Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/7/23

Episode Date: November 7, 2023

What to watch for in the 2023 elections

Well, I don't know if you saw this poll in The New York Times that scared the hell out of everybody, but Trump is ahead of Biden in five of the six battleground states, which is something I can barely wrap my head around. It's like it's after it's like after the return of the Jedi, the people in the galaxy were like, you know, this Princess Leia is kind of a dud. Why don't we give the emperor another shot? All right. Welcome to Morning Joe. It's Tuesday. You don't understand any of that, do you? Nope. Yeah, okay.

November 7th. We'll have a lot to get to this morning. Something with Star Wars, right? Thank you for saying, Willie, I was worried she was going to say Star Trek. I was guessing. Thank goodness she said Star Wars.

Her ongoing confusion of those two franchises, frankly, is unforgivable. Star Wars, Star Trek. Oh, really? Nika, we can't have that. Oh, really? I think it may be deliberate also before we get to the start of this.

I'm going to get Willie a lightsaber for Christmas. Yeah, do that. That would be great. A little lightsaber light for the corner of his room. Also unforgivable for a lot of Jets fans, Willie, the situation at quarterback. It gets no better. In fact, much, much worse. Yeah, they lost last night.

I guess it was too late for the tabloids. But yeah, they lost 27-6. Just no offense to speak of. It is a shame. You watch the game. They have a great defense. But they're on the field the entire game. You can't ask much more from those guys.

And it's bad in New York right now between the Jets, the Giants losing their quarterback, Zach Wilson. They're trying to prop them up, trying to give them ways to succeed. It's just not happening. So they cannot get Aaron Rodgers back fast enough in New York. It's starting to look like a lost season on both fronts out at MetLife Stadium in the Meadowlands. Well, you know, I'm really surprised the Jets didn't move for somebody at the trade deadline, a quarterback that could actually keep them in contention because there were several out there. I mean, you look incredible what happened this weekend where you had a quarterback who played for the, was it Dobbs who played for the Cardinals?

Yeah. Who got traded and turned the game around and won. But I mean, the Jets had a chance, didn't do it, and so it just keeps getting uglier. Well, that's the thing. As bad as things have been, they were 4-3 going into that game last night. They're only a game out of first

place in their division, which is staggering when you think about what they've been through this season. But unfortunately, if he's under center, they just don't have a chance to win, as we saw again last night. That's what Mika was saying last night. We stayed up, watched the whole thing because, you know, that's what we do. After the Star Trek marathon. And then a Star Trek marathon until about 2 in the morning.

Okay. We have a lot to get to this morning. We end up with a wrath of Khan. And then I'm like, we got two hours to sleep, you know? Okay. We're going to have expert legal analysis on another contentious day in court for Donald Trump with the former president testifying in the civil fraud trial for his business organization. It was a lot, let me tell you.

Yikes. That's a... He can't hold back, can he? Anywho, also ahead. Yeah. No, he was not happy, and the judge asked his lawyers to control their client. I wouldn't be happy if sketch artists made me look like that. Well, they were trying to make a point.

Whoa! What's that? He looks like a character out of Star Wars there. Anyhow, I can't wait to ask our experts ahead exactly how any other defendant would be treated if they act this way. Also, Ed, we have the latest on the ground offensive in Gaza as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu continues to reject calls for a ceasefire, but appears to be open to strategic pauses. President Biden continues to talk about the need to have humanitarian breaks in this to allow civilians to continue to move out, to protect civilians on the ground.

Netanyahu pushing back on it. But they're right now talking about, quote, strategic pauses, whatever that means for the hostages and also for the Gaza civilians. Plus, it is Election Day in America. A big one. We'll break down some of the key races across the country and why they matter. You know, Willie, it's everybody's been talking about these polls and really they they they don't matter other than a snapshot in time. Right. And so we can see the trend lines are breaking against the Biden White House. They should be scared as hell. Voters shouldn't be. If they support Joe Biden, they should just register, vote, get their friends to vote. But but these elections tonight, they do matter. I mean, they have shown over the during the Trump era, they have shown Republican failures in 17 led

to Republican failures and 18 Republican failures in the off off years and 19 led to Republican failures in 20. Same with 21. So Republicans are on a seven year losing streak. It's going to be interesting whether they can snap that tonight. Yeah. And one of the big snapshot is in the state of Kentucky, where the incumbent Democratic Governor Andy Beshear is running against the state's attorney general, Daniel Cameron. Polling very close there. Beshear won by less than a point in his last election. He's a Democrat in a state that Donald Trump won by 25 or 26 points. Donald Trump has endorsed Daniel Cameron. Both of these guys viewed as stars in the party with big futures ahead of them.

So that will be really fascinating to see which way that breaks with Donald Trump coming into that race in support of the Republican. The Virginia race also going to be really telling to see what happens in a lot of those legislative races. Katty K, especially the legislative races in northern Virginia. There's a Senate seat, especially that matters. But also, I know you, Mika, and I are looking at the Ohio abortion referendum. That's going to be a fascinating insight to see where voters are in a red, red state. Yeah, both Virginia and Ohio are going to be a reflection of how much momentum there is on the abortion side. Democrats, of course, still hoping that abortion is the issue that can mitigate some of that bad polling over the last couple of days for Joe Biden on the age front,

on the economy front. They're still hoping that abortion is going to get people to the polls. I've spent a lot of time in northern Virginia. I am out there two or three days a week in one of the key districts, District 31, where you've got a race for the state Senate. There have been yard signs up for months, which suggests there's certainly a lot of enthusiasm. Yard signs on both sides. I'm seeing a lot for the Democrat, Russet Perry, a lot for the Republican candidate, Segura. Hard to say that one candidate has more up than the other. The only thing I do notice is that for an off-year election,

I have not seen this much enthusiasm in the state for a long time. So let's see who gets to the polls. Well, and Jonathan O'Meara, we have seen, especially since Dobbs, just a political earthquake. We've seen it in Kansas. We've seen it in Kentucky. We've seen it in Wisconsin. We've seen it in one red state after another, one state that Trump won in 16 after another. It's going to be fascinating to see what happens tonight again in Ohio and in Virginia, especially in northern Virginia, in those suburbs. Of course, if Beshear can defy political gravity and win in a state that Donald Trump won by 25 points, Democrats will see that as a massive victory, of course. But I've got to believe the

White House. I mean, they're knocking on wood, crossing themselves, throwing salt over their left shoulder. They're doing everything because a Democratic win denied in a lot of these races, a lot of these states will completely wipe away any talk of one of one New York Times, Siena College spate of polls. But I will say if Republicans and I'll be saying this tomorrow morning, if Republicans win for the first time since 2016, then it really will be time for the Biden White House to batten down the hatches and get ready for a storm ahead. A number of Democrats said versions of the same thing to me yesterday, that no matter how bad the polls look, what we have seen in the post in the post 2016 era, what happens? Democrats actually win elections. We saw that with the midterms. We've in 2022, we have seen that a number of the special elections since then, and certainly abortion rights, a big part of that. So, yes, there's a lot of concern among Democrats right now, a lot of second guessing about the Biden campaign strategy to this point, how there was they have not gone after Donald Trump as hard, perhaps, as they could have.

They sort of outsource that to other Republicans, primary Trump's primary contenders think that they would take down Donald Trump. They chose not to. They have not attacked him. And we've seen Trump maintain a massive lead. But things could change today. The narrative heading in one year out from 2024 could change today on a number of levels. If Governor Beshear were to win, first of all, that also cements him as a rising national star. But certainly Virginia, Virginia expected to be close to abortion rights, a big part of that. And then Ohio and people that I've talked to think that abortion rights will be a victory in Ohio,

which would continue that streak and give Democrats momentum and underscore yet again, Joe and Mika, that even as we look at these battleground state polls, abortion choice is going to be such a major issue next year, too, as much as the names Biden and Trump. Yeah. You know, these elections can either underscore what these New York Times, the anti-college polls were saying or completely blow them out of the water. And I just wonder, there were some experts, political experts in the past couple of days who have said, oh, Joe Biden maybe shouldn't. I just wonder why don't they wait for real evidence? Which wouldn't isn't this election day the outcome of it? Sort of a great sign of where things are going as opposed to a poll. Yeah, no, it certainly is. There's some people have been David Axelrod has been critical of Joe Biden for a year, two years, for years. And

certainly David is very respect friend of ours. Truth is, though, he's always been critical of Joe Biden, always second guessing. So there are people that are second guessing him. But but I will say what what David Axelrod is saying out loud, a lot of Democrats are saying quietly, there's no doubt about it. But we've talked about this time and again. Joe Biden was doubted when he first announced in 2019. He was doubted throughout 2019. He was mocked and doubted after Iowa. He was mocked and doubted after New Hampshire. He was mocked and doubted after Nevada. Everybody said he needed to drop out of the race. And then South Carolina came and then he swept through and he won.

Then he was too old. He was running from the basement. There was no way he was going to beat Donald Trump. He beat Donald Trump. Then he was too old. Blah, blah, blah. 2022, we were supposed to have a red wave. Instead, it was really an extraordinary night, a historic night for Democrats, a historic night for Joe Biden. I think he's the first president since since FDR, a first first term president whose midterm election went the way it did as far as no governors of his party losing. You can keep going on and on about, you know, then after that, it's like, OK, well, maybe he's good. Then it's like now he's too old. Then he delivers a State of the Union address. So let's again, Joe Biden's been underestimated his entire life. He's being underestimated now.

This is not a smart, not not smart bet to bet against him. But if people want to, they can. Certainly that's that's their right. I will say just following up, though, Willie, on what John just said, like the Biden White House is actually debating whether Joe Biden should attack Donald Trump or not. This reminds me of 1988 and Michael Dukakis saying, I'm not going to answer those Bush attacks, saying I'm unpatriotic while he's going to flag factories all over the country. And de Kock is just he kept mowing his lawn with his push mower. I'm not going to. I'm not going to answer those those attacks. You got to answer those attacks. And like whoever inside the White House is telling Joe Biden not to attack Donald Trump. Stop it. Seriously, stop it.

All right. And maybe start a lawn service with push lawnmowers because you don't know what you're doing. You don't know what you're talking about. And you're costing the president. You really are. You're costing them points. This is a political battle to the end. Donald Trump is trying to destroy Joe Biden. I'm not exactly sure, Willie, who inside the White House is saying, hey, when you go up against the champ, Mike Tyson in 91, Muhammad Ali in like 73, you should fight by Marcus of Queensberry rules. No, you got to go after him. No holds barred. And yet, Willie, they're still trying to debate. Do we play nice in this campaign or do we actually take it to a guy that stole nuclear

secrets, has been accused of being a rapist by a New York judge, and has 91 felony counts against him charged. It's not hard. I don't think this is hard. And I'm not sure who inside the White House is making this hard. Well, it goes without saying that Donald Trump's not going to fight fair. He's going to go nuclear whenever he has the chance. And he's doing that every day. Did it yesterday outside the courtroom. The case from the White House, as Jonathan knows, is we're going to we're going to run on our record. But you can do both. You can say, hey, the economy is pretty good. Here's why. And you can also say the guy I'm running against might tear down the democracy. And here's why what he's saying about me is false. Two things at once,

as we like to say on the show. Speaking of the former president yesterday, he defended his actions as head of the Trump organization yesterday at the civil fraud trial in New York. NBC News senior legal correspondent Laura Jarrett has more on Trump's testimony. A combative Donald Trump testifying for hours in a Manhattan courtroom with his real estate empire on the line. This trial is ridiculous. Mr. Trump showing flashes of anger as he sparred with the judge and the New York Attorney General's office, brushing off accusations that he doctored financial statements to inflate the value of some of his most well-known properties, like Mar-a-Lago, Trump Tower, and 40 Wall Street,

all to defraud banks and lenders. But at the end of the day, the only thing that matters are the facts and the numbers. And numbers, my friends, don't lie. ALI ROGIN, Already found liable for fraud, the former president now trying to fend off a $250 million penalty, growing heated when pressed about whether he overvalued assets found in the Trump Organization's annual financial statements. penalty, growing heated when pressed about whether he overvalued assets found in the Trump Organization's annual financial statements. His face turning red, raising his voice, pointing directly at the judge seated inches away, yelling he called me a fraud and he didn't know anything about me. A reference to the

judge's pretrial decision that ruled in the state's favor. Also going after the Attorney General herself, watching on in the state's favor, also going after the attorney general herself, watching on in the courtroom, Mr. Trump calling her a political hack. I will not be bullied. I will not be harassed. This case will go on. And Mr. Trump did make some concessions, admitting he probably saw some of the disputed financial statements that went to banks and lenders, while repeatedly dismissing them as not important because they included certain disclaimers saying that his net worth is actually far greater than what's reflected in his financial statements touting the value of the trump brand the numbers

are much greater than on the financial statement and we've already proven that they said mar-a-lago is worth 18 million dollars probably 50 to 100 times more than that. The judge's patience tested at times by that same rhetoric on the witness stand, calling parts of Mr. Trump's

testimony irrelevant and rambling, warning the Republican frontrunner this is not a political rally. NBC's Laura Jarrett reporting there. Let's bring in NBC News legal analyst Catherine Christian.

She's a former assistant district attorney in the Manhattan DA's office and former U.S. attorney and senior FBI official Chuck Rosenberg. Good morning to you both. Catherine, I'll start with you. So as defenses go, my accountants did it. Is that convincing? Is that compelling?

It's not a good defense because accountants rely on information from their clients to prepare tax returns, to prepare financial statements. So if the information is false, the financial statements, the tax returns are going to be false because the client gave false information. And his testimony, Trump's testimony yesterday, did nothing to help his case. He was speaking to his base, to appease his base, but it was not nothing he said helped his case. And so what about the histrionics, the theatrics that we saw in the courtroom back and forth with the judge turning to Mr. Trump's attorneys and saying, get control of this guy or I will. Those

attorneys obviously have no control over Donald Trump. So how does that play into the outcome of what we're seeing here? Well, first, it was not a jury trial. If the jury had been in that courtroom, the judge would have shut him down because you can't have a jury here irrelevant, inadmissible and prejudicial evidence. The judge was wise to stop engaging with him. At the beginning, the judge was sort of engaging with him and getting upset. And then at one point just decided, you know what? Let him roll. There is no jury here. Just let him go. He's the he's the judge and he's the trier of the fact. So if Donald Trump just wants to annoy the judge, let him do it.

And Mika, here are here what it looks like in the front page of The Wall Street Journal. Trump and fraud trial spars with judge and defends business. And then you actually have a view inside the courtroom and the New York Times takes us through who all the key players are there. But you turn it over and the story talks about how Donald Trump admitted that he actually was involved in some of the conduct that is at the heart of the case. So that's my question for Chuck Rosenberg. Chuck, Donald Trump walked out and did, you know, got lots of cameras clicking and rolling as he was saying things went very well in court today. So did they go well? Did he have a good day in court yesterday?

Mika, they did not go well in court, not for Mr. Trump. But look, he he's really functioning, operating in two different venues in court. He did poorly. His answers were rambling and incoherent. To the extent he's not answering questions, the judge can rightfully infer that the answers would not be helpful to Mr. Trump. As Catherine just said, the judge is the trier of the facts. Like if you ask me, did I steal a cookie from the cookie jar? And I tell you that you're deranged and that you're a fraud and this whole process is a sham and it's a witch hunt. I think you can logically conclude that I stole the cookie from the cookie jar. In that venue, Mr. Trump did really poorly.

But there was another venue which he cares deeply about, and it was the one outside the courtroom. And I think for his supporters and his base, the combat of Trump is what they love, what they saw and what they got. So, you know, legally, no, it was a bit of a train wreck. Politically, time will tell. Yeah. Chuckie was even saying at one point, you know, and I hope the public is watching, very aware of the fact that this has a TV audience around the country of people who might vote for him. So what does this presage then for future trials and I guess and how can judges prevent this same spectacle from becoming just an extension of Donald Trump's political campaign? Yeah, great question, Katie. And I think Catherine alluded to the answer here.

So there was no jury in this particular case. And so the judge can hear irrelevant answers and ignore them and still make a decision on the merits, which I trust this judge will do. If a jury had been in the room, if the jury had been a trier of the fact, the judge would have had to really contain Mr. Trump much more than he did. Look, I grew up in as a federal prosecutor in a district where I don't believe any of the judges would have permitted this nonsense. And so a trial in front of a jury, number one, Katty, can look very different than a trial in front of a judge. And by the way, in a criminal case, and that's what remains for Mr. Trump in four instances, two federal and two state, in a criminal case, I think it's highly

unlikely that he even gets on the stand. So all this nonsense, all this rambling, all this incoherence, all this histrionics, the stuff you saw in a civil case in front of a judge is not something I think you're likely to see in a criminal case in front of a jury. Jonathan O'Meara, it is a it is a real split screen that we've been observing over the past six months or so, where you have Donald Trump, who, again, hurting himself legally, hurting himself in front of judges time and time again. But in many cases, that helping him politically. The Wall Street Journal's lead editorial this morning, will Donald Trump be indicted back into office? They cite an article that was actually in Politico last week that said that win it back PAC actually was going to use these trials against him,

use the court cases against him. And of the four ads, none of them moved any persuadables. And two of the four actually made those persuadables break more toward Donald Trump. So even while Donald Trump is blowing his businesses up in the court of law, the rambling that we see outside is actually connecting politically. So we may have a guy who loses his businesses, a guy who's fined $250 million and can't afford to pay it, a guy who ends up indicted and convicted in the Washington case, and a guy who's still the odds-on favorite to be the next president of the United States.

Trump has been very effective at weaponizing these criminal cases and this civil case to rally his supporters and Republicans. Polls show that some Republicans who are really on the fence about Trump have come back to him because of these prosecutions, that they think it's unfair. But we should note those much-discussed New York Times polls over the weekend. Part two of that was that if Trump were to be convicted in one of these, that would cause his support to drop about, on average, six points in each state, which would give just about all of them back to President Biden. So, again, there may be short term help here for Trump with the primaries. A general election could be a different story.

But Catherine, you know, next week, Trump was on the stand yesterday, but he might come back. The defense team is suggesting that he could they could call him as well, perhaps as early as next week. A, do you think that'll happen? And B, what do you think they would try to accomplish by bringing a pretty erratic witness back to the stand? It would only happen if Donald Trump insists on it. Because remember, if he comes back as their witness,

the prosecutors, the AG's office, then will get to cross-examine him. So it will only be because he's insisting he needs to do the show again and to appease his base. But it will just continue to hurt his case here. And in fact, he was asked about a financial statement from 2021. And he said, I was busy working on China and Russia and keeping our country safe, to which the state attorney said, you weren't president in 2021. He goes, oh, yeah, that's right. So that's the kind of witness he would be. Just quickly, Catherine, what for a viewer's guide, where is this headed next? How quickly might this be wrapped

up next? As tomorrow, Ivanka Trump is testifying and the attorney general said that she will be their last witness. And then the defense case and Donald Trump's will have his witnesses. He was saying yesterday he's going to have a bank from Deutsche Bank come. We'll see if that actually happens. Catherine Christian, Chuck Rosenberg. We will be watching this closely. Thanks so much. We appreciate it. Mika. All right. I just want to read this one part here of this Times or this Wall Street Journal. Question. The headline's a question. Yeah. Will Trump be indicted back into office? Two of the TV ads, quote, backfired across almost all demographic groups. One of those was the most pointed argument tested. Quote, I've been with Trump from the start,

the narrator says, but truthfully, I don't know what happens if he is convicted while he is running. The ads never ran because they all backfired. But as Jonathan says, day two of the New York Times-Siena poll story that ran, we didn't talk about so much yesterday, or was it, I guess it would be this morning. And that is that if he is convicted, then across all of those states, he loses an average of six points. So we'll see what happens. These could be short term gains, but there is no doubt. And then The Wall Street Journal cites it time and again where Donald Trump is starting to go down. He got indicted in Manhattan. His numbers went up. He got indicted in Georgia. His numbers went up. He got indicted

by the DOJ. His numbers went up among among Republicans and some independents. There's a lot to be said for cameras in the courtroom. And I know in different trials, they're fighting for that. And the media, the news media is. I do think he has the ability to control the narrative yesterday, leading his followers to believe he had a great day in court. Right. You know, when he didn't. I really think we need more transparency and not something that can be changed necessarily. Well, but it would help a lot if people saw what was happening in court. There's there's no doubt. There's no doubt about it. And Donald Trump is going to dominate once you get outside and you're in front of the cameras in front of microphones.

He's been doing it for 45 years. But the question really is, Katie, why in the world wouldn't Jack Smith make a motion? Why wouldn't they try to publicize the Washington, D.C. trial and have transparency? Americans will see it. We can think of one trial after another trial after. I mean, from O.J. Simpson to Johnny Depp. I mean, Americans sit, they watch. And it's not like Johnny Depp comes outside afterwards, talks to the press and frames the entire thing. People see whether it's O.J. or any of these other cases, people have a view of it the entire time and they can look at Donald Trump. And I must say, I'm quite confident if there's transparency, there will be a lot of people who will break off of him, especially

independents, because they will see the government's got him dead to right on this stuff. That may be the only time in history that Johnny Depp has ever been compared to Donald Trump, Joe. And I'm not sure what the pirate of the Caribbean would make of it. Listen, the argument that the Trump campaign is making is that this is a political vendetta and that each of these trials is just there to get Trump. And the fact that there are so many trials, in a sense, they're saying reinforces our case, that this is all about politics and trying to make sure that Donald Trump doesn't win the next election. So the way you try to dispel misinformation of that kind is by putting as much sunlight on it as possible. And if you had cameras in the courtroom, which so many journalists are calling for,

because this is a point of such public interest at a critical time in America's politics, would that help to show that the process was fair and legitimate and this was about the rule of law and not about politics. Now, I'm sure there will be many people who support Donald Trump who will never believe that whether there are cameras in the courtroom or not. But it's possible that a solid court proceeding conducted as American law should be conducted without the histrionics, what Chuck was saying earlier, because Donald Trump won't be on the stand, would actually give people a chance to say, no, this is not about political vendetta. This is not a witch hunt against Donald Trump. This is about the rule of law. And here are the facts in each of the case that lead to a conclusion of guilt or innocence. And you look, Mika, at the January 6th committee.

Everybody thought it was going to beth committee. Everybody thought it was going to be a dud. Everybody thought Americans wouldn't be tuning in. 20 million people watched. It actually made a difference. We'll talk about this more still ahead on Morning Show. A lot more to cover. Is there a third option for Israel and its military campaign against Hamas in Gaza? Richard Haass joins us with that also ahead. A closer look at what's on the ballot today in states across the country, including Ohio, where voters will decide on an amendment to protect abortion rights. We're back in 60 seconds. today marks one month since Hamas terrorist terrorists attacked Israel and Israeli forces

are advancing their ground operations, severing northern Gaza from the rest of the territory. Yesterday, Israel pounded the region with airstrikes. Officials say they hit 450 targets, killing a number of Hamas commanders. Casualties are expected to rise sharply once the war turns to close urban combat. Israeli media reports troops are expected to enter Gaza City soon. Meanwhile, in a phone call yesterday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, President Biden mentioned possible tactical pauses, saying they would allow time for more aid to enter Gaza and let civilians safely leave

the territory. The White House says it could also help with hostage negotiations. Shortly after that call, Netanyahu appeared on ABC News for his first televised interview since the October 7th terrorist attack. Here's what he had to say about the notion of a ceasefire. Well, there'll be no ceasefire, general ceasefire in Gaza without the release of our hostages. As far as tactical little pauses, an hour here, an hour there, we've had them before. I suppose we'll check the circumstances in order to enable goods, humanitarian goods to come in or our hostages, individual hostages to leave. But I don't think there's going to be a general ceasefire.

It's not that I don't think. I think it will hamper the war effort. It'll hamper our effort to get our hostages out, because the only thing that works on these criminals in Hamas is the military pressure that we're exerting. Joining us now, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass. His book, The Bill of Obligations, Ten Habits of Good Citizens, is out today in paperback. We're going to talk about the book. We're also going to talk about a recent article that you wrote that I want to talk about the third option. But before we do that,

I'm going to follow up on conversations that we've had and with Ed Luce, Financial Times, Ed Luce column that we read that Peggy Noonan wrote for The Wall Street Journal over the weekend and something that you wrote last week about the man we just saw there, Benjamin Netanyahu. And the question is how we move forward as Israel's closest ally and how we have other allies move forward with a man running Israel, a man that not only the world community doesn't trust, but far more importantly, the Israeli people don't trust. What Benjamin Netanyahu said right there, I think an awful lot of people would agree with. But the fact that he is the messenger and the fact that nobody

believes that he's not taking actions without trying to resurrect his own political career almost negates the message itself. You know, the message, the medium is the message. And in this case, nobody has any confidence in Netanyahu. Look, it's true. In China, you have the expression mandate of heaven. That's what leaders need. Well, Bibi Netanyahu has Look, it's true. In China, you have the expression mandate of heaven. That's what leaders need. Well, Bibi Netanyahu has lost the mandate of heaven. He's not trusted or respected by a lot of the Israeli people. There's only two ways to remove him. One is in parliament.

He could be replaced by some other figure or future elections. Not going to have elections in the middle of this crisis. So the only real thing is to see if the Israelis decide to remove him. But the only thing we can control, Joe, is our policy towards him. And where I would disagree at times or suggest is the United States ought to become more forceful. He's not a partner in many ways. And I think so we're probably stuck with him for the foreseeable future. But I don't think he can have a veto on everything that goes on. Well, we have to be more forceful. We have to be more forceful because if you talk to and I have high ranking members of the Trump administration, I've talked to him recently. I've talked to people in the Biden administration. I mean, the problem is that what we learned a month ago is how much the Israelis depend on the United States in so many ways. We have to have a say and we have to be able to say what you were talking about, which is, yes, we will defend Israel's right to exist. Yes,

we will support you as you go to root out and destroy Hamas. Yes, we will help you fight to get the hostages back. But no, we will not sit back meekly while you allow radical settlers in the West Bank to run, run around, hunt down Palestinians and shoot them, thereby thereby creating a situation, Richard, where we may have Israel fighting Hamas, Hezbollah in the north and Palestinians in the West Bank. They're making this situation, they're making a horrible situation worse unless they get control of the extremists in the West Bank. And Netanyahu has never done that. 100 percent right. But those people are critical to his political coalition right now. It also undermines the fight against Hamas. What we need to show, what the Israelis need to show is there's an alternative path to the satisfaction of legitimate

Palestinian political aspirations. And that means no settler violence. It means no more new settlements. It means opening up, building up the capacity of the Palestinian Authority and the West Bank, moving towards a Palestinian state there. You have to show that the path to Palestinian political success is not Hamas violence, is something else. But the Israelis keep undermining the something else. So as a result, Hamas is something of a monopoly on Palestinian politics. And that's outrageous. Yeah. Richard, in your latest Substack piece, you write about a third option for Israel, quote, and this is part of it. What would this third option require? Israel's military effort would be recast as long term and low intensity rather than short term and intense.

Israel would need to forego military strikes that would likely result in a large number of civilian casualties. Israel would accept pauses if Hamas did as well, restrain settlement activity and hold off any further annexation. Settler violence would be reined in and dreams of transfer of Palestinians out of occupied territories would be jettisoned. I expect much of this would be unacceptable to Bibi Netanyahu, Israel's embattled prime minister. It would be up to Israel's parliament to replace him or the Israeli public to elect someone prepared to back something along the lines of this third option. I expect this would only have a chance of happening if President Biden were to become a strong advocate for such an Israeli policy. And what would also happen with Netanyahu out, you would have a government out where he's placed extremists in the cabinet that basically were so obsessed with the West Bank that they didn't see October 7th coming.

And so you have that tragedy as well. So, my God, actually getting competent people back in the cabinet instead of people whose only focus is to be as extreme as possible, to keep Netanyahu in office. I must also say, Richard, your third option is also more possible now because Israel has cordoned off Gaza. It is cut in half. And at this point, you can conduct the low intensity urban warfare without the continued dropping of bombs at the rate they've been dropping them. Yeah, I think the Israelis have to get rid of the notion that somehow going in big and doing this fast is the answer.

I understand why Bibi Netanyahu might want to do things the way he wants something big and dramatic to undo the failures of October 7th. But that's not the way you're going to successfully conduct an operation. Plus, now he's talking about Israeli occupation, open ended of Gaza. That means a lot of Israelis, I fear soldiers are going to are going to get killed. And again, that's who are they going to hand it off to? You know, when you go into these things and Israelis ought to have learned this in Lebanon, it's one thing to enter a hostile territory. It's something else to govern it and hand it off to something better that can survive.

I simply do not see a strategy on Israel's side about what comes next, what comes the morning after. Because the Palestinian Authority, the Arab world, the U.N., none of these have the will and the capability to run Gaza. And none of them are going to allow Israel to midwife this political process. It'll undermine any legitimacy it has. So I really don't understand what the Israelis are embarking on here. So as we heard in that interview, Richard, that was from last night, Prime Minister Netanyahu was completely unmoved by any calls for ceasefire from the U.N., from activist groups, from anyone, because he says if we cease firing, Hamas comes right back at us. We know what that means. So when you talk about what comes next,

what are the possibilities even? Isn't it just that Hamas or some other version of Hamas comes back to power, even if, as Netanyahu has said, our goal is to completely squash Hamas. What happens after that? That's my concern. So if you don't call it Hamas, something Hamas-like would happen. Everything Israel's doing, Willie, is generating the next generation of Hamas. Israel needs to rebuild its defenses. What happened on October 7th wasn't just about Hamas. Israel never should have allowed that to happen. It's got to improve its intelligence, rebuild its defenses, restore deterrence. I think that that that that is possible. And it's got to build an alternative.

That alternative has got to be in the West Bank. You can't beat something with nothing. So, yes, you have a military strategy and Israel goes in whenever it has a high value target and is not going to kill a lot of civilians. I think the Israelis have to undertake this with much more careful targeting. The idea that you can any strike is justified no matter how many civilians get killed because you have a Hamas target is not a sustainable strategy, but they need a political dimension to their policy. You can't win this kind of a struggle with only military force. That's why it's so important that they begin the process of building a Palestinian alternative in the West Bank, stop undermining them, rein in the settlers big time. And again, send the message,

what Hamas is doing is a dead end. Show, make the West Bank a positive Palestinian experience, build up the capacity. Then you could have a serious conversation about the Palestinian Authority, maybe working with some Arab countries going into Gaza. Maybe that might be five or 10 years from now. But we've got to get to that point. And the path they're on will not get us to that point. Well, we've got to get to that point. And it does start with the Israeli government not undermining the Palestinian Palestinian authority like Netanyahu has done for well over a decade.

Because, again, that's the nonviolent approach. And yet they're being undermined every day right now. And the reason I'm talking about this is not only because Palestinians because a two state solution is best for Palestinians, a two state solution. Whether extremists and Benjamin Netanyahu's government believes it or not, is the best thing for Israel. And they've got to start looking ahead, as Richard says, they've got to start planning ahead. Because when you undermine the Palestinian authority, day after day after day after day, you build up groups like Hamas. And we saw one month ago today, Mika, what that leads to.

Exactly. And Benjamin Netanyahu does not want to talk about the context in which this happened. He does not want to talk about that because then it addresses the massive security failure that happened under his leadership. So he will put that off as much as possible. Richard, the bill of obligations, 10 habits of good citizens out today in paperback. How is the United States citizenry doing in its Bill of Obligations? Not so good. Not so good. Look, I always say you get the government you deserve, not the government you need.

So citizens have got to get more involved. Look, we've got an election coming up in a year. You've been talking about the polls. Look, what recent history shows, and you all know this better than I do, is small numbers can really have outsized outcomes. So we've got to get Americans more informed. You've got to motivate people to vote. They've got to start supporting politicians who put the country before their party or before their personal goals. And if they continue to, if we, not they, we, if we continue

to support politicians who put our own personal goals first or the party, we're going to have the mess we have in Washington. And you know where this is heading. There's longer term things too, Mika. We've got to get civics taught in our high schools and our colleges. It is crazy that you can graduate from most of this country's high schools and colleges, never having read the Declaration of Independence, never having read the Constitution or the Federalist Papers, not knowing why democracy is good, what it takes for one to operate. We've got to scale up public service. States are going to probably have to do it. California's doing it. Maryland's looking at it. We've got to get Americans to do some public service. States are going to probably have to do it. California is doing it. Maryland's looking at it. We've got to get Americans to do some public service. It brings people together who otherwise would never meet, who continue to see government as the enemy. So

we've got to work on two tracks. We've got to deal with the immediate challenge of 2024. And we've got to change the foundation of democracy in this country. Look, in two and a half years, we've got the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence on July 4, 2026. I want to make sure my goal, it's it's both big and simple. I want to make sure that American democracy at its 250th anniversary is still intact. It's still robust. And quite honestly, we've got two and a half years and a lot of work to do. The bill of obligations, the 10 habits of good citizens out today in paperback, Richard Haass, as always, thank you very much for being on this morning. And coming up, speaking of it's election day in America, and we're covering all the key issues. Jonathan Martin will join us on

how the race in one key state will not only choose a governor, but also could potentially elect a future president. He'll explain that next on Morning Joe. We are now ready to call the college football national championship. I've seen enough. Alabama is going to be this year's NCAA football champion. Joe, they look good on Saturday night, right? The quarterback's coming into his own. They only have one loss. They got a big one this weekend to get Ole Miss. They get to that championship game. They beat the dogs. They're in, man. They're in. I've got to tell you jalen milrow of course one of his first big game was against texas he was basically a glorified freshman never really

taken snaps yeah and uh he threw a couple of bad passes and you know of course at alabama we expect to win every game everybody's like melting down i was like the kids are freshmen give him a chance i don't know how much of the LSU game you saw the other night. He looked like a Heisman Trophy winner. He was incredible. Imagine now trying to defend against a guy who can pass the ball 50 yards on a dime with great running backs. And when he gets down the open field and runs, defensive backs quake. He runs them over. I don't know if you saw.

I mean, he busted a guy's shoulder. He was running to the end zone. And they build them big at LSU. Runs into the end zone, literally runs over a linebacker who falls to the ground, and he stares at him. I mean, and I'm dead serious. Could you imagine being a defensive coordinator going, okay, we got a guy who can run better than most running backs,

who can pass better than most quarterbacks. They've got an extraordinary running attack. And by the way, their defense, how many number one draft picks is Alabama going to have on the defensive side of the ball this year? Yeah, and it's always one game in Tuscaloosa. That's Jonathan Martin. He wants to chime in on all this. Are LSU fans going to get equal time here at some point on this network?

You could have it. I don't know if you want it after what happened. A targeting call that was not called against Jaden Daniels is outrageous. He knocked LSU's quarterback out of the game. He should be one of the Heisman. He's a good player. He's a good player. He's a good player. But, Joe, as you know, one loss is panic time in Tuscaloosa.

They're fine right now. Try three in Baton Rouge. Well, yeah, you're outback bull. Exactly. But, yeah, that quarterback is good. He runs a 4-4, and I don't know how big he is. He's huge. They got a good shot, Joe.

But the SEC is brutal, right? You got a couple more really hard games than beat Georgia probably in the SEC championship game, and you're there. We're playing Kentucky. We've got always stuffed Chattanooga. You just don't want to take on the Chattanooga. The mocks, man. You don't want to take on the mocks on a Saturday night

rolling into Chattanooga. That's like, I mean, that's a gauntlet. And then we're playing in Auburn on the Plains. So that's going to be something. And then, you know, if all goes well, a heck of an SEC championship game against Georgia, so long as the Bulldogs keep on winning. But speaking of Kentucky, Willie, speaking of Kentucky, the tide plays

my mom and dad's Wildcats this weekend. But man, tonight, a big race in Kentucky. Yes. The aforementioned Jonathan Martin is writing about that in his latest piece. He takes a look at the possible political futures for both candidates in Kentucky's governor's race. So Jonathan, before we talk about the future, let's talk about tonight. Sure. So you've got an incumbent governor, Andy Beshear, anchor down, Vanderbilt guy, a Democrat in a state that Donald Trump won by 25, 26 points. He's been walking that line to win that first race. And while he's in office now, you've got a rising star, the Attorney General Daniel Cameron, polling real tight.

What are you expecting tonight? Well, Beshear is a unicorn in Kentucky. He's the last independently elected Democrat in the state. There's nobody left but him. He's the last Democrat in Kentucky. He shouldn't be there politically, given the state's tilt. But he's a very capable politician and he's mostly known, Willie, as a sort of capable, adroit administrator in response to COVID, a series of natural

disasters. And when you have that halo and you're not seen as political, that could be a huge help to you when you're an incumbent governor seeking reelection. To your point, let's put that number back up. This is a Democrat in the state of Kentucky. Governor Beshear has a 60 percent approval rating, one of the most popular governors in the nation. That's a lot of Republicans in that poll who are saying that they like him because they view him not as a partisan, but as somebody who's done a good job administrating government. So Donald Trump has endorsed Daniel Cameron here. How are you expecting this to shake out tonight?

Well, I think that the Cameron folks would have liked to have had President Trump come into the state. It would have been helpful the last few days to have come in there to rally support. That didn't obviously happen. But look, this is Kentucky. I expect to see a close race tonight. It's the kind of campaign where I think we could be up late watching the returns. Don't forget, part of the state on Central Times. We're probably not going to know, at least until about 830 or 9 tonight.

John? So, Jonathan, let's talk to us about how the governor has handled his relationship and distance from President Joe Biden, who obviously is deeply unpopular in the state of Kentucky. Yes. How has he navigated that with with a win tonight? I think there's going to be White House chatter about his future, too. Yeah, no, absolutely. I think whichever of these candidates win tonight, as I wrote my column this week, they're going to get 2028 chatter, whether it's for president or for VP. John, there's no question about it. Look, I think Bashir has tried to sort of carefully avoid Biden the best he can. Look, when they've had a natural disaster in the state,

he's welcomed Biden. Besides that, he's not really seen with the president. I was in the state twice this year, both times talking to Bashir. I asked him about President Biden. He doesn't like saying the president's name very much, and he doesn't like talking about his policies very much at all. In fact, the only policy that he praised Biden on is infrastructure, which, by the way, Mitch McConnell also voted for. So not really a sort of daring lefty issue. So he's carefully sidestepping the national party. He wants to localize the race. And Cameron wants to nationalize the race.

Cameron's entire campaign is Bashir is a vote for Biden. So this is a great test tonight, Willie, of that classic, classic strategy of can one candidate localize the race or can the other candidate nationalize the race? So you're writing in this piece about the future. So let's look at, we're talking about the bench that the Democrats have as they look at 2024, getting nervous and scared about what could happen there. But you've got Governor Beshear, you've got Josh Shapiro and Gretchen Whitmer and Wes Moore and Gavin Newsom. They feel like they have a deep bench. Does Governor Beshear have bigger aspirations in the job he's in now?

Some would say it's kind of like the Bama recruiting class that Saban gets to Tuscaloosa year in, year out, Joe. I mean, it really is a murderer's row of talent. And you gotta imagine, Will, that those guys right now, literally this week, they gotta be pining to run in 24. That avenue is obviously shut off for obvious reasons. But that generation certainly is chafing. And I think if Bashir does win tonight, you have to include his name in that litany of governors. Look, he will probably be one of two Democratic governors left in the entire South next year if he does win. He's middle-aged, obviously a white guy. And if the party has challenges with white males going forward, as it obviously has,

you can see him being a sensible fit for at least VP. The new piece online for Politico, senior political columnist and Bayou Bengals fan, Jonathan Marks. Go Tigers. Yes. Go Tigers, as Edward Drown would say.