Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/30/23

Episode Date: November 30, 2023

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger dies at 100

Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Thursday, November 30th. We have a lot to get to this morning, including the latest on the temporary truce in Gaza. Israel and Hamas agreed to extend it one more day, but there are signs those talks are becoming more contentious. We'll get a live report from Jerusalem in just a moment. Also ahead, President Joe Biden was on the road yesterday pushing his message on the economy, jobs and the contrast between his administration and former President Trump. But he's dropped a key phrase from his speeches. We'll tell you what it is and why he may not be using it anymore. It comes as Donald Trump continues to rail against a policy that is popular with many Americans. Plus, we'll take a look at the life and legacy of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, who passed away yesterday at the age of 100.

Along with Joe, Willie and me, we have columnist and associate editor for The Washington Post, David Ignatius, White House editor for Politico, Sam Stein and NBC News chief foreign affairs correspondent and host of Andrea Mitchell reports. Andrea Mitchell is here and Joe. Andrea was just telling me a story of when she heard the news about the passing of Henry Kissinger. I think we all took a moment to reflect when when the news broke. Well, so much to reflect on, as The New York Times said this morning, rightfully. He was he was a hugely significant figure in U.S. foreign policy and American politics. I had no idea he was on the cover. And for those of us a little bit older, this actually used to mean something in a significant way. He was on the cover of Time magazine 15 times. And one of those times, David Ignatius did not make his boss, Richard Nixon, very happy. It

was one time called Nixon and Kissinger Men of the Year in 1972. But a very complex legacy, as well as, I must just say on a personal note, a very complicated relationship with Mika's father. So, Joe, he did have a complicated relationship with Mika's dad. He and Zbigniew Brzezinski really were the two towering foreign policy intellectuals of their time. And a striking thing was that at the funeral of Zbigniew Brzezinski, John Henry, the head of a think tank called the Center for Strategic and International Studies that Kissinger had been very close to, read a letter from Henry Kissinger in which he expressed deep regret that he'd never really said all the things of admiring and praiseworthy of Zbignack that he had wanted to in his lifetime. It was a moment that I think everybody in the audience has never forgotten.

It showed to me how complicated a person Kissinger was. He was struggling, striving as a young immigrant to make it in foreign policy with the patronage of the Rockefellers, other prominent people in America. He was a genuinely brilliant person who, in his first book, set forth the way he looked at the world. It was about stability. His model was the Congress of Vienna, if viewers can remember that, in 1815, which established peace in Europe for 100 years and Kister was fascinated. How did that happen? He continued to be that that diplomat, that balance of power player in the old European sense through his career. He did things we admire. He did some things that I think most people would think were just dreadful. But such a complicated person. Yeah, he really, really was. And it is a shame Mike

Barnicle's not with us today because of course, Mike covered the Congress of the NN, 1815. We'll talk to Mike about that tomorrow. I'm sorry, Ann, it's just a joke, but we're going to talk much more Mika about, about Henry Kissinger's legacy. I will just say really quickly, yes, your father and Dr. Kissinger, about as extreme rivals as you could be while working together. Just read Dr. Brzezinski's diaries to see that. And yet, he very complimented, he wept, he wept, John Henry said, Henry said when hearing of the news and wrote a beautiful letter to your mother and your family. So but we'll be talking about that legacy ahead. I'm sure you have thoughts. Well, no, I just think I sort of in my mind celebrate the moments when they would get together on stage or around a table and they would spar in a joyful way over issues because, Willie, they both had a deep appreciation

for the complexity of global issues like the ones we're facing today in Ukraine and trying to bring together NATO and also, of course, the war in the Middle East, which is our top story this morning. Willie, it is. And by the way, Mike Barnicle is in fact here today. He's warming up in the bullpen, Joe. And he wants you to know he was on pool duty that day in the autumn of 1814 for the Globe. So he'll update us on that. OK, but let's let's get to our top story. Israel and Hamas have agreed to extend the pause in fighting by another day. The two sides struck the deal overnight, just minutes before the truce was set to expire. This as Israel and Hamas had last minute disagreements over which hostages should be free. In a statement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explained the Israeli government gave Hamas a deadline to provide a list of women and children who will be released next.

Warning if that does not happen, the fighting will resume. Netanyahu says that deadline was then met. Officials say the terms of this extended pause are the same as before, in which Hamas must release 10 hostages in exchange for Israel freeing 30 Palestinian prisoners. Negotiators have been hoping to get an even longer pause in the fighting as the humanitarian crisis in Gaza is worsening. Before the pause in fighting was extended, Hamas released 16 hostages, including one American. The group consisted of 10 Israelis, four Thai nationals and two Israeli-Russian dual citizens. 49-year-old Liat Benin was among the nine or so Americans believed to be held captive in Gaza. We don't

have an exact number, nor does the White House, of how many Americans are being held. They think it's between seven and ten. She and four-year-old Abigail Adan are the only Americans to have been released since the truce began on Friday. Joining us now from Jerusalem, NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel. So, Richard, another day, another 24-hour extension. They're coming in small increments, but another batch of hostages released, which is good news. It is good news, but I can tell you things are not looking nearly as encouraging today as they

were when we spoke yesterday. Yesterday, there was hope that it could be a two-day, a two-day-plus extension of this truce, that there could be a path to potentially a wider deal. But in the 11th hour, this truce was agreed to only be extended by one day. There was a major disagreement when Hamas put forward an initial list saying they were going to hand over seven hostages and the bodies of three hostages who were killed, according to Hamas and Israeli airstrikes. And Israel rejected that. And the talks do seem to be, I don't want to say breaking down, but entering into a much more complicated phase. So we are now only in a one day extension. And then there's tension building around this around this negotiation. There was a shooting attack here in Jerusalem this morning, according to Israeli police.

Two Palestinians from from here in Jerusalem, from East Jerusalem, attacked a group of Israelis, killing three of them, wounding several others, three of them in serious condition. And then yesterday, there was a raid in the West Bank city of Jenin, and two Palestinian boys were killed. They were buried last night in the darkness, which is very unusual for Muslim burials because the people were afraid that the Israeli military would raid Jenin again. So tensions are already starting to escalate significantly as the talks are starting to break down. So I think we could be entering into perhaps the final hours or the final day of this truce before Israel resumes its military campaign against Gaza. But doing that has costs. Doing that has costs for the people of Gaza, obviously, according to the health ministry in Gaza run by Hamas. About 15,000 people in Gaza have already been killed.

And for Israel, there's the cost. There is the cost that it will once again face an international public relations backlash if it starts its military campaign against Gaza, particularly in the south. And it could slow or stop this process that we're seeing now where Hamas has been slowly releasing some of its hostages in exchange for relatively low level Palestinian prisoners. So it's not over until it's over. But this morning, Willie, things are not looking very good. So it's not over until it's over. But this morning, Willie, things are not looking very good. So, Richard, when the fighting resumes, as you suggest, it may happen very soon from the Israeli side. We've been talking to military experts in the last couple of days who say they expect

it to be perhaps more targeted from the Israeli side, meaning special forces, special operations, looking for hostages, perhaps less bombing. Is that your sense of things as Israel is aware with a little nudge from the White House, perhaps that it needs to stop killing civilians as it looks for Hamas? That is the messaging that has come from the White House. The White House has quite publicly been briefing journalists, making public statements, saying that that's what it wants Israel to do, that if Israel does go ahead and resume its bombing campaign, it wants it to be more targeted this time, not just using heavy bunker buster bombs in crowded refugee camps like it did in Jebelia and other parts of the northern Gaza Strip. But we will see if that happens. Israel's consistent argument has been that Hamas uses human shields, that it puts its tunnels under civilian areas, and that there is only so much that it can do. So we will see if it is more of a targeted campaign. Israel may claim that it is carrying out a more targeted campaign. And Hamas and the people in Gaza could easily claim that Israel is carrying out indiscriminate bombings.

So a more targeted campaign is a bit of a degree of perception. So I'm not sure that necessarily we're going to see a campaign that is bloodless and that will be accepted by by the world. We will see what happens, frankly. NBC News chief foreign correspondent Richard Engel reporting live from Jerusalem again this morning. Thank you, as always, Richard. We appreciate it. So, Joe, another one day extension here in the truce and fighting. We may be running out of time, as Richard said, at these sort of 24 hour extensions to get hostages out, could see fighting again soon. And maybe running out of hostages. We still don't know how many hostages are still alive. We don't know how many hostages were killed. The women who were brutally raped and

then taken into captivity. Chances are good we will never see them again sadly tragically because Hamas is so barbaric and it's Israel finds itself in from the very start a no-win situation they endured the worst slaughter of Jews since the holocaust then they dealt with the kidnappings where Hamas, you have a terrorist group, Hamas, who kidnapped women, children, three-month-old babies. And, you know, of course, Hamas has always used their people as human shields. You know, I said at the beginning of this, Willie, that for Hamas, a dead Jew was the same as a dead Palestinian. I think I had my calculations wrong. I think Hamas figured out that a dead Palestinian that they used as a human shield was worth 10 dead Jews. Hamas has known exactly how this was going to play out from the very beginning when they when they raped and brutalized women,

drove them around and other Palestinians were beating them and brutalizing sometimes dead corpses. When they burned babies in the crib, shot babies multiple times in the cribs, Hamas knew what they were doing, and they knew exactly how this would unfold. They would take hostages, put them in tunnels underground. The Israelis would have to come and try to destroy an organization that did the most heinous things and killed more Jews since the Holocaust. And then the world would go up in arms because they had to go to a densely populated area to try to root out the terrorists who did this to their women, to their children, to their grandmothers and grandfathers. So here we are in Andrea. Israel finds itself in a position where it has to root out Hamas.

It has to destroy the terror organization. They have no other choice. In such a confined space, you know this so much better than any of us. In such a confined space, you cannot live, you know, a wall cannot separate you from a governing body that came over on October 7th and did the savage things they did to Israelis.

But help us out here. What does a Biden administration think? What do Israelis think, Andrea, about the unfolding situation? The longer this pause goes on, the more this terrorist organization regroups and the more hostages that are released, great, great news for the Israelis and for all of us seeing these joyous pictures. But also Hamas, as The New York Times reported yesterday, gains more power in the West Bank because they're seen as the great liberators of Palestinian hostages. It seems everywhere Israel turns, they face a more difficult choice. So what's the next step here? It's so difficult.

It's obviously the most complicated foreign policy issue that any of our leaders, that any of us have ever faced as analysts. Basically, the administration is now beginning to pivot slightly. There are those in the administration who really are trying to persuade the one decider, the president of the United States, that the bear hug was important at the beginning, but that it can't be continuing given the civilian casualties. And even if the Hamas numbers of 15,000 civilian dead are exaggerated, you're still talking about thousands and thousands

of people, the devastation, which tactically is losing a lot of force for Israel. And the argument is now publicly as well as privately, they have to change tactics. They have to use precision weapons, which we are helping to provide. They have to figure out not to use the dumb bombs, the bunker busters that they initially used on the refugee camp, for instance, that they can't go in hard and heavy in the south where 80 percent of the population has been at their own direction, moved from the north into so-called safe zones because there's just no way to do it. They have to use more ground forces, which will increase, of course, the casualty rate of the IDF. So there are tradeoffs. They are preparing for

right now. And they're trying to persuade Israel to do a better job of controlling what they view with the administration views itself as the extremist settlers. This was spoken at the United Nations Security Council yesterday by our U.N. ambassador in a very balanced approach. But she said that they have to do something to prevent a real uprising on the West Bank, because that will be too fun. So what we have is Secretary of State Blinken on his third trip there in Israel, you know, waking up today and also going to Ramallah to see the Palestinians. So they're they're trying to balance that. And most importantly, Bill Burns still in Qatar trying to negotiate a longer ceasefire.

They do think that they have controlled to the best extent that they can with the help of U.S. intelligence. Now, the overflights, the Reaper drones. They're doing a better job. They can't get to the tunnels, but they're doing a better job of at least getting intelligence on Hamas rebuilding. And they've got to figure out a way, yes, to get into the tunnels. But what they're trying to do is try to get an agreement that would include the adult-age men, the IDF women, and some of the other hostages to extend this.

But that is now looking less and less, less and less probable. So, David, let's talk a little bit more about this dilemma that Biden administration finds itself in. To Andrew's point, there still have some hopes about extending this ceasefire to get more hostages out. But that hope seems to be waning at least somewhat. We reported yesterday that we had the president muse over the weekend that he might be open to attaching conditions to aid to Israel. Administration officials, the White House knocked that down yesterday. That's something that's not on the table. They are delivering the message to Israel. Hey, your strikes need to be targeted. Knock off the violence in the West Bank. Is your sense, though, that the Israelis and

Prime Minister Netanyahu in particular, are they listening? So I think Israel has to listen when its principal superpower backer expresses strong opinions. And they are listening. I think Biden has a lot of credibility in Israel after going quickly to Israel. In Israel, it was really shattered by the October 7 attacks. And as we've said, embracing Israel and also giving it some stern advice. I think this hostage release process probably does have some more time to go. There are technical difficulties now on getting the list for the next and the next. But it's my understanding, talking with people who've been involved in these negotiations, that there is agreement on the categories of individuals who will be released

in the next series of waves. And it could go all the way through to the soldiers, the Israeli soldiers who were really the prize that Hamas cares most about. So they've talked in detail, Bill Burns, our CIA director, the head of Mossad and the Qatari mediators. So I think that's still got a way to run. The issue I hear haunting administration officials and probably people in Israel is that one we see in every conflict. How does this war end? How in the end does Israel achieve its goal of destroying the political power of Hamas so it never rules Gaza again? And who maintains stability in that? Is Netanyahu the person who can do that? So, you know, Mika, it's very hard to find an Israeli who thinks that Benjamin Netanyahu will be prime

minister after this war ends. He's become quite unpopular in Israel. Right. So, Sam Stein, while, you know, there are this hope of more hostages and don't know how many if there are. But the psychological need to bring these family members home is huge in terms of the overall makeup of moving forward in this war, trying to get to solutions. But at the same time, as Andrea pointed out, ground forces might be needed as opposed to the bunker busters. And we all know that Hamas is preparing for that during this pause every single moment they can. Right. Well, Joe underlined the main issue here, which is that the long-term solution is complicated by the short-term tactics. And so Hamas's popularity is gaining because of the release of these Palestinian prisoners, which in turn complicates Netanyahu's vision for a post-Hamas Gaza. And when you hear Netanyahu interviewed whenever he does press, and he's pressed on this issue,

which David articulated about, OK, what comes next after the invasion? There's not actually sound answers, not really anything he can say. It's plainly that Hamas cannot be in charge, but also the Palestinian Authority cannot be in charge. There's not a political entity in Gaza that anyone can identify that will then come into power. And so if that is the case, what is the post-invasion reality? Or is there a post-invasion reality? Does the IDF have to stay there and be a sort of de facto ruling body? And if so, doesn't that just increase the popularity of Hamas? Obviously, very complicated political questions. But this is the issue that Netanyahu hasn't really tackled, at least as I can see it, which is, sure, short-term tactics, fine. We understand

root out Hamas. Sure. A hostage situation where you negotiate hostage release makes a lot of sense. But eventually you run out of hostages to release. And you have to have a long-term political solution or diplomatic solution to here. Nothing has been laid out. And if anything, you can make the argument that the sheer force with which he's gone into Gaza and discriminated to a degree has complicated that long-term political solution for Israel. Joe. David, I want to circle back to something we talked about a few weeks ago about the end game here. Israel and Gaza is not an option. I mean, there's a reason Israelis left in 2005. Hamas and Gaza is not an option. Doesn't it seem that the only option at one point, at some point, the only option is to perhaps have a United Nations force with Arab countries in charge.

Sunni Arab countries running that peacekeeping force, obviously, with the United States playing a very active role, because, as you know, as I've heard, diplomats and the region say, well, we're not going to be there unless the United States is fully invested and has our back. Isn't that where we have to end up here? So, Joe, that's exactly where President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken would like this story to end. They've said so. Biden in an op-ed piece in the Washington Post, Blinken in a speech in Tokyo. That is the U.S. preferred course. The problem is that it requires several things. First, it requires the defeat of Hamas. And that's something that we're increasingly queasy about because it involves such terrible loss of civilian Palestinian life that the world just isn't comfortable watching that. So that's the first problem. The second problem is obviously who's going to go in and enforce, stabilize Gaza after Hamas? It's easy to say that our Arab friends

will do it, but so far they're saying, we don't want to ride in on the back of an Israeli tank. We're not comfortable with that. We could get other countries, presumably, who've been helpful in U.N. peacekeeping missions. Scandinavian countries, perhaps Japan, other others you can think of. But, Joe, you're describing what everybody would like to see. But there's still a huge distance to getting there. And that's precisely what I think people in the NSC are talking about right now this week. Yeah, we're going to continue this. And Mika, that's why, forgive me, a slight delay here. Mika, let me just say, as we wrap this up, that's why it is so critical that at some

point Israel moves forward beyond the Netanyahu era if this is to happen. And everybody knows that. I mean, everybody around the world knows that. Everybody around the Middle East knows that. The Israelis know that. I understand, again, we all have to keep this in context. We talked about the first month being like the day after 9-11. So obviously no one rests there. But we're going to get to a stage where there's going to have to be a new leader in Israel that will allow us to look forward to that day. Because as David Ignatius said, as a lot of brilliant foreign policy mindset at the beginning of this war. Conduct this war with with the day after the war ends in mind.

And so so so we understand what happened in the phase right after the attacks. But it has come at a heavy, heavy cost for Israel around the region. And they need to move to the next phase at some point quickly. They have to move to the next phase. We're going to continue this conversation, of course, and also coming up more on the news that broke late last night. Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger dying at the age of 100 at his home in Connecticut. He was national security advisor twice, an advisor to many presidents and had a great impact on foreign policy and the world. We'll have more on his life and legacy ahead. Also ahead, Donald Trump

is doubling down on his calls to replace the Affordable Care Act. We'll show you his new comments about Obamacare and go over some of his other unpopular positions as he seeks a second term in the White House. We're back in 60 seconds. After the death of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger at the age of 100. NBC Nightly News anchor Lester Holt reports on the life and legacy of the controversial figure who played a major role in American diplomacy for decades. Thank you. Nice to see you all. He was brilliant, ambitious, controversial,

and one of the most influential secretaries of state in American history. I think we made further progress. Henry Kissinger served Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, and was consulted by presidents of both parties on international issues throughout his life. Henry Kissinger has been a friend of mine. Nixon made him a national figure, and together they reimagined U.S. foreign policy, detente with the Soviet Union, relations with China, shuttle diplomacy in the Middle East. Kissinger helped shape Nixon's policy in Vietnam

and negotiated an end to the war, famously declaring success prematurely just days before the 1972 election. We believe that peace is at hand. He was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize. Nothing that has happened to me in public life has moved me more than this award. Though his co-recipient, North Vietnam's Le Duc Tho, declined the honor. Four years later, President Ford awarded him the Medal of Freedom. He was a master of pragmatic, big-picture diplomacy, but he had his critics, who described him as manipulative and insecure.

Some called him a war criminal for his role in bombing Cambodia and widening the war in Vietnam. Born in Germany in 1923, Kissinger's Jewish family fled to America as Hitler rose to power. He became a U.S. citizen, served in World War II, and earned a Ph.D. at Harvard, where he became a professor. He caught the eye of Richard Nixon, who made him National Security Advisor, then Secretary of State,

the only person ever to hold both jobs simultaneously. There is no country in the world where it is conceivable that a man of my origins could be standing here next to the president of the United States. But their relationship was complicated, and White House tapes reveal that Kissinger sometimes enabled the worst in Nixon. It was a very curious relationship because we were not personally very close. The night before he resigned in disgrace, Nixon asked Kissinger to

kneel and pray with him. And of course it was a crushing event, but I think of that evening as an experience with dignity and it was very moving. Kissinger was no faceless bureaucrat. He was a world-renowned celebrity. I loved you for an accident. And he loved the spotlight. He was even something of a pop culture icon. After leaving government, he opened his own consulting firm, remaining active and sought after for decades. At 95, eulogizing John McCain's life, Kissinger sounded a wistful note about his own. Like most people of my age, I feel a longing for what is lost and cannot be restored. Henry Kissinger was a man of great accomplishment and controversy. But as he once told NBC's Barbara Walters, he had no regrets.

If I had to do it over again, I would do again substantially the same way, which may make me unreconstructed. Maybe one reason why I'm at peace with myself. NBC's Lester Holt reporting and Mike Barnicle joins us now. Mike, you look at the scope of Henry Kissinger's influence. Twelve presidents he advised either formally or informally from JFK to Joe Biden. Think about that. And within that, as Lester pointed out, there's a lot of stuff that a lot of people object to. Some people call him a war criminal for what happened in Cambodia and Laos as well. So influential, important, but also a mixed legacy for Henry Kissinger.

Mixed legacy, but highly brilliant, highly controversial. Helped shape American foreign policy across several decades through, as you pointed out, several presidents. One glaring error, Henry Kissinger, we just heard him say if he had everything to do all over again, he would do it substantially the same way. Well, from January 1969, when Richard Nixon was sworn in as president and Henry Kissinger was his national security advisor and later as secretary of state from January of 1969 till 1974-Taux in Paris for about a year and a half. And people were getting killed each and every day. That was just totally outrageous.

And history doesn't lie. And his legacy will endure. His legacy will be honored for several good reasons, obviously. But history ought to reflect the negative aspects as well. Andrea Mitchell, you covered Henry Kissinger closely over the years. What about his legacy stands out to you? Well, and acknowledging what Michael just said, what Mike Barnico just said, I got to know him very well. And just after his 100th birthday, he was at the Council on Foreign Relations giving a talk on artificial intelligence. So the fact that till his very death, he was writing on AI. And of course,

the trip to China this summer in July to see President Xi Jinping, he was always active and always curious and never stopped thinking and working and creating, really. I do remember a number of years ago with the CSIS, the think tank here in Washington. It was one of his birthdays in the 90s. And Zygmika's dad was in the audience. And that rivalry that went all the way back to when one was at Harvard and the other was at Columbia. And then there are different roles in foreign policy. It was two intellectual giants sparring. And they began kind of teasing each other in a friendly but still. Relentlessly.

You were there, Amik, I think, in the audience. And we were all sort of watching this play out. You know, two men still vigorous intellectually. And it was just extraordinary, the amount of intellectual firepower that he brought to it. His last book on China was really brilliant. So, you know, he never stopped. And I admired that as well as he was very sentimental. And it was a great sense of humor and a charm, which obviously did carry him through those Nixon years as well.

And and devoted to his wife, Nancy. Absolutely. You know, David Ignatius, Andrew, he was talking about and you talked about about Kissinger as well as Dr. Brzezinski. I thought it was fascinating looking at Lester Holt's package. It's just fascinating that you had Henry Kissinger, Madeleine Albright and Dr. Brzezinski, all three of their families chased out of Europe by the rise of Adolf Hitler. All three came to America just just achieving towering heights in American foreign policy. I do want to draw a distinction, though, not not for purposes of of legacy building or legacy smashing, but just draw some real distinctions to get more of an insight into who Henry Kissinger was. The great contrast between Kissinger and Brzezinski. Kissinger was a shapeshifter constantly. He could he you know,

he could be what Nixon wanted him to be and often was behind the scenes. He could be what if he was talking to Hillary Clinton or Bill Clinton again, change the Iraq war. He supported the Iraq war at the beginning and then moved in another direction. And then, of course, he was Jared Kushner talked to him constantly in the Trump administration. So he he he could he could move politically. He was a master tactician politically, whereas Dr. Brzezinski was, well, Dr. Brzezinski. He told you what he thought, whether you liked it or not. He was he was extraordinarily blunt. But I will just say and I will say perhaps this is because I've studied Dr. Brzezinski's legacy. I think on the big question about the Soviet Union falling, I think, you know, and others have said this,

Kissinger was the pessimist, Brzezinski was the optimist. And Brzezinski got that right. The big question of their time, he got right. But Kissinger, again, Kissinger continued, continued in public service on the sidelines for 50 years after he left the White House, because, again, he he just was very skilled at ingratiating himself with with with leaders. There was a part of Henry Kissinger, Joe, that was a courtier. He loved being with the powerful. He loved advising them. He was good at it. People listened to what he had to say. People from my boss, Catherine Graham, to presidents over the years were extraordinarily attentive to everything that Kissinger said or wrote. And often it was very, very much focused.

He was a man for all seasons. Whatever the political moment was, Henry Kissinger had something useful and relevant to say about it. One striking point of comparison with Nika's dad, Zbigniew Brzezinski, is Iraq. Zbigniew Brzezinski, with Brent Scowcroft, another national security advisor, were almost alone among foreign policy leaders in saying, this doesn't make sense. This is a mistake for the United States. Kissinger went along with it, supported it, as did most people in the foreign policy establishment. Spig didn't, and Scowcroft didn't. And I thought that was a telling moment. Just to say one other thing about Kissinger, his legacy is so full of controversy.

I've always thought that just as you were saying in setting up your piece, he was one of those great statesmen who came out of the ruin of Europe in the Second World War. He had a passion for stability. He believed that stability in itself was a prize that the United States as a superpower should seek. And that made him in some ways amoral. If stability is your primary goal, you're willing to tolerate a lot of unpleasantness, civilian death along the way. But, you know, there's no question, Joe, that he is a man who shaped the world that we live in. Wow. Andrew Mitchell, thank you for coming on this morning. I know you were busy actually talking about world affairs when this

broke on stage last night. And thank you for coming in early to talk about the legacy of Henry Kissinger. Coming up, new economic numbers came out yesterday, and they were even better than first thought. So why is a Fed official warning that there might be another interest rate hike in the future? Steve Ratner is here with the charts to break down the economic picture. It's a confusing one. That's coming up next on Morning Joe. willie you hear that it's not a cash register this is a comcast commerce tree lit up kids uh gonna be driven into a spending frizz and frenzy over this and why not our economy um revisions for the third quarter i mean these are numbers you just don't really see these days.

But over 5 percent growth in the U.S. economy, 5.2 percent rate in the third quarter. That's, again, comparing us to the rest of the world. That's pretty extraordinary. It is. And remember, the number was eye popping already. It was four point nine percent when first announced the GDP for the third quarter revised up yesterday to five point two percent growth, which is a massive number. Just one of the data points that continue for the most part to be positive about the American economy. At the same time, efforts by the Federal Reserve to tamp down inflation have prompted some warning street signs on Wall Street. Join us now, former Treasury official, Morning Joe economic analyst

Steve Ratner at the trademark Southwest Wall, ready with his charts. Steve, good morning. So let's start with the big picture here, your first chart that the economy is, in fact, getting better. Sure, Willie. First of all, I think you actually own that trademark, if I remember correctly. You coined that phrase. I turn it over to you, Steve. Well, I am deeply grateful and flattered and honored. But sure, let's talk about some good news in the economy. Inflation is moderating, as I think most people know. But just to put that in perspective, we got as high as 9.1 percent at the peak of the post-pandemic buying frenzy, shall we call it. And that is all the way down to 3.2% in the CPI. This blue line is what we call core inflation.

It's when you take out food and energy, which tend to be very volatile. And this is what the Fed looks at when it's trying to get to its 2% line right down here. So we still have a ways to go. But I would say very few economists expect this to come down as far and as fast as it has. And that means, obviously, good news for consumers in terms of what their real spending power is. So you've had wage growth throughout this period, and actually accelerated due to the low unemployment rate and the demand for workers. And it's above 4 percent. But after

inflation, Americans have been negative for a good while. But the good news is now they're positive. They may not feel it. They may not believe it. They may not watch Morning Joe to know it. But the fact is their their incomes after inflation are actually now in positive territory for the first time since the pandemic. So a couple of things, Steve. First of all, I would love for you to talk about our GDP number of over 5%, where you have Britain, I think, stuck around 1.5%, 1.6%. France, even lower. Germany, basically like 0.2%.

So talk about that and when more Americans feel that and also talk about how this inflation tamping down is great news. But but it's sort of a lagging indicator because Americans are still looking at items that when they go to the grocery store, when they go to the gas station, when they try to rent a home or buy a home, it's still about 20 percent higher post-COVID. Yeah, Joe, that's a good point. Look, you and I have talked a lot about why Americans are so grumpy, given that you have 5 percent growth. And I think inflation plays by far the biggest role in that, because Americans still see higher prices at the grocery store. Something like 70 percent of Americans today were not of voting age the last time we had inflation over 4 percent 30 years ago. Most Americans have never seen it, and so they don't quite know how to process it. But to your

point, a couple of things. First of all, the good news on GDP yesterday adds to the probability of us having a soft landing. We thought it was perhaps going to be necessary to have a recession in order to get that inflation down to 2%. This is Goldman Sachs' numbers, but you can see they went from a 35% probability of a recession in the next 12 months all the way down to a 15% probability of a recession in the next 12 months. And the good news on inflation may mean that the Fed can also start cutting interest rates, which is what the market is expecting now, a one percentage cut in interest rates next year. We'll see if that materializes. But to your other point, you're

right. We are by far the best house in what is really a pretty tough neighborhood of the G7, the developed countries, if you will. Our two-year growth rate throughout, you know, with some ups and downs, obviously, 1.8 percent, nothing to be wildly excited about. But compared to our friends and neighbors and allies, you can see what happens. Japan, 1.5, they're coming out of a long period of economic stagnation. Our northern neighbor, 1.4. But Europe, Europe is a mess. France at 1.1, Italy at 0.7, the UK at 0.5, and Germany, which has the problem of a war, as well as the fact that they are highly dependent on exports to China, which is obviously not going so well, barely growing at all. So you got to put us in perspective. And in the context of a somewhat difficult period for the world, we are by far doing the best. And as you say, things moving in the right direction. But your third chart shows

there are some warning signs, this big GDP number driven in part by consumer spending. But that could pull back a little bit. Yeah, Willie, one of the problems with economic statistics is they are backward looking. So the third quarter GDP number ends on September 30th. Now we're into November in the Christmas season and so forth. And we'll see how the numbers unfold. And history will tell you that you don't often know when you're having a little bit of a rough spot until after it's over. But one thing that is of some concern is that, as we've talked about before, during the pandemic, consumers amassed something like two trillion dollars of what we call excess savings, money that they couldn't spend when they were locked down, plus government stimulus

payments and other things. Part of what is fueling that five percent and all the other good numbers we've seen has been that they have been spending this money and they've spent it down. But most estimates now have it being pretty close to zero. And so at some point, they're going to have to reckon with that. And we'll see what that does to their ability to spend, as well as, of course, their happiness about their economy and their approval rate of the president. And there are some other little worrisome signs out there. For example, credit card delinquencies. Credit card interest rates are over 20 percent at the moment as a consequence of the Fed's policy. And putting a lot of this together, more people are defaulting, still a small number, 3% on their credit cards.

And you see a similar phenomenon if you look at something like auto loans, particularly by low-income Americans, the default rates there have actually also started to move up a good bit. So there's little things out there to worry about. But on balance, we do have the strongest economy in the developed world. And we shouldn't forget that. Yeah. Without a doubt, as any country in the world would would love to trade our position with theirs at the same time. Again, we've we've had a rough run post-COVID with inflation. But these numbers, Steve, look look positive and certainly look like, again, leading indicators of how Americans are going to be feeling most likely in a few months. Morning, Joe. Economic analyst Steve Ratner, as always. Thank you so much. The Southwest Wall looking more more. Look at that, Willie. It's just it's massive.

The Southwest wall. It's it's our own green monster. Thank you, Steve. So, Sam Stein, it's we look in this. I say we all talk about me and people like me'll look at polls and they will see that young people are more skeptical toward Joe Biden right now than they would expect. It's been that way for a while. Truthfully, it was that way before the war broke out, because I remember talking to John De La Volpe on these numbers can't be right. So we look for a quick, easy explanation. It must be Israel. It must be this. Well, talk about how because you're not ancient like most of us. Talk about how this economy is actually harder for younger Americans under, say, 40, who may still not be able to afford their first home, who still may be struggling with rent, who, you know, are making. I saw a Times story about a guy that was moving from California to northwest Florida because he said, I've got a six figure salary. I you know, this this would make me rich where I come from. He said, but I can't even I can't

even afford a house. I can't afford to live. I've got to move back home. Talk about how how the cost of living post-COVID inflation, even though it's finally slowing down, even though the economy is cooking, is not being felt by a lot of young Americans. And this may be contributing to those poll numbers. Well, thank you for coming to me as the young person. You guys used to make fun of me for being so young and a prep school kid or whatever. I haven't had those jokes. Well, you're not that young anymore.

Look, this is so complicated because there's so many different variables that go into the perceptions of Biden, especially among young voters. I will say, if you look at international polls, you know, and this gets to Steve's point, I suppose, which is Biden actually relative to other governing bodies and political leaders is doing well. But doesn't mean he's doing great. But other other people, other other governing leading governing bodies are struggling similarly in this current post pandemic economy. I think for young voters, though, it's kind of interesting. It's like you come out, you see mortgage interest rates really high relative to where I got my 30-year fix, thank God. But, you know, I also go back to the Obama years, right, the Great Recession. When you graduated in 2012, you probably weren't going to get a job. It was really tough. And there was tons of reports about kids staying in their parents' homes

because they're simply the economy was just not cooking. You couldn't find work. That's not the case nowadays. You can find a job nowadays. It might not be a great job. So what is it that is hurting Biden with young voters? Yes, of course, it's the cost of goods, the cost of groceries, specifically the cost of gas, the things that are very tangible that you see every day. That's tough. But I think it's a stew of things. It's the perception that he is old. It's the perception that his foreign policy is too establishment-oriented.

There are social issues, the idea that he didn't get the work done on student loan relief, the idea that voting rights are still under threat. So, you know, I think it's a whole stew of things. And that's why I think it's difficult for the White House, because they have had successes on the economy. They've tried to sell it. They've kind of dialed back a little bit of the salesmanship of that. But there's no one lever, no one button that they can push that's going to fix this. It may just be that Trump's ascension is what is the trick. Yeah, and right now, I mean, we've seen the Trump campaign

try to really court youth voters. I don't think there's much success in that. But again, if the idea is, even if these young voters aren't going to turn out for Trump or whatever the Republican is, if they simply stay home, if they're not motivated,

vote for Joe Biden, that's the issue. That is the key issue there. Youth vote correspondent, Sam Stein. Oh, wow. Promotion. Thank you very much. Coming up. A psychological promotion.

Yeah, there you go.