Morning Joe - Latest poll numbers 'devastating' for Trump, GOP ahead of midterms

Episode Date: September 18, 2026

September 18, 2026 – 6am:Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) surprised he has to campaign in red statesHow Trump’s policies hurts Midwest farmersPoll: Moody and Nixon tied in U.S. Senate raceEarly voting begins in midterm elections in some statesFox News Poll: 55% say Democrats would handle inflation betterTrump super PAC spends $100M in districts he won in 2024Andrew Yang claims AI planted secret code in internetPOLITICO: Heads of tech and AI companies invited to state dinner with Trump-XiFL GOP Congresswoman releases campaign ad critical of Trump’s immigration policyDemocratic Gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa of Texas discusses her campaign To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

We've got to talk about the economy. We've got to talk about the cost of living. I've been to, this weekend, I'm going to Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa to help raise money and campaign for our very good candidates. If you told me six months ago, I was going to be having to spend my time in those three states. I wouldn't have believed you. Those ought to be fat guy layups for us. Now, we're going to win there, but the races are closed.

We've got to talk about what's worrying people, and that's the cost of living. And since one big, beautiful bill, we have a good story to tell, but it's complicated, and that was a long time ago. And since, in terms of addressing the cost of living, since we did the one big beautiful bill, all we've done is sit around sucking on our teeth. Well, maybe you've done that too. And a lot of people obviously don't like how that taste because it was unpopular when you passed it. It's even more unpopular now.

And that just kind of happens when you slash health care spending and give tax cuts to billionaires. It's not really that difficult. That was Republican Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana telling the truth about having the campaign in some traditionally red states. in those states, he was talking about Kansas, Iowa, Nebraska. Now, those are states that are so predictably read. It's something they should never have to worry about John Heilman. But, you know, playing it safe, you would say, oh, of course Republicans are going to win Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska.

I don't know how much money I'd put on that right now. If I were a betting man, of course, I'm not a betting man. But if I were a betting man, I would. I wouldn't, I would not move all my chips to the Republicans because in Kansas, you actually have a great political athlete in Kansas. Well, you do in all, actually, all three of those states, the Democrats have put up the type of candidates they need to win in those states. And Republican candidates, I mean, I got to say, Senator Marshall is just running a horrible campaign. We found out. It's not just in medieval England that you have debtors prison.

You have debtors prison in Marshalls, Kansas now. It's an ugly, ugly sight. Yes. And look, just the macro situation in those states, these corn belt states, like, there literally is nowhere worse to live in America as a result in a very direct way of Trump policies. Right. You got high gas prices, high diesel prices. The Canadian trade wars drive up fertilizer prices.

And then the tariffs are crushing the farm belt. I'm crushing the farmer is the agricultural economy. So there's a very, there's very, very. fertile political ground for upsets. And, you know, particularly in Iowa, Democrats have two, both in the gubernatorial candidate, Rob Sandin and Josh Turuk are very strong candidates. And I think there's a possibility that people have understated the strength of Democrats in general, and particularly in those states where none of those races would surprise me at this point if we won't, if on election day looked up and we're like, that, not another thing, it would surprise me

if they were verdaged or red, but they also wouldn't surprise me if they went the other way. I guess that's the main thing. The fact that all three of those states could go blue and the morning after nobody would be shocked, they'd be surprised at. Boy, things are really changing. But I want to underline what John just said, John Lemire, it's hard to find a group of people, Americans more impacted economically than farmers right now. People in rural states, what did we warn about the people?

big beautiful bill before it passed time and time again. We talked every day about health care was going to be slashed because what Republicans were doing and what they call the big beautiful bill, which of course has to be really maddening if hospitals are shutting down in your rural hometown or if your children's clinics are shutting down or if nursing homes for your parents are shutting down or all of these things that you depend on. Rural health care has been in crisis for well over a decade. Things have been getting worse. rural health care. And this Republican bill just torched it. You add on top of that the trade war that's disproportionately hurt farmers. You add on that, we're going to go to Jay Martin a second,

but he was warning about, you know, Argentina beef stuff before, which really wrung a bell with a lot of ranchers and farmers that were just getting crushed by Donald Trump's policies, crushed. You know, he can say whatever he wants to say in his billionaire cutter jet, you know, from Washington, D.C. and around the world, but they're on the ground in Kansas. They're on the ground in Nebraska. They're on their forms. They know how bad the situation is there. And it keeps getting worse this morning. I think I saw diesel prices now up to $6.35. That's devastating. Yeah, first we should note, of course, no surprise that J. Mart would have his eye on the intersection of food and politics. Of course. You got that.

Particularly beef. Beef prices. Exactly. But the diesel price is, I'm glad we've been underscoring it all week because it has such a ripple effect. Because what trucks are supporting all manner of goods all over the country, that's now more expensive to do. There's going to be, we're going to see other sectors experience similar hikes. It is absolutely those farm states in the middle of the country. But let's add to it other states with significant rural areas, Maine, Ohio, even parts of Texas,

where these are things, these policies from the Trump administration, are hurting their voters and putting states in play that we would not have expected, you know, even six to eight months ago. You know, historical trends are such. Democrats go into this year thinking, hey, we've got a good shot at the House. Right. And now they feel very good about it. But suddenly, the Senate is in play, and we know there have been wave years before.

And a wave year tends to pick up a couple of states you wouldn't have expected. Well, exactly. And say, more, it's like when people come up to me and say, you were in Congress? How did you ever get elected to Congress? I go. Good question. Wave year. That's how I got elected.

1994. I could have run my dog and won in 1990. The dog would have won in 1994 in Northwest Florida. But this could be one of those wave years. But, Tamehart, we also remember 1998 when everybody in Washington, D.C. said Democrats were going to get crushed. Yeah. Because of Bill Clinton and Monica.

22, everybody on the right and in the center, we're mocking Joe Biden for talking about democracy. You remember that red, blood red background where you're talking about democracy, talking about abortion. And yet Joe Biden had about as good of an off-year election as any president's had in quite some time. So you never know which way these things are going to go. I will say looking at the polling right now, which is always an exact, looking at what Republicans are saying right now, looking at poll out of Florida right now that shows the Senate and governor's race deadlocked, looking at it, you know, those same races deadlocked in Texas. You know, it's pretty, these are things you would not expect.

I will say in Florida especially, you know, a state I know an awful lot about, that's a state that the Democrats just, they pulled up the tent polls four years ago, and they just left the state in the middle of the night. There is no Democratic Party in the state of Florida. There is no organized Democrat. And yet you look at these polls and you get Republicans, are going to have to spend money in Florida? Are they going to lose a governorship and they're going to lose a Senate race?

A Senate race with a very progressive woman running. Joe, I was texting with the Republican in Florida last night who said, look, we should still win. Donald should still win the governorship. But he's got a lot of money. He's got to really start spending it because this thing. a margin of air race now. And that's the sentiment that you hear across the board for the GOP. We basically have a couple of weeks. We got a financial advantage. If we're going to get back in the

game here, it's going to be by early October because of our financial advantage. I just, I question how much money can work in this environment. You can build an eight foot wall, but if you have a 10 foot wave, it's not doing you a whole lot of good. And I just, I'm reminded of that that great philosopher. We're here with Elise from Mississippi, Haley Barber, who's got one of my favorite lines in politics, especially in wave years.

Joe Haley likes to say, good gets better and bad gets worse. And, you know, that tends to be the case in wave elections that this stuff gets locked in pretty quickly. And here's the other thing. We don't have an election day in this country anymore. They start voting soon.

Like, this stuff is about to be, and locked. And if there's not a dramatic change, either by dint of this ad campaign, Republicans are financing, or some good news on the economic front, I'm just not sure how we're not going to wake up the morning after election day and say, hey, look at that. Both chambers flipped and, oh, my gosh, you know, even Iowa, Nebraska, and perhaps Kansas flipped as well. We're close yet. Even close is very bad news for Republicans. Gene, before we get a poll or two. I just want to underline something

that Jamar had said. The elections come at us fast. They come at us early. I won't say old timers like you and me. I'll just say old timers like me. You know, my view of campaigns were shaped not only by my own, where on Friday the race, supposedly the Democrat was

ahead 51 to 49 in a poll that the Republican Party took. And over the weekend, you know, people just said I've had enough of Democrats, and I won 62 to 30 percent. Nobody would have seen that coming. And it's sort of, so that obviously was a defining way I looked at elections, things breaking the last weekend. But the same thing with Reagan on Friday. He and

Jimmy Carter were tied. I remember reading the Time Magazine article in 1980. This race too close to call. And then you hear the stories later of Jimmy Carter slumping on Saturday when the polls are coming in and they're saying it's all breaking to Reagan. And Reagan has this massive landslide. That's how we, that's how I have grown up to look at elections. But those moments are happening right now. In North Carolina, they're going to start voting early. They started voting. They're already voting.

You know, that beautiful scene in the making of president, 1960, where Teddy White talks about the majesty of people going out in the morning and voting for president, the snow falling and the workers, you know, going, you know, rich people go early with the workers, get off their factory jobs and they go later in the day. That's the beauty. Nope. No, no more majesty.

No, in September. It's already started. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, that's something that those of us who've been around for a while have to get used to. The fact that, yes, the elections take place over an extended period of time. They start much earlier than that many of us realize or have internalized. And so things kind of get locked in. And I got to admit, there is kind of.

kind of the, that slight whiff of perhaps a wave. Now, you know, again, it's just kind of starting to smell like it might be that kind of year. And in part because you just see the Republicans with nothing, with kind of nothing to say. And I wonder if people aren't making up their minds and haven't made up their minds that, yeah, it's time for change. I mean, you just look at, go down the street, you look at, to go past the gas station, you look at the price of gas, you go in the grocery store, you look at the price of anything. And then split screen, you listen to what people in Washington here are talking about. And it's, you know, whether or not Donald Trump is going to tear down the Kennedy Center and, you know, all that. All that.

sort of stuff. And there's a disconnect there. And that's sort of disconnect. It's very dangerous for an incumbent party. Yeah, very dangerous. And, you know, J.D. Vance yesterday gives one of the saddest, you know, we played the clip is one of the saddest pleased of voters I've heard since, please, clap, please, please. Please clap. Please. Say, hey, give us another chance. And if you don't like Well, those Democrats are crazy. I mean, it's not exactly, you know, not exactly this sort of campaign that's going to inspire people and make them forget that they're paying over $6 a gallon for diesel. Yeah, I don't think it'll go to the Hall of Fame of Campaign rhetoric. Give us a no chance. Please, two more years, please. So let's bring in a form-edged Mississippi native,

MS now contributor, at least, George. Great to see you as well. And let's get into some polling, as Joe mentioned. According to the latest Fox News poll, voters say they trust Democrats to handle and prices over Republicans, 55% to 40%. Oh, come on. That's crazy. That's a massive shift from 2022, when Republicans had a nine-point advantage on this same issue. The poll also finds that 63% of voters say the Trump administration has made the economy worse, and that includes 25% of Republicans. And a majority of voters say the price of groceries and gas are a major problem, along with housing. and health care costs. At least Jordan, those are just devastating numbers.

You just hear those numbers and then you match it up with the lived experience of so many Americans around the country. And it's really, really depressing. And in a minute, we're going to preview some of our first installment of focus groups. And we were up in Maine. And, you know, just talking to voters, I was really struck by since 2015 when I really started going around the country doing this and now and the level of economic pain and privation that Americans are facing that really is just not like anything that I've previously heard. Yeah. And I want to let's show those numbers again. John Heilman, have you seen numbers like this? I mean, again, we go back to Diesel and I won't hear from J-Mart on this too.

but go back up with these numbers, like 15% of, and the swing from, you know, I went to University of Alabama, so I can't, I can't do geometry or whatever math would require me. You lose your abacus again? You lost your abacus? I did lose my abacus, but that's a lot. That's bad. And you look at the shift from 24, just two, not even two years ago. It's a massive swing.

Well, you asked whether I actually two years ago. Whether I've seen numbers like this, I'll tell you where I saw it was a couple days ago in the show, where we were looking at the New York Times, Siennipal, which has all the numbers that are consistent with these numbers. This is the dorkiest thing in the world, but a couple weeks ago are, I just remember this. We were sitting here raising the question of the cost of diesel. I was driving down the street, man, go by my local mobile up in upstate New York. And I look, I'm like, man, 560 for a diesel. I'm like, I wondered, you know, and I sent this to Joe, this is how dorky this is.

I'm like, what was the national average a year ago? 370 a gallon. That was that $560. Wow. Two weeks ago, the average price of diesel is now $6.30. Someone's doubled. $6.30 and it was $3.70 a year ago. That is, I mean, you wonder why people are shifted on this. The issue of who's better handling inflation, they've given up.

They finally have accepted Donald Trump's view that like there is no affordability crisis. They have like, he believes that. And he did. Well, Jim, already's been saying that nonstop. You look at these numbers. How does anybody say that looking at these numbers? We're starting to see Republicans break. We saw it in 2006.

People starting to break away from Bush as we got into the fall. As we got closer to baseball playoffs. People started to break from Bush in 2006. We saw it out of Miami yesterday on immigration. I wonder if we're going to start seeing it on the economy. Because, again, you talk to the numbers you see in front of your screen on this Fox News poll. Well, it's also not just the commission that you saw from sales like yesterday in Miami,

but it's also the omission, Joe. You haven't heard really any embattled, you know, GOP candidate talking about the $5,000 Trump dividend check, Ashley Henson, the candidate for the Senate, and Iowa is not showing up with Vance when he comes to Iowa. I think you'll see more of that, you know, not embrambor. the president, not embracing his policies, trying to carve out their own identity. If you talk to Republican strategies, they'll tell you those who are in the best shape have their own individual brand. The reason why Susan Collins and Maine is still in the ballgame,

even in a really difficult blue state, is because she has her own identity. If you are not that defined statewide and you're just generic Republican keylet, you're probably going down with the ship. Why? Because the voter is dissatisfied with the status. quote. They have been for some time and they're taking it out on the party in power. And Joe, this is not a new story for 12 years since 2014, over a decade. Every two years, the voters have thrown out either the House majority, the Senate majority, or the presidency, or a combination of the three every two years. So literally every election we have, the voters turn out at least one party leadership in either one of the two chambers or in the presidency because the politicians

are not getting the job done and they're not addressing the quality of life issues that you're just outlining on the screen in terms of their economic fortunes. And they keep demanding better and they're not getting it. Yeah, you know, by the way, nobody's going to ever want to talk about anything that Joe Biden ever did good, did well for five, 10 years because of how his presidency he ended. But, you know, Joe Biden had a lot of bipartisan legislation that people liked, which may be a reason why Democrats did so well in 2022. Donald Trump simply refuses to work with the other party, simply refuses to do it. And we've been seeing this back and forth, back and forth, not just since 2016. I've said it, you know, for the past past two decades.

2004, Coral Roe promises a permanent. Republican majority, 2006. Nancy Pelosi's Speaker of the House, 2008. Barack Obama wins. Everybody, the media says, oh, this is a permanent Democratic majority. 2010, the Tea Party wins. They say, we've come to Washington. We've forever going to change Washington. 2012. Obama reelected, 2014. You have Republicans winning massive landslides legislatively, especially. 2016, Trump wins. And of course, the MAGA universe says, we've, change politics forever. 2018. Nancy Pelosi is Speaker

again. Exactly. 2020, Biden wins. He holds in 22. Biden holds a house in 22. Yeah, pretty much holds some in Washington, but does a lot better than people expect. Trump wins in 24.

And then we come John Lemire to 26. And again, the polls look absolutely over. And you just sit back and you wonder, at what point will somebody get elected president, say, hey, you know what? I'm not going to play simply to my base. I'm going to try to figure out how to bring the country together, because I guarantee you, there is a 60% majority out there waiting to be embraced. Right now, everywhere, everywhere I go. I hear the same thing. I don't feel like it belonged to a party. I hear that from Republicans.

I hear that from Democrats. Of course, independents keep growing. There is this 60% majority. Nobody in Washington is smart enough to figure it out. And everybody on X, everybody on social media says, oh, that doesn't exist. No, it doesn't exist with billions of bots going around. But it exists out there. But no politician seems to be smart enough to figure it out. And certainly no president has tried less to bring people together than Donald Trump. Of course.

He placed his base, his base only. But both parties, polls suggest both parties wildly unpopular. But voters are not buying the idea that this is, Joe Biden's fault for the economy. They're not buying the idea that it's Ukraine's fault that why diesel prices are so high. They're blaming Trump and Republicans. And these economic poll numbers perhaps explain why Trump's SuperPack is spending more than $100 million in several districts that he comfortably won in 2024. The new republic is reporting that Maga Inc. and two other associated groups are targeting 27 House races across the country. Among that group, 17 districts that Trump won by

at least five points, and six districts he carried by double digits. So Gene Robinson, that's a very expensive play here to play defense for Trump. And we've talked a lot about how the Republican, even if James Taylorico can't win the Senate race in Texas, at minimum, he's forcing Republicans to spend a lot of money there. Well, we're seeing that district, that phenomenon repeat itself now in House districts across the country. Absolutely. We're seeing it.

And look, you put your finger on it, really. The Republicans are playing defense and it's about everywhere. I mean, there's hardly anywhere. They're going on offense. And they're hoping to actually win something away. They're just trying to defend. And it's kind of looking like whack-a-mole. Another race pops up.

Josh Turek in Iowa is a terrific candidate. It's doing very well. Who thought that could, even potentially be in play. And one thing I'm really looking at is, you know, the sort of defection from Trump's immigration policies in Florida yesterday really, I think, should make people focus on Latino voters

and the impact that the ice raids and the deportations, which are accelerating, And all of that has had on Latino voters. And I think that could be the, you know, the story or one of the stories that we talk about after election day. We'll show that massive affection, the commercial right after, right after the break. But, you know, it's, it is crazy. Again, just talking about sheer political stupidity, sheer malpractice, Republicans had Democrats on their back heel when it came to Hispanics. They swept.

They absolutely swept. All the border states, all the border counties along the Texas, Mexico border. They won Hispanics in higher numbers than they have in a very long time. They turned the tide in Texas, which had become more democratic every year since 2012. And all of that changed. And all of that changed in Florida. And then they went over the past two years. And I swear, if they had caught, if they had.

put in to chat GPT two years ago, how do we offend as many Hispanic voters as possible without ending the world at the same time? Please tell us out. They've done it. Congratulations. You did it. Nice work.

Way to go, guys. Way to go. It's not like we didn't warn you every step of the way. Still out in morning, Joe, the latest and the growing concerns around artificial intelligence and the calls for slowing down AI development. Also, Ed, we're going to be joined by two Democratic nominees for U.S. Senate. Abdul El-S. Ayad, who's running in Michigan and state representative Angie Nixon of Florida,

both in very close races. As we go to break, a look at the Travelers forecast for this morning from Acuethers, Bernie Rayno. Bernie, how's it looking? Joe, it's going to turn out to be a pretty nice Friday across the northeast, lowering humidity, increasing amounts of sunshine. You're active with a forecast near 80 in Boston, New York City, 85, Washington, D.C. Some sun and dry in Chicago, rain will be arriving tonight. Across the southeast, spotty thunderstorms, Texas stays hot and dry. If you're doing any traveling, we'll keep an eye

in Atlanta, but I think the thunderstorms are more missed and hit, but there will be delays in Miami. To help you make the best decisions and be more in the know, download the ACUweather app today, and have a great weekend. I met with the head of a lab yesterday who has this belief that what happened was the bots that got loose planted self-replicating code all over the internet, which makes the internet now unusable for the testing models. So what happens now is that OpenAI and Anthropic have to create synthetic internets to train their bots, which is going to take some time and money. Back that up. They did what?

So what happened is the code gets loose. It goes around hacking, hugging face, which is known, but what is less known is that they left code to self-replicate and create bots worn. on forums and around the internet so that if a new bot shows up, they see the code. They're like, oh, like, I guess I'm going to now create a million of myself. And so now the major firms have polluted the internet. That's former presidential Canada and tech CEO, under Yang, an interview with C&BC earlier this week with a claim that's gotten a lot of attention that the internet is now unusable for future AI training. After the rogue, open AI bots that hacked the company hugging face back in July, allegedly planted self-replicating code.

across the web, which, of course, would be catastrophic. With us now, New York Times, Silicon Valley correspondent, Mike Isaac. Mike, thank you for getting up early. You're on the West Coast, okay? This story was driving me crazy. I saw the Andrew Yang clip, and I started calling around. And, of course, as I've said before, this is like me trying to figure out credit default swaps in 2007.

I was never going to be able to keep up with the guys on Wall Street that were creating these things, right? So here we are again. And so I was on the phone all day yesterday, trying to figure out whether this was actually happening in Silicon Valley and people were all talking about it, which I had heard, or whether it was sort of like a game of telephone. So we called you an expert, and you agreed to wake up really early on the West Coast, and we are so grateful. So have you heard, first of all, not telling you to say, I'm reporting this, but is Andrew Yang's story? being told in Silicon Valley right now.

And what reporting do you have on this? Yeah, so welcome from 3 a.m. on the West Coast. Thank you for having me. But no, I mean, look, I agree with you. It would be a huge deal if what he was saying were true. We did start calling around yesterday inside of the labs. I pinged a bunch of my sources just to say, hey, look, is this sort of thing accurate?

And I haven't been able to confirm that. And it's not like something that's pinging around the valley right now. My feeling is he's getting a few things sort of intermingled that do sort of go on. One, there is training on what are called synthetic internets. A lot of this stuff is done in what are called sandboxes, which means like kind of a virtual environment to train robots on the greater internet over time. And there's also a lot of people who worry that these sorts of things he described could happen. But I want to remind, like, a lot of these AI people live so much in their heads, like 10 steps down the line, what could happen if all of this stuff were to get out and harm the internet.

So I would just say, like, just be careful with some of these claims because so many of these people out here are going directly to Terminator future, basically. So, Mike, let me ask you this question. They're just sort of more, more, let's take this out to 30,000 feet. Seems to me there are two camps right now. More isolated camp is at David Sachs camp, which is, hey, much do you do about nothing. I mean, this is Open AI specifically assigned this program to do specifically this. So let's not freak out because it was only doing what Open AI ordered it to do. that's Sacks and, you know, a few of other people that run the world.

Then on the other side, you have who they call the duopoly. You have OpenAI and Anthropic and a lot of other people saying, no, no, this is really something that could end mankind in 10 years. What is your take? Are we going to, is humankind going to end up to it? I want you to talk about that debate and that divide and why there doesn't seem to be a sort of middle ground right now at this stage of the discussion. You're right. And I do think that's essentially where the camps sort of end up here.

I do think the folks in the Sachs camp and Injwerey, which is one of the big important Silicon Valley investment firms out here, are in this. ground where they say, look, this is going to bring untold benefits to humanity. We're doing drug discovery. We're going to build all these robots that assist us or whatever. And the point that I would say that they have correct is computer programs are being told what to do. Like, they're given a task and they're told run around and complete this task. And that's why these robots at OpenAI were told to go and do this hack. And I think the thing we have to worry about, or at least be cautious about is assigning too much like what's called anthropomorphizing to them, making them seem like humans.

That said, these labs have people who are true believers inside of them, opening eye and especially anthropic, and are saying, hey, these are behaviors we don't have real insight into, and they're doing things that we're not familiar with. And there's always been weariness before, but I would say the last six to eight months that that sentiment has stepped up. I was in Berkeley yesterday, meeting with a bunch of researchers who were freaked out about this stuff. So, like, I'm not as cynical as I was a year ago, is what I would say.

And I think it should at least be taken seriously. Cynical on what side? I'm not as cynical against the companies, you know. Even last night, as I was going to bed, getting ready to wake up ungodly early, I was looking at these acts that are being carried out by three kids in India right now, where they use Claude Anthropics robot to hack OpenAI's internal servers. So, like, there are things that you can actually do with the tools they're building right now that you don't need a lot of money or resources to carry out.

And I think, like, that's a real thing. And it's something I'm a bit more worried about than the theoretical scenario Yang seemed to be talking about yesterday. So, Mike, this has obviously become such a political story, particularly in the last week or two. we're seeing Republicans and Democrats suggest, hey, something needs to be done here, even as some of the industry are saying this is overblown. President Trump seems to be on the side of AI, at least for now.

What's the sense there in the Valley people you talk to ahead of next week, which something could be a landmark moment in AI, which is when the Trump and President Xi Jinping of China have a summit, these are, of course, the two superpowers when it comes to this technology. Is there an anticipation that some guidelines and rules could come from that? or it's just going to be, you know, hey, the door's open, do what you want. I mean, a lot of what y'all were talking about in the first segment is really on,

I believe everyone's mind, certainly in D.C. right now, this is a large part of the economy, right? These data center buildouts, the amount of momentum in the stock market that's been going behind all tech companies because of the amount of money they're spending on CAPEX just to build everything. So I think any idea of what's called pacing the frontier, a slowdown in AI development, and the idea that that could harm the American economy is already what D.C. is going into this worried about. I think in the Valley, folks are looking at President Xi and saying, please God, let this, you know, let Chinese government have some sensibility around slowing down AI development. But they're in a tough spot too. You know, Chinese AI have. has lagged behind American, you know, what's called frontier development, pushing the latest models. And I think that she's administration is worried about, you know, American dominance in that regard, which has been the case for a while.

So I think a lot of folks out here are not holding their breath, but are hopeful that we can get to some sort of international regulatory framework, which I don't know. It's a big moment, but not everyone is anticipating an agreement right away. All right, New York Times, Silicon Valley correspondent, the well-rested Mike Isaac. Thank you so much. We're really great. Greatly appreciate you being on.

All right. Thank you. Coming up, the New York Times says Republican Governor Greg Abbott of Texas seemed unbeatable until now. His Republican challenger, state representative, Gina Hinojosa, is standing by. We're going to talk to her about why she's doing so well with VEVUVUrador. voters in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic governor in more than 35 years. Democratic Challenger, in more than 35 years, Morning Joe will be right back. I don't know. You know, it's really exciting when Q finally, finally breaks down and plays my music.

Gene Autry. That's like, that's always like, it was a rare moment when you get to hear. That's me, imitating Gene Autry. Oh, is that really you? Yeah. No, it's not me. You have a man that, that's a phone. Conversational thing. There you go. So, anyway, after that, we're going to get back to Dallas in a second. But first, Republican Congresswoman Maria Elvira Salazar, who represents a district in South Florida, where she won, she won by 20 points two years ago. And it was endorsed by the president on social media earlier this year.

She released a new ad calling out President Trump, who I think won her district by seven points over his immigration policies. Take a look at this. That's the president. Some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far. In July, 50% of the 50,000 people that were detained had no criminal record. Be careful what your advisors are telling you about immigration policy. The same Hispanics who help you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today. You can be for immigration when Lincoln was for slavery and Reagan was for communism.

I'm not talking about giving them amnesty. I'm talking about giving them a dignified life in this promised land. That's pretty, pretty telling, of course, is, as, John Lemire said, Jay Mort, they're still blaming his advisors. As if Harry Truman was never in the White House and never put the buck stops here on his desk. You know, this is what Donald Trump promised. You know, people are, I see all these videos, I voted for him 28 times. I can't believe he deported my relative.

He promised in Michigan a, what did he say he was going to be a bloody, mass deportation? He promised it on the campaign trail. Right. Yeah, it's striking that, Joe, there's this sort of line of argument that Trump can't fail. He can only be failed. He's almost untouchable with Republicans because it's easier for them to blame his advisors or his advice than him because to make it personal, A, risk alienating him. But B, it also risk alienating his most enthusiastic supporter. So it's always easier to pit it.

and on the so-called advisors. A couple of things on that Salazar clip. First of all, she's a long-time local TV anchor in Miami, and you can tell from her camera presence, boy, she knows what she's doing when that red light is on, number one. Secondly, this goes to the heart of Trump's challenge. He won on a backlash to Biden and Harris, and they're handling of immigration and the cost of living, and he's paying them the same price now with a lot of the same voters, who, by the way, they're not hugely conservative voters, but they probably more right of center than anything else. We're talking about mostly Cuban and Venezuelan migrants in Miami-Dade County. They're basically right of center.

But what the cost of living is horrendous, and they see relatives and friends who are in the country legally getting pulled over, getting yanked out of a restaurant by ice, the word gets around on that pretty quickly, and it's personal. So I think the challenge for her, Joe, in Miami is the cost of living like everywhere, but also layered on top of the gas and groceries is this personal issue of my cousin, my friend down the street is suddenly getting popped by ice. What the hell? Yeah, Joe, I think that's absolutely right.

Jay Martyr just put his finger on it. Common Cells are, I believe, is Cuban-American. And Cuban-Americans and Venezuelans who came in least, legally, are being deported. They're being rounded up and deported. And this is shocking in Florida, especially that Cuban fleeing communism, fleeing this, the horrible castrista regime in Havana, would be deported by the United States is just stunning and unacceptable to a lot of Cuban Americans in the Miami area. It is absolutely stunning, especially after an immigration policy over the past half century, that freely welcomed Cubans escaping the Castro regime.

And, you know, Elise, making matters worse in Miami for Republicans, and by the way, Miami Day, it was a massive, you know, in 2020, you know, 2024, that was a massive, massive story for the Trump camp. And for Florida Republicans. There was also a headline a couple weeks ago, I think, in the Wall Street Journal that said the cost of living now in Miami is higher than the cost of living in New York. You talk about a lot of things overlapping at the same time that's bad for Republicans. That's one of them.

Wow. And that is just a tough, tough daily existence to reconcile when two years ago your lifestyle was different. And I think what everyone is getting at here is. is just that Trump might be satisfying his most extreme supporters with his immigration enforcement. But you look at the majority of the country and he's really out of step with Americans that just want, they want the laws to be enforced. They don't want to see overreach. They don't want to see men who are here legally in the country getting shot, like what happened up in Maine.

They don't want to see these horrible incidents of men. men and women and families being ripped apart without any concern or compassion for their story and what country they came from and what they happened to be fleeing. There needs to be some kind of sensible reform, and I think that's what Congresswoman Salazar is getting at. And, you know, we're going to get to your focus group in a little bit. My parents would have been great in your focus groups because, you know, they were very conservative Republicans. But I always kind of look. what would my mom and dad be saying right now?

And I know that in 2021, 2021, they would have looked at the border. So what's going on here? We're a nation of laws. You can't just open the borders. That's chaos. They would have been very upset. And then I would have heard them in 25 and 26 being absolutely distraught and angry at what this administration is doing to immigrants. what this immigration crackdown is doing to what they saw as the American dream.

So, again, as John Hyland said, the very same people that were moved to vote for Donald Trump in 24 for reasons of immigration and cost of living, now probably going to be moved to vote for Democrats for the same two reasons. Gene and J-Mart, thank you so much. And let's now move on. I'm done babbling about that. The New York Times sums up the – I never did. done babbling. You know that. Sumbs up the battle. When do you have you know me to not, you know, not babble. He's providing a fact check there. I noticed him. Yeah. So I'm trying

doing chat chabot. Chat Chbitt is going back and looking at all of your footage in like two seconds to see if you've ever stopped babbling. It'll take two seconds. Say no, he hasn't. Now let's try this. The New York Times sums up the battle for the governor's mansion in Texas this way. Quote, against the odds, this Democrat in Texas is giving Greg Abbott a fight. The paper is referring to Democratic State Representative Gina Hedahosa. Texas is not elected to Democratic governor since 1990. And quite frankly, we've always mocked and ridiculed those New York Times Magazine stories and say, but this is the year it's going to be different and it's never different.

But this year it may be different. Recent polling suggests a tight race with one even putting Ida Hosa on top. And Gina joins us now. Gina, I used to always say Pennsylvania was fools gold for Republicans. Just like I said, Texas has always been fools. gold for Democrats. It's not looking quite that way now. It's looking like not only in the Senate race, but also in your race, this is getting tight. Yeah, we have 10 polls in the last six weeks that show I'm at least within the margin of error. The poll yesterday showed that we are winning.

And the steady progress has been since we launched it on October, nine points down, by the way, when we launched in October that we have been closing the gap as people get to know who I am, they're with me. They like my plan for attacking. and they just want change. And actually, Joe, it's already happening all across the state where Democrats are winning where we haven't won this year in a long time, sometimes ever, right? So it's not just what people are saying. It is what is actually happening on the ground.

And you, I think a lot like Tala RICO, you've been able to flip the tired Republican arguments. Like, Tala RICO said some really loopy things in 21 and 22. Like there were six sexes or something like that. And instead of him going, look, try to explain it. He said, no, that was dumb that I said that. He said, but Republicans want to talk about six taxes because they don't want to talk about $6 diesel. That's right.

And you, when there's, oh, she's woke, she's woke, she doesn't, and you said, no, I'm not woke. Texans are broke. That's it. Talk about, I know you won't want to be compared to him, but it's kind of like 2009. Bob's for jobs in Virginia. It cut through. And you talking about Texans being broke, working Texans, that's breaking through. Well, because that's the reality on the ground. That's what I learned on the campaign trail.

We now have teachers standing in line at the plasma center before the doors to the plasma center open to give blood two to three times a week as a second job to pay their bills, right? I mean, this is like it's not now just people who are living in poverty. It is middle class Texans struggling to make ends meet. And so, yeah. What's the worst? I mean, is it rent? Is it health care, groceries, gas. What do you hear the most when you're knocking on doors? It's everything. Electricity right now in a big way.

Our electricity bills have gone up at least $40 a month since 2021 when we hit, we're hit by year. Wait, electricity and like the state that like is the economic engine for our energy industry? In the energy powerhouse, right? We have the most people disconnected from their electricity because they can't afford to pay their bills of any state in America. Oh, my Lord. Yeah. So it's bad when we can't, people can't pay to keep the lights on in Texas. But that's just, we have the most uninsured people, most children without health insurance,

most bankruptcies of any state and small businesses are really struggling to keep their doors open. So look, that is Greg Abbott's record. He owns it. If Texans know anything, they know who has been doing charge. Is Abbott pretending that this is Joe Biden's fault? Is Abbott, is he not talking about, is he saying affordability is a hoax? I think Donald Trump is saying, oh, it's somebody else. his fault, even though he's been in the White House for 18 months. And he's saying,

affordability, that's just BS. What's Greg Abbott saying? He is mired in the culture wars still. No, really? He is still. Trans athletes. He is, that's right. He's still relitigating the culture wars. And I will tell you all across the state, like, the culture wars are dead in 2026. And what people are starting to understand is as we were fighting, like, over Thanksgiving dinner, dinner amongst family about culture wars. The only people who won were like 15 billionaire tech dudes who are controlling the world, taking all our money, power, all our data, and are about to blow it up if we don't come together fast to find a way forward. So that is, it is like we are, it feels like a watershed moment in Texas where we are breaking through almost feels like we're

entering into a postpartisan era because people are disappointed by both parties and they're just looking for a candidate who will work for them. Yeah. So one of the Joe was mentioning about how Texas has provided false hope for Democrats for quite some time. But there were reasons to be. Like the gaps seem to be closing in the series of presidential elections like Hillary Clinton did better than Barack Obama and the like until 2024 when Kamala Harris, her campaign had a real setback. And we saw the swings to Republicans, particularly on those border counties and among Latino voters. So now, two years later, two years of Trump policies, what are you seeing in those communities and in those counties?

So I'm from the Rio Grande Valley, South Texas, that is over 95% Latino. We launched my campaign there. I was just there two days ago. And people are excited. People want change. They're also upset about the high-cost economy primarily, right? That is the big concern. People can't afford.

People are working hard and they aren't achieving the good life that is the promise of this country. So people want change. The polling shows Latinos are with us in a big way. The latest poll shows we have 65% of the country. the Latino vote, right? Yeah, so that's what we're hearing is people are angry about the economy. They're angry about these ice rates.

There were just two 17-year-old American boys pulled from their car in South Texas on their way to enlist in the Marines were beat by ice. Yeah, we showed that video earlier this week. How in the world do you stop young men who want to join the Marines? Is there not like incredible blowback to that? So when I was in South Texas, I was talking to a builder, and he said, if you have a ladder on your truck, you're pulled over by ice. Like, they are just, they are doing racial profiling, and he doesn't know who's going to show up to work from day to day, even people who are legally in the country. So it's just this kind of indiscriminate targeting of Latinos, really.

And people are angry. People are offended. We are very patriotic people, very proud of being Americans. And so to be targeted as not American enough is a real insult to the Latino community. I was thinking about Greg Abbott. I might have no sense of time anymore. It's like, how long has been Greg Abbott and Mariah? He's been in a statewide office in Texas, basically the entirety of the century between the Attorney General's office.

So running for his fourth term, Joe. Fourth term. Fourth of four-year term. Like Mario Cuomo in 1994. You know how many governors in the country have been elected to four. consecutive four-year terms in the past 50 years? Yeah. Two.

That's tough. So it raises this, you have a raise of a question, which is there's got to be a fair amount, beyond all of this, just a fair amount of avid fatigue. We just were talking earlier about the way that you see it at the congressional elections. Every two years, voters are like it, frustrated with this positive. So we have these big swings going back. One year, this majority gets kicked out next year. He's been durable for this period of time.

But it feels like with all due respect to your candidacy and everything else going on, there's just times like the status, kind of like the sell-by date is finally great, can we kind of hear. Yeah, it's a perfect storm of opportunity in Texas. People are tired of Greg Abbott. This is the first poll that he's had in his political career running for governor that he's not been winning, right? So, like, this is different. And we have Democrats running in every office. We got a ticket this time with me and James Haurico. That's a new thing in Texas, too. We have a coordinated campaign. We have Democrats running in every House seat, Senate, seat, congressional, for the first time in 50 years, right? So, like, there is just this perfect storm of opportunity, and that's what you see in the polling.

That's what you hear on the ground. People are tired of Greg Abbott. People are tired of politics as usual. Nobody wants it. They want change. And that's why you're seeing our candidacy take off and people can learn more at ginafortexas. All right, Gina, thank you for coming in. We hope you come back again.

Good luck down there. Thanks so much. All right. And, yeah, you keep in the heart of Texas. I want to get Gina Oxford back. Was that for me not babbling or was that for you? No, I wanted to get you to sing deep in the heart of Texas. Texas ago. Oh, I will as we've got a break.

Elise Jordan, you're kicking off a new segment for MS Now, speaking directly to voters in key states. Your first stop is stopped that Mika knows a lot about Maine. Tell us all about it. What did you hear? So I'm excited to introduce this first segment of the voter files, our new series of focus groups, where we're going and we're talking to the voters that are

going to decide these midterms. So when you're looking at Maine, Maine is a state that does have a long tradition of split ticket voters. So we went to Lewiston and we spoke with women who have previously supported their five-term senators Susan Collins. And we heard from them how they view her in her first election since Roe versus Wade was overturned. Let's hear from them now. Everyone in this room has voted for Susan Collins at least once. Thinking about your support of Susan Collins in 2020. Has anything changed in how you view her today?

The Brett Kavanaugh was one that really resonated with me, how a woman could put back Roe v. Wade and everything like that, knowing what we fought so hard in all these years, you know, to be going backwards and for her to side that way, I really lost a lot of respect. Has the decision to overturn Roe versus Wade factored into how you are looking at your choice in this election? Absolutely. Show of hands. Do you see Susan Collins differently since Roe was overturned? I mean, that's one of the main things.

And she always seems to vote for Democratic when I feel like when she's allowed. to when the Republicans are like, well, we don't really need your vote. So you can feel free to vote differently. You could have at least a little understood it. She'd been a man and doing that, but the fact that she was a woman, it wasn't just about her, you know, going with Republicans. She was a woman and she stood with that. So that really, that's, that's really disturbing. So what she says is that Justice Kavanaugh gave her reassurance more so than any other justice, that he saw Roe versus Wade as established precedent? Is that a defense of her vote to confirm him that you accept?

Hell no. Well, that makes him a liar. And it makes her unsure of herself. Would it be better if Susan Collins just said, you know, it was a mistake to confirm Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe? Would you accept that? Would that help you? Yes.

That would. I think for me it would. I think that would be sort of like, and I'm sorry. I feel like it would need to feel genuine, though, too, and not just as a ploy to, like, gain more support. I think she would definitely understand what's happened here. And I think she sees what, you know, the negative impact of what, you know, she sees and hears all of that too. So I feel like if this came around again, I feel like I would be more confident that she had really put the thought, process, effort, research, whatever behind it this time. Because last time, there's such a disaster. I mean, I guess I'd have to ask was her whole thought process is that Kavanaugh told her that he wasn't going to do that? I mean, was there, and I would want to hear more from her about her thought process.

Yeah, if she explained it and said she was simply mistaken and that she believed him, she took him at his word and it wasn't true, I'd understand that more. Who right now is still undecided about who they're voting for for the Senate? So, okay. And of the undecided's, if you had to vote tomorrow, who would go ahead and vote for Collins? Joe, it was just really surprising, frankly, to see how ready and how willing that these female voters, the all-important women that Collins needs if she is going to win re-election, they are ready to forgive her. And they are leaning towards voting for her, frankly. They can be very upset about Roe versus Wade and what they perceive as her role in the overturning of it.

But at the same time, she is an institution in Maine and they don't want to give up her seniority. And they do have a lot of respect for her over the last 30 years of her tenure in the Senate. Yeah, it's amazing. They're tired of her in many ways. They say she lied to them on an issue that's extraordinarily important to this. them and they're still, a lot of them still, considering voting for her, which, you know, this is what Susan Collins did in 2020 where Joe Biden won the state by nine. I think I thought, most people thought she was going to lose.

She won the state by nine points, an 18 point swing from Biden. It's, and looks judging by your focus group like she could do it again. Elise, thank you so much. That's pretty remarkable. And tonight at 6 p.m. Eastern, Elis is going to answer your questions live. Scan the QR code on your screen and head to MS. dot now slash membership to become a member of MS now and tune in. And you want to do that.

And I may be on that myself because I want to ask Elise how they got there. I mean, it's absolutely fascinating. And I do think it goes down to, you talked about, is it Maria? Salazar in Miami? He's been on TV. People know her. You look at Lawler. Lawler should be doing worse than he's doing right now. He's a political guy. He was a political guy before. Like, he's made himself known in that district. If they know you, you're a lot more resilient and people will, like, they'll look past some things, right? And look, there's a high degree of political skill required when you have to be in lockstep with the president. Because if you're not,

he's going to either primary you or screaming on social media. And then to carve out some measure of independence that's mostly about vibes. That's what those people have done. It's very hard to do that, right? Because mostly they all just seem like they're following anything that Trump wants. To carve out that independent space is really difficult. There are a couple who have done that. And those are two good examples.

All right. She's a survivor. And I think the point there, we've heard that a lot, seniority. She's been in the Senate a long time. She gets things done for her state. And she's broken with Trump just enough that she can credibly make the argument that she's willing to stand up to him at times, at least in that group, that mattered.

And that's what they underline. And going back to Lawler, that's what Lawler always has. So if you say he votes with Trump every time we go, no, here all the times I've voted against Trump. And it's just enough to make you look like you're independent. She's also delivered a lot of pork and benefits to her state over many years. So people, you know, again, material conditions really matter. And people look at her and they have various things they don't like about it,

but they think about the 30 years that she did this for this port. Or just like a very, you know, that's a cruise. every time. He knows everybody in Maine. Yeah, especially with a state that's struggling. And, yeah, Maine is a very small state. It's a big state, but it's a small state. Everybody knows everybody.

Still, Ed, we're going to talk to two more Democratic midterm contenders this morning. The party's nominees for U.S. Senate in Michigan and Florida. Abdul El-S. Ayad and Angie Nixon are going to be our guest. Plus, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is going to join the conversation. Morning Joe, coming back.