Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/15/22

Episode Date: November 15, 2022

Democrat Katie Hobbs defeats MAGA favorite Kari Lake in high-stakes race for governor in Arizona

On Saturday, former President Trump's youngest daughter, Tiffany, got married at Mar-a-Lago. The only issue with the wedding, they were supposed to have a ton of seats, but somehow Trump lost them all. It was an emotional weekend for Trump because he gave away a daughter and the Senate on the same night on Saturday night. Now that so many of his candidates got creamed, Republicans are advising him to delay his announcement until after the Senate runoff in Georgia. And so he's going to announce tomorrow. Advisors to the former president claim he's eager to start attacking other potential GOP hopefuls, saying, I would expect him to come out swinging, which sounds scary at first. But remember, when he comes out swinging, it looks like this.

Another Trump-backed election denier falls, this time Carrie Lake in Arizona, as NBC News calls the governor's race there for Democrat Katie Hobbs. Lake has responded, but has not yet conceded. We'll have that and the reaction from Liz Cheney that has now gone viral. Plus, the new reporting that shows Donald Trump spent more money trying to defeat Republicans than he did in any single battleground state. Also, the new polling that shows Republicans in several key states have already moved on from Trump to Ron DeSantis for 2024. Donnie, we hardly knew ye.

We'll have those numbers for you. Also, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy tries to piece together support needed to become House Speaker, should Republicans win the majority? That apparently included an effort to get a powerful Democrat to switch sides. We'll have that new reporting as well. Wow. A lot going on this morning. A lot going on. And Arizona. Now, this is a state everybody talked about.

It was like the most extreme. Unbelievable. Yeah. No, it's incredible. And last night, Carrie Lake. Well, she should be conceding. But now she's decided, Willie, just to sort of do that thing, that denying thing. All of a sudden, everything is wrong with the election that she had. Well, everyone could have seen this coming. She was seeding the ground for many weeks and months and going back to the 2020 election,

actually saying that the elections are corrupt. They're not, of course. Katie Hobbs has been called the winner, the Democrat. And Joe, to your point, there were a lot of election deniers on the ballot across the country, but Arizona was the one that people were most worried about. Republicans had hoped from the top of the ticket on down to have election deniers in there so that in the 2024 election, and many of them said this out loud, they could call in to question the results and perhaps stop the certification of the results if Joe Biden or whoever runs for president wins in

the state of Arizona. Well, last night, the governor's race given to Katie Hobbs, the Senate race, Mark Kelly hangs on against Blake Masters, another election denier. The secretary of state race, perhaps the most concerning of all, Mark Fincham. He lost the Republican, an election denier. The attorney general race is still the only one that's out there, still too close to call. But up and down the ballot in Arizona, which turns out to be a snapshot of what happened across the country, election deniers were wiped out. And really, probably the most purple of all the states is a state that had voted for Republicans from Harry Truman through Joe Biden for president of the United States. And now Arizona, this this red hot red state goes blue and 18 goes blue in 20 goes blue in 22. It's hard to believe. But you look again,

you look at all of the Republican candidates that lost there. The constitutional offices in Arizona are most likely going to be all blue. Both senators in the state of Arizona. Blue. Democratic. Blue. The governor in the state of Arizona. Democratic. Blue. It really it's it's really gone from, again, the state that caused the most concerns for Democrats and independents and Republicans who care about democracy and fair and free elections to actually up and down the ballot. Yeah. The greatest example, a greatest example of how what Donald Trump was selling was poison for political candidates and that voters rejected Donald Trump and his denialism and his lying about American democracy and his attempt to tear down American democracy. How they rejected in the most dramatic of ways. We'll also have some new comments from Mike Pence, which are not so not so flattering for Donald Trump as well. Along with Joe, Willie and me, we have White House editor for Politico, Sam Stein, former chief of staff to the DCCC, Adrienne Elrod. She was senior aide to the Hillary Clinton and Biden presidential campaigns

and national political correspondent for Axios, Jonathan Swan. He will soon be joining the New York Times. Congratulations. Let's just say, Jonathan, because we love Axios, we don't consider this to be a promotion because Axios is great. We love the New York Times. You know, I love everybody. I will say this, though. It'll be nice for you not having to go into the office Monday morning when after the Packers have lost and Van de Heijs throwing things around the office with his cheese on his head and screaming and yelling. And then it makes Swan wear it. It's yeah. You don't have to do that anymore.

You can actually work. It's worse than you imagine. It's worse than making you wear the cheese head. I imagine it is. That's always why I want him to write. That's his first story at the time. Yeah. You might have to speak out.

As we said, the NBC News decision desk projects Democrat Katie Hobbs has defeated Republican Kerry Lake in the race to become Arizona's next governor. Last night, NBC's Steve Kornacki explained how the call was made. From that point forward, Kerry Lake's campaign and Republicans were all saying, just wait till you get to the same day drop off. The mail in ballots that people dropped off at the polls on Election Day. And again, there were 300,000 of them almost out of Maricopa County. And they said that's going to be what delivers this election to Carrie Lake.

That's they said was that was going to deliver the Senate race, they claimed, to Blake Masters. And we've just had three or four days now consecutively of updates that have included those ballots. And every time we've gotten them, the numbers have just not been there for Carrie Lake. So she was already in a position where she was, you know, she was throwing a Hail Mary pass here and she just did not get what she needed. Former local news television anchor turned right wing superstar Carrie Lake's embrace of former President Donald Trump launched her to the forefront of the far right's grievance politics. Lake has been claiming fraud since before winning her primary in August and has continued to sow doubt in the general election. Last night, after NBC News called the race for Hobbs, Lake tweeted, quote,

Arizonans know BS when they see it. Yes, they do. That was just... That's sort of a cell phone. She sets herself up as a straight man to all of Arizona. Yeah, you should have seen the tweets in response to that. We'll just leave it there. We'll leave it there. Carrie's very mad. I will. Yeah, it's pretty remarkable. So Sam Stein,

the Washington Post was reporting last night that over the weekend, Carrie Lake's team set up a war room. And the idea was to prepare her for this loss, hoping these people who obviously wanted to have a future in politics, that she wouldn't follow Donald Trump's script, that she wouldn't do, you know, come out and say the sort of things she said last night regarding election denying. And it just looks, you know, who knows, maybe she'll be at Mar-a-Lago tonight. But it's hard to believe that any politician that wants a future in the Republican Party or any party would embrace election denying. When you look how this is the most fertile ground politically Republicans were ever going to have. If you look at inflation, you look at the economy, you look at Biden's approval ratings, you look at gas prices. And yet the election deniers all rejected outright.

Yeah, I mean, it's it's a remarkable slate of defeats in a cycle that should have been theirs by historical standards. You know, there's a couple takeaways you can grab here. One is election denialism simply does not sell, especially if you're running to have key input and oversight over your state's elections. I don't think voters are very comfortable with the idea that you might destroy faith in democracy, simply put. The other thing that I've taken away is that, you know, sort of traditional politics actually does matter, right? A lot of these candidates who were put up for office had never actually interacted one-on-one with voters. Now, Lake may be an exception because she was a local TV anchor.

But a guy like Blake Masters had never really spent time with, you know, local union halls or local voters or trying to win office before. Hershel Walker, similar situation. This is a case where you actually want to have institutional knowledge of your state, of how democracy works, of how to meet and greet voters to turn them out. And celebrity candidates, yes, it worked for Trump, but maybe it cannot be replicated in every single state going forward. And that might be the lesson the Republican Party takes from this is that we need to get back to the basics. Well, and we don't even saying this time and again on this show that everybody thought after Ronald Reagan won two landslide victories,

they thought, oh, Reaganism, it's transferable to the next candidate. No, it's not. People like there have been people and Mike Pence is the latest example of been really bad imitators of what Ronald Reagan did and how he cocked his head. And they think that there's some magic. If there's not, it wasn't transferable. Barack Obama's coalition, not transferable. And the fact that Donald Trump can do what Donald Trump can do because he was a celebrity, because he fought with the New York Post and the Daily News and the New York Times throughout his entire life and figured out how to brawl with them and and and come. Well, I won't say come out on top, but just to survive day in and day out. Blake Masters doesn't know

how to do that. And I mean, Carrie Lake, OK, Carrie Lake was pretty good for what she did. But you know, being a local reporter in Arizona is a little different than than getting hammered by The New York Post and Daily News every day. If you're Donald Trump, the skill is not transferable, though. Carrie Lake, again, was better than than most of them in her political skill set. Adrienne, I think that what makes this such a such a stinging loss, I would think for Carrie Hobbs, Carrie Lake, Carrie Lake, for Donald Trump, for people who expected her to win is what Democrats were telling me a month out, which was Katie Hobbs. She's not the strongest candidate. Everybody, you know, I say that when I say something like that on the air, I don't say it on the air unless I'm hearing it from a ton of Democrats in Arizona. And I said,

she's not that strong of a candidate. She won't debate. We're trying to get her to debate. She won't go out on the campaign trail. She she she she's she's in hiding. And Democrats were very concerned about it. And I say the morning after she won, Carrie Lake lost. And I think that is the ultimate rebuke to Carrie Lake and the denialism. Even when you have a candidate that's not doing all the right things, that's not debating, that's not taking the campaign to the people of Arizona the way Democrats wanted her to, Carrie Lake still lost. Yeah, that's right, Joe. And look, you can debate, we can debate all day whether or not she should have debated. But whatever her

strategy was, it worked. And, you know, and she won. Exactly. She won and she won by, you know, it was a close race, but she won by a relatively as far as, you know, races in Arizona go a pretty comfortable margin. As we saw last night, we'll see how the rest of the votes come in that are the few that are remaining. But but look, I mean, I think Sam made such a really good point, which is a lot of voters are just want to get back to the basics. They want to have elected officials who represent them that are, you know, understand the state and have done all the work and have moved their way up through the system. They don't they're not looking for the flashy star. They're not looking for, you know, the Donald Trump acolyte. I think that's what we

saw here in Arizona. We certainly saw it across the country in different in different races. And, you know, you look, Joe, at the trajectory from 2016 when a lot of the American voters said we don't want an establishment candidate. We don't want someone who has served in public office for a long time. And you watch where we are now going back to 2022. It's almost like the pendulum has swung back to a desire and a need for people who have actually had experience, who have served in public service before, who know their state very well, who know their constituents and who are most importantly in it for the right reasons. So Jonathan Swan, in her attempt to mimic Donald Trump at every turn, Carrie Lake curiously made a closing argument that included attacking Arizona Republicans. She said, we don't have any McCain Republicans in here,

do we? This was November 4th. This is a closing argument at a rally. All right, get the hell out, she said to McCain Republicans. Arizona has delivered some losers, haven't they? Calling John McCain a loser. And here she is at CPAC back in August saying something along the same lines. We may have won this battle and I won an epic battle in Arizona. We drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine. Well, Jonathan Swan, that's one way to try to win statewide, to attack an American icon and a hero in the state of Arizona and the very set of voters you are going to need to win a close election. And you can see that because Republicans down ballot have done better than her. This is sort of puzzlement among Carrie Lake allies. You know, they're sort of like, how could this be?

How could this be? We're looking at the numbers and it seems that these fairly anonymous, milquetoast Republicans down ballot are outperforming us. How on earth? Well, there are still some McCain Republicans that live in Arizona. And she told them, was it get the hell out? You can understand that just from it. Forget ethics, morality, whatever. Just from a tactical point of view, you can understand that in a Republican primary in Arizona, there's a very energized Republican base in that state, which which despise John McCain. But to use that then in a general election, let alone four days before the election, it just makes no tactical sense.

So, yes. And I just just what people talk about before. I can't overstate to you how much the Trump Trump world was banking on Carrie Lake. She was their star. She was someone that they saw as potentially a vice presidential pick, potentially someone who could succeed him, run for national office, run for president down the track. She was someone they put a lot of chips into. And Trump world was fully behind her. His allies were campaigning for her. And so this is a really stinging loss for them, more so than actually any of the other gubernatorial losses across the country. And you look at her attacking John McCain. You look at her attacking a Republican icon. You look at her attacking voters who voted for a guy who was considered

to be a mainstream conservative slash moderate Republican who was extraordinarily successful in Arizona. And again, this this goes back to Trumpism not being transferable. Yes, Donald Trump goes back to the primary. It does go back to that, too. Donald Trump in a primary attacked John McCain and he survived in a primary. But, you know, what I've been saying for years is that politics is a game of addition and not a game of subtraction. At the beginning of the Trump era, there were several aides who got on TV and said some outrageous things. And I actually called them up, tried to help to listen. Politics is a game of addition, not subtraction. Stop attacking people. Stop attack. Try to bring people together. And Willie, I wasn't doing that. I say that to everybody. I don't I don't say say it to be a do-gooder.

That's how you actually get things done. That's how you actually get things accomplished. But people have drawn, Kerry Lake, the last of them, have drawn the wrong lessons from Donald Trump. Again, his skills aren't transferable. But here's the other thing. He lost the popular vote in 2016 by 3 million votes. He admitted to me personally after that election that the election could have been held in 10 days. He would have lost nine of those 10

days and everything just fell perfectly that one day. Then Trump Republicans lost in 2017 in off-year races. They lost in 2018 massively in off-year races. They lost in 2019, even losing governorships in Louisiana and Kentucky to Democrats. They lost in 2020. Let me say it again. Donald Trump, the only one-term president since Herbert Hoover to lose the House, the Senate and the White House in one term. And now perhaps the most stinging rebuke in 2022, they lost one race after another, after another that Donald Trump got involved in because they're trying to be mini Trumps. I would say it doesn't work for you. And if you look at the record, it doesn't work for Donald Trump. The guy is one and six right now. He is, you know, he is a pitcher to borrow Mitt Romney's phrase from last night. He's an old aging pitcher who wasn't really even good

back in his day. He's one in six. And and the party's been trying to model themselves after this guy. I don't understand. We've been and again, we've been saying it over and over again. And people are like, oh, well, you're just you used to be a Republican, but now you're a big talk about math. Just like just like Liz Cheney, who both of us have like a ninety five ACU rating, which I would just tell you, people knew how conservative that was. I would not be invited to events in Manhattan, the greater Manhattan Island, nor would Liz. But the thing is, I'm saying it because I want a strong Republican Party and a strong Democratic Party. I want a Republican Party that actually is invested in American democracy, like the Democratic Party that's invested in American democracy. This guy loses, Willie. And why do they keep following him? And are they going to follow him tonight? To your point, Joe, in swing state races, the major races where Donald Trump backed a candidate.

So we're talking about governor. We're talking about Senate. We're talking about secretary of state. Joe Lombardo won in Nevada. He became the governor of Nevada by 14000 votes. Ron Johnson held on to his seat by a slim margin in Wisconsin. And Herschel Walker is TBD. Otherwise, they all lost. Oh, they all lost. Donald Trump's candidates all lost. And remember, in Arizona, Doug Ducey, the Republican governor, won just four years ago by 14 points. It wasn't close. Now, in a bad year for Republicans, in a bad year for Republicans. And now Kerry Lake has handed that seat back to Democrats.

You mentioned Liz Cheney. We'll note she played a role in Carrie Lake's defeat as well. First, by saying this to a room full of college students at a forum last month in Arizona. I say this as somebody who, you know, my first vote I ever cast, I was 18 years old and I voted for Ronald Reagan. So for almost 40 years now, I've been voting Republican. I don't know that I have ever voted for a Democrat. But if I lived in Arizona now, I absolutely would. And for governor and for secretary of State. And I think, you know, we cannot be in a position where we elect people who will not fundamentally uphold the sanctity of elections. And I think that that's got to be,

you know, more important than anything else. So that was early October. Those comments, followed by an ad campaign funded by Cheney's Political Action Committee targeting Lake and Mark Fincham, also an election denier, who was the Republican nominee for secretary of state in Arizona. Fincham, as we mentioned, lost his election as well. At the time, Lake sarcastically thanked Cheney for the ad buy, claiming it had backfired and saying her team is now receiving more donations because of it. Well, after NBC News called the governor's race last night for Hobbs, Cheney responded to Lake on Twitter, writing, quote, You're welcome. So there you have it. Liz Cheney gets the last word in Arizona. Yes, she does. Carrie Lake just keeps setting herself up. I mean, and again, Sam Stein,

Arizonans know B.S. when they see it. And then setting Liz Cheney again. She is like, who was it? Abbott or Costello? I guess Costello is the straight man. She is the straight man for for Arizona. A good old Abbott and Costello reference on Morning Joe. A classic of the genre. Yes.

To your point, it's all about addition versus subtraction. If you spend the entire campaign telling people to get out, telling people that they're losers, begging off moderate Republicans or Republicans who just don't think like you, it becomes a lot harder to win. And I think

what Carrie Lake is waking up to today is that she did not, the big bet that she could just plow her way forward and energize enough MAGA Republicans in her state. Enough Liz Cheney haters, enough John McCain haters that it didn't work. And I think the Republican Party writ large is waking up to this idea that, you know, bullying your way through a primary may work, but bullying your way through a general election is a lot harder. Yeah. One last thing, Mick. I mentioned the swing states that Donald Trump lost in his endorsements. He did back J.D. Vance, though most people aren't considering Ohio a swing state anymore in the last few years. Yeah. A few other stories we're following this morning.

Police investigating the murders of four University of Idaho students and giving few details as to what happened. Officers found the victims, a man and three women, Sunday afternoon at an off-campus apartment. Yesterday, police identified them but did not give any more information. In an interview with the New York Times, the mayor of Moscow, Idaho, described it as a crime of passion. And the county coroner told the paper the deaths were not a result of a murder-suicide. Despite all that, investigators have said they do not believe there is any threat to the public. Former Tonight Show host Jay Leno was hospitalized for severe burns yesterday. Leno said he was in the garage where he stores all of his cars when one of them erupted into flames without warning, burning the left side of his face.

In a statement to NBC News, Leno said, quote, I got some serious burns from a gasoline fire. I'm OK. Just need a week or two to get back on my feet. And the FDA is warning of a rise in reports of children being accidentally poisoned by a popular cough medicine. A new study reveals that from 2010 to 2018, calls to poison control involving the drug benzonatate increased each year. It's commonly prescribed to treat coughs caused by colds or the flu. Inappropriate use of the drug can lead to serious health problems in children, including convulsions, cardiac arrest and death. Doctors are urging to use caution when prescribing the

medicine and parents are reminded to keep their prescription drugs out of the reach of children. And still ahead on Morning Joe, the latest from the G20 summit overseas, where world leaders today are putting the focus on the war in Ukraine and its global impact. Plus, GOP Senate candidate Herschel Walker calls out his party for deceptive fundraising practices. And his campaign seems to be looking specifically at former President Trump. Wait. Wait, I'm so confused.

How could you have ever known that Donald Trump would use your name to make money to take nine dollars and give you one dollar? We'll explain why. Also ahead, Pennsylvania Governor-elect Josh Shapiro is crediting his midterm win in part to his push to connect with voters in red and rural parts of the state. We'll talk to him about what the Democratic Party could learn from his successful campaign. And Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg is our guest this morning. You're watching Morning Joe. We'll be right back. It is half past the hour.

The G20 summit is underway in Indonesia with Russia's war in Ukraine and food insecurity concerns dominating the first day of meetings. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the world leaders virtually, telling them that Russia's war must end now. Joining us from Bali, the host of way too early White House peer chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire. Jonathan Lemire, it's so good to have you over there, given all the swirling crosshairs. So much going on. Geopolitically, it's so good to have you over there, given all the swirling crosshairs. So much going on. Geopolitically, it's absolutely remarkable what happened yesterday in China, what we expect between China, between Xi and Biden, what we expect today. And also given Indonesia's unique history and relationship to the G20 summit, Willie and I wanted to ask you, I think what's the most pressing question on most people's mind in Washington, D.C. right now is how in the hell did the commanders beat the Eagles last night?

It was concerned. You know, that was that was on early this morning here in Bali. It was the talk of the summit. The Eagles, of course, had been undefeated going into that game. And it's certainly an upset for the summit. The Eagles, of course, had been undefeated going into that game. And it's certainly an upset for the ages. It was the talk. Many delegations were going about that. But what actually the main event today, Joe, was the war in Russia. Vladimir Putin, not here. He skipped it. He sent his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who sat through, we should mention, President Zelensky's virtual address to the G20. And then

Lavrov got up, made his own speech. And, well, he went through the usual lies as to why Russia invaded Ukraine. We should note, though, that there had been talk of a widespread walkout among the other leaders when Lavrov did speak. That didn't happen. And it's reflective of the G20. Well, it's not the G7. The G7 are the seven wealthiest democracies. They kind of march. They've been marching in lockstep when it comes to supporting Ukraine in this war. The G20 is a different animal. And we can talk about President Biden and President Xi's meeting yesterday. But whether it's Saudi Arabia or India or China, these are countries that have provided economic lifelines to Russia during the

conflict and did not sign on to a declaration that condemned Russia's war. Phrasing instead aggression, Moscow really objected to the use of the word war, and the G20 has shied away from it, underscoring how there are some divisions here as to that conflict. You know, it's interesting, Jonathan, Joe Biden, obviously receiving a warm welcome at the G20. The most fascinating meeting, though, and obviously the one with the greatest implications long term was a meeting with the president and President Xi. It's hard to hard to think back to a time when our relations with China were as low as they they they were going into the summit. I would guess, though, given the outcome, the White House has to be pleased.

China is cautiously optimistic about being able to manage its relationship with the United States in a positive term. And even the front page of China's state paper showing a picture of Xi and President Biden warmly embracing, smiling for the cameras. Is the White House pleased with how that meeting went? They are. They feel like there's been a little bit of a thaw in what many fear could eventually become a Cold War. We heard from President Biden at his news conference yesterday after the three-hour summit with President Xi. He says a Cold War is not inevitable. He also said, we heard from both him and Xi Jinping, both leaders of the world's two superpowers said they need to find common ground. They need to find places of agreement. And they did find a few. They've restarted talks on climate change. Senior advisors from Beijing and Washington are going to start being in regular

contact again. That had stopped after Speaker Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in August. So these are small but important steps. But there are certainly still areas of disagreement, too, on trade, on, as mentioned, the war in Ukraine on intellectual property and most of all, Taiwan. And both parties put out statements yesterday saying their positions have not changed. China is basically telling the U.S. back off. Taiwan is ours. We'll do what we want with it. That remains, of course, a concern going forward.

But right now, a building block of a relationship was reestablished. White House very pleased with that. And there's a sigh of relief among the global community that that was able to happen here. So, Jonathan, stay with us as we bring into the conversation the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass, and staff writer at The Atlantic, Ann Applebaum, who we have a lot to talk about with today. Richard, let's start with China, though. Obviously, expectations could not have been much lower than they were. And yet it seems that the White House and President Xi got something out of the meeting that they wanted. And that was at least a conversation and understanding of where the guardrails were in this relationship and perhaps

the possibility of positive next steps? Yeah, sometimes in foreign policy, Joe, it's not what you achieve, it's what you avoid. I think both the United States, for obvious reasons, want to avoid the Taiwan issue leading to an actual conflict. So what they did was put a floor under what had been a deteriorating or even plummeting relationship. All good. Some slight disappointments. The Chinese did not, for example, talk about North Korea. They have tremendous leverage over North Korea. If they were ever to use it, they clearly choose not to. The language on Russia was a little bit disappointing. The Chinese in their statement did not single out Russia really for criticism or talk about why nuclear weapons ought not to be used.

But that said, what Jonathan reported is spot on. There was something almost reassuring, traditional, normal about the whole meeting. Leaders of countries that are fundamentally competitive disagree on most issues, still shaking hands, talk about the importance of limiting the competition, potentially finding some areas where they could do at least limited cooperation. Again, it seemed like good old fashioned diplomacy. Yeah, Richard, as you and I looked at the front pages of the papers in front of us this morning, you said that almost looks normal, a return to normalcy there. As Jonathan Lemire pointed out, they are whispering to each other's ears about the commanders and eagles last night. Is Jalen Hurts elite?

And they didn't come to a conclusion on that. That conversation will continue. Let's talk about Russia, though. Vladimir Putin, not at the G20. Sergei Lavrov was there. He sat in the audience and watched a zoomed in address from President Zelensky of Ukraine. What is that dynamic like inside the room and out of it? There's still a reluctance to take on the Russians frontally here. It's disappointing, but not surprising. The Indians, the Chinese, the Saudis, many others, they're hedging their bets. So you still have what we call the West that's lining up pretty squarely for Ukraine, providing economic, military, diplomatic support. But a lot of the rest of the world is kind of sitting on the sidelines, one way or another, helping Russia buying its oil. The good news is the Chinese and

others are not providing Russia with military equipment. And I think it reinforces the sense, Willie, that the outside world will not change now the fundamental dynamics of this war. It looks like a long war. I think we're not just going into winter. It's not clear to me either side can defeat the other side one clearly in a military sense. I don't think the rest of the world is going to change that balance fundamentally. So I think the real question is whether, again, the West can play this for the long term in terms of helping Ukraine. But I thought what this tells us is the world doesn't much like this war, but isn't going to do a whole lot about it. Jonathan Swan has the next question. Jonathan. And there are some disagreements within the Biden administration, as you'd expect,

about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, particularly between the Pentagon and the State Department. Senior levels of the Pentagon are more eager to try to get Putin and Zelensky to a table to negotiate than the State Department are. And then, of course, Bill Burns, the CIA director, is doing some very quiet diplomacy as well. Talk about the diplomatic element of this and where you see that heading. Is this fantasy land or do you think there is prospect in the next month or two for something to for there to be a breakthrough? So to be clear, there have been negotiations the whole time. There have been under the table conversations. There have been conversations in Turkey, even the Ukrainians and the Russians talk

about prisoner exchanges. So this isn't quite the diplomatic breakthrough that people are making it out to be. The real question is, what would be the moment when negotiations would be useful and when they would end the war for good? And that moment, I think, has not arrived yet. And as far as I know, the White House doesn't think it's arrived yet, because that moment comes when the Russians understand that the war was a mistake and they begin to pull their troops out. And they understand that Russian imperialism has had its day and it's over. And that's really the only way we can have a

complete end of the conflict. In other words, it's not just a ceasefire, not just people stop fighting for a few months and then they start again in the summer or next year. When there's a really permanent change, then we can have a conversation and we could be getting closer to that. I certainly hope so. Hey, Jonathan, it's Richard here. I'm curious what the reaction is in Bali among people to American politics. How do they take what happened with the midterms? Do they see Biden now as stronger? How do they take the possibility of Trump announcing? What's the overall, do they see us essentially as having gone back to normal, to use the word we just

used in a different context? Or are they still worried about what they see going on in the United States? Diplomats that I've spoken to, Richard, as well as a number of Biden senior officials, have all relayed, they've been surprised, actually, how much international interest there was here in the American midterm elections. President Biden has said a number of world leaders said they were watching the balance of the Senate get decided for Democrats. President Biden was in Cambodia, his previous stop, when that happened. And there is a sense of relief that there is a sense of normalcy here. They watched that election deniers, largely, certainly the big name ones, all went down to defeat. And President Biden is projecting that. We heard from him yesterday saying, well, that's

an example that American democracy still works. That's who we are still about. And therefore, our allies can be reassured by that, that we are still who we are, that Trump was the blip. But, of course, Trump looms all over this summit here in Bali. There is a sense there has been all along that the Russians, the Chinese, perhaps even the Saudis, have all been sort of trying to wait Biden out, thinking perhaps Trump or a Trump-like figure could return to power in 2024, be easier to deal with. Biden, of course, is sending a signal that's not going to be the case. But with Trump's likely announcement coming later tonight, suddenly he'll be center stage again.

And there'll be an unease among allies. Like, hey, America's back. We can count on them now. Will that last after these next two years? Jonathan Lemire reporting live for us from Bali. Thank you very much for your reporting and analysis. And Anne, your new piece for The Atlantic is entitled The Russian Empire Must Die. Tell us what you mean by that. We've had generations of Russian reformers, Russian liberals, but none of them really understood that the source of violence and the source of totalitarianism inside Russia has always been the empire, that the Russian need to expand, to dominate their neighbors, to Russify their neighbors, to carry out the kinds of war crimes and brutality that we've seen in Ukraine, that's always had terrible implications for Russia as well. It meant that Russians themselves lived in terrible fear and hardship. And this is the moment for Russians to begin to say, right, it's time for the empire to end. It's time for there to be a deep political change.

And my argument, my article argues that that's not impossible. You know, we have this idea that nations are somehow condemned to be one way or the other, you know, that there's something in the Russian DNA or the water that makes them the way they are. That's not true. Nations can change. They do sometimes change. There are Russians inside the country and many, many, many more outside the country who want that change. And we should be prepared for it and we should want it to happen. inside the country and many, many, many more outside the country who want that change. And we should be prepared for it and we should want it to happen. So what does that look like to you? So, you know, I mean, I can't I can't predict the future, but there's you know, there's the

possibility inside Russia of a change of heart, of a of an anti-war movement. There's a possibility of inside the elite people beginning to say, do we really want this war? We don't want our sons dying in it. We don't want our economy destroyed by it. You could begin to have pressure for a different kind of leader or for a different, even just a different policy. You're already hearing some of it. A part of the Russian national security elite is already openly anti-Putin and has been very critical of the way the war has been conducted. That's a piece of the story so far, that that's a new element. And it's actually probably one of the reasons why Putin probably

held his mobilization drive to get more people to fight was because of pressure from that group. So we know there's conflict inside the system. We just need it to we just need it to continue. All right. The Atlantic, San Apple bomb, as always. Thank you so much for being with us. And Richard, thank you for staying as well. Willie Geist, it's now time for our weekly CFR fantasy football report. And let's talk about what happened last night for a minute. Everybody not only inside the Council of Foreign Relations, inside Washington, D.C., but obviously the G20 Summit, Indonesia, all. Well, the vision of the world, of at least the existing order in the NFC East shattered, Willie.

Your New York Giants, 7-2, only one game behind the Eagles. What happened last night? Yeah, an emergency session of the Philadelphia City Council has been called for early this morning. We'll bring that to you live just as soon as I get started. Yeah, the Eagles lost to Washington. They lost at home to Washington. They just didn't play well. They fumbled, Hurts threw an interception.

He still could be the MVP of the league, but they played poorly. The 72 Miami Dolphins now are safe for another MVP of the league, but they played poorly. The 72 Miami Dolphins now are safe for another year as the last undefeated NFL team. But the New York Giants, Richard Haas, neither you nor I saw this coming. We liked the new coach. We thought maybe Jones would have a better year this year with a better offensive line. But seven and two and one game behind the Eagles in the NFC East. Seven and two. The Giants still have two games coming up against the Eagles, a game against the Cowboys. Giants have, I think I read the other day, the fourth toughest schedule for the rest of the season. But any of us would have, if you had offered us seven and two. Wouldn't have believed you. Yes, this is a great start. And

for New York, we need something we can embrace here. It's been a rough year here in New York sports-wise. Yeah, we only made it to the ALCS. That one hurt. Yeah need something we can embrace here. It's been a rough year here in New York sports-wise. Yeah, we only made it to the ALCS. That one hurt. Yeah, that one really did hurt. So, Alex, do we have any highlights from the game last night that we can just show people so we act like we're a top-tier news organization? Okay, so here's some random video.

Washington is in white, and the guys in the green are the Eagles. There's Jalen Hurts throwing a pass to number 15 who fumbles the ball. Come on, what is this? So there we have Jalen Hurts certainly looking like an MVP candidate there. But the Eagles, of course, he's really sad. And as I didn't know, because I go to sleep at 6 o'clock every night right before Wheel of Fortune starts, the Eagles damaging their own prospects with one turnover after another. A lot of face masking going on there.

And, of course, here's Jalen Hurts again. Pushed up against his own. Look at this. A little dipsy doodle, as we like to call it in Catholic high school. Only to lead to another commander's touchdown. It appears the coming demise of Vladimir Putin, as well as Dan Snyder, bringing nothing but hope to these plucky Washington commanders. Back to you, Willie.

Joe, the executives at ESPN got back uncharacteristically quickly on a job interview and have said you did not get the job to Anchor Sports Center. I'm sorry to pass that on. Exactly. All right. Coming up, it appears the Republicans will take control of the House by a slim margin. But what's not clear is if Kevin McCarthy has enough votes to become House Speaker. We'll get the latest reporting on that.

It looks messy. Plus, another Republican lawmaker says Donald Trump should hold off announcing a third presidential campaign. We'll play for you those comments just ahead on Morning Joe. Will you stay? Welcome back. Good morning, Joe. 652. Washington waking up to a far different world than it thought it'd be waking up to a week ago. And Donald Trump once again talking about running for president, kind of like Harold Strassen, who said that deciding to run for president wasn't the hard part. It was stopping running for president.

Yeah. That was the hard part. The Wall Street Journal calls it Donald Trump's presidential rerun. The context there. Harold ran in 64, 68, 72. You don't even care. 76. He just kept running and kept losing. And now here we have Donald Trump,

the hero assassin of 21st century. So anyway, let me begin this right now. Three, two, one. All right. Donald Trump's presidential rerun by the Wall Street Journal editorial page. And they write this in part, last week's election showed

that clinging to 2020 election denial, as Mr. Trump has, is a loser's game. Republicans who took this line to win his endorsement nearly all lost. The country showed it wants to move on, but Mr. Trump refuses. Perhaps he just can't admit to himself that he was a loser. Mr. Trump will carry all of that baggage and more into a 2024 race that GOP and the country would be best served if Mr. Trump ceded the field to the next generation

of Republican leaders to compete for the nomination in 2024. If Mr. Trump insists on running, then Republican voters will have to decide if they want to nominate the man most likely to produce a GOP loss and total power for the progressive left. Jonathan Swan, I mean, your interview served as a perfect example of how

Donald Trump often was disconnected with reality. Another run here in an extraordinarily bad political environment for him would seem to be the least constructive thing for him to do for himself, for his political future, for the party. And yet we hear that he's moving forward tonight. What can you tell us? Yeah, he's moving forward tonight against the advice of many of his key advisers. He has just, in their judgment, in some of their judgment, this is not a universal view, suffered his worst political damage among GOP primary voters since the January 6th attack on the Capitol. There are new polls coming out by the day. We had one in Texas with a huge swing, DeSantis up against Trump. These are head-to-head polls. The Club for Growth, the conservative group,

has released polls in multiple states showing DeSantis has moved into a lead against Donald Trump. Obviously, these polls are early. This is a snapshot of a moment in time. But many of his advisers wanted him to delay the announcement until after the Georgia runoff, given that right now he's at potentially his weakest point that he's been in since the January 6th riot. And he's going to get up there on stage tonight and announce this campaign. He wanted what his vision of all of this was claim credit for sweeping victories in the House and the Senate and then demand shows of loyalty and fealty across the party. Trump thought that he was going to be in a position of strength coming

out of the midterms and be able to say, listen, I want all of you to pick a side. He can't do that anymore. You've seen a couple of people like Elise Stefanik, who's very ambitious and I'm told wants to be his vice presidential pick. She's come out and endorsed him. But many have held back, even staunch Trump allies have held back from endorsing him in the wake of the disastrous midterm election results. You know, the Democrats have to be thrilled. They really have to be thrilled. The Wall Street Journal talks about this a good bit, that he's playing right into the hands of the Democratic Party. He's allowed the Democrats. That's what they really want. You know, he really was a Democrat from the get go.

I know. I mean, he knows he helped the Democrats won in that's what they really want. You know, he really was a Democrat from the get-go. I know. I mean, he helped the Democrats win in 2018. Doesn't make sense. He helped the Democrats win in 2020. He helped the Democrats win in a big way in 2022. If he's on the ballot in 2024, he will help the Democrats win again in 2024. The fourth time will be the charm. This will be, I mean, this will be so historic. One person has not caused this much damage to the Republican Party since FDR.

Jonathan Swan. Thank you very much. Sam Stein. We'll see you back tomorrow morning. Hosting way too early. Thank you very much. Sam really starts the morning. He does. Yeah. It's just kind of like just eases into it. You know, I do it again. So proud. Don't make Swan laugh. Oh, my God. Can't do that. OK.