Morning Joe - Morning Joe 10/30/23

Episode Date: October 30, 2023

Israel expands ground invasion in Gaza

The United States has been very focused on a core challenge here, which is that Hamas is using civilians as human shields. They're hiding behind civilians. They're hiding among civilians. They're putting rockets and other terrorist infrastructure in civilian areas. That creates an added burden for the Israeli Defense Forces, but it does not lessen their responsibility to distinguish between terrorists and innocent civilians and to protect the lives of innocent civilians as they conduct this military operation. That's true of striking from the air. It is true of going in on the ground.

And this is something that we talk about with the Israelis on a daily basis. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan on the responsibility of Israeli forces as its troops are moving farther into Gaza this morning, days into its ground operation. We'll get the latest in a live report from the Gaza border, plus what the new speaker of the House is saying about aid packages for Israel and Ukraine and how soon the funding could pass in the lower chamber. Also ahead, there's much more to report on Donald Trump's latest legal issues. He's back under a gag order this morning in his federal elections case, and his oldest children are likely going to testify in his civil fraud trial this week.

We'll talk about what that means and we'll look at the state of the Republican presidential primary now that former vice president Mike Pence is out of the race. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It's Monday, October 30th. You all know it's Halloween tomorrow, right? You're ready. Got your costumes with us. We have the host of Way Too Early, White House Bureau Chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire, former aide to the George W. Bush White House and State Department's Elise Jordan. And President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, is with us. Also with us this morning, U.S. special correspondent for BBC News, Katty Kaye, joins us. And we've got a lot to get to, but we'll begin this morning with Israel expanding its ground invasion in Gaza.

On Saturday, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced Israel is in its second phase of its mission to destroy Hamas. Netanyahu described the assault as Israel's, quote, second war for independence. The operation began overnight Friday with an intense wave of airstrikes and ground raids. At the same time, phone and Internet service was severed, leaving the vast majority of Gaza cut off from each other and from the outside world. Those services spontaneously resumed early on Sunday. Israeli defense forces say they've been targeting Hamas's network of underground tunnels this morning. Israeli officials announced they've killed dozens of terrorists and struck over 600 targets, including weapons depots and staging grounds.

Israel's ground offensive comes amid growing international calls for a ceasefire or a humanitarian pause. The White House says President Biden spoke to Netanyahu about the mission over the weekend. Biden reiterated Israel's right to protect itself, but asked the country to prioritize protecting civilians. Joining us from the Israel-Gaza border for the very latest NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel with more. Richard? Well, there is now ground fighting inside the Gaza Strip, and we've been watching it intensify all weekend. This did not unfold the way some had expected with a blitz of divisions of Israeli troops and tanks going in, many reservists. Instead,

we've seen elite Israeli troops, combat engineers, bulldozers, tanks, armored personnel, dismounted troops walking into Gaza, going in from multiple directions, much of it focused in the area on the northern Gaza Strip, which you can see behind me. There's been fighting ongoing this morning, and there do seem to be clashes. We've seen Israeli troops firing. We've also seen the Israeli troops coming under fire, apparently from Hamas. We are now talking about a phase of street-to-street fighting.

We have also just heard from witnesses that Israeli tanks, according to witnesses that have spoken to our crew, are on the main road, the Salah ad-Din road, which runs from the north to the south of the Gaza Strip. That would make it impossible or at least very difficult for Palestinians to follow Israeli orders to go from the north, to go from the south. Israel has repeated those orders with greater urgency this weekend, dropping leaflets, telling people to immediately leave Gaza City, leave all the areas

in the north to come out with their hands up, to carry white flags if possible, and to head south. But now with these reports of Israeli troops cutting that road, it makes that mission far more complicated, far more dangerous, if not impossible. So let's talk about Biden's plea to slow this down. Humanitarian pause. What about the civilians seeing a lot on social media? You know, not sure what can be corroborated, but it's inevitable that civilians there's going to be a lot of suffering if there isn't a pause, what are you hearing on the ground? So with the power and Internet restored, we are able to talk to our teams directly in Gaza. So we're not relying on social media. We're not relying on statements only from the Israeli army or from Hamas, certainly. There are many civilians who are still in Gaza, many civilians who are in harm's

way, many civilians who are sheltering in hospitals, hospitals that say that they have received orders to evacuate because Israel says that they are Hamas command centers. And the doctors say that they cannot evacuate because they're providing services for hundreds of thousands of people who need them more than ever. There are also many accusations that Hamas is holding people deliberately as human shields. But our crews have not seen any evidence of Hamas roadblocks or any evidence that Hamas is forcibly keeping people inside of buildings. What they have seen are many terrified residents who don't know where to go, who don't believe that moving on the roads is any safer than staying where they are, and don't believe that heading south carries any greater degree of safety than staying put. NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel, thank you very much with the latest. And then there's the hostages.

Despite Israel's ground invasion, it appears hostage negotiations with Hamas are continuing within all this. Sources tell The Wall Street Journal talks are ongoing with Qatar mediating, but are progressing at a slower pace. Israeli officials believe the ground assault will put pressure on Hamas to release the more than 200 people taken hostage. But before the ground invasion began, talks had stalled. A former U.S. official with knowledge of the negotiations tells NBC News discussions broke down on Friday after Hamas demanded Israel allow fuel deliveries into Gaza and refused to release a large number of foreign captives. Only four people have been released so far.

Joining us now from Qatar is NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons. Keir, what can you tell us about the state of the hostages and any hope for their release? Well, Mika, we've been reporting this out with my colleagues, Josh Letterman and Ken Delanian. And what we are told is that there were real hopes overnight Thursday into Friday that these talks might lead to a humanitarian pause. And in fact, John Kirby at the White House said on Friday that the White House was in favour of a humanitarian pause in order to get aid in, he said, and to get people out. But then on Friday morning, those talks stalled. As you mentioned, a former US official with knowledge of the talks telling NBC News that Hamas has been insistent on receiving fuel,

while the Israel and U.S. side, plus other countries, want a large batch of their citizens released and that that wasn't being guaranteed by Hamas. Meanwhile, a diplomat with knowledge of the talks describing to us how talks were going very well on Thursday and negotiators were hopeful for a deal to be reached over the weekend, but then going on to say differences emerged early Friday, which led to those talks stalling. That diplomat, as you mentioned, saying that the talks are ongoing. A Hamas official, and there is a lot of rhetoric now in public,

a Hamas official telling NBC News we won't negotiate while our people are being slaughtered, while Israeli officials saying that if you put pressure on Hamas through this military operation, actually that's the best way to get them to negotiate. And others telling Israeli media, other Israeli officials telling Israeli media that Hamas was simply trying to negotiate and others telling Israeli media, other Israeli officials telling Israeli media that Hamas was simply trying to negotiate in order to delay a ground invasion. There are signs, Mika,

and a lot is being said in public at this point. In fact, Jake Sullivan just yesterday on US TV talking again about a humanitarian pause. A lot is being said in public. There are signs that those negotiations continue. So again, Israeli media reporting that Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has said that one of their considerations, considerations, calculations is whether or not some kind of a deal for Israeli prisoners in exchange for hostages, Hamas prisoners in Israel in exchange for hostages might Hamas prisoners in Israel, in exchange for hostages, might be a possibility. And Hamas yesterday on a telegram site suggesting that that is something that they are demanding. So the trust evaporated on Friday. And many of the aid agencies tell us that in order to get a large scale hostage release,

you really do need a lot of trust and you do need humanitarian pause. And at this stage, clearly, the emphasis is on the military operation by Israel. NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons. Thank you. And of course, the issue with fuel is if they send fuel in, perhaps some possible use it as part of their war machine. So we have the hostages and the plight of civilians in Gaza, all parts of the worries that this could lead to a wider war. Richard, let's first talk about Biden's plea. We'll get to the front page of The New York Times in just a moment, which is just unbelievable in terms of the lack of readiness from the savage attack upon Israel. But he's asking for a pause and looking for the Israelis to have a long-term strategy here.

And you're writing in the Financial Times that Israel needs to distinguish between Hamas and the people of Gaza. That is ultimately the way there is a long-term strategy, is it not? And tell us how they would do that. Look, the administration from the get-go, Mika, has been giving Israel support, some would say unconditional support, about the right of self-defense. It's true, yeah. What you've had, though, is some friendly warnings. You have to be careful about the safety of civilians, keep open the two-state solution.

But it's all been friendly advice. And the question is, is Israel heeding it? And I would say a lot of the evidence is not so much. There's obviously a real tension between the nature of this Israeli military operation and civilian casualties. And so what the Israelis are doing is understandable, yes. But is it smart? Is it necessary? Is it consistent with U.S. interests? Not so much. And I think what's happening,

and I think it's inevitable, is you're going to see the growth of differences between the Biden administration and what Bibi Netanyahu is doing. Because Bibi Netanyahu, the speculation is, wants to do something extraordinarily big and dramatic, i.e. destroy Hamas, eliminate Hamas. There's a lot of people, I'll admit I'm one of them, who don't think that's doable. Not that it isn't desirable, but they don't think it's doable. They think that the nature of the target doesn't lend itself to that. They think that in the process, you're going to see thousands and thousands of civilians killed. And they think Israel has other options. For example, I know we're going to see thousands and thousands of civilians killed. And they think Israel has other options.

For example, I know we're going to get to this in a minute. Why not do much more on strengthening defenses? October 7th never should have happened. It should have never. I mean, this is just incredible. You read this article on the front page of The New York Times, and it's just stunning how completely flat footed the Israelis were on this. And in a country that I think we lauded around the world, especially after 9-11, as an example of hard security.

Oh, this is an intelligence failure not to collect data. It was an intelligence failure to analyze it incorrectly. And then it was a defense failure to allow the state of readiness on the Gaza border to be so low. How is that possible? Yeah, John. Yeah, President Biden did speak to Prime Minister Netanyahu over the weekend, the first time they've spoken since the ground operation began. Reports this morning, Israeli tanks on the edge of Gaza City, including cutting off access

to a road that they had urged the Gazan civilians to use to evacuate. So at least it's not clear yet whether they're about to go in and this is the full invasion into Gaza City or whether perhaps it's an effort to encircle the city to have more of a siege mentality. But, you know, U.S. military, I know you're part of the Bush administration, knows a thing or two about urban combat. What could this, what are these next few days going to look like? Spell out both options for us, a siege versus invasion. Well, it seems to me that siege is happening already and that it's impossible for most civilians to get out. So this situation isn't really, I can't think of a good analogy with the last 20 years necessarily,

because the freedom of movement is so constricted and they can't get out and they're told to flee and they can't. There was at least some freedom of movement, say, in Fallujah, you know, different urban warfare scenarios that we've had over the past, you know, 20 years. But you look at how now we're on such war footing and moving so many assets over to the region. What do you make of that, Richard, that we're getting to a state of readiness that we haven't seen since ISIS was defeated? When you're beginning to see attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq, people forget we still have thousands of forces on the ground in these countries, essentially doing counterterrorism missions in Syria, supporting

the Iraqi forces. They are trying to push back against Iranian influence. So we are vulnerable to war widening. And Iran is the central threat in all of this, by the way, Hamas, potentially Hezbollah, and so forth. And Iran has a lot of, a lot of assets. I just want to push back against one thing you said, Jonathan. Israel has other options. Yes, there's the idea of siege. Yes, there's the idea of ground invasion. They can also do things that are much more discreet. They're beginning to let their special forces in, much more pinpointed type attacks. They can build up their defenses against Gaza on the Israeli side of the border. They could even create a zone in Gaza, as some Israelis are talking about, for a mile or two.

But the idea that Israel has to go in big on the ground and from the air, I would say, no, that's an option. Yes, they have a right, even one would say the necessity of responding to October 7th, but how they respond, that enters into the range of choice. And they've got a big menu of options. And I would simply say at the moment, they're going in extremely big. And there's a lot of observers in Israel and here who worry about the success of it. And then imagine we're wrong and Israel does succeed. What happens the day after? Who do you hand over political authority? That's the question. Imagine you were successful against Hamas. What then? I have yet to hear an answer for anyone in the Israeli government.

Arab nations. Is it other? Where's the rest of the world on this? Katty K. I mean, for Richard, I think I think he's actually talking about the missing link here. And that's differentiating between Hamas and the people of Gaza in a very clear and full throated way.. But can Israel do it alone with just the U.S. standing by its side unequivocally with no contingencies? And where's everybody else? It's a great point in this particular moment, Mika, because you've had a series of things happen over the last couple of days that do suggest that there is a growing isolation of Israel and potentially of the U.S. and its relationship with Israel. On Friday at the United Nations, there was a Security Council resolution that put just 14 countries in favor of a ceasefire and in favor of not having a ceasefire.

And then you see the International Criminal Court going to the region and saying that Israel may be in violation of international law if it doesn't allow aid into Gaza. Those signals are being read in the Middle East. And the question is, you know, the degree to which the U.S. can afford to isolate itself from all of its other Middle Eastern allies in order to stand solidly by Israel. It's a complicated moment of balancing different power struggles. And who takes over Gaza afterwards? I think it's been made pretty clear that the chances, which perhaps has been floated, that there could be some consortium of Arab countries, I don't think there's any sign that those Arab countries want to be running Gaza.

So the U.S. has to stand by Israel, but it can't stand by Israel and isolate itself from all of its other potential allies in the region as well. Which is why I think you heard over the weekend Jake Sullivan pushing Israel to respect humanitarian rights to protect, to try and protect civilians in Gaza. All right. We'll be back in 60 seconds with all the other news that we have to cover as well. And we will revisit this big developments on the Donald Trump legal front. A judge reinstated a gag order in his federal elections case. This as the former president's children are set to testify in his fraud trial this week. Plus, what former Attorney General Bill Barr said about the dangers of a

second Trump term. We're back in just one minute. He's already saying it's going to be about retribution. And, you know, he's a very petty man and it's all about him. And he's a very has a very fragile ego. And, you know, something happened to him as a kid. And I'm not going to spend time psychoanalyzing it, but every encounter he has to come out showing the other guy that he's better. It's all about the assertion of his ego, and I think he will be self-indulgent in a new administration

and won't be as effective as he could otherwise be. And probably things would start moving toward chaos. There's a lot there. Former U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr continues to warn about what a second presidency for Donald Trump could mean for America. Trump responded by attacking his former attorney general on social media, just as the attorney general was describing his behavior. He then started carrying out that behavior. Some wonder whether that rant would be considered a violation of the newly reinstated gag order in the federal election interference case brought by special counsel Jack Smith. U.S. District Judge Tanya Chutkan lifted a temporary hold yesterday. The order was originally placed earlier this month at the request of prosecutors,

but was paused after opposition from the Trump team. The former president reacted to the news on his Truth Social page, writing in part, quote, it illegally and unconstitutionally takes away from my First Amendment right of free speech in the middle of my campaign for president. He has promised to appeal the ruling. I think it's important to note out that he could be campaigning, but he's been choosing to be in New York City at his civil fraud trial. He doesn't have to be there. But I think, personally, my analysis is that has to do with his money and his money being taken away from him. And he just can't stand not being there. But he keeps putting his foot in his mouth there.

He does have to be there a week from today. He's been called to be a witness. Well, he has to testify. But his adult children are going to be there between now and then. But to this point, you're right. And his campaign has been pretty clear about this. They view this as it's two things at once. One, to your point, that yes, this is hitting Trump close to home. It's about his money. He wants to be there, defend the honor of his business, all that. He knows that he is, well, not going to be nearly as wealthy of a man at the end of this. But secondly, the campaign views this as a bit of an opportunity because this is his campaign right now,

is he's fighting against persecution. But he's pretending he has to be there. He doesn't have to be there. He doesn't have to be there. But Donald Trump pretends slash lies about everything. So this is the latest part of that, is that he's suggesting he's a victim. He's being made to be there, even though he doesn't have to be. It's all part of he's connected to his followers. He's connected this trial with all the others saying, look, they're all out to get me. Look at all the fronts. And there is a thought that if he's in the courtroom now for a civil

case, it will desensitize the public and make voters less shocked when he actually has to appear in court next year in a federal case. OK, I just think he's obsessed with his money. Honestly, I just knowing the man and knowing his sort of unbelievable obsessions, its money, its power, its press press, it's headlines. But this is attacking his money. I mean, he could be anywhere. By the way, he sort of was campaigning this weekend, but his head was still obviously somewhere else

because he went to Iowa, but kept getting the name of the town wrong. Joining us now, let's see what George Conway thinks about this. Attorney and contributing columnist at the Washington Post, George Conway. Am I wrong in my analysis that he's showing up at this civil fraud trial a lot because this one gets him where it really hurts? Yes, I fundamentally agree with that. I think it's even more, in a way, it's even more fundamental. This puts him out of business. This case is putting him out of business.

Yeah, absolutely. And that's his essence. And I think that he's just he's terrified that, you know, he's not going to have the Trump Tower. And he's not going to have all the things that he has bragged about for decades, for his 60, you know, for six decades. It's going to be gone. And he won't be able to run a business. And the question is, how much money is he going to be allowed to keep from that? And that to him is, that's striking at the core of Donald Trump. So I'm just, I have a random question. When you're fined $10,000 by a judge,

do you have to actually give that money the next day? Do you have time? Can you put it in a credit card? How does that work? Well, I think I think I saw some correspondence in the in the in the news media that was reported that Alina Habba's firm actually wrote the check on behalf of Trump and submitted it to the client protection fund or whatever the order required in New York. So he has paid that. I mean, obviously, it's just at this point, it's just symbolic and trivial to Donald Trump at this point. But the fact is that after a while, you know, if he keeps gauging in this conduct, attacking Judge Justice Engeron and his law clerk, he could actually be, you know, sent to the tombs or somewhere with the main, you know, the main jail in New York City.

But we'll see how that goes. I'm not sure. How would you put a former president in lockup in New York City with Secret Service? I mean, I would. The reason I ask about the money is because I'm not sure how possible that is. And so maybe they could put him under, tell him to stay home or something. But the bigger question is, could those fines get bigger and bigger and bigger as he misbehaves? Yes, the fines can get bigger and bigger as he misbehaves. I mean, one method that has been used by courts in the past to enforce criminal contempt sanctions or civil contempt sanctions is to keep increasing the fines geometrically, you know, 1,000, 10,000, 100,000. And Justice Engeron could keep ramping those figures up. He certainly has a record to do that, having basically had Trump violate the order multiple times right under the judge's those in the courthouse.

Right. OK, so this week, several members of the Trump family will be taking the stand in the two hundred and fifty million dollar civil fraud trial against the former president and his company. The New York state attorney general's office announced on Friday they plan on calling Trump's oldest children to the stand on separate days this week. Donald Trump Jr. will testify this Wednesday, followed by Eric Trump on Thursday and Ivanka Trump on Friday. The former president himself is expected to be called next Monday. Prosecutors say they expect Trump will be their final witness. Meanwhile, Trump has not let up on his attacks against the judge in the case. On his truth social page, Trump called Judge N'Goran crazy and corrupt. Trump has already been fined twice for breaking a gag order for speaking against the court staff. There is no

protection against speaking against the judge or prosecutors. Just George, a couple of I mean, there's so many questions here, but procedurally, first of all, can they not show up for some reason, the family members? And if they do, can they plead the fifth and not answer questions or do they have to show up and do they have to answer questions? They have to show up, but they can take the Fifth Amendment. They are under subpoena. They're being called as, in trial terminology, they're being called as hostile witnesses, witnesses who are not cooperating with the plaintiff, the plaintiff here being the state of New York. And they have to show up because they'll be under court order to show up and they can

be held in contempt and sent to jail if they violate that order. But they can take the Fifth. And that's going to be the interesting question to me. I mean, how do they handle this? Eric Trump, according to the prior papers filed in the case, pleaded the Fifth Amendment over 500 times at his civil deposition in one day. In this case, Donald Trump Sr. Well, I well, it's the fact of the matter is because it's a civil case, the invocation of the Fifth Amendment can be used to draw a negative inference to the against the defendant, a court, a trial or a fact, whether it be a judge or jury can conclude he's not answering that question. It must be because he committed fraud or he's, he lied previously, or he did something bad. You can't do that. You can't make that,

right. You can't, you can't make that inference in a criminal case, but that's one of the reasons why this case is so dangerous to Trump is that the assertions of fifth amendment and Donald Trump himself asserted the fifth amendment over 440 times at his deposition in this case, that can be used against the defendant to allow the trier of fact, the judge here, to infer that this was a giant fraudulent enterprise, which he essentially has already concluded on the summary judgment based on the papers, which included those assertions. Right. This is a case, Elise, that in some ways part of it is already over.

The judge has made his decision. Well, that's what I wonder about, because we all have so much fatigue with Donald Trump committing, doing something that if anyone else did it, just like way talks about judges violating gag orders, they would be in a huge heap of trouble. And yet Donald Trump doesn't get in trouble. And so, George, that's what I would ask you. What if, say, Donald Trump doesn't really get punished in this trial? What does he have down the pipeline? Do you think that this current predicament is his most risky, risky trial? Or do you think that, say, going forward, classified documents, any of the plethora of legal issues that he has?

What how do you see the legal landscape unfolding? Well, I think the other cases are much more dangerous in the sense that this case just takes away his money. He'll always have something. He's not going to be penniless. He may have to liquidate his properties because he can no longer operate them and do business in the state of New York or as a New York corporation elsewhere. But the other cases, he can spend he'll end up spending and I believe he will the rest of his life in prison as a result of the classified documents case. And as a result of the January 6th case together, I think there'll be you know, I think he's going to be found guilty in both cases. And I think that even if he's found guilty of just a few counts in the Florida case, the documents case, that could that could, you know, he could get into he could be sent to jail for 10 or 15 years.

And the man, 70, 78 years old, almost totally agree that those are serious and they have consequences for for for this nation in the world, really. But I want to stay focused on the civil trial in New York because it seems, George Conway, although I could be wrong, you let me know, it seems like it's moving right along. Like they've got a schedule and after the kids testify and Trump testify, they're wrapping it up. While these other cases, it's, you know,

Trump delay, delay, delay, delay, delay every step of the way if they can with tons of different interruptions. This one seems to be moving quickly. And again, the judge has already decided, right, that he's liable. Is that the way the word to be, how expensive it's going to be for Donald Trump, which makes his rudeness in the court and his truth social posts just beyond stupid because all of that impacts how the judge feels about this case. What do you think the timeline on this could be? And if he is given a large penalty, does he have to pay it immediately like these smaller ones? Well, I mean, one of the things, well, what he could do is he can ask for a stay of the judgment. He got a stay of the part of the judgment that has been issued already with respect to the

cancellation of his right to do business in the state of New York. And what you can do if you are a defendant and you've been hit by a big judgment in a civil case in a lower court is you can post a large bond, a bond equivalent to whatever the damages are or whatever here the restitution is or whatever they're going to call it, you can post a bond and that would suspend the collection of the judgment pending the appeal. But the fact is that it's still going to be very, it's still going to be devastating to him because no one right now, who's going to lend, who's going to lend him money? Who's going to do business with him? A man who's basically subject to this uncertainty. He's you know, and just the

embarrassment of the judgment. And, you know, he's going to end up having to sell properties to to to to to to address this judgment. And he's not going to like that. George Conway, thank you. Yeah, that's I think we can agree on that. Thank you very much. And coming up, brand new NBC News polling in Iowa shows a tight race for second place among the Republicans 2024 hopefuls who voters are now eyeing out of the crowded field. This has former Vice President Mike Pence ends his bid for the White House. We'll discuss his decision and whether his campaign was dead on arrival. Plus, Senator Chris Coons will be our guest this morning. We'll ask him what he witnessed on his recent trip to Israel.

Morning Joe will be right back. His verbal skills are limited. And so he's, you know, if you get him away from very, very, very, you know, the adjectives sort of, they're unfamiliar to him. And they sort of spill out and he goes too far. You know, he's not very disciplined when it comes to what he says. Quote, his verbal skills are limited.

Donald Trump's former Attorney General Bill Barr. What he says about his former boss right there and right on cue. Just days after mixing up the leaders of Hungary and Turkey, Trump yesterday incorrectly said Hungary shares a border with Russia. And then here's what he said last week, followed by his comments yesterday. Viktor Orban, did anyone ever hear of him? He's probably like one of the strongest leaders anywhere in the world. And he he's the leader of right. He's the leader of Turkey.

We are very close to World War Three and we will prevent it. I know all the players. I know the players. I know the good ones, the bad ones, the weak ones. You know, there's a very powerful player, Viktor Orban. Did anybody ever hear of Viktor Orban? He's the head of Hungary. Hungary fronts on both Ukraine and Russia. Oh, my God. The conversation about Viktor Orban, what worries me besides that he gets the things wrong, that that is his model for American illiberal democracy. That if he were to come back, that is the person he would fashion himself after.

And that ought to give people pause. And a lot of people in the audience. No pause. No pause. Trump also had some problems with U.S. geography as well. During that same speech, he appeared to forget which state he was in, saying he was in Sioux Falls, which is located in South Dakota. Well, he was actually speaking from Sioux Falls, which is located in South Dakota, while he was actually speaking from Sioux City, Iowa. Well, thank you very much and a very big hello to a place where we've done very well. Sioux Falls. Thank you very much, Sioux Falls.

So, Sioux City, let me ask you, how many people come? How many people come from Sioux City? I mean, Katty K, we've come to accept this from Donald Trump. He has a sort of a really, really flip relationship with the truth and facts. And I'm just speaking a fact. I'm not trying to be I'll be accused of being nasty, but that's just the truth. If this was Joe Biden, what networks would be on a loop right now playing it and then talking about perhaps having a doctor on about his mental acuity. But there is such a disconnect in reality here in terms of the two front runners for president. Look, so we have two candidates running for president who are likely to be the nominees of both the parties who are older than most Americans are comfortable with.

Joe Biden gets an awful lot of attention for his age and a lot of scrutiny, and it's clearly damaging him in the polls, which is why he now has a primary challenger, which he probably wouldn't do if it weren't for the age question. And it's a real concern. Donald Trump over the last month or so has shown that he, too, is a man who is nearing 80. And maybe that is his age that is coming into play. At the moment, it doesn't seem to be impacting him with his supporters, but age has a way of, you know, we've seen this, Mika, you and me,

with our parents, right, that it catches up on them. And let's see how the stress of a campaign, the stress of multiple very intense legal suits against him, affects his health and his mental acuity and his stamina over the course of the next year. I think just because it's not having an impact on him in the polls at the moment doesn't mean that it won't do in a year. We'll be a year out, a year more of trials and a year more, frankly, of age. And at that age, that makes a difference. Except Jonathan Lemire, he has a following that accepts anything. I mean, if he has even said if I did something like commit murder on Fifth Avenue, they'd still love me.

Let's believe him at this point, given what we've seen. Oh, his misstatements are not going to cost him any votes among his among his base. The issue is, does this become an issue next year in a general election election? Fifty three weeks from now, why would it change for those independent, not for his supporters, but for those independent swing voters are going to decide elections, you know, who look at this and yes, to Katty's point, who look at two men who are both 77 and above. And yes, polls suggest that the age doesn't seem to hurt Trump as much as it hurts Biden, but maybe next year that does change because we have seen the number of his erratic statements, erratic behavior, his mistakes.

Trump, that is, has really picked up in recent weeks. I think those close to him suggested is the pressure of all these trials. And I'll note the Biden campaign has been has pounced on this. They blasted that clip out of him mixing up the Sioux City, Sioux Falls thing out immediately on Twitter X yesterday. They're going to try to say, look, this is not a guy you want to have at the helm during a time of international crisis. Yeah, I don't think he intellectually connects with the gravity of most of the legal challenges he's facing, except for the New York City trial. That one's driving, in my opinion, that's that one's driving him crazy. Meanwhile, in a new survey out this morning from NBC News, the Des Moines Register and Mediacom, Trump is at 47 percent of support among likely Iowa GOP caucus goers tied for second place. Twenty seven points behind Trump are Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley at 16 percent each.

Fifty four percent of these caucus goers say they could still be persuaded to vote for another candidate. Forty one percent say their minds are made up. As for how Trump's legal problems could impact a potential general election matchup with President Joe Biden, 65 percent believe he could beat Biden no matter what. Thirty two percent say Trump's legal challenges will make it nearly impossible for him to beat the sitting president next November. Joining us now, founder of the conservative Web site, the bulwark, Charlie Sykes. Charlie, what do you make of these poll results? Well, I think that they just reinforce the fact that, number one, that Donald Trump remains the apex predator of the Republican Party. It also reinforces the fact

that if anyone has any momentum in the Republican primary, it is it's Nikki Haley. And the question is going to be whether or not she's going to be able to capitalize that and whether or not the field is going to continue to consolidate as long as it is a crowded field. Donald Trump is on a glide path to renomination. Yeah. And Charlie, Iowa has never been one of Trump's strongest states. And yet he's the polling suggests he's up huge there. Let's just talk about the other thing that happened this weekend beyond this poll that suggests this is Donald Trump's party. And that is the quiet exit of Mike Pence from the race. You know, Mike Pence, who served so loyally to Trump up until January 6th,

broke with him on January 6th, you know, and to Pence's credit, has defended that ever since. His whole campaign campaign in some ways was an explanation of why he felt that was the right thing to do. But Trump's voters and therefore most Republicans simply never forgave him. No, the reason that that Mike Pence got no traction is because of January 6th. Look, this is worth spending just a moment on. The reason that Tom Emmer is not the speaker and that Mike Pence is out of the race for president is for one reason. They refuse to accept the big lie. They refuse to go along with the attempt to overthrow the election.

This has become the litmus test in the Republican Party. You think about Mike Pence. Mike Pence represents really what the Republican Party was essentially in 2015 before Donald Trump came down that golden escalator. disqualifying or ended his campaign. What destroyed his campaign was his unwillingness to go along with Donald Trump's attempted coup. And that became the unforgivable sin. And I think that we, you know, we get kind of get numb to all of this. But to think about the way the Republican Party has decided that it is not only going to rally around Trump, but that it is going to punish and that is going to exile anyone that challenge the worst, the worst aspects of of Trump's efforts to to destroy constitutional democracy. I want to digress for a second and go to Richard Haass, and then you can take it back to Charlie. But and by the way, I let's put the graphic up. He's at 43 percent. I think I said 47. Just he's still 27 points ahead. So Donald Trump's doing quite well in this poll here.

Forty three percent. Richard, it seems like Trump supporters and these Republicans who do have the power to speak out against Donald Trump, whether they're in Congress, whether it's the new speaker of the House who is an election denier. I mean, we could go down the list. There's so many people who have the platform but won't take the opportunity to take out someone who is a clear and present danger to our political system. And I'm just wondering, as you're listening to this conversation and looking at these poll numbers, I mean, the world is on fire, one would argue. Joe Biden just went into a second extremely difficult hot war zone and dealt with world leaders, sat in on a war cabinet meeting in Israel, is able to navigate relationships that he has developed over decades, knowledge and wisdom that he has developed over decades of mistakes and victories on the world

stage. And yet it's going to be close between these two guys. I mean, what's going through your mind when you think about all the possibilities right now geopolitically? It's not so much what's going through my mind. It's what's going through the mind of the rest of the world. They look at us and they can't believe it. They don't recognize us. And if you're an American ally, that depends on us, this is downright unnerving. I don't think Americans understand how precious that is, how we are looked at and revered. It's critical to what stability there has been in the world. It's obviously critical to our influence.

I actually think we've gone from America first under Donald Trump to alliance first under Joe Biden. This is a partnership based foreign policy. If Donald Trump were to come back, suddenly these partnerships would all be placed at risk. I actually think we're looking at a world that's far more violent. Conceivably, a lot of countries would revisit their possession of nuclear weapons. They would say we can no longer depend that the United States would have our back. We now have to become self-sufficient. So I actually think this is a, you know, I know most Americans will go to the polls a

year from now. Jonathan's pointed out we're 52, 53 weeks away. Yeah. Boist on domestic issues, personality, what have you. But the international, the foreign policy implications of this election are arguably going to be greater than any election in modern history. I don't disagree. Charlie, to make his point, it's not just that things are close. Donald Trump could win. And we are kidding ourselves if we think otherwise. Donald Trump could win. It's certainly going to be razor thin margin next year. So talk, as you mentioned,

the new speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, and he has certainly aligned himself. He was a leading election denier. Matt Gates was doing a victory lap last week saying, hey, we kicked out Kevin McCarthy. We got a more MAGA speaker in there now. He's right. He's not right about much. He's right about that. So let's talk about what this is going to mean and how a Speaker Johnson could help shape Washington and 2024 politics next year? Well, what I continue to be struck by is the fact that every single Republican voted for Mike Johnson. So much for the normies, so much for the moderates who are going to exercise some spine. When it came down to it, not a single Republican in the House said they were going to vote against somebody

who had played a central role in the attempt to overturn the election. So that's an indication of what the House is going to be like in the Republican Party for the next year. So while the world is burning and Donald Trump is cozying up to authoritarians around the world, and by the way, I think that that's an underappreciated fact that he's continuing to suck up to Victor Orban, that while he's doing this, this this House is very likely going to impeach Joe Biden, do everything possible to cut off aid to Ukraine, while Donald Trump is suggesting that he, in fact, might abandon our NATO allies. So the stakes continue to rise. I don't think that Richard is overstating it in any way whatsoever. And so I do think that there's a

certain amount of denialism going on in both Republican and Democratic ranks about the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the White House and what that would mean. Now, I'm not suggesting that everybody should panic, but they ought to be deeply alarmed at this prospect. You've had a lot of Republicans who have said, well, Donald Trump can't possibly win this nomination, so I'm not going to say that I'm not going to support him in the general election. And I think you have a lot of Democrats who have been thinking, well, you know, we hope that we're going to run against Donald Trump because he's the easiest candidate to beat. I'm not sure that either one of those is aging particularly well. But, Jonathan, you're absolutely right. All of the implications ought to be on the table. And in terms of foreign affairs, I don't know that we've had a more radical choice.

You know, I I'm trying to think of what the analogy would be. We've never had a president who would suggest that he might abandon our NATO allies. We've never had a president, the United States, who has made it clear that he admires the most thuggish, thuggish authoritarian leaders around the world. And yes, you know, he is clearly showing a little bit of confusion about Sioux City versus Sioux Falls. But the point and where Hungary is on a map, but the fact that he so deeply admires the world's dictators, the people who, in fact, have been dismantling democracy in their own countries, ought to be deeply, deeply alarming to Americans of both political parties. I think that Charlie nails what we really need to be paying attention to the extremism

of the Republican Party, but also what we saw with this speaker vote, how you have moderates who they vote against Jim Jordan. They get death threats. And this is sanctioned and promoted by other Republicans in their caucus. When we have this level of extremism within a political party where you are so threatened if you slightly deviate. And that's something that Mitt Romney said, too, in his somewhat of an exit interview with McKay Copens in his new Romney book, just that the threat of violence against elected representatives who choose to go against Donald Trump is so extreme that it completely stifles the debate. This idea that if the candidates drop out,

there'd be a consolidation among an anti-Trump candidate. That same poll in Iowa suggests that those who list DeSantis as their first choice, if DeSantis were to drop out, their second choice is overwhelmingly Trump. They wouldn't break towards Haley. They would break towards Trump. So it's not clear that if one of these major candidates were to drop out, that Trump would get any weaker. He probably would only get stronger. OK, we've got a founder of the conservative website, The Bulwark, Charlie Sykes. Thank you so much for being on this morning. We have a lot of other news to cover this morning, including the death, sudden death of Matthew Perry over the weekend.

So sad. He was 54 years old. We'll talk about what happened and also the incredible outpouring ever since that news broke over the weekend. You guys, check it out, check it out. Guess what job we just got? I don't know, but Donald Trump wants his blue blazer black. What? Blue blazer back. He wants it back.

You said black. Why would he want his blue blazer black? Well, you know what I meant. No, you messed it up. You're stupid. And as you may have heard, the really sad news over the weekend, actor Matthew Perry, best known for his role as sarcastic but lovable Chandler Bing on the hit show Friends, died at just 54 years old.

NBC News correspondent Chloe Malas reports on Perry's passing. New details surrounding the death of beloved actor Matthew Perry. The star found unresponsive in a jacuzzi at his Los Angeles home Saturday from an apparent drowning, according to the LAPD. NBC News learning that authorities received a 911 call just after 4 p.m. on Saturday about a water emergency at a California residence. Law enforcement sources telling NBC News there was no apparent foul play pending a further investigation. The 54-year-old posting this photo in the water just days ago. Perry's family telling people, Matthew brought so much joy to the world, both as an actor and a friend. Perry, born in Williamstown, Massachusetts, was raised in Canada

before moving to Los Angeles as a teen. It was there he discovered his love of comedy, joining an improv group. At the age of 24, he would land the gig of a lifetime as Chandler Bing on the hit NBC sitcom Friends. He would star in the show for all 10 seasons. I left the message. I have some pride. Do you? No. And later in a string of hit films like The Whole Nine Yards, Fools Rush In, and the romantic comedy 17 Again.

You have really great hair. Oh, thanks. I grow it myself. Despite his ability to light up a screen, off screen, there was darkness. Perry opening up about his decades-long battle with drugs and alcohol in his 2022 memoir. The actor said he went to rehab 15 times and detoxed 65 times. But I would sometimes say a line and they wouldn't laugh and I would sweat and just like go into convulsions. If I didn't get the laugh I was supposed to get. An outpouring of support from California to New York at the famous friend's building exterior used in the show. His on-screen mother, Morgan Fairchild, writing,

The loss of such a brilliant young actor is a shock. The friend's Instagram account calling Perry a true gift. Our heart goes out to his family, loved ones, and all of his fans.