Morning Joe - Morning Joe 10/23/23

Episode Date: October 23, 2023

Potential ground invasion of Gaza looms

We expect that there's a likelihood of escalation, escalation by Iranian proxies directed against our forces, directed against our personnel. We are taking steps to make sure that we can effectively defend our people and respond decisively if we need to. This is not what we want, not what we're looking for. We don't want escalation. We don't want to see a second or third front develop. We don't want to see our forces or our personnel come under fire. But if that happens, we're ready for it. Secretary of State Antony Blinken making it clear the United States will respond to any provocation from Iran connected to the Israel-Humans war. It comes as Israel's defense forces are expanding

airstrikes in Gaza. We'll get the latest with a live report from Israel straight ahead. Plus, new reporting on how President Biden and other U.S. officials helped delay the ground invasion of the territory. Also ahead, we'll dig into the Republican-led dysfunction on Capitol Hill. There are now several candidates hoping to become House Speaker after Jim Jordan's failed bid. And we'll get you expert legal analysis on Donald Trump's violation of the gag order in his civil fraud trial, as well as another new guilty plea deal from one of his co-defendants in the Georgia case. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. And the news just doesn't stop over the weekend. It's Monday, October 23rd. And with us, we have the host of Way Too Early,

White House Bureau Chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire, former aide to the George W. Bush White House and State Department, Solis Jordan. She's an MSNBC political analyst, columnist and associate editor for The Washington Post. David Ignatius joins us this morning and former chief of staff at the CIA and Department of Defense. Jeremy Bash is here. He's an NBC News national security analyst. And we will dive right in. Israel's defense forces launched new airstrikes into Gaza, the West Bank and Lebanon as Israel expands the scope of its offensive against Hamas terrorists. Residents of the of North Gaza received new warnings from Israel to evacuate to the south of the territory. Warnings that suggested the residents could be identified as sympathizers with a terrorist organization if they stay put.

In the West Bank, the IDF says its airstrike on an underground compound at a mosque struck a terror cell. And overnight, Israel's military says it hit two Hezbollah cells in Lebanon that it believed were designing a plan to launch missiles and rockets into Israel. Meanwhile, a second humanitarian convoy has reached the Gaza Strip. A total of 14 trucks carrying food, water and medicine arrived yesterday, according to a U.N. official. The trucks were inspected by Israel's defense forces prior to entry and no fuel was allowed in. Yesterday's convoy followed the first round of trucks carrying supplies to be allowed into Gaza on Saturday. That shipment was packed onto

20 trucks and was described by the U.N. as, quote, a fraction of what is needed after 13 days of complete siege. All right, let's bring in right now NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel. He's live from northern Israel near the Lebanese border. Richard, you're following the latest on potential ground invasion. What can you tell us? So first, let me set the scene where I am, because you just talked about those Israeli strikes against Hezbollah. So we are in the town of Kiryat Shmoneh, which is right on the Lebanese border.

In fact, those hills behind me, on the backside of them, that's Lebanon. And that territory right behind these hills is where Hezbollah has its fighters. It has rocket positions. So if a war were to expand, that second front that Blinken was concerned about, that Israel's concerned about, that the United States is concerned about, it would come potentially from this area with rockets and or fighters coming over these hills and then down into Israel. The big news here this morning is a lot of talk in the Israeli media, it's on the television and all the leading newspapers, that the ground offensive may be delayed for an indeterminate period of time after the United States was not pressuring Israel, but encouraging Israel to slow things down, to give it a beat, because there does seem to be some movement with the negotiations via Qatar to free hostages. As you remember, two American-Israeli hostages were freed on Friday. All weekend,

those hostage negotiations have been continuing and do seem to be making some sort of progress to allow more U.S. military buildup in this area to harden American defenses in case there is an escalation, in case there is a war with Hezbollah, in case there is a war with Iran, and to see if diplomacy can have some sort of impact to de-escalate this crisis. There was, over the weekend, a summit in Cairo. So a lot of pieces are in motion. Israel is still carrying out its airstrikes. It also carried out a ground commando raid near the border. So the military activity is not slowing down. In fact, last night was the most intense night of airstrikes, according to people in Gaza, that they have seen since the beginning of this conflict to date. So the airstrikes are more intense than ever.

Israeli troops are going in in limited forays. But according to reports that are all over the media here, the ground offensive may be delayed. All right. NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel, thank you very much for that report. Greatly appreciate it. And David Ignatius, let's bring you in. There has been a lot of diplomatic efforts have been undertaken by the United States, especially to slow down, first of all, to stop any fighting north, but also to slow down the ground invasion. And if you look at the opinion of people that that helped shape American foreign policy in Washington, D.C. and I'll just start with you. You you've your column last week, I thought very wisely said they should begin this war by thinking about what follows it, what follows the day after.

And let me just read you what Tom Friedman wrote this weekend in The New York Times. He said Israel is about to make a terrible mistake. Quote, I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank, it'll be making a grave mistake that'll be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests. It could trigger a global conflagration and explode the entire pro-American alliance structure that the United States has built in the region since Henry Kissinger engineered the end of the Yom Kippur War in 1973. It's not about whether Israel has a right to retaliate. It surely does. It is about the right way, the way that does not play into the

hands of Hamas, Iran and Russia. Otherwise, what began as Hamas onslaught against Israel has the potential to trigger a Middle East war with every great power and regional power having a hand in it, which would also make it very difficult to stop once it started. Peggy Noonan also writing this weekend for The Wall Street Journal talked about how she, too, she said, I fear it may be too late. It looks as if plans for a grand invasion of Gaza are in place. Decisions have already been made, possible repercussions considered and perhaps accounted for. And that's it, David, the repercussions. We're talking about Hamas, but that expands out into Iran, which expands out into Russia, which expands out into whether China will fill the United States, distracted with two regional wars, to then go into Taiwan.

And suddenly, we have an emergency the likes of which we really haven't seen since World War II. So it's an exceedingly dangerous situation. I think that what observers like my friend Tom Friedman, like Peggy Noonan, like me, have been writing reflects what senior officials of the administration tell me, which is that it's important that Israel learn the lessons the United States has from its wars in the Middle East. Prime among them, you have to think carefully about the day after the war seems to end and how you govern that area in a way that doesn't just produce more instability also clearly in this environment you have to think about the danger that war will expand in ways you can't predict uh that that this will move from being a one-front war to a two- or three-front war.

And then, as you say, what happens to Russia, what happens to China. I think there are two fundamentals that people should realize have not been altered in any way in Israel. The first is they believe, and I think they have strong support from the administration, Secretary Blinken said it yesterday that the political power of Hamas must be destroyed, that Hamas is simply not prepared to make compromises, that it remains committed to the destruction of Israel. Israel fights wars every few years, and then it comes back. So I think that after the horror of the attacks of October 7, Israelis and senior American officials are united in thinking, we've got to stop this.

Figuring out how you get a different government in Gaza that will work is exceedingly difficult. There are a lot of talks going on with Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, all those countries. The second thing I think people are thinking increasingly about is how do you deal with the humanitarian problem? And also, how do you keep as many of the hostages as possible alive who are being held by Israel? It's over 200 people and people are trying to think carefully, how do we conduct the military operation and keep those people out? That's one big reason why we're seeing the delay. Prepare the battlefield. Make sure you know where the hostages are. Make sure you know exactly how you move in and not get them killed.

And of course, Hamas holding the terrorist group, Hamas holding those hostages and Qatar negotiating to try to release them. David, I'm curious. Here we are three weeks, a little more than three weeks away from just just the horrors of October 7th. There are many things that have been going through all of our minds. So many concerns, so many shocking revelations. Peggy Noonan, though, touched on one of those. And I want to know if you've gotten any insight into what the hell happened. We've talked about the possibility of Netanyahu and a split between the secular professionals who ran Israel and protected Israel since 1948. And then sort of this new breed of ultra orthodox

supporters that Netanyahu had and well, quite bluntly bringing people around him that that were not equipped to protect and defend Israel. This is what Peggy wrote. And Israel needs to dig deep and fortify. She said, what's happening now doesn't feel like the past. When, say, a surprised and underdog Israel, a tough and scrappy nation, spiritually repelled its invaders, or later, when an unstoppable and determined nation came down hard on its foes with all the hardware those foes didn't have. This feels, Peggy writes, and has felt from the beginning like a nation that is not as competent, not as certain. It felt like an Israel that had grown less disciplined with a government that was complacent and distracted. And Israel more generally removed from its founding ideas and its founders.

Peggy concludes by saying, I hope Israel digs deep, re-fortifies and devotes its focus to making itself stronger than it seemed on October 6th. And David, that leads to the question once again, what happened with Israel? And I don't think it was just what happened leading up to this attack. What happened that the Netanyahu government on October 6th revealed Israel to be everything we thought it was not leading up to October. You know, we we have grown up hearing about the Mossad, hearing about Israeli armed forces, hearing about how they were next level, a step above. And as Peggy says, and it's really it's what's frightening because this puts more of the burden on America's shoulders. They did not seem competent on October 6th and a lot of people died because of it. And the question is, why were they so incompetent?

I think as friends, we have the right to ask that question because the burden passes to us if Netanyahu's government can't do the job. So, Joe, there's no secret that the months before this Hamas attack on October 7 were as divisive as any of us have ever seen in Israel. Israel seemed almost at war with itself. It was, as you say, a war between the secular folks who dominate the military and the intelligence services and a more conservative group, many of them ultra-Orthodox, who were part of the Netanyahu coalition. That Israel was at war with itself. And there's just no question that that encouraged Hamas to think that Israel was weaker. I've seen the country come together, and I think the things that they're planning

to deal with Hamas's political power, to get Hamas out without getting too many civilians killed, without getting hostages killed, are at a level of technological expertise that's extraordinary. They'll be things that are really the very latest uses of robotics, of technology. I wouldn't worry about the competence of the Israeli military. I think the central problem that Americans need to understand is that Israel is haunted after the October 7 attack by the reality that deterrence against Hamas failed. Israel thought that Hamas was deterred. They'd

opened the borders. More Gazans were working in Israel than in many, many years. Gaza seems to seem to be prospering a little bit. And they thought, OK, they're not going to be as militant as they've been. That was wrong. They were not deterred. They attacked. So when Israel looks now at Lebanon, at Hezbollah in Lebanon, they think Hezbollah is deterred. They think these are just a few rocket attacks that Hezbollah has to do to keep face in this axis of resistance. But maybe they're wrong. Maybe Hezbollah isn't deterred. And that's what's troubling Israel and that we should, I think, understand and sympathize

with. Well, speaking of the burden you were talking about, Joe, the U.S. is increasing its military presence in the Middle East after a series of suspected Iranian proxy attacks. Joining us now, NBC News national security and military correspondent Courtney Kuby. Courtney, what are these new moves? Yeah, that's right. So one of them involves an aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Eisenhower, that was already planning to head to the Mediterranean.

We heard that announcement just several days ago. Well, now, over the weekend, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has decided instead to move it more towards the Middle East, what we think of as the Fifth Fleet area, the CENTCOM area. So think of the Red Sea, the Persian Gulf, the Gulf of Oman. I spoke with a number of officials over the weekend. We don't know exactly where it's going to go, but it will be closer towards the Iraq side of Fifth Fleet as opposed to the further west side where it would be potentially supporting Israel. That's one thing. In addition to that, Secretary Austin has now authorized a number of additional air defense systems and capabilities moving into the region. So that includes the THAAD.

That's a ballistic missile defense system. That's also going somewhere in CENTCOM. I will say the Pentagon's being pretty vague about where these systems and these individuals are going to go. There's also going to be additional Patriot battalions going in. Now there's already Patriot systems in the region. Those are also air defense systems, but they're going to send additional systems. We don't know exactly the specifics of it and some of the personnel to operate those systems. Now, in addition to that, we learned a week or two ago that the Secretary of Defense had also put about 2,000 service members on what's called a prepare to deploy order. So what that means is rather most of these were already individuals who are on sort of

a short leash to deploy, generally about 96 hours. Well, they were switched to 24 hours. And that means that from the time you get the call that you have to go till you're on that airfield ready to get on the plane is 24 hours. He's added an additional couple hundred people to that list. These are support personnel. So the first question I always get when I talk about these prepare to deploy orders is, are these people who are going to go in and start fighting in Gaza? Well, the officials say that is not the case. These are support personnel. So medical support, explosives experts, more air defense experts. So people who will be brought into the region to help out with exactly what you all have been talking about. And that is the threat from some of these regional actors. Now, last week, we saw a real uptick in attack against

bases housing U.S. forces in Iraq and in Syria. And I cannot underscore how unusual what we saw with the USS Kearney, where they took out a couple of missiles fired from the Houthis up towards Israel. That is basically unprecedented and also new. We did not realize that the Houthis had the capability to fire missiles that could go all the way from Yemen up to Israel. So these things really have U.S. officials, defense officials concerned, and they are moving forces in to try to deter and protect against them. Joe and Mika. All right. NBC News national security and military correspondent Courtney Kuby. Thank you very much for that report. We appreciate it. Jerry Bash, as we look at everything that's moving forward, it seems a couple of things are going on at once. Israel is slowing down, I think, based on, I won't say pressure, but advice from the United States. The United States is using this time to re-fortify Israel and the United States and

Qatar are using this time to negotiate, to try to get hostages out. But I'm curious, at the end of the day, I still don't think we're talking about an Israel that coexists with Hamas inside its borders. I think that's right, Joe. I mean, for all the discussion about how Israel has to figure out its endgame. I mean, what is the endgame for those who say Israel should not conduct counterterrorism operations? And I think that's really the issue that's confronting U.S. and Israeli policymakers and Arab leaders, too, which is if Hamas is allowed to exist in the Gaza Strip, then won't these attacks just unfold over and over and over again? Because as you pointed out,

Hamas was not deterred. And so, you know, in some respects, although I think it's fair to say that the U.S. and Israel are closely coordinating the timing of Israel's counterterrorism operations, I don't see fundamentally Israel calling off its counterterrorism offensive against Hamas. How could they? Of course, they killed 30 Americans. They've got maybe as many as 10 American hostages, as well as an additional 200 Israeli hostages, actually hostages from many nations. So undoubtedly, Hamas is not going to be allowed to control the Gaza Strip. And here, Joe and Mika, I really think this is going to fall on Arab governments, Arab leaders, primarily Egypt, to figure out what security in the Gaza Strip looks like over the long term. Yep. I want to circle back to you there.

I've talked to, like you, I know, talked to a lot of contacts across the Middle East, talked to contacts in the United States who have a long history of working with Israel and in the Middle East. And it does seem, while there is initial pushback, it does seem, as Jeremy was saying, the best move is to rid Gaza of terrorists, bring in an Arab-led peacekeeping coalition, perhaps under the United Nations. And I must say, there's a third part of this that really surprises me, because, you know, what we see in the news is Arab street hates America, et cetera, et cetera. But it seems one Arab nation after another Arab nation after another Arab nation says, yes, we'll consider this. The United States has to be there. You guys have to lead. We're not going to be out there on our own.

If the U.S. is in, then the Sunni Arab nations will be part of this peacekeeping process. Because I say, what about the U.N.? They go, what about the U.N.? They go, what about the U.N.? We need the U.S. to be the leaders that they need to be right now, which again, surprised me, but I'm sure probably doesn't surprise you. So we say so often, Joe, that the United States is the indispensable requirement in international order. And here's a good example of it. You have all these countries saying, we're prepared to help, but we need U.S. leadership. That's especially

true with the moderate Arab countries. They don't like Hamas. In their own countries, Hamas is generally banned. They certainly don't like the Iranians, who were Hamas's biggest backers. This is a fundamental opposition. So in that sense, they support Israel's desire to destroy Hamas power in Gaza. The question is how to do that in a way that doesn't lead to their own political disasters. You see crowds in the streets in Amman and Jordan denouncing any efforts to help Israel. You see the nature of their problem. As I talk to Arab leaders, they want to be part of a long-term solution that brings different governance to Gaza and also to the West Bank, a new kind of Palestinian authority

you know finally some some progress in getting decent governments for the Palestinians less corruption they want to help in that but they can't do it alone they simply can't organize it so there's a big choice ahead for the administration whether to jump back in to the Middle East not just in bolstering Israel in this crisis, but in really forging a mechanism to get eventually a Palestinian state over the resistance of many Israelis. Israelis are fed up with dealing with the Palestinians. You can hear that in their voices. So that's part of that's part of the political drama that's playing out. But but you're quite

right that many Arabs would be willing to do this if the United States was willing to lead it. Yeah. Senior Biden officials I speak to certainly have throughout the president's term have not wanted to make the Middle East a priority. They have tried to shift away from that. You know, the pivot to Asia. Obviously, the war in Ukraine became a focal point. But now they see this certainly on a precipice. And the aides that I spoke to over the weekend say, yes, the president, other White House aides have signaled to Tel Aviv to try to slow down, to proceed cautiously here, to minimize civilian casualties, to try to prevent the U.S. from being dragged in further into this war. Israel has indeed pushed the pause button. But I think aides caution me not to read too much into that.

There's not a real sense that Israel's adhering to the U.S.'s wishes. This is also this might just be strategy. They're trying to soften the ground with these airstrikes, which we saw escalate dramatically over the weekend. There's also the concern about the hostages who are still there. So at least Jordan, I mean, an aides point to me that there had seemed to be some momentum building perhaps for Israel to have more targeted, smaller strikes into Gaza. The buildup is just extraordinary. The size of the manpower and the equipment that Israel is putting near the border that could indicate a full-on operation. If that is what happens, if they go in all the way in, how do you see that happening, both within the situation in Gaza itself, but also the region reacting? Well, I think we're going to see what is now a counter terrorism operation turn into gradually that dirty word that no one wants to hear, counterinsurgency.

And that's what I really am concerned about, that the Israelis get drawn into a long counterinsurgency in Gaza that is only going to be horrible for both sides and especially for civilians. And you look at the history of the last two decades and how this went for the American military in Fallujah and those hard battles. You look at the battle for Mosul and against ISIS, and that went on for over 200 days. And Mosul is probably about the same size battle space as Gaza. This is going to be very difficult, very bloody and very long. And Jeremy, I wanted to follow up on that. We hear people talking about how this can't be done and and street to street fighting in Gaza. And it'll be terrible. We did it in Mosul. We had to do it in Mosul.

People wanted ISIS destroyed. And that's ultimately what we had to do, isn't it? Yeah. And we decapitated al Qaeda's leadership. We ultimately thwarted ISIS. This can be done with precision intelligence, precision fires, good ground operations, good air power, good naval power. Israel has all of those capabilities. And so having the U.S. and Israel closely coordinate on this campaign, I agree there's no rush here. After 9-11, we didn't go into Afghanistan for a full month. Israel's got time here. They've got the ability to set the force. The U.S. can set the force. But this is going to be a military solution to take out Hamas's leadership. Those people who think, oh, Israel should just hang back. It's not worth it. It's going to be too costly. That's unrealistic. This would be the equivalent, Joe and Mika, of 50,000 Americans being killed in a terrorist attack and 5,000 hostages. There's

no way we would hold back and neither will Israel. Well, and the United States will not tell Israel not to destroy Hamas because, well, they, Israel wouldn't listen. In fact, I think no country would listen that had the equivalent of 50,000 Americans killed in a terror attack. The way these Israelis were tortured, beheaded, burned, raped, kids shot in front of their parents, parents shot in front of their kids. Just a list of just the most horrific, barbaric acts. But David Ignatius, let's not kid ourselves. This is ultimately going to move forward. But it doesn't matter how good Israel's intel ultimately becomes. It doesn't matter how precise their weapons are. It doesn't matter

what robotics they may have. This is this is still going to be street to street, building to building, room to room fighting. And it's going to be ugly. War is ugly. And this war is going to is going to be especially painful to watch on TV, the attack on an urban area. I said to an Israeli official over the last few days, remembering General Petraeus' formula for Iraq, clear, hold, build. Okay, Israel's going to go in, whether it's this week, next week, whenever, they'll go in hard against Hamas. They are going to destroy Hamas. There's no question about it. They will clear Hamas' political power in Gaza. You can bet on it. Who's going to hold Gaza in the chaos that follows in that power vacuum? Well,

Israeli answers are not clear yet. They wonder if the Arabs would help them. Could the Palestinian authority in the West Bank be revitalized and come in? Could you have some kind of international force? Not a good answer. How are you going to build that place so it's not just a mess, a barren mess? I've been in Gaza. It's one of the saddest places on this planet. How do you change that over time?

And thinking about each of those three, OK, clear, we got that. Hold. How are you going to do that? And finally, how do you build? People want to those three words will help us think about what's ahead. Almost impossible questions that have to be answered for this all to work. David Ignatius and Jeremy Bash, thank you both very much for being on this morning and still ahead on Morning Joe.

We now know the next house speaker will not be Jim Jordan, but that's about all we know. There are now nine others running for the gavel and no speaker for a long time. Hopefully, hopefully one of those nine will get the votes needed for the Republicans to start running the House again. Let's let's keep our fingers crossed. Also ahead, following Sidney Powell's guilty plea in the Georgia election interference case, Donald Trump claimed over the weekend she was never his lawyer. Yeah, but she was, according to him. You'll never guess who once did announce Sidney Powell was his lawyer. We'll be right back. I want a speaker in the chair so we can move forward and get my issues, my committee of war and peace. It's too dangerous right now. The world's on fire.

And this is so dangerous what we're doing. And most importantly, it's embarrassing because it empowers and emboldens our adversaries like Chairman Xi, who says, you know, democracy doesn't work. That was chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee, Republican Congressman Michael McCaul of Texas. What do you think of what he had to say? I think he's right. I think Chairman McCaul has been right on so many fronts over the past six months, including Ukraine, where we hear from the isolationists who want the United States to turn Ukraine over to Russia in the Republican Party. And Michael McCaul, the chairman, has always been strong and forceful, saying not only do we support what the administration is doing on Ukraine, we think they should do more, think they should send weapons sooner, which, again, that's a good balance and that's a good debate to have.

But here, Chairman McCaul is exactly right. The winner of this, other than five or six members of the House of Representatives who get more hits on TikTok and get more small donors sending $25, $50 from across the country. The real winners here are Chairman Xi, as Mike McCaul said, or Chairman Xi, Vladimir Putin, Kim Jong-un, the mullahs in Iran, all the people, all the people that say freedom doesn't work, all the people that say American democracy doesn't work, that is what they say. And they do use moments like this to talk to our allies in Europe to say, see, the United States, they don't have their act together. Follow us. Be on our side. Be in our camp. And this doesn't even talk. I mean, I talk I've talked to some leaders from non-aligned countries like India and across the Middle East who are kind of getting the push and the pull from China and the United States.

And they will say to me, wait, why do you keep talking about how great America is? You all can't even run your own Congress. So I know we look at one or two members that are cynically using this just because they want attention. But I hope the Republican Party will come together. They will find a compromise candidate that sends a message, not just to voters a year from now. Which would help them. Which would help them. Right. But also sends a message to our enemies in communist China, people who think we're their enemies. I don't consider any country our enemies other than Iran.

But China, they're our rivals. And and we can't have our rivals there or in Russia or anywhere, Iran, anywhere else across the world pointing to the United States Congress and saying, look how dysfunctional they are. Follow us. Be on our side. Our model of government works better. It was already a joke when Kevin McCarthy had to do vote after vote after vote after vote after vote and not getting them every time until finally cutting a deal that was impossible for his survival as speaker. And now they're finding a new level here. No speaker, literally no speaker. And this morning there are now nine candidates vying for the position. their candidacies after Congressman Jim Jordan of Ohio dropped his bid late last week following three failed House floor votes. Who goes out there without the votes? Republicans. Joining us now, congressional investigations reporter for The Washington Post, Jackie Alimani. Jackie,

what happens next? Yeah, good morning, Mika and Joe. These nine candidates are now going to make their case to the House GOP conference in an internal setting. That's going to start this evening. It appears highly unlikely that we're going to actually get to a House floor vote imminently, as, you know, based on the past few weeks, what we've seen with Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, people who were two very popular members with pretty big constituencies within the party. And these nine members whom you just mentioned and showed up on the screen are all, I think, fair to say, backbenchers, people who do not have the largest profiles, who do have minor leadership roles within the party, but again, have nowhere near the national profile as Scalise and Jordan.

But that actually might work to their advantage. People who have been talking to me behind the scenes advocating for either of these various candidates have said that people like Mike Johnson, who are well-liked within the conference and have developed a good reputation, but don't have a national profile and therefore are less likely to sort of become a boogeyman going into 2024 midterms, which are going to be expected to be fairly competitive, that might be the best bet for the conference going ahead. But again, none of those people off the top of my head seem to be getting anywhere near 217. Jackie, looking at the tier of candidates now, it does seem a little bit like a Republican debate, the second debate stage where the next

group of finalists and you know that those people in the Republican debates, of course, are not going to make it to become the nominee. But here, this is really someone from this pool needs to win if the country is going to start to function again. How do you see this playing out over the next few days? And or do you just see it as a much longer process than even this week? Yeah, Elise, you know, I was telling some people over the weekend that I wouldn't be shocked if this went on another 20 days. And the common refrain that we have been hearing all along is that it's always been McHenry. That's Patrick McHenry of North Carolina. He's sort of that third person in the holy trinity of Jim Jordan,

Kevin McCarthy and McHenry. And he is someone who has eschewed trying to be House speaker. He has said he didn't want to take advantage of the powers as the interim speaker. He has said that he doesn't think that he has the constitutional right to get any legislation and sort of facilitate that on the House floor. But he is someone that everyone keeps coming back to. And there is a feeling that after we go through what we're about to go through for a few more iterations, another candidate within the party going through the speaker's cycle and then losing on the House floor, that McHenry is the inevitable option.

We had that resolution brought forward by Dave Joyce last week that did gain a little bit of momentum, although not enough to have people supported in that closed door meeting on Friday where Jim Jordan ultimately bowed out after he he failed to win a secret ballot. And then there is there's some rumors that another resolution that would include propping McHenry up as the interim speaker on a little bit of a more permanent extended basis will be introduced again. But that is contingent on Democrats also stepping in who are now waiting and just slow watching this this infighting take place within the GOP and are going to, I think, wait it out a little bit longer. Yeah. And to Jackie's point, Democrats I've spoken to say that they're not inclined to rush in there, that if they were going to make some sort of agreement to help, say, McHenry become a coalition type leader, that they would need real concrete, enforceable concessions in order to make that happen. And nothing has been of the offering just yet because there are so many Republicans who simply don't want to go down that path.

We should mention Congressman Emmer, who right now is perceived as perhaps the slight favorite. Donald Trump weighed in on this over the weekend, has made it very clear he does not want Emmert to be speaker. Now, we don't know how much of a real voice, how much influence he truly has in the House. Let's remember that Jim Jordan was his guy initially. First, the GOP went to Scalise, and then Jordan, after he lost his two rounds, was resoundingly shot down in that secret ballot among his fellow Republicans. So striking, mind you, that Republicans in public still largely back Jordan. But as soon as they were given the option to vote behind closed doors in the secret ballot, they decisively knocked him down. And Joe Amica. And of course, as this continues, it's not just about Israel and Ukraine aid that can't be produced.

The government is due to shut down in under a month. And there's no sign of any deal here. It's unbelievable. And, you know, I've got to say, at least, Jordan, does that not sum up more effectively years under Trump than anything we've ever seen? You talk to 98 percent of the members in the House and the Senate who are Republicans, they privately hate Trump, hate him, always have. They get in front of a camera and they just they sell their political soul to him. Here, Jim Jordan, the overwhelming majority voted for him when it was a public vote. But when it was a private vote, they couldn't get away from him fast enough. The flip was incredible.

Yeah, just the cowardice of so many of these members, pretty shocking. I mean, you know, people knew if I were for them or against them. And private votes, public statements, you know, at least when we served, you know, you knew where everybody stood. Now it's just the opposite. Well, Joe, I want to go back to what happened to those members who decided not to vote for Jordan. They got a lot of threats. They had to send a sheriff to their child's school, the death threats, you know, to deal with that. It's not something you take lightly. And so it took a lot of courage to make that vote. But this is the climate of extremism that Donald Trump has wrought and that now it's being embraced by all by, you know, the most extreme of his followers.

But we see how that now comes into this speaker's race. And it's very scary. And you think about how it degrades the caliber of men and women who dare to go into politics if they know this is what they're going to have to deal with. Members of their own caucus inciting violence against them. I was going to say it's not even so many consequences. Republican are conservatives threatening Democrats or conservatives threatening media members, which they do all the time, are conservative. I say conservatives, Trumpers, extreme MAGA Trumpers threatening all these different people. It's now these MAGA Trumpers threatening Republicans. That's that's just how how much the virus is spread it's obviously horrible when anybody

is threatened because of their political views but it's gotten so extreme that it's now inside the conference on votes for speaker of the house that's just crazy the washington post jackie alimany thank you as always for being on morning. We need to turn now to some major developments surrounding Donald Trump's indictments. Trump campaign legal advisor Kenneth Chesbrough is now the third co-defendant in the Fulton County election interference case to plead guilty. Chesbrough entered the plea on Friday as jury selection for his trial was underway. He was charged with one felony count of conspiracy to commit filing false documents. He faces five years of probation and a five thousand dollar fine, among other terms.

He will also be required to provide documents and evidence to the state. Chesbrough had rejected an earlier deal and was set to stand trial alone after co-defendant Sidney Powell took a deal last week. As for Powell, Trump is now claiming she was never actually his lawyer. Really? That's interesting. I'm so confused. Because he used to say she was in a post on truth, social truth, truth, social. We put that in quotes. Truth. Trump said, quote, Ms. Powell was not my attorney and never was. However, that contradicts a November 2020 tweet in which Trump wrote Powell and had joined his legal wrote that she had joined his legal team.

And the team was being spearheaded by Trump's former personal attorney, Rudy Giuliani. A truly great team. Wow. Giuliani also confirmed Powell's involvement during a November 2020 press conference. This is representative of our legal team. We're representing President Trump and we're representing the Trump campaign. When I finish, Sidney Powell and then and then Jenna Ellis will follow me. There are a lot more lawyers working on this, but we're the I guess we're the we're the senior lawyers. Senior lawyers who spent a lot of time in the white house that's bringing former u.s attorneys barbara mcquade and joyce vance this is like having half of the avengers right this is half

of the sisters-in-law and on their part to do the whole their podcast a couple days ago which was great they talked about all this you know what the title of it was? What? Cheese and Kraken. I love it. Oh, my God, that's really good. Cheese and Kraken. I wish I had thought about that myself. So let's talk about it. I also have to be nice to Barbara because Michigan just keeps winning. So go blue, Barbara. Go blue. Thanks, Joe.

Hard for me to say from Alabama. All right, so let's talk about this. And we'll start, Barbara, with you. What is the significance of Chesbrough's plea? I think this is an incredibly significant plea, Joe. You know, I think Sidney Powell felt a little more important just because she was the face of the legal team. She was out there so much with her release, the Kraken and other things. But Chesbrough was the one who was the architect of the false elector scheme. He is someone who can provide a lot of testimony about that scheme.

And he may be the domino that knocks over some other dominoes that are really important. Jenna Ellis, John Eastman and John Eastman, of course, is someone who was close to Donald Trump, was the one who was whispering in his ear and was the one who was pushing this theory. So I think it's an incredibly significant moment. On your podcast a couple of days ago, you also talked about Joyce. You talked about what this would mean for the other defendants in the case. Explain that here. Right. So it's exactly as Barb says, what prosecutors are looking for here is a domino effect because these two plea bargains taken together really put pressure on other co-defendants in a couple of different ways. First off, there's this notion that the defendants who are first in to make deals will get the best deals. And neither Powell nor Chesbrough has to serve time in prison as a result

of their plea agreement. That's a powerful motivator. But now we're looking at this big block of remaining defendants. There is no trial date set right now. That's something I think we'll see happen in the next week as Judge McAfee gets back to work. The question is who among the remaining defendants now wants to come in and cut a deal with Fannie Willis in hopes they have unique, valuable information that prosecutors still need before everything else gets underway. And then, Joe and Mika, there's one final interesting factor here that we really don't have much insight into, and that's whether these folks who are now cooperating in Fulton County will also cooperate in the federal investigation.

Chesbrough was the architect of the fake elector scheme, not just in Georgia, but in multiple states. He would certainly be very helpful for Jack Smith as he looks more globally at Trump and his cohorts misconduct. Yeah, we'll be watching whether he cooperates there as well. Barbara, I want to turn to the New York civil case. The judge there slapped Trump with a violation of the gag order. We all recall it was a few weeks ago. Trump had posted about a law clerk there, a person who worked for the judge. He was reprimanded. He took it down. It turns out that posting was still on the campaign website.

The campaign says it was a mistake. The judge said he believed them, but still offered just a $5,000 fine for Trump. But noteworthy that it's, A, the first time that a gag order penalty has been issued. So it seemingly, I'm curious to get your take, whether you think that opens the door for more. And secondly, we should note, because Trump got a reprieve on this gag order he spent last night, well, seemingly violating it. He went after Jack Smith again by name, called him deranged, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. So Trump is clearly playing with fire here. Barb, how do you see this playing out? Can we see stiffer penalties in the future? Yes. And, you know, I was actually

impressed with Judge Engeron in New York assessing this fine, even though it's relatively low. Five thousand dollars for Donald Trump, I suppose, is not a huge number. But I fully expected a warning for the first offense and then escalating levels of sanctions. Instead, he hit him right away with five thousand dollars and made it clear he was not going to tolerate any future violations. And he's making a record. He's going on record of saying these are serious matters. I would imagine if there's a second offense, that number gets higher. And the ultimate card that the judge holds is jail. Now, Donald Trump certainly seems to be testing a different judge, Judge Chutkin, in federal court. And he may perceive that he has

a little bit of a window of opportunity because there is another hearing on this matter. He said he's going to appeal and he wants a stay of that order. And it is stayed until there can be that hearing. So it may be that he's taking advantage of his last few days of opportunity before he does that. But I think Judge Chutkin would be wise to watch what's happening in New York, because the only way to stop him is to sanction him with making a record and escalating levels. Ultimately, she has that ultimate card of jailing him. So Joyce Martin led me exactly to what I wanted to ask you, is this idea of Judge Chutkin, who has stayed through the own gag order there, at least for now. What's your analysis here?

Is she seeing, A, what just happened in the New York case, and, B, these more screeds on truth social from Trump? Do we think she'll move on this? So she's an experienced judge, and she's doing exactly the right thing here. She's building a record, because it's important if you're thinking about sanctioning a defendant for violating a gag order to make sure that whatever you do will be upheld on appeal. You don't want to impose a sanction just to have the court of appeals reverse you. Judge Chutkan has been very careful. And you'll remember, Jonathan, we've talked about this before. This

was the case where the magistrate judge at arraignment took the unusual step of cautioning Trump and of making sure he understood that as one of his conditions of release, he was not supposed to do anything that would discuss witnesses, court personnel that he needed to be careful about not violating those rules. So this is a court that from the get go has been looking forward to the moment where Donald Trump inevitably violates a gag order. Judge Chutkan is making sure that she's giving him, I think, essentially enough rope to hang himself here. We've seen what happens when she stays the gag order. Trump goes ahead and violates what it would look like if it was in place. She's just making the case on appeal stronger. All right. Former U.S. attorneys Barbara McQuaid, go blue. And Joyce Vance, we saved the best for last. Alabama, third Saturday in October, was looking rough the first

half, but we ended strong. You could hear the cheers swell up in my neighborhood, Joe, especially as our kicker, Will Reichard, became the player in the SEC to score the most points of all time. A real proud moment. Roll Tide. All right. Roll Tide. And would I say roll or go sisters-in-law? I don't know. I don't know. It's something like that. Thanks, guys. Thank you guys for being with us. Very much for being on this morning.