Morning Joe - Morning Joe 1/17/25

Episode Date: January 17, 2025

Israeli security cabinet voting on deal

Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Friday, January 17th. We have a lot to get to this morning, including the latest from Israel as the ceasefire and hostage release deal goes to the country's cabinet for final approval. Also ahead, we have a recap of yesterday's confirmation hearings on Capitol Hill including the nominee who seemed to have the best day so far in front of lawmakers there. And we'll go through the fallout from the ousting of Republican Congressman Mike Turner as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. We'll talk about that. Plus, Major League Baseball is remembering a broadcasting icon.

Top of the sixth and rookie sensation Ricky Vaughn on the pitch now. You can close the book on Keldor. Thank God. Vaughn into the windup in his first offering. Just a bit outside. He tried to corner. We'll look back at the legendary career of Bob Uecker. Nobody like Bob Uecker. You know, Uecker first came into the national sort of spotlight for,

I think it was Miller Lite commercials. And he would always say, best seats in the house. And then it was always, he was sort of like the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball, always making fun of himself. But boy, that that guy so beloved by baseball fans for generations. Yeah, I think he would those ads you go must be the front row where he thought he had his ticket and it would end up in the last in the last row to say that seats in the has to what an icon, you know, a pretty good player who worked hard and

had a lengthy career and then who really made himself into this cultural icon by just being himself. He was, everyone who knew him said this was genuine, it was Bob Euker, he was funny, he was ebullient, he was kind, and then the Waukee Brewers legend, an icon of that city. There you go, must be in the front row,

right there, heading up. And someone who was working, there he is in his familiar perch up top. Best seats in the familiar first. Work until he was 90 years old just a guy and dearly missed a great great line to Robinson let's let's be very clear here because he's so beloved. Yeah, and this is a lesson for everybody because he was so beloved even Jonathan LaMir said a pretty good ballplayer let's let let let's let's not

put lipstick on this. Exactly. He was not that good. He was on the Mendoza line. He batted 200. 200 was his lifetime batting average. He was a backup catcher.

Great guy. And just let's let's just be you know with the obituaries and tributes are supposed to be factual. So let's be factual. Wasn't a great ballplayer was a great guy and just let's let's just be you know with the obituaries and tributes are supposed to be factual. So let's be factual wasn't a great ball player was a great guy worked until like 2023. I think you know he just an amazing career he had as a as a broadcaster and as a as a personality. Yeah. Yeah. You know yesterday we're we're gonna be talking about a broadcaster and as a personality. Yeah, yeah.

You know, yesterday, we're going to be talking about a lot of things this morning, going to get to Israel, but you know, we talked about the Treasury Secretary pick, and it's very interesting that for some of the larger cabinet picks, like Scott DeSantis, even though he said things on tax cuts that I would guess just about every Democrat disagreed with. You know, for Republicans who are saying, oh, Democrats are being so harsh on all of Donald Trump's, it's just not the case. For some of the most important selections, Marco Rubio, bipartisan, bipartisan hearing,

he's going to have a bipartisan vote. You have the same thing with the incoming CIA director, John Radcliffe, who's, by the way, went to every Democrat, every Republican, did it in old school the way you're supposed to do it. Everybody treated him with respect. Treasury secretary, again, even though they disagree with him on taxes and tariffs, he was treated respectfully. He's going to get a bipartisan vote. There are

three or four that cause grave concerns for really good reasons, but you know what, let's not miss the forests for the trees and especially these Republicans and Maga types saying, oh, the Democrats are saying no to everything. They're not. If you look for most of these selections, they're going to get bipartisan support. I mean, we've been talking in recent weeks about the kind of resistance posture of 2017 versus what's emerging now. And I think that's an example of it, where there is the option to just blanketly oppose everything. And I think what's emerging now is different, Saying, you know, Akash Patel,

who is talking about jailing journalists, is a different threat level to the country than someone with policy views that you might have differences with on trade or tariffs or taxes or whatever. And to actually differentiate those is good. It allows you to hold your fire and allows you to be, you know,

not the boy who cried wolf. So we'll get to much more on this. As you can see, Anand and Jean are here also with us. President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haas. He's the author of the weekly newsletter Home and Away, available on Substack. And president of the National Action Network and host of MSNBC's Politics Nation, Reverend Al Sharpton, and U.S. special correspondent for BBC News, Cady Kay is with us. We're gonna get into the news in a second.

Okay. The main news. I'm wondering, Cady Kay, are you our David Lynch correspondent in London? I mean, a big loss for the movie and the art world. I mean, you talk about a guy that saw through his lens and saw through his eyes differently than everybody else. David Lynch creating really his own genre of movie making. Yeah, and he was young. I mean, I think I'm right that he was only 72, and you think how much he's already achieved

and how much more he could have done. He's certainly gonna be 78, he was. Yeah, yeah. how much he's already achieved and how much more he could have done. Certainly going to be 78 he was. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, I feel like he was younger because we've lost somebody who's created so much and has been, you know, and continuously doing things that broke the mold. I think that's how he will be remembered here.

Over and over. All right. A lot to get to on this Friday morning. We'll start now with the latest out of the Middle East big news. The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed that negotiating teams have agreed to the ceasefire and hostage release deal. Now, a security cabinet meeting is set for this morning to vote on the deal, with the full cabinet meeting set

to vote later and then time allotted for Israel's Supreme Court to hear any appeals. Still a few hurdles. Netanyahu's office says that despite the delays the ceasefire is still expected to go into effect Sunday with three hostages released then. Israel delayed the security cabinet vote yesterday blaming Hamas for creating a last-minute crisis without providing details. Yeah, and Richard, obviously, when this was first broke, I'm sure you thought the same thing that I thought, which is, okay, maybe this is going to happen. It's probably going to happen because you have two American presidents that are now

leaning on Israel and Hamas to make this happen. But you knew the obstacle was going to be Bibi Netanyahu not managing negotiations with Hamas, but managing negotiations with the most extreme right-wing members of his own cabinet. And sure enough, that happened. Absolutely right. But we'll get this first phase. This is going to happen. It gets, though, more difficult every phase you go on.

So the second phase, which again involves not just hostages for prisoners, the last remaining live hostages, a lot more Palestinian prisoners, Israel then would have to actually vacate completely the Gaza Strip. And I think that gets more complicated. And the third phase, which talks about all the arrangements for what comes after, we're not even in that zip code yet.

So I think this gets progressively more difficult as we go on. But my sentence, Joe, Bibi Netanyahu could not not go ahead with this first phase. It would have been like Lucy in the football. Right. Expectations are so high, emotionally so desperate in Israel to get this done, this had to go through. Well, I'll say also, Gadi, Bibi Netanyahu knows what we've been saying here. He's not the most popular politician in Israel.

He's not close to being the most popular politician in Israel. He's not close to being the most popular politician in Israel. Just like Joe Biden was the most popular politician in Israel after October 7th. That is now Donald Trump and Donald Trump is going to lean on him very very hard. That's obviously what happened here. He's been saying for the past month. He wants this resolved or there's going to be held out of

the pay. So I'm not exactly sure where Bibi Netanyahu had left to go. No, I mean, it was interesting to hear Joe Biden very explicitly say that this was a deal that had been negotiated by his team, although he gave credit in these final days of getting it over the line also to the incoming Trump administration, but clearly saying, listen, this was the deal that had been put in place back last spring, and it could have been in place then. But already this is being seen in the region as the impact of Donald Trump coming into office.

Now, whether this means that America going forward is going to be seen as having more power in the region than it's had over the last two years, since the 18 months or so, since the invasion of October the 7th, because one of the things that's been really laid stark over the last period since that Hamas invasion is how little power the United States has had, how little power the Biden administration has had to get the deal that it wanted to get done.

They couldn't, America was not being in the position of pushing hard to get this done. Will that be different now Donald Trump is coming into office? There are some indications and some suggestions that this already shows that it is. But let's see, let's see if Bibi Netanyahu's coalition actually survives this and let's see as Richard is saying,

we get the first phase of this done, but this is a long period in every stage. It gets more and more tenuous and more fragile. Well, and you know, Jonathan, for anybody that's been in the White House, reported on the White House, interviewed Joe Biden on or off the record, there's just no doubt Biden had a horrific relationship with Netanyahu for at least a year. Really was angry that Netanyahu would not move towards a peace agreement. And so, yeah, so their relationship was almost non-existent because it wasn't in that Yahoo's political, in his political favor to come to a peace treaty, bring the hostages home, do the things that Joe Biden

and the rest of the world wanted to be done. So now you do have a new administration coming in, Trump coming in. And their attitude is they're going to pick up where they left off with the Abraham Accords. And we're fully expecting to have an Israel-Saudi deal soon after. And I suspect part of what happens in Gaza may have to do with money that Saudi Arabia provides for the rebuilding of Gaza. Yeah, first on the Biden part, he went to Israel in the days after October 7th, literally wrapped Netanyahu in a hug. But since then, the relationship slowly at first and then rapidly deteriorated, where to the point where Biden seized with anger at how Netanyahu would go back on promises,

would move the goalpost in terms of what deal would be made, how he would say one thing privately and another thing very publicly, and how he would continue to kowtow to the conservative wishes of his cabinet. Biden privately blames Netanyahu for prolonging a war that he believes hurt his reelection chances earlier last year. This is a different moment now, though. Netanyahu, for the most part, has enjoyed a good relationship with Trump. They did have a brief falling out after Netanyahu recognized Biden's win in 2020. Trump got mad at him for acknowledging that Joe Biden won the election, but they have patched that

up and they are close. And I'm told that part of this, Eugene, is that the Netanyahu government wants to get off on the right foot with the Trump team coming in. That they had relations last time, they want that as well. Also, the chaotic sort of bombastic approach that Trump takes to the office where he said literally they'd be held to pay in the Middle East if a deal wasn't struck before he took office could have spooked all parties involved. That said, there's still skepticism that this deal will hold and Netanyahu will follow through. I was speaking to someone in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee just yesterday

who had real concerns that at the end, Netanyahu would find some way to submarine it if he thought it was for his own advantage. Really, exactly. And I think he would have, my question about Netanyahu is, his governing coalition is far right that's not gonna far right that's not going to like this deal, that doesn't like this deal, that doesn't want any deal, that wants the final end of

Hamas and essentially Israeli annexation of Gaza and the West Bank or Judea and Samaria. And so he has to deal with that as well. I do think that the Trump coming into office created a new situation. The other new situation is how weak Hamas is right now. I mean, they have, you know, their patrons, Syria, Iran, that whole axis or arc is severely weakened now. In the case of Syria, out of power.

Hezbollah is much weaker. Hamas has no backup, and they've been battered. And so it's certainly in their interest to make this deal. You know, Rev, I'm not sure that Bibi Netanyahu reads Truman Capote, but if he did, he could read a book called Answered Prayers, where Capote says more tears are shed over answered prayers than any other kind. And he so wanted Donald Trump to beat Joe Biden. And so much of what he did, it seemed, during the campaign, was to help divide Biden's Democratic

Party and make his pathway to the presidency much easier, Donald Trump's. So he got his answered prayer and now he's going to be a junior partner in running Israel. And if you talk to people in the Trump administration, they basically said there were times during the Abraham Accords where people say, just step aside, we'll take care of this. So he got what he wants, and now he's feeling, you know, the leverage that Trump has over him, and he's gonna be a junior partner's own country, and that's actually what he was aiming for. I don't think he likes this result,

but he's now being pushed to the edge. He's being pushed to the edge, and it's being very dramatically shown he'll be pushed to the edge. I think that the real problem is going to be in phase two and three. I think that you must remember as this was even announced, there's still people being killed in the Gaza at this point. Can we just underline that fact?

People still being killed. And the humanitarian crisis that the news media was all reporting about six months ago, nine months ago, it's only gotten worse. That's right. It's heinous there. I mean, the world is going to be horrified when this ceasefire takes place and humanitarian assistance comes in. The world is going to be horrified at the scale of suffering in Gaza. That's my point.

I think that we have not really seen the depths of what happened in Gaza. And as I said, there's killing going on right now. Hopefully we'll end Sunday. And we don't know the conditions of some of the hostages when they return. The emotions, the families, it's almost like the bodies of the hostages and the bodies of innocent people in Gaza don't matter that this is just a political chess game with Netanyahu and Biden and Trump. What about the people that are in the middle of this? And that's what the threat of phase two and three, because those emotions and those reactions are going to really dictate a lot.

What the world sees would really happen in Gaza. And when the world really sees these hostages, it's going to turn public opinion. And it's going to be some climate that Trump and Netanyahu is going to have to negotiate. And Richard, final word on this. We're going to be getting back to this throughout the hour, but you'd wanted to get in final word. Yeah, I wanted to come back on your point about answered prayers.

Donald Trump clearly had real leverage over Bibi Netanyahu here. And the funny sort of way, because Bibi Netanyahu no longer had the leverage of going around Joe Biden to Donald Trump. It was a little bit like Nixon going to China. Right. So Trump has the evangelicals, has conservative American Jews. And I think that will help get this deal certainly phase one, probably phase two, because you've got to get all the hostages back.

But and that's the big button, maybe also the deal with the Saudis. I don't think though there is any appetite that I have discovered for tackling the fundamentals of the Israeli-Palestinian issue. So no one should look at this as good as this is, as welcome this is. This ain't peace. I totally agree with you. We are not far down that road at all.

Bob Uecker, we talked about this morning. This is still the first inning here. We've got a long, long ways to go. This is real. Not just this Israeli government, Joe. Israel has changed, in part because of October 7th and part because of demographics. I'm not sure Israel is psychologically and politically prepared to go much beyond this. I'm not sure the Trump administration's prepared to push much

beyond this. I'm not sure Palestinians are ready yet to coexist peacefully with Israel on a large scale. So this, as good as this is, it's just a time also for keeping it in perspective. Good perspective, yep. But let us make no mistake, and I understand, Israelis that wanted the two-state solution before October 7th, they don't want to talk about it right now. Palestinians obviously aren't going to trust Israelis talking about a two-state solution. But, Annan, you can't have Middle East peace and ignore the Palestinian issue. And the Abraham Accords approved that.

Abraham Accords made great strides forward, but they thought they could do it without the Palestinians. And the Arab leaders I talk to around the region say, next round, okay, we're going to, again, the Saudis make a deal with the Israelis. Fantastic. We get other countries making deals with the Israelis, but there has, the Palestinians have to be a part of that equation because there will never be peace in the Middle East until we take care of the Palestinian question and

offer some sort of two state solution. I think that's absolutely correct. I think what's really interesting about this moment of two presidents who don't much like each other working together and maybe that pushing this over the line is that it feels like America discovered its power and leverage in this moment after 15, 16 months of being the most powerful country in the world and sort of asking Netanyahu nicely

to stop doing things he was doing in the way he was doing them and not really going much further than asking nicely and sending strongly worded letters and continuing to send money and sending weapons. There was something in a way very humiliating for American power over the last year plus where the most powerful country in the history of the world seems to not be able to control a very small country who is its financial dependent. And so maybe it is this kind of thing of presidents working together where we rediscover our power and leverage to say, if we think this is a moral and humanitarian catastrophe, which

I believe it is, we should act like it. We should put conditions on everyone we help, not just Israel. We shouldn't be writing checks to support things we think are disasters. So I hope the notion of power and leverage is sustained through whatever phases come. I want to add, and I want everybody to put a bookmark on this too, because, you know, I can't tell you how many times I heard people coming up to me going, Kamala Harris is going to lose because she's not going to get the Jewish voters, because Joe Biden has been tough on this or Joe Biden's been tough on that.

And I don't know if there were political calculations on Joe Biden not standing up more strongly to Benjamin Netanyahu and not sending over the weapons without conditions because maybe he thought Democrats couldn't afford to lose the Jewish vote. But same as it ever was. 80%. Same as it ever was. Kamala Harris, after all of the yammering, I heard, oh, Jews will not support Democrats this.

This is the time it does. 70, 75, 80% of American Jews voted for Kamala Harris. They just do. So if you're sitting there going, oh my gosh, I can't put conditions on bombs that I'm sending to Israel if I'm afraid that there's a humanitarian crisis. And I'm not saying we don't know what the next crisis is going to be. But if you're a Democrat and you're making that calculation, that is the wrong calculation to make. You make the calculation based on what's best for the United States, best for the humanitarian

crisis on the ground, and don't sit there wringing your hands going, I'm not going to get the Jewish vote, because that's just not the case year after year after year after year. All right. We're going to get back to this. And we've got a lot more to get to, including President Biden's final interview as president. Still ahead on Morning Joe, will TikTok get banned this weekend? We'll take a look at where things stand for the popular social media

app ahead of a Supreme Court decision. Morning Joe is back in 90 seconds. And even though he talks a very tough game about China, there is one guy who really does like TikTok. We're looking at TikTok. We have some very big news on TikTok. I'm on TikTok now. I know a lot about TikTok. I have some very big news on TikTok. I'm on TikTok now. I know a lot about TikTok. I'm now a big star on TikTok.

We'll take a look at TikTok. We're looking at TikTok. We may be banning TikTok. We're not doing anything with TikTok. Joe Biden is responsible for banning TikTok. If people want to save TikTok, they have to vote for me. I could have banned TikTok. I'm the one that says we should save TikTok.

TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok banned TikTok. I'm the one that says we should save TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok.

TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. TikTok. Kid Rock.

No, wait, no, that's... It's unrelated. It has nothing to do with... You know, in the first term, it was China, China, China. I think it's going to be TikTok. All right. The Supreme Court is likely to share its decision on whether to ban TikTok today. Last week, the court heard oral arguments over a new federal law that requires the social

media app divest from its Chinese-based parent company by Sunday or face a nationwide ban. The Biden administration says if the ban goes through, the White House does not plan to find companies that allow access to the app, deferring the implementation of the law to the incoming Trump administration. In an appearance on Fox News yesterday, Trump's incoming national security adviser, Congressman Mike Waltz, said the president-elect will try to save the app. Well, President Trump, and this is in line with the legislation, we will put measures in place to keep TikTok from going dark.

In the legislation allows for an extension as long as a viable deal is on the table. And then, you know, essentially that buys President Trump time to keep Tick-Tock going. It's been a great platform for him and his campaign to get his America first message out. But at the same time, he wants to protect their data. But, you know, the thing is, and Congressman Walt soon to be national security adviser, Walt, has been, Gene Robinson, a fierce critic of the excesses of communist China.

What I'm so hor- what I've always been horrified about with TikTok and have always encouraged my family not to have TikTok on their phone is you're letting the communist Chinese government control what you see through communist Chinese government's algorithms and then you're letting the communist Chinese government scrape data from from you possibly from your phone are you laughing at me are you you thinking I'm sounding too much like a 1950's cold warrior Cold War warrior actually I'm surprisingly sympathetic to where you're going on this okay.

I was a mock. But I find it insane. I find it absolutely insane that there is an app out there. Yeah, we're allowing the communist Chinese government to surveil our children to surveil our families to surveil our businesses to surveil our businesses, to surveil our politicians, to surveil our campuses, to surveil America. This is insanity. So I mean, I am hopeful that the incoming national security advisor and the incoming president, I know it would be unpopular to ban this, but I hope that they are unbelievably aggressive in putting up a Chinese wall, so to speak,

between the Communist Chinese government and whomever takes control of this app. And by the way, that shouldn't be Elon Musk because he is so in bed business-wise with a Communist Chinese government, he would be the last person that people like Congressman Walz should trust having control of this because he would do exactly what the communist Chinese government would want him to. Yeah, he's not the one to give the keys to the henhouse. If you've heard what outgoing FBI director Chris Wray has been saying, he has been warning of this sort of vacuum cleaner of information, this vacuum that's in China

that is sucking in Americans' data, all kinds of information in any number of different ways and certainly through TikTok as well, and he warns how dangerous this is going forward. So you don't have to be kind of an unreconstructed cold warrior to be concerned about any foreign power, you know, amassing, infiltrating our cyber realm, our cyber lives to this extent,

and collecting that much information and you have to worry about what in the worst case it could be it could be used for in the future. So so this is you know Chris Ray has been has been trying to sound an alarm on this and and one hopes it's something that the incoming administration will take seriously and will try to address. Yeah, at the moment there isn't any evidence. I mean, there hasn't been any evidence up to date that the Chinese state has decided

to use TikTok to attack America or divide America. But what's one of America's weaknesses? One of America's weaknesses is that everybody is siloed. We're in rage bubbles. We don't like each other in the country. And if you can't beat America militarily or you can't beat it economically, communication mediums are an incredibly powerful tool. Ask any regime throughout history, right?

If you control communication, you can do an autolot of damage to your adversaries. What's to say that it's not just the data they're accumulating, but it becomes a two-way street, and that's used to increase those divisions and weaknesses that already exist in American society. I would feel if you're going to cite national security as a reason to put tariffs on Canada and Mexico, but you don't think there's a national security concern with giving access to China to have one of the most powerful

communication tools in American media. That seems a little bit of a disconnect. Yeah, we'll just note the Biden administration considered whether or not to explore sort of an extension to keep TikTok going beyond the ban. They opted against that. They don't think they're going to enforce the ban in these next couple of days.

And as the ban looms for TikTok, we should note the apps that are surging as possible replacements on the app store. Well, similar concerns perhaps will be held. The two biggest are both Chinese backed apps. One, its name literally translates to Little Red Book, i.e. Chairman Mao's Little Red Book. It is an Instagram-esque video application.

And the other is called Lemon 8, It is an Instagram-esque video application. And the other is called Lemon 8, a similar app that's also owned by ByteDance, the same company that owns TikTok, with the connections to the Chinese Communist Party. So the replacements that Americans are considering in the wake of this TikTok ban have the same problematic issues. We will sell them the rope. What was Lennon's vote? For our own hanging. For their hanging. For their own hanging. This is an extraordinarily powerful surveillance tool

by the communist Chinese government. And the fact that you have politicians that aren't all standing shoulder to shoulder, providing more protections is crazy. And of course, you look at what Russia has done, and they deliberately have sent out misinformation and political campaigns to try to divide Americans. This is, I mean, people on both sides. You know, we're going to talk about a chairman who was stripped of his position on the Intel committee because he actually stood on the floor last term and he said, you all, you Republicans, you're receiving Russian disinformation and you're spouting it on the floor of the

people's house. So Russia has been very successful actually spreading this information through social media indirectly. And yet we're letting the communist Chinese government do it directly. So we're concerned about US still being owned by the Japanese, but we're not concerned about the greatest surveillance tool on our phones in the world, like being controlled by the communist Chinese government. Like I'm with you on that. And by that, we're treating Japan worse than China, but that's a separate conversation here.

Also, there's no reciprocity. The access that the Chinese have to American society through TikTok, you would say it would be one thing if we also had similar access to Chinese society through TikTok, you would say, it would be one thing, we also had similar access to Chinese society. Last I checked, we have zero access to Chinese society. My guess though, Joe, is despite everything you said, and that's why I was laughing before, I actually think that one way or another this is gonna go through.

Donald Trump likes TikTok. He has a friend who's a big investor in it. I think the fact that you have the Chinese sending their number two guy to the inauguration, he wants to, in some ways, invest in this relationship with China. And he also, as you know, likes to get involved in something, jump in and show that only he can make the deal. So my prediction is one way or another, whether it's under a separate name or something, we're going to find the United States is going to find a way to allow TikTok or the app formerly

known as TikTok to have access in the United States. And I think it highlights a larger thing owned by an American. No, I think so. The Chinese, the communist Chinese will still have control over our children's phones. And I think it shows a larger thing. This administration, potentially new administration is all over the place on China. You've got those who care That would be my guess. For children's phones. That would be my guess. Grow. And I think it shows a larger thing. This administration, potentially, the new administration is all over the place on China. You've got those who care about the Taiwan issues, the traditional geopolitics, and you've got those who are worried about the economic challenge coming from China. We've got this issue.

And there's no consensus whatsoever in the new administration about to take over about how to deal with China. OK. Coming up, as Joe just mentioned, did House Speaker Mike Johnson strip a Republican lawmaker of his chairmanship of the House Intel Committee because of a call from Mar-a-Lago? We'll dig into that straight ahead. All right, welcome back. Let's finish up our conversation really quickly on TikTok. You guys brought up a couple of great points.

A great point. Anand, talk about the difference between TikTok in China and TikTok in America. So you raise the prospect of something very nefarious, which is the Communist Chinese Party using the presence of these apps to surveil. Maybe that's happening, maybe it's not, we don't know, right? But sometimes the really dangerous thing is happening in the light of day. Exactly. And what we absolutely know is happening, I was looking at ABC News report here, is that TikTok for minors is really different in China and the US, partly because of regulation.

In China, it emphasizes educational content. There's a lot more like social pressure, these algorithms. The social pressure there is to like, do your math homework, right? There is a 40 minute, the Douyin is the name of the TikTok equivalent in China, a 40 minute daily limit for users under 14. So whether or not they're surveilling or doing anything else, what we know they are doing is using this powerful technology to fortify their kids.

Right. Right. And they're using it to distract and enf fortify their kids. And they're using it to distract and infeeble our kids. Richard? 100% and the fact that the polls showed that so many young people, that TikTok is now their principal news source. And the fact that you have this separation on content in order to be something that frightens people.

But that is why there ought to be a lot of pressure on the incoming administration, that if they can regulate this and preserve the growth of their young people, why would we make a deal one way or another without the same kind of calculation for ours? Where's the Christian right? Where are all these people that believe in morality

demanding that if they're doing this in China, the least you can do, Mr. Trump, is make sure it's done. They regulate their own app. We won't regulate their app. And he's saying he's gone from tick tock to tick and flipping over. Nobody's talking about that. Let's see what happens.

A threat to American supremacy through the kids and the next generation and the next generation. But I will have to find a new venue for my dance videos. I know. That's going to be challenging. You're going to have to work on that. I follow those. OK.

A ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas hangs in the balance. The ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in southern Lebanon is set to expire in less than 10 days. The deadline comes as Lebanon and the United States, who helped broker the deal, both welcome new presidents. Lebanon elected a new leader earlier this month, a move backed by the United States after being without a president for more than two years. Joining us now, contributing editor for the Financial Times, Kim Gaddis, also with us

at MSNBC correspondent and host of AMON, Amon Moaldine. Good to have you both with us this morning. Kim, I think we've already quoted Vladimir Lenin once this morning. I don't know that we can do it again, but I will say it seems that we've been through a few weeks in the Middle East where decades have in fact happened and nowhere more dramatically than Lebanon. Give us your take right now of what's happening in Lebanon, Syria, and of course with the peace deal that may be, or at least the ceasefire deal that may be going down in Israel.

It's been a few weeks, indeed, of incredible rapid historic changes, starting with the fall of Assad in Syria on December 8th, when I was last on the show. And since then, it's just been one thing after another. First, let's pause to recognize that the continued transition away from Assad in Syria has been fairly smooth so far. And I really hope that it continues to be so. And there's been a massive diplomatic blitz from the new interim leaders of Syria

traveling around the region, welcoming international leaders, and being embraced by countries like Saudi Arabia, Qatar and to some extent the UAE, which are also keen not to repeat the mistakes they made after Saddam Hussein was removed from power in 2003 and they stepped away from Iraq and allowed the void to be filled by Iran. They want to make sure this time that they own, well not own Syria, but that they are part of the conversation and in the space. And then in Lebanon, the removal, the departure of Assad

was such a relief for Syrians after 50 years of oppression and 10 years of terrible civil war. But Syria had a terrible role in Lebanon as well. It occupied this country for three decades until 2005. It assassinated scores of our leaders, intellectuals, journalists. And so to have this departure of Assad and this new fan from Syria come almost a few weeks after, barely 10 days after the end of the war between Hezbollah and Israel, just 10 days after that ceasefire, meant that the mood here over Christmas was

exuberant. And then we had the election of a president that most people in Lebanon really couldn't have dreamed of, somebody who is an army commander. Not everybody's a fan of having yet another army commander at the helm of the country, but someone with integrity who has navigated the last few years very, very adroitly, very, you know, very well. And then we've had a prime minister nominated, again, reformist, progressive, forward-thinking, top ICJ judge, International Court of Justice. A lot of people are saying, you know, the next stage of the situation here is Nirvana.

It's almost too good to be true. We're waiting for the saboteurs to see where the next problem might arise. I don't think that Hezbollah and Iran are just going to let it go this easily. And then, of course, you know, Joe, all of this is happening after a year of tremendous pain in the region. And so we cannot forget that it comes after thousands of dead in Gaza

and the agony of Israeli hostages who hopefully will be released on Sunday. So, Eamon, let's pick up right there, this idea that if this ceasefire holds, still uncertain, but if it holds and the process begins, hostages being released and the like, this will be the moment, as we mentioned earlier in the show, where finally the world will see what happened in Gaza.

That will come. The Israeli military had not allowed media into the territory to see what was happening there. Talk to us about what that moment will be like, particularly also for some of those Arab states who then might be tasked with helping to rebuild. Sure. I'll take the second part first. The idea of Arab countries coming in and being directly involved in the rebuilding of Gaza

is very unlikely without some kind of comprehensive agreement on the horizon. Something that says to these people, if you are going to invest billions of dollars, try to rebuild the infrastructure, try to help people get back on their feet and build livelihoods, that there is going to be something that guarantees that investment is not going to be lost. Let's remember, this is not the first war that has happened in which Gulf countries, European countries, even the United Nations has been asked to come in and try to rebuild some component of Gaza. So certainly they're going to be reluctant to do that if there is no framework, if there's nothing comprehensive that says this time around it's going to be

different and we see something on the horizon that could lead to statehood or something. And, Amon, isn't that really the grand deal, the Nobel Peace Prize deal, which is normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab states in exchange for them helping to rebuild Gaza and overseeing a two-state solution? It is, I mean, Richard can talk about this more, but it's the holy grail of peace deals, I think, that has eluded the world for the better part of 70 years. I mean, I think you've had successive American administrations, Arab governments, different.

There's also something that I think is fundamental to talk about here, which is what kind of peace do the Israelis and Arabs want? There is this kind of cold peace that has existed between Israel and Egypt for the better part of 40 years. It's on a government to government level. There's peace, great cooperation on security and intelligence, but there isn't that kind

of fundamental peace that I think Egyptians and Israelis deserve where you actually belong and feel part of the region. But then on the other hand, you have the Abraham Accords where you have Israel and the United Arab Emirates where they've been able to tout much more integrated cooperation and a lot more tourism and travel. A lot of economic. Exactly, a lot of economic cooperation. And so I think the Saudis are watching this and they're saying,

look, if you just want us to make a peace treaty that we sign that we're not at war with Israel, yeah, that can be done. But if you're not going to offer a dynamic change in the region that brings about a Palestinian state that fundamentally brings Israel and integrates it into the Gulf and integrated into the Arab world, then you're just going to be signing a piece of paper that's going to be a cold piece. And we're going to find ourselves in these all kinds of like non-state actor wars that we've seen over the last couple of years. The states have been pretty passive, but the non-state actors, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis,

now we'll see what happens in Syria, who pops and emerges there, ISIS, these are now going to be the more dynamic factors if we don't address the fundamental issues of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Katie Kay. Hey, Kim, it's Katie here. So, you've talked about all the things that have changed in the region recently, particularly in Lebanon, and, of course, now you have another change coming, which is a change of U.S. administration. The Trump administration has always been very confident about its ability to kind of bang

heads together, use American leverage in order to get things done in the Middle East. And they did get the Abraham cords at the end of President Trump's first term. Do you think the fact that Trump is coming into office, how is it going to change power dynamics in the region? And is it the same Middle East that was in play when he left office back in 2020? Katia, it's great to speak to you from Beirut. There's one big difference with the last time President Trump was in office,

which is that Iran is much weaker and its proxy allies across the region are also much weaker. Hamas and especially Hezbollah is down, perhaps not out, but very much down. And in Syria, a key element of the Iranian axis, President Bashar al-Assad is gone. So that's one big difference. And that goes to the core question of what does Trump want when it comes to Iran?

We've heard a lot of talk about going back to maximum pressure, maximum pressure without an end goal. What is your policy goal at the end of this is very important to define. I think I was listening to the earlier part of the conversation, I think we're giving President Trump elect still a little bit too much credit at this point, I think for making the hostage deal happen now. I think Benjamin Netanyahu was intent on not getting

to a hostage deal for as long as possible. I think, you know, there's been a lot of criticism of President Biden and rightly so that he did not put enough pressure. But I really think that Benjamin Netanyahu was not going to cede to any kind of pressure. And he can now say, you see, I was right. I was right. Look at what we have achieved. Iran is weakened. Hezbollah is pretty much destroyed. Hamas can barely stand. So I just want to say that.

But yes, President Trump is coming into office now wanting to bang heads and make deals. And the question that Benjamin Netanyahu is going to have to ask himself is, does he want to please President Trump or does he want to please his far-right coalition? And that is going to go to the crux of what President Trump can actually achieve. We'll be watching that. And Richard, we'll see how that plays out at the end, but the incoming Trump administration does believe there's going to be a deal between Israel and the Saudis. There's going to be continuation of the second Abraham Accords. And I guess the underlying question is what we were just talking about.

Is there any possibility for the grand deal, maybe not today, maybe not next year, but maybe a two, three, four-year plan where the Saudis, the Emiratis, Jordanians, Egyptians, other people come in, Sunni Arab nations come in, help rebuild Gaza, help reinvest in Gaza with the long-term prospects of a two-state solution. So think of it in two phases. I think initially, what the Saudis care most about, Joe, is getting a security assurance from the United States. Essentially, you get Iran, they want some help with their nuclear program, and they'll

give minimum lip service. And they'll normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a minimal Israeli statement about something with Palestinians. I think that can happen. I think that will happen. What you're asking is, can we go from there to sort of the big grail that's been out there for decades? I think in the short run, the best you can do is probably try to prevent things that

would make it even more difficult. Annexation of quote unquote Judea and Samaria, even more settlement expansion and so forth. That doesn't sound ambitious. That might be a lot. No, no, no. That's really ambitious. Let me ask you something. Can the Saudis strike a deal that the illegal settlements and the abuse of Palestinians on the West Bank come to an end, or is that

beyond the reach of any peace deal? I think what we've learned the last 15 months, getting normalization with Saudi Arabia as valuable as it is, is not that valuable for this Israel. This Israeli government is not willing to pay, quote unquote, that price to really take on the settlers. There's half a million settlers now living in the occupied territories. They're powerful in Israeli politics. Israeli demographics have moved the country to the right.

I think what we've learned that is welcome is getting the Saudis in the Abraham Accords tent. That's simply not as much of a carrot as we thought it would be. So we're talking about a different Middle East from the last time Donald Trump was there. And of course, we're looking at Israel, we're looking at Lebanon, we're looking at Syria. But why don't we just say, it sounds like what you're saying and other people are saying, this is a different Israel. This is not the Israel that we've known since 1948.

This is an Israel now that is run, especially on the West Bank, by extreme right-wing religious extremists. And they do not want a two-state solution. They don't want to deal with the Palestinians. And I guess you're saying a two-state solution is not possible. I'd say it's on life support. And Donald Trump would have to decide that he would devote an enormous amount of his calories and Marco Rubio And Mike waltz would have to say this is going to become a major strategic priority We are going to devote enormous time pay enormous potentially

Political price here at home and so forth and do this and so it would be a major major Calculation on their part and even then it would be a bit of a long shot. But that's what it would take. It's not dead, the two-state solution, but to get from where we are to there, enormous difficulty. Alex is telling me, and he's been telling me the past five minutes we have to go. I will say we need to continue this conversation later today because the idea that you can make peace without taking care of the Palestinian question.

That is a fool's errand. It's happened before. Let's pray it doesn't happen again. Richard Haas, thank you. Contributing editor at the Financial Times, Kim Gataz, thank you very much as well. Thank you, Kim. Kim's 2020 book entitled Black Wave Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the 40-year rivalry that unraveled culture, religion, and collective memory in the Middle East is

available now and then molding thank you as well will be watching a man on weekends at 07PM. Again right. I'm going to use that in the promo for the show. Absolutely. I like it. Thanks, Cher. Amen. Just the one name. Amen, Cher.

I like the title. I feel like Madonna. It's cool. One name. Madonna. Nia. All right.