Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/1/22

Episode Date: November 1, 2022

Suspect in Paul Pelosi attack planned to break House speaker's kneecaps, DOJ says in filing charges

And it's very sad to see that we are once again at a point in history where people believe that it's okay to express their political sentiments through violence. And so I think it really demonstrates that we have to calm things down. We have to decide that we are going to be more respectful as an American society, that it's okay to disagree. San Francisco's district attorney makes a plea for decency and discourse following the politically motivated attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband. And now we are learning more about what the suspect had planned for the speaker of the House. Also this morning, President Biden is hitting the campaign trail again as we are now one week away from Election Day. We'll tell you where he's headed today and why.

Meanwhile, a member of a group who tried to overturn our last election expresses remorse for his actions. What he told a federal judge about January 6th straight ahead. And we'll have the very latest from Ukraine, where there are long lines for essential needs following weeks of attacks on critical infrastructure. Retired Admiral John Kirby will be our guest this morning. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Tuesday, November 1st, exactly one week until the midterm vote. Joe will be back tomorrow. But along with Willie and me, we have Pulitzer Prize winning columnist at The Washington Post, Eugene Robinson, member of The New York Times editorial board, Mara Gay,

the host of way too early White House bureau chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire, and NBC News senior reporter Ben Collins. And Willie, we're having Ben back today. He was pointing out the conspiracy theories yesterday in light of the attack on Paul Pelosi and how they've spiraled out of control with no guardrails. And we saw it again yesterday after the news conference that we just showed you a part of where within seconds, if you went on Twitter or anywhere online that was, you know, off the mainstream media, off of the focus. It was incredible. The conspiracy theories, the vitriol, the hatred, the cruelty that started flying once again about Paul Pelosi. Things are different and there's a

new level of dangerous. Yeah. And it's pervasive now. Even if you don't believe the conspiracy theory, you've heard the conspiracy theory. You're aware of it because it's everywhere online. And Ben, of course, was right yesterday. We got documentary evidence yesterday. The man accused of breaking into House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's home and brutally attacking her 82 year old husband has been hit with a slew of state and federal charges. The Department of Justice has charged David DePapp with attempted kidnapping and assault with intent to retaliate against a federal official by threatening or injuring a family member. Hours later, the San Francisco district attorney charged the 42-year-old with attempted murder, burglary, assault with a deadly weapon, elder abuse, false imprisonment,

and for threats to a public official and their family. According to the federal complaint, DePatt planned to kidnap the House speaker when he broke into her San Francisco home last Friday, not realizing she was in Washington, D.C. Federal prosecutors say the suspect told San Francisco police he was going to hold the House speaker hostage and talk to her and that if she lied, he said he was going to break her kneecaps. His words, according to the federal complaint, he added, quote, she would then have to be wheeled into Congress, which would show other members of Congress there were consequences to actions. The assailant articulated he viewed Nancy Pelosi as the leader of the pack of lies told by the Democratic Party. The suspect also told investigators he wanted to use the House speaker to lure someone else to him. The complaint did not specify who that person was. During a news conference yesterday, the San Francisco D.A. said it appears the attack was politically motivated.

What we also have learned is that the defendant brought to the location of the Pelosi residence a second hammer, as well as zip ties, rope and a roll of tape. What is clear based on the evidence that we have thus far is that this house and the speaker herself were specifically targets of the defendant. The accused attacker is set to be arraigned later today. The D.A. says she wants him held without bail. At last check, Paul Pelosi still is in the ICU. The house speaker released a statement yesterday that reads, in part, we've been deluged with thousands of messages conveying concern, prayers and warm wishes. We're most grateful.

Thanks to the excellent trauma care medical team at Zuckerberg San Francisco General Hospital, Paul is making steady progress on what will be a long recovery process. Our family thanks everyone for their kindness. A statement from Speaker Pelosi. Let's bring in NBC News justice and intelligence correspondent Ken Delanian. Ken, walk us through a bit more, if you would, the affidavit from the FBI, part of which I read a minute ago. I said Ben was right, of course, yesterday because the conspiracy theory was disproven by what amounts to a confession by this man yesterday.

That's right, Willie. We learned that the timeline laid out in the affidavit matched up with what we had already heard about this event. But then we also learned that the confession from DuPap confirmed the essential facts that there were only two people in the house, that DuPap came there with the intent of trying to kidnap and hold hostage Nancy Pelosi and torture her. He broke in with a hammer through a glass door, raising questions about the lack of security at the Speaker of the House's home in San Francisco, got up to Paul Pelosi's bedroom, surprised him in the bedroom, according to this affidavit. As we'd already learned, Pelosi managed to go to the bathroom and call 911. What we learned yesterday was that the assailant knew he did that, but decided to stay there anyway to face the police because he believed he was opposing tyranny and surrender was not an option.

So he already was using that kind of language, this QAnon sort of January 6th style language. And then when police arrived, they say that both men had their hands on a hammer. They asked if everything was OK. DuPap said everything's fine here. Then immediately rested the hammer from Paul Pelosi and smashed him in the head

with it, according to police. And then they went and grabbed the assailant, interviewed him. And the most chilling part of the interview was that he said that his intention was to hold Nancy Pelosi, ask her some questions.

He assumed, he said, that she would lie to him and then he would smash her kneecaps with a hammer. And he hoped that she would be wheeled into Congress as a lesson to other members of Congress because he believed she was in charge of the lies from the Democratic Party, according to this affidavit. And I think what's really important about this federal prosecution, guys, is that this assault charge, it's not just an assault charge. It's a rarely used charge. It's almost a terrorism charge in the sense that it makes it illegal to assault a relative of a federal official with the intent to coerce or intimidate or prevent that official from carrying out their duties. So it assumes a political motive and it carries 30 years in prison and it's rarely used. And as I was talking to Justice Department officials about why they brought this case, even though they knew that the locals would have plenty of charges and plenty of

prison time, they really believe that this is a dangerous moment in our democracy, not because this is a Democratic Speaker of the House's residence that was attacked, but because there's so much rhetoric out there, dangerous rhetoric, encouraging violence against politicians, election workers, that they felt it was really important to bring a federal case here, and particularly this charge of trying to intimidate a federal official to send a message that this conduct cannot be tolerated. Well, we're going to have more examples of that dangerous rhetoric that's actually happening on the campaign trail as we move forward, even with people mocking what has happened to Paul Pelosi or thinking somehow

there's a joke here. Now, Republicans will say, well, look what happened when this happened. Look what happened when Steve Scalise was shot. When Steve Scalise was shot, this show went wall to wall with coverage. And I don't think there's a Democrat on the record making fun of it. I don't think there is a high profile Democratic leader saying conspiracy theories or someone who worked in a Democratic administration spreading lies on the Internet. I don't think that happened. You can correct me, Ben. You can check that out. But I'm pretty sure when Steve Scalise was shot, there was unity. And I believe Nancy Pelosi called for that unity. Today, we have people laughing two seconds after the San Francisco district attorney confirms that this was a politically motivated attack, that Nancy Pelosi's husband suffered a severe injury to his brain, to his skull with a man with a hammer who tried to kill him, who came to maim Nancy Pelosi.

And Republicans are mocking this and having fun with this on the campaign trail. So, Ben Collins, I toss to you on this note that within seconds of the latest news on this event, the vitriol continued, the cruelty continued. But what are you looking at in terms of true danger to our democracy in light of this type of talk happening? I think the most important thing to know here is that the myth won. I'm not saying that everyone believes this. I'm saying half the people in that party believe this, right? And that's what the issue is.

Service to the myth. Service to the myth that the other is out to get you is winning. So it's November 1st right now. Yesterday was Halloween. Crossed the, a couple weeks ago, everyone was talking about how fentanyl was going to be in your kid's candy, right? It was a big myth, big fear of how the drug dealers are going to put all the fentanyl in your kid's candy. Didn't happen. We're here today. We would be talking about that right now, probably. There

was this big scourge of that. Also, the last few weeks, there is this myth that trans kids were identifying as animals and using litter boxes in schools, right? It was said Thursday by Don Bolduc, who's trying to mainstream himself as a center candidate for the Senate in New Hampshire. That myth persevered. The myth is persevering in these spaces. And I want to say the myth in this case is insane. The myth in this case, this is what they actually believe. They spent a weekend world building this thing, like creating this world inside of Nancy Pelosi's house.

The point of the myth was to say that these, because these people don't understand how gay relationships work. That's what this is about, by the way. They were saying that two people with hammers were doing something with hammers because that's what gay people do. And that people and this was intruded upon by the police and that that's what the joke is. Donald Trump Jr. was tweeting about this yesterday. Marjorie Taylor Greene was tweeting about this yesterday. That this was that this is the world gone amok. A sitting member of Congress. A sitting member of Congress. And that this is somehow deserved. So that's the issue. Right now,

service to these myths, service to these urban legends, to make people afraid of the other, instead of the real issues that we have, instead of inflation, all these other things, that we should really be talking about. We are targeting trans people. We're targeting gay people. We're targeting immigrants. And it's a way for these people to distract even if one of their own people does political violence in their name. And there's no guardrails, Willie. I mean, we talk about Marjorie Taylor Greene and others like her and we say, oh, that's just, No, she's a sitting member of Congress and it's been accepted. Yeah, it's been accepted. There's that side of it. There's the conspiracy theories that have been fanned and flamed by people in power, people online as well. And then there's the mockery of an 82 year old grandfather being beaten inside his own home with

a hammer that's being carried out by someone who's seeking high office. Carrie Lake is the latest Republican to mock the attack on Nancy Pelosi's husband. She's the nominee, of course, for governor, the Republican nominee of Arizona, making a joke about the attack last night during a town hall. She was asked about school safety, and here is how she responded. It is not impossible to protect our kids at school. They act like it is. Nancy Pelosi, well, she's got protection when she's in D.C. Apparently her house doesn't have a lot of protection.

But that, what is that? To laughter. We reached out at NBC News to Lake's campaign. The campaign responded by saying her remarks did not need clarifying, effectively saying she stands by the joke. Mara, so there are a lot of there's a lot going on here, obviously. But at the core of this, the reason that Nancy Pelosi and others spoke out so strongly when Steve's police was shot was because it was horrifying. It was a horrible event. And they stated the obvious.

Here you have some people getting measured responses on the Republican side, not giving any responses at all, or in some cases mocking what happened to an 82-year-old man. Well, that's what's so terrifying is now we have a situation in which a small group of people really who are not only believing these myths, but willing to perpetrate violence because of them. You know, that number of people is thankfully so far been actually quite small. The problem is the mainstreaming and the normalization of that kind of violence and the validation of it by figures that are serving in our nation's highest office. And what that sends is a message to anybody else that this is

acceptable. In fact, maybe it's righteous. Maybe it's necessary to save our country, as the language of the Republican Party has now embraced. And that's what's really scary. And it's not only scary for public officials, but as you mentioned, Ben, a moment ago, you know, the people who in this country are being targeted, are being scapegoated in the moment by the Republican Party's, I would say, fringes, but it's no longer fringes. Gay people, transgender Americans, immigrants, women, black Americans, those people know, all those Americans know right now that they have a target on their backs.

And that's because political violence is now acceptable. And that's terrifying. Yeah, I was talking to Joe yesterday evening and he just to that point, Mara, if this had happened back when he was in Congress, Democrats and Republicans would have stood together in unity and in prayer denouncing political violence. There is nothing like that happening right now. You have Mitch McConnell, you know, thankfully saying something, but in a silo. You have different Republicans maybe saying, well, violence can't be accepted. That's not helpful.

That's not addressing what happened. OK, this was political violence and that had complete parallel matching to what led up to January 6th, to the types of rhetoric that Donald Trump has brought into the Republican Party. Either you denounce that or you're with it. Let's bring in attorney and contributing columnist for The Washington Post, George Conway. And George, the normalization of this violence that Mara and Willie were talking about, the convenient lies that can circulate on the Internet to try and deflect from the horror of what has happened and leads to people being led to laugh in cruelty when Carrie Lake makes fun of 82-year-old Paul Pelosi having his head bashed in with a hammer, a skull fracture, and surgery. People laugh. Just

take a moment and take that in. What a sick, sick place we're at right now in this country. But that would happen. That moment is sickening. And yet there's no recourse, George. There's no guardrails. I mean, there is a direct link, as you just pointed out a minute ago, between the kind of rhetoric that led to January 6th and the kind of rhetoric that led to the incident at the Pelosi home. I'll give you an example. In the arrest affidavit filed yesterday by the FBI,

he told the FBI that much that he was he didn't leave after the 911 call because much like the American founding fathers with the British, he was fighting against tyranny without the option of surrender. I mean, that harkens back to the tweet that Lauren Boebert, a member of Congress, sent out on at 830 a.m. on the 6th of January 2021, where she said today is 1776. It's the same thing. Where's76. It's the same thing. Where's Nancy? It's the same thing. It's the entire ecosystem that promotes violence, that promotes violent words, and then now both promotes it and also other people who just let it slide. We've heard so much silence from from Republicans, which is which is just as bad as some of the rhetoric. So, Gene Robinson, there seems to be

a confluence of two disturbing trends right now. The post January 6th normalization of violence in our political discourse. We've talked on the show for a long time about how law enforcement officers, political government agencies now believe and are deeply worried about how violence has become part of the acceptable political rhetoric post-January 6th. That's number one. And number two, how the governing ethos for so many Republicans is simply own the lips. It's about whatever it is to score a moment, to score a point on Twitter, on Instagram, whatever it might be. And there is no attempt at all to show even any common decency. It's all about, even in this case, when an 82-year-old grandfather is in critical condition

with a fractured skull, it's about owning the libs. Is this party too far gone to be saved? It appears to be too far gone to be saved. I don't know what would save it. And first, let's let's all send our best wishes and our prayers to Paul Pelosi, an 82 year old man who was savagely beaten with a hammer by a man who was impelled by this rhetoric. It's not just the normalization of cruelty and violence. It's that the cruelty and violence now are the whole point. That's the whole point of the Republican Party now. And that is a crazy thing to say, but it's true.

That's the way Republican officials are communicating with their base and motivating their base. I've never seen anything like this. I don't know that we've ever been in a place like this, except in the years, maybe the 1850s. I mean, and now we have to start using that as a historical antecedent, because certainly this, except in the years, maybe the 1850s. And now we have to start using that as a historical antecedent, because certainly nothing since, we've seen absolutely nothing like this. And this is one of our two major parties that has gone so off the rails and has become just such a clear and present danger.

It is, I don't know how we get off this ledge. I don't know how we get back from this. I know how we should. Republicans, responsible Republicans ought to be speaking out. They ought to be standing with Democrats and all members of Congress at a moment like this, when the husband of the Speaker of the House was savagely attacked. There should be a prayer service. There should be unity and compassion. And what there is, is is owning the libs, but owning the libs in this cruel, violent way that is essentially the whole point of Republican communication these days. It is so dangerous. To Gene's point, well, during this very dangerous time where who knows what

will happen next? We just know there will be a next time. The one thing that could tamp this down is all Republicans standing up against what happened. I venture to say that it shouldn't even be hard for them to stand up and say, tone it down, cut it out. You know, we're not talking like Donald Trump. He may be our guy, but we're not talking like him. And we're not allowing this. And we will not have this in our politics. That's the one thing that could actually bring this down to a more normal level where there's humanity again in our politics.

Well, he could turn down the temperature himself. Of course he could. He never has. I won't even bother to turn that. But you're so right. I'm sitting here listening to this. How are we even having this conversation? Talk about an easy call here. 82 year old man. Any man has his home broken into in the middle of the night, beaten over the head with a hammer. What are we debating that you've been talking about. It's from the San Francisco police chief yesterday on CNN. Quote, There is absolutely no evidence Mr. Pelosi knew this man. As a matter of fact, the evidence indicates the exact opposite.

That's from the police. Now, I'm sure you're seeing online from this FBI affidavit where DePap confesses to this being politically motivated. People saying, well, it's the same FBI who broke into Donald Trump's house. So all these conspiracy theories and all this undermining of everything all the time in the media sort of comes home to roost in moments like this. Yeah. Everything's in service to the talking point that they had already established over the weekend in that information vacuum that existed in the weekend. You know, over the weekend, there was no official word, no official narrative. It was filled up by people like Elon Musk. And that's the dangerous cocktail that we have here, right?

So we have two major problems that are melding together into one very big problem. The Republican Party has decided that intimidation is a big part of what they're doing, even at the local level. For example, school board meetings, these drag queen story hours that are always taken over by Proud Boys. Things they don't like, things that they want to talk about, books in schools, and they want to talk about drag queens. Those are taken over by Proud Boys. And if there's a vote at that school board, at that library board of commissioners, maybe,

the Proud Boys are there to intimidate the people. I saw this firsthand. I was in Stockton, California last year. And somebody who stormed the Capitol on January 6th was outside of a school board meeting. She didn't have a kid in that school, but she was able to overturn a mask mandate right before Omicron hit. So that's one side of this. The idea that as Charlie Kirk from Turning Point USA, the big conservative PAC for young people said yesterday that our country is not a democracy, it's a republic. That in conjunction with the fueling and monetization of these culture wars by people like Elon Musk,

where they are incentivized to keep these things going, incentivized to keep this intimidation tactic over actual discourse, over humanity. When you put those two things together, that is how you get fascism. Unfortunately, there's no other word for this. I know we're tiptoeing around this thing. But historically, this is how you get to fascism. Unfortunately, there's no other word for this. I know we're tiptoeing around this thing. But historically, this is how you get to fascism. You get intimidation because people feel helpless because their vote is lesser, because they are becoming a minority in this country. That, combined with violence, combined with a media ecosystem that incentivizes

that sort of othering, that sort of idea that you're losing your power. Historically, throughout time, it hasn't happened here yet in this way, but there's no reason it can't. And that's how it's going to happen if we don't really start right now to inject some humanity into our politics. It's really important what you just said and then add to it social media, Twitter, and that can actually make the process move a lot faster as we can see things whipping around within seconds after the news conference yesterday, just as one example. NBC's Ken Delaney will end this block on you. Tell us what you're looking for ahead on this case, especially given what Ben just said.

Right. Well, I think, look, if a Republican was responding to the conversation that just happened, he or she would probably say, look, this was a mentally disturbed person, clearly, who did not was not living in the real world. And that may or may not be true. But the reason the Justice Department brought these very serious charges on top of the state charges is because this is exactly the worst nightmare of law enforcement officials. This wasn't a real terrorist attack in a sense of this was some Republican operative going to actually kidnap Nancy Pelosi. This was a person on the fringes who was living in a garage, but who got caught up in this rhetoric that's out there that's been mainstreamed that is being consumed all over the place. And that's exactly why the intelligence community put out a warning on Friday that there's a lot of dangerous rhetoric around fraud in the election that is putting election workers, election

administrators, politicians at risk. And they wanted to warn law enforcement agencies to be on the lookout for this, that even if some of this is protected free speech, they have to pay close attention because it's it's getting close to violence, that the danger is elevated as never before. So that's that's the real issue here, is that people on the fringes who who have a tendency to violence anyway are going to be motivated by this extreme rhetoric. Listen, the Republicans who are responsible right now for whether or not this continues or it actually is tamped down, it's on you. It's on you not to talk about this as an isolated incident. Again, to Ken's point and to the point we were making yesterday on this show, you can't just say, oh, this this man was deranged. It's

just an isolate. He was so confused. He was. He was so confused. You're hiding behind that. You're hiding behind that. You're using that as a way to get out of the conversation instead of address what happened. Of course, he was deranged. Vulnerable, weak people get preyed upon by cult leaders or fascists. And yes, they are led to do crazy, dangerous things that happened on January 6th. Did you see those people? They were fervently, violently, desperately looking for Nancy. They were looking to kill people. They were going in there with zip ties and defecating all over the place and breaking windows and going crazy all in the name of Donald Trump. Let's not, let's not pussyfoot around this. Come on. Let's not, let's, let's look at all the evidence.

Let's use your eyes, Republicans. And this is your moment. This is when you could help get things back on track for this country instead of for yourself. And secondly, using other reasons to try and get around this, like, oh, what about, look what happened with Steve, stop lying. Stop pretending that other attacks in the past that happened on either side of the aisle was the same. It wasn't the same. The reaction to the shooting of Steve Scalise was unanimous unanimously against political violence on both sides of the aisle. And you know it. Stop trying to take your response and isolate it and save it from the truth. So you continue the violent rhetoric out there. Do something.

You are the only ones who can. Just like on January 6th, Donald Trump was the only person who really could have made that crowd turn around. They were looking at his tweets. They were listening to everything he said. If he said vehemently and right away, turn around, come back, they would have all turned around and you know it. They would have stopped. You can make this stop.

And at this point, only you. NBC's Ken Delaney, And thank you very much. NBC News senior reporter Ben Collins. Thank you as well. We really appreciate your coverage and still ahead on Morning Joe. We are one week until the midterm elections. President Biden is hitting the campaign trail heading for Florida today and to Pennsylvania this weekend. We'll preview those stops and the president's closing message to voters. Plus, Steve Kornacki is standing by at the big board. He joins us next to break down where some of the most closely watched races stand. And before we go to break, two special

Morning Joe events to tell you about. First, this coming Sunday, join us for a special primetime hour of Morning Joe as we look at the critical races and key issues on the ballot ahead of Tuesday's vote. That's this Sunday at 9 p.m. Eastern on MSNBC. And then next Wednesday, the morning after the election, a special edition of Morning Joe in front of a live studio audience. We're going to break down all the results with an all-star political panel and special guests, and we'll discuss what it all means for the future of this country. For more on how to secure your spot in the audience, scan the QR code that's on your screen right now. We'll also have all the information on our website, joe.msnbc.com. We'll be right back. President Biden will hit the campaign trail today with a trip to Florida in Fort Lauderdale.

The president is set to discuss what his administration has done to strengthen Medicare and Social Security protections for Americans. The president also will reunite with former President Barack Obama on the trail this weekend. The White House says the two leaders will take the stage together in Philadelphia on Saturday to stump for Pennsylvania's Democratic nominees for governor and Senate, Josh Shapiro and John Fetterman. Let's bring in NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki at his post at the big board one week from the midterm. Steve, good morning. What are you looking at? Yeah, well, we've been monitoring the big picture political climate and take a look at this. New

numbers from Gallup asking folks here, what is the top issue or really what are the issues you consider extremely important as you make up your mind? And you can see, not surprisingly, the economy continues to finish first there. You see abortion, crime, gun policy, immigration. What's striking about this poll from Gallup is you then ask folks who cite the economy as extremely important or abortion is extremely important. You ask them, OK, are you going to vote for the Democrats or are you going to vote for the Republicans? Is there a partisan advantage on these issues at all? And look at how this kind of jumps out at you here on four of the top five issues that voters identify Republicans with the advantage on three of those with significant advantages, over 30 points on the economy, nearly 30 points on crime, more than 30 on immigration,

slight on gun policy. The one Democratic advantage here, it is double digits, is on the issue of abortion here. Obviously, Democrats have been playing that up as aggressively as they can since the Supreme Court ruling back at the end of June. So you look at this screen, you look at these issues, you look at these Republican advantages and you say that should add up to a pretty overwhelming Republican climate where it gets a little bit complicated as you take a look at the generic ballot. We've been tracking this every week. Do you want Democrats?

Do you want Republicans to be running Congress when you put it that way to people? Well, we're getting some mixed signals. There's a couple of different places out there that average these together. So give you a sense of the range here. Real clear politics. They've been doing this for 20 years. Their average has the Republicans leading on the generic ballot by a little bit under three points. That's where it's been in this average for the last couple of weeks. Five thirty eight,

which also does this. It's not all of the same polls between these two. There's a different formula involved here. There's some complexity, but basically the five thirty eight average has it at just a tick under a point Republican advantage in both of them. But a difference there of about one point and three points. Again, we're talking about a situation where Republicans just need a net gain of five seats to get control of the House. So anything in this range would probably be enough to get them the House. But there is a big question here about potentially the magnitude. Is it something they just get by a small margin or is there a bigger wave that takes shape? So that's some suspense there on the

generic ballot compared to those issue polling, issue polls I was just showing you. You take a look at the Senate battleground again in blue, five most vulnerable Democratic seats in red, five most vulnerable Republican seats. Name of the game for Republicans is they need a net gain of one seat to break that 50-50 tie that now goes to Democrats because of Kamala Harris. So break it down. Of those Democratic seats, take a look at the polling averages in those Democratic-held seats, and you can see that actually Georgia right now, Herschel Walker, slight, slight lead in the polling average in Georgia over Raphael Warnock, seven-tenths of one point.

Georgia's a runoff state. Nobody right now in the polling average in Georgia is over 50. So if they both finish out the 50 percent in election night, they'll do it all over again in a runoff on December 6th. But potentially, let's just say for the sake of showing you how this could play out, if Georgia flipped to the Republicans or if one of these other states flipped to the Republicans, the Democrats have to flip one from the Republican side to maintain balance, to counter the Republican gain. And that's why all year Pennsylvania has loomed so large. You just mentioned Barack Obama, Joe Biden. They're going to be there in Philadelphia on election eve with John Fetterman. This race is crucial for Democrats. It's a state that Biden won

in 2020. It's the only one of these five Republican seats here where consistently Democrats have led in the polling. It's gotten closer in the polling. You can see on the average Fetterman now up by one point. It was basically nine over the summer. It's come all the way down to one a week before the election. But this is the seat. If Democrats get this, this would be a pickup. Remember, it's a Republican held seat right now, and it would allow them to lose one from this column because we show you Georgia, but Nevada looks shaky for them as well. Arizona, they've gotten a little bit more encouraging news in the polling, especially yesterday from the New York Times. New Hampshire, I might add, looms as a bit of a wild card. A lot of national

Republicans just kind of gave up on this New Hampshire race. When Don Bolduc became the nominee, they swung and missed it, recruiting a bunch of Republicans they thought could win the state. The polling, though, that's been coming back in New Hampshire, a lot closer than expected. So it looms as a wild card. But the bottom line is, if one of these goes, Democrats need to counter it over here. Pennsylvania continues to loom as by far their best shot at that. So no surprise you're going to see Obama, Biden and the whole crew in Philadelphia the Saturday before the election. Yeah. Bring it out. The big guns in Pennsylvania. So, Steve, a little bit of a viewer's guide for election night, which we should be prepared for

like we were last time in terms of counting the votes. Pennsylvania, for example, they don't start to count the mail in vote till Election Day to the great frustration of a lot of people. So what might Election Day the day after the day after, the day after, what might this look like as it rolls out? Yeah, I see cautious optimism. I'll go back to that map here that this will be quicker than 2020, because if you remember in 2020, Pennsylvania got called finally for Joe Biden Saturday at about 1130 a.m. That was the call that gave Biden the presidency. And at that point, we still hadn't called North Carolina. We still hadn't called Georgia. We still hadn't called Arizona. We still hadn't called Nevada. So that was what happened in 2020. Now, there's some hope

that it might be a little bit more efficient this year in Pennsylvania. You're right. The big issue in Pennsylvania in 2020 was they had never really done mass scale mail in voting before they did. They weren't prepared for it. And the state law was never changed to allow them to process this flood of mail-in ballots ahead of time. That hasn't changed. The state law hasn't changed. But the number of people voting by mail may be significantly lower this time.

The counties may be more prepared to deal with what they do get this time. Also, Pennsylvania has financially incentivized the counties basically to stay open around the clock until they can get things counted. So there's some reason to think that Pennsylvania may be a little bit quicker. Again, you look at North Carolina, there's a 75,000 vote victory for Donald Trump in that state. It was a close race in 2020. Again, the volume of mail voting, high when you consider a few years ago, but potentially lower, significantly lower when you compare it to 2020. And the mail is what slowed things down in North Carolina. North Carolina does allow for the pre-processing and the pre-tallying of the early vote in the mail-in vote. So we could get a much

earlier read out of North Carolina. We could get an earlier read out of Georgia this time. There are some signs from these states that we might know a little bit more, a little bit sooner. I do think Arizona, though, it's pretty established in Arizona. If the races are close in Arizona, that's going to take a couple of days. And Nevada, too, could take a couple of days as well. And by the way, if the House, if it ever came down to it, if it ever came down to Democrats actually having a shot to hang on to the House and we're talking like they end up with 220, 221 seats, that Democratic majority would ultimately be made in the state of California. It would come down to California, a whole bunch of districts there. California will take a month to count the votes in those districts. So if House control really

ever is on the line, it's election month. All right. So we'll settle in those districts. So if House control really ever is on the line, it's election month. All right. So we'll settle in for that. Steve, thanks so much. We appreciate it. There's a lot there. All right. Joining us now, former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio. And I'm going to talk about the strategy that Democrats have been employing. And you say voting is emotional and that we need to move people. What Democrats, what issues are best for that and what Democrats are employing them the best? You know, I was looking at Steve's report. I mean, let's not let's not forget Ohio here. Tim Ryan has actually said something.

I think he's had incredible emotional appeal across the aisle. It's about working people. He has shown a lot of independence in his own approach. People know that he is looking out for his state, his voters. He's not part of the Washington elite, even though he's been there for a while. I think Tim's a great example of what we need more from Democrats. He's given people a sense of we're going to fight back against some of the problems and re-empower working people in the process. So you you can speak to strategies that have worked and that have not worked.

What is it that Tim Ryan is doing? What other races could they do more to connect with voters from what you've seen out on the campaign trail? My experience has been if you get to the closing argument and you're still on a defensive, you're losing. If you're not turning to both your own message and some version of hope and optimism, we all think 08 Obama is the great exemplar of this. The bottom line, if you're not giving people a reason to vote, they're not voting. And what we're seeing

here in Steve's results, Democrats have to turn out. They're not just going to turn out out of anger. You know, we spoke, you were so powerful in the previous block, Mika, on the question of what's happening in this country. But everyday voters, I think, are thinking for better or for worse, are thinking more about the kitchen table, the pocketbook. Democrats got to speak to that. Now, again, I think Tim Ryan's done that. I think Fetterman's done that brilliantly, notwithstanding the challenges he's facing personally. He's done that brilliantly, notwithstanding the challenges he's facing personally. He's done that brilliantly by giving people a sense that his focus is on everyday working people and that he can do something to shake up the status quo.

That's going to motivate people. There's going to be a sense that there's actually a reason to come out. Right. Mara. Yeah, Bill, it's it's interesting. Not only are Democrats, other than folks like Tim Ryan, not really speaking to independent voters, they're not really speaking to their base very effectively either. Can you talk a little bit about what you think actually is necessary to turn out the base in this moment? And what the heck is going on in New York, where the governor's race has become strangely and unusually close? Well, I think it's some of the same reality. I think very highly of Kathy Hochul. I think she is a very relatable human being. I haven't seen enough of that message of sort of I'm on your side, I'm one of you, because I think she could do that

message very plausibly. And I would argue she's done a good job of putting some money back in people's pocket in the context of the post-pandemic reality, we hope post-pandemic reality. You know, she's focused on child care. She's focused on things like some tax relief for middle class, working class people. But I think the message has been much less of that kind of strong. I'm on your side. I'll fight for you. And I think she still has this last week to get that across effectively because of her own human qualities. I think overall, the problem for Democrats, I agree with you not speaking to the base is what will we do next for you? There's been these legislative

victories. I mean, really some real action on prescription drug costs. That's that's as kitchen table as it gets. That affects millions and millions of people. The infrastructure bill is going to ultimately help tens of millions of people. But what I think has been lacking is what's the next big step? So I would urge Democrats at this point to speak to the base from the position of not just look how awful the other side is, because a lot of people stay home on that. But here's our next big idea. Whatever that candidate is, Tim Ryan, for example, I'll give him a lot of credit. He speaks about fixing what's wrong in the global situation with China, fighting back against some of the dominance that China has economically,

re-empowering working class people, factories in Ohio and in America again. That's a vision you can latch on. You know who did that very effectively, tragically, in 2016? Donald Trump. Well, that should be a democratic message with a vision of how to actually share prosperity with working people. Tim Ryan's doing it. John Fetterman's doing it.

I'd like to see everyone do that. John, that all may be true, but the issue in this governor's race in New York is crime, crime, crime. Every ad that Lee Zeldin puts up is about crime. Every rally and the rallies are growing. Ron DeSantis was in town a few days ago. He's having huge rallies. He's getting very close to the sitting governor in a blue state. He's talking about crime. Yeah, Glenn Young can also join him on the campaign trail. So, yeah, Republicans have made crime a central issue, Mr. Mayor, and you're

uniquely suited to talk about this. You've governed the nation's largest city for eight years, nation's largest police force. We know that to defund the police talking point, bogus. There are very, very few Democrats who support that. That said, Republicans have made headways on this issue. Crime is up and there are concerns about policing. There are concerns about district attorneys and people getting not getting out in the streets again, suspecting back on the streets. How can Democrats counter that message, which is proving very effective for Republicans? It is. People are fearful and there's really fair reasons that people feel it. The first thing for Democrats to do is to empathize.

The second thing to do is to say where we're going. You know, there's that adage in baseball, play the ball, don't let the ball play you. Right now, Republicans are the only ones with a clear message. And it's in many ways a specious message, but it is consistent. I would argue in a case in New York, for example, Kathy Hochul has an opportunity to say, here's where we're going next. And what next looks like to me is rebonding the relationship between police and community, funding community-based solutions to violence, like the violence interrupters. There are tangible things that actually are going to turn around crime. She and Eric Adams did a very good thing

by putting more police into the subways in the last few weeks. That's a step forward. But I think that vision piece has to be more than let's just talk about bail. That's not going to solve the crime issue bluntly. The question is, how do we do something on the ground? I would argue, closing argument has to be, I'm going to bring police and community back together. I'm going to support community members who are stopping violence, putting themselves forward. Here's how we're going to do it. So I want to bring George Conway back into the conversation. And I'm curious, George, as we listen to Bill de Blasio and others talk about what the Democrats

need to do, what the issues are that we should be debating in this election, the midterms one week away. You have election deniers that are running for office. We have Carrie Lake, who's, you know, using her closing message jokes about Nancy Pelosi's husband being attacked and getting a huge laugh from an audience that seems equally juiced up to be cruel. You have Ted Cruz on social media who's pushing conspiracy theories about Paul Pelosi and getting tens of thousands of laughs on the Internet, all based on all using this tragedy to get a moment out of it, a cruel moment. And, you know, we talk about democracy being at stake in these midterm elections,

and yet so many of these races are so close. So tough question, but what do you make of that? What I make of it is that people aren't concerned about abstract questions or even practical questions about the future of democracy. It's just not, you know, they're not political scientists, they're not psychologists, they're not sociologists. They worry about things that affect them on a daily basis. And that's what we saw.

You know, we see that in those numbers of crime, immigration, all sorts of things. And, you know, if this were an ordinary time, I'd still be a registered Republican and I'd vote Republican because mostly the Republican policies over the years have tended to what I would support. But today it doesn't matter anymore. None of that matters. George, would you vote for Herschel Walker? Would you say that's the issues that impact me? I'm going to pick this candidate. He is fit. Would you vote for him? No, but I mean, but that's the problem. I mean, the problem is we have reached this diseased state in the Republican Party where we're producing candidates. They're

producing candidates like that. And to me, I can't I can't kind of relate to this whole discussion in a weird way, because like to me, I'm a single issue voter now. And that single issue for me is, you know, whether or not, you know, whether or not you support democracy or whether or not you you stand up against disinformation. And it is scary. I mean, we saw that, you know, Steve had that board up there with 10 Senate races. Eight of them were under three and a half percent in their margins. And which means basically these races are are close to or within the margin of error. And, you know, we don't to anybody who says they know what's going to happen next Tuesday is just wrong. Although, you know, Wednesday morning, everybody's going to say, oh, well, it was obvious this was going to happen, whatever it was.

George Conway, thank you. That's for sure. Thank you. Nice closing note there. And former New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio, thank you as well. It's good to see you. And coming up, a federal judge clears the way for the January 6th committee to hear testimony from former chief of staff to Donald Trump, Mark Meadows. But an appeal might put any potential appearance before the panel out of reach. We'll explain why. Plus, a member of the House Select Committee, Republican Congressman Adam Kinzinger, will be our guest.

Also ahead, the latest on the war in Eastern Europe as Russia continues its attacks on key Ukrainian infrastructure. The National Security Council's John Kirby will join us live from the White House morning. Joe, we'll be right back.