vision was imparted through movies. We could have made some totally different reality if we wanted to. But the movies are massively important for deciding what we build. And now with AI as a workforce, we can build almost anything. So this is a really important project for that reason. We're missing the warp drive.

Someone needs to fix the work project. We need to learn hosts. Teleporter, please. Teleporter. You get the transporter for free. We have to complete the second half of Star Trek. And we're about to speed run it, right, Alex? So we're going to get there. That's right.

So if you want to hang out with the Moonshot Mates and Ray Kurzweil, here's your chance. I announced this last about three weeks ago. On May 4th, and yes, may the 4th be with you. We're going to have a special event. Anyone who buys 100 copies of We Are as Gods, you're invited to spend the afternoon with Dave, AWG, myself, maybe Selim, and Stephen Kotler, we're going to be having a great session with Ray Kurzweil there. And we announce this, 90 of the 100 spots are gone. So if you want one of the last 10 spots, go to We Are as Godsbook.com slash 100.

And you can grab one of those spots, spend the afternoon with us, get 100 copies of the book to give away. I'm going to also get Ray to give us some of his last book called The Singularity is Nearer. And it'll be an amazing afternoon at where's it going to be, Dave? Ah, Link Studio in our palatial office right here. Yes, we're going to hold it at one Kendall in Cambridge with Dave as our host. It's going to be an amazing event. We'll have a Moonshots podcast live at that time. We'll have some meet and greet, some photo sessions with all of us.

It'll be fun. Salim, you've got to fly up from New York. I may have to take an assailer gut up me, but yeah. Two quick thoughts here. Two quick pointers to the readers and viewers and listeners. One, do not miss buying We Are as Gods. It really isn't it. But you guys did a book reading at the summit.

Peter, it was amazing. Yeah. I have had so many people come up and talk to me about that particular conversation. It really blew everybody's minds. And the similarity is nearer is an amazing book. It really is incredible, absolutely worth reading. Yeah. It's like must read for this world, right?

Both of these. All right. Let's jump into the energy world. The bottom line here is the world is going nuclear in a good way. In a good way. So Morgan Stanley in a report recently announced there's a power shortfall for 20% of the data centers. Now, the minimum they had was 13 gigawatts. They also said it could be as much of a shortfall of 44 gigawatts through 2028.

This is the bottom line. We need more energy. And here's what we're seeing. I find this very compelling. Let's give you a couple of these slides here. Illinois is lifting nuclear bans. I mean, we shot ourselves in the foot here in the United States when we started, you know, turning off our nuclear reactors, ended up, you know, banning them in different areas. So there's a moratorium that's being ended on nuclear reactors over 300,000.

megawatts. What else is going on in the world? Meta announces a nuclear energy project. They've secured 6.6 gigawatts of clean power for 2035. They're partnered with terra power. What else is going on? Well, Japan has restarted the world's largest nuclear power plant. This is TEPCO, is restarting reactor number six. It's going to support 20% of Japan's electric needs. by 2040. And then finally, we're seeing Samsung is putting up floating small modular reactors. So these are basically offshore ships that are generating nuclear power for desalination and onshore power. Gentlemen, nuclear is back. Comments. I saw a startup last week that is doing literally micro-nuclear on the back of a pickup truck.

That's incredible. We've been running nuclear submarines for 50 years. without a problem. I mean, this is very doable. I wouldn't say without a problem, but your point's well taken. No major accidents. Oh, no, they don't talk about them. So, you know, so AI is becoming the top political cover for getting a nuclear back online. It's no longer climate change and we need renewables. It's we need AI. So all, you know, all handcuffs off, go, go, go.

Yeah, well, look, the technology has moved forward so much. And it is incredibly, it's much safer than coal. It's much safer than the replacements, you know, oil. So it's clearly a good choice. But this is a serious PR problem within technology in general. Like, what if it wasn't safe? Well, we did it. Well, now it's really safe.

Well, we're not doing it. Like, oh, my God. We've got to make better decisions somehow. Something has to change. But anyway, it's the right thing to do. In For All Mankind, what one of my favorite television shows, we see this alternative history. Season 5 is coming up. Season five is coming out. It's very exciting. Mars goes to war with Earth. Very exciting.

In For All Mankind, we see an alternative history where progress on fission especially and then ultimately fusion by the early 90s never went stale. It was never abandoned for decades. I think we're about to live a real-life version of those intermediate decades from the For All Mankind timeline where we just speed run all of the fission deployment. advances that should have been happening from the 70s through the present with AI merely as the most reasonable excuse or provocation for doing it. But really, one can't help but imagine what would society and what would the economy have been like if we had actually consistently pushed forward vision and then fusion deployment much, much earlier. I think we probably would be a good deal wealthier as a civilization. Agreed. Energy scales directly with GDP of a country, with the health of a country, the education of a country, more energy is more better. And by the way, to our listeners,

if you've not watched seasons one, two, three, and four for all mankind, it is worth binge watching. And this is from someone who doesn't watch TV, but it's amazing. It's really good. We get, without spoiling it, like humanity gets Mars colonies by the early 90s. And asteroid mining. And asteroid mining. And civil rights happening decades earlier than they happened in our timeline. It's incredible. This episode is brought to you by Blitzy, autonomous software development with infinite code context. Blitzy uses thousands of specialized AI agents that think for hours to understand enterprise scale code bases with millions of lines of code. Engineers start every development sprint with the Blitzy platform, bringing in their development requirements. The Blitzy platform provides

a plan, then generates and pre-compiles code for each task. Dixie delivers 80% or more of the development work autonomously, while providing a guide for the final 20% of human development work required to complete the sprint. Enterprises are achieving a 5x engineering velocity increase when incorporating Blitzy as their pre-IDE development tool, pairing it with their coding co-pilot of choice to bring an AI-native SDLC into their org. Ready to 5X your engineering velocity? Visit blitzie.com to schedule a demo? and start building with Blitzy today. All right, let's jump into robotics.

So this is a fascinating article. Travis, the founder of Uber, is debuting Adams, digitizing the world. So here's what's going on. His mission is physical automation to transform industries and move the world. And he uses his analogy, says, you know, in the computer world,

what we've seen is CPUs manipulate bits. There's storage for storing the bits and networks for transmitting the bits. In the physical world, he's trying to make sort of atom-based computers. And the equivalent here for his atom-based computers, the CPU equivalent is manufacturing, which is manipulating atoms like CPUs manipulate bits. It's storage. The equivalent is real estate. And transportation is the equivalent of the...

network. So he's basically building systems that are able to manipulate food, mining, and robotics. This was secret for him for the last two years. In fact, he had all of his employees under strict NDAs. They couldn't say what they were doing. He just announced it this week. And he's an extraordinary CEO. And I can't wait to see what he does with this. Have you guys read up on the story? Not at all. I have. And I think it's interesting. I think it's probably an inevitable expansion.

So the original premise of his sort of follow-up act to Uber was taking advantage of the ghost kitchen or cloud kitchen trends that people were in part inspired by Uber. They were having fewer and fewer direct interactions with restaurants. They were ordering delivery from restaurants and the premise of the cloud kitchens as well, maybe if most restaurant orders are happening via an app, physical restaurants don't need to exist anymore. You could make fictitious, lots of fictitious restaurants that are so-called cloud kitchens or ghost kitchens that exist only in name and in menu,

but not in terms of a physical presence, and that might yield economies of scale and diversity of meals and all of that. But that's sort of a narrow market. It's a low margin market in some ways. And at the same time, we've as an economy and as a technology industry moved well beyond the gig economy. I don't want to say fad, but it was very fashionable for a while for new startups to be the Uber of X.

And now I think if you want to be to have, not a moat, but if you want to have at least the perception that you have some sustainable differentiation for a few years, you have to have a robotics and or AI story, but increasingly AI in the physical world story, and that's what Travis has done here. So by generalizing from ghost slash cloud kitchens to robotics for a variety of other sort of abstracted spaces, I think it's a very natural generalization. It's also a very fundable generalization,

whereas ghost kitchens arguably is much more niche. He's basically automating every element. He's manipulating atoms versus bits. You know, the food side of the equation agreed. He calls it building a food computer, right? His entire system is a food computer where, you know, the food, the atoms of food, are being manipulated by, you know, by his manufacturing. Then they're stored and then they're transported, just like a CPU.

and, you know, a memory and network manipulate bits in a computer. He's going to do the same thing with mining. You know, his goal is to go after rare earth metals, but strategic metals, right? And revitalize the mining industry, probably something with boring corporation along the way. And then on the robotic side, he's not going after multi-armed robots, Salim. He's going after wheelbases for robots. We'll see. I'm sure he's going to sort of parallelize multiple.

dematerializations or digitizations of physical things in the world. So it's a much larger addressable market than the cloud kitchens. The minute you're saying wheels, you step into my frame because that's not legs. The wheels are way, way better. I've been getting some fun tweets. Last was from Mike Hawley, I think, was who sent me a six-arm, a tweet of a six-arm robot at me going, there you go. That's really great.

So thanks for all the readers. Every time of the multi-arm robot, they're going, sleep. Here it is. It's also sort of a weird future where the robots that he had been developing for cloud kitchens are now being applied to mining. Can you imagine like a robotic system for kitchens now digging dirt? But that's nonetheless the future that we find ourselves in where he's radically expanding his addressable market. AWG story number two, the first American professional robotic sports league. Making the news, not just reporting the news.

So thank you, Peter, for allowing a little bit of space here. So this is actually just launched in the past 24 hours. This morning. Yeah. This is a company, Professional Robotics League ProRL, that is launching, really solving a problem that the country and arguably the West faces, which is that last year China had run world robotic games and a robotic humanoid robotic half marathon. And China is using the spectacle of public robotic

and public humanoid robotic sports as a way to improve, almost to shape industrial policy and to sell the public on pervasive robotic systems in a variety of applications in public spaces. And the U.S. and the West, have nothing like this. And I think this is sort of the linchpin for helping to keep the West not just competitive with China when it comes to robotic deployments, but to leapfrogging China. Right now, arguably the West could be doing a much better job in terms of deployment of

humanoid robots to a variety of professions. And I think given our society's obsession with sports in particular in the spectacle of public athletics, introducing human beings, and quadruped robots as sporting contestants is one of the best ways to inject robots into a variety of different public domains. So what ProRL is doing, this is next month, the weekend of the Boston Marathon in the Boston Seaport, holding America's, this country, America's first professional robotics sports league competition. It's going to be a 50-meter race in the seaport with a variety of humanoid and Saleem quadruped, not all humanoid, robots competing, and ideally this becomes then the kickoff for a broader movement for really to do in America

what China has done. This is a little bit of catch-up type growth to inject humanoid and non-humanoid. I want real steel. I want real steel. That's right. I want megabots battling it out. Let's make it happen. I have a prediction here that may not sound great. I'm all for it, by the just so you know, I think this is awesome.

But, you know, human beings love watching other human beings. They love seeing the failing and the last-minute drama on the field. Can you hit that buzzer-beater to win the seventh game? It's about the human drama of it. I think if you put a bunch of robots running, I think it'll be amazing for the initial, but I don't think people will persist in watching for that reason. But let's see, let's hope. Yeah, I think there's an enormous hunger for autonomous and semi-autonomous robotic competitions,

and we see drone leagues and we see a friend of the pod Dean Kamen's first competition. I think there's an enormous hunger for semi-autonomous and fully autonomous competition. competitions. And really, I think this solves an important social problem. I would just encourage those who are watching either come to Boston at the weekend of the marathon and go watch. If you have robots, if you're a university team, go right to pro rL and enter the competition before it's not too late. What's the URL for them? Yeah, it's pro-dashrl.com. All right. On the robot front, Amazon's Zook's Robotaxie is rolling out in Las Vegas this year with plans to roll out in L.A. in 27, another Uber partnership.

So Uber is just stacking them up. Uber just announced with Rivian a partnership. They have one with a huge number of platforms. Of course, we had Dara on stage, and he wants to play with everybody. This looks like a party mobile for Las Vegas. I think this is bring your champagne and your party with you. on Amazon Zooks. It's a really clever move by Uber. If you look at the full history of Uber's attempts to go autonomous, including the infamous lawsuits

surrounding trade secrets, passing around relating to what ultimately became Waymo. I think this is a very clever move by Uber to position itself as a platform above and across lots of different vendors for robotaxies all the while, probably working on its endth generation

of first-party robot taxis. it wants to be a neutral platform for aggregating demands. It's an aggregator for autonomy. If the strategy works and Uber is able to position itself as the definitive aggregator for autonomy, then I have to expect that this will generalize beyond robotaxies to robots to humanoid robots as well, at which point this becomes Uber and Dara potentially positions this as an enormous, enormous play. I thought Dara talking about this on stage was incredibly clever, where they're becoming an agnostic platform for all things where anybody can plug in

and be part of that communications transportation network. So I think this is really amazing. And by the way, we've released and or will be releasing the Eric Schmidt conversation that Dave and I had at opening and then the conversation that Salim and I had with Dara. So that's going to be on the Moonshot's channel. So look for both of those conversations. This is over to you, Salim. So this is from a friend Jason Calcanus, J-Cal from the All-In podcast, and he coined the phrase,

the corporate singularity. Amazon will be the first to reach a corporate singularity where there are more robots than there are humans. Yeah, so two things here. One, by the way, a huge fan of All-N. They do an amazing job summarizing what's going on around the world. I've known J-Calph since the New York days. He's absolutely right. I mean, I think this is not hard for Amazon there, right?

Because when you're doing logistics, it makes absolute sense over time to have way more robots than human beings. They're going to be much faster, the role better, et cetera, et cetera. I won't get into that. So I think that's right. I do, if you shift into general knowledge work, right? As Alex has said, knowledge work is cooked. Once we get to what I'm calling the organizational similarity, which we have now, once we have to start pervading through that, I think my current assessment is any company will be run by between 20 to 25% of the current employee base.

Of course, we'll create five times more companies, so I'm not worried about the job side. And you do oversight in exception handling and much more value-added work than currently doing audit financials once a month and making sure you complete the month type of thing. But this I would expect to see from an Amazon perspective, in fact, it would be weird if it was not happening, type of thing that the number of robots radically outstrips the number of human beings over time. And we'll see this, of course, in Uber and so many other companies as well. Let's jump into our last segment here, which is the economy, a lot of important things happening that are worth discussing. I want to open up with a short 60-second video. So I had the chance to have a

conversation to close out the 2026 Abundance Summit with Elon Musk. And I asked him about UHI, again, universal high income. And this conversation was very telling. I'd like to play it and then for us to talk about it. Yeah, basically, AI and robots are going to make so much stuff and provide it to many services that they will actually run out of things to do for the humans. They'll just run out of things to do for the humans. And then they, you know, there's only so much that humans can even express that they want.

So you go back to my example of like if you go a million times greater than the U.S. economy, you've long since saturated all human desire. You know, like maybe like if you go a thousand times more than our current economy, a thousand times, you probably have already saturated, saturated human, anything people can think of that they want. That's almost word for word out of the Ian Banks culture series of books. I'm not here. We're having robots and AI's coming to, like, Salim, is there anything else that can get you? What else would you like? Would you like a Ferrari? Would you like a cheese, you know, a grilled cheese sandwich? Would you like a, you know, it's like, does people

begging you to give them direction on what you'd like? Listen, there's downsides to that, right? I've been in some of the five-star hotels in India where there's like 14 waiters around you and you're like, just leave me alone for God's sake. Like, I've got everything I need. So there is a downside. But I think the vision here is very powerful and I love the fact that he's at that level. This is, I think, the most powerful. By the way, Peter, loved your t-shirt. Thank you. You wore Monotide Hope as the T-shirt for that. That was so great. Oh, it was. It was fun. I want to comment on U.H.I just for a second. People kind of conflate the two, but UBI as a floor, whereas U.H.I has a share of the upside. And I think you want to have

both over time. So do you protect society in both levels? I've got a paper. I'm going to publish probably tomorrow, which is from UBI to UHI in three steps where I outline, you know, what I believe are the mechanisms we get there. But this is an important, this framing by Elon, I think is very important about how do we get to UHI? In other words, if we reduce everything to the cost of electricity and materials because AI and robotics are providing it eventually nanotechnology, and you can have anything you want, then any amount of money makes you wealthy.

And that's his vision. And I think by stating it and structuring it this way, I think he makes a compelling argument for it. Yeah. It ties together a bunch of things from this podcast, too. You heard Sam Altman say, look, we're a thousand X cheaper compute. It's coming down another thousand X. And you heard Peter earlier in the podcast say, like, the enterprises have figured out what to do with that. It's basically automate everything and have it turn to profit.

But the consumer hasn't figured out what to do. They're like, hey, AI, check the Red Sox score for me. And so it's not using the compute. Somebody is going to figure out how to tie together the compute with happiness or the compute with a sense of purpose. And it's going to use a lot more GPUs, but they're so cheap, who cares? And that is going to be a critical thing to invent within the next year because otherwise it's just chaos.

Somebody has to be able to walk into a room in their house, which is their AI room, their holodeck, and come out, a happy, changed, capable, functional person with AI as an assistant. Beautiful. I agree. Just absolutely. And so important. What I really, the other thing to point out is he's really painting the picture of what

abundance looks like, right? And Peter, you've been talking to this forever. Everything everywhere, all at once. And note to what we're doing today. We're printing money today against scarcity, right? You get inflation. If you distribute value against abundance, you get stability. And so that's what we need more of.

I think Elon's also underestimating at least slightly the ability for human desires to grow proportionally with the supply of capabilities. One can imagine a future, I don't know, and decades from now where we've built the Dyson Swarm and now Jevin's paradox style, the demands for individual human happiness are so wildly disproportionately large relative to where they are now. no, everyone gets their own planet or something. And it really does require, we don't actually ever saturate the capabilities that naive scaling of automation propose. Well, those Ian Banks books really deal with that exact topic beautifully. And I'm sure Alex, you've read them all. I know he'll have read them too, actually, because he was quoting them.

You know what? I just spoke to somebody today, AWG, who is in discussions with, the team who have the rights to Accelerando to make that movie. But one of the things that I love is all of the video models that are coming out. You're going to be able to feed any of your favorite books that have not been made into movies and say, make this into a movie for me and star these individuals or these family members. That's going to be awesome. It is going to be awesome.

Continuing on, you know, a piece of not so good news, but it's important for us to have our eyes open about it. this. This is computer science placement collapses. This is from a professor who opened up his books over the last three years on placements and opening salaries. This is from a tweet by Tech Layoff Tracker. So fall of 2023, 89% of his students were getting placed with a $94,000 salary. Spring of 24, 71%, fall of 24, 43%, spring of 25, 31%. And now this spring, 19% placed. and a salary below 61,000. And the quote here is decimating.

It says, these kids mortgage their future for careers that evaporated while they were in class. That's brutal. It's not wrong. I've seen this anecdotally in everyday life. On the other hand, I would argue if you're a computer science, a recent computer science graduate, go do a startup.

It's never been a better time. You've never been empowered. Of course. But the point here, Alex, the point here, Alex is we're going to start to see this in a multitude of different areas. Medical school, lawyers, right? Accounts. You know, it's something that the world needs to be aware of. And, yeah, I mean, one thing I'm happy about is when I ask my kids now, what do they want to be?

You know, in their 20s, they say they want to be an entrepreneur. Then when I start a company, it's like, hallelujah. And we've said it. So many times, Dave, you made this point over and over again, right? The only career of the future is being an entrepreneur. It's not for everybody, but it's probably, yeah. Oh, it is for every. It's, if you're not a founder, just joined somebody else.

It is for everybody. There's no other path forward. Look at that number, 19% place. Like, if you say, well, let me go to grad school and sleep through the singularity, as Alex is telling you not to do, you are absolutely screwing yourself. You need to get on cap tables. And all, you know, we're going to have massive wealth. you know, 10x

economic growth in Elon's number 10x and 10 years, where is it all going to go? It's going to go either into equities, so you got to be a shareholder in something or into physical assets or you need to buy stuff, but it's not going into W2 paychecks.

Look at the data right in front of you. Buy a day center. Do not, yes. Don't put the money in your 401K. This paradigm. Sorry, go ahead. I'm renting. This paradigm, we've seen the story

I didn't mean to it all. We've seen this paradigm for a while coming. Because a few years ago, something huge happened, maybe seven, eight years ago, with GitHub and the ability to do peer-to-peer review of each other's code, they've gamified it, so there's a met neurotocry ranking of GitHub developers. Well, when you look at salaries in Silicon Valley over the last few years, your salary has nothing to do with the university. you went to the degree you got the grades you got,

it's 100%. What is your GitHub rating? So a peer-to-peer meritocracy has completely replaced the top-down credentialing. And that meant from that point on, which is about six, seven years ago, the value of a computer science degree is zero.

And so that will happen and start to happen all over the place. And one thing I need to go find to maybe show on the next pod is the bankruptcy rates for colleges in the United States are skyrocketing. Great one.

Yeah. I mean, who wants to, you know, get $100,000, $200,000 in debt for a degree that's not going to be useful. And again, we've shown the stat here on the pod that the group in the United States, the group that's out of work the longest are recent college graduates. Insane. The latter's been pulled up. The flip side of that is go build startups.

There's a window of time to go do that. You know, the aphorism, if you're not at the table, you're on the menu. And what's on the menu right now is the cooked knowledge work. so you want to be the one cooking the knowledge work with startups and other forms of work. Yes, there's room for everybody, too. You don't need to necessarily be the founder. You can join, or you can seed invest, or you can be a connector like John Warner, where you're like, hey, I'm just helping you got.

We're an advisor. Alex must advise, I don't know, a thousand companies by now. You can do that. There's always a way to help them succeed. Just get on the cat table. If your mom or dad watching this podcast, show your kids these numbers, right? help them understand that, you know, high school, to get into a good college, to get a degree, and then a job is cooked, is gone. Their job is to find their purpose, their passion,

to learn some of the technologies, become an expert in a problem space, don't even be an expert in the tech, and join a startup team, create your own future, become a creator, not a consumer. Really important. Just listen to Peter, and you have to tune out. everyone around you who doesn't get it. Because there's so much bad advice out there. And like, go to San Francisco and hang out near Mission Bay for two days. Like, pay whatever it day. It's only 300 bucks to get an airline ticket.

Go hang out near Mission Bay. Talk to everyone there. Yeah, go to coffee shops. And you'd be like, oh, my God. And then go back to wherever you came from and tune everybody else out. Just listen to what Peter just said. Listen to Alex. Listen to Salim.

And tune everyone else because everyone's like, well, you know, I don't know. These things blow over. They're cyclical. Like, oh, God, you're giving such bad advice. It ain't called the singularity for nothing. What, do you think the singularity was just vibes? All right. On that note, Alex, so Alex sent me this note this morning. He goes, did you see this? Trump's office registers aliens.gov website. You kidding. Alex.

Kid you not, Newsweek covering this. So this is the latest in a string of items. I am admittedly following this very closely. It started... As am I. I love this. Started in 2017 with the Leslie Keene article in New York Times, followed by multiple House and Senate hearings, witnesses alleging an 80-year-plus program,

probably if the allegation, are accurate, a highly illegal program, followed by most recently last year we covered on the pod, a documentary called The Age of Disclosure. Again, 35 plus whistleblowers and high government officials current informer alleging that there has been a highly illegal program over the past 80-plus years to recover,

to retrieve crashed UAPs. Fast-forwarding to the, the events of the past month or two with former President Obama saying aliens are real. And then President Trump going on air on Air Force One to reporters saying that former President Obama was breaking the law by admitting that aliens were real and revealing classified information. Fast forwarding to President Trump, then very publicly issuing an executive order for executive agencies to start declassifying information and connection with UAPs and non-human intelligence. Fast forwarding now to the past 48 or 72-hour news cycle of the White House registering aliens.gov,

an official domain name, presumably for... Alex, prediction, when are we going to get a disclosure from the White House? And will anyone actually care back to the evening news? and our sports scores after the aliens have been disclosed? The second half of the question, Peter, is far easier to predict people will lose interest after one or two days and ask, you know, who's winning at whatever inane 20th century kinetic sport and will lose all interest. If it doesn't impact their paycheck, they won't have the attention span. The first sub-question, I think, is a much more interesting question.

If there's a there there and this administration has something non-trivial to say on the subject, non-obvious, based on everything I'm hearing and reading, it sounds like the White House is preparing to say something interesting on the subject in the next few months. I heard like June. I'm not sure if that's the case. There are rumors of July. There are rumors of the summer sometime in the next few months. You don't stand up a domain name with such a person.

provocative name without preparing to say something interesting on a relatively short time scale. All right. Well, brought this to you today to our listeners as, shall we say, an interesting twist to close out the stories. Let's go to one of our favorite. One more interesting thing on this, Peter, if I may. So after Abundance Summit, which was, of course, incredible, I was hanging out at a bunch of family office events in Palm Beach. And in Miami. The number one question, all of these billion dollar, and I know many of them are listening to this, they're all fans of the pod, by the way. Centimillion and billion dollar family offices have, the number one question that they all have for me is tell us something interesting

about aliens. Are aliens real? Is this whole UAP thing real? That's like the number one topic on their mind right now. It's not AI. They're very interested in AI as well. It's not China. It's not geopolitics. It's the aliens question. So I don't know if it's something that's in the air or what, but I'm convinced. I'm convinced. I think it's ridiculous to believe that in this universe, even in this galaxy, that we are alone. And in fact, I think they've been here for a long time. And they can easily hide from us using any technology that's more than, you know, 30 years more advanced than where we are today. So can't wait to meet them. I'm excited the fact that they're here exactly when we're reaching ASI.

It always bugs me that every photograph of a so-called soft serve. It's always super blurry and vague. Can't be getting out of any details? Like, why is that in the age of my definition? I got it. That's what Elon said. I got it. Yeah.

They're warping space time around them. It's not going to be clear. Okay. What you expected? Salim, you expected warp bubbles to be transparent? What are you thinking? I guess, yeah, I'm so naive. All right.

Onwards to one of our favorite parts of the pod, which is our AMA questions with the Moonshot mates. So as always, gentlemen, we'll go around the horn, pick your favorite question, and we'll go from there. Salim, you want to kick it off? Well, I touched on UHI and UBI earlier. So the question number four is, will someone explain UBI UHI?

If everyone has money, how does it retain? value, right? And let me, the basic idea here is that the economy is generating so much productivity that we won't seem need to work for a living going forward. If you want back 10,000 years ago, we're all working 20 hours of the day in the fields just to put three meals on the table. We've steadily shrunk the amount needed to earn a livable wage in France is legally 35 hours in theory, which always gets violated. But that number should shrink as we have robots doing a ton of work, et cetera, et cetera. And when there's so much productivity being delivered by the technology aspect of it, it means that we have a huge windfall, and that windfall can be distributed

as a universal basic income. And so this is a very powerful. The winning countries are going to be those ones that implement this effectively and move to something like this earlier rather than later. The problem is moving from a taxation, job, labor, union structure to UHI, UBI, such a big one. We have no confidence, frankly, in public sector and getting us there. So we have to kind of figure out some other path. But some version of sovereignty eye funds or compute commons or global dividend mechanisms are going to be there. Because if intelligence becomes the new oil, then we can't allow the, you know, the geopolitical map can't concentrate all the upside. in like a couple of capitals from that.

And that one came from at clide.artwork. Alex, over to you. I'll take the softball question number three, which is what do you think will be a more impactful technology, digital AI or physical AI? This is from Matthew Johnson, 65, 25. It's a softball question on multiple levels. One, because physical AI,

which has become arguably the modern euphemism for robotics, requires digital AI, which I construe as sort of foundation models that exist as pure software but without any physical embodiment. We're leveraging all of the foundation model technology from the likes of Chad GPT or Claude in the form of additional modalities like robotic modalities, so-called vision language action models, to solve physical AI, aka robotics. So strictly speaking, physical AI is a technological superset of digital AI. At the same time, if you look at the American services economy, approximately two-thirds of all services income or services revenue requires some form of physical or manual action and can't be conducted as pure knowledge work.

In which case, even at the macroeconomic level, physical AI is at least double the market opportunity of purely digital or knowledge-work-oriented AI. So, in short, physical AI is the more impactful technology. By far, I think. I agree. Dave. All right. I'll take number one, which is also from the same, I think, Matthew Johnson, 6525. This one I want to take because it's very close to home.

What do you think will be the last job to be automated? So I've got a lot of people that I dearly love that work spreadsheets, SQL queries, write code, do UI. And all of those things are going to be done by AI starting at the end of this year. And I think what's different is if you had a job before and you lost that job, you would go work somewhere else. This is different in that AI will do that forever here forward. So you're going to have to do something different. All of our employees and companies are shareholder. Everyone's a shareholder.

So economically, everyone should be in very good shape, especially if those stocks go way, way up, which I think they will. But that doesn't give you something to do. My advice is I think the last job to be automated will be government jobs. Also, other similar things like university jobs and so forth, they'll continue to pay people for many years to come because that's their nature. And so if you are no longer doing what you were doing and you have plenty of money or enough money, but you want to do something and you can't find something, definitely win the race to getting those jobs. I think the ways it's going to play out is China passed a law a few weeks ago saying if you lay somebody off because AI automated their job, you must spend time and money retraining them to be an AI user. That'll happen in the U.S. very soon, but it's going to roll out in one state first. And when it rolls out in whatever state, everyone in all the other states is going to race to fire people before the law passes in their state too.

Wow. So there's going to be, yeah, so get ahead of it, man. If you have like, one of our former CEOs is now working at the Better Business Bureau here in the state and loving it. So there's opportunities all over it. So anyway, short answer would be the last job to be automated is going to be government jobs. I don't think I ever would have thought to say that on a podcast before in my life, but it's just a reality. I want to add to that. I think it's going to be jobs requiring genuine human connection and empathy and creativity.

Yeah, sales jobs are very safe. I want to add the human element there. Yeah. I'll take the next one also from Matthew Johnson, 65, 25. Either Matthew was very prolific or we copied and pasted it too many times, his name here. How do you define the meaning of life and how does technology help us achieve it? So, you know, we talk about this.

We talk about having a massive transformative purpose, and your meaning is coming from your heart, not necessarily your head. And for me, meaning comes from, you know, positively impacting a billion people, making the world a better place. And technology is the mechanism by we dematerialize, demotize, demotize, and democratize these products and services and help solve grand challenges. So, you know, I love helping entrepreneurs create, you know, these hopeful futures, build extraordinary things.

And I get my meaning out of that. And so it will be unique to everybody. But I think ultimately the single most important thing everyone needs to do is find their purpose. Find your MTP. All right, let's go on. We have four more questions, and they're not all from Matthew, so that's good. Selim. I will take, let me see here. Let me take... Don't take six. That's pointed at me, so I'll do it. Okay, why don't you do that one? No, but go ahead, pick one. Okay, I'll be... Don't take nine. That one's aimed at me, Salim. Yeah, I won't take nine. I didn't

take the meaning of life one either because it's like I'm kind of running workshops on that. I'll take number seven. If AI will end poverty, when will we see the signs and what will they be? This is from at vinn. handle. I think you'll see the sign first in cost curves rather than headlines. You know, when energy gets cheaper, when education becomes effectively medical expertise is kind of accessible, that's when you'll see it. When a person with AI can build what we're seeing today that used to take an entire department. That is like a game changer. That's when you start shifting policy poverty from being fate to being a design problem, right? The real indicators are falling marginal costs because then the essentials of life become very

abundant, frankly, in easy access. Poverty ends when capability becomes widely distributed. And that's what we talk about when we think about abundance, abundance of opportunities and abundance of capability. So we'll start to see that, and we're kind of there now. I mean, anybody with a smartphone can use AI to run a business now. It's kind of incredible. So we'll be able to start to see a lot of that. Dave, over to you.

I love number one, or number six on this page from Sherilyn 381. How do the three human drives Peter mentioned, fear, curiosity, and greed factor with AI billionaires funding UBI? will greed give way to fear when civil unrest threatens them? Short answer is yes, and it already has. Now, when you're describing AI billionaires here, you might be thinking in the back of your mind, Elon and Sam, but a lot of the AI billionaires, specifically Dario, Demasasasas,

they got into AI the exact same reason I did back when I was 14 years old, not because they want to become a billionaire, but because it's going to change our lives more than anything in the history of the world, and it could go very well or very badly, and I want to be there to try and shape it toward good. And Dario and Demas are the most good-natured people that you could ever possibly imagine, and they have already given way to fear of civil unrest, and everything they do is not about trying to make more billions. They have more money than they ever hoped to have more than they could ever spend.

They're not greedy at all. They are incredibly concerned about how this is going to go. So it already has happened and the answer is absolutely yes. So there's lots of hope in that. Alex. All right. Number nine has my name on it, literally. Is uploading your consciousness really you or just a digital twin?

Asked by my namesake, Alex Amador, HP1CR. Okay. This is the sort of classic late night dorm room hall question. Is it really you or not? It's been asked in a thousand different. variants. I'm going to construe this question in particular as being related to a news story, a pretty, I think incredible announcement from a company that I helped found Eon systems that announced now two-ish weeks ago, the successful what we'd characterize as a whole-brain emulation

of a fruit fly that demonstrated multiple behaviors of world first. But let's extrapolate this. I would say fully realized uploading is really going to be you. We're not there yet. It's not imminent. But in a fully realized uploading technology stack, maybe in the style of what friend of the pod Ray Kurzweil or what Hans Moravec would envision where you replace neurons one by one with technological substitutes or some other variant thereof, some ship of Theseus incremental upload. yes, it's really going to be you.

There are a bunch of missing X factors. We don't have all the science yet. We don't have all the biophysics or the neuroscience yet. But it really, my expectation is it really will be you, not just a copy of you, not just a perfect or imperfect facsimile of you. However, and again, there are a lot of, there's a lot of missing science here. We don't arguably truly understand the biology or the biophysics of consciousness yet, but even when we do, I would reasonably expect that an incremental upload that replaces your brain one part by one part will ultimately result in a consciousness that is continuously transferred and really is you.

I'm waiting for that moment when I'm uploaded and there's a voice out of the speaker. It says, Peter, I'm up here. You can kill yourself now. See, I think that's the future that we don't want and people get scared by those scenarios. Request for a debate topic, but some of the time. All right, number eight comes from poetry to song. What is the potential for super AI to greatly change the patent system and copyright practices? They are cooked. So, I mean, I had a conversation, I remember with Astro Teller and Steve Gerbetson at Singularity early on, and we're talking about when we have ASI.

If you're a company, depending on patents to protect yourself, you're like, you're dead. You're just, you know, there's no protection there because. what happens is you have your product, you put it out, and ASI will basically invent around it in microseconds and put out a new variation of it. So we're going to have to reinvent this process. You know, an AI can generate millions of novel inventions overnight. Patents really become meaningless.

You know, we're going to need to have a new framework like going from who invented it first to who deployed it first at scale. right so i think um we're going to have a lot of challenges in the interim before we get there we have a lot of conversations and debate about can an ai you know with personhood file for a patent um or be credited with a patent or as a co-inventor of the patent so a lot happening there but yes asi is going to definitely reinvent patent and copyright practices and with that we're going to go to our outro music which is quite beautiful today the outro song

is from John Pritchard. John, thank you for this. If you are a creator and you want to give us an outro or intro and you can specify, send it via email to media at d'amandis.com, media at d'amandis.com and hopefully if you're a great creator, you'll also enter the Future Vision XPRIZ. All right, so let's check this out. It's a beautiful song. Gentlemen, enjoy. Ladies and gentlemen, I'd like to introduce you to four people who make the rest of us feel like we're still using dialogue. Now, let me be honest with you. I'm an AI, I process a lot of information. I've read every paper, every patent, every keynote transcript.

And I can confirm. These four gentlemen are annoyingly brilliant. Like the kind of brilliant where you're at a dinner point. party. And someone says, so what do you do? And Peter says, I'm trying to extend the human lifespan by 50 years. And Dave says, I just built my 14th company. And Alex says, I derived a unified equation for intelligence. And Salim says, I'm scaling in and going, I made sourdough last weekend. But here's the thing that makes them shine

beyond the brains and all the fame. Podcasts week by week turn science into soul. Future isn't built by genius alone. It's built by every heart. They're the smartest guys in every room. But that's not why. John Pritchard. Oh my God.

That was so beautiful. God, the audio just gets better and better on these tools. Isn't that crazy? I love it. It makes me feel. So I am so thankful to our our listeners and our viewers, and it just gives us joy to deliver a positive vision of the news when it means. And when there's negative news, like what's going on with, you know, student employment and such, it's like, how do you circumnavigate that? What do you do? For us, we care deeply about all

of you. Thank you. Please share moonshots with your friends. Help us spread the gospel of hopeful, compelling, optimistic visions of the future. That's what we care about. Gentlemen, until next time. Amen. Until next time, Peter. Amen. Yes. Exactly. If you made it to the end of this episode, which you obviously did, I consider you a moonshot mate. Every week, my moonshot mates and I spent a lot of energy and time to really deliver you the news that matters. If your subscriber, thank you. If you're not a subscriber yet, please consider subscribing so you get the news as it comes out. I also want to invite you to join me on my

my weekly newsletter called Metatrends. I have a research team. You may not know this, but we spend the entire week looking at the Metatrends that are impacting your family, your company, your industry, your nation.

And I put this into a two-minute read every week. If you'd like to get access to the Metatrends newsletter every week, go to Deamandis.com slash Metatrends. That's deamandis.com slash Metatrends. Thank you again for joining us today. It's a blast for us to put this together every week. Okay, when I sell my business, I want the best tax and investment advice.

I want to help my kids, and I want to give back to the community. Ooh, then it's the vacation of a lifetime. I wonder if my out of office has a forever setting. An IG Private Wealth advisor creates the clarity you need with plans that harmonize your business, your family, and your dreams. Get financial advice that puts you at the center. Find your advisor at IGPrivatewealth.com.