Morning Joe - Morning Joe 10/24/22

Episode Date: October 24, 2022

Voter enthusiasm at 70 percent, an all-time high, according to NBC News polling

I don't think he's man enough to show up. I don't think his lawyers will want him to show up because he has to testify under oath. But I don't think he'll show up. I don't think he's man enough. We'll see. OK. Well, I guess you said that. Nancy Pelosi challenges the former president, doubting he will give any testimony to the January 6th committee.

I don't know if you heard, but she actually said at one point, yeah, she didn't think he was man enough. Right. He didn't have. Yeah. So we'll go through the new timeline in that investigation in just a moment. Meanwhile, alarming new details about what the FBI found at Trump's country club. Documents so sensitive, they could endanger the lives of people who are helping U.S. intelligence. Also ahead, Boris Johnson. Boris Johnson, he wants to come back, right? No, he's a no-go. This is going to be Tom Brady's comeback.

He's a no-go. And really well for everybody involved. He's no longer in the running to become the British prime minister, but a new leader could be named as soon as today. We'll go live to London for that. Plus, Joe, the part of the game you never saw. It's coming now.

OK, the World Series matchup that everyone predicted. I mean, I said, listen, everybody knew, like we said all along, that the Phillies, the Phillies definitely would not be there. This is unbelievable, actually. Philadelphia Phillies are in the fall classic for the first time since 2009. The Houston Astros are back for the fourth time in six years. You got to finally see it. I'm so happy for you. It's so exciting.

Good morning and welcome. Good morning, Joe. It's Monday, October 24th. With us, we have former White House press secretary under President Obama, Robert Gibbs, also a member of the New York Times editorial board, Mara Gay, and the host of Way Too Early and the White House bureau chief at Politico, Jonathan O'Meara. This Phillies game, though, Jonathan O'Meara. I've got to say the Bryce Harper moment really was unbelievable. It was one of those Ortiz moments. This guy's been waiting a decade to be in that

situation. And when he was in that situation, he delivered. A two-run home run that actually put them ahead, put the Phillies ahead of the Padres and on their way to the World Series. It really was. It was just it was an electric moment. I mean, that's that's I will say close to an Ortiz or Kirk Gibson moment, wasn't it? It was. Bryce Harper was one of the most highly touted baseball prospects ever, and he has lived up to it. He has won two MVPs. He is putting up Hall of Fame numbers, but had never had much in the way of postseason success before. In fact, the Washington Nationals, his old team, won a World Series in 2019 soon after Harper left town to sign with the Phillies. But that right there was the swing of a lifetime. That was a magic moment.

The Phillies had blown a lead. It was raining. They were down a run in the eighth inning, and that two-run homer gave them the lead, and they hung on to win. This is a team that had the longest postseason drought in the National League. They haven't won a World Series since 2008, and now they will go. And now they not only get to go to the World Series, Joe, but they are the newly dubbed America's team. Because we need them to beat the Houston Astros. I was certainly in the minority rooting for Houston on this set the last week. And I will just throw it back to you with this.

Joe, do you remember, I know it's been a while, but do you remember when the New York Yankees used to go to World Series? Okay, Jonathan, stop it. All right, everybody hates a bad loser. Everybody hates being a bad loser. Being a bad winner. As a Red Sox fan, you're actually being both. Oh, yeah. Yeah, but, you know, it's going to be setting up.

Yeah, the Phillies against the Astros. But the Phillies have just had an extraordinary run. They've been very critical of adding. I think they have 17 or 18 wildcard teams now in the playoff system. Pensacola Catholic High actually was in one of the early rounds because they throw so many people in there. But I will say these Phillies have proven the upside of that system because it's been a magical run. But they're going up against really a buzzsaw in the Houston Astros. They're going to be a fun World Series.

Well, I, of course, was texting my daughter, who was in that audience, right at like the wrong moment. I guess something really big happened. And I'm like, are you cold, sweetie? Is it raining? So, yeah, I know. That was when Bryce was walking up to the plate. Got it.

OK, let's get to the news. Two weeks away from the midterm elections, new polling shows voter enthusiasm is at an all-time high. In the latest NBC News survey, 70% of voters say they are very interested in casting their ballots next month. That is the highest that number has ever been for a midterm election poll at this point. As for why that is, about 80 percent of voters from both major parties say the opposition poses a major threat that, if not stopped, could destroy America as we know it. Both sides believe this. That belief is so strong that about two thirds of Democrats and Republicans say they are willing to vote for their party's candidate, even if that person had a moral failing in their personal life that goes against their own

values. Let's bring it right now. NBC News political correspondent Steve Kornacki, the big board. Steve, we're seeing that playing out and we're going to get into the polls and how how heated things are. I will say that we are seeing in a few states the prospects of possible ticket splitting. Look at Georgia, where Kemp is doing much better than Herschel Walker. He's walking away with it right now. It seems at least in polls three weeks out, two weeks out. And then you have the same thing in Philadelphia, in Pennsylvania, where you have Dr. Oz, who's actually made it a really tight race and could end up winning, while Josh Shapiro, a Democrat, looks like he's on his way to becoming next governor of Pennsylvania. Yeah, I'd add a third state to that possibly, and for different reasons, different dynamic,

Arizona. Carrie Lake, who has actually echoed everything Donald Trump has said about the 2020 election and was thought, I think, by conventional wisdom to be the weakest candidate Republicans could put up for governor, leading in the gubernatorial polling out there. And meanwhile, in the Senate race, the Democrat Mark Kelly, the incumbent, continues to lead. So there's the potential of a ticket split of a different type out in Arizona this year. Yeah. And, you know, we we did actually see this happen in 2020. And I think the most dramatic sense possible, at least in our times, Joe Biden won Maine by nine points. Susan Collins, who many people thought I thought was going to actually lose

that seat because of Kavanaugh and because, you know, fundraisers with the Federalist Society, the sort of thing she'd run against her entire career there. I thought she was going to lose. She ended up winning by nine points. There's a whopping 18 point swing in Maine, which shows that is still possible and it could happen here. But what races are you? Let's go through the poll from yesterday. Fascinating as always. And and just the interplay between Biden's approval rating, which still is holding up pretty well. But but this race where Republicans seemed really enthusiastic. Yeah, I think that was one of the biggest numbers that jumped out at me.

Let's go through all of them, though, just so you can see what's in this poll here. When you ask the generic ballot question or new NBC poll with registered voters, that's the only criteria for being included in this question here. Democrats actually have a lead of one point. And we've had all year the NBC poll has been has been measuring registered voters and hasn't shown a lot of big swings from poll to poll. So, again, Democrats up a point with registered voters. I think somewhat significantly for the first time we applied a likely voter screen to this as well,

trying to figure out based on people saying what their enthusiasm level is, based on how much they've participated in past midterm elections, that sort of thing, who the likely voters are. And there it flips. Republicans take a one point lead on a likely voter model over Democrats in terms of the top issue here. There's sort of a combination. If you combine jobs and the cost of living or inflation, we ask them separately. But just for simplicity's sake, we combine them here. You know, again, a little bit more than a third of voters citing economy or inflation as their top issue. Republicans among this group of voters with an overwhelming lead.

Republicans also with an overwhelming advantage on the issue of crime. A far smaller number of folks saying that. Democrats putting up their biggest numbers. Those who cite threats to democracy as their top motivating issue. Those who cite abortion as their top motivating issue. That's where Democrats have their key strength in this poll. You mentioned it to Biden's approval rating is 45 percent on the economy, though. It's a little bit lower and I think more significantly on the economy, fully 50 percent of the electorate as they expect the economy to get worse over the next 12 months. So there is this sort of cloud of economic pessimism that's hanging over the electorate here.

And then you're getting to this question here of interest that you talked about. Overall, 70 percent of voters rating themselves with the highest level of interest in these midterm elections, highest we've ever measured that number at this point. But here's what's changed in this poll from our last one. The gap between the Republicans and the Democrats, 78 percent of Republicans put themselves in that highest category, only 69 percent of Democrats. Just go back in time to our last couple polls here. And you can see that gap between Republicans and Democrats was a lot narrower. This was the story of the summer. This was the story following the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe. You saw Democrats pretty much erase the enthusiasm gap Republicans had. Now that enthusiasm gap is creeping back into the picture. And I think when I showed you

earlier that disconnect between the registered voters and the likely voters, that's what this is getting at. So to the extent this becomes a dynamic and this becomes a factor in the final two weeks and one day of this campaign, that's an opportunity there for Republicans. So, Robert Gibbs, I know a lot of Democratic candidates have to be really frustrated. You look at those numbers and you see who's motivated, who's not motivated, and you can almost hear the Democratic candidates going, wait a second, I'm running against an election denier who wants to take away a constitutional right that's been guaranteed to women for 50 years, who says that really January 6th,

where there were riots and the attempt to overthrow a peaceful election and to stop the peaceful transition between presidents for the first time since the Civil War. Democrats don't feel motivated to go out and vote for that. Explain, if you can, your takeaway from that line of the poll, but also the poll overall, what you're looking at. Yeah, well, I think if you look at those numbers, you see Democrats continue to maintain that as Republicans grow their enthusiasm. I think that's highlighted a lot by what you're seeing on the economy, what you're seeing in ads all around the country on crime and immigration. And I think, look, this is a reaction, as most midterms are, to the person that's in the White

House. I think overall, the poll is obviously less good news for Democrats, particularly when you throw in the likely voter screen and it changes a bit of the congressional ballot to a plus one Republican. I am struck, too, Joe Biden's approval rating is still fairly strong for where it's been. I mean, six months ago, it was in the upper 30s. Now it's in solidly in the mid 40s. But I think the issue agenda is what would be concerning if you're a Democratic strategist waking up in the country today. Yeah. And Maura, it seems to me this weekend I spent time reading articles, op eds and getting feedback on on the fact that voters are interested in the economy and concerned about crime. And if Democrats that are trying to convince people that, like, for instance, with the black voters that Elise talked to in

Philadelphia, also, yeah, crime's a big problem. I'm afraid to go to work. I'm afraid to go home. And then we have people saying, oh, they don't know what they're talking about. It's safer than ever in Philadelphia. And oh, how could you say this economy is bad? You don't understand it. Unemployment's at three and a half percent. It's it's it's almost like they're not not grasping what voters are very concerned about. It's striking, Joe. It's amazing because actually I think Democrats have unfortunately allowed the Republican Party to run away with messages on the economy and on crime in many races across the country. I'm not sure that there's a reason for that. Oftentimes, like we're seeing here in New York, the Republican candidate for governor, as an example, Liz Eldon, has been running ads around crime that certainly speak to the concerns that voters have, as all candidates should, but yet don't actually

offer any substantive solutions for public safety. And so there's no reason that Democrats should allow the Republicans to do that. The question is, can Democrats pivot quickly enough, kind of realizing that that's going to be the top concern for many voters in the next coming weeks? Or are they going to kind of have trouble transitioning away from what they thought was going to be the more important issues on voters' minds, which was abortion, for example? It is striking, though, that in many polls, we are seeing that for Democrats, the top issue is often democracy. So the question is, can they turn those voters out as well?

Well, that's the question in terms of timing. Steve Kornacki, how many times have you seen numbers close up or change in the final weeks before a midterm election? What are we, two weeks away, two and a half weeks away? Yeah, two and a half, two weeks and one day away. I mean, we have seen that the parallel has been drawn between this year and 2014. And 2014 was Barack Obama's second midterm. And it ended up being a wave year for Republicans. It was a late building, slow developing wave to the degree that even on election night at about six o'clock election night, a lot of people didn't see it coming. And yet Republicans ended up just winning Senate seat after Senate seat, getting control of that chamber, also winning enough seats in the House to bring them to their highest level there than they'd been since 1928.

That one kind of formed late, developed late. There have been some signs that this one might be moving in that direction. Just give you one measure of it here. We've been tracking the key Senate races here and what the polling average looks like. Here are the Democratic held seats. Republicans trying to pick off. Republicans need a net gain of one. They got to win at least one of these if they hold all of their own.

Republicans continue to have a small lead in Catherine Cortez Masto's Nevada seat. That would be a pickup for Republicans if they were able to get it. Look at Georgia. That number has come down. Raphael Warnock still leading, but he led by several points a few weeks ago. Now, on average, it's one point. We mentioned Mark Kelly in Arizona. He continues to lead, but at two and a half points, that's a very competitive race. And meanwhile, you take a look here at the seats that Republicans are trying to defend. And I think Democrats are getting very nervous about Pennsylvania because of the trajectory of Pennsylvania. John Fetterman, the Democrat, continues to lead. If Fetterman were to win this, that would be a flip. Remember, Pat Toomey, the Republican, now holds this seat, not running for reelection. Democratic win is a net gain.

But August 1st, John Fetterman's lead on average was eight point seven points. Republicans have erased nearly all of that at this point. So the trajectory here has got to be concerning for Democrats. And meanwhile, in some of the more recent polling, you look at Ohio, J.D. Vance, you look at Wisconsin, Ron Johnson. Ron Johnson finds himself leading in polls. That's a brand new place for him in his political life. But the Republican advantage has ticked up a point or two in these states. You can add North Carolina to that list as well. That's what we've seen over the last 10 days. The Republicans have moved into striking distance in a couple of these Democratic held seats, and they have padded, at least in the

polling, they've padded a little bit their advantage in some of the seats that they already hold, in addition to making Pennsylvania much more competitive. So the map, if it holds right there as those numbers, that's still Democrats, that's still 50-50. But you're right in terms of Pennsylvania, Joe Mika being a source of some real anxiety for Democrats. Fetterman and Dr. Oz meet tomorrow night for their one and only debate.

A lot of eyes will be on that. And I was talking to a lot of strategists over the last couple of days who see the voter enthusiasm numbers, but particularly worry about black and Latino voters who have been for so long the real core of the Democratic coalition, that those voters seem less enthusiastic, less motivated this time around, less inclined to break for the Democrats because of issues like crime and because of issues like the economy. And in terms of the polling suggesting what the top voter issues are, it threats to democracy, number one.

But if you add up the inflation, cost of living, economic issues, put them all together, that's still by far the top issue on voters' minds, Joe and Mika. And right now, anyway, with two weeks and a day to go, those seem to be breaking for the Republicans. They do. It is, though. We have a couple of weeks left. And Robert Gibbs, I can't tell you how many election nights I went into where all the polls, the pollsters did their best, the pundits did their best. I can go all the way back to 1980 where the night started. And, you know, we were at least told that that was going to be too close to call. It ended up being a massive victory for Ronald Reagan. I remember, you know, I remember so many races. We talked about 2014. There's another great example. I could talk about 1998 in the middle of impeachment. Every smart person in Washington said it was going to be a massive night for Republicans.

And Newt Gingrich, the Democrats held their own, did very well. Four days later, Newt Gingrich has run out of town. Same thing with 2014. Nobody knew. So when you have a race, we just saw all the key races. There were 10 of them put up on the board by Steve. Six of those 10 races are within the margin of error. We could see things breaking the Republicans way and it did very red night. But but explain how you look what happened in Kansas. Polls were about 15, 16 points off. Look what happened in Kansas. Polls were about 15, 16 points off. Look what happened in 2016. Even in 2020, Biden was supposed to win some states by double digits.

He ended up winning by less than one percent. Talk about how this is still all up for grabs. Yeah, absolutely. And I would say we're at that point in the election where if you're looking for an antidote because you're depressed about something, spin around the internet for 20 or 30 seconds and you can almost certainly find a poll or a polling question that will find and give you some cause for relief. I think we are seeing the strains and the limits of polling, particularly as we get closer and closer to these elections. I would start to look at early turnout numbers here, looking at in places like Nevada, how are Democrats doing in a place like Clark County? Are they building up the types of leads that they normally need to win statewide?

So I think we're coming from the macro of national polling into the micro of really what's happening in states. Your point, Joe, is really important, though. What we have tended to see, again, particularly in these midterm elections, is everything breaks at a certain point. It may break early, it may break late, but it does tend to break in one direction. That doesn't necessarily mean that you're going to end up with 55 Republican senators, but you may end up with one party or another winning all the close races when we get to the end of election. NBC's Steve Kornacki, thank you very much. We'll see you again real soon and still ahead on Morning Joe. We are learning new details about the FBI search of Mar-a-Lago. And it turns out some of the documents taken from Trump's Palm Beach home contained classified intelligence about Iran and China.

Just unbelievable. NBC's Ken Delaney joins us with that new reporting. Plus, what Congresswoman Liz Cheney is saying about the possibility of Donald Trump testifying before the House Select Committee. Also ahead, the latest from the UK, where former Prime Minister Boris Johnson has dropped out of the race to replace outgoing leader Liz Truss. We'll take a look at the top contenders. And later this morning, The Washington Post's Bob Woodward joins us to talk about his new audio book that features more than a dozen interviews with former President Trump. You're watching Morning Joe.

We'll be right back. So the committee treats this matter with great seriousness, and we are going to proceed in terms of the questioning of the former president under oath. It may take multiple days, and it will be done with a level of rigor and discipline and seriousness that it deserves. We are not going to allow the former president. He's not going to turn this into a circus. This isn't going to be, you know, his first debate against Joe Biden and the circus and the food fight that that became. This this is far too serious set of issues. Well, I mean, it's not going to be the first debate with Joe Biden, Jonathan O'Meara, unless he's really roided out. Oh, my God.

Trump was like a professional wrestler. He was sweating. Didn't he have COVID or something? He was roided out. At one point, you know, he started yelling at the podium, said, are you talking to me? Are you talking to me? He was out of his mind. That was one of the craziest performances in debate history. Yeah, he jumped it. I'm walking here. He did one of those. It was out of his mind. That was one of the craziest performances in debate history.

Yeah, he jumped it. I'm walking here. He did one of those. It was out of, yeah, it was a lot. The Trump, of course, it later came out. We've heard from Chief Staff Mark Meadows that he had COVID at the time of that first debate. And certainly he was sweaty and loud at one point. Joe Biden literally said, shut up, man.

So, yeah, hopefully we won't. Hopefully we won't get a repeat of that for his hearing. Certainly right now, people around the president, they don't think he'll actually show up for this. American democracy is strong. OK, let's say that was vice chair, by the way, the January 6th committee, Liz Cheney, on whether the panel is open to live testimony from the former president. And you'll notice she she did not say what Nancy Pelosi said. No, that he wasn't man enough to show up. Well, yeah, she said that kind of twice.

I think he's man enough to show up. Yeah, we saw it twice. Yeah, we saw it twice. I mean, it's just she was emphasizing that point. Well, exactly. On Friday, the January 6th committee officially issued a subpoena to former President Donald Trump demanding he turn over a number of documents related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election by November 4th. The committee also wants any communications he had with extremist groups who were involved in the Capitol attack. Lawmakers ordered Trump to testify under oath on November 14th, either in person at the Capitol or by video conference. Let's bring it right now. NBC News justice and

intelligence correspondent Ken Delaney. Ken, there's not much of a chance that if this goes up to the Supreme Court, they're going to make him go testify. Is there? Good morning, Joe. It's a real interesting question. You know, obviously, this Congress doesn't have very much longer to run and this committee is wrapping up. So I'm trying to understand what the play is here. Do they I mean, they set a very tight deadline of early November for Trump to come over. Do they then try to hold him in contempt of Congress and refer that over to the Justice Department and see whether the Justice Department will act quickly? Because as we've seen

with Steve Bannon, you can't just refuse to show up necessarily. Now, a former president has perhaps his own special claims, but former presidents have testified before Congress. It's never been decided, though, what happens when a former president resists a congressional subpoena. So we'll have to see. But one thing that's clear is that this subpoena was written almost like an indictment. I mean, it summed up the case that the January 6th committee has made, arguing that Donald Trump orchestrated a corrupt scheme to try to overturn the election that broke the law in many respects. And the subpoena also suggested that they have information that Trump is communicating with encrypted apps, which I

found interesting because, you know, this is a man that we all know never uses email, doesn't write anything down. If they have reason to believe he's texting with people on Signal, if they have one end of those conversations, that would be really, really interesting. Yeah. Ken Maragay here. This is fascinating reporting. Just wondering, can you explain to just laymen who really don't understand what a subpoena is, kind of what power the committee has to, if any, to compel the president to testify and what this really actually means in just layman speak? Yeah, no, it's a great question, Maura. This is not like a subpoena from a federal grand jury. It's a congressional subpoena. And so they have very

limited power. They don't have their own police force to go arrest Donald Trump and bring him to Congress. I think that used to exist back in the day, but that doesn't happen anymore. So their only real option here is to they could go to court civilly to try to enforce to get the courts to order Donald Trump to appear. Or they could, as they did with Steve Bannon and Peter Navarro and Mark Meadows, send over, you know, Congress would have to hold him in contempt. And then they send a contempt citation over to the Justice Department and ask the U.S. attorney in Washington to then enforce the subpoena. And if he refuses, as Steve Bannon did, then there's a criminal trial. So, you know, you can see how long that would take. And so it's pretty clear the clock is

running out on this Congress. And, you know, it seems probably that this subpoena is unenforceable. And of course, on Friday, Steve Bannon was sentenced to four months in prison. That's a little less than the DOJ had advised. They were looking for six months, but he's behind bars for four long months right now. Also, the FBI found documents containing classified intelligence regarding Iran and China at former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago home. That is according to two people familiar with the matter, telling NBC News. The Washington Post was first to report the intelligence on Iran and China was found at Mar-a-Lago during the FBI's search of the property in August. Sources tell the Post that if shared with others, such information could expose

intelligence gathering methods that the U.S. wants to keep hidden from the world. At least one document reportedly describes Iran's missile program, while others describe highly sensitive intelligence work aimed at China. The documents are considered to be among the most sensitive the FBI has recovered from Trump's possession to date. In response to this story, a Trump spokesperson provided a statement to NBC News stating, quote, the endless leaks and lies from a weaponized Justice Department, which offered a one million dollar bounty to encourage the fabrication. Oh, my God. I don't need to hear this. Ken, obviously, they've lied time and time again.

We've gotten the facts. The facts have come out. It's shown that actually they're lying even more. So we're just going to assume for now, of course, we could be wrong. But given the track record of what we've heard was contained in these documents and that there were these documents. Talk about how critically important classified documents on Iran and China would be to the intel community and the grave risk that it would pose if it were outside of its secured location. Joe, this is a huge development. And by the way, NBC News did confirm the gist of this Washington Post reporting that these documents were found.

And to me, this really sends the investigation in a disturbing new direction. It's one thing for him to keep classified letters with the North Korean leader or even a classified leadership profile of Emmanuel Macron, the French president. But what possible reason or purpose or interest would he have in highly technical documents about Iran or about intelligence gathering efforts against China, which, by the way, are extremely would be extremely valuable to any adversary or even non-adversary to anybody? This is, you know, hundreds of millions or billions of dollars worth of intelligence. Why does he have this stuff? I mean, this is a huge question in this investigation. And it's a big deal. I mean, this is anybody else who had this stuff would already be in custody. And we've said this before, but this really reinforces it because we didn't know until this moment that we're talking about highly,

highly classified documents about intelligence gathered about our foremost adversaries. This is a huge deal. We need to understand more. And as far as I know, Congress has not yet been briefed on what the FBI found, what else they found at Mar-a-Lago. And that probably needs to happen. If I'm a senior member of Congress, I would like to know quickly what the damage has been from these disclosures. So, Jonathan Lemire, I think that's a point to make. And I think at the end of the day, if we're trying to look down the road to see where all of this goes and people are disgusted by the fact that it seems that Donald Trump gets away with things that nobody else would get away with. Other people would already be in jail for this. I had a conversation this weekend with a weapons specialist who's who is working on secret programs for the United

States military. And we were just discussing what's been happening here. And the guy said, I've been doing this for 20 years. If I took one document out, I would be in jail. They let me know this. You just don't do it. You talk to people in the intel community, they tell you the same thing. I can tell you as a member of Congress, I knew people that I worked with and I served with that actually were charged and went to jail for much less than this. You look and see what happened to two former CIA directors. What happened to a former national security advisor? You know, they were charged with crimes.

And so we sit here right now and we're saying, oh, God, how can he get away with this? I just don't think he is. I don't think he is because we have laws in this country. We're a nation of laws. I think we're finding no person is above the law. So justice will be served. I think the great mystery to us just politically is why people don't give a damn about this if they support Republican candidates. Well, they'll say, oh, it's much ado about nothing when anybody else doing this would be put in jail. And when they were all screaming five years ago, lock her up. Six years ago, lock her up for Hillary Clinton doing far,

far less than this. Yeah. Remember our friend James Teredis, retired four-star admiral said, four-star admiral said if he had one document that he shouldn't have had, he'd have been arrested. So to underscore your point, the ramifications are huge. This is the material that indeed was turned up. This is not showing off to reporters and friends about Kim Jong-un writing him a note. This is not gossiping about Emmanuel Macron's personal life. This is compromising human assets potentially on the ground. It compromises ongoing intelligence operations. It could

change how our allies view us. Would they be less likely to share secrets with the United States because Donald Trump or someone like him could blab about them? It also may upset other nations, foreign, potentially hostile nations, Iran, China, to learn what we've been up to. None of this is good. This is a significant blow, potentially, to learn what we've been up to. None of this is good. This is a significant blow potentially to the intelligence community that this nation has put together so carefully for so many decades. And Robert Gibbs, I want to take a variation of what Joe said to you here. It does seem like people don't seem to care about this, though this is such a big deal. So just through the political lens, I don't know that we're going to see a blowback for the midterms.

But like if Donald Trump is considering his own presidential run again, and by all indications that he is, is this something that can be held against him, setting aside the criminal aspect of it, the political aspect of it? Do you think this will change any voters' minds about him? And if not, why not? Well, look, I think right now we're in the midst of election that isn't focused on this, and that's probably why you're not feeling it at the moment. But do I think this is going to and could impact Donald Trump when and if he decides to run again? I think absolutely. I think all you have to do is look at the NBC poll and understand that we've had a long conversation in the last six months about Joe Biden's approval rating and whether it's strong enough. Donald Trump is 12 points below in the NBC poll, 12 points below where Joe Biden is. And I think it's because of stories like this where you see, one, the people are reminded of the continued chaos that follows Donald Trump wherever he goes. Two, the specifics

of something like this, this isn't going to go away. This is going to get brought up. I think to Joe's point, I think the Justice Department is going to bring this up. I think it becomes, every time we read these stories about a different document and a different thing that has been found during that search, it becomes harder and harder for the Attorney General and the Department of Justice not to do something on this. And I think when the election period ends, this is going to be front and center and it's going to have severe ramifications for Donald Trump. Yeah. And again, I'd mentioned this a couple of weeks ago. I didn't have I didn't have his name, but Dan McLaughlin, a baseball crank.

And he is a crank. It has this as his pinned tweet. And I think it's so right following up on what Robert said, said, remind yourself of this every day. Any day spent talking about Donald Trump is a day Republicans are losing. Any day spent talking about Joe Biden is a day Democrats are losing. And I think we have seen, Mika, over the past couple of weeks, Donald Trump mentioned less because, you know, there haven't been as many news reports out regarding the January 6th committee or regarding other things that he stayed active in. And I agree with Robert. He's toxic. Donald Trump is now toxic to a large enough member of voters in the suburbs of Philadelphia, in the suburbs of Atlanta, in the suburbs of Detroit, in the suburbs of Milwaukee, in the suburbs of Phoenix.

All the places that really move elections and swing states. at some point, there will be just a point where it's very obvious to Republicans, I believe, that if this guy runs, he's toxic, he's going to lose for them, and they're going to have to move on. I think the poll I showed the documents was a little bit of a no-go for people that they all agree that that's not okay. And you just wonder what else they're going to find. Where else? Yeah. he has clubs and houses wherever he's been. NBC News justice and intelligence correspondent Ken Delaney. And thank you very much. And coming up, what will five more years of President Xi Jinping mean for China and the U.S.? We'll go live to Beijing as the Communist Party leader extends his authoritarian rule over the world's second largest economy.

Plus, NBC's Keir Simmons joins us live from outside 10 Downing Street with the latest on who will be the UK's next prime minister. Boris Johnson's comeback. No. Not going any better than Tom Brady's. Not happening. We'll be right back. Forty five past the hour, tensions flared between North and South Korea overnight,

with both countries accusing one another of breaching maritime borders. According to Seoul's military, South Korea's Navy fired warning shots after a North Korean merchant ship violated the disputed boundary lines. North Korea responded by firing its own round of warning shots. This latest exchange comes amid simmering tensions, with North Korea launching missiles at an unprecedented pace so far this year. Joining us from Beijing, NBC News foreign correspondent Janice Mackey-Frayer. Janice, what can you tell us? Well, this area where it happened overnight is the western boundary area. It's very poorly marked and has long been this hotbed of dispute.

We had this exchange of fire between South Korea and North Korea with each other accusing the other of crossing the northern limit line. This is coming at a very tense time in the region with this barrage of North Korean weapons tests. After the most recent one, North Korean officials had said that they were simulating the use of tactical nuclear weapons to, quote, hit and wipe out targets. Over the past few weeks, both sides have been firing missiles. They've been sending up fighter jets, buzzing the border. There are no lines of communication between the two sides right now. And there are also military drills set to happen this week between South Korea and the U.S., which is always a flashpoint for Pyongyang. And of course, what's looming over everything is this expectation that Kim Jong-un is going to conduct another nuclear test. He hasn't done one since 2017. Satellite imagery has been showing us that he appears to be preparing for one.

Now that the Communist Party Congress here in China is over, there's the expectation he could do that test before midterms in the U.S. So, Janice, the front page of today's Wall Street Journal talks about major developments from Beijing over the weekend with the headline, Xi extends his control over China. That actually seems like a bit of an understatement, Janice. I mean, this is people have talked about how he has more power than any leader since Mao. I'm just curious. We understand it would be a bit of a statement, be a bit of an understatement. I'm confused. I'm sorry. OK, yeah, yeah. Let's let's stop with the V.O. It's a bit of an understatement because there's been a massive consolidation of control.

Again, unlike anything since since Chairman Mao. I'm curious, though, there seemed to be a bit of an orderly process in the past that had gone on from leader to leader. How exactly did she consolidate the power the way he has over the past five, six, seven years? Well, I mean, there was no question that he was going to consolidate control. But when he unveiled the leadership, we saw the extent to which he was able to do it. The top positions are all occupied by Xi loyalists. There's not a successor in sight because all of the members of the standing committee are either too old or too young to possibly take over at the next Congress. So it's likely that Xi Jinping could rule for another decade or perhaps even longer. There are no women

in the Politburo for the first time in a quarter century. But this is a campaign that started 10 years ago where he was purging the party ranks of corruption and also of rivals. He has centralized power in a way not seen since Mao Zedong. He has clipped the wings of technology. He has put companies back in the control of state-owned enterprises. And he's been overseeing the modernization of the military. So it's been this slow consolidation of power that seems to now be complete, which is why that moment on Saturday at the closing session with Hu Jintao, the former leader, was in its own way very symbolic. We were in the room. We were taken in at least a half hour late. And these things are so tightly coordinated. So something was happening in the room before they

let us in that had gone off script. When we got in, you could see that the stage, things were not in order. I mean, these events are so tightly choreographed, even, you know, the way the tea is poured. So with chairs out of place and people standing, there was the sense that something had been going on and we walked in on it. The whole sequence didn't appear in Chinese state media. It's not that they erased Hu Jintao from the coverage. He was seen in shots besides Xi Jinping. But then all of a sudden there was an empty chair. And in its own way, that symbolized that this is now the end of the era of collective leadership that Hu Jintao was a part of. It's the sidelining of the Communist Youth League that he helped oversee with many of his protégés being excluded from this

current leadership and really seemed to mark the end of an era. Seeing Xi Jinping there on the stage with the empty chair beside him, showing that he is now the one man in charge. A really chilling moment. NBC's Janice Mackey-Frayer, thank you so much. Thank you, Janice. We greatly appreciate the reporting and all the things. You know, it's so interesting, all the things, Jonathan O'Meara, that Janice was talking about, the consolidation of power, turning it into almost a complete totalitarian state, the undermining of technology, the trashing of Hong Kong is really the epicenter of global trade when it was a much freer, more market-driven area.

You can talk about what's happening with the Ouijas. All of these things that he seems to be doing actually seems to be taking China back 50, 60, 70 years, which, of course, is a human tragedy for the people of China. But economically, let's just be honest, economically, all of those stupid moves help the United States in being able to compete more on the world globe in the world economy, because who actually wants to follow that model if they want their economy to grow and they want entrepreneurs to be successful?

And China's zero covid policy, which initially was deemed as successful, of course, has now proven to be anything but. And it's prolonged the grip of the pandemic in that nation. That policy received a vote of confidence at this Congress over the weekend. China is not going to be breaking from that. So there is a that will add to its potential economic woes in the years ahead. And you're right. We have seen there is real concern from the U.S. and the West about some of the computer chips and stuff that are manufactured in China. Now, an effort to do that here in the United States or in other countries, Vietnam has benefited from this,

just to name one. And of course, there is the ominous overtones of Xi Jinping's promise to reunify China, which means Taiwan. And that is something that everyone is watching here, that there's a sense that Xi has received the message, watching his pal Putin struggle in Ukraine that may deter him from moving on Taiwan in the immediate future. But it certainly can't be ruled out down the road. And he'll be watching how the Western allies continue to respond to Ukraine as this war goes on for months and maybe years.

All right. Let's move to the race to succeed. UK Prime Minister Liz Truss, the man who appeared to be the favorite on Friday, has dropped out of the competition. as the United Kingdom's prime minister from 2019 until early last month, says he has come to the conclusion that vying for the post would, quote, not be the right thing to do. Let's bring it right out from Downing Street. NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simonson. Keir, of course, he left the race for the most complicated of reasons, starting with the fact he didn't have the votes. So that pretty much clears the field, doesn't it? Yeah, pretty much. I mean, it's just a few months ago, isn't it, Joe, that we stood here

in Downing Street and watched Boris Johnson effectively say, like Arnold Schwarzenegger, I'll be back. Over the weekend, he flew back to the UK. And then last night, unlike Arnold Schwarzenegger, as one British newspaper put it, he bottled it. So yeah, no Boris Johnson. His supporters are still saying at some point he will be back. But right now it does look as if Rishi Sunak, the man who his own party rejected over the summer, may now be accepted by the Conservative Party and walk through that door behind me as the first ever person of colour to walk through that door as Prime Minister. A quite extraordinary story in and of itself, not least because through the summer during that Conservative Party election

campaign, he pretty much predicted the economic turmoil that we have seen that has led to Liz Truss, the current Prime minister, having to leave. Look, I mean, the White House is left just watching this political turmoil here in the UK, this economic turmoil here in the UK. There are some signs in the markets this morning that Rishi Sunak will stabilize things. But then there are very loud calls now for a general election. Remember, this is continues to be a Conservative Party selection, a bit like a primary for a general election. Remember, this continues to be a Conservative Party selection, a bit like a primary without a general election, because, of course, the Conservative Party is the leading party. But when and if it's Rishi Sunak and not Penny Mordaunt,

who right now looks like she might be able to put up a fight through this week for the votes, if it is Rishi Sunak, he will be the third Conservative Party British Prime Minister this year. And there are more and more folks saying you just can't have one party choosing a new leader after new leader to be prime minister. You need a vote for the country. Yeah, and some stability. NBC's Keir Simmons, thank you very much. We appreciate it.