Morning Joe - Morning Joe 10/18/22

Episode Date: October 18, 2022

Republicans have lead in generic ballot three weeks before midterms

The political media's obsession with January 6th suggests they're not actually paying attention to the concerns of everyday voters. You want to sweep it under the rug, like I don't want to talk about this any more than anybody else. But my God, you got to look into it, J.D. When the barbarians were at the gate, you were happy to let them in. There were people who behaved very badly on that day. I was not one of them. Ms. Abrams is going to lie about my record because she doesn't want to talk about her own. I have to have conversations with the entirety of Georgia. I don't have the luxury of being a part of a good old boys club.

Debate night in Ohio, Utah and Georgia with the midterms exactly three weeks away. Things are getting a little heated. Steve Kornacki is standing by at the big board. Speaking of heated, did you see that guy beforehand? Oh, now he's going to be. He's going into the whole rage thing. Out of hand. He's like Chris Sell trying to tear TVs. Kornacki's going to break down.

Dog dugouts. This guy's crazy today. The state of the race, which is what we really want from him. Also, Republicans. It's time to deliver that pitch. Republicans claim to care so much about spending. Yeah. Will they speak out about the new report that the Trump organization overcharged the Secret

Service for stays at the former president's properties? Also this morning, another wave of attacks as Moscow appears to be targeting critical infrastructure. The death toll rises in Kiev after Russia uses Iranian drones to attack residential areas in Ukraine's capital. We'll take a closer look at the Iran factor, how the war has brought Moscow and Tehran closer together. You know, I say repeatedly, Iran has been the epicenter of international terrorism since 1979. We should we should have been more aggressive toward them for a very long time.

Now you have this toxic mix going on. You have terrorism. I mean, the Russians, this has nothing to do with the battlefield. This is just about terrorism. And and America and its allies are going to have to do more. And we're going to get into that. And when I say do more, we're going to have to send them whatever they need to stop these attacks. And at some point, if the terrorism continues, we're going to have to draw a line across, just as we did with Syria. We're going to have to draw a line across Ukraine.

And we're going to have to tell the Russians, hey, fight on your battlefront. We're going to stay away from that, but we're not going to continue to allow indiscriminate attacks against the Ukrainian people. Willie, that's my opinion. Of course, nobody else's. We'll get more into it. We'll talk more about it.

Willie, I want to talk about something that obviously a lot of people are thinking this morning has nothing to do with Ukraine, has nothing to do with Syria. They have one burning question in their mind. It's not even the midterms. The night off last night, the rain out. Does does does it help the Yankees more or does it help? Does it help Cleveland more? Don't go like that. You've seen how much I invested in the Red Sox. And when they decided at trade deadline, hey, we'd rather be in last place than first place. Okay. Well, that was their decision. But Willie, he's still in this because he's got a front office that actually doesn't like to end up in last place. So I'll ask again,

Willie, is this going to help the Yankees more or is this going to help Cleveland more, the extra day off? I like it as a Yankee fan, and here's why. Back page of the New York Post, Joe. Nasty weather means nasty Nestor Cortez gets the start. So he gets one more day of rest. So he'll be pitching on three days rest. So instead of Jamison Tyon, who's been good,

we get Nestor Cortez, who's been great, was an all-star this year. So it was a little annoying last night, I'm sure, for all those fans who went to Yankee Stadium, waited two and a half hours before they called the game. It wouldn't have started till 10, 30, or 11 anyway. So it was the right call. And now you get a four o'clock this afternoon game to decide who wins this series. And then, by the way, it gets about 24 hours before the next game, game one of the ALCS. They've got to fly to Houston and play a great Astros team. So it gets tougher from here, but I like it.

I like where we are. But it's one of those days, Joe, you know these games where anything goes. If Cortez doesn't have it, if maybe Shane Bieber doesn't have it for the Indians, if for the Guardians, if he starts today, then they come out early and the bullpen is wide open. Should be a fun game. Well, and the best part is that it's at 4 o'clock. It's an afternoon game now.

And so you get to see it without being exhausted in the morning. Meek and I, you know, usually we have a blue plate special. We watch Hee Haw at about 5.30. Then we watch Wheel of fortune at six we have our milk and crackers and then we go to bed this is not far from the truth we're gonna actually get to see this okay all right along with joe willie and me we have u.s special correspondent for bbc news katie k pull of the surprise winning columnist at the washington post eugene robinson and the host of way too early white house fair chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire.

You know, there's just way too much to talk about. I promise we're going to get to the rage in one second. But, Katty K., I saw the Liz Truss interview yesterday. Wait, she's sorry. Oh, it's awful. It's one of the worst interviews I've ever seen of a leader. You're sorry? She was stammering around when she was asked, are you going to be leading the conservatives into the next election? She's

like, oh, it's like she had swallowed a marble and was just sitting there. I mean, I don't know how the Tories keep her in there. I mean, my God, how many points are they behind labor now? You know, when your premiership is being compared to the shelf life of lettuce, you know that you're not in a good place. And that is the front page of every single after the economist said that she has about the shelf life of a lettuce. Every single tabloid paper in the UK is now got pictures of a lettuce every single day. They watch it degenerate and watch how long she's going to stay in. So that is not a good look for a premiership. She said, yes, I'm going to leave them in definitely.

But then she seemed to row back on it. She couldn't even answer the questions without these long pauses. I mean, as a projection of confidence, that was not what the Tory party or certainly her premiership was leading to. And the Tory party is now increased. I mean, it's so interesting watching it from this side of the Atlantic where it is so hard for Republicans to come out and speak out against Donald Trump. They are starting to come out publicly and say she's toast. She has to go, that there is no chance that she can stay. And as she watches those around her, her deputies, nominally her deputies, performing better than she is in Parliament, she has to be wondering how long it's going to be. Well, she's not toast.

I mean, you obviously have not been reading your London tabloids. She is lettuce. The Daily Star says lettuce lives on leaf support. They have a picture of lettuce. A lettuce with little eyes. Little eyes with a wig. Should we show the apology? Like, this is terrible.

On life support. But here show the apology? Like, this is terrible. On live support. But here's her apology from yesterday. What I'm focused on is delivering for the British public. Now, I recognize we have made mistakes. I'm sorry for those mistakes. But I fixed the mistakes. I've appointed a new chancellor. We have restored economic stability and fiscal discipline.

And what I now want to do is go on and deliver for the public. They asked her also if she'd be leading the Conservatives. She gasped for a little bit, looked like she ate a marble and made me think, my money, Willie, is on the lettuce. Well, that seems to be the consensus, Katty, in the UK, that the money is on the lettuce. As long as we're talking about it, Katty, can you summarize quickly for our viewers who may not understand completely why these few weeks is all it's really been have been so disastrous for Liz Truss? I mean, in a way, this is a defining moment in the history of trickle-down economics. She came in determined to implement classic conservative ideology, economic ideology from the 1980s. At a time of growing inequality in the economy, she gave a large tax cut to Britain's wealthiest.

And with the argument that this would produce growth, she was then met with a market response that was absolutely ferocious, sending the pound plummeting almost to parity with the dollar. London suddenly looked a very cheap place to go and do your shopping because you could get so many pounds for your dollars. But the markets responded in a way that I think Liz Trust and her chancellor had not expected. And I don't know why they hadn't expected that. They ought to have anticipated it. And prompting even, and I have really almost never seen this, an intervention from the president of the United States saying the policies that have been implemented in Great Britain do not work. Trickle down economics does not produce growth. It increases inequality. And the markets have the same response as President Biden,

which means her chancellor is out and now quite possibly she's out, too. Let's see how long she lasts, whether it's whether it's truss or the lettuce. As I said, my money's on lettuce. Let's bring it right now. NBC News national correspondent Steve Kornacki. He's in the big board. We're going to cover Lexington elections, that Lexington elections next. But why don't we cover our own right here? So, Steve, so three weeks, three weeks. It seems this election has been going three ways. Pre-Dobbs, you had all Republican. Post-Dobbs, it seemed like Democrats won every news cycle.

Wasn't just on Dobbs, but on a lot of different things. And now you've just sort of sensed over the past week or two things breaking back in the Republicans' camp. And I say you sort of sense that I'm hearing that from Republican campaigns and Democratic campaigns that they really do see a break toward Republicans. The question is, where are we now? And with three weeks to go, of course, do we have yet another chapter in this ever winding sort of campaign? Yeah, what you're describing, we are starting to see in the numbers. I think here's the biggest thing we've been tracking through the year, and that is the generic ballot. This is the average from real clear. When you ask folks, do you want the Democrats or the

Republicans to be controlling Congress? As you mentioned, early this year, Republicans had a clear advantage on this question. Over the summer, post Dobbs. Democrats drew even Democrats even took the lead through mid-September on this metric. And now this morning, Republicans have a lead on average of over two points. That's as big as I've seen the Republican lead on the generic ballot in months. And if you put this in some context here, let's take a look at recent midterm waves. These are all wave elections in the midterms. This is where the generic ballot was at this point. You can see it's certainly not on par with what Democrats had in their two big wave years. It's not on par with what Republicans had in 2010 when they took 63 seats and won the

House. But now it's the first time we've seen this in a long time. The Republican lead in the generic ballot is actually larger than it was at this point in 2014. The significance of that is if you remember the 2014 midterm, Barack Obama's second midterm, it was kind of a slow and late building wave to the point that even on election night, the magnitude of it caught some folks by surprise. But that's when Republicans took back the U.S. Senate in 2014. They reached their highest level in terms of House seats since 1928. 2014 was a late building wave. You saw that number spike in the last couple of weeks. You've now seen this one go from the Republicans just getting ahead of the Democrats a few weeks

ago to being up by over two points in today's average. So what you're describing in terms of feeling like things might be moving back towards the Republicans is, it seems right now, bearing out in these numbers, as you say, three weeks to go, see if things change. Take a look at the Senate battleground here. Again, the top five targets for each party. What does the polling look like in those states? Again, the bottom line continues to be true. Republicans need a net gain of one seat if they're going to get control of the Senate. Right now, on average, they lead in one Democratic held seat. That's Nevada. Adam Laxall continues to lead. Catherine Cortez Masto. Were that to hold, that would be a net gain there for Republicans. But Democrats right now, again, continue to be able to counter that. There is one Republican held seat, Pennsylvania. This is Pat Toomey retiring

where John Fetterman, the Democrat, continues to lead in the polling average here over Mehmet Oz. I should note, though, the big trend in this race, you see Fetterman 3.4. August 1st, if you went back and looked at the poll average in Pennsylvania, it was Fetterman 8.7. So that has come down considerably, more than five points since then. I think there's a lot of uneasiness among Democrats when they look at Pennsylvania, a lot of variables there. A couple other things to point out on this board here. Wisconsin, Ron Johnson. Ron Johnson's running for his third term from Wisconsin. I don't remember seeing many or maybe even any polls in 2016 and 2010 that had Ron,

certainly in 2016, that had Ron Johnson ahead. This is a much, at least in terms of the polling, a much better position for him now than it was six years ago when he won one of the biggest upsets on election night to get reelected. And then in Georgia, where you had that debate Friday night, Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker. Warnock continuing to lead in the polling. Haven't really had much in the way of post-debate polling out there,

so we're keeping a close eye on that. And the other wild card in Georgia is it's the runoff state. You got to get 50% plus one or it goes to a runoff December 6th. And neither Warnock nor Walker right now is at 50% in the polling average there. Whenever you talk about the generic ballot, when you talk about these races, many people rightly looked at Kansas. They said, well, there's a race with a pro-life choice. The pro-life side of that ballot initiative this summer was supposed to win by one or two points. It was very close. They ended up winning by 19. There's some sort of invisible vote. The thing I've noticed, Steve, that the further we get away for Dobbs because not exactly sure why that vote

would be hidden, why that issue wouldn't appear high on people's priorities if it's just not as important as a lot of Democratic candidates think it's going to be in voters' minds. Yeah, I mean, I think, again, this is just consistent with what you're describing in terms of the atmosphere shifting from the summer when the focus this summer was so much on the Dobbs decision. All of the uncertainty that it raised. It was also, by the way, the focus this summer was heavily on Donald Trump. The raid of Mar-a-Lago, Trump aligned candidates winning one high profile Republican primary after another. Those two things, I think, were center stage. And I think

now it's that the economy and inflation, especially with some of that news last week around inflation, maybe really have returned to the fore. There was that New York Times Siena poll yesterday. I don't have it in the board, but if you add it up, the economy and inflation in that poll, 44 percent cited that as their top choice, as their top issue in terms of casting a vote. Five percent chose abortion. Nothing outside of the economy. Inflation was double digit. So I've seen a lot of polling showing economy and inflation top issue. But the magnitude of it in that New York Times-Siena poll yesterday, which had Republicans leading over all the generic ballot, the magnitude of it in that poll yesterday was bigger than I've seen. It does seem the further we've gotten out from that decision this summer

and the immediate kind of uncertainty that it raised now, three or four months later, it's back to the economy, back to inflation. And that inflation news last week, I think, certainly didn't help the Democrats. Though abortion is still central to the Democratic case. We heard that in the debates last night. You're hearing it out on the campaign trail. The number, Steve, speaking of that New York Times Siena poll that really stopped a lot of people in their tracks was the swing in just one month among independent women talking about suburban women as well who decide these elections in many cases going from plus 14 from Democrats in September to plus 18 for Republicans one month later, a 32 point flip.

How do you account for that when you look race by race? Yeah, I mean, we talk so much about the importance of so many of these races here, whether it's Georgia, the suburbs of Atlanta, whether it's Wisconsin, the suburbs outside Milwaukee, all the suburbs outside of Philadelphia. The suburbs really are going to swing and decide these races here. The economic concern certainly we've seen when you ask about inflation, you ask about the economy. Republicans enjoy a clear advantage there. The other issue Republicans have been pushing that may have some resonance in some of these suburban areas has been the issue of crime.

Suburban areas outside cities where you've seen spikes in violent crime, where you've seen quality of life issues really take the fore. Republicans have been pushing crime in particular. I note Ron Johnson in Wisconsin. He has been doing that. We show Johnson here leading the poll in Wisconsin. It's interesting. There was a Marquette Law poll in Wisconsin last week that put Johnson ahead by five or six points. And when you look inside that poll, they asked folks, basically, do you take how seriously do you consider they give them a list of issues? And they basically said, do you consider these to be serious issues? If inflation and economy was number one, over 90 percent were saying, yeah, basically it's a very important issue. Close to

that at 87 percent, though, was crime. And that was about 10 points higher than abortion. So I thought that jumped out at me because the Democrats have been running hard on abortion. Republicans like Johnson have been running hard on crime. And I think there might that poll indicated to me, certainly in Wisconsin, there might be a little bit more resonance with the kind of voter you're describing when it comes to crime right now. And it does abortion. And that is redounding to the benefit of johnson in that state well and and i hear it from democrats uh sitting around the table last week uh in dc and democrats were all talking about crime and and they weren't

talking about it how it affected elections they were talking about their own situations how it touched their lives or touched the lives of loved ones. And, Gene, you look at that Fetterman race, and I must say, one area, one race, I think crime may have a really substantial impact is going to be in that Pennsylvania race because you have people who also told me that their relatives wouldn't go down and see the Phillies play or the Eagles play because they were in the suburbs of Philly and they just didn't want to go into Philadelphia where the murder rate has just absolutely skyrocketed. While you have a D.A.

who's telling everybody, oh, we don't have a crime problem. Everything's going great here. Voters don't believe that. Yeah. You know, you have to you have to first acknowledge problems or voters won't believe you. And and that's not a wise tactic in any election. That's a weird race. The Fetterman Oz race, because, you know, Oz has gained ground and then and then Oz does something stupid, you know, and it's something, again, stupid like crudité or, you know, there was an incident the other day when he made a big show of comforting a voter, you know, who was distraught because of these awful Democrats, and it turned out to be a paid staffer who he was ostentatiously comforting.

And that got a lot of play in the Pennsylvania press. But it's going to be a lot closer than it looked like it would be, you know, a couple months ago. And this is going to be a real nail-biter for Democrats. They've got to—they're going to have to have an unprecedented midterm turnout in order to salvage this election. There was an interesting number out of Georgia. There was a record number, by a lot, of voters yesterday, the first day of early voting. Now, you can't really

generalize from that. It could be that most of the people who might have voted later in the cycle, but they were going to vote anyhow. But that's the kind of number that I think Democrats are going to look at and say, well, gee, you know, are we able to get out more Democrats than usually vote in midterm elections and and pull out these races where where we have these slim leads? Because that's, you know, that's a slim lead. Three points in Georgia. Warnock over Walker is a slim lead in what ought to be a Republican year. We should note that even as abortion rights seems to be slipping down the list of voter priorities, at least in a couple of polls, we're going to hear from President Biden on that very subject this afternoon.

So, Steve Kornacki, there are a lot of Democrats in pure panic mode after that one poll. We should emphasize just the one poll that had the gender gap that Willie mentioned. And they do feel that the race may be in these last few weeks breaking away from them slightly. But what you have behind you, if it holds right there, Democrats still control the Senate. It's 50-50. They trade a seat or two. So beyond, we know, Nevada and Pennsylvania, you have those two flipping. We know Georgia's close. Is there one other race that we should be paying more attention to that you think at this point in the Senate has been overlooked that could surprise people come election day? Yeah, I mean, there's a couple here. I think in Georgia, I would just,

again, there's the possibility there, as we say, of the runoff. And if Senate control is on the line in Georgia in the runoff, as it was a couple of years ago. I know you talked about this before. A couple of years ago, you had Donald Trump basically telling Republicans not to vote in that runoff. If you did it all over again, Senate control were on the line and maybe Trump behaved differently this time. I wonder if it just becomes a pure D versus R dynamic and Walker is able to win over the voters who've been reluctant. Because what's interesting in Georgia is if you look at the governor's race there, if you look at the governor's race there, if you look at the Brian Kemp, Stacey Abrams race, Brian Kemp is over 50 percent and relatively speaking, comfortably ahead of Stacey Abrams.

There's a group of again, this is the suburbs. There's suburban voters outside Atlanta in Georgia who don't like Biden, don't like the Democrats, but also don't like Donald Trump. And they watched Brian Kemp go to political war with Donald Trump earlier this year and survive and win. And I think it means in those voters eyes, Kemp is OK. That's why Kemp's over 50 percent in Georgia. But those same voters, I think, seem to have some reservations about Herschel Walker, who's closely aligned with Donald Trump. Very different dynamic there. So the challenge for Walker in that race is there is a group of voters right now who seem to be poised to give Brian Kemp, the Republican, more than 50 percent in the governor's race. Can he win them over in the final weeks of this campaign? I think that's a key dynamic there.

And interestingly, in Arizona, where you've got the Democrat, again, the incumbent here, Mark Kelly, up four and a half points on average. The governor's race in Georgia, that's where Carrie Lake is running. Now, Kerry Lake is as Trump aligned as humanly possible among these candidates. Very different than with that we're talking about with Kemp in Georgia. But Kerry Lake has been running ahead of Blake Masters, the Democratic candidate in Arizona. They've been trying to you can see these Lake and Blake signs in Arizona. They've been trying to join forces a bit. It does raise the question to me, could Carrie Lake end up pulling Blake Masters up on election day in Arizona? It's

a totally different dynamic there, but it's not escaped my attention or anyone's attention that Carrie Lake, I think, has been running stronger in Arizona than maybe some expected. Well, you know, that could go both ways. It could bring Masters up more likely, though, when I'm not just talking about these two candidates. More likely, if you have a candidate who's like a lead weight, it brings the other person down. So I'm surprised that that Kerry Lake would want to be attached to Blake Masters, because right now it is much closer than a lot of people expected. Let's look at that board for a second, Steve, and just let everybody know

the three weeks out, whatever side you're on, there shouldn't be weeping or gnashing of teeth. I think it was maybe Katty can help me here, but I think it was Harold McMillan that said that in politics, a week is a lifetime. We've got three weeks left to go. It can break either way. I do think, though, you look at that board and this really does feel I said it yesterday. This really does feel like 2014. And you look at the Kay Hagan race against Tom Tillis. I think Kay Hagan was up by one or two points the entire time. And everybody just assumed, OK, she's going to she's the incumbent. She's up one or two points. She's going to pull this out. And the end, Tom Tillis came. So just the slightest of margins, if there is a hidden vote for Republicans out there, people that that just as we've seen in the past, don't want to talk to pollsters, they could end up with a 52 seat majority. If women are more engaged, even if

it's not showing up in some of these polls and before because of Dobbs, you could have Democrats having 51 or 52 seats. But you look behind you there, you know, Walker could win Georgia. And Kelly, I know Masters is a weak candidate. But, you know, Steve, I keep I keep thinking about 2020 and Kelly was supposed to win that race by nine, 10, 11, 12. And he almost lost it. It was one of those states that the polling was wildly off and he almost lost that race. So anything seems possible, but certainly anything's possible in Nevada, Georgia, Arizona at the very least. And, you know, Pennsylvania and Ohio. This could go in any direction. Right. Yeah, no, you're right. It is important we live in this day and age to remember.

I don't think I need to remind anybody that we've had polling misses some pretty big ones in the last few elections. 2020. The other the big one I remember from 2020 is Susan Collins in Maine, who looked just buried politically. And she didn't just win re-election in 2020 in Maine. She won easily in 2020. She crushed it. So you've got that. And you mentioned the 2014 example.

And the lesson I took away, it was reinforced to me at least by 2014. You'll remember this too, is, yeah, we had a bunch of races that were extremely close all the way through right up until Election Day. And you're looking at it and saying Democrats could hold the Senate. They could win these three seats. Republicans could win these three. What ended up happening is we say a late breaking wave. It seemed that just there was this decisive shift everywhere of about three to five points on Election Day from the polls to the Republicans and Republicans.

Just every seat that looked 50 50 in 2014 broke to the Republicans. A few that looked like, you know, Democrats had a slight advantage that the swing at the end was enough to lift Republicans. I remember looking up at just as the polls closed an election night in 2014 and the first sign you saw something was going wrong for Democrats, really wrong. 7 p.m. poll closing time in 2014. And the first sign you saw something was going wrong for Democrats, really wrong. 7 p.m. poll closing time in Virginia. And there was Mark Warner. Nobody had even been talking about Mark Warner's race. And Mark Warner was in a dogfight to keep that seat. He barely won. And you're saying if Mark Warner is barely winning reelection in Virginia in 2014, this is going to be a long night for Democrats. And it was. Scott Brown nearly knocked off Gene Shaheen in New Hampshire after trailing six, seven, eight, nine points in the polls there. So that was the

thing in 2014. There was late movement to Republicans and you just ended up being reflected in every race. And I remember the Mark Warner race as well. I must say, going into the final three weeks after everything that's come out about Herschel Walker as well. Mika, if that race stays close in the polling, if that stays within the margin of error inside the polling, it shows you that 22 is going to be radically different than 20, especially in states like Georgia and Arizona and Ohio. Swing states are going to be far different. Well, we'll be watching. And obviously, we have more debates to come. And we're looking also at Florida, Val Demings and Marco Rubio and how that race is pairing out. And again, it could break either way. It could break either way.

So I don't like people. Three weeks. Definitely. Take a deep breath, everybody. Be mindful. No, I'm not breathing at all. NBC Steve Gornacki, thank you very much. We appreciate it. And we'll see you once again soon. And still ahead on Morning Joe, there have been more Russian strikes in Kiev this morning, this time appearing to target the country's electrical infrastructure. We'll have the very latest from the war-torn country. Plus, former Trump adviser Steve Bannon will be sentenced on Friday. And the Justice Department is out with a new recommendation for how much time he should spend behind bars. We'll tell you what that is.

And on the heels of former President Trump's remarks about American Jews, we'll be joined by former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Also this morning, a look at the morning papers, including a new effort by one state to teach students the difference between fact and fake news. You're watching Morning Joe. Important. Very important. Here's a hint. Stay off of websites that are run by Chinese religious cults. We'll be right back. Just a tip. 6.34 here on the East Coast. The Justice Department is recommending former Trump advisor Steve Bannon be sentenced to six months in jail and fined $200,000 after he defied a subpoena to testify before the House Select Committee investigating the January 6th attack on the Capitol. Federal attorneys wrote in a sentencing memo to the court that Bannon should receive a hefty sentence because he, quote, pursued a bad faith strategy of defiance and contempt

from the moment he received the subpoena last year that sought records and testimony about his knowledge of Donald Trump's efforts to overturn the 2020 election. Lawyers for Bannon recommend he should not spend any time in jail and instead receive probation. Bannon is set to be. He's thumbed his nose, Jonathan Lemire, at the subpoena from the very beginning in public and private on his podcast. What do you think is going to happen here on Friday? Yeah, that was always part of the strategy. And Bannon told people, he said it publicly, that he wouldn't mind being a MAGA martyr for the cause. But when

faced with prison time, he's like, let's do that from home if we can. So there's a limit to perhaps his devotion to the cause. I mean, the DOJ has said it's slightly, they want the harshest punishment. I think there's a sense they likely will get it. Some legal experts yesterday were saying there's a real chance Bannon will get, if not six months, but at least a few months in prison. They won't just sentence him to probation or home confinement, which is another option his lawyers had proceeded. And of course, if Bannon is able to do that from home, it's possible, he'll continue with his podcast and get you espoused from the big lie. And he remains one of Donald Trump's sort of biggest supporters

and loudest voices on election denying and this sort of MAGA movement as we barrel into these midterms. And we've heard him on tape even in the last few weeks saying out loud, here's the plan. Win or lose, we say we won. He's been behind this whole thing. So we'll see what happens on Friday. He may get his MAGA martyrdom after all. Meanwhile, according to an investigation released yesterday by the House Committee on Oversight and Reform during Donald Trump's presidency, Trump hotels charge the Secret Service as much as eleven hundred eighty five dollars a night. That's more than five times the recommended

government rate. The Washington Post report shows Trump organization properties overall charge the Secret Service more than one point four million dollars for agents accommodations when traveling to protect former President Trump. In a statement on behalf of the Trump Organization, Eric Trump responded by saying, in part, the Trump family is likely the first family in American history to have not profited off of the United States government. Hold for laughter. Right, more like Saudi.

In previous interviews, he said the Trump Organization gave the federal government discounts for staying at their hotels and only charged them about 50 bucks a night. So, Joe, make eleven hundred bucks a night to the United States taxpayer at Trump hotels. What a surprise. Not grifters. We're scammed. But, you know, it wasn't just that. It was the fact that he sent a very clear message to world leaders across across the globe. When you come to Washington, D.C., you better stay at my hotel. I know who stays at my hotel and who doesn't stay at my hotel.

And how fascinating, how fascinating. He leaves the White House and he sells the hotel. I mean, it's again, it's just a clear scam. But of course, why are we even saying this? The sun rises in the east and sets in the west. Not a surprise at all. It's time now for a look at the morning papers. The Beacon News reports that Illinois has become the first state in the country to require media literacy education be taught in high schools. The curriculum aims to teach students how to decipher fact from fake news. Lessons include how to properly access information, evaluate sources, and reflect on media consumption. It's a good idea. The Portland Press-Herald covers the surge in spending by outside groups in Maine elections.

New figures reveal outside groups have spent more than $3 million in political advertising in the past week. The groups have now spent nearly $14 million in the state's gubernatorial election and legislative elections since Labor Day. The Press and Sun Bulletin leads with the latest in New York's gubernatorial race. According to a new Marist poll, Representative Lee Zeldin now trails Governor Kathy Hochul by just 10 percentage points. That is one of the closest margins in a New York governor's race in years. And again, we talk about crime. I wonder how much crime has to do with it. We've had the mayor of New York City on saying that the governor has fought him on some crime issues from the beginning, including cash free bail. Interesting. I wonder if it's also a sort of

Cuomo effect and some of the COVID things that are still going on and reports that are still coming out about how the administration handled covid. And the Tennessean reports that the Tennessee Titans have unveiled a potential two point one billion dollar deal to build a new football stadium. The new enclosed stadium would be funded through a mix of private contributions and state and local bonds. If approved, the deal would be the largest of its kind in Nashville's history. And coming up, a page out of President Abraham Lincoln's playbook for preserving American democracy in the modern age. John Meacham joins us next. Plus, the untold story behind Congress's botched impeachment of Donald Trump. We'll speak with the reporter behind the new book with their new reporting, including why Speaker Pelosi didn't want the votes to be her legacy. Morning Joe, we'll be right back.

Your union, sir, is bonded in cannon fire and death. It may be all right. But say all we've done is show the world that democracy isn't chaos. That there is a great invisible strength in a people's union. See, we've shown that a people can endure awful sacrifice and yet cohere. Mightn't that save at least the idea of democracy to aspire to?

Eventually to become worthy of? At all rates, whatever may be proven by blood and sacrifice must have been proved by now. Shall we stop this bleeding? That was Daniel Day-Lewis portraying President Abraham Lincoln in the 2012 Steven Spielberg film Lincoln. The challenges Lincoln endured during his presidency to preserve democracy provide crucial lessons to the country today, something our next guest writes about in his new book. Joining us now, presidential historian John Meacham. His new book entitled And There Was Light, Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle is officially out today. Congratulations. Also with us for the discussion is MSNBC contributor Mike

Barnicle and author and NBC News presidential historian Michael Beschloss. By the way, Barnicle almost selected as secretary of war for Lincoln. I know. At the last minute, there was an insider deal. Almost happened. They didn't want a guy from massachusetts the washington post eugene robinson is still with us and he has the first question gene john congratulations on the book um and i will i will read it eagerly i i'm curious you know it wasn't really until he got into the war that the sort of stated and open goal of Lincoln was to get rid of slavery. And he tried everything to kind of keep the Union together, yet earlier, before he was president, he had given the famous, you know, a nation divided against itself cannot stand speech as if he knew all along that that that it was going to it was going to come to that.

Was he temporizing? Was he playing for time, essentially, until the moment was right? Or was this a genuine shift in Lincoln's thinking? Well, as as a conscientious politician, which is not an oxymoron, and I think that's one of the key points here, is that if you're going to send someone to the pinnacle of power, you need to make sure there is a moral compass. There is a commitment to something larger than your own hold on power. And in many ways, I think that's a hugely important lesson about Lincoln for us today. He was anti-slavery persistently. In the politics of the time, he believed that slavery could not be extended to

the territories. That was the defining political issue of the 1850s. It was what the Douglas Lincoln campaigns were about for the Senate. And remember, Lincoln kept losing. So being an anti-slavery politician in the 1850s was not a guaranteed winner, but he believed it. And as you, Gene, as you mentioned, he comes to Cooper Union. He talks about how there is a strong distinction between us and them, between the North and the South, between the free states and the slave states. They believe slavery is right and we believe it is wrong. And on that issue, democracy itself would hang because the aristocracy of race in my native region in the South wanted to perpetuate its own power at any cost, even unto 750,000 people dying in a civil war. One of the great facts of American history is that the slave-owning interest in the United States of America preferred civil war, an immensely bloody civil war, to living up to the Declaration of Independence. And Lincoln stood in that breach and said, my ancient faith teaches me that all men are created equal and that without that, democracy and the point of the union fail. And risked his own reelection, as you write about

in the book in 1864. You connect very well in this book, the events of Lincoln's time to the events today, perhaps providing a little bit of a roadmap. The title, it's right there. And there was light. It was so dark, but somehow he saw the light and then showed a way to get there. What should we take from that as we look at today when so many people say we're so divided, there's no way to stitch it back together. Social media is an accelerant on the fire and all those things that Lincoln didn't have to deal with. What do you take away from Lincoln's experience for today? I think that what President Lincoln and the era teach us is that if you believe in the promise of the country, if you believe that we are all created equal, and there's a self-interested reason to believe that. It's not just morally good, although it is. But if I respect your dignity and your equality,

maybe not you, but if I respect you, you are more likely to respect me. It's a covenant. It's of, for, and by the people. And you can't have everything perfect at once. But living with ambiguity in the constitutional order is hugely important. You cannot have every political question cannot be total war. Politics has to be about a mediation of differences. And there is reason to hope. The title of the book comes as a play on Frederick Douglass said, I do not despair of this country. The fiat of the almighty, let there be light, has not yet spent its force. Frederick Douglass thought that and he helped create a climate of opinion that Lincoln was also an architect of. He believed in the promise of the country and he believed that without union, chaos resulted. Because one of the criticisms of Lincoln is that, well, he, in fact, the abolitionists thought this, well,

you're preserving a union that gives these slave owners and these awful people a too powerful a voice. His question was, well, if we just let them go, there's no way to free the enslaved. It becomes its own entity and becomes a nation among the powers of the earth. So we have to fight. So one of the things you have to answer is what's worth fighting for? And constitutional democracy, I think, is one of them. You know, off of Willie's question, John, the two lead stories in the New York Times this morning, lead story on the right hand side of the front page. Most voters say U.S.

democracy is under threat, but few feel urgency. Twinned with that story is right prepares activist army to watch a vote trained to aggressively seek irregularities. So today, I would submit that we are a much smaller nation in the sense that the toxicity, that toxic cloud of politics has so overwhelmed this country that we do feel divided from one another. What hope do you see within the framework of what Lincoln had to contend with, which was a rupture of the country compared to today where things travel literally with the speed of light? Yeah, well, speed is relative, right? So for Lincoln, newspapers, Telegraph, that was an information superhighway. So the world is remote, but it's not as though it's the Peloponnesian War, right?

He was dealing with mass communications. He was dealing with a country that could agitate itself, could manufacture emotion, could capitalize on the emotion of division, which is what politicians were doing at the time. What gives me hope is that here was this fallen, frail, and fallible man who was not perfect, to go back to Eugene's question, not perfect at all, who transcended those limitations and convinced just enough of us to do the same thing. I think we have to look at Lincoln in the same way we look at ourselves, which is not expecting perfection, but hoping that we can get just enough right. And Lincoln did it. Barely.

But that's been true since the Garden of Eden. Right. We just barely get it done. And his capacity to believe that, in fact, we had it within ourselves to govern ourselves. The whole point of the Gettysburg Address, right, is to take the country back to its first principles. And its first principles was not the Constitution. Four score and seven years ago was the Declaration of Independence. And that central sentence that we are all created equal, a radical and revolutionary idea in modernity. And he wanted to he was willing to fight for it,

both literally and figuratively. I pray that we are figuratively fighting for it. But if we don't believe that, then in fact, the national experiment doesn't work because nothing unites us except an assent, an agreement with that idea. And how unbelievable. John says that Lincoln got it done, but he got it done just barely. I mean, he got it done. Appomattox Courthouse, April 9th, 1865. Lee surrenders. Less than a week later, Abraham Lincoln is dead. A 30-year fight. And it was a 30-year fight. Michael Beschloss. I think this doesn't just apply to

Lincoln. You look at, for instance, LBJ, who actually chided Richard Nixon for being too self-righteous on civil rights in 1957 when he was vice president, who did not have a great background fighting for for civil rights. And yet what he did in 64 and 65, absolutely extraordinary. With Lincoln, you had somebody who represented a runaway slave in the 1830s. In the 1840s, he represented a slave owner. He fought in the 50s. He came back, gave extraordinary speeches in the 50s, talking about stopping the spread of slavery. And yet in the 56 campaign, he would say different things in northern Illinois than he said in southern Illinois, in southern Illinois, sounding far more, actually sounding less like the Abraham Lincoln we know and have come to cherish. But there's a quote that John writes early in his book from Lincoln, where he says, I walk slowly, but I never walk backward. This is a pragmatic politician

who understood that it wasn't just the South that was filled with racists, that he was actually dealing with a racist North who was fine preserving the union, but they weren't so fine having slaves free and certainly did not want to live in the same communities as black people. And that's the background that Abraham Lincoln, the political minefield he was walking through for 30 years. It's an extraordinary story of what he accomplished. It sure is. And, you know, the fascinating thing, this is, by the way, my copy of John's book arrived by Pony Express last week. I've been reading, read it twice, compulsively readable, classic Meacham book in two ways. Number one, fascinating story. Who in American history could be more fascinating to learn more about than

Abraham Lincoln? And we have new discoveries about Lincoln. But more than that, what was the most tragically divided year in American history? It was 1860. Very close runner up, sadly, is 2022. And three weeks before the 1860 election, this country was not only divided, but Lincoln had to decide if he became president, did he feel these things so strongly that he was willing to go to the edge of civil war? So my question to John is, you know, these two apocalyptic sides to Lincoln, number one, the great uniter in all history, but also at the same time, he felt so strongly about union and his hatred of slavery, which you write about beautifully, that he was willing to go to the brink of civil war. What does that tell us about 2022?

It tells us that if we believe in the American proposition of equality and liberty under law, then we have to be willing to stand up for it. I don't think we're going to get to massed armies, but we are living with civil chaos, with periodic violence, as we all know. And I think what the Lincoln example, and I've learned so much of this from you, Michael, the Lincoln example is in fact that he was not willing to compromise. He comes into office, 39 percent of the vote, not on the ballot and a huge part of the South. And a perfectly plausible deal is put on the table. What is America if not an exercise in compromise?

His hero was Henry Clay, who had done it again and again. And he said no, that he was not going to surrender a principle before he took his duly elected office. And that moment is vital. It's like Churchill in 1940. Same with Fort Sumter. William Seward and Winfield Scott and others did not want him to bet the entire country on Sumter. But he said, no, that in fact, there has to be a point beyond which we will we will not let things go. And so this is our red line. Yeah. And for us, I think the red line has to be, are these going to be democratically, lowercase d, fair and free elections? And if so, we respect them. And if you don't respect them, then you are falling out of a democratic covenant and you're falling into a state of nature.

You know, John, I just want to end up with what you said. There's a time for all seasons. And for Lincoln, reading your instant classic, reading Eric Foner's The Fiery Trial, you see Lincoln and you get there. You know, some people, some historical figures are just a joy to read. With all of his failings and flaws, Winston Churchill. Just it's just it's a fascinating read. FDR, the tragedy of Polio. But he was such a positive figure. And it's actually just seeing a joy of him just fighting over and over again his affliction to become president of the United States through depression

or Lincoln, I found was I mean, Lincoln's hard. He's struggling with slavery. He's struggling with how in the world do I sell this when I come from a state, a northern state that voted 70 percent in a referendum to keep black people out of out of out of the state and it's this struggle but i bring all this up to say as you said he had that struggle and then he got elected president of the united states and suddenly the clouds part and he really does make the decision. All right, I'm here. I'm not going to compromise. I don't want war. We'll work in good faith with the South. But on so many of these issues, it was almost like Lincoln at that point, just really steely resolve. And suddenly you notice the compromises start getting

moved to the side. He's where he needs to be to stop the spread of slavery. And he refuses to compromise. And it's to me, one of the one of the main reasons I wanted to do this was to explore why did he do what he did? We all know kind of how he did it. I mean, the most, you know, the great the great politician, the great statesman. But why did he do it? Why did he believe in American democracy? Why was he anti-slavery? I think a lot of it goes back to his parents religious background. He was not a conventional Christian at all. He was more of kind of a Unitarian guy with a tragic sensibility.

But he believed that, as Theodore Parker said, the abolitionist minister, that the arc of a moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice. He also knew that it doesn't bend toward justice if people aren't insisting that it swerve toward justice, because there are always going to be forces of reaction pulling the other way. And that conscientious insight, the capacity to bring bring conscience to bear on political, economic, cultural issues of contention. That's where American greatness comes. It's where human greatness comes.

And I'm not mindlessly celebrating this guy at all. I don't think we should look up at him adoringly or down on him condescendingly. I don't think he was Martin Luther King in a stovepipe hat. But I also don't think we can dismiss him from the American conversation. Everett Dirksen once said, every American politician has to get right with Lincoln. And I think every American in this hour, I believe, needs to grapple with what he did, because as Mike just said, we may be confronting this question ourselves. And so why wouldn't we want to be in conversation with someone who saw us through a storm like this? John Meacham, thank you very much. And John will be back with us throughout the week for more on his brand new book entitled And There Was Light, Abraham Lincoln and the American Struggle.

Historian Michael Beschloss, thank you as well.