Morning Joe - Morning Joe 1/16/24

Episode Date: January 16, 2024

Trump easily wins the Iowa caucuses

We're going to make America great again. Again, Iowa, we love you. You are going to, oh, you just go out and buy larger tractors and more land. Don't worry about it. We thank you for your effort. We thank you for your support. You helped us get a ticket punched out of the Hawkeye State. Thank you, Iowa.

We're going to continue on. We're going to make you proud. And we're off to New Hampshire. It was an easy win for Donald Trump in last night's Iowa Republican caucuses. The NBC News decision desk and multiple other news outlets were able to project him as the winner just 35 minutes after caucusing began in the frigid temperatures, Trump ended up with 51 percent of the vote, winning 98 of the state's 99 counties, despite visiting only 15 of them. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis came in a distant second, receiving 21 percent of support in the Hawkeye state, 30 points behind Trump and just two points ahead of former South Carolina Governor

Nikki Haley. This year's Republican caucuses had the lowest turnout since the year 2000, drawing around 108,000 voters. That's about 14 percent of the state's registered Republicans. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Tuesday, January 16th. So how did the results reflect compared to the polls? Well, I think there was a big winner. I think there was a big loser. The big winner, of course, Donald Trump.

He got over 50% of the vote. The big loser, of course, the Republican Party, who was strapped with a Republican loser, a seven-time loser. And the problem for Republicans is they started in Iowa. This is just a perennial problem for the GOP. And it it really, Willie, it's a it's a problem that the Democrats fix. But you go back and you look who won in 2008. It was Mike Huckabee who won in 2000.

Was it Huckabee? Yeah, Huckabee and Santorum. Huckabee won in 2008. Santorum won in 2012. Ted Cruz won in 2016. You go back to 1988. You had televangelist Pat Robertson beating the sitting vice president of the United States, George H.W. Bush. I actually went back last night and looked at the news coverage.

L.A. Times quoted young George W. Bush saying, we got whipped. They did get whipped. But that's just you're going to read. We're going to be reading a lot of exit polls. There are going to be a lot of people. They're going to be like, oh, my God. No doubt, the Republican Party nationwide is not the party of Reagan anymore. Not even close. Not even the party of George W. Bush.

But this is a radical, in many ways, a radical electorate. If you look at what they say. And again, they have set up, once again, Donald Trump, their weakest candidate to go to the general election. And a great night for Donald Trump, given the fact that DeSantis wasn't pushed out of the race and Haley wasn't pushed out of the race. So these two continue splitting the anti-Trump vote in half. And Donald Trump loves that. You're exactly right. Donald Trump could not have asked for a better scenario than last night for the obvious,

because he won by 30 points, which is about where he was polling. But as you say, that close race between Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, separated by only about 1,400 votes, means Ron DeSantis is not going anywhere. He's not getting out of this race. In fact, he's going today to South Carolina, signaling that Nikki Haley may be better off in New Hampshire, but he likes his chances in South Carolina. We can debate that. But the point being, Donald Trump still gets two people splitting that other never Trump vote now for another month at least. And as you also pointed to, Joe, the radicalism of the party.

And we'll look at some of this. But if you look at the entrance polling from NBC News and other outlets, Republican voters have bought the big lie in overwhelming majorities believe that Joe Biden is not the legitimate president. And that will persist and that will stick to Donald Trump in a general election. So a fascinating night to study the Republican Party problems ahead in a general, perhaps if they stick with Donald Trump. But let's go over to Steve Kornacki. He's still, I think, from last night at the big board. He's, of course, the NBC News national political correspondent. So, Steve, a big, big night for Donald Trump. Yeah, I mean, look, a couple of ways to look at this. First of all, the 51 percent he finishes with the previous record

in an Iowa Republican caucus was 41 percent. You mentioned 2000 George W. Bush. He had 41 percent then Bush won Iowa. Trump 10 points north of that in the margin of victory here. It's basically 30 points. Trump over DeSantis. The previous record for a margin of victory in Iowa was 12 points Bob Dole over Pat Robertson back in 1988. So these numbers here that Trump did vastly exceed anything we've seen in an Iowa Republican caucus before. It is. Here's an interesting one. It is as close for Donald Trump to being a 99 county sweep of the state as you can get without actually getting a 99 county sweep. And what I mean is look at the one county that is not Trump's shade of red on here. It's Johnson County, where Iowa City and the University of Iowa are. And look at the result here. Donald Trump lost it to Nikki Haley by a single vote. So Donald Trump literally came one single vote away from going 99 for 99 in Iowa

last night here, just in terms of why DeSantis was able to edge out Haley for second place. Look, compared to Trump, it's not really a strong or breakout showing for either one of them, just given the history we talked about. But why was DeSantis able to edge out second place? Essentially, it's this that Haley had. And we talked about this yesterday in the run up to this. The polls were suggesting this. Haley had a coalition that was dependent on college educated, on independents, on non-Republicans, on higher income voters. They are concentrated around the state capitol, Des Moines, Polk County, Dallas County, west of that, Johnson County, which I just showed you that Nikki Haley did carry by a vote. Those are the kinds of places, Story County,

Ames, where Iowa State University is. Those are the kinds of places. She did well, very well last night in a couple of places there, maybe not quite as well as she wanted, but she was certainly very competitive where the floor fell out for Haley and where DeSantis ran up numbers on her. There's a lot of small rural counties throughout the state that individually don't add up to much in terms of the statewide vote, but that collectively do. And in those, I'll just give you a couple of examples here. Look, Van Buren County, very small. But look, Haley, single digits, just 6% right there. Take a look. Wayne County, we're down by the Missouri border. Again, you don't even see Haley in the top four in this county.

She finished behind Ramaswamy. Take a look at Ringgold County here. Again, Haley, single digits. You know, DeSantis getting blown out by Trump. But these add up. It's not a ton of numbers in any of these counties, but there's a whole bunch of these around the state. Basically, one quarter of the counties in Iowa last night, Nikki Haley finished in single digits in. There's only four where DeSantis finished in single digits.

So, you know, the gains, the strengths that Haley had in those areas of the state that are suburban, that are urban, that are metropolitan, the gains that Haley made there were eventually offset by her failure to be competitive in parts of Iowa that now are representative in many ways of the national Republican Party base. You know, these are counties I'm showing you that are small, that are rural, that are exurban, where you don't have a high degree of a concentration of college educated voters, much more working class in blue collar in nature. A lot of these voters, you know, have been swinging to the Republican Party for some time and accelerated when Donald Trump became the face of the Republican Party and Nikki Haley just doing pretty much nothing with them last night. It means for her going forward. Look, New Hampshire, it could be 45 percent of the electorate in New Hampshire next

week that is independent. You see that number in New Hampshire regularly. You really don't see it almost anywhere else. So Nikki Haley, with what she showed last night, what she's showing in the polls, could be very competitive in New Hampshire next week. The problem for her is what happens. Let's say she pulls off the upset. Let's say she's John McCain in 2000. She doesn't do much in Iowa. She goes to New Hampshire. She gets the big upset. Where does she go from there? Her home state is South Carolina. But the demographics there are very, very different than New Hampshire. And then you go a week after South Carolina, you're into Super Tuesday. You're into a lot of states. You've got Arkansas. You've got Tennessee.

You've got North Carolina. You've got Texas. You've got California, where the rules have been changed in a way that make it very easy for Donald Trump to take all 169 delegates. Those delegates can add up real fast for Donald Trump starting on Super Tuesday. And the limitations you see here that I just went through for Haley in that coalition she put together in Iowa last night, they will not necessarily loom large in New Hampshire next week, but they'll be huge in those other states I just talked about that come later. Yeah. And Steve, obviously, we can I want to stay with Iowa. But first, let's talk about what is ahead. New Hampshire, obviously ahead next week. If Nikki Haley wins there, then the space between the New Hampshire primary in South Carolina and she has a month to campaign in her home state with Donald Trump. If she wins with Donald Trump, a loser for a month, that will that will be fascinating.

We'll see what happens under those circumstances. But Donald Trump has problems in New Hampshire regardless, doesn't he? Even in the gym for, you know, and by the way, the Trump argument that, oh, you know, if Nikki Haley wins in New Hampshire, she only wins because she gets independence in a swing state. Actually, a really positive argument to make for the general election, which is independence and swing states hate me. So you can't really look at Nikki Haley beating me there. But all that being said, Donald Trump, even the head to head matchup in New Hampshire with Joe Biden, it's one of the few states right now that Biden continues to beat Donald Trump. Yeah, New Hampshire swung pretty dramatically from being one of the closest states in 2016.

Donald Trump nearly won it to being decisively for Biden in 2020. It's interesting, though, that that electability argument you're making there about Nikki Haley. Again, I mentioned John McCain 2000. I think there's a lot of shades of George W. Bush versus John McCain in 2000 and Donald Trump now versus Nikki Haley. And one of them is exactly what you just talked about. John McCain won 18 point victory in New Hampshire in 2000. Nobody saw it coming. He became a political sensation overnight. And there were general election polls. The famous one, CNN USA Today Gallup poll in that period before South Carolina. It had John McCain 22 points ahead of Al Gore back in 2000.

It had Bush doing 13 points less. McCain was saying, hey, it couldn't be any more obvious, folks. I can reach out to independents. I can reach out to Democrats. His famous line was, I'll beat George W. Bush like a drum. But what undid John McCain in 2000, I think, is a big threat to Nikki Haley and the Republican Party of 2024. Things don't change in some ways. And that is if you get the majority of your votes, if you're getting them from non-Republicans, and that is what John McCain was doing back in 2000, core Republican voters will look at you with suspicion. And George W. Bush in 2000 was able to make that race a loyalty test to Republican voters. Are you with the

Republican candidate, he would say, or are you with the candidate of the mischievous Democrats, of the media, of the non-Republicans? And Donald Trump, what he will be able to do, what he can do with Haley, even with what we saw in Iowa last night with her coalition, and if she wins New Hampshire on the back of independence, he'll be able to make a similar loyalty argument. But I think he'd make it more personal because we see this more than three quarters of Haley's voters say they've got a negative view of Donald Trump. And we see in the Trump era Republican Party that when a Republican gets identified as being the face of anti-Trump voters, anti-Trump forces, anti-Trump messages, Republican voters who like Donald Trump and they

are still the vast majority of the Republican Party, they tend to turn on that candidate. Ask Chris Christie. He left the race with poisonous numbers with Republican voters. Ask Mike Pence. Same thing. Ask Asa Hutchinson. All of them, they are the only three candidates who had upside down numbers in terms of favorability with Republican voters this past year. And it had everything to do with being identified with the antagonism towards Trump. And if Nikki Haley pulls off New Hampshire, her challenge, that's a very difficult needle to thread, because the lesson of the Trump era is when you become seen as the face of the non-Republicans and the Trump resistant crowd, Republicans turn on you and

they turn on you hard. And in fact, we're seeing in South Carolina after New Hampshire, Haley's polling much worse in her home state of South Carolina than she is in New Hampshire. So, Steve, let's look at some of those entrance poll numbers I mentioned from NBC News and what they say about the electorate, at least in Iowa. A majority of Republican voters last night, well above 60 percent, believe the big lie. They believe that Joe Biden lost the election. Also, 65, 66 percent of voters say that even if Donald Trump is convicted of the crimes he's facing now this year, 65 percent say he still is fit to be president. So this party, by the way, that's among all voters among Trump voters. Those numbers go way up even higher. So they have bought his story. They have bought his version

of events inside the party. Well, we've been seeing this for a long time, Willie. In fact, I think it's a story that's fundamental to Donald Trump's dominance that we saw last night and his dominance in the national polls right now. It's that core Republican voters see the legal situation around Trump. And I know there's all sorts of different areas here. I'll just say the legal situation to keep it simple. But they see the legal situation as an attack, as a politically motivated attack on Donald Trump. You can make up your own mind whether that's fair or not.

But look at this. I think this tells the story. This is the trend line of the national Republican race from the very beginning of 2023 until we are this morning. And again, this is like it wasn't that long ago. But I want to remind folks in the early months of 2023 and the last month of 2022, December 2022, coming off that 2022 midterm where the Republicans underperformed, where the Trump aligned candidates lost key races that cost Republicans the Senate and other major offices. Trump was running. This is the national

average. DeSantis never caught him in the national average. But we would routinely see polls in January and February of 2023 that had DeSantis within 10 points of Trump. There were polls. I go find you five of them right now that had DeSantis ahead nationally of Donald Trump. The atmosphere in early 23 was, well, Republicans are moving on from Trump. They're sick of the losing. They've had new years of this act. They're going to look for other options here. That's why so many candidates step forward. And look where the lines diverge. Look where the Trump line takes off. Look where the DeSantis line kind of flatlines and nobody's moved up. What week was that? That is literally the week that Donald Trump was indicted on the first of the charges in

Manhattan on the stormy Daniels matter. And there was is unquestionable to me when you look at these numbers and you just if you were apply all the little legal dates that popped up throughout the year to this, they triggered a rally around Trump effect among core Republicans. I say again, they clearly see this as politically motivated. They see this as Trump's opponents using the legal system to go after him. And they responded that way by rallying around him. You literally see it the week of that first indictment. And that has been the story since. All right, Steve Kornacki, pause right there. We're going to be back in one minute with John Hellman live from Iowa. 17 past the hour, we're following Donald Trump's big win in Iowa.

Let's bring in NBC News National Affairs Analyst John Heilman in Iowa and the host of way too early White House Bear Chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire. John Heilman, what are you seeing, especially in the exit polling? Steve Kornacki just drew a very stark line showing the support for Donald Trump lining up with his indictments. Well, first of all, I'd say, Mika, you know, that you guys talked this earlier about the big winners and big losers here, big winner, obviously Donald Trump here, you know, all the way into the afternoon yesterday, the Trump campaign had been a little nervous over the course of the last few days leading into the caucuses.

They had set expectations. They were going to clear 50 percent. Their late polling showed them not making those expectations. They started worrying about the weather and the first time caucus goers are trying to get out there. And there was a little, you know, the whole attack Vivek Ramaswamy thing was a sort of a tell that they were starting to get a little worried that not that Trump wasn't going to win, but that they weren't going to be able to get over 50 percent, which was really a key indicator for them. They obviously got that done last night and kind of surpassed their own expectations in some way internally. So a big win, obviously, for Donald Trump. The big loss here, as you guys said, I think really is for anybody who hopes to stop Donald Trump from

being the nominee. And I think, you know, you really have to look, you know, we got very fixated on this. Who's going to win second place, particularly because there was a chance if Nikki Haley had won second place, second place, clearly that she would have, you know, DeSantis would have had to drop out. She would have had Trump one on one, which everyone understands is like if there's going to be a way to beat Trump, it's going to be to get him one-on-one. Now we're not going to have him one-on-one. Both of these candidates, Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, they're both going to argue. They got the second ticket out of Iowa.

They, you know, DeSantis, I came in second. DeHaley says, I can win New Hampshire. Bottom line is they both got creamed here. They both lost by 30-plus points. No one here has ever won an Iowa caucus, and the Republicans died by more than 12 until last night. So both of these candidates walk out of here weakened and hobbled. If you had to say who has the path, Nikki Haley last night kind of claimed that it was her. I think, although it's kind of, in some level, illogical to say that you came in third,

and you're the one with the ticket out of Iowa, you're the one with the path. The truth is, as David Plouffe pointed out on our air last night, in these races, you got to win something at some point. And it's that simple. Forget about what happens after New Hampshire. The bottom line is of Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, the one who has a chance to win a primary in the foreseeable future is Nikki Haley. She doesn't have a great chance against Donald Trump, but she comes out of here with enough of momentum and enough funds, enough dollars on hand that she can win. You can say whatever you want about the New Hampshire primary and how it's different from the rest of the Republican electorate. It's true. But you still, if you're going to beat Donald Trump, you're going to have to beat him somewhere first. And Nikki Haley has a chance to do that,

a chance in New Hampshire. And I think that's the ultimate story here. What happens after that is tomorrow's problem. Right now, you've got a New Hampshire race coming up. And Nikki Haley is the only person in the Republican Party right now who has a chance to win a race against Donald Trump. And so even though she finished in a little disappointing fashion last night, she can make that argument. I think it's right. Right. You spend a lot of time, John, in Iowa, of course, over this past weekend. But you've been to Iowa an awful lot over the past 20 years. I'm curious, what was your big takeaway this weekend on Donald Trump and his lasting power and the Republican Party? Not just in Iowa, but how they represent larger forces as well as the movement.

I think I think I think people who Democrats who say we have a candidate, Trump has a movement. They probably see that more in Iowa and states like that than anywhere else. What was your big takeaway this weekend? Well, number one, and I know it's I know it's not always popular to speak well of Donald Trump, and I'm not going to speak well of him himself, but of Donald Trump himself. But Donald Trump, if you remember, Joe, 2016, the Trump campaign was a joke. It was not a serious thing. And there's a lot of people who say if they'd had a reasonable campaign and a reasonable operation here, they should have won that race. They come into caucus night with leading in the polls. And then Ted Cruz, better organized, better campaign,

more harnessed the evangelical movement. You know, and Ted Cruz was able to steal Iowa from them. The difference to 2024 and 2016 on the Trump campaign is night and day. The campaign itself is now a professional operation. The story of Trump being able to actually organize in the caucuses, something he didn't do in 2016, his ability to turn people out, his ability to dominate the evangelical vote, which he never did in 2016, those are signs that not that Trump is any more popular or that he's any less toxic or that he doesn't have any of the problems that you point out all the time. We all point out that he has in a general election. But the one advantage he did that he showed here that I think he's going to carry forward is that he now has an actual professional

campaign operation around him. The fact that they were able to get to 51 and the fact that they did it on a night that was five below zero with a negative 30 wind chill. People were saying coming into the caucus night last night that they were going to have a record low attendance. You would have had to be below 100,000. I think below like the previous low ever here was 89 or 98,000. I can't remember which. People thought they weren't going to make it last night. They made it over 100. The turnout was still low, but the Trump people got their people out last night. And that is a sign that this is a team that's more organized and more professional. I do think you're obviously. And that is a sign that this is a team that's more organized and more professional. I do think you're obviously right. This is a very, it's not an outlier state

exactly because the dynamics in this state are very similar across the South. I mean, the results that Trump racked up last night here, he's going to be able to replicate across large swaths of the Sunbelt, large parts of the Deep South, large parts of the Mountain West. So Iowa is definitely not a reflection of the general election in America. It's not going to be a swing state in 2024. It's not going to be Georgia or Michigan or Wisconsin or Arizona even. But it is, in terms of the Republican Party, it is actually pretty representative of what gives Trump so much strength going forward into the terms of the Republican Party. It is actually pretty representative of what gives Trump so much strength going forward into the rest of this nomination fight.

This this state does look a lot like the stronghold that Trump has, the bulwark he has against anybody. Nikki Haley, Radisson is anybody else. This state is representative of the way which Trump has transformed the Republican Party into the MAGA party. One other note, Vivek Ramaswamy finished way back in fourth place, dropped out of the race and predictably, despite the fact he was attacked for the last several days by Donald Trump, endorsed Donald Trump. So, Jonathan Lemire, this effectively, if you look at the polling, was the outcome we predicted in terms of a margin, in terms of the dominance of Donald Trump. What maybe wasn't exactly predicted was how close DeSantis and Haley would be, leaving them both in the race to continue to split the vote in favor of Donald Trump. What maybe wasn't exactly predicted was how close DeSantis and Haley

would be, leaving them both in the race to continue to split the vote in favor of Donald Trump. So that's the best possible outcome for Donald Trump. Not only does he put up an impressive win, and yes, all the caveats that Hyman just mentioned, it's still a pretty low turnout. It's a small percentage of the Republican vote in a very, very white state that doesn't tell us much about November 2024, but it does tell us about the Republican primary process right now. Trump gets the win he wants. His ground game was impressive. And both DeSantis and Haley can claim that they're still alive.

And as long as they're out there splitting the vote, because New Hampshire is so important, and I think clearly Haley has a shot to win New Hampshire. I'm not saying a great shot, but has a shot. But even if DeSantis hangs around and puts up a, you know, six, seven, eight, ten points, if some of that would have gone to Haley, maybe that's the difference. Ramaswamy also on the margins. He wasn't putting up much in New Hampshire. But if it's just two, three, four points, they go to Trump.

If Trump wins New Hampshire, sort of by any margin, it's going to be hard for Haley, who I know is heading into her home state. And yes, there's a few weeks between New Hampshire and South Carolina, but she's down 30, 40 points in her home state. And that would be a difficult act to pull off. But I think the biggest lesson here, the most honest moment from Ron DeSantis, perhaps in his entire campaign was a few days ago, where he acknowledged that the thing that changed the course of the race were the indictments. And Steve walked us through it on the board yesterday. And that's the that was the moment Republicans came home to Trump. And I think that the second guessing that DeSantis and I'm sure the Haley camp is having now as well as certainly those of the campaigns that belong to

Mike Pence or to Tim Scott is there was a moment to have gone on the attack and they didn't. Had they gone out after Trump right at the beginning of the campaign, instead of being so fearful of losing his support, maybe the trajectory of the race could instead of being so fearful of losing his support, maybe the trajectory of the race could have changed. But they held their fire. Trump only grew stronger. And then at this point, outside of Chris Christie, who, of course, you know, did attack him and then had to drop out, they all largely kept their mouth shut and they didn't go after Trump. And Trump was able to dominate the field. And we saw this resounding victory. And let's be clear, long way to go. But it's his nomination to lose clearly. And not only did they not go after him in many ways, they defended him.

They rallied around the Justice Department's being weaponized by the Biden administration against Donald Trump. They rallied around him at a time they could have criticized him. So, Joe and Mika, if you look ahead, as we just said, a week from today is New Hampshire. All eyes there. Then you go into Nevada, where Donald Trump is expected to roll. And then you've got that big gap, not until February the 24th, a lot of time before South Carolina, where that could be if Donald Trump runs the way he's polling right now and finishes that way, that could be decisive, could be ballgame. So interesting. And when you look at that exit polling and Steve Kornacki showed us in really stark terms, the strong MAGA presence for Donald Trump in line with his indictments. So the indictments actually help. And both Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley made the choice, made the conclusion that they should not insult Trump voters and the data backs up that it would be a mistake to do so. But my question is, at what point is that a failing act of complicity

instead of a sign of strength in leadership? Because they're asking themselves to twist themselves in a pretzel over issues pertaining to the truth and to the law. Well, listen, if you want to see what happens to a candidate that goes after Donald Trump and says the sort of things that we want to hear them say, ask Chris Christie how it works. You're running for the Republican nomination. Trump's party. And you have candidates that don't have the skill set, I guess. Maybe there is a candidate out there that could do that, that could sort of mock Donald Trump, talk about how he's a losing candidate. I mean, Chris Christie did that. But what we found is that that if you're a Republican and you attack Donald Trump, your numbers go down.

If you're a Republican and you're seen as not fully supporting Donald Trump, your numbers go down. If you're a Republican and you're seen as not fully supporting Donald Trump, your numbers go down. Mike Pence was the most loyal vice president in the world to Donald Trump. If Donald Trump took his bottle of water off the table, Mike Pence followed and took his bottle off the table. He followed him, you know, he followed him almost religiously. And then on January the 6th, when people were saying, hang Mike Pence, Donald Trump said, yeah, yeah, he deserves it. Maybe he deserves it. And Republicans just abandoned Mike Pence like that. So I think what we found here is, yeah, you know what? I think we've really always kind of known John Heilman. If Donald Trump is going to lose, then Donald Trump's going to have to beat himself.

It's just the way it is. These Republican candidates can go for Republican voters, but it can't be about Donald Trump. Just can't. They can't attack. Donald Trump was the last Republican president of the United States. And in this age of tribalism, I mean, there is, it is tribalism on steroids. In many cases, it really looks like a personality cult. Trump has got the majority of people following the big lie in the party. You name it. He he he brings up a conspiracy theory. They follow it. So you've got you've got that, John Heilman. And it puts it puts both of these people in a difficult position.

I want, though, I want, though, to look at this another way. Let me just ask you, if Barack Obama took four years off and then ran in a Democratic caucus in Iowa, would 50 percent of Democrats vote against Barack Obama? No, no, they wouldn't. Let me answer your question for you. No, they wouldn't. The fact that Donald Trump has, we have a delay, the fact that Donald Trump has 50% of Republicans not voting for him, and as Steve Kornacki said, one third hating him in the state of Iowa, in the state of Iowa. You know, we can all sit here and, you know, put on sackcloth and ashes and moan about Donald Trump getting 51 percent of the vote. Got to say, for people who actually

want to win general elections, that's not good news. Right, right. And there wasn't really a delay. I was going to make a calculation in my head. You know, in a way, Trump didn't really even take any time off. I mean, here's to make a calculation in my head. You know, in a way, Trump didn't really even take any time off. I mean, here's the analogy that's the right analogy. You know, Trump transformed. You know, Iowa was a state that, to bring up Barack Obama, Barack Obama wins this state in the general election in 2008. He wins the state in the general election in 2012.

Trump comes in here, wins the, comes in third in the Iowa caucus in 2016, but wins the state, turns it red in 2016, turns it wins. It comes in third in the Iowa caucus in 2016, but wins the state, turns it red in 2016, turns it red easily in 2020. So he's actually run here as a presidential candidate in the last two presidential cycles. He hasn't taken any time off, right? He's effectively the incumbent running in the Republican Party. So if you thought about that, imagine Barack Obama has won, wins Iowa in 2008 and wins it in 2012, and now Barack Obama's running the Iowa caucuses in 2016. What would Barack Obama's margin have been in Iowa in the 2016 Democratic caucuses? Would have been, I would reckon, 90, 95 percent. I mean, 85 percent. I

mean, he would be one of the most popular Democratic presidents in history. Trump getting over 50 was an achievement for him in terms of proving that he has the majority of the most popular Democratic presidents in history. Trump getting over 50 was an achievement for him in terms of proving that he has the majority of the Republican Party, at least here in Iowa. But it is a sign of something that there is this, there continues to be this large, people know Donald Trump really well. He has transformed the party. The Republicans know him really well. And there is still, there may not be enough of a hunger to depose Donald Trump as a Republican nominee. But there is a large hunger in the party for people who wanted to oppose Donald Trump.

And those people who voted last night for Nikki Haley, some of them who voted for Ron DeSantis, those people were not the normally you would say they'll fall in line behind their Republican nominee in the general election. A fair number of those people are Democrats and independents who are out there for Nikki Haley last night. They're likely to be voting for Joe Biden when it comes to 2024. Enough to make Iowa blue? Probably not. But as a national indicator, it's an important thing that points to Trump's weakness as a general election candidate. Yeah. And I understand what people are saying. Oh, they say, well, look at the polls right now.

Yeah. OK, look at the polls right now. I'll look at the polls and, you know, next year around the around election time. And again, this doesn't 50 50 percent of people voting in the Iowa caucuses against a former president is bad news for that party's prospects in the general election, not good news. And again, just again, let's ask what Barack Obama would have gotten if he'd done the same thing. It would have been in the high 90s. Finally, before I let you go, we have to talk about the most important thing that happened last night, and that's the bear winning big in the Emmys. You brought this series to the morning, Joe, and we appreciate it. But, man, what a big night for the Bear. I know Succession did well also. But, man, huge night for the Bear. They both won six, and they swept their categories, Joe. A huge night for the little engine that could. Because of the delay in the Emmys, because of the strike last year,

these Emmys were still based on season one of the Bear. And I'll tell you, as great as season one of the Bear is, season two of the Bear is transcendent. So when we get to the next Emmy Awards, as a leading indicator, there's Evan Kiss and Maddie Madison on stage. Doug, a great moment in the show last night. Evan Moss-Bachrog, who won last night for supporting actor in the comedy category. Again, a great performance in season one, but a transcendent performance in season two. That guy's going to be back up there again in the next Emmys. Huge, huge.

They're the bigger winners of the last night than Donald Trump. I'll tell you that. I would say the bear for president. That's my view. Well, they're going to be around longer as well. They're going to have more staying power. But you are so right. When people tell me they've seen season one of the bear, I'm like, oh, yeah, you've got to just chill out. Please, you've got to see season two. It's extraordinary. Willie, I know that you usually watch Masterpiece Theater. Oh, with a pipe. You might have missed the bear. With a pipe.

Well, with Mozart quietly playing in the background. Just the crown. So I don't know if you've seen The Bear or Succession or anything like that. Oh, you have? So good. Oh, my gosh. Please. The bear. To your point and John's point, we're not even talking

about season two. The Christmas episode? Episode six? Fishes season two? If you haven't seen it, I'm not going to say anything else. It's one of the greatest episodes of anything I've ever seen. If I can just say Jamie Lee Curtis has my heart. Jamie Lee Curtis. But I will say, you know, we talk,

I'm so glad you talked about seven fishes that episode. I will say the, there are three episodes there, uh, one with a replacement song and I will at the end and one with, I will not, I will not blow the surprise for the next song where Cousin takes it. But I will say those three episodes that make up the heart of season two, I think, are probably the three best back-to-back-to-back episodes I've ever seen. It's Michael Jordan with the Bulls winning three championships in a row. No argument here. No argument here. I think I don't want to go too far, but I think for me, it's maybe the best acted show I've ever seen. And that's why I was so happy to see the cast

really honored last night and also at the Golden Globes a few nights ago. Jeremy Allen White, the star of the show, is incredible. But to see Ayo, the young actress who is now going to be a superstar who plays the sous chef at the restaurant, she is unbelievable. Great cast, great show. I can't wait to see what's to come. But yeah, so next year, I guess, we get to honor them for season two. So if they got six this year, does that mean 10 next year, including one for Jamie Lee Curtis? We'll see. I can only hope. John Heilman, thank you very much. We'll see you again very soon. John, stay warm out there. John has to have a final word on the bear. Go ahead. I got just one quick thing. Agree with Willie. Great acting, but also a beautifully written show.

And a real shout out tonight, last night the guy the mind behind the bear chris store won last night twice best director best written episode on the comedy side uh chris wasn't there last night but man this work of genius uh owes uh it's it's chris's show really and um and a good friend yeah great guy all right this is amazing john thank you by the way by the way do you know do you know who sort of helped with music, you know, just sort of talking through it and everything? And who was kind of on the ground from the beginning for the bear? John Heilman. Stop. No. Are you serious? Yes. OK. Coming up, Reverend Al Sharpton joins the panel on the heels of his new interview with President Joe Biden.

We'll discuss some of the major campaign issues they talked about. Are we going to also, I cannot wait to hear Reverend Al talk about that. Also, really, as we look at the White House, are we going to talk about maybe, I'm sorry, I had to let the replacements come in there. Are we going to talk about one of the greatest collapses in NFL history with the Philadelphia Eagles? one of the greatest collapses in NFL history with the Philadelphia Eagles. One of the great collapses

in NFL history. I guess we are. We'll be right back, my friends. We'll be right back. I can't wait. Third down and seven. Mayfield wide open.

There's Moore again again his second catch still working through this secondary and a touchdown tampa bay where is the d that's david moore the tampa bay buccaneers scoring on a 44 yard reception just waltzing into the end zone the first quarter against the eagles First of three touchdown passes from Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield through for.337 in his first playoff appearance since 2020. Meanwhile, Tampa's defense stymied Philly, stuffing the infamous tush push right before halftime, sacking Jalen Hurts in the end zone for his safety late in the third. He was out of it last night, too.

The Bucs are hot. They win for the sixth time in seven games, dominating the Eagles 32-9 last night to advance to the NFC Divisional round. They go to Detroit to play the Lions who get another home playoff game. Joe, I don't know what to say about the Philadelphia Eagles. They started the season 10-1.

They lose six of their last seven and look dreadful last night a team that was i don't know a quarter away from maybe winning the super bowl last year you figure okay they're in the playoffs now it's been a rough stretch they flip the switch they turn it on they played totally uninspired if you and i tackled in high school the way they tackled last night our coach would have us running sprints all day in the heat. It was kind of staggering to watch how bad they were. Credit to the Bucs.

They played really well, and they're hot. But, man, the Eagles are bad right now. Man, I wish we had Pablo here today because we would talk about all the bad tackling in the playoffs. The Miami Dolphins literally turning sideways like this and hoping to, like, hit. I swear. It's like nothing I've ever seen. And you see it time and time again. Last night, I mean, you saw it with the Cowboys against the Packers.

You saw it last night, too. I just really, the thing is, again, I've never seen a collapse like this in football. The Philadelphia Eagles, 11 weeks into the season, they were the surefire bet to go back to the Super Bowl, probably win it. It has been just a collapse. You look at last night, horrific. You look at the week before, the Giants, they made the Giants look great. The week before that, they lost to the lowly Arizona Cardinals.

This is a team. The coach obviously has to go. But, you know, Willieie you can look at this game and people can say what happened to jay there we go what happened to jaylen hurts what happened to the offense you can say the same thing in dallas with back right you can even say the same thing uh with alabama when they lost to michigan But what's the common denominator in all three cases? The much bigger problem. And Alabama, how did you give up a fourth quarter?

How did the defense give up a fourth quarter lead and collapse in overtime? With the Cowboys, they got run over by the Bills a couple of weeks back. And Jordan Love looked like Joe Namath in 1969 for the Jets. The Cowboys' defense was horrid. And last night, my God, the Eagles' defense horrid. This is a much bigger problem for the Eagles.

Don't look at Jalen. Don't look at the offense. Start with the defense. That was just, along with the Cowboys, just two great teams that turned into horrible defensive displays. Yeah, it was really bad. And to watch, there's something called a shell drill in practice where the quarterback just kind of throws to his receivers wherever he wants to. That's what it looked like.

It looked like a practice drill. Everyone was so open. And once they got the ball, they were running free. And if they were tackled, it was like you said, just shoulder blocks instead of grabbing the, John, the New York tabloids, of course, a little gleeful about this. Giants fans cry, Eagles cry, instead of fly, Eagles fly. But Joe mentioned firing the coach, which seems preposterous because they were in the Super Bowl last year, but they're talking about that this morning in Philly. Yeah, that's going to at least be a conversation, and certainly there'll be wholesale changes. I i mean warning sign which they brought in matt patricia to help out the defense as this patriots fan will attest he's

had a tough couple of years uh but this eagles team just they collect they broke it felt like they broke in recent weeks it was it was yeah look jaylen hurts was hurt was banged up yesterday a.j brown their best receiver didn't play he was out but the bigger point is that they they just fell apart down the stretch you'd be missing There's something missing with this team, a lack of heart and certainly a lack of defense, and it was the non-effort on those two long touchdowns where guys didn't even try to wrap him up. They weren't competing. And certainly the NFC East, all year long, Cowboys and Eagles thought to be among the two top teams in the league. They both go out in embarrassing fashion yesterday. And the other winner last night, though, the Detroit Lions,

who now get another home playoff game after that wonderful scene. Unbelievable. Men crying in the stands. They win their first playoff game in decades. And now they get another home game against a Tampa Bay team they should beat. And they could be the NFC title game. They're a favorite to go to the NFC title game. It's a great story coming out of Detroit.

So the earlier game yesterday, Orchard Park, New York, the Buffalo Bills, Cruz passed the Steelers. Josh Allen throwing three touchdown passes and scoring on a franchise postseason record, 52-yard touchdown run. He is a beast. Look at this run. This is amazing. What is he, 6'5", 240, running like this?

Kind of fakes a slide and then goes. Carrying a five-game regular season winning streak into the first round of the playoffs with a 31-17 win over Pittsburgh. Steelers now have lost five consecutive playoff games. Great scene, Joe, last night in Buffalo. Snowballs all over the place. And now the Kansas City Chiefs next weekend come to Buffalo for a night game. It should be a crazy atmosphere and a crazy stat, by the way,

that Patrick Mahomes, through this incredible run, has never played a road playoff game. They've been so good, they've always been the higher seed or it's been the Super Bowl at a neutral site. So you get the Chiefs, Mahomes, and Kelsey on the road in Buffalo on a Sunday night. It should be amazing. I mean, you look at that.

By the way, there are three great teams there, three great hot teams. The Kansas City Chiefs aren't one of them. What's so fascinating about this game, again, people thought the Eagles were going to turn on the switch and go. The Kansas City Chiefs have just – they have stumbled and bumbled their way through the season. Just like – I mean, let's face it. Josh Allen and the Bills started this season horribly,

the first half of the season. Jack and I kept watching on Sundays, of course, after seeing Willie's show Sunday morning. And then we would go to the red zone, and in the afternoons, we would be going, what's wrong with Josh Allen? What's wrong? He was horrible the first half of this season. And then they played Dallas.

Boom. That is a hot team. Somebody said two weeks going into the playoffs, you don't want to play the Bills. Josh Allen and the Bills are hot. And man, they're thinking about what, no hyperbole here, what may have been the greatest playoff game ever when they played Kansas City three years ago in Kansas City. Now it's in Buffalo. That scene is going to be wild.

And we'll see if Josh Allen can get his revenge. For sure. You had me at pa-pa-pa-pa. Pa-pa-pa-pa. I was waiting for Willie's response. Like, yeah, I agree. no i i i'm with you i think i'll the the bills the way they're playing right now at home against the chiefs they look really good don't sleep on the ravens though they've sort of everyone talks about the chiefs and the bills but man they are a really good team they've been

sitting getting healthy for the last week and a half. Watch out for them, too. Yeah, Jonathan Lemire, I'll tell you right now what I'm hoping for. There are a lot of teams I love that are still playing right now. But come on, give us that Lake Erie Super Bowl. Give us Buffalo against Detroit. I mean, could it get any better than that? That is just, I mean, that's just this side of the old black and blue division. That would be amazing. And more than that, those would be the two passionate fan bases,

neither of which have ever won a Super Bowl. So that would be perhaps a sign of the apocalypse, frankly, if we got Lions, Bills, and the Super Bowl. But that would be so fun for all of us to watch. Those are fan bases that would really, really deserve it. One note of caution on the Bills, who I'll be rooting for this weekend. They suffered a bunch of injuries yesterday. And the Chiefs will have had two extra days of rest.

They played Saturday. Bills had to play on a Monday because of that storm. So that's going to be a tough, tough game. And it's hard to bet against Patrick Mahomes ever, even with a flawed Chiefs team. Yeah. All right. Let's bring in the president of the National Action Network and host of MSNBC's Politics Nation, Reverend Al Sharpton, also with us, the former chief of staff to the

DCCC and senior aide to the Hillary Clinton and Biden presidential campaigns, Adrian Elrod, back with us. Reverend Al, you talked to the president yesterday. Let's take a listen. The way the things that Trump is saying, Trump is saying things that are just off the wall. He is most anti-democratic with his capital, small d, president in American history. The things he's saying, and he means them. He's talking about he's running to get revenge on people. He's running because he wants to see to it. I mean, it's just outrageous things. For example, he said the other day that because our economy is doing so well and getting better and better,

he said he's looking forward to a recession, so a depression, because he does not want to. He wants it to happen on quote my watch he he wouldn't be talking about this he didn't acknowledge that the economy is doing pretty damn well and particularly for people who in fact need the most help hey rev tell us more about that interview well uh the context is that for the last several years, President Biden has come to our National Action Network D.C. breakfast. So he decided to go in Pennsylvania and do service this Martin Luther King holiday. But he said he would do a few minutes on my radio show. The White House said you have five or six minutes. He ended up going almost triple that.

And the context of the question is that I asked him, I said, you know, in 2020 at our National Action Network breakfast, Martin Luther King III, you and I were talking in the back room and you said, you know, I'm really thinking about running for president this year. He had, you know, of course, I'd worked with him when he was vice president. He said, because when I saw what happened in Charlottesville and how this guy, Trump, is acting, I really want to get in there and help turn this country around. So it was in that context that I asked him, I said, well, you told us that and you ended up running that year and you won. What motivated you to seek reelection? And he said, well, you know, Al, it's because this

guy's off the wall. And you heard the rest of his comment. In many ways, he was saying that Donald Trump is what motivated him to run in 2020. And Donald Trump was part of the impetus of why he's running now, because he feels what he's saying is so anti-democratic that it's more than just Donald Trump. In many ways, I don't know that he, Joe Biden, would have been as motivated as he seems to be because he was full of vigor yesterday in the phone interview. If Donald Trump was not running, I think he really sees Trump as something that would be irreparable to the American democratic process. And I think that is what gets him a lot of energy and gets him going. So, Rev, the result last night in Iowa, huge win for Donald Trump, confirms what the Biden campaign and the president himself have assumed,

that he's running against Donald Trump. And that's why he focused in your interview on Donald Trump. What is your sense of how he's feeling about the race? I talk to people around the president, the White House and the campaign, and they say, yes, there are these polls out there that show a close or even Biden losing in some swing states. There's another one out of Georgia that shows Trump with a lead this morning, Atlanta Journal Constitution. But they say, let's wait till it's one on one. Let's get in deep into this year, into the summer. Let's talk about the economy. Let's do some work on immigration. And they believe when it's a binary choice and the other choice is the guy who led an attempted coup against the government,

a guy who's on trial may have been convicted by the time voters go to the polls, that they'll maybe not in a sweeping win, but that just enough of them will go for Joe Biden. In my conversations over the last several months with the president, in the context of being president of National Action Network, so we'll be on civil rights issues, I think the president is different than those that are running his campaign. In this sense, the ones that are running his campaign are exactly as you said. They're relaxed. Wait a minute. He's like, we've got to fight. And I think it's good for him that he fights like the underdog, that he's not taking anything for granted.

The reason I think he went overtime yesterday is he knows there are polls out there saying that he's going down with black voters. He started running down. Al, black voters need to understand that I've brought black unemployment from nine point five percent down to five percent. Historic. I've helped to close the gap between black and white families. He started running tangible things he did in the black community that he wants voters to know. That's not a guy that's waiting to relax and they'll come in later. So I think that the thing that will motivate Joe Biden and people will forget he's 81 years old is Donald Trump. You know, when I was a kid, I was I was blessed enough to have a relationship with Muhammad Ali. There were

certain opponents that made Ali really trained because they were challenges. I think Donald Trump brings the youth out of Joe Biden. Yeah. Adrian, you you talk and I know you do all the time. You talk to the Biden White House. You talk to people running the Biden White House. And there is there is this confidence. There's just a yeah, things aren't perfect. There are things we have to do. But I've been around a lot of a lot of. But I've been around a lot of politicians. I've been around a lot of campaigns. It's like these people, and I know it's making Democrats crazy, but you talk about the Georgia poll.

Looks like he's down by about eight points. You can bring up polls like that. And they're like, in time, just relax. We've been underestimated. You know, Biden's been underestimated since 1972. He just has. He always has been. Talk about that. That confidence that drives a Biden White House, but also drives a lot of Democrats who weren't on the inside crazy. Well, you know, there's a couple of things, Joe. I mean, number one, I think we've talked about this quite a few times.

It's really hard to get a poll that's accurate right now that really reflects how abortion is going to play in the general election, you know, how a number of other factors are going to play in. So I think that's part of the confidence. But also at the same time, it is the fact that, as you just said, Joe Biden has always been underestimated. That is an absolute fact. I mean, we saw the midterms, 2022, when obviously he wasn't on the ballot, but effectively he was. And effectively, Trump was on the ballot with a potential run for president. And, you know, Democrats did exceptionally well in the midterms, far better than what the polls were showing. So I think

that's part of it, too. But also this administration in this campaign knows that the general election has not quite started yet. A lot of Americans are not tuned in. You know, I just heard you and Heilman talk about the fact that, you know, Trump, we've got to keep in mind that Trump received slightly more than 50 percent in Iowa, which, yes, is a domination in a primary in terms of winning the caucus. But you're still looking at the fact that nearly half of Iowa Republicans did not support, do not support Donald Trump. So that doesn't always play well for the general election. So I think you're looking at some factors here and there that sort of all play into this.

And look, also, this White House and this campaign knows this is going to be a very, very close election elections. Then the last few cycles, presidentials have not been won by giant margins. Sure, Democrats, including Hillary Clinton, President Biden, have won by a huge amount of the popular vote by a significant margin. But when it comes to those key electoral votes in states that really decide the election, they've been very, very close. So, you know, you combine all of those factors. We know that a lot of Americans are not tuning into the election. And this administration, Joe Biden, is running on a long set of accomplishments.

That is the Rev just said. He's going out there. He's talking to voters. He's talking to black voters who he knows he needs to get his numbers up there. And he's talking about what he's done. And he's making a contrast with Donald Trump. I think you're going to see more of that. I think that's one of the many reasons

why the Biden administration and campaign feels pretty good about where they are right now. So Reverend Sharpton, very few people in the Biden camp think any longer that some of Trump's criminal trials will be the difference in the election. It's not going to be this huge swing. They now think that his support is largely baked in. We've seen at least among Republicans, the indictments have only

helped him now. But there is a sense that it could help around the margins in a race that's really close. I think today is illustrative. Trump, though it's voluntary, he's after a big election win, he's choosing to appear in court today. He's going to be in court with E.G. and Carol, and then he heads on to New Hampshire. We're going to see a lot of that most likely in the year ahead, whether it's a trial or at least various hearings and legal proceedings. Do you think that that still will carry some sort of impact with those undecideds, with those independent voters, where even along the margins, that might be enough to tilt things Biden's way? I think the fact that Donald Trump is so far only playing to his base will end up helping the Democrats and Joe Biden with the undecided and those that are not in part of the Trump cult.

Because as as Adrian just said, as I said, that when he knows that he being Joe Biden, that he has to do more in terms of the black vote. He has to do more in terms of youth vote. And he's going out there after that. You don't see Donald Trump going outside of his comfort zone. He's playing to his base, going to these trials of playing his base and all of that open area that he may try to go after. Donald Trump's not going after Joe Biden is. The reason Trump is not doing that is he knows to reach out to younger voters or the black voters. He risked the base, the cult following that he's built by being against blacks and against youth and other things. So he's kind of put himself into a corner, Donald Trump. So he's got to play it out and hope it's enough. And I just don't think there's going

to be enough there. So, Rev, let's talk about, though, Donald Trump. And you know this. I mean, you know, Donald Trump, you've known him longer than I've known him. He loves the grand spectacle. You've gone to fights with him before the heavyweight championship fight streak. He loves the grand spectacle. And so while we in polite society and well, actually insane rational society, see a man going into court to to stare down a woman that a judge after he's been found guilty of committing fraud in his business and will likely be convicted of stealing nuclear secrets to rational human beings, to sane human beings, to people who actually respect the rule of law and actually don't think it's a cool thing to have a president who judges said raped a woman. And that woman, he's going back today.

All he had to do was simply not talk about her. But he chose to defame her again after he was found liable of defamation. He's in court today because of his mouth. Right. But for Donald Trump, and if you look at the entrance polls yesterday, these Republicans say they don't care that he's in court. In fact, the fact he's in court today facing a woman that a judge says he raped. Donald Trump is there because that's the best political fuel he can get. That's how twisted things are in the personality cult.

And he's going into these courtrooms because of the grand spectacle, because it helps him, because 65 percent of Republicans in Iowa say if he's convicted, they still want him to be his president. And there's 20 percent in another poll in the Des Moines Register NBC poll. The 20 percent said the fact that he's indicted or that he's found guilty of a judge says that he raped a woman. That makes them more likely to vote for him. The spectacle is what he has been giving them. And the spectacle is what he's become a prisoner of it by his own doing, because he's playing the people that want the spectacle. Many of them feel that they've been the victim of the same kinds of stuff in life. For whatever reason, they've joined this cult. And Donald Trump knows I've got to play the PT bottom of politics and keep giving them spectacles or I could lose my audience because he has no firm political beliefs.

He has no real social beliefs that he wants to try to change society. It's all about the spectacle. It's all about being P.T. Bonham. And he's got to keep trying to have the tiger jumps through, jump through the fire hoops in order to continue to get his crowd. He's about filling the arenas. He's not about changing the country. Adrian, just final thoughts. Do you think the Biden campaign is prepared to push back against all the disinformation that's filtering through different sectors of society, even in like the sports community and the football conversations you see on cable? You see a lot of sort of Trumpism seeping through in different ways. Yeah, I mean, I think, again, President Biden going on the rev show is a prime example of how they're trying to break through because you can't always break through on national news.

You've got to meet the voters where they are. You've got to be a part of those conversations. So, you know, you saw President Biden doing an interview with Conan O'Brien. I think you're going to see more sort of creative ways that they're going to use his voice and also the voices of surrogates to get out there and really break through into the living rooms of key voters that he will need in this general election. So I think they've got a really smart strategy. They're getting creative. And you're just going to see more of that. OK, Reverend Al Sharpton, Adrian Elrod, thank you both very much for coming in this morning.