Moonshots with Peter Diamandis - The Future of AI: Leaders from TikTok, Google & More Weigh In (FII Panel) | EP #127

Episode Date: November 6, 2024

In this episode, Peter is joined by a panel of leaders in the “ Third Board of Changemakers: AI” at the 8th FII Conference to discuss how AI will impact every industry. This includes:  Shou Chew..., CEO, TikTok Jack Hidary, CEO, SandboxAQ Benjamin Horowitz, Co-Founder & General Partner, Andreessen Horowitz Travis Kalanick, CEO, CSS/Cloud Kitchens Ruth Porat, President & CIO, Alphabet & Google Jay Puri, EVP, Worldwide Field Operations, Nvidia Eric Schmidt, Co-founder with his wife, Wendy, Schmidt Sciences; Former CEO & Chairman, Google, KBE. Recorded on Oct 29th, 2024 Views are my own thoughts; not Financial, Medical, or Legal Advice. 01:10 | The Impact of AI on Businesses 19:59 | The Danger of Artificial Superintelligence 35:31 | Ensuring Responsible Use of AI Learn more about the Future Investment Initiative Institute (FII): https://fii-institute.org/   _____________ I send weekly emails with the latest insights and trends on today’s and tomorrow’s exponential technologies. Stay ahead of the curve, and sign up now:  Blog Learn more about my executive summit, Abundance360: https://www.abundance360.com/  _____________ Connect With Peter: Twitter Instagram Youtube Moonshots

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:00 How should companies and countries think about AI to drive growth and prosperity? The mantra of AI or die is real. And certainly companies and countries that do not engage will die. We made an investment in a DevTool company and this thing has grown from 0 to 40 million in revenue in three months. We have restaurants that are operating with no people or one person just overseeing the machine. We're quickly getting into that interstellar moment where you're just interacting in a very human way. My family's using TikTok. How do you think about making sure that you've got measures in place for the responsible use of AI? It's a particularly important problem for us to get on top of. It's reasonable to expect that within six to eight years,
Starting point is 00:00:46 it will be possible to have a single system that is 80 or 90% of the ability of the expert in every field. What do you consider the most dangerous outcome around AGI or artificial super intelligence? We as humans are not ready for the arrival of this. We're just not ready for it. All right, I have the very unenviable task
Starting point is 00:01:14 of doing this in 40 minutes when each of you deserve two hours on your own. I'm going to take notes from the conversation this morning and go for each of you. And wish me luck. Travis, I'm going to start with you. Founder of Uber, CEO of Cloud Kitchens. We talk about AI a lot and all about the super fancy big billion person transformations. How is AI going to change business right now and transform and expand and change profitability of businesses?
Starting point is 00:02:00 You're doing some amazing things with Cloud Kitchen and AI. Please. I mean, those are two different questions. If you just do... When I look generally at what's going on right now, it feels like we're entering an era of bigger is better. That if you are a large company with a strong business model, that the technology that's coming is actually going
Starting point is 00:02:26 to give you competitive advantage over folks that are smaller. Like the accretion of value is going to the bigger players. And there are probably a lot of very simple things that can be done to create more profit and bigger moat on those business models is my guess. So there's just like blocking and tackling like workflows, customer support, onboarding, sales, all getting automated, will make an already strong business model
Starting point is 00:02:57 like supercharged and I think for the biggest companies create trillions of dollars of value. I mean, we're doing, you know, my company is doing the future of food. It's real estate, software and robotics for food. And there's lots of fun, practical things that are happening. I mean, they're going to be big, but they're also practical. You know, we have a machine that makes food. Like, imagine if you were to go to Chipotle, that front line of people that is making your
Starting point is 00:03:33 bowl, we have a machine that does that. So we have restaurants that are operating with no people or one person just overseeing the machine. But if there's only one person in that room, you know, you gotta, we now have that person talking to the machine about how the machine is doing. As if they were an employee. So yes.
Starting point is 00:03:55 So then it's just simple stuff, but this is where we're going now. Like we have this in up and running in restaurants today where you're asking the robot, hey, is the food warm, am I running out, this kind of thing. But we just said, well, shh, you know, might as well just give it a personality.
Starting point is 00:04:14 So now you can ask, like, did the Dodgers beat the Yankees today, which they did. And you can have a conversation, and it's sort of, we're quickly getting into that interstellar moment where you're just interacting in a very human way. I've got to ask this other question just for fun.
Starting point is 00:04:33 If you were, if you'd remained CEO of Uber or were still CEO, what would you have done differently? What would you be, what would Uber be doing now? Oh man, we could take the whole hour on this one. I'll keep that one short, I'll give you a couple things. Look, we had probably one of the preeminent AI labs when I left Uber. And we saw the, you know, the seminal paper out of Google,
Starting point is 00:05:09 the attention paper. I mean, you guys know how I rolled when I was doing Uber. We probably did some pretty interesting stuff on that front. I mean, sort of in a more practical, on the more practical side, like, we were starting to roll out, I mean, of course we're doing the autonomy thing, I'll put that aside, I think Elon's going to take care of that at this point. But we were starting to roll out almost, we looked at transportation as a high frequency trading business where we would buy trips from drivers and sell it to riders. We were a market maker. And so we were starting to set up quant teams
Starting point is 00:05:47 for each city to do the high frequency trading of the trips so that we could get the lowest cost reliable ride more efficient, gain market share, get more profits, all this. This is kind of a fun, geeky finance thing. One in 30 seconds. You've disrupted two huge markets. Your one piece of advice for someone here who wants to go disrupt a marketplace today,
Starting point is 00:06:17 what's your piece of advice for them? You know, look, over time I've tried to distill what it means to innovate at speed and at scale into sort of principles or pillars. They basically are cultural values at my company, and so we've distilled it down to truth, trust, and passion. And again, those are high level sort of ideas. But doing those really well, each of those really well, is sort of how you innovate at speed and at scale.
Starting point is 00:06:55 And it's, there's a lot in there, but think of the childlike playfulness and curiosity with a teenage rebelliousness, with an old man's wisdom. That's a beautiful mindset set up. Thank you. Thank you, Travis. Everybody, I want to take a short break from our episode to talk about a company that's very important to me and could actually save your life or the life of someone that you love.
Starting point is 00:07:20 The company is called Fountain Life. It's a company I started years ago with Tony Robbins and a group of very talented physicians. Most of us don't actually know what's going on inside our body. We're all optimists. Until that day when you have a pain in your side, you go to the physician in the emergency room and they say, listen, I'm sorry to tell you this, but you have this stage three or four going on.
Starting point is 00:07:44 It didn't start that morning. It probably was a problem that's been going on for some time. But because we never look, we don't find out. So what we built at Fountain Life was the world's most advanced diagnostic centers. We have four across the US today and we're building 20 around the world. These centers give you a full body MRI, a brain, a brain vasculature, an AI enabled coronary CT looking for soft plaque, dexa scan, a grail blood cancer test, a full executive blood workup.
Starting point is 00:08:17 It's the most advanced workup you'll ever receive. 150 gigabytes of data that then go to our AIs and our physicians to find any disease at the very beginning when it's solvable. You're going to find out eventually. You might as well find out when you can take action. Fountain Life also has an entire side of therapeutics. We look around the world for the most advanced therapeutics that can add 10, 20 healthy years to your life and we provide them to you at our centers.
Starting point is 00:08:46 So if this is of interest to you, please go and check it out. Go to fountainlife.com backslash Peter. When Tony and I wrote our New York Times bestseller Life Force, we had 30,000 people reached out to us for Fountain Life memberships. If you go to fountainlife.com backslash Peter, we'll put you to the top of the list. Really it's something that is for me, one of the most important things I offer my entire family,
Starting point is 00:09:14 the CEOs of my companies, my friends, it's a chance to really add decades onto our healthy lifespans. Go to fountainlife.com backslash Peter. It's one of the most important things I can offer to you as one of my listeners. All right, let's go back to our episode. Jack Hittery, my dear friend,
Starting point is 00:09:33 one of our trustees, CEO of Sandbox AQ. You have your chairman sitting right next to you. No pressure. No pressure, whatever. So first of all, please explain AQ, but then what are large quantitative models and what role do you envision they'll play in the current evolution of AI?
Starting point is 00:09:51 Well, Peter, first of all, I'm very happy to see that we still have humans on the panel instead of just AIs. In a moment. So I think it's just another few. I mixed the AI in this panel, yes. Okay. Another few FIIs, this is gonna be avatars up here. The mantra of AI or die is real, is real.
Starting point is 00:10:08 It's not just a phrase, it's happening right now, it's happening on several levels, and certainly companies and countries that do not engage will die. But now the question is, okay, let's say we all agree on that, which AI, what AI, what kind of AI, what mix of AI? And the marketplace now is starting to offer more than just one slice which AI, what AI, what kind of AI, what mix of AI. And the marketplace now is starting to offer
Starting point is 00:10:27 more than just one slice of AI. And that's what's exciting. So we have, of course, large language models. Many people in this room and on this panel are involved in that and making huge strides. And we're seeing AI now take on reasoning, and I'm sure Eric and others will also address that. But there's a whole other side of AI
Starting point is 00:10:45 that has had less focus, and that's quantitative AI. That's AI that's based on equations and data, quantitative data, numerical data. When we think about starting a biopharma industry in a country that never had a biopharma industry, that was really not even possible five or 10 years ago. But now we can come to a country like KSA or other countries and say, hey, let's get that going. But it's not
Starting point is 00:11:11 large language models that will win the day there. It's models that have been trained on biology, physics, chemistry, electrons, that kind of interaction. So quantitative, large quantitative models, LQMs, as complementary to LLMs, allow us to do that at scale and speed. And we do that on the same GPUs we have in video here on the panel that LLMs use, but we tweak them in a very, very different way. We train it on a very, very different kind of data. The data doesn't come from the internet.
Starting point is 00:11:40 The data does not come from downloading Wikipedia and Reddit and social media. Instead, we generate the data from the actual equations that govern our world. And this is now a whole new superpower for humans that we just never had before as a species. Until three years ago, it was not possible to calculate with any kind of accuracy how one molecule that's meant to be, for example, good for Alzheimer's or Parkinson's or brain cancer or pancreatic cancer would fit,
Starting point is 00:12:08 would lock in to that receptor. Now, as of just 36 months ago, with the collaboration of many people in this room actually and on this panel, it is now possible. So LQMs are really about another key tool in the tool chest. Complementing LLMs, sitting alongside the many LLMs are really about another key tool in the tool chest, complementing LLMs, sitting alongside the many LLMs out there, but a core tool that LLMs will interact with going forward in the future.
Starting point is 00:12:32 So, you mentioned data, and one of the things that we talk about is the importance of data and how the world may be running out of data to train these. So, how should leaders think about the proprietary data generation they have and retention as AI models become more commoditized? Well, Peter, we all talked about gen AI. Gen AI is a very real and big thing.
Starting point is 00:13:00 But now let's talk about gen data, generative data. How do you generate data? Well, when you want big data sets that govern our world of either quantitative finance to look at portfolio optimization or again a new material to build a car that will be lightweight, make the car lighter weight so it's more fuel efficient, we can't turn to the internet for that data. That is not where we're going to get it. Instead, we generate the data from these
Starting point is 00:13:25 equations. Those become interesting. Heisenberg, Schrodinger. Yeah, exactly. That's where quantum comes in. When people hear the word quantum, I know people get scared, sorry, but quantum is not just about quantum computers. It's about today on GPUs from Alphabet, TPU from Alphabet, GPU from NVIDIA and others. There's many others coming out. We're able to run the quantum equations, that is the equations that actually govern our world at scale on these GPUs and TPUs. This is new.
Starting point is 00:13:57 These chips, by the way, were never designed to do this in the first place. And it's the human ingenuity that is quite fascinating that came up with this. You know, you did an incredible job spinning in the first place, and it's the human ingenuity that is quite fascinating that came up with this. You know, you did an incredible job spinning sandbox AQ. A is for AI, Q is for quantum, just remember that,
Starting point is 00:14:12 out of X at Google, and you have real products today. Can you just very quickly give us a sense of what sandbox products are that you're sure? I'll give some extra real case studies here at FII We have I think Paul Hudson the CEO of Sanofi one of the largest pharma companies in the world and our two companies actually Are announcing just today? We were just on CNBC earlier
Starting point is 00:14:39 Announcing that we're working together to apply this a queue, this LQM, this quantitative AI, to accelerating biomarker development, that is development of diagnostics that will help all of us, and drugs as well. So that's a real-world case study of how we're using it there. We're also working with companies like Dow and others on the chemical side to say, how do we get new catalysts that could bring us new materials?
Starting point is 00:15:03 When we think about the hydrocarbon space, think about the output of a refinery. We say, okay, the high octane fuels, very profitable, jet fuels, kerosene, profitable, naphtha, but how about the bottom of the stack, Peter? That bottom of the stack petroleum companies don't make much money on. It's sold to smelters and others and burned in the air. And so when we think about what we can do with AI
Starting point is 00:15:25 that understands chemistry, we can now take the bottom of the refinery stack, up value it to things like carbon composites. Carbon composites are what make a McLaren car so powerful and yet so light, Aston Martin, Ferrari and others, but it's not accessible technology to all cars. By working with the hydrocarbon producers, we can say, how do we now make this kind of technology available on a democratized basis?
Starting point is 00:15:52 So these are real world impacts, be it in biopharma, in chemicals, in fuel, in energy. And Elon was talking about energy and energy storage. The battery technology we have today, Peter, is 45 years old. And we need to leapfrog that, and this kind of AI, complementing LLMs, this is where it's going to come from. Let's go to your chairman next. Can we thank Ruth for spinning sandbox out?
Starting point is 00:16:18 Thank you, Ruth. Good job, Ruth. And what a financial success so far. Absolutely. It's been amazing. I've never seen a company scale revenues as quickly as you have. Thanks extraordinary.
Starting point is 00:16:28 Dr. Eric Schmidt, former CEO and chairman of Google and Alphabet. There's nobody on the planet that I think holds your stature in this field. Thank you for all that you've done. The path to AGI. We talk about AGI. It's this blurry line of what is AGI.
Starting point is 00:16:47 So, do you have a definition for it and why is it so exciting? Why is, you know, Sam saying I'll spend $50 billion, whatever it will take. Talk about that, please. It's worth understanding what will happen in the next five years. Please. And the work that these guys highlighted and others on the panel will highlight are going to generate savants. That is specialized assistants that will work with you in whatever you do.
Starting point is 00:17:15 An artist savant, a music savant, a physics savant and so forth. Those savants will work with you to do research, drugs, drug discovery, solve problems, can do many, many things. Why five years? Because today we have all the components necessary. We have planning, we have the ability to do forward and backward reasoning, we can do stepwise reasoning, we can go against objective functions that are much more complicated than they used to before,
Starting point is 00:17:45 and we can generate arbitrary code. In the industry, it is believed that somewhere around five years, no one knows exactly, the systems will begin to be able to write their own code. That is, they literally will take their code and make it better, and of course that's recursive. I thought that is essentially a change in slope. If you're going like this, all of a sudden it goes like that. It's reasonable to expect that within six to eight years from now, so 2030 right after that,
Starting point is 00:18:13 maybe 2032 under current growth rate, it will be possible to have a single system that is 80 or 90% of the ability of the expert in every field. So 90% of a physicist, 90% of the ability of the expert in every field. So 90% of a physicist, 90% of the best physicist, 90% of the best chemist, 90% of the best artist. When you have such a thing, you have a non-human that is effectively smarter than any human,
Starting point is 00:18:39 because no human can dominate all of those fields. Maybe Leonardo da Vinci could, but certainly not now. We don't know what happens when such a thing exists, but we know that that race is really important. There are many, many things that this thing, we don't know what to call it except an AGI, could do. For example, it could analyze cyber threats and develop new ones, or it could protect against them.
Starting point is 00:19:01 It could come up with new biological solutions, good ones or bad ones. So there's both a national security component and a worry, to protect against them. You could come up with new biological solutions, good ones or bad ones. So there's both a national security component and a worry, but also a notion of a huge step change in human efficiency and productivity. I will assert that we as humans are not ready for the arrival of this.
Starting point is 00:19:17 We're just not ready for it. Yeah, I can imagine all future Nobel prizes in math, physics, chemistry, medicine coming from AI systems. And I should say, by the way, that if you go to Formula One, you enjoy watching the humans drive around the track. Now it's obvious that automated cars, Waymo cars and so forth, could drive faster.
Starting point is 00:19:38 But we wouldn't find that an interesting sport. So here we are in the land of golf, maybe there will be a robotic golfer that will beat all the live top golfers, but we won't look at the robot, we'll look at the humans. So we poor humans will take pity on ourselves. We're very biased, aren't we? That will be how we choose to entertain ourselves.
Starting point is 00:19:55 Very briefly, but this takes an hour worth of conversation, what do you consider the most dangerous outcome around AGI or artificial super intelligence? There's a huge issue around proliferation. And right now we don't fully understand the rate of proliferation of the mid-tier models and open source models. There's a consensus at the moment that models that cost less than $100 million to train are probably not that dangerous, and ones that cost more than $100 million are more
Starting point is 00:20:23 dangerous. I have no idea why we believe that, but that's the number. So what will happen is at some point there will be proliferation of inexpensive tools that can do significant damage. The most obvious one is in biology. Yeah. Thank you. Something you know a lot about.
Starting point is 00:20:40 And I do think that we're going to see extension of the human health span because of AI. We live longer, but it'll be more dangerous in some situations. Hopefully we can moderate that. Did you see the movie Oppenheimer? If you did, did you know that besides building the atomic bomb at Los Alamos National Labs, that they spent billions on bio-defense weapons, the ability to accurately detect viruses and microbes by reading their RNA. Well, a company called Viome exclusively licensed the technology from Los Alamos Labs to build
Starting point is 00:21:14 a platform that can measure your microbiome and the RNA in your blood. Now, Viome has a product that I've personally used for years called Full Body Intelligence, which collects a few drops of your blood, spit and stool and can tell you so much about your health. They've tested over 700,000 individuals and used their AI models to deliver members critical health guidance like what foods you should eat, what foods you shouldn't eat, as well as your supplements and probiotics, your biological age and other deep health insights and the results of the recommendations are nothing short of stellar. As reported in the
Starting point is 00:21:49 American Journal of Lifestyle Medicine after just six months of following Viom's recommendations, members reported the following a 36% reduction in depression, a 40% reduction in anxiety, a 30% reduction in diabetes, and a 48% reduction in IBS. Listen, I've been using Viome for three years. I know that my oral and gut health is one of my highest priorities. Best of all, Viome is affordable, which is part of my mission to democratize health. If you want to join me on this journey, go to Viome.com slash Peter. I've asked Naveen Jain, a friend of mine, who's the founder and CEO of Viom, to give my listeners a special discount.
Starting point is 00:22:29 You'll find it at viom.com slash Peter. Ruth, a pleasure. Ruth is a president and CIO of Alphabet and Google. You met her this morning. Ruth, I want to quote this and then ask you about it. We've all witnessed companies making grand AI for good pronouncements, for sure, but when push comes to shove and financial performance dictates decision making, often less lofty ideals are what shareholders demand. So, how do you think, you know, I think the world of Google, I think Google has transformed the world in extraordinary ways. How do you think of AI for good versus AI for financial gain in the position you're in and Google as a company? I think of it as a false choice because the upside from AI is absolutely
Starting point is 00:23:20 extraordinary. But if we don't invest to protect on the downside, we'll never have the opportunity to actually invest to capture the upside. And that upside-downside point is two sides of the same coin. So when you think about the upside, it's around accelerating science, it's around social issues, solving things in education, healthcare, as we've been talking about. It's the economic upside. But if there's not a responsible foundation, if we're not doing the heavy work, we don't have a right to have a seat at that table. And that means engaging with regulators constructively. It means investing in our systems internally so that you're protecting
Starting point is 00:23:59 from the downside. If you don't protect on the downside, you're going to find resistance, whether it's from the regulatory world or from everybody else. And so they go hand in hand. And to assume that you can pursue one without the guardrails that are critical, I don't think is long-term sustainable. And so we view them as two interlinked approaches to really maximizing the upside of this extraordinary technology. You've managed through a multitude of ups and downs in the economy, including the 2008 financial crisis. What's important for business leaders here to know about leading their teams through the incredible changes
Starting point is 00:24:36 we're about to see? And do you think people realize how much change we're about to see in business and industries and society over the next five years? I think the most important point to take away from all these conversations is that the art of the possible is fundamentally changed. This is a generational opportunity like we haven't seen before.
Starting point is 00:24:59 I spoke about some of the key proof points in the earlier discussion this morning, probably one really important one is in life science and so proud of our colleagues who won the Nobel Prize for this with Alpha Fold, credited with being the most important contribution to drug discovery. Relevant to your question, Demis Asabas, the founder of DeepMind, the one who went on this journey to create Alpha Fold, when he embarked on it, many people said, how is this possible? And his answer was, why not? And so we kept going. And I think the other really important point when you think about this, that I talked about
Starting point is 00:25:36 some of the language translation work we're doing, we now translate in 260 languages. The important point is that we added 110 languages in the last six months alone. 500 million people on the planet. So it's a vertical lift. What that says is you better not delay. You better move right away. It's already been said on this panel. I 100% agree.
Starting point is 00:25:55 And the economic upside is profound. So I would say the two most important, there are many important messages, but one of them is the time is now. You have to reimagine what is possible because it really is. And we're seeing it already today. We're seeing it in the manufacturing sector. We're seeing it in education.
Starting point is 00:26:12 We're seeing it in so many different areas. In fact, very importantly, on this point about language translation, I was recently with the Minister of Digital Transformation, a country in West Africa who said more than 50% of their population is under the age of 19. They knew that the most important thing they could do, we've already heard comments about education today, the most important thing to do is education. How can you have a country with more than 50%
Starting point is 00:26:39 under the age of 19 and not solve that? But they didn't have the teachers to do so. And what's exciting with AI is they can now actually provide education, quality education, to their entire population. And very importantly, in many countries, as in this one, in many of our countries, multiple languages are spoken.
Starting point is 00:26:57 And before AI Translate, you had to learn French or English in order to get the math books. Now you can learn it in your language. And so to me, when you think about the impact on humanity, it is incredibly inspiring. My dad always said when I was growing up, education is your passport for freedom. It is your passport for life. This is transformative. So one, get on the program right away.
Starting point is 00:27:20 And the second really important point is what Demis said, which is why not? You have to radically reimagine what is possible, how you interact with customers, every element of process, risk management, the way to solve healthcare issues, education issues, climate change issues, but the time is now. It's incredible, and it's near infinite opportunity, isn't it? Absolutely.
Starting point is 00:27:42 Every industry will be transformed. Reimagine the impossible, re-imagine the possible. Thank you, thank you. Ben Horowitz, co-founder and general partner of A16Z. Man, oh man, you guys have been on fire in the AI universe. So, I'd love to hear your thinking as a leading thought investor. Where is the value going to accrue in this incredible value chain from chips and power
Starting point is 00:28:11 and real estate and large models and applications? Are they all equally important to invest in? Yes, so I think as people have been saying, it's such a gigantic market. It's the biggest market we've ever seen that there's gonna be kind of money to be made everywhere. I think the issues and challenges are different at the different layers. So if you look at the kind of hardware infrastructure,
Starting point is 00:28:36 so I have chips and data centers and power. The big, there's no question in 10 years we're gonna need more of all that. Like there's no question in 10 years we're gonna need more of all that. Like there's no doubt at all. But the thing about that is, okay, how does that progress and how do you finance it? So if you look back to the internet, would you recall, we had the biggest bandwidth shortage in the world in 1999
Starting point is 00:29:02 and the biggest bandwidth- I remember. Glet ever in 2001. Akamai was charging whatever they wanted to back then. Yeah, it was the most bananas thing. And how could you possibly have too much bandwidth in 2001? It didn't make sense, right, if you look back historically. But what happened is the bottleneck moved.
Starting point is 00:29:18 So the bottleneck was bandwidth in 1999, but then it became how fast could the servers spit out the bits? Did we have load balancers that were good enough? You know these kinds of things and then we didn't need the bandwidth because we were stuck in other places And already we've seen kind of the price of Nvidia chips this year drop in half you go. Whoa. How is that happening? Well, we have this data bottleneck That's kind of becoming a sort of serious thing and then like we going to have a power bottleneck, clearly, and other kinds of things. And then we'll have a cooling bottleneck.
Starting point is 00:29:51 And so if you're financed with Nvidia profits, then you're probably good. But if you're financing a data center with a lot of debt, you could lose it. You could get upside down very fast. So you have to really be thoughtful about that. Then if you go to really be thoughtful about that. Then if you go to the next layer, the kind of foundation models, what we call the state of the art models,
Starting point is 00:30:11 Anthropic, OpenAI, Gemini, Lama. That's a really, so that's 80% of the software market. Everybody has to use it for infrastructure. So every application, everything calls on it. I'll bet Travis has it as part of his infrastructure, there's no question. So that's just a big and very fast growing market, but it's really interesting in that the price of a token
Starting point is 00:30:37 has fallen a hundredfold in the last two years. The most powerful technology in the world is almost free. Yes, it's almost free, Like the prices are dropping like crazy, but revenue is still increasing. So the size of the market is huge, and the price competition is really intense. Like much more intense than you would see in this complex of technology at this stage normally.
Starting point is 00:30:57 And then we're kind of, we're asymptoting in certain places. So if you look at the growth of GPT-2 to GPT-3.5 versus the growth in terms of intelligence of 3.5 to 4, 2 to 3.5 is much larger, even though we spent way more money going 3.5 to 4. That's because we're hitting a bottle. You know, like, it's not the end of it. It's not gonna asymptote forever,
Starting point is 00:31:25 but it does imply that there's gonna be an architectural change. And so even though the revenue is so huge in this market, there could be new players that emerge. We could be searched before Google when we had 37 search engines, and none of them were Google. And we can't even remember who any of them were now because they don't matter.
Starting point is 00:31:44 So that's the kind of trickiness there. and we can't even remember who any of them were now because they don't matter. So that's the kind of trickiness there. And then in the application layer, Travis hit on a really interesting thing, which is big companies can optimize very fast with AI. And so as a new company, you have to ask the question, a new application, can I get to market faster than the big company
Starting point is 00:32:07 can get a good product? And that's the race. And I'd say, look, in some cases, it's the biggest private equity opportunity of all time. In other cases, we made it just to give you an idea of how fast you can build a good product and take the market. We made an investment in a dev tool company,
Starting point is 00:32:24 which is like the slowest growing stuff ever because you're selling to engineers and engineers hate buying stuff because they can build it, of course. And this thing has grown from zero to 40 million in revenue in three months. Now, like, you know, like three years would have broken the world record for a fricking DevTool.
Starting point is 00:32:41 But that's, so they're going to take the whole market before anybody can build anything as good as they have. And so that's certainly possible. And then the other thing that's been very interesting. I'm gonna ask you to wrap up on that. Oh yes, yeah, sorry. Too much to say. Ben and I, and I wanna hear it, believe me.
Starting point is 00:32:57 Yeah, yeah, yeah, sorry. But thank you. Shogue, as CEO of TikTok, it's a pleasure to have you here. How is TikTok utilizing AI to contribute to the creative economy? And what's the positive impact for the global economy as part of that? So, our recommendation algorithm has always been based on machine learning, so it's something we've embraced for a number of years. But what I think has been unlocked by mainly OpenAI
Starting point is 00:33:30 in the last couple of years is this better understanding that the opportunities are actually much bigger and coming faster than we thought possible. For us, a lot of it is translating this amazing technology. First of all, we need to understand it. And understanding it, I think, involves, with myself, I mean, I find it hard to catch up. There's so much going on. I think a lot of it is using it myself.
Starting point is 00:33:53 I read a lot of reports, X number of things can be done, Y number of things can be done, but when I use it myself, I just download the products or sign up for it and use it myself, I get a better understanding of exactly what is possible at this moment in time. For us, a large part of the TikTok experience, apart from discovery, which is just always going to be based on AI, is the connection between an idea that somebody has in your head and creating a work that's created at the end of it. And a lot of people are, like myself, not so talented.
Starting point is 00:34:30 I have good ideas, my videos are terrible, because this is very hard for me to translate that idea. Maybe my ideas are better. You have people to do that for you. I have to do that translation. I think there's a very, I mean, we provide thousands of tools to our creators, and a lot of them are, I wouldn't necessarily call them
Starting point is 00:34:46 sort of AI-powered, but they're tools to help you express yourselves. I think increasingly you will find it becomes easier. In a few words, you are able to customize something that you could not before, without great artistic talents. And that is exciting exciting because that means that you're gonna unlock a significant portion more people in the world who are now able to express
Starting point is 00:35:12 very good ideas in their heads into something that resonates with more people around the world because it's easier to create those pieces. So there's a lot of investment going on there. And like many have said on this panel, there's a tremendous amount of other things that goes on in many other parts of the business that we are exploring what is possible and not at this moment in time. We talked about AI safety, a lot of kids are using TikTok, my family's using TikTok. How do you think about making sure that you've got measures in place for the responsible use of AI?
Starting point is 00:35:46 Yes, it's a very important, particularly, I guess in the US there's an election cycle going on at this moment in time. It's a particularly important problem for us to get on top of. So I think the first thing is your policies. The guidelines of what you allow on your platform needs to be very explicit. So today if you do anything deceptive using AI, impersonation or anything dangerous, it violates the guidelines and we take it down. The second is we provide a series of tools for people to
Starting point is 00:36:18 automatically label. So if you produce something that's done by AI, that's produced by AI, we will ask you to label that, and if you don't label that, we will take measures to make sure that you don't get the reach that you want. But you use AI to do that, I assume. The third thing is to use AI, the better for content moderation, and there are many opportunities for this.
Starting point is 00:36:40 Initially, I didn't really understand it, it was a very fuzzy concept, large language models can do better content moderation, but how? But with better understanding, there really is a very significant path for a lot of this new technology to help content moderation be better.
Starting point is 00:36:58 So using technology to help protect against. It's interesting to what Eric said earlier. If TikTok was populated by videos only created by AI It'd be a lot less interesting. It's the fact that humans are doing it with the support of AI that makes it fascinating It's currently true and I can't agree if I agree with Eric on many many things because he's a lot smarter than I am but We are seeing some, for example,
Starting point is 00:37:25 OpenAI has been posting Sora videos on our platform. I've been following them. Some of them are becoming really interesting. And you can see a path where at some point, one of them could go viral. One of them could be so interesting that people feel like it engages them. It is possible.
Starting point is 00:37:42 Real quick, I've been getting the most unusual compliments lately on my skin. Truth is, I use a lotion every morning and every night religiously called One Skin. It was developed by four PhD women who determined a 10 amino acid sequence that is a synolytic that kills senile cells in your skin. And this literally reverses the age of your skin. And I think it's one of the most incredible products. I use it all the time. If you're interested, check out the show notes. I've asked my team to link to it below.
Starting point is 00:38:14 All right. Let's get back to the episode. Jay Puri, EVP worldwide of NVIDIA. NVIDIA has become synonymous with the AI revolution that we're living in. Thank God for those early video game players, huh? How should companies and countries think about AI to drive growth and prosperity? We have a number of countries and leaders represented here
Starting point is 00:38:41 and what do you advise them to do right now? Because it's gonna be fundamental to their existence, to their future economies. You agree? Absolutely. Yeah, I mean AI is basically about creating intelligence. So how can something about creating intelligence not be fundamental to the economy?
Starting point is 00:39:07 And so the other thing, of course, is the pace at which AI is advancing is frankly just unbelievable. There are just no expletives that you can use to describe that. Just two years ago, we had... I call it all-new stock price highs. What's that? Exponential growth in Nvidia stock.
Starting point is 00:39:35 So, only two years ago, we had chat GPT and generative AI, and we were very impressed with the fact that you could get next token prediction and it would answer. And now today, as everybody is talking, you know, the AIs are becoming very sophisticated and able to reason and reflect. And in fact, they don't just do one-shot reasoning, they can reason a lot and solve very complex problems. It's the agentic AI.
Starting point is 00:40:05 And then the way you interface with them is not necessarily a chat bot, but you can have human avatars. So, you know, we are going to have to learn how to live with digital humans as teammates, if you will. And then, you know, going forward, we are moving into things like physical AI, where, of course, Elon talked about robots and humanoid robots, but all kinds of robots, even factories and
Starting point is 00:40:36 warehouses and everything will be robots that will be built into the digital world. And they will all obey the laws of physics and so on. You will not be able to tell the difference between the digital and the physical. And you will use AI to optimize everything in the digital world. And then you will implement it in the physical world. And then it's kind of the AI flywheel,
Starting point is 00:40:59 because whatever you do in the physical world then provides data to improve what happens in the digital world and so on. So what I'm saying is, you know, with this type of what's going on, what is it, to your point, you know, what is the condition that you have to create for you to be successful in using AI, whether you are a company or you're a country. And the condition is, of course, AI is about taking the information that is embedded in the data that is there.
Starting point is 00:41:35 That's where the intelligence is embedded, and AI allows you to discover that using these sophisticated models and everything I'm talking about. So to be able to do that, what everybody needs to do right away is to build the instrument to allow you to do that. And that is what we call the AI factory. An AI factory is custom built to take raw data, process it into generative models and so on,
Starting point is 00:42:07 and then allows you to produce these monetizable tokens at scale, right? And so these factories, once you build them, can change everything, but they're not easy to build. As Elon was saying, it's extremely difficult to build these AI factories. And I think one of the things that we at NVIDIA have been doing, of course, we have been involved with every one of these factories that has been built.
Starting point is 00:42:35 So we have tried to make it as simple and straightforward as one can make them by taking all the learnings that we've had, codify them into reference architectures and so forth, and see how quickly and replicate these factories, right? And let me ask you a closing question here. The GPUs that Nvidia has been producing, there are many companies chasing you, no one at the scale. How long do we see the GPU as the dominant architecture
Starting point is 00:43:07 in AI, do you imagine? Is it the rest of this decade? Well, I think one of the things that people miss is Nvidia is not just about the GPU. We are about an accelerated computing platform. So what does accelerated computing mean to you? Okay, so accelerated computing is not about just, it is, you know, we need to, general purpose computing, which is what we relied on for a long time, sort of was using Moore's
Starting point is 00:43:37 law and it kept advancing, say, twice as fast, you know, say every year or so. But that type of advancement in computing, even if that was to go on, and Moore's Law is not happening anymore, in 10 years you'd only be able to advance computing by 100 times. To do AI, we have advanced computing for a particular domain by using GPUs by a million times.
Starting point is 00:44:05 That's the reason why deep learning is possible and the types of models that we are doing. And to do that, you have to innovate across the whole stack, not just at the GPU, but all the software, refactoring it, parallelizing it, looking at the unit of computing as not a server, but a data center and so forth. So that's what we are...
Starting point is 00:44:30 It's not about a particular chip. It's about an accelerated computing platform that you can be true to, which is based on CUDA, and people can continue to innovate in AI, whether they're building models or they're doing inferencing or whatever, and they can be sure that there is backwards and forward compatibility and so it's very much more than about a chip. And so I think that's what we're focused on and that's what we hope to continue doing for the long term. Ladies and gentlemen, six minutes per person is nowhere near enough.
Starting point is 00:45:04 Thank you all for your patience and for your wisdom. Grateful. Let's give it up for our panel here.

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