Morning Joe - Morning Joe 10/16/23

Episode Date: October 16, 2023

The humanitarian crisis worsens as the Israel-Hamas war enters its second week 

There's limited fighting already on the northern Israeli border, and I wonder what is your message to Hezbollah and its backer, Iran? Don't, don't, don't, don't. Don't come across the border, don't escalate this war. That's right. Is Iran behind the Gaza war? I don't wanna get into classified information, but to be very blunt with you,

there is no clear evidence of that. President Biden yesterday on 60 Minutes, doubling down on a warning to others in the Middle East. It comes as the U.S. military is increasing its presence in the region amid a threat from Iran and Hezbollah. And U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken back in Israel this morning to continue diplomatic talks after a weekend of meetings with leaders in the Middle East. Meanwhile, in Gaza, Palestinian civilians are in dire need of humanitarian aid. We'll go live to Israel-Gaza border for the very latest on all of that in just a moment. Also ahead, an update on the of that in just a moment. Also ahead,

an update on the speaker's race here at home. Republicans have a vote planned for tomorrow, but it appears the nominee once again does not have the support needed to win. And there is so much news on this Monday morning. There really is. And probably the most important election in Europe over the past decade. I don't think that's an overstatement in Poland. Right now, it looks like the pro-West, pro-European party, our coalition is coming from behind. It'll probably overtake the Law and Justice Party. But we shall see. It's going to it's going to be very close there. Yeah, big moves. And good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Monday, October 16th

with us. We have the host of Way Too Early, White House bureau chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire, U.S. special correspondent for BBC News, Katty Kaye, and former chief of staff at the CIA and Department of Defense, Jeremy Bash. He's an NBC News national security analyst. Let's dive right into the very latest out of the Israel-Hamas war. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken told reporters yesterday that Egypt will reopen its border, crossing into Gaza for aid. The humanitarian crisis there continues to grow. According to the U.N., hospitals in Gaza are expected to run out of generator fuel within 24 hours. This as the territory's 2.3 million people do not have access to clean running water and are nearly out of food and medical supplies.

600,000 Palestinians have been displaced from Gaza so far after leaving the northern part of the area in the wake of Friday's evacuation order by Israel. The Israel Defense Forces say Hamas is preventing some of those people from leaving and that many are getting stuck in traffic caused by the terror group's roadblocks. Let's go to the Israel-Gaza border. NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel. Richard, of course, humanitarian crisis continues to grow there. There is some word that Egypt reluctantly is going to open that border, their border

with Gaza. Get us up to date on that and everything else that's developing this morning. So good morning. And there's still considerable confusion about the Rafah border crossing, which is the border crossing between Egypt and the Gaza Strip. And there is, according to U.S. officials, Egyptian officials, a deal and that the deal is supposed to have begun already. But it hasn't been implemented. The border crossing for right now is still closed. There are hundreds of families, including Palestinian-Americans, who are waiting at that border crossing on the Gaza side.

They thought they were going to be going through today, but it hasn't happened yet. And on the other side, on the Egyptian side of the border, there's humanitarian aid sitting there, food and water that is supposed to go in. The people who are on the border, and we've been speaking to some of them this morning, are tired, they're anxious, they're frustrated,

because this has been going on for days where they've been just sitting in Gaza, they're anxious, they're frustrated, because this has been going on for days where they've been just sitting in Gaza in the heat, waiting to try and get out, complicated, it seems like, by bureaucratic issues in a fight, in a diplomatic misunderstanding or row. Here in Israel, some developments this morning. So this area where I am right now, which is in southern Israel, not far from the Gaza Strip, that's Gaza City behind me, this area has been declared a closed military area. So civilians have been encouraged,

sometimes forced to evacuate so that the military can operate here and to protect civilians in case Hamas fires mortars, short-range rockets into this area, and it has been doing that. The new development today is just in the last couple of hours. Israel has announced it's going to evacuate 28 communities in northern Israel as well along the Lebanese border. So you're going to have quite soon two parts of this country. The northern border and the southern border both declared closed military zones out of

fear that Hamas could be firing rockets or fire even more rockets and artillery from the Gaza Strip and that Hezbollah in the north could intensify its barrages. And then this morning, Israel updated the number of hostages that it says Hamas captured in its raid. Initially, there was a lot of confusion. These numbers have been moving. If you remember in the early days, we talked about 50 and then 120 and 150. Now Israel says that 199 people were taken by Hamas into Gaza. Richard, could you help us with an explanation on Egypt and other Arab countries? I've had a

lot of people ask me over the weekend why Arab countries that will profess their dedication to the Palestinian cause are so reluctant to let them in. Egypt's at the top of that list, of course, for a number of reasons. But we've seen it over the past decade, other Arab countries growing more and more distant with the Palestinian cause, cutting their own peace deal with Israelis and cutting the Palestinians out. Could you explain to American viewers and others watching why that is? Why are Arab countries so reluctant to help these Palestinian refugees? A lot of this has to do with the history of the Palestinian people going back to the formation of the state of Israel in 1948. When Israel was first formed, early Zionist settlers came here. And

then after the Holocaust, many more Jews came from around the world. I'm not going to retell the whole history of the Israeli state, but it is important to answer your question. So when the Arab world attacked Israel in 1948, there were many Palestinians who were suddenly made refugees and they were displaced. And then when the Arab world attacked Israel again in 1967, a new wave of refugees was created. Those Palestinian refugees are still displaced around the world. They are still displaced in in the West Bank. They are still displaced in Lebanon. And what Egypt and other Arab countries fear is that we could see another repetition of that same cycle where a large group of Palestinians is displaced once again and that they will be permanently displaced.

And that if Egypt opens the door, you will have another situation where you could have a million Egyptian, a million Palestinians living inside Egypt for the next several decades or next several centuries. And the Arab countries are nervous about that precedent. Traditionally, the Arab position has been that all of these Palestinians who were displaced in wars with Israel should return back to their own homes. But that's their ideological framework. In practical terms, there is a lot of criticism, even within the Arab world, that the Arab world isn't doing more, that they are relying on this historic argument in order not to give people aid, that they don't want to open their borders and have a large refugee community sitting on Egyptian soil that they'll have to care for, that there could be security concerns because some of those people might be militants. And if you ask the people of Gaza, they are furious with the Arab world.

They say the Arab world pays lip service to the Palestinian people. They say that you turn on Al Jazeera and all you hear all day long is sympathy for the Arab world, sympathy for the Arab world, sympathy for the Palestinian people. But the Arabs are not opening their borders instead, using these these historic arguments to justify why they can't. All right. NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel, we thank you so much. Greatly appreciate it. And, you know, Katie Kay, what Richard said is is so so dead on, so accurate. And and I know you've talked to Arab leaders and Arab diplomats through the years. And I can at least tell you the ones I've spoken to for years have have been not only dismissive of the Palestinian cause,

but openly critical of the Palestinians time and time again. And so because when situations like this occur, I always I call around and I ask, why aren't you doing more to help the Palestinians through this crisis? And and there is a I'll just say it. There's there's almost an open contempt for for Palestinians who they believe time and again have missed opportunities to strike peace. And it looks like it's happening again. But it looks also like Tony Blinken is finally getting Egypt to open that border to provide some sort of relief for Palestinians. Tony Blinken's priority is to try and get, obviously, the 400-odd Palestinian Americans who are trapped in Gaza at the moment out of Gaza before the land invasion happens from the Israeli side. And so the only way to get them out is through that border, through the Rafah crossing into Egypt. There seems to be some confusion

about why the border isn't open. It should be open, according to this deal. It looks like now, but it doesn't seem to be at the moment. And then to get aid back in again. But I think, you know, Richard pointed to two very important things. And I spent 18 years of my life living in the Middle East. And always the mantra was that we support very much the Palestinians. In practice, nothing very much was done because of those historical reasons that they felt the Palestinians should be able to stay in Palestine and they didn't want them coming into their own countries. But really, at the moment, it's particularly as well from the Egyptian side is that they don't want to open those gates and suddenly find that they have a flood of Hamas militants infiltrating those civilians who might be leaving

and meeting up with the Muslim Brotherhood in their own countries. And all of these countries, all of these Arab countries are dealing with extremist groups in their own countries, and they don't want those extremist groups joining up with Palestinian extremist groups. So they say one thing, but in practice over the last 20, 30 years, they haven't done very much to support the Palestinian cause. Well, three senior officers in Israel's military tell the New York Times Israel is preparing a large scale invasion of the Gaza Strip with the goal of destroying Hamas leadership. Meanwhile, Axios is reporting that Iran's foreign minister told the U.N. envoy to the Middle East that if Israel follows through with its anticipated ground defensive,

Iran will have to respond. And now the U.S. is sending a second aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean, led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower. The Wall Street Journal reports the move is meant to dissuade others, particularly Hezbollah, from joining the conflict. Joining us now, spokesman for the Israeli Defense Forces, Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lerner. Thank you very much for being on with us this morning. Given what I just read, the reporting about Iran, watching closely to see the next move by Israel, how do you work on a response while hopefully not creating a wider war? Is that in the thought process here? Good morning to you. I'd like to add perhaps to your discussion with Richard about the Arab world and how people are actually looking at this. Now, Hamas is the governing body. It's a terrorist organization, but it is the government of Gaza.

And the Yigya Sinwa, the prime minister, who is the mastermind of the massacre, he instructed and orchestrated the diabolical attack against Israel and our communities on the 7th of October. So I'd like to add, I think that there is also a general disdain and a letdown by the Arab leaders towards Hamas for deciding to go to war against Israel without taking into consideration the repercussions. I think it's basic decency against the butchery of Hamas that people are saying, why do we need to bend over backwards for this terrorist organization after they did this to their own people. And to relate back to your question, of course, the CF has recruited some 300,000 reservists in order to be prepared for any eventuality.

If the government instructs us to mobilize on the ground, we will be prepared. We are currently striking Hamas extensively from the air. We are taking out their command and control positions. We're taking out their leaders, the terrorists that actually infiltrated into the Gaza, into the communities of southern Israel. And we are determined to make sure the Gaza Strip can never, ever be used as a staging ground for massacres and butchery in Israel ever again. Lieutenant Colonel, let's talk about the north. We just noted that some towns there have been evacuated in northern Israel near the Lebanon border. What's

the level of activity you're seeing from Hezbollah? And what's the level of concern that you have that the violence there, so far limited to a few skirmishes, but that violence could really grow? So the skirmishes have been in an escalating mode over the last few days. And indeed, there were several anti-tank guided missiles fired at forces and even at civilians along the border. So we have, together with our defense ministry, instructed anybody living within the two-kilometer boundary from the border. So we have, together with our defence ministry, instructed anybody living within the two kilometre boundary from the border itself be evacuated. As you rightly pointed out, that's 28 communities. And that goes to show we take civilians out of the line of fire

where our enemies are bent on our destruction and utilise their own civilians to put them in the line of fire. Now, we have, as I said, the 300,000 reservists that have been recruited are also positioned in the north. So we have strengthened the frontier with Hezbollah on the border with Lebanon. And we are very concerned about the prospects of a conflict with Hezbollah. I would say that it appears that the whole escalation that we've seen over the last few days is under the direction of Iran, which are interested in challenging Israel,

challenging the IDF on the front with Hamas, because they are so invested in the tools of terrorism over the years, whether it's in funding or in training or in equipment. Everything has its roots back in Iran. And that's why they are looking out for their proxies up on the front. So we are determined to destroy Hamas. We are determined that once they broke the rules of the game on Saturday,

October 7th, by penetrating our border, butchering our people, abducting 199 confirmed abductions into the Gaza Strip, and effectively opening the war, they chose to go to war with us. We will win this war. Colonel, what kind of conversations are taking place about what happens after the first days of the invasion of Gaza? If you go in with a land invasion, you talk about the destruction of Hamas. I just wondered how many conversations are happening about who controls Gaza after that? How long do you plan to stay in? It's going to be an extremely difficult military operation, but I imagine there must be some conversations happening about the day after.

Can you give us some light about those? Well, of course, the day after is a core concern, but what we are most concerned about at this time is actually making sure that Hamas never have this ability ever again. You know, Hamas have turned Gaza into this fortress by taking full advantage of all of the civilian arena, putting their own civilians at risk. We're currently on day four of a huge evacuation plan intended to keep people out of harm's way, keep Palestinians out of harm's way, while Hamas on their side are trying to delay that and keep people in harm's way. So the day after is still, it seems to be a quite time away. And I would say that our government has not restricted the time of the operation.

I think as much as time as required in order to fulfill that mission to make sure that Israelis are safe and secure. And that is what we're doing. All right. Spokesman for the Israeli Defense Forces, Lieutenant Colonel Peter Lerner, thank you very much. We hope to see you soon. Thank you for your insight this morning. Now, when we come back in just one minute, we're going to get analysis from Jerry Bash. We're also going to show you Saturday Night Live's extraordinary cold open host, Pete Davidson, explaining why he was the perfect person to open the show during this tragic time. Who better to comment on it than Pete Davidson?

Well, in a lot of ways, I am a good person to talk about it because when I was seven years old, my dad was killed in a terrorist attack. So I know something about what that's like. I saw so many terrible pictures this week of children suffering, Israeli children and Palestinian children. And it took me back to a really horrible, horrible place. And, you know, no one in this world

deserves to suffer like that, you know, especially not kids, you know. After my dad died, my mom tried pretty much everything she could do to cheer me up. I remember one day when I was eight, she got me what she thought was a Disney movie, but it was actually the Eddie Murphy stand-up special, Delirious. And we played it in the car on the way home, and when she heard the things Eddie Murphy was saying, she tried to take it away. But then she noticed something. For the first time in a long time, I was laughing again. I don't understand it. I really don't, and I never will, but sometimes comedy is really the only way forward through tragedy.

My heart is with everyone whose lives have been destroyed this week. But tonight, I'm going to do what I've always done in the face of tragedy, and that's try to be funny. Remember, I said try. And live from New York, it's Saturday night. That was so moving, wasn't it? That was so moving, wasn't it? That was incredible. It was really, really the perfect tone for a comedy show in the midst of this horrific story. And, wow, that was selfless to share the story.

It reminds me of what they did after 9-11. Yeah. Where Giuliani, then the mayor, came out and talked. Yeah. And you had Lorne Michaels saying. And addressed it. Right. And then Lorne Michaels, the dressed it right. And then Lauren Michaels, the same sort of self-deprecating humor. Then Lauren Michaels saying, can we be funny? And

Giuliani's response written, of course, was, well, why start now? Exactly. Pete Davidson just at the end of that incredibly moving. And like you said, it was selfless. It had to be very hard, obviously, but certainly something that hopefully helped others. Our coverage continues now. We want to bring Jeremy Bash into the conversation. And as we're looking at the sort of grand scheme of things between what's going on in Israel now, there are now some 200 hostages, 199 is the number being held in Gaza. So with everything that we've heard so far, especially from the lieutenant, what is the hope that any hostages will be retrieved?

Well, there's no playbook for this, Mika. I mean, to have 200 hostages held, including babies, including the elderly, including this disabled, including potentially 20 American citizens, which obviously is the highest priority of President Biden. Secretary Blinken, Jake Sullivan addressed this yesterday. Essentially, the United States has to go to other countries, go to the government of Qatar, go to the government of Egypt, go to other players in the region and say, whatever influence you have with Hamas right now, we need two things. Number one is we need the

International Red Cross to pay wellness visits to these hostages. That's mandated under international law. And some of them are grievously wounded. Some of them are elderly. They all need medical care. And second, we need to know where they are so that we can begin the process of negotiating their release. I think the idea that the IDF is going to be staging unilateral ground operations to rescue 200 hostages is a very dicey proposition, particularly if they're held in tunnels. And so we need to know where they are and we need to pay wellness visits to them and hopefully get them home. But, Jeremy, the fact that we don't know where they are,

and I haven't heard any reporting of wellness businesses. I mean, how if they're not operating under these rules, is it a little less hopeless than I mean, it doesn't seem it's dire. I mean, let's not sugarcoat it. It is absolutely dire. But it's 200 people. It's very difficult to it's not one soldier like Gilad Shalit, who was moved from safe house to safe house for five years. The IDF soldier who was held and then exchanged for a thousand Palestinian prisoners is 200 people. I mean, it's it's almost impossible to believe that there aren't people who have sightings, who have seen these people, who have information about them. And Hamas does. And I've been talking to leaders from around the region, including several leaders from the Arab world. And they say

there was some discussions in recent days about the release of the civilians. But, you know, things got chaotic and the deal fell apart. Hamas will want a deal for these hostages. If they're going to have to fight Israel, they're going to ultimately want to use them as human shields. I think this is an incredibly dire situation, but I think the United States international partners need to maintain a resolute focus on getting the hostages out. And, and, and Cady, we also talking to the white house and talking to other U S leaders. We also must all admit here. We don't know what's going on behind the scenes. This is one of those moments where Qatar are having a very complex relationship, not only with the United States being an ally of the United States, but also with Hamas, Hezbollah, other terror groups.

These are the moments where U.S. officials start talking to Qatar officials who talk to Hamas. And apparently negotiations continue behind the scenes through Qatar. Qatar also having a close relationship with Iran as well. Remember that spat between Saudi Arabia and Qatar was over Qatar's links with Iran. So it has the right people that it can talk to. If any country in the region can bring about some kind of negotiated hostage swap, perhaps we're hearing reports of it will be initially for children and women, then it would be Qatar, which is, I mean, just watch Tony Blinken's movements over the course of the last few days.

I haven't seen this kind of Middle East shuttle diplomacy since before the invasion of Iraq, when Dick Cheney was flying around the Middle East trying to rally support from Arab countries for the U.S. invasion of Iraq. That's exactly what Tony Blinken is doing. And one of the first places he went was to Qatar to try and get these negotiations happening. It complicates the military operation exponentially. All of the military analysts that I've spoken to and read about this said just having these hostages in these tunnels, the tunnels themselves make it difficult. Usually with the military field, you're operating on kind of two planes. This adds a whole nother plane and there's potentially a whole nother kind of Gaza city worth of tunnels underneath Gaza city.

So it is really complicated. It seems like negotiation must be the best chance of getting these hostages out alive. Yeah, and it's been suggested that one of Hamas's goals for this attack two weekends ago was to disrupt the possibility normalization plan between Saudi Arabia and Israel. And we heard from the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, MBS, saying let's push pause on that because he's been critical of Israel's response. Jeremy, as with the backdrop of all this, the White House has acknowledged or considering a visit from President Biden to the region. I've got some reporting on that this morning. It's far from a sure thing.

There are real security concerns. But to sort of stand in solidarity with Israel, the president may go as soon as as this week. But if he were to go in the moment when this ground operation may begin, that just further complicates things. Walk us through what you think a full on siege of Israel from Israel into Gaza, what that sort of fighting would look like. How long would it take? It seems like it would be brutal. Well, first of all, Jonathan, with respect to President Biden standing in the region, I think his response over the last nine days has been incredible. And the Israeli people have felt it. I think he spoke with such morally clear, such morally clear terms. And the people of Israel believe the United States truly has their back. And that's exactly what we want our ally to think. I think with respect to this operation in Gaza, it's kind of being characterized, maybe mischaracterized, as a bulldozing of Gaza on the ground. It's not going to be that at all. It's going to be

a combined arms operation that will include infantry, armor, long-range fires, aircraft, unmanned platforms, rotor wing platforms, and because it's a coastal strip, naval platforms as well. And so this is going to be a targeted, intelligence-driven, precision-guided operation by IDF forces to go specifically to Hamas locations. They've got a trove of intelligence from interrogations, from communications intercepts. Where are Hamas leaders located? What are the last known physical addresses? What vehicles are they driving?

Where are their weapons caches? Where are their rocket factories? Where they may be hiding hostages? That's where they're going to go. And it's not going to be just a full scale decimation of civilian infrastructure. It's going to be a very targeted set of operations to go chase down, decimate, decapitate the leadership of Hamas. Former chief of staff at the CIA and Department of Defense, Jeremy Bash, thank you very much for your insight this morning.

Yeah. Former President Trump in a recorded message over the weekend, like he meant to happen. He was on it and then he. Yeah, that was on revealing Republicans eat their young. OK. OK. Well, when he's had some really strange, some really strange things. So one thing that he said at a speech was cruel. We were thinking of showing it and it is so cruel and disgusting that we're not showing it. But again, he babbles through so many of these speeches. And of course, I don't know, maybe somebody can let him know he's not running against Barack Obama. Over the last couple of weeks, he said repeatedly that he was running against Barack Obama,

that he was head of Barack Obama in the polls, that he actually beat Barack Obama in 2020. Remember when he beat Barack Obama in 2016? It's almost as if he's obsessed with Barack Obama. He really if he were a leader of a party instead of just a leader of a cult, this personality cult, he would be more concerned about what's going on in the House of Representatives because, well, again, he doesn't care about Israel. He's shown that with his attacks of the Israelis and their leadership. But right now, Israel desperately needs, they're going to need support from the House of Representatives like the Ukrainians are. More importantly, the United States of America needs to show that we're here, we're ready, we're standing by to face our enemies.

Israel is facing enemies. Hamas considers the United States their enemy. Iran considers the United States their enemy. Of course, Russia considers the United States their enemy. Iran considers the United States their enemy. Of course, Russia considers the United States their enemy and China considers the United States their enemy. If you don't think we're not facing serious, grave challenges from those four countries who consider the United States of America to be their enemies, then you're just naive. And I've got to say, there are a lot of House Republicans that must be naive and think they can continue playing games instead of moving towards a speaker and putting a speaker in place. They're still following this man who is the so-called Republican, but he is the front runner

who says that Republicans are eating their young. And when they're not eating their young, they continue to eat their own as the party still cannot agree on a House speaker. Tomorrow, Republicans plan to try again, holding a House floor vote on Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio for the position. On Friday, he won the GOP nomination for the speakership in a second try. Meanwhile, Republican Congressman Mike Johnson of Louisiana is reportedly laying the groundwork to seek the speaker's gavel if Jordan is unable to get the votes needed on the House floor. So where does this all stand? Joining us now, congressional investigations reporter for The Washington Post, Jackie Alimany, MSNBC contributor Mike Barnicle and co-host of the circus on Showtime, political strategist Mark McKinnon.

Mark McKinnon, have you ever seen anything like this? They've managed to claw their way to the bottom. It's incredible, Joe, at a time of, you know, existential crisis in the world. We have no leadership in the in the Republican Congress. And and we have, you know, the former president of the United States talking about our enemies as being smart. And it's it's, you know, at a time when we need leadership more than we can think of in recent history. There's just none there. I mean, Mike Barnicle, obviously, you you obviously spent your formative years as a reporter with people like Tip O'Neill, a speaker of the House. We saw Nancy Pelosi, the way Nancy ran the House. It is it is it is just beyond stunning to me. And I know I know know for most Republicans that are actually in the House right now, that this continues, that they don't do

what Republicans and Democrats have always done. Go to conference, elect a speaker, the person that gets the majority votes, go to the floor and do the people's business. This group of Republicans refuse to do the people's business. At one of the great times of crisis on the international stage in our lifetime. Joe, you know, you could look at the Congress from the mid 70s, late 70s through the 80s and early 90s. And the Republican Party was a different was a different political party.

Then they actually worked together with Democrats, with Tip O'Neill as speaker, with Jim Wright as speaker. They worked together. And there were many, many Republicans who worked for the country first and the party second. And they knew how to legislate. They knew how to govern. That's gone. The idea that today they'll be discussing in Washington, D.C. Jackie Hallimany is with us to tell us about it. The idea that they're going to be discussing in Washington, D.C. Jackie Halimani is with us to tell us about it. The idea that they're going to be discussing potentially the next speaker of the House would be a man from Ohio who two and a half years ago tried to overturn an existing elected government coming in to coming into the Biden presidency. He voted again. He was against the Constitution of the United States. Jim Jordan. And he's on the precipice of becoming speaker, perhaps. So, Jackie, is this going to happen or what is the latest there? That is the question. I mean, these guys have one job, which is at the end of the day to appropriate.

And right now they've gone 13 days without a House speaker to get anywhere near that job done. Jim Jordan on Friday knew he had 55 votes to shore up. That was 55 people who had voted against him in that secret ballot. People that his team had sensed were still against him. He made calls over the weekend. Some of these pressure tactics, as described by some moderate Republicans to my colleagues, did not sit well. You had Sean Hannity emailing colleagues, a producer for his team, with very lightly veiled threats about, you know, potential primary threats. We know that the Trump team did not get involved directly, but some people are sort of positing this vote to lawmakers who are still holding out

their support for Jordan as a vote against Donald Trump with, again, that threat of a primary challenger if they fail to support Jordan on the House floor. Jordan had previously said he was not going to hold a House vote if he didn't have that 217 number. But now it's looking more like he's going to sort of try to force a play and get people on the record to being against him and therefore, you know, against moving forward on a lot of really important legislation that is just not getting done right now. So, Mark, maybe that idea of trying to get people on record, trying to shame

them into voting, that would work if perhaps you only needed a few votes. But Jordan's not close. And there's certainly this expectation of people that I talked to over the weekend that this isn't going to be his at the end of the day. So give your take on whether Jim Jordan can. But if not him, who who else could step forward and get those votes needed? He can't. And it would be suicide for those Republican members who got elected in Biden districts, many of them here in New York, for example. So the question is, where does it go? There's a guy named Patrick McHenry, who I worked for in the Bush campaign, who is a very decent guy. He's well

liked on both sides of the aisle. Democrats like him. There's even some discussions with the Problem Solvers Caucus about expanding his role as Speaker pro tem as a kind of temporary measure. But I can see kind of a roadmap where at the end of the day, you know, all these bomb throwers like Jordan, that's not it's never going to work. Given given how close the margin is, he can't ever get the votes at the end of the day. So it's going to have to be somebody like McHenry. Jackie, these members are all up for reelection next year. How much conversation are they having about how much this damages their chances of holding on to the House in 2024? Yeah, Katie, I think that right now that is the secondary conversation with so much currently right in front of them that urgently needs to get done. The government might shut down again on November 17th, I believe it is.

They need to get a supplemental emergency aid package done for Israel, potentially Taiwan and Ukraine, although those things are less popular amongst the House GOP conference. And so on the tails of all of this are concerns about what is going to happen in the 2024 election. McCarthy, obviously, the former House speaker who lost his position a few weeks ago, has made that argument that this puts House Republicans in a really weak position going into 2024. He was the lead fundraiser. He made that very clear in his sort of scorched earth end of speakership press conference that House Republicans were going to suffer without his fundraising efforts. And there's already a fear on top of the last midterm performance where House Republicans were expected to have major gains and wins and only clinched the majority by a very few votes, which is obviously now what's hampering a lot of the action that they had promised and that that's going to be even worse next time around. The Washington Post's Jackie Alimany and political strategist Mark McKinnon, thank you both very much for being on this morning. Can I ask Mark one more question?

A quick one, yes. Because he's got a cowboy hat on. He does that. I don't want to let him go yet. Okay. So, Mark, you're out on the road with the circus and all over the country talking to Republicans and Democrats. I'd like you just to report from the great outdoors and everywhere you go, east, west, north, south, about Donald Trump

and his continued hold on the Republican Party and the continued question that many Democrats and independents have is how can a guy that is is just so hateful, a guy who attacks our own allies, Israel, at their lowest moment, a guy who continues to say wonderful things about groups like Hezbollah and Vladimir Putin and President Xi and Deng Xiaoping, steals nuclear secrets, etc. He's got a lot of people who are trying to get in on the controversy. He's got a lot of people who are trying to get in on the controversy.

He's got a lot of people who are trying to get in on the controversy. He's got a lot of people who are trying to get in on the controversy. He's got a lot of people who are trying to get in on the

controversy. He's got a lot of people who are lost every election for Republicans since 2017. Well, Joe, the story of the race so far has been the extent to which Donald Trump has not only maintained support, but even grown in the face of all his legal challenges and everything else that's going on. But in our show last night, what we report on last week was the thing. The new factor is is what's happened in Israel and how the Republican challenges are for the first time really going after Donald Trump now because of what he said about about our allies and our enemies so it's been very stable but but this is a new factor in the race and and we watched over the course of the race first Mike Pence attacked then then DeSantis attacked and

then ultimately Nikki Haley came and she's got you know given her portfolio in the UN you know they have her portfolio in the U.N. You know, they have really decided that this is the moment to to make a break with Trump on this critical issue facing the country. So, listen, it's a steep hill and a big rock. But but this is this is changing the equation right now. Are the war the most powerful nation in the history of the war and world, in the history of the world. The history of the world. We can take care of both of these and still maintain our overall international defense. How do these wars in Israel and Ukraine relate to the safety of the American people? Overwhelmingly, they relate.

For example, in Ukraine, one of my objectives was to prevent Putin, who has committed war crimes himself, from being able to occupy an independent country that borders NATO allies and is on the Russian border. Imagine what happens now if he were able to succeed. Have you ever known a major war in Europe we didn't get sucked into? We don't want that to happen. We want to make sure those democracies are sustained. And Ukraine is critical in making sure that happens. President Biden speaking last night on 60 Minutes about the wars in Israel and Ukraine. International support for Ukraine likely got an indirect boost yesterday with Poland's centrist and progressive parties appearing to have won

enough votes in the weekend elections to form a coalition government and oust the country's current nationalist ruling party. The election drew over 70 percent of voters to the polls, which is the highest turnout in Poland since the end of communist rule back in 1989. Joining us now, U.S. national editor at The Financial Times, Ed Luce, and staff writer at The Atlantic, Ann Applebaum. Good to have you both with us this morning. Ann, let's begin with you. The exit polls suggest a winner for the centrist parties. But of course, the vote's still being counted. The votes now do seem to be lining up with those exit polls. But explain, if you could, for people watching, why this election is one of the most important European elections over the past decade.

So in Poland, we've had for the last eight years a nationalist conservative ruling party that was essentially trying to change the rules of Polish democracy, change the legal system, change the judicial system, change the rules of elections to make sure that they would never lose, essentially. They turned state media, which is very important here, into a kind of propaganda tube, spitting out this very negative, harsh, angry smear campaigns against the Democratic opposition. And so the fact that a group of three Polish parties, center, center left, center right, managed to win a majority against this kind of autocratic populist language is a really important sign for other parties in Europe who are trying to do the same or who are trying to who will be fighting important elections over the next several years. You know, just because autocratic populists win doesn't mean they win forever. They can be defeated. And this is an important sign. And regarding the war in Ukraine, it matters because the ruling party, in a bid to win over

a kind of fringe nationalist votes, began using anti-Ukrainian language, very negative language about Ukraine over the last couple of months, despite having supported them prior to that. A new coalition led by the centrist opposition will realign itself with Ukraine and continue to fight for Ukraine and, I hope, eventually help bring Ukraine into European institutions. You know, Ed, there's been a battle in the middle of Europe for some time now, led by Orban and Hungary. There's been a battle between autocratic populism and Western democracy. Anybody that doesn't believe that, just listen to what Orban himself has said. He hates liberal democracy. He calls himself an illiberal democracy, calls Hungary an illiberal democracy.

Poland, obviously, so much more significant for so many more reasons. Talk about how important this election is and if, in fact, Tusk ends up running the country, what that means for Western democracy. I don't mean to overstate it, but I don't think I can overstate it. No, you're not. You're not overstating it. I mean, Poland is by far the most important of the former Eastern Bloc countries. It's the largest. It's four times the size of Hungary. If the Law and Justice Party had been re-elected, as Anne pointed out, if they had been re-elected, then this would probably have been the last relatively free and fair election in Poland's democratic history. And I think that's why you've had such a surge in turnout.

The Polish voters realized what was at stake, that this was the Orban moment. They've closed down independent judiciary, snuffed out independent media, used state companies to broadcast law and justice propaganda. It was not a level playing field. And the fact that the opposition parties could have won on a very playing field, very steeply tilted against them, shows just how much the Polish electorate realized was at stake. So this, I think, isn't just a big moment for Poland. It's a huge moment for Poland. It's a huge moment for Europe as well.

Europe's been withholding billions and billions, 35 billion euros of aid to Poland because it's been breaking all the rules of the club by packing the courts, by closing down independent media. That money will now be, once a new government's in place under Donald Tusk, which it looks like will happen, That money will now be released. Poland will cease to question the enormous number of Ukrainian refugees it's taken in. It's played an extraordinary role. And they will again feel welcomed because their status have been coming into question

during this campaign. And we will get a frontline state that believes in the democracy that it claims it's fighting for. So, Anne, watching from this side of the Atlantic, Americans see the far right doing well in Germany, doing well in France, doing well in Italy over the course of the last couple of years. Which should be the canary in the coal mine? If we want to look at what's happening in Europe more broadly? Should it be what's just happened in Poland or should

it be what's happened in Slovakia a couple of weeks ago where a pro-Russia far right party did very well? I mean, this is not a contest that's going to end following one election in Poland or one election in Slovakia or even one election in Germany and France. There is now a permanent competition in Europe between parties of the center, the center-right and the center-left, who want to keep European institutions together, who want to maintain democracy inside their own countries, who have some belief in a transatlantic community and parties that don't. And this is now the central competition in Europe, if you will.

This is the central dividing line in European politics. And pretty much every election from now on will feature that argument and that set of arguments. The Polish win is very important because in Poland, the far right had essentially already captured the state. As Ed just said, you know, they were using state money, you know, taxpayers money to run there and pay for their enormously expensive election campaign. They fiddled the laws to try and gerrymander the system. And nevertheless, the opposition proved it's still possible to win. And that will inspire a lot of others, I believe.

So, Ed Luce, we've talked obviously about the geopolitical impact of this around the world. But what about locally in Poland for the Polish people? How does this impact women's rights, LGBTQ and other communities that have felt at the very least excluded? It's a great question. I mean, I think Anne's a better place to answer, but Poland, the Law and Justice Party, have passed the most strict anti-abortion law, I think, in all of Europe. The anti-LGBTQ ordinances that have come into place across Poland in the last few years, again, have been the most draconian and reactionary in Europe. And one assumes that all of these are going to be rolled back by the coming coalition government. But, you know, a lot of them have been put in place at the local level in smaller towns, in the areas of strength and support for the Law and Justice

Party. So some might stay in place. This is, as Anne points out, you know, this is an ongoing battle. And we shouldn't forget that even though the coalition parties have won this election by the looks of it, the Law and Justice Party is still the largest single party. It's still got 36 percent of the vote and it represents a very potent force in Poland. Yeah. Yeah. I would say also, if you look at the exit polls, so interestingly enough, the the party that was the most far right that we profiled on Friday, that was supposed to do much better, did not do well at all, underperformed. I would say one other thing,

too, really quickly before we go. There are the social issues. There are also the economic issues. The fact is, Polish leaders have been fighting Europe over the past decade. If, in fact, Tusk is the leader, steps in and is the leader of Poland, the integration into Europe. Oh, my gosh. The integration into the EU, the money, the money that they are going to be able to access, the support they're going to be able to access is going to be a remarkable, remarkable transformation for that country after a decade of fighting Europe. The Financial Times, Ed Luce and The Atlantic's Ann Applebaum.

Thank you both. And I know what my brother is going to be doing at the embassy today. We're not going to talk about it. We're going to begin the next hour with the latest out of the Israeli Hamas war. The announcement earlier today from an IDF spokesman who says there are currently 199 people who are being held hostage by Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The news comes as Israel's military continues to gather near the Israel-Gaza border ahead of the anticipated ground invasion. And the United States is sending a second aircraft carrier to the Mediterranean in hopes of preventing further escalation in the region. Meanwhile, documents

found on the bodies of Hamas terrorists show the group intentionally targeted elementary schools and a youth center in its attack on Israel. In detailed maps and plans, which were shared exclusively with NBC News, the terrorists outlined their agenda to, quote, kill as many people as possible, seize hostages and then quickly move them into Gaza. The documents, some of which were labeled top secret, list the names of specific schools with different combat units assigned to each one. According to two sources, these plans are part of a trove of documents now being analyzed by Israeli officials. Joining us now from Tel Aviv, Israel, senior national correspondent for NBC News, Jay Gray. Jay, what's the latest there? Yeah, Mika, let's give you an outline of

what it's like on the ground right now. Within the last 30 or 45 minutes, we have heard the Iron Dome again doing its job, diverting potential attacks here. We're in an open-air market in downtown Tel Aviv, and you can see it is empty. A lot of the shops aren't open. Those that are, some, like this shirt printer, turning his attention to supporting the defense forces. But take a look down the way. This is usually teeming with families, especially in the early afternoon here in Tel Aviv. You can barely walk around now. It is wide open.

Some of the vendors have not opened. Others are doing a very slight business here. What I can tell you is we continue to see military choppers in the skies over Tel Aviv and making their runs. Early this morning, we heard fighter jets a little lower than normal, making their way towards Gaza and doing their work there. A lot of the focus for a lot of those here where clearly with this place being so empty, there is an uneasy tension is what's going on at the Egyptian border, at the Rafah border crossing. Right now, just large crowds are not going either way at this point. I know you've been talking about that situation and Secretary Blinken trying to work the diplomatic angles of all of that. But right now there's been no movement either way on that. They are also talking a lot in this city about the potential for the ground movement and when that may happen and what it will be like.

And a lot of people very concerned that Israeli soldiers will be put in harm's way as they move in to do a job that most here believe they have to do and it's something that they have decided that they're going to do, but they're still uncertain about when and very anxious for that process to begin making. All right. NBC's Jay Gray, thank you very much for the latest reporting out of Israel.