Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/28/23

Episode Date: November 28, 2023

Israel and Hamas agree to extend pause in fighting

John, how many Americans are still being held hostage and do you have proof of that? We think the number is, well, it's less than 10, probably in the neighborhood of, you know, about eight to nine. But we don't necessarily have firm, solid information on each and every one of them. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby with an update on the number of American hostages still being held by Hamas following the release of a four-year-old girl. The humanitarian pause in Gaza remains in effect this morning. We'll have the latest on when more hostages could be freed. Also ahead, an update on the college students of Palestinian descent who were shot in Burlington, Vermont. We'll hear from the mother of one of the victims. Plus, as if a rematch of 2020 wasn't bad enough, Donald Trump is bringing back a top issue from his 2016 campaign.

It's a pledge on which he never delivered. We'll explain what that is. And and I mean, it's unpopular, too. Why would he deliver? He's going he's once again going to promise something that's extremely unpopular with people. But we're talking about, you know, the Wall Street Journal lead talking about Israel and Hamas extend the truce two days. New York Times lead the same talking about how Israel and Hamas agree to extend pause and swap. And, Mika, you know, you said something yesterday that really, really struck a chord with me and I think with a lot of people who are watching. When you said, you know what, for people who want to make age an issue, you're damn right. It is an issue. And we're getting through this

process of negotiating with some very difficult, very dangerous, in some cases, very terrible people. And the process is still moving forward because Joe Biden knows all the players. Yeah. I mean, this is the big stage, the world stage. And with everything at stake on two separate fronts, two wars, Ukraine and Israel literally putting everything on the line for the rest of the world for global security. What I want a man who's got who's straight A student in his 40s or 50s out there? Would I want someone with 40, 50 years experience on the world stage? That includes decades of wins and losses politically and geopolitically.

And I can't think of somebody that need to come to the moment. And and he does it. Well, and there's a third door that Carol Merrill is standing in front of Willie. And that is not just a guy with 50 years of experience who is extraordinary in diplomacy or a 40 year old straight A student. I never knew any of those and neither did Mika. But the third door that voters could choose from is a guy who's just like off his rocker, who tried to overthrow the United States government, who said he's going to terminate the Constitution of the United States, said his vice president deserved hanging, said he wanted to execute the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and is confused, does not know what decade he's in, thinks he's running against Barack Obama,

and he thinks that we just may soon stumble into World War Two. We won't even get into the leaders that that he's confused by, like who's running Turkey, who's running Hungary. It's all very, very confusing to him, I know. But these are the days. These are the days where actually experience is extraordinarily important. And after it being discounted by voters for far too long, and look what we've gotten for it. Look what we've gotten for it over the past 20 years. It's good to have somebody in the White House who knows what he's doing and knows all the players on the world stage. And can project at least some sense of calm publicly standing with the Israeli people while privately pushing Benjamin Netanyahu and the way he's prosecuting the war. Richard Haass is with us.

We'll have some thoughts on that in just a moment. But to your point, more hostages expected to be released today now that Hamas and Israel have agreed to extend the temporary truce. Qatari officials who've been mediating the talks announced yesterday both sides have agreed to extend the pause in fighting for an additional two days. The original pause was set to expire today. President Biden released a statement welcoming the new extension. He said he remains deeply engaged in the deal to ensure it continues to deliver results, adding he will, quote, not stop until

all of the hostages held by Hamas terrorists are released. End quote. The Israeli government has not officially commented on this new extension, but it had offered to continue the pause in fighting if Hamas releases an additional 10 hostages a day. Late last night, officials announced they have received the names of those expected to be freed today. The pause also allows for more humanitarian aid to enter Gaza. Joining us now live from Tel Aviv, NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel. Richard, good morning. Tell us more about how this new pause, this new extension came into play and what the deal looks like in these prisoner exchanges for hostages. So we were expecting that today the the Israeli bombing campaign against Hamas in Gaza would resume. That is what Israel said would happen. It said as soon as this temporary pause was over,

then its mission to eliminate Hamas from the Gaza Strip would begin in earnest. But in the 11th hour, as there were just a few hours remaining for this temporary truce, Qatar and Egypt announced that there had been an extension. And then Hamas also said that there had been this extension under the same terms, which means that for every one hostage that is released, there will be three Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails. So we're expecting to see 10, perhaps more than 10 released today by Hamas, and then another 10 tomorrow. What happens after that is an open question. Will Israel resume its bombing campaign or will there be yet another extension? Israel says that if Hamas stops handing over the hostages,

it will immediately go back to its military campaign. But there is a note of caution that Qatari and other Arab advisors are sounding. They are saying that it is not just Hamas that is holding hostages. There are dozens of other hostages being held by other militant groups inside Gaza. So they are appealing for more time. They are saying that what has been established now should be built upon, that this should develop into a more sustainable truce to allow Hamas, which is

the still the local government there, to try and get a better handle of the situation, understand where these hostages are. Israel's concerned that Hamas is just playing for time and wants to keep the pressure on. So we think we know what might happen for the next 48 hours with this deal extending. And then it's a completely open question what happens after that. So, Richard, what do we know about the hostages that have been returned to Israel? There were three-year-old twins among the 11 yesterday. We're seeing young children.

We're seeing older people also released. And then on the other side, what kind of prisoners are being sent back into Gaza? What kind of criminals are they and why were they being held in Israel? So there's a so far from Gaza, it has been just women and children, women and children that Hamas said from the very beginning it was willing to to exchange for either just give up or exchange for females and minors held in Israeli jails. These are, relatively speaking, the easy hostages. It will be much more complicated once we get into the idea of exchanging men or young women, which Hamas considers soldiers. Some of them are actually soldiers were serving were captured in uniform.

Others are just military aged men and women who Hamas considers soldiers because they could be drafted into the reserves or called up for duty at almost any time. That will be far more complicated because Hamas will ask for more senior level militants, will ask for key players that are in Israeli jails. It will ask for far greater numbers and it could ask for all Israeli troops to leave the Gaza Strip, for example. We don't know exactly what Hamas is going to ask for,

but the price will certainly be higher. In terms of the people that Israel has been releasing, generally they've been very low level. These have been not people who are militant leaders by any stretch of the imagination. They were people who are held for quite minor offenses. Some of them have only been in custody for a short amount of time. And there has been some frustration among ordinary Palestinians who think that Israel has been rounding up people using new laws, using new incitement laws here. There are new laws that have just been passed that if you tweet something online supporting Gaza or that that is interpreted as supporting Hamas, that you could be quite quickly arrested. So Israel at this stage is just releasing low level people, including some that have just quite quite recently been been detained.

NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel in Tel Aviv again for us today. Richard, thanks so much. We always appreciate it. So, Joe, behind all this, obviously, the Qatari government is working to mediate this. But President Biden is right there, as he indicated in his statement, buying some more time. It's just 48 hours. But the first goal, as he has said, and Prime Minister Netanyahu said, is getting these hostages out of Gaza, freeing them from Hamas. And then once that is done, then, you know, Israel can continue to prosecute its war to uproot and get rid of Hamas. But for now, good news that at least some hostages are being released. Yeah, good news. Very good news on that front. And the front page lead story written by Peter Baker. He does write that it was President Biden that got this done.

At the president's urging, Peter Baker writes, the two sides agreed on Monday to extend the temporary pause in the war between Israel and Hamas. Two more days to allow the release of an additional 20 hostages, according to Cutter. That gives all sides more breathing space, but only postpones the most critical question by another 48 hours, namely what happens whenever the negotiating pause eventually expires. And Richard Haass, we all salute the president's extraordinary diplomatic skills and the team that he has working throughout the region. And he has provided throughout the region. And he has provided more breathing space. What I'm hearing from from diplomats and leaders in the region is that they are that they want to do deals with the Israelis moving forward.

They want to be able to do that. They are very concerned that if Israel goes right back to massive bombardment and and what we saw before the ceasefire, that it's going to set Mideast peace back for quite some time. And these Arab neighbors who have wanted to be allies with Israel since the Abraham's Accord process started just aren't going to have the breathing space to do that. So what does the Biden administration want after this next 48-hour truce ends? Well, Joe, what I think we're seeing from the Biden administration is two things. One is almost, I'd say there's been a shift in emphasis. And I'd say it's get the hostages out first, prosecute the war against Hamas second. That's where the Biden administration is coming from quite clearly. It's also I think the Israeli public is.

It's not where the Israeli government is, but the Israeli government is forced to agree with the Biden administration and the Israeli public. At some point, my guess is all the hostages won't be out. Either there won't be an accounting, Hamas will want to keep some, some of these other groups may keep some. And then the question of the resumption of military operations will come up. And that's the other big emphasis of President Biden and the Secretary of State, less whether Israel resumes the military action than how. And what you're going to see is increasing pressure not to go back to the massive aerial bombardment. There was a powerful piece in The New York Times about two days ago, which essentially made the case that this is unprecedented. This amount of large scale bombardment against civilian populations causing this amount of civilian casualties,

even if some of the numbers coming out of Gaza are inflated, the numbers are still are still horrific and unprecedented. So I think you'll see much more pressure that Israel needs to go in small, more patiently, not do attacks where it's inevitable you would cause a large amount of civilian casualties. In some ways, embrace the kinds of policies that a lot of special forces units in this country would argue are the lessons of Iraq and Afghanistan. Be patient, be small, be targeted. Don't be in a hurry. Don't go in big from the air. Well, I mean, you're exactly right. It's the lessons of Iraq, of Afghanistan and of Syria now. And I'm not talking about from 2003 to 2006, seven when we had massive numbers of troops there. But what we've been able to do in pushing back ISIS, pushing back terror groups, pushing back Iranian terrorist groups moving across the

region. You are so right. A much smaller footprint, a more nimble footprint, and wait for your opportunities. And I think that obviously is what the region hopes. And again, by the region, I'm talking about Arab allies of Israel's who want much more to have a future with Israel than they do with the Palestinians. That's just the reality. By the way, on a personal note, just a personal note. Morning, Joe. We're very relieved here. I think the New York state authorities are going to be backing off of us. The child labor laws that we had been violating for quite some time I think Jonathan O'Meara today he celebrates a birthday and he is of age I wouldn't put it that way but he is of age today the legal working age in a morning Joe studio so congratulations, on your what is it, your 18th birthday, 19th birthday?

Yeah, we finally we evaded Albany long enough and we can start to put this out in the open now. The attorney general has been busy with other matters. But thank you. Yes. Thank you. Thank you. It is my birthday today. Much, much, much appreciated. Joe, let me chime in on this because we actually have a little news on this development to Richard's point about what the U.S. is looking to get out of from this Israel right now, CIA Director William Burns just arrived, announced in Qatar, to engage in talks there with their prime minister, as well as the head of Mossad, who is one of Bibi Ben-Yahoo's top advisers, to talk about a bigger deal, to try to broker a bigger deal for more hostages, try to extend this pause in the fighting beyond these next two days. And this coincides with Secretary of State Blinken also heading back to the region later this week as well. So this is what the White House is now really publicly signaling

to what they've been privately communicating in recent days, is that they want the focus to keep keep the to keep the fighting down, to try to get more hostages out. And we heard yesterday from John Kirby at the White House podium acknowledging that they're not sure how many Americans are still left. They think it's seven or eight. They don't know their conditions. They don't know their whereabouts. Truthfully, they don't even know how many of them are still alive. So this is really a focus right now to try to get to keep the fighting down, to get more people out. A lot of moving parts and a lot of news to cover still.

So up next in just one minute, we're going to take a quick break. The suspect accused of shooting three college students of Palestinian descent in Vermont on Saturday pleads not guilty to charges of attempted murder. We'll have the latest on the investigation when Morning Joe returns in 60 seconds. The suspected gunman in Burlington, Vermont, the shooting there that injured three Palestinian U.S. college students, pleaded not guilty to three counts of attempted second degree murder yesterday. 49-year-old Jason Eaton was ordered to be held without bail. According to a probable cause affidavit, when law enforcement came to Eaton's door

to execute a search warrant on Sunday, he told the agents, quote, I've been waiting for you. Police searched Eaton's apartment and found a handgun and rounds of distinctive red tipped ammunition, the same type as some found at the scene of the shooting. This comes as we learn more about the three victims. The group of friends were on a walk, speaking in Arabic and wearing traditional Palestinian scarves when the shooter opened fire. One victim's mother tells NBC News that her son may never walk again, but she remains hopeful. We're hoping that his strength of character and his determination will mean that he will work hard and regain strength and walk. Hisham is a very, very strong youngful, Willie, that you have

these three young men, these three college students that are walking around Burlington, Vermont, coming together from, I believe, Brown and Haverford and Trinity College. And they're coming together to celebrate Thanksgiving, walking down the street, and they come up and get shot. We're still awaiting the FBI and any conclusions on whether it's a hate crime or not. But it certainly seems, again, from what we know, all indications are that that is a likelihood. But regardless, what an absolute tragedy.

I mean, it's just appalling when you see these three guys like we would have known coming home from college, grew up together back home, going to an uncle's house, talked about going to a movie over the weekend. They went bowling the other night, Just three buddies from their hometown. And they were apparently, according to police, wearing distinctive clothing. So, you know, they haven't called this a hate crime yet, but it's not a big leap to understand what likely happened here. That a man whose bullet casings in his apartment matched those found on the scene. He said, I've been waiting for you, which would suggest he knew exactly why the police were there to talk to him. And it's gut wrenching. And it brings to mind the heinous stabbing death of a six year old Palestinian

American boy in Illinois just over a month ago. These are hate crimes in the purest sense and disgusting. Yeah, we are rightly reminded of the rise in anti-Semitism since the attacks of October 7th. And we also are all too aware of the fact that 60 percent of all hate crimes in America are targeted against Jews, despite the fact they only make up about two, two and a half percent of our population. At the same time, obviously, Muslim Americans deserve deserve our focus and our attention and our protection and our love and our care. Because, well, I mean, at least in my eyes, they're not Muslim Americans. They're Americans. It's like somebody is not a Jewish American. They're an American. And these people who are going around trying to separate them out from from the rest of us, they're the un-American ones.

They're the ones that should be that should be condemned in the harshest terms. Our prayers, again, with with all three of those young men. Richard Haass, I want to talk really quickly about Bill Burns. It's kind of like when Bill Burns shows up in Russia or Bill Burns shows up in Doha, you know, the negotiations are about to begin. Talk about the importance of Bill Burns going to Doha and beginning these negotiations with the head of Nassad and also the head of Doha, the head of Qatar. It's interesting, Joe. I worked with Bill for decades. Very unassuming, very low key, but probably the most experienced diplomat we have. He's in the CIA role. But what's interesting is the administration is using him as a third principal alongside the secretary of state

and the national security advisor. Bill played a critical role with Russia. He was ambassador, knows Putin probably better than any American official. He was ambassador to Jordan earlier in his career, knows a lot of officials throughout the Middle East. And what we're also seeing in things like hostage-type negotiations, the fact that he's there, the head of Mossad, it's less through diplomatic channels. The way the Israelis and the Americans deduct this is often through intelligence channels with their Arab counterparts and with Qatar. And that's the way you reach Hamas. It's all with with go betweens. So Bill has taken on a role that's far beyond providing intelligence analysis and support to the president. Again, he's become the third principal on the foreign policy national security front. I would

think if there's a second Biden administration, he could very much be in line for something like the State Department, given what he's already doing. Yeah. And I just wanted, Jonathan Lemire, while we're talking about the hostage negotiations and talking about a pause in fighting, I want to draw attention because this is certainly an attitude not only in Israel, but also an attitude shared by a lot of U.S. lawmakers. And that is the Wall Street Journal lead editorial basically saying the United States provides aid to Israel, but at the same time, we can't put conditions on how they fight a war against terrorists. There is going to be, again, that that that rub again coming very soon, because, again, the Israelis who endured what they endured on October the 7th will obviously take U.S. guidance.

But at some point, if we stand in the way or suggest we're going to stand in the way of them destroying Hamas, I think this relationship is going to go sideways fast. Yeah, and there are a few tension points here. First of all, in Washington, there is talk among some Democratic senators about putting conditions on the military assistance, on the aid to Israel, which is not unusual. We do that for most other countries. There's been some thought we wouldn't this time around. Now Bernie Sanders and a few of his fellow Democrats are saying that we should. It's unclear what Majority Leader Schumer or President Biden thinks about that. But that's something to watch here in the States. And then, of course, there have been flashpoints throughout. I mean,

the president has made clear that we're not we as the U.S. are not going to tell Israel how to conduct its war. But they certainly have provided some thoughts and some guidance. Israel has accepted some, not others. But to your point, you're right. Israel will make its own judgments. And this is what worries a little bit about the West Wing, because they're not sure they have the most trustworthy partner here in Prime Minister Netanyahu. As we've discussed on the show quite a bit, that relationship between Biden and Netanyahu is is law is certainly spans decades, but has been quite fraught. And the White House doesn't believe Netanyahu is there long term, that at some point they can see the polls in Israel. They believe

Netanyahu moved out. They're preparing for that, even if it's still months from now. And they worry slightly as to what he might do, Netanyahu might do to continue his power. Exactly, because he did a lot before all this. Coming up, one of our next guests says the stakes of 2024 are too important to spend time obsessing over every snapshot of the electorate. Vanity Fair's Molly Jong Fast will join us with her argument against, quote, treating polls as actual news events. Morning Joe is coming right back. It's half past the hour. A live look at the White House as the sun still has yet to come up over Washington, D.C. The Biden administration says it plans to hit back after Donald Trump over the weekend again threatened to repeal Obamacare. On social media on Saturday, the 2024 Republican frontrunner wrote he is, quote, seriously looking at alternatives to the Affordable Care Act if he wins next year's presidential election. He thinks it just passed last week because he's stuck.

He thinks it's night. Yeah, he thinks it's. And really, he's seriously looking at that as well as his four indictments and $250 million civil suit. I got it. He's got the time for that. Of course, Trump vowed to gut Obamacare before he was even elected the first time. But once he entered the Oval Office, he failed to follow through and never even presented an alternative health care plan. Regardless, the Biden administration says it plans to seize on this latest threat in television ads and elsewhere. No tactic is out of the question,

a campaign advisor tells NBC News, adding that they'll present Trump's plan as part of a, quote, deeply, historically unpopular agenda on which Republicans are running. And Republicans have never had an alternative to Obamacare. Never, never, never, never, never. It's pretty remarkable. I mean, the debate was in 2009. I think they passed it in 2010. And everyone's benefiting from it, including Republicans. For a decade, they talked about repeal and replace. They've never once. Think about this. If you want to talk about a party that's intellectually bankrupt, they've never had an alternative to the Affordable Care Act.

And here we go again. Never had an alternative. Never put one out there that the party got behind. And that's just the opposite. When in the 1990s, there was a debate about the Clintons and health care. And Hillary Clinton was a champion of universal health care. Republicans came out. They had about five, six different plans that they were debating. Democrats had their own alternatives. There was actually a real debate. You know, Jonathan O'Meara, one of the bigger problems right now for Donald Trump is, again, you know, you got to it's like a boxer past his prime. He thinks he's running against Barack Obama.

He thinks that we may enter World War Two soon. So I don't I can't figure out whether he's in 2011 or 1941, the summer of 41. But he's now talking about repealing the Affordable Care Act again. I think, yeah, and his his aides need to explain to him we're in 2023 about to get into because the Kaiser Foundation took the most recent poll that I've seen that shows something like 55, 56 percent of Americans support the Affordable Care Act. And those who oppose it are in the low 40s. This is this has become an extremely popular law on the books. And once again, Donald Trump going back in time with his way back machine, picking the wrong side on yet another issue. Yeah. Well, let's remember, Trump did try to repeal Obamacare in 2017 when the Republicans controlled the House and the Senate. It was the effort that was defeated by John McCain and others. McCain's famous thumbs down on the Senate floor defeated that effort. And the Trump White House never really revisited it. But even then, when they were trying to take away Obamacare,

they never had a replacement plan. It would all when it's coming in two weeks, in two weeks, in two weeks. That was the birth of that. That's mean that Trump everything would be in two weeks was this health care plan. And we are now not just two weeks, but we're six years later. And he still hasn't come up with any sort of alternative. And to your point, the politics of this have changed. And this is Trump living in the past or living in an echo chamber, just the hyper right, whether it's on portions of Fox News or other really conservative commentators who still want to destroy Obamacare just because the word Obama's in it. And they think that's the political winner for their base.

Well, that base is small. Most voters want to keep Obamacare, at least good portions of it, because it has helped their lives. And this is an issue the Biden White House, let's just say they have seized upon. And the Biden campaign in the last 24 hours has organized a number of calls. We're going to hear from Nancy Pelosi later today on this issue as a Biden campaign surrogate, Joe. They feel like this is another issue, along with abortion, along with Trump's dangerous rhetoric, where they can, and his threat to democracy, where they can paint Trump and the Republicans

as extreme and out of step. Well, and Willie, I'm just looking right now at a history of the Affordable Care Act. And again, Donald Trump, because he's usually about a decade behind when he gets on stage and it's late, he gets confused. He's actually true. Obama, Obama, Obama. He starts stammering around like that and talking about starting World War Two and start talking about Erdogan running Turkey or are are actually Erdogan does run Turkey, talking about Orban running Turkey and Erdogan running Hungary. It gets all very confusing. But here you are. There's all kinds of stuff.

Yeah. Yeah. Hezbollah is smart. President Xi, brilliant. Kim Jong Un, love letters. It's all very confusing for Donald Trump. He's sort of in this, I don't know actually why he's so confused about everything. But you look at the history and you actually see that over the past 12 years or so,

the approval ratings for the Affordable Care Act have gone up from like 48 percent in 2010 to 62 percent in 2023. This is, again, it's a very popular law. It is very popular. And as John alluded to, Republicans owned Washington from January of 2017 to January of 2019. If they actually meant that they were going to repeal and replace Obamacare, they had plenty of 2017 to January of 2019, if they actually meant that they were going to repeal and replace Obamacare, they had plenty of time to do it. It also raises the question, Joe, of why he keeps leaning into these issues that are harmful to him and his chances to become president of the United States. We can talk about Obamacare, the Affordable Care Act, how popular it is. Him saying again and again, I am the man single handedly who got rid of Roe versus Wade.

The issue of abortion, obviously not a good one for him. He seeks reelection, also leaning into the fact that he tried to overturn the government in 2020. He's talking about how he's going to free the January 6th rioters that he still believes he won. That was not popular during the midterms last year. It was not popular during the midterms last year. It was not popular again this fall. So he keeps going to places that, as John said, Joe Biden and their campaign is very happy for him to go. Let's bring into our conversation our good friend, MSNBC contributor Mike Barnicle and special correspondent Vanity Fair host of the Fast Politics podcast, Molly

Jong Fast. Good morning to you both. So, Molly, we can get into your new piece and how it fits in to all of this, which is that whether it's abortion or Obamacare or January 6th, these issues that Joe Biden is very happy to have raised by his likely opponent, Donald Trump, in the 2024 campaign. Yeah. I mean, so my my thesis is basically that and we can go back to 2016 and talk about that. We spent so much time covering the stakes of a Hillary Clinton presidency. Right. 90 percent. 78 percent. You know, 99 percent. Trump has no path. Right. That we didn't spend enough time covering the we covered the the odds of this Hillary Clinton presidency. We didn't spend enough time covering the stakes of a Donald Trump presidency.

And I think that that's what polls do. They shift the narrative in a way that's not necessarily so helpful. And they drive a lot of news cycles. And we've seen that they're necessary. And I'm not even talking about the accuracy of polls. I'm talking about them more as just sort of the wrong engine for a lot of reporting. Well, I mean, it is and it's a complete obsession. And we around the table and Morning Joe into the summer and fall of of 2016 would say that Donald Trump still had an outside chance of winning. And the hatred and the anger, even when we were being critical and saying we didn't want him to win. I mean, the obsessions on the polls and these meters, like 98.4 percent and 99 points at those those needles, the ones that went to Auburn having a 99.9 percent chance of beating Alabama.

OK, well, you know, right in there. OK, it's one. It's great. Had to do it. Fourth and thirty one. So but you had that obsession. And then I remember Mike Barnicle as we got down the homestretch of the polls, and I remember seeing a poll that showed Joe Biden ahead by 13 points in Wisconsin.

And I just tweeted out at that moment, I don't believe any of the polls. And sure enough, they really were. A lot of these state polls, especially in the upper Midwest, way off. And then you have this insanity. And this gets to the point of Mali's piece on election night several weeks ago. We had real American voters going to real voting booths. And we were going to have all the real data from a real election for networks to go over. And another network, whom we won't name, decided that on that night they were going to drop a poll at 7 p.m. when the voting booths closed and they could have actually reported

on real numbers. And what did the poll show? Joe Biden, it's terrible. It's the end of the world. By the way, all of these polls that are like you you read the headline it goes the worst news ever for joe biden and i'm thinking oh my god he was riding his bike in delaware and a comet dropped on him crushing him to death and then i open up the link and i look at it and they show me three polls where the president of the United States is within the margin of error of a crazy, dangerous man who has isn't even really in the front of people's minds right now. I just sit there and think, wait a second. This network had real human beings to talk about. But instead of dealing with voters, they wanted to talk about a poll that would push theirmed just how well the Democrats were doing swimming against the tide. Well, you know, the interesting thing about polls right now, and it's the only interesting thing, is that it's like taking a picture of a sunset. Each poll, there's going

to be another sunset tomorrow. Things change and nobody's paying attention really other than people like us to a future election a year away. The interesting aspect of the election, I would submit, is that we have one political party, the Republican Party, seriously interested, seemingly from top to bottom, in marching this country backward. Their principal interest is in taking things away from people, things that people have grown used to living with, like Obamacare. Mike, that includes, Mike, they have already taken away a constitutional right that women had for 50 years. Now they want to take away health care guarantees that Americans have had for a dozen years.

Correct. And later this week, we're going to have a reconvening of the House Committee on Weaponization of Government. And what that will mean is they'll go through a list of things, again, that people have gotten used to living with that people like, benefits that people like. And they'll be looking to cut back on those party, now it's a crazy political party, the Republican Party, seriously interested again in marching this country backward. And Molly, as you point out in your piece, we don't have to go back very far to show that the panic about polls was unwarranted. You go back a couple of weeks to some of these special elections that we saw, gubernatorial elections, or just go back a year ago to the midterms where there was talk on the night, on election night, of a coming red wave. Obviously, that didn't happen because of the issue of abortion and democracy,

two things that, again, will be on the ballot next year. And both those things polled fairly poorly. You'll remember right before that election, people were saying, what's Biden doing going out there and talking about democracy? People aren't interested in that. So I would say and I think Barnacle is a really good point. Polls are shadows, not substance. Right. This is this Daniel Bornstein idea from the 60s that you you can't. These are these are not their pseudo events. They're not organic events. And so you should treat them as another data point. I mean, I'm not saying to ignore all polls. I'm just saying that they shouldn't drive

coverage the way they often do. Richard, what's your sense of how foreign policy might play a year from now? Obviously, the war in Israel is top of mind, particularly a lot of young voters who say they don't like necessarily the way that that Joe Biden is handling this and handling the relationship with Israel. Obviously, Ukraine is still there. You know, they usually say that foreign policy isn't decided the domestic election. But what's your sense of where it may play this year? I think there's an enormous gap between the impact that foreign policy would have on the election and the impact the election will have on foreign policy. That are far, far greater consequences of this election.

If it is President Biden versus President Trump, would be enormous. You know, they're not on different 40-yard lines. You've got President Biden on a 40-yard line. You've got Donald Trump in an end zone. Fundamentally different approaches. I think in terms of the election, I think right now it probably hurts the president a little bit. His focus on foreign policy, what I I worked for 41 when he was president. Americans often don't like a president being focused on foreign policy, even if he's successful. And that's what happened to George Herbert Walker Bush. I think also this problem's a little bit in the Democratic base. So one of the reasons I think the White House would love

to see things calmed in the Middle East is the president can say, I help calm them. And then he can put all of his energies and be seen to be putting all of his energies on the home front. It would be good for the president, obviously, eventually willing to have events calmed in the Middle East, a peace deal done eventually between Russia and Ukraine, as we're getting reports from the New York Times that mothers are now beginning to protest against the longer deployments, the rising deaths of Russian soldiers, of their sons, of their husbands. And that would be good news. The problem with foreign policy, it seems often, is that if you're doing it right, you can have as a politician, as a president, the common complaint that the CIA has,

which is we never get praise for the bombs that don't go off. Nobody reports about that. Those that do obviously have a massive impact. Well, Afghanistan's a great example of something goes wrong. A president will pay for that. If all of these things that Joe Biden is doing right now were going right, well, that's usually discounted by voters. But make no mistake of it. If he weren't working around the clock, stopping a regional war from beginning in the Middle East, stopping a world war from expanding and bringing Middle East, stopping a world war from expanding and bringing in Iran and China and all those who consider us enemies, it would have a major, significant impact on the economy, on the American people and, yes, on the election next year.

And it remains to be seen if a young voter will stay away from the polls or will change his or her vote going into the polls 11 months from now based on foreign policy. So we will see. Molly's new piece online now for Vanity Fair titled Let's Stop Treating Polls as Actual News Events. Amen. Molly Jungfoss, thanks so much. And Richard Haass, thank you as well. Good to see you. Still ahead, we're getting new images of the four-year-old American-Israeli Abigail Eden after her release by Hamas. Next hour, we will speak with her great aunt and cousin about her ordeal in captivity as the Israel-Hamas truce now enters its fifth day. Plus, presidential candidate Chris Christie joins the conversation

discussing his recent trip to Israel and much more. Morning Joe's coming right back. 53 past the hour, former President Jimmy Carter is expected to attend a tribute service today for his late wife, Rosalind Carter, at Glen Memorial Church in Georgia. He will be joined by President Joe Biden and the first lady, as well as Vice President Kamala Harris and the second gentleman, former President Bill Clinton, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and all of the surviving former first ladies. And former First Lady Rosalyn Carter died at her home in Plains, Georgia, last week. Her casket arrived at the Carter Presidential Center in Atlanta to lie in repose yesterday, and her funeral will be held tomorrow at the Baptist Church in Plains, Georgia, where the Carters worshipped. MSNBC will have live coverage of the tribute today. And on Capitol Hill, Republican Congressman George Santos may soon be kicked out of Congress. House Speaker Mike Johnson weighed in ahead of a potential

expulsion vote this week. I've spoken to Congressman Santos at some length over the holiday and talked to him about his options, but we'll have to see. It's not yet determined, but we'll be talking about that when we get back tomorrow. Santos responded to Johnson's comments, posting on social media that the talks were positive and he would stand for his expulsion vote instead of resigning. Santos has maintained he did nothing wrong.