Morning Joe - Morning Joe 10/9/23

Episode Date: October 9, 2023

The Morning Joe panel discusses the latest details in Hamas' attack on Israel

This is an attack that I don't think anyone saw coming in the immediate. So was it an intelligence failure, Mr. Secretary? Do you acknowledge it was an intelligence failure? We will have plenty of time to, the Israelis will have plenty of time to look into that. All of us will have time to look into that. The focus now has to be on making sure that Israel has what it needs to deal with this attack and to make sure that its citizens are safe and secure. That's U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Meet the Press, sidestepping questions about intelligence failures leading up to this weekend's deadly attacks in Israel. We'll get the very

latest on the escalating conflict with a live report from near the Gaza border in just a moment. Meanwhile, some Republican presidential candidates are already spreading misinformation about the attack, blaming a deal between the Biden administration and Iran. Plus, we'll bring you a look at how the chaos in the House, with Republicans scrambling to find a new speaker, could impact military and security assistance for Israel. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. I'm Jonathan Lemire, alongside U.S. Special Correspondent for BBC News, Katty Kay. We're in for Joe, Mika and Willie on this holiday Monday. And with us on this busy Monday, we have President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, and columnist and associate editor for The

Washington Post, David Ignatius. Cady, an extraordinary weekend, a tragic weekend. Now we deal with the unfolding story on this Monday morning. Yeah, so lucky we have Richard and David with us this morning, John, to get us through all of this. We have tons of questions for everybody. We're also going to be going to the region and speak to Rich Dengel as well. But let's just have a quick catch up of where we are, because we begin this morning with the Israel-Hamas war. The combined death toll at the moment has topped 1,200,

and that number is expected to rise. The war began early on Saturday morning. In an unprecedented surprise attack, Hamas militants stormed the blockaded Gaza Strip, entering about 20 different Israeli towns and communities. The chaos stretched across land, air, and sea as thousands of rockets were fired into Israel. Militants were seen bulldozing through barricades between Gaza and Israel.

One of the first targets was a music festival, held in the desert just three miles from the border. More than 200 bodies have been recovered from that event alone. Other towns were then engulfed in smoke, flames and gunfire as militants went door to door attacking civilians. Officials say this was the deadliest assault Israel has seen in decades. And it came nearly 50 years to the day since Israel was caught off guard by invading forces from Egypt and Syria. On Saturday night, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially declared war,

saying Israel's military will use all of its strengths to destroy Hamas's capabilities. This morning, Israeli officials announced they have regained control of communities along the Gaza border, but officials stress the situation is fluid as clashes with the militants are ongoing. As of now, at least 700 people have been killed in Israel and about 2,100 are wounded, according to the Israeli Defense Forces. Palestinian authorities, meanwhile, say more than 400 people have been killed there in the counterattack and more than 2,000 have been injured. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer confirmed last night that at least four Americans are among the dead, adding that that toll is expected to rise. Israel also believes that some Americans are being held hostage. A senior Hamas official says the militant group is holding more than 100 people captive in Gaza.

Among them are women, children, soldiers and other civilians. Joining us now from the Gaza border, NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel. Richard, thank you so much for joining us. All day, Israelis have been looking at images of people who have been killed and of people who have been held hostage very close to where you are inside Gaza. What's the latest situation there? So we are just outside the town of Zderot. It is an Israeli community here, not far from the Gaza border. And there is an active fighting going on right now. If we listen here, you might be able to hear some explosions in the background. Hamas militants are firing right now rockets from Gaza at Sderot.

We've seen some of them impact in the sky above us just a few moments ago, as the Israeli Iron Dome system is knocking them down. Some of the rockets have, however, landed in Sderot, Ashkelon and Ashdod, and we are told that there are casualties. So the Israelis are bombing Gaza. As you said earlier, there are hundreds of Palestinians killed so far. That number, according to Palestinian health officials, is now around 500 in these reprisal operations since the Saturday assault,

which was unprecedented here. We've seen rockets many times fired from Gaza, but we haven't seen hundreds of Hamas militants escaping from the Gaza Strip and going on a killing rampage inside Israel, a killing rampage that for now, Israel says, has more or less stopped. It believes that there are no active gunfights going on right now. So there are no places where Hamas is still in control. That wasn't the case just yesterday. But the Israelis do not know if there are other Hamas militants still on the loose. They just say that this mop-up operation here in southern Israel

is nearing a conclusion that there are no active gunfights right now, but they are still hunting for potential Hamas militants. There is, of course, that ongoing hostage situation. That is a major complicating factor here, because in the past, when there have been conflicts between Israel and Hamas, Israel moves in quickly, launches devastating attacks against Hamas infrastructure in Gaza. But it is finding that very difficult this time because there are dozens of hostages, perhaps 100, perhaps more inside Gaza. And Israeli officials expect that they're being used as human shields. As you mentioned, Israel is mobilizing for war.

The army said just a short while ago that it has called up 300,000 reservists. It could be it is trying to secure the country, or it could be that it is preparing for another phase of this conflict, potentially a ground assault into the Gaza Strip, which would be very risky for the hostages, very costly for the Palestinians, and likely very costly for the Israelis as well. So, Richard, as you were speaking, we were seeing some images of those very risky for the hostages, very costly for the Palestinians, and likely very costly for the Israelis as well. So, Richard, as you were speaking, we were seeing some images of those young music festival goers fleeing for their safety. We know that more than 200 killed there. Just horrifying images. You mentioned, of course, the complications presented by the hostages being

held there by Hamas. We know from Senate Majority Leader Schumer that at least four Americans have died. Do you have a sense there from the ground, are there any Americans currently being held hostage? The breakup or the makeup of the hostages is, for now, a closely held secret. The number of the hostages, who they are, has not been released. The Israeli media are talking about 100, but really they're keeping it more generic, talking about dozens. But it would not be surprising. Israel and the United States are very close. There are many dual nationals here. I've been speaking to dual nationals this morning who lived in in the road.

So it's very possible. But I don't have that confirmed right now. All right. We greatly appreciate your reporting. Stay safe there. We'll be checking with you later during the day. NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel. Thank you again. Joining us now, international spokesperson for Israel's defense forces, Lieutenant Colonel Richard Heck. Lieutenant Colonel, thanks so much for being with us this morning. Please give us the latest, if you will, in the ongoing mission there in southern Israel. So Richard, your reporter on the ground actually told the story probably much better than I. It means that we're doing probably a good job in trying to say or talk about the level of this event which is an epic event as mentioned and he did it very well

more or less on spot we are now stabilizing the communities they're still small pockets and we've managed to gain control it took us longer than we thought, back in the communities around the Gaza Strip, the gore and the carnage and the inhumane activity in Hamas in these settlements is starting to unfold because we're now speaking to the families, understanding they went through tragic, tragic events, tragic, tragic events. But we are managing to stabilize that. We are now focusing on organizing the area. We have deployed four divisions down to Gaza, and we're trying to organize the area to stabilize the Gaza Strip

and their communities where, by the end of the day, we should be able to evacuate most of our communities and whoever is left away from the Gaza so they can recuperate nearer to the center of the country. And sir, the Israeli defense minister a short time ago ordered what he deemed a complete siege on Gaza, saying authorities would cut electricity and block the entry of food and fuel to that area. Tell us what exactly that means and how long could something like that be put in place? What's the end game? So the end game at this stage from the military perspective, I don't want to, I'm not a spokesperson for our minister of defense,

but from the military perspective, we are now acting to secure the border. There's still areas where we haven't fixed the border completely, where they breached, and we are securing the border, and we're also severely targeting Hamas targets inside the Gaza Strip. Again, before we run to the Gazans, I think we have to give place to what actually happened here within the Israeli public. They started this. One of the tragic events when I look at them is that they targeted the Erez crossing. Up a week ago, there were more people coming into Israel for medical treatment

to work. And one of their main entry points with their ISIL pickup trucks was through the air is crossing. So before we start talking about the Palestinians, let's talk about what happened in Israel. And it was a dramatic, horrific, inhumane activity. Colonel, are you surprised by that activity? Are you surprised by the way that Hamas managed to mount this operation, carry it out, get through that fence, get within 15 kilometers of Israeli territory, even attack an Israeli military base? Are you surprised that they were able to do that without Israel being aware of what was about to happen?

So these are big questions that I'm sure they'll be talked about. I'm sure there'll be books written about what happened here with this surprise attack, which was said, we said it out loud, it was a surprise attack, combined offensive. This will be talked about a lot. Right now, I think our directive is to talk about what's actually happening on the ground, is getting back our safety and severely degrading Hamas capability in the Gaza Strip. Sadly, they've taken, they're using people as human shields and all their headquarters are entrenched in civilian community. There are attacks from last night in Sajjah and Beit Hanon,

where the launching pads for hundreds of terrorists that came into Israel. So, Colonel, you spoke there about the human shields. And I assume you're referring to the Palestinian human shields that are frequently used in Gaza and put amongst military installations. But this operation is more complicated than any the IDF has ever faced before, because there are now also Israeli captives, dozens of them, we are being told, inside Gaza. What are your options, given that there are Israeli hostages inside Gaza at the moment? So we're the people's army.

Again, I'm bringing in a personal perspective here, and this is something that is very important for the people that are watching this to understand. Every soldier that I have out here, even myself, a child that grew up in my house, one of the best friends of my daughter, died just before we came on we got told that he found his body in the division headquarters this has touched everybody here, so the hostage situation is handled very very sensitively

the IDF has taken control of this first of all engaging with the families a lot of families still don't know what's happening we're slowly unfolding while we understand the picture it'll take us some more time and yes it's going to be a very very challenging military operation i'm sure there's diplomatic channels going on they're not in my sphere of responsibility but right now the IDF is planning to severely degrade Hamas capabilities. I repeat.

International spokesperson for Israel's Defense Forces, Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht. Thank you for coming on this morning and our condolences. Thank you for having me on. On that loss you just said. And we will get into that. How could this have happened? The intelligence failures. When Morning Joe returns in 60 seconds, we'll dive into that question. We'll be right back in one minute.

Welcome back to Morning Joe as we continue to cover the events in the war, the violence in Israel over the weekend and the aftermath still playing out this morning. We're now going to bring in David Ignatius from the Washington Post and our friend Richard Haass, former president of the Council on Foreign Relations, to dive into this. And David, I will start with you. I know that the burning question here in your mind has been how could this have happened? Israel has perhaps the world's preeminent intelligence operation. Their forces are they're charged with preventing something exactly like this from ever occurring. What is your sense as to how they got caught so badly off guard Saturday morning? So, John, I'm just struck, as I think we all are, by the scope and

horror of this. Listening to the Israeli military spokesman a moment ago saying every family has been touched last night, his counterpart and another spokesman said this is the worst day in Israeli history. How could that have happened? What went wrong? What was the failure of intelligence? And as I wrote in a column last night, it wasn't simply a failure of gathering the right information, but I think of understanding that information. People have likened this terrible event to 9-11 in the United States, the 2001 attacks by al-Qaeda. Americans never imagined that al-Qaeda could seize airplanes and use them as weapons to attack buildings. And I think Israelis may never have imagined that their adversaries in Gaza, Hamas fighters, Hamas terrorists in this case, could use paragliders to fly into Israel,

could move so quickly, a thousand of them through the fence. There was a failure of imagination, in a sense, and understanding. After 9-11, we went through a long investigation, which it turned out that so many of the pieces of information that would have allowed you to see the attacks coming were in the system, but weren't understood. The famous phrase was an inability to connect the dots and see what was going on. Whether we'll find that was the case here, it's too early to say. I'm sure Israelis are going to be haunted by this failure. They have believed in their intelligence service as their best protection. They believed in the Iron Dome system and its ability to keep rockets from striking Israeli villages. I think it's fair to say that most

Israelis simply couldn't have imagined that something like this would happen. Just to say one final point, I think the crucial question today is not looking backward at the intelligence failure, but looking forward and trying to make sense of whether this is going to become a much wider war. The Wall Street Journal last night published an article that said that Iran had participated in the planning of this operation and had given a green light in effect for the operation, if Israel decides that Iran was fundamentally responsible, we have the risk of a much wider war ahead with U.S. aircraft carrier task force steaming into the eastern Mediterranean. It's as dangerous a situation as I can remember seeing in the Middle East.

Yeah. Now, some U.S. and Israeli officials pushed back against that Wall Street Journal reporting last night, but certainly that is the open question. And Richard, we'll dive into Iran's potential role into this in just a few moments. But just first want to get your just your overall impressions as to what what you saw this weekend, this incredible failure to anticipate and prevent this attack. And give us your sense as to what you see and what do you think happens now? I agree with David. It wasn't a collection failure. I think the Israelis will find when they do the archaeology on this, they had a lot of warning. I think it was

much more an analytical failure, a mindset failure. They dismissed this possibility. They didn't take the Hamas military threat seriously. I think even more devastating for Israel, Jonathan, it could be a defense failure as well. Why was it that so many Israeli forces that would normally be on alert against Gaza and those parts of Israel were probably in the West Bank? And I think that'll be a real political issue for this prime minister and this government, simply because it'll be a question of their priorities, protecting settlers and so forth. So I think when, ultimately, there'll be commissions of inquiry. And Israel, this will take months. Obviously, we've got to deal with the immediate problem.

But I think there'll be very serious defense as well as intelligence issues. I think right now for Israel, they've got a major dilemma. The word dilemma is overused. It actually applies here. They want to send the message that terrorism is unacceptable, obviously. They want Hamas to pay a price. They want to restore deterrence. All this argues for doing things militarily. But you've got all the Israeli hostages to worry about. You've got the history. Israel's been in Gaza. They left in 2005. It's one of the most densely populated pieces of real estate on the planet Earth. There aren't good military options.

Hamas cannot be totally eliminated, give it its nature. So for Israel and for the United States as their supporter, the question is, what do you do? Again, you want to show that terrorism is unacceptable. On the other hand, you've got to think about how many more military casualties do you want to take? Are you prepared to risk international backing and support that right now is coalescing around around Israel? So Israel has real dilemmas about what to do from here on in. So, Katty, of course, these attacks come at what was already a very politically fraught moment for the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. His judicial reform push questions investigations into into his and his administration's conduct, and a moment

when his relations between he and President Biden have been tense, to say the least. We did see them together on the sidelines, the United Nations General Assembly a few weeks ago, touting this possibility of an Israeli-Saudi Arabia breakthrough. We'll dive into that later. But this is a tricky moment for him and now a tricky moment for the White House. Yeah. I mean, Richard was talking about what was missed there were things missed in the U.S. intelligence forum as well. So joining us now from the North Lawn of the White House is NBC News senior White House correspondent Gabe Gutierrez. Gabe, fill us in on a couple of things. I mean, that Wall Street Journal report pointing the finger directly at Iran in terms of planning. The White House is pushing back on some of that. White House also pushing back on the notion that has been raised by some of the Republican candidates that this was financed by money that was moved from South Korea to Qatar as part of the hostage deal.

The Americans got out. Five Americans were being held in Iranian prisons. Talk about what is the White House's latest position and thinking at the moment. Hi there, Katta. Good morning. Well, several points to get to. You mentioned that Wall Street Journal reporting that Iran may have helped plot these attacks. As was just mentioned, the U.S. is pushing back strongly on that. Three U.S. officials tell NBC News that so far they have not seen any evidence to corroborate

the Wall Street Journal's account. And in fact, yesterday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in an interview, said that he had not seen any evidence that Iran was directly behind this attack. But he did point out that Iran and Hamas have had a long relationship. And he also said that U.S. officials were looking into whether part of the motivation for this attack may have been to try and derail those talks between Saudi Arabia, Israel and the U.S. of normalizing relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. foreign policy challenges, including potential fatigue over the war in Ukraine, escalating tensions between Taiwan and China, and also that potential agreement that could be derailed between Saudi Arabia and Israel. So the president has been seeing a lot of backlash from the GOP presidential candidates. They are arguing that his weak leadership somehow contributed to this

attack over the weekend. Foreign President Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, as well as Nikki Haley, attacking the Biden administration over how they've handled this. But yesterday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken pushed back on this very strongly. The idea that somehow these six billion dollars in Iranian oil revenues that were unfrozen several weeks ago by the United States in exchange for five American citizens that were released. The secretary is saying that not a cent of that money has gone to Iran just yet. And even when it does, that it has to be used for humanitarian assistance. And he said that any suggestion otherwise that that six billion dollars are somehow used to finance this attack. He called that misinformation. So over the weekend, President Biden speaking on Saturday in remarks here at the White House, also speaking multiple times with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu as he tries to shore up support for Israel. Of course, you mentioned those military assets that

are now heading into the eastern Mediterranean mediterranean to try and act as a deterrent as the white house tries to scramble to contain this attack and prevent it from becoming a multi-faceted multi-front regional conflict um in the middle east caddy and we should underscore gabe what you just said there that not a not a dime of that money has been touched yet still sitting uh in a Doha bank. We heard from the president over the weekend. He does not have any public events scheduled yet today. We'll see if that changes. NBC News senior White House correspondent Gabe Gutierrez, thank you. And as Gabe mentioned, this comes at a moment where there is fatigue potentially with the war

in Ukraine. It comes in where the U.S. does not have a confirmed ambassador to Israel. And it comes at a moment where there is no speaker of the House. And we will get into how the chaotic scene in the House of Representatives, the Republican led House of Representatives, is shaping the U.S.'s response to this crisis when we come right back. About this time yesterday, I was jogging behind me in the old city when I got an urgent call from my chief of staff telling me to get back to the hotel as quickly as I could, that Israel was under attack.

When I got back to the hotel, I joined others in the bomb shelter or the stairwells of the hotel. Frightened faces, there were children and elderly families, many Americans. There was a sense of fear and worry and a knowledge to many of us that there were horrific things going on around the country at that time. We who believe in peace and freedom and human rights for Palestinians, for Israelis, for all humankind must reject those who use terror as their weapon. Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, with that post on social media about the attacks, he was in Israel ahead of a summit on the Abraham Accords. He's back safely in the U.S. now.

Representative Dan Goldman of New York was also in Israel attending a bar mitzvah. He had a shelter in place during some rocket launches, but he also has safely returned home. Richard Haass, let's talk a little bit about two things. First, what we started to mention before the break about this precarious moment for Prime Minister Netanyahu with these attacks. Tell us what you suspect his immediate and long term future looks like. But also, more pressingly, the war itself. Where could this is this going to remain in your estimation, you know, where it is now? Or is this have the chance to really spiral to increase to a number of fronts and other other number of other nations being involved? It could stay where it is if Hamas's goal were simply to demonstrate that only it

can promote the interests of Palestinians as they see it, to set up a swap between prisoners, Hamas prisoners in Israel for hostages. So it could stay where it is. I think the odds are slightly against it, given the Israeli military action, given the dynamics that have been set in play. Big question is, what does Hezbollah do? As strong as Hamas is, Hezbollah is incomparably stronger. Hundreds of thousands of missiles or rockets that could go into Israel. Also questions, does this spread to the West Bank? Does it spread to Jerusalem? If Iran was involved, are there military actions taken against Iran? So this can spread in all sorts of ways.

But I would think the thing to keep the biggest eye on is what happens in southern Lebanon. Does Hezbollah, perhaps at Iranian prompting, decide to enter the fray? So, Cady, a lot of eyes, obviously, on that report we just mentioned about whether Iran played a direct role in this. There's there's been some pushback. But certainly if it does come out that Iran was promoting this, you know, one imagines Israel will take some significant steps in return. Yeah, that's all happening now behind the scenes with the intelligence investigation, clearly on how this happened and what was missed. But the Israelis face an incredibly urgent and very difficult calculation even more immediately, which is what to do about those Israelis

and foreigners. There are Germans there. There are Americans there. There are Brazilians and Mexicans who are also reported to be there as well. What happens to those people who are being held at the moment, as we understand it, in tunnels underneath Gaza? I mean, David, if you were sitting in Tel Aviv or Jerusalem at the moment trying to figure out what your options are as if you're the IDF or if you're Mossad or whichever of the security forces you are, what are the options for the Israelis? Their practice in the past has been to go in very hard to Gaza, and we've seen some of that,

but it must be complicated by those Israelis who are being held there. So I think it's a logistician's, a military planner's nightmare. The typical Israeli response would have been to go in hard. And in the immediate aftermath of this attack on Saturday, the expectation was that there would be a reinvasion of Gaza. Netanyahu's words seem to imply that. As we learn just how many hostages had been taken and were being kept hidden away inside Gaza, the problems with mounting that kind of invasion became more clear. These hostages will be human shields in a particularly devastating way. Israelis just abhor the loss of Israeli life, do anything that they can to avoid it. When hostages are taken, they go to extraordinary lengths to get them out. So

planning this military operation in a way that preserves to the extent possible Israeli life, but also reestablishes deterrence. Let's remember, what happened here was that Israel's deterrence, Israel's ability to scare people into not doing extraordinary attacks like this, failed. And so they've got to somehow reestablish that. And I think finally the question is, do they want to reconquer Gaza? Do they want to administer this really dreadful, difficult, small quarter? It's like an overgrown refugee camp when I've visited in the past. Do they want to take that over again, or do they want to hold back from that? I'm sure they're talking to the Jordanians, the Egyptians, other Arab countries.

I just would note one more thing. Something really important was just over the horizon in Israeli normalization with Saudi Arabia. That would be a transforming event. It would effectively signal the end of the Arab-Israeli conflict. I think the Iranians were frightened about it. It would overturn their basic ordering principle for their own foreign policy. They had every reason to try to derail that. Will the U.S. and Israel push forward with that? The Saudi initial response was not all that supportive of Israel. But will there be efforts over the coming week to get Saudis to speak up and condemn this invasion, then you'd see a positive prospect for Israel to have partners to deal with this nightmare of Hamas, to deal with Gaza going forward,

to reestablish some kind of Palestinian authority that's not based in hostage-taking and terrorist attacks. Those are live pictures, by the way, from Gaza that we're looking at at the moment, or it's 135 in the afternoon. So early afternoon in the region at the moment, and clearly some of that smoke billowing up from attacks on Gaza by the Israelis that are still happening. You've been writing about the intelligence failures, David. And at the end of your piece, you wrote this. When we say that the Gaza outrage was an Israeli version of 9-11, we should remember the other

big lesson of that catastrophe. Other than our failure to see it coming, the United States overreacted. It didn't simply take revenge and destroy its enemies. It sought to remake the Middle East with long, mostly fruitless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Is there a risk that Israel now overreacts as well? So I hope that Israeli an unwise invasion of Lebanon to go after the PLO strongholds in Beirut. That operation was very difficult. Many Israelis would say it left the country weaker than it had been before. So I think that's the kind of parallel that military planners should be thinking about. Obviously, the danger here is of moving into a much wider war that involves Iran directly, that involves Hezbollah

in Lebanon directly, that would involve Syria. Israel is surrounded. A factor that I'm very curious about is whether China, which has been brokering some kind of de-escalation between Saudi Arabia and Iran, will be brought into the diplomatic part of this to try to stabilize things, to make contact with Iran, through Iran, make contact with others in the Arab world. But it's just we don't know what's ahead. All we know is it's really dangerous. All right. We'll have much, much more on this conversation in just a moment. Still ahead here also on Morning Joe, what Senator Tommy Tuberville is saying about how the attacks in Israel could impact his blockade on military promotions. Plus, we're getting reaction from some Republican presidential candidates, why they're blaming the Biden administration for the attacks. We'll provide a fact check.

And then tomorrow, one of those GOP candidates, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, will join Morning Joe for a live interview. That's tomorrow. You're not going to want to miss it. We'll be right back. Welcome back to Morning Joe. The sun is rising at 6.42 a.m. in Washington, D.C., a beautiful shot. And it will be in Washington where the House GOP will hold a meeting later today, kicking off a week of jockeying among Republicans interested in becoming the next House Speaker

after Kevin McCarthy was ousted from that post last week. Currently, the number two Republican in the House, Steve Scalise, is in a two-way race with Jim Jordan, a leader of the party's conservative wing, as they vie to lead the chamber. This evening, the Republican conference will meet behind closed doors for for a members only meet discussion. According to the invitation, phones are to be checked at the door and staff members are not allowed in the gathering. Tomorrow, the conference will hold a candidate forum. Then on Wednesday, the conference plans to hold an internal election for speaker, which could be followed by a potential House vote. But I'll just say very few people in Washington I speak to thinks this calendar is going to stick

and that we'd get a speaker as soon as Wednesday. And someone who's been following this so very closely, NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Ali Vitale. So, Ali, walk us through what we might see the next couple of days and the complications now provided by the war in Israel. Yeah, I'm with you personally, Jonathan, that we're not going to see this come to a full consensus on Wednesday. And that's a problem on a few fronts. The first front is, of course, that it helps the House to have a speaker. That's not just a nice-to-have thing, though.

The current situation in Israel is a reminder that having a speaker pro tempore, which the House has right now, and Patrick McHenry, means that he's pretty powerless in terms of actively being able to bring things to the floor, whether that be resolutions condemning Hamas, which several lawmakers say they're working on right now, or things that are more serious in nature, like how do you get aid to this country and to our allies. All of that is going to be in the mix as lawmakers come back to town this week. But I'm not entirely sure that it shakes things loose in a constructive fashion for Republicans to have an easier time choosing the next leader of their party in the House. That's because when you think about people like Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan, yes, the race winnowed technically from three to two. Kevin Hearn, the Republican from Oklahoma, dropped out in recent days. But I have a hard time seeing, especially Jim Jordan, although he has the endorsement of someone like Donald Trump, I'm not really of the mindset that Trump moves votes on Capitol Hill. But I have a hard time seeing moderate Republicans in tough-to-defend districts. I'm thinking like my home district in New York.

It's going to be hard for them to get behind a firebrand like Jim Jordan and then go back home to their district and play defense against those attack ads. I think all of that is going to make it really difficult for Republicans to get in a room on Wednesday and come to a consensus. I've been wrong before. We could see that. Maybe some of the Republicans who went on the Sunday shows this weekend and said they think it's going to be an easy time. Maybe they're right. But if there's anything that we've seen on Capitol Hill lately is that nothing is easy. Everything is chaos. And I don't expect this week to be any different. And in a crisis, it would be a good moment to have leadership in Congress and, of course,

leadership in the military as well. Right. I mean, a good moment to have leadership in Congress and, of course, leadership in the military as well. Right. I mean, a good moment to have that. Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville, however, of Alabama, well, he's standing firm on his months long blockade on hundreds of military promotions. Despite that deadly conflict in Israel, Tuberville's blockade has put a hold on at least 300 military nominees, including top officers who would command forces in the Middle East, including Rear Admiral George Wyckoff, who is slated to lead the Fifth Fleet that includes naval forces operating in the Middle East at the moment. The current Fifth Fleet commander, Vice Admiral Brad Cooper, is supposed to be promoted to deputy commander of U.S. CENTCOM,

which oversees troops and military operations in the Middle East region. But that promotion is also being held up by Tuberville. In a statement, Tuberville's office reaffirmed his stance and suggested Democrats could call each of the hundreds of nominations for individual votes. That process would take hundreds of hours, however. The Republican senator has maintained the promotions blockade to the protest to protest the Defense Department's policy that gives time off and reimbursements for service members and their family members seeking abortions out of state. It does seem like an extraordinary time for America not to have the people in place that it needs in CENTCOM and in the Fifth Fleet, just as that Fifth Fleet alley is moving closer to the region. Is there anyone there on Capitol Hill, presumably on the Senate side, I'm not sure

where that leadership would come from, but who could put pressure on Senator Tuberville to say, you know, OK, we get the stance, but right now U.S. forces are in a position where they could materially aid our key ally in the region, Israel, and we need those promotions in post. Of course, the landscape has changed over the course of the last two to three days, Katty, but that pressure has already been on the senator from Alabama. And it does feel like at each turn when there is an opportunity for an exit ramp, he does not take it and continues to hold his ground here.

We did see the confirmation of three key postings. That was something that Senator Chuck Schumer did a few weeks ago. But as you mentioned, it would take hours to go through each of these positions one by one and confirm them. The national security concerns here are not new. From the moment that Tuberville began this blockade and these promotions started piling up, experts and national security officials were clear. This is endangering U.S. national security. That has not changed Tuberville's mind. It's going to be interesting to see whether or not Israel now being a factor implicates or changes anything in the mind of the senator. But I do think it's important to note we're not going to see senators back this week. They are out of town, on recess, some of them on codels across

the country. I'm sorry, across the world. That's going to be something that keeps them far from Washington. They're still getting briefed. But in terms of us being able to press Senator Tuberville, that's not something that we're going to see. And I think there's also the open question of now that Israel is part of the landscape, How does this impact the conversation around Ukraine aid, especially as some Republican senators have been reticent to give there but are calling for aid to Israel now? Yeah, we'll dive into that little complication in a little while. NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Al Vitale. Thank you. Busy few days ahead for you. We appreciate it. Coming up here on Morning Joe, we're going to go live to Tel Aviv for the latest on the war with Hamas and what the U.S. is doing to assist and support Israel. Plus, an analysis from retired Navy Admiral James Tavridis. He was in charge of U.S.-Israeli

military cooperation for four years. We'll get his take on what's coming next following what he deems a 9-11 level event. Also ahead, the ranking Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Congressman Gregory Meeks, will join the conversation. Morning Joe will be right back. 6.53 a.m. here on the East Coast. It's the afternoon in Gaza City. We're looking at live footage there of smoke billowing over Gaza City as part of presumably Israel's response to the violence of the weekend. And David Ignatius, you are just back, of course, from Kiev. And the situation in Ukraine and that in Israel seem oddly linked. First of all, of course, from Kiev and the situation in Ukraine and that in Israel seem oddly linked. First of all, of course, there's the possible role that Iran is playing here in the violence

in the Middle East. We know that Iran has partnered with Russia in their own war effort. And there's also, as Ali just sort of hinted at, this sort of political jiu-jitsu being played by some in the Republican Party who are eager to draw down U.S. support for Kiev, but yet are rushing to aid Israel. So it is a world of trouble. I was in Ukraine. I left Ukraine on Saturday. And seeing that war, hearing from Ukrainians the sense of exhaustion, but still intense commitment as they face a winter that's going to be, I think, even more difficult than last winter. Trying to think about how they push the Russians back, how they push on, they hope toward victory. Their dependence on U.S. aid is absolutely 100 percent,

as somebody said to me. One idea I heard from a Republican who knows the House well is maybe you can get a package that pulls together aid to Israel, aid to Taiwan, aid to Ukraine, and put it all together in a package for friends of America and try to get something through this year. But I think for the moment, what must please the Russians most, Jonathan, is that the attention is off the Ukraine war. Everybody in the world is going to be focusing on Israel and the situation in the Middle East for the next while. And the Russians, we'll see if there's any let up, if the Russians seek to play any kind of diplomatic role. They have pretty good relations with Israel under the table. So that's something I'll be watching.

David, your last point I wanted to pick up on, which is whether this causes some distraction or turning away from from Ukraine. And you were just there with your sense of how the leadership in Ukraine sees the passage of time. You saw the Polish farmers, that issue. You've seen what's happened in the House. Now there's this. Whether there's a growing concern that Putin may have a point, unfortunately, that time is not their friend and that the rest of the world will grow a little bit fatigued with the war and start focusing on other things. War fatigue is without question a concern in Kiev. The fatigue of their donor nations, the United States and Europe, but the fatigue of the Ukrainian people. They've taken such a punishing.

The depletion of their frontline units is terrible. That's one reason that their counteroffensive slowed is they're just losing so many people in the minefields. I visited a hospital that makes prosthetic limbs for amputees. The number of amputees that you see coming off the front lines is just heart-rending. So I think there's concern. What people say, you know, when you press anybody is, we are in this for as long as it takes. We are so grateful the United States for standing by us. Without America's help, we would not stand a chance of fighting this Russian aggression. So I hope people in the

United States hear that, hear those voices, even as we're focusing this week on the terrible events in Israel. Yeah, and certainly even as the world's attention turns to Israel, Russia has not relented a couple of terrible airstrikes with dozens of fatalities over the weekend in Ukraine. The Washington Post's David Ignatius, we're so grateful to you for joining us this morning. Thanks, John.