Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/22/23

Episode Date: November 22, 2023

Israel and Hamas agree to hostage deal, pause in fighting

You know, it's like a Russian wallet. We are waiting to see who will come back home. It's crazy. We don't have names yet, only speculations that it's going to be mothers and their children. And it's tough, very tough. Have you allowed yourself to think about what you might say to her the first time you see her?

I don't think I will speak. I will just hold her and hug her. And I won't ask questions. That's for sure. And I just want to hold her. That is the mother of a hostage who is being held by Hamas right now. She may soon see her daughter following a significant diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East.

There's a tentative deal to release dozens of people who were captured by the terrorist group more than six weeks ago. We're going to get a live report from Tel Aviv in just a moment. This all comes as the U.S. military is becoming more aggressive in its response to attacks against service members in the wider region.

Retired four-star Navy Admiral James DeVredis joins us with expert analysis on that and much more. Also ahead, we're going to go through the new Donald Trump dilemma for Democrats. Party officials seem to be shifting their strategy on how much coverage they want the former president to receive. Not that they have a say. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It's Wednesday, November 22nd. We begin with that breaking news. Israel and Hamas agreeing to a deal to release some of the hostages kidnapped during last month's deadly terrorist attack. Qatar, which has been mediating the negotiations, made the announcement last night.

The terms of the agreement include a four-day pause in fighting. During that time, 50 women and children will be released in stages. In exchange, 150 Palestinian women and children who are being detained in Israel will be freed. More humanitarian aid will also be allowed into Gaza during the pause in fighting, including fuel trucks. All of this is likely to begin tomorrow once Israeli judges review any potential legal challenges to the prisoner release. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office confirmed the agreement last night in a statement explaining that if the pause in fighting is extended, an additional 10 hostages will be released a day. But Netanyahu warns his

country's mission is not over, writing Israel will, quote, continue the war in order to return home all of the hostages, complete the elimination of Hamas and ensure that there will be no new threat to the state of Israel from Gaza. Joining us now from Tel Aviv, NBC News chief international correspondent Keir Simmons with more. Keir. Well, I think it's a sign of the political and national angst here in Israel that it took nine hours of meetings of the Israeli government for Israel to decide that it would sign up to this four-day pause. Now, it may extend. At this point, what we understand about the deal

is that there will be 50 hostages, women and children, civilians released in exchange for 150 Palestinian women and children released from Israeli jails, that there will be a pause in drone flights over Gaza, that there will be humanitarian aid, including fuel, a lot of it, maybe three to four hundred trucks going in to Gaza. So the deal is now pretty clear. It's been mediated by Qatar and Egypt and overseen by the U.S. And overnight, actually in the early hours of this morning, President Biden praising those by Qatar and Egypt and overseen by the US. And overnight, actually in the early hours of this morning,

President Biden praising those two countries, thanking Prime Minister Netanyahu, who pushed through this deal overnight with that message that you described, Mika, of saying that if just because there's a pause, it won't mean that the war is over, pushing it through with his Likud party and pushing it through with his Likud party and

pushing it through despite the objections of the right in the Israeli government. But as your sound at the beginning of this in our interview showed, for the families, the situation is pretty much the same. They are still waiting, waiting, waiting. We had a chance to speak to the great aunt of Abigail Moadan, the fat three-year-old American Israeli hostage who that family hoped her parents would kill, but the rest of her family just hoped that she will be released in time for her fourth birthday on Friday. Take a listen. I think about her brother and sister who both watched their parents be murdered on October 7th and Abigail coming home for them, for the grandparents, for the family, for's turning four. And to just imagine that she comes home and is with her family is our light right now in such a very dark and terribly, terribly horrific period. And Mika Hamas is saying that that pause will begin tomorrow at 10 a.m. here.

That hasn't been officially announced yet. The Israelis have put out a list of the Palestinians they plan to release from prison. And it is up to the victim, people who view themselves as victims of those prisoners, to go to the Supreme Court if they object to those Palestinians being released. But I think it's partly also just a moment to reflect, isn't it, that 1,200 Israelis and others died in those terror attacks on October 7th, that according to the health ministry controlled by Hamas, we are now at more than 14,000 people killed in Gaza. And right now what we have is a four-day pause in which Hamas has attained the release of 150 prisoners. NBC's Keir Simmons, thank you very much. And Joe, I mean, this deal, it's not perfect, but it provides a tiny glimmer of hope in what has been a brutal six weeks. It provides so much hope for Israelis

that have seen their families kidnapped, thrown into tunnels. And there is there has been debate in Israel over whether this was a deal that was worth giving a terrorist organization who seized children, some as young as six months from their homes and and and and women, family members and kidnapped them and threw them under tunnels, all knowing, again, all knowing this day would come. This is a Wall Street Journal. I want to read from Wall Street Journal editorial this morning on the Israel Hamas hostage deal. And this is what they say. The hostage deal that Israel and Hamas reached today is going to spare the lives of some 50 Israelis. And that is a great relief to the innocents and their families. The cost is a short-term ceasefire that Hamas will exploit, and three-quarters of the 236 hostages will remain in terrorist hands. Israeli leaders believe the trade is worth it, and that is not our place to second-guess their judgment. In exchange for returning Israeli children and women, 12 or 13 a day, Hamas is set to

receive a four-day pause in Israeli military operations and the release of about 150 of its under 18 female operatives from Israeli prisons. During the ceasefire, Israel will allow more fuel and aid into Gaza. The pause might also extend longer if Hamas gives up more hostages, 10 for each additional day. The deal again shows the moral gulf between the two sides. Hamas kidnapped Israeli children as young as nine months to use as hostages and spring its jihadists who have been arrested or convicted in a fair trial for their crimes. Israel takes military risks to save its citizens. Hamas risks Palestinian civilians to save itself. Let's bring in right now the former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, retired four-star Navy Admiral James Trevitas. He's a chief international analyst for NBC News, also NBC

News senior executive editor of National Security, David Rhoad, columnist and associate editor for The Washington Post, David Ignatius, and the host of Way Too Early and White House bureau chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire. Admiral, let me begin with you. Of course, like The Wall Street Journal says, an extraordinarily happy day for Israel and these children of Israel. Let me just ask you as a military commander, what are your concerns? Number one, the resupply, which Hamas will take enormous advantage of. They'll bring in ammunition, command and control devices. They'll bring in fuel. All of that is simply unavoidable. Number two, it gives a psychological boost to Hamas. In other words, they will say in their council of war,

look, our plan is working. We gathered up these Israeli civilians and now we'll parcel them out like chips at a casino to get what we want back, which is a break in combat operations. And then thirdly, the Hamas will use this period of time to move their fighters around through these tunnels. So I'm absolutely thrilled to see this deal go through as a human being, as a military officer. You have to recognize the downside. And I know that the Israeli military high command is going to grapple with that. They'll do everything they can to neutralize these factors. They will then continue. And Joe, I'll close with this. The principal military objective here is rescuing hostages, finding and eliminating the top ranks of Hamas. But the physical military objective are those tunnels. 300 miles of these tunnels, it's given Hamas its reason to live, its ability.

You're showing them now. Multiply that by hundreds of miles under Gaza itself. The Israelis are not going to stop this operation before they eliminate the military capability of those tunnels. So bottom line for the Israeli military, a lot of work ahead and everyone will celebrate. And it's Thanksgiving Day here in America tomorrow. I think we'll see some hostages come home. But boy, militarily, it's a tough one. Yeah, an extraordinary day personally for these families, military, militarily. It has to be a tough one because think about this.

I mean, Hamas, Hamas has not only played Israel, they've played the world like a fiddle from the very beginning. They knew all of this flee back to Gaza. They knew before the attacks were launched that they would hide behind civilians. Israel would try to bring justice to the people who killed their grandmothers and who shot their children and burned their babies in their cribs, raped their women. Hamas knew that Israel would then go after them. So they did what Hamas always does. They hid behind civilians. Hamas also knew before this began that at some point they would strike a deal to give hostages back and do it through Qatar. They knew this beforehand and they knew that Israel would have to do it. Why? Because, well, Israelis, like so many others outside of Hamas, value life. And so they're going to do it. But make no mistake, Hamas knew this was going to happen. They knew this day was coming and they knew that they would be able to refuel,

rearm, reload during any ceasefire that was given to them. So that, of course, is all balanced, David Rode, with the fact that 50 hostages are going free. 50 families are going to see their children and their mothers, their daughters, their family members again that they never thought they would see again. It's it's it's a hell of a balance. But what an extraordinary day for these families. It's it's awful, but it's sort of welcome to the horrific world of hostage taking. Hamas is monstrous. This the scale of this kidnapping. This has never happened. More than roughly 230 people kidnapped, elderly people. This three-year-old American girl, Abigail, who will hopefully be freed as part of this deal. So it's horrible.

This will benefit Hamas militarily in the short term. But I do think Hamas will be crushed. I think those tunnels will be destroyed. I've been surprised at the success of the Israeli military in terms of taking control of North Gaza. They've lost dozens of troops. That's a terrible, terrible price. But Hamas has not been putting up this tremendous house-to-house, you know, block-by-block resistance that was expected. That's one small positive thing. And again, I think on one level, this is is a good thing for the Biden administration.

They pushed hard for this hostage release. And I think in the long term, it will help Israel. It was mentioned by Akir Simmons, our colleague. Again, the Palestinian death toll has reached 14000. There's an estimated 5000 Palestinian children who've died. So, you know, the region, the Arab street, which is furious and only focuses understandably in some ways on those Palestinian deaths. This is a good thing for Israel. And just lastly, this is what happens when the world sort of ignores problems and lets groups like Hamas fester. I'm part of a group of former hostages that are sort of, how do we stop this accelerating practice of hostage taking? And part of it is eliminating or

not allowing this sort of radical groups like Hamas to have these enclaves, to have areas where they can take hostages. So it's a good day, a good small step forward, but a huge challenge remains. No doubt about that. David Ignatius, you and I both did some reporting as to how this all came together. Biden officials last night believing that this was proof that their approach has been working, applying subtle pressure on Israel. And, of course, also within Israel, Netanyahu getting intense domestic pressure, particularly from the families of the hostages, to make some sort of agreement, even over some objections of some military commanders. So, David, take us take us behind closed doors here about how this deal came together and what third parties were involved. So, Jonathan, I want to just start with the human dimension of this. When you read the testimony of

a woman like Mayan Zin, who has two daughters who've been who've been held, saying, I want to go to Gaza to die with them. I can't bear the life that I'm living separated from them. You can't help but rejoice that some of these children and mothers are coming out. It's a really extraordinary achievement. And people are working very hard on it. I'm struck by several aspects of it. First, when this war began, Israel was just so shocked and stunned by what Hamas had done that there was a feeling we've got to go all the way, all out combat.

We just have to put the hostages aside in our mind and go after the tunnels. There may be hostages in the tunnels. We just have to pound, pound, pound. And I think week by week, as the hostage families became clearer and louder, as their pictures, if you travel around Tel Aviv, the pictures are everywhere. Travel down the roads toward Gaza, every settlement has got pictures of its hostages displayed. There was a realization for the government that they were going to have to think of a way, as they pursued this war against Hamas, to also get hostages out.

What they've created in this deal that's interesting is a positive dynamic where the more hostages Hamas releases, the longer the pause it will get. And so in the initial phase, the 50 women and children that Hamas actually holds, it can identify them, it can describe each person in detail, will come out over four days. There are another 20 that they think they can get pretty easily. They don't hold them, but they think they can get them in the next few days. So if they get and release those additional 20, they will get a further pause. There are then another 30 women and children that are going to be harder to get. Can they find them and get them out? Well, maybe. And then Israel's holding out the promise. What about male civilians? Can you get them? For each of them, we're prepared to add additional pauses, additional humanitarian aid.

So Israel's created a dynamic that's going to put the hostages and their release first. I don't think, to speak to Admiral Stavridis' correct question, that Israel in any way is altering its fundamental determination to destroy Hamas's political power, but has chosen a route that is going to, to the greatest extent possible, get these Israeli citizens and foreigners out if it's possible, if Hamas can be convinced to do this more for more exchange. And of course, Admiral, we never know where all of this leads. We never know what at the end brings down Hamas, other than the Israelis and others who hate terrorism, continue fighting them. But, you know, the passing of Rosalind Carter, of course, brings into sharper focus the legacy of Jimmy Carter.

Again, a legacy that, much like Truman, will grow through the years with historians, with an extraordinary Middle East peace process, the normalization of relations with China, the aiding of Afghanistan in beating the Soviets, driving the Soviets out, the promotion of human rights that eventually led to, you know, help lead to the fall of the Soviet Union and the ramping up of the military in this last year. I say that, I'll just say, when you look back at Jimmy Carter, a dark mark on his presidency was the Iranian hostage crisis. I must say, looking back, though, all these years later, it's remarkable the restraint Jimmy Carter showed and not responding to every call for an invasion

or turning Iran into a parking lot, which if anybody was around America in 1979, that was the common that was a common refrain. Turn Iran into a parking lot, destroy them. And if hostages die, hostages die. This cannot stand. And yet I saw a documentary and I went away from it going, my God, the restraint he showed, he may be one of the only presidents we've ever had that had the humanitarian instincts to actually save every one of those lives. And that's why what may not make military sense today may make a lot of sense 10 years from now. Speak. I know I've gone on a bit on this, but I know you understand this. Speak to this, if you will, about how everything that seems so clear today may not be so clear even five years from now. Oh, I'd love to. And just one quick note of before the presidency and after the

presidency. I think, you know, this show, but he is our Naval Academy graduate who became president. So all of us Annapolis graduates and military naval officers, very proud of Jimmy Carter, who was a nuclear submariner. And I think we can all agree what an extraordinary post-presidency life, full of character, writing beautiful books, building homes. So really a sterling life lived. In terms of the hostage situation, yes, I agree with you. In retrospect, perfectly handled in so many ways. And by the way, let's not forget, he did something that the Israelis, I think, may attempt, which is hostage rescue. He launched a hostage rescue attempt that failed. Fortunately, the United States military was able to learn lessons from that and pull back from it. But he then pursued the diplomacy that you see occurring right here. And to your point, Joe, he resisted that urge to simply go in and flatten Tehran.

And by the way, I know David Ignatius, having traveled recently in the region, in the immediate aftermath will tell you Israelis were saying, go into Gaza, simply flatten it, destroy the entire thing. They chose not to. They chose to take this path using precision approaches to include special forces. The only reason Hamas did not kill seven million Jews on the 7th of October is because they lacked the military capability to do so. Israel could have killed 2 million Gazans on October 8th, killed them all. They chose not to because that's not who they are. And those, I think, are something we should bear in mind is the false equivalency you sometimes hear.

You know, Admiral Sturveed, as you were speaking about the mood in Israel, I'm just remembering what I heard. There was, after October 7 and continues to this day, a deep rage. It seems everybody in Israel knew somebody, knew a family that had been touched by this, had lost a person killed or taken hostage. Everywhere I went in Israel, I kept encountering that. And there was a desire to flatten Gaza, just to go all out. And I think what we're seeing in these recent days is that, as I said earlier, the passion to save the hostage lives has been competing with this desire to really go after and destroy the power of the enemy. And with this hostage release, Israel has decided it's going to pull back.

It's going to slow down. It's offensive. Something that's hard to do in this situation where you've got the momentum, you're moving forward. But you say, we're going to slow down. It's offensive. Something that's hard to do in the situation where you've got the momentum, you're moving forward. But you say, we're going to slow down. We're going to create an incentive to release as many hostages as possible. Don't think for a moment that the Israelis have stopped in their campaign against Hamas. I promise you're talking to Israelis yesterday. They still have the most ambitious and intense plans, but they do want to get as many

Israelis as possible out before we get to the end game of this war. As we close the conversation here, David, any thoughts given everything that has been said? And also in this deal, what stands out to you? Is there any way of assessing the status of the remaining hostages if the first 50 are released in waves? There'll be no men. Another American citizen, there's 10 Americans, Hirsch Goldberg Pollens, his hand was blown off when a Hamas militant threw a hand grenade into a shelter where a bunch of, he was one of the young people at the music festival. I hope he's released. I'm not sure he will be. So a joyous day for some families, but not all the families and just so much pain. So much pain.

You know, Jonathan Lemire, before we go, we should state what is obvious to those of us around the table, but may not be obvious to those at home watching. What an integral role the Biden administration played in all of this, working with allies in the region, same with obviously Anthony Blinken and of course Jake Sullivan, the entire national security team so engaged in this since the morning of October the 7th. But here we see again what an oversized role Joe Biden and his team have played in Israel since this crisis began. There's no question. President Biden, just in the days after the attack, went to Israel, wrapped his arms literally around Benjamin Netanyahu, a man with whom he's had significant differences over the years, and pledged steadfast support for Israel as to what would come next. And by doing so, by holding him so tight,

officials say the plan was also to create the ability to sort of guide him, instruct him, warn him, chide him if necessary. And we have seen that in recent weeks, the talk there and Cutter played a key role in this, brokering some of these negotiations, making, keeping the cell of advisors small as to who was working on this. And that included Jake Sullivan, some of his deputies, as well as, of course, the tireless efforts of the secretary of state and the Biden administration. They feel they feel like this is evidence that at least their approach to this point has worked. Some of these hostages knock on wood coming home in the next couple of days.

And also they've been able to restrain Israel to at least a degree in how they hit back in Gaza. But of course, they also and some senior officials told me this last night, though there was a sense of quiet relief that this first part of the deal is done. A lot of work remains. And there are so many hostages still being held in Gaza. Retired Admiral James Tavridis, NBC's David Rode and The Washington Post's David Ignatius. Thank you all very much for your insight and analysis this morning. We really appreciate it. And still ahead on Morning Joe, a conversation on Donald Trump's authoritarian rhetoric and whether bringing more attention to it is the correct strategy for Democrats.

Plus, Ron DeSantis just picked up a key evangelical endorsement in Iowa. We'll show you what the religious leader had to say about supporting the Florida governor over the former president. You're watching Morning Joe. We'll be right back. We pledge to you that we will root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and the radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country. The threat from outside forces is far less sinister, dangerous and grave than the threat from within. Donald Trump echoing the words of 20th century authoritarians at a rally earlier this month. Joining us now, NBC News national Affairs Analyst John Heilman, special correspondent at Vanity Fair and the host of the Fast Politics podcast, Mala Jung Fast,

and political correspondent at The New York Times, Michael C. Bender. For his latest piece, he wrote about Trump's tilt, tilt, toward authoritarianism and the concern it's causing among historians and much of the American public. I would see it as a tilt, Joe, or completely running straight into it. Just going to say, Mr. Binder now knows once again, even on live television, the dangers of ever writing anything about Donald Trump, because it's never enough or it's too much. It is never just right. And can I get it? Can I get an amen from the reporters? Yes, you can. So, Michael, let's begin with you, though. Your your piece obviously started once again a conversation about Donald Trump.

Again, not not just not just mimicking the words of of past authoritarian and fascist leaders, but but also doing that against a backdrop of violence on January the 6th, doing that against a backdrop of violence by one of his supporters against Paul Pelosi, doing that against a backdrop of him mocking Pelosi, calling for violence against his opponents. All a very, very toxic, toxic mix going into the 2024 election. Yeah, that's right. And kind of what, you know, we've all known, everyone has known for a while, Trump has long run as a as kind of as an outrageous candidate. Right. He's been willing to say and do things that that few in our lifetime have been willing to do and say on a national stage. But what strikes me this time and which sparked this article has been, you know, most of the focus of his attacks, particularly when he started, were foreign marks, Muslim immigrants, Hispanic immigrants. And the change we've seen over the last few campaigns, particularly now, is he's saved some of that most vicious attacks for domestic opponents.

And that turn inward comes at a time when he and his allies are coming up with plans to weaponize the Department of Justice, to surround himself with lawyers in a potential second term that would bless some of his most contentious actions. So this piece tried to pull all that together while also showing some of the the examples of, you know, of this authoritarian language that he's really been leaning into really for the past year, Past year. And there are many people who believe it really needs to be discussed. You know, this show got criticized a great deal, especially through 2015,

for saying that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination. And for us having him on the show, there has also, of course, been great criticism of other networks that have allowed him to have town hall meetings. And it's interesting. I'm saying this is leading up to an interesting conundrum. John Heilman, New York Times today. Democrats want Trump plastered all over the news. Things have changed.

Let me read from it very briefly here and have you respond. Three years later, after Trump left the White House, Mr. Biden's reelection campaign and Democratic officials across the party spectrum have landed on a new solution instead of ignoring Donald Trump. More Trump. Criticizing the news media for giving Mr. Trump a platform, is out. Quietly pining for major networks again to broadcast live coverage of Trump campaign rallies is in. Behind the improbable longing for the former president to gobble up political oxygen again is Democrats' year-long dependence on Trump's outrage machine. Since his ascent.

And oh, my God, is this not true? Mr. Trump has been a one man Democratic turnout operation, uniting an otherwise fractured opposition and fueling victories in three straight election cycles, reports Reid Epstein. And John, we had a National Review had a line that I thought summarized it succinctly. When Americans are talking about Joe Biden, Republicans win. When Americans are talking about Donald Trump, Democrats win. And Democrats want America talking about Donald Trump now more than ever. Right, Joe. And of course, you know, as you said a second ago, there's a there's a kind of grim irony of it for for those of us who have been told over the course of the last seven years. Just don't talk about him. Don't talk about him. He'll go away. I know you and Mika and everyone who's ever had any reason to

talk about Donald Trump on this show have heard this endlessly from people over the course of the last seven years. He only thrives because we give him attention. If the media just didn't cover him, somehow he wouldn't be a powerful force. Of course, a ludicrous argument given the kind of alternative media ecosystem that exists where Trump gets his message out, that entire sphere of right-wing, far-right-wing, moderate-right-wing, all of the ecosystem that has given him the biggest platform he has and is connected to tens of millions of Americans, people have finally woken up to the notion, as this piece suggests, that ignoring him doesn't make him go away. And to Mike Bender's, the important point of Mike Bender's piece, which is that the Democrats understand now that they need to break through a kind of torpor among a lot of potential and past Trump, people who voted against Donald Trump,

people who voted for Democrats, who now assume somehow Trump will not be the nominee. They're not focused on the election. He won't eventually get there. He'll be in jail. Whatever it is, they have to make clear that Trump is here. He's almost certainly going to be here to stay at least until next November. And that, as Bender's piece shows, his rhetoric is amazingly getting worse, more dangerous, more inciting, more insightful. I say insightful, not insightful as in full of insight, but that all of that's getting worse and that voters need to understand as early as possible the stakes of the election or Democrats are going to be in trouble a year from now. And Mika, by the way, for those waking up this morning asking what is morning Joe's word of the day, it's sort of our version of wordle. Torpor. Torpor. John Heilman has brought it to the table

and we are most grateful that he has. A state of what? A state of mental inactivity? Would that be torpor? And lethargy? And slothfulness? Laziness? Laziness? Lack of acute understanding and focus? Sure.

Okay. Well, you've just, you've just, I mean, this is my word, actually, for life. I love it. Go ahead word, actually, for for for for life. I love it. It's his motto. The option for Democrats here, it seems to me. I mean, there's always the issue. We don't want to go negative. We don't want to go ugly.

When you're running against Donald Trump has provided and put it in proper context and give people information about what will be happening if he gets another term. I think that would be enough. And I think Democrats need to pound away at the dangers of Donald Trump using Donald Trump's own words against him and actions? Oh, no question. And I think that, look, there's a vacuum. When mainstream media does not cover a subject, there becomes a vacuum. And Trump and his people get into social media and they spread stuff. And if there isn't a fair amount of debunking, you will see these lies go again and again and again.

And talk about spreading. You can also cover the many Trumps, Tommy Tuberville, you know, the new speaker of the House. They're all many Trumps, all Republicans caught in a cult that honestly, Republicans that you know in your life, you can't recognize these Republicans. This is all out there. And it's accurate information that can be used against him that Trump has amassed over the course of four to eight years. And he has given the Democrats on a silver platter. Take it and run with it. And I think that the White House is seeing more and more that they need to fill the vacuum, that they need to push back, that they need to to you know, they were aggressively boring

and it worked for a long time. But the problem is they weren't able to claim their accomplishments if they were aggressively boring and they weren't able to really shift the narrative. And now they really need to do that. They need to claim, you know, they did an inflation reduction. They need to claim that victory. There are a lot of victories. You know, right now, inflation is going down. Right. They should claim that victory and they're going to have to be the ones to do it. And they're going to have to be the ones to fill that void. Joe, they have a lot of material. They have a lot of material. You know, the thing is, Donald Trump winning in 2016, we've always talked about the inside straight that he drew, but we haven't looked at how how lucky he actually was that that in the primary, his main opponent was Jeb Bush.

In the the general, it was Hillary Clinton. The Bush Clinton family had been in the White House for 20 of 28 years at that point. It was hard not to blame every problem working class Americans had on on the Clinton Bush dominance. So he had that. But so so I said that to say, Jonathan O'Meara, in 2016, the election really wasn't about Donald Trump. It was a referendum on Hillary Clinton. In 2020, the election wasn't about Joe Biden. It was a referendum on Donald Trump. And Joe Biden, again, was the one candidate that could lay low enough ideologically so Trump couldn't couldn't land a punch on him. And now we go into 24 and the Biden White House. Tell me about your reporting about how much do they recognize that 24 needs to be a referendum on Trump once again, his words on

abortion, his words on violence, his words on terminating the Constitution, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. How big is that going to play? Oh, it's going to play a significant role. That's that's been the game plan all along. They spent a few months trying to make the positive case for Biden, particularly on the economy, the Bidenomics pitch. And as we know, that hasn't really worked, hasn't translated yet in the polls anyway. And a lot of Democrats were getting really antsy about it and urging them to draw sharper contrasts with Donald Trump. And as we wrote right after the election, they have begun to do that. And that is going to be the centerpiece of their campaign going forward and connected to the piece in The Times today about Democrats

wanting more coverage of Trump. And we should note that White House themselves tried to ignore Trump for a long time. President Biden wouldn't even say Trump's name for almost a year. But connected to this idea they want more coverage of Trump is Mike Bender. There's reporting that we had a few weeks ago that there's a belief among Democrats that Donald Trump at this point is sort of a name in the headlines. He's a picture on TV. But Americans, especially those who aren't paying attention just yet, really haven't listened to him in a long time. And once they do, once they start hearing from him again, it might not be till next year when he starts delivering more high profile speeches, they're going to be stunned by the rhetoric and his incendiary plans for the future. So my question to you is, do people around Donald Trump think the same? Are they worried

that they could turn off sort of swing voters, but they think it's worth it because they can drive out turnout from his base? Yeah, no, it's a very good point. This idea that less Trump is the best Trump is something that both Democrats and Republicans agree on. Trump has gotten a lot of criticism for not campaigning very heavily in the past year. But a part of that is that his team knows he he's he's better. He the public views him much better when he's not in the headlines every single day. As this campaign gets closer, though, I don't think that's going to be much of an issue. We've seen Trump's aggressiveness escalate to each successive campaign as the stakes get higher and higher. He is prone to become more and more combative. He's, I'll just point out, heading into this election,

facing 91 felony charges and the prospect of not just becoming a two-time loser, but a historic two-time loser. Only one other Republican in the history of the party has ever lost two presidential nominations. There's so much to work with. I mean, where do you begin is the problem. Michael C. Bender, thank you. Molly Jong fast. Thank you as well. We hope you all have a great holiday coming up. Here's something to be thankful for this Thanksgiving falling prices. Steve Ratner joins us with charts and how Americans are saving on everything from food to flights this holiday season. Morning Joe, we will be right back. You know, this is this is one of the most moving times of the year for me. So exciting. I know for you too. The Comcast Commerce Tree going up outside of 30 Rock. And of course, the Comcast Commerce Tree put up for all good little boys and girls to run around wildly, be swept up into the spirit of taking and pulling their mothers and fathers

into the NBCbc experience store where you can get a morning joe mug a lot of morning joe merch uh do they even have morning joe merch there i doubt it i see ratner speaking of dark corner in a dark yeah in a darkened darkened corner like a little uh and they have i think they have a little box and every one of the mugs, you know, is chipped and broken. You deem in the corner. Speaking of the corner, the southwest corner of the Morning Joe Studios. High atop the 30 Rock. So, Steve, we're going to get to your charts in a second.

But there is something that is so deeply fascinating about the state of the economy and America's perception of the economy and just how much disinformation can actually move Americans. That they they it's the whole. Are you going to believe me or your lying eyes? They believe they're lying eyes. Americans front page of The New York Times. Americans say the economy is bad. Their spending begs to differ. A disconnect looms in the psyche of voters. We've been talking about this for a while. And The New York Times, obviously, stealing your idea on charts. And we're we really need to talk to him about that. But they have charts showing just how well the economy is

doing. And yet the disinformation coming from certain news sources, driving those numbers way down. Because, of course, if you have Republicans who are making more money than they've ever made in their lives and they're watching certain news networks, they're going to tell pollsters and everybody else, oh, the economy is doing horribly when, in fact, about 80 percent of Americans say their situation is pretty good right now. Yeah, Joe, look, we've talked about that before, and there's definitely a disconnect in the economy. People say their situations are good, but nonetheless, as you know, the approval ratings for the handling of the economy, right track, wrong track numbers, looks out into the future about where they think things are going are all pretty deeply pessimistic. But along the way, they're spending money and actually doing better with inflation coming down, as I can show

you here in the context of Thanksgiving and the holiday shopping. I'd love to see that. So let's take a look at the cost of a Thanksgiving this year. So 72% of Americans, according to a recent survey, thought the cost of Thanksgiving would actually be higher this year. In fact, the cost of Thanksgiving, according to the Farm Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is going to come down slightly. It's going to go from $64.05 last year to $61.17 this year. That may sound low to those of us who live in cities, but that is the national average. Now, in fairness, we did have a run up in the kind of COVID era. It was down as low as forty nine dollars. But still, this is good news. Probably to the point, to your point, a surprise to Americans who think prices are just going up.

Another way to look at this is in terms of how much work you have to do to pay for that. Sixty one dollar and seventeen cent Thanksgiving. And the answer is less work than any year in modern history, except for the three around COVID. It took two hours and 40 minutes to pay for that of work to pay for Thanksgiving back here. We're down to two hours and six minutes at the moment. So, again, relative to what people are making, Thanksgiving is getting less expensive. OK, so you you are able to buy the meal, maybe, but then you still got to get there if you're visiting your family. What are you finding in terms of travel costs?

So that's another pleasant surprise people will have, which is the travel costs have come down a lot. Obviously, gasoline spiked, very upsetting to Americans, most of whom do drive somewhere or other. But gas has come down, down, down, and down. And now gas is 5% lower than it was a year ago. And again, relative to wages, which is this gray line, it's essentially unchanged. And I would also say, if you looked at gas prices over the last 40 years and adjusted for inflation, they're only about average now. I know that may surprise Americans, but that's true. Even better news, if you are flying to grandma's house, it is actually going to be cheaper in actual terms than it was a year ago. Airfares are now below where they were

back in November of 19. And so that is good news for travelers as well. There are a few people who've gotten their Christmas shopping done already. Are you one of them, Mika? I do. I always get it done before Thanksgiving. Is that weird? No, it's like, I need to get it done. But are we going to see massive, massive

costs at Christmas when you're trying to buy presents, clothes, gift certificates, or is there going to be some respite for shoppers during the holidays? Yes, Mika. Again, good news on prices. The prices for a lot of things that people buy are coming down this year compared to last year. So again, you start with people, average wage up 4.4%. All these different categories are going to cost less relative to wages and in most cases, less in absolute terms than they cost last year.

Smartphones, towels and sheets, appliances, TVs, all these things down anywhere from two and a half to 12%. And again, for some of these things, it's a return from COVID increases. But interestingly, for electronics like television sets and computers, those prices also went down last year and smartphones have gone down for two straight years. So much lower prices for the kinds of things people often buy around this time of the holiday. And then lastly, this doesn't count discounting. And you're going to see, we believe we're going to see a lot of discounting. Inventories are pretty full. Sales are a little bit slow. So you could see discounts

as high as 35 percent on toys, 30 percent on electronics, things like that. And so also good news for holiday shoppers. Yeah, maybe in some ways the way the economy feels will catch up with the data that we're seeing. Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner, thank you very much for your charts. Have a great Thanksgiving. Always good to see you.