Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/8/22

Episode Date: November 8, 2022

Tuesday is Election Day in America

Y'all ready to close this thing out? Do you realize our state's doing good because we've been saying no to Stacey Abrams? Are you ready to win this election? Are you ready to win the future for our children? Are you ready to push us right on over the finish line so we can do this for six more years? I'm not that politician. I can tell you that. I don't look like one, don't dress like one, don't talk like one. Because I'm that warrior for God that he prepared me for a moment like this. New Yorkers of all walks of life are uniting as New Yorkers to take back our streets, to take back our subways.

People have said enough. Today we stand united as one voice. And I feel the power of that voice ripple from here all the way across the state of New York. United behind our candidacy. And I could not be prouder to be your governor. We have a movement, guys. This is a movement. It's not a campaign. It's a movement of patriotic Arizonans who are sick of the crap, right? There are too many extreme positions in Washington, too much out there pulling us away from where the real answers lie. I will bring balance to Washington,

but John Fetterman, he'll bring more extreme. And every day I feel better and better. By January, I'll be even better. But, but, he'll, Dr. Oz will still be a fraud. We're gonna have factories and jobs in America again. We're gonna secure our border again. We'll put criminals in jail again. Prosecutors will prosecute again. Things will be affordable again. We'll save the greatest country in the history of the world. Regardless of who you are, the color of your skin, where you might live, how much money you might have,

your sexual orientation, sexual identity, or religion will have an opportunity to succeed. And that is just some of what we heard last night from the most watched candidates as they delivered their closing messages. Today is the day when voters decide the future of this country. At stake? For the next two years. Yeah. At stake, the balance of power in Washington and in states that could determine the outcome of future elections. The Biden agenda is also on the line. And as Democrats have been reminding us, democracy itself.

Here's the lay of the land. First, the House Democrats have a 220 to 212 seat advantage with three vacancies, two on the left and one on the right. Republicans need a net gain of five seats to take control of the lower chamber. That's the smallest number of seats the party out of power has needed to flip the House in 90 years. GOP redistricting has played a role in that. Now the Senate, as we all know, it's now a 50-50 split, meaning Republicans need to gain just one seat to take control of the upper chamber. We are watching the Senate races in nine battleground states with particular focus on Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.

And now to the 36 governors races, many in presidential battlegrounds. As we saw in 2020, these races matter for the certification of the electoral college results. Right now, Republicans hold 28 governorships, Democrats 22. More than 44 million Americans have already cast a ballot either by mail or in person, outpacing the 2018 midterms by more than five million votes. Polls in New York are open right now. Polls in Ohio open in a half hour and a slew of others open at the top of the next hour, including many battleground states. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Tuesday, November 8th, Election Day. Along with Joe, Willie and me, we have former chairman of the Republican National Committee, Michael Steele, is with us. Former chief of staff to the DCCC, Adrienne Elrod, she was senior aide to the Hillary Clinton and Biden presidential campaigns. CEO of the Messina Group, Jim Messina is back with us. He served as White House deputy

chief of staff to President Obama and ran his 2012 reelection campaign. And the co-founder of Axios, Mike Allen, is here on this election day. There is so much to talk about. We've got four hours. Thank God. I think we're going to need a bigger, bigger vote on this one, Willie. You know, Willie, this is, I mean, for me, this is turning into one of the most fascinating midterm elections I've ever, I've ever seen and participated in. I, because I got, this should be a massive Republican victory tonight.

Probably will be. You look at just history alone, the tide of history. I see no way that Democrats would hold on to the House. That said, the polls are breaking in all different ways. I saw a group of new polls last night with massive sample sizes, a bipartisan poll. And I mean, these Senate races in these swing states are breaking different ways. I spoke to people in Florida who were always right. They say expect a massive Republican win in Florida. Ron DeSantis is going to break every record in the book. I talked to Democrats in Pennsylvania. They were not under their bed shaking like they usually are. There was no bedwetting. There is no weeping. OK, they're feeling good about Fetterman.

They're, of course, feeling great about Shapiro. We may have an election where Republicans sweep Florida, Democrats sweep Pennsylvania, maybe in Wisconsin, a split. I mean, it's breaking all these different ways. And it's just kind of exciting going in the round and hearing all those people talking. And Fetterman, Fetterman was sounding great. He did. He sounded strong. And paraphrasing Winston Churchill, you know, I'm getting better and better. And as I get better, you know, I'll be getting better. Dr. Oz, he'll still be crazy or whatever. You know, it's like the Churchill. Yes, ma'am, I am drunk, but you're ugly in the morning.

I'll be sober, but you'll still be ugly. Terrible. It was horrible. How can you say that? But, you know, this whole thing about democracy is on the line and everything hinges on this one election. I do totally get that sentiment. But you really need to go race by race. And you look at, for instance, Carrie Lake.

I think that is someone who poses a grave threat to American democracy. I just I just say when you look at the fact she's an election denier, you look at her skill set. You look at the fact Republicans already talking about her being Trump's vice presidential pick. She seems willing to do anything, say anything. You know, I had a friend that was running in the primary. She called she she said he was on the side of pedophiles because he wouldn't put cameras in every classroom across the state of Arizona. This is a woman willing to do anything. So there's an example, yes, where I do believe this would be a grave risk to democracy in Arizona.

The races aren't where the stakes just aren't quite that high. And so you look at Georgia, you have two people that stood up to Donald Trump and said, no, we're not going to let you steal elections. There are other Republicans have done that across the country as well. Yeah, there are about 300 election deniers on the ballot today. So if those people win, it could change the way we run elections. It could change the way we respect the outcomes of elections. That's all very real. The question is, is that in the mind of a voter going to the

booth or is it eight percent inflation and gas and groceries and all the things we talk about this morning? Mika laid out very well the splits in the House and in the Senate. Republicans only need to pick up five in the House to control the Senate. Republicans only need to pick up five in the House to control the House. They only need to pick up one in the Senate. Historically, just for a little bit of perspective, since 1934, since FDR's first midterm, the out party has picked up 28 House seats and four Senate seats. So you put that historical trend together with a president who's polling the low to mid 40s and 8 percent inflation. It should be. It should be a massive Republican landslide. It should be huge.

And maybe it will be in the House. But the Democrats, as you say, they're looking at Pennsylvania. They're looking at Georgia. They're looking at they hope they hold on to New Hampshire. They better. That's one we'll be watching early. They hope they hope and they believe some of them that they will, in fact, be able by the skin of their teeth to hold on to the Senate. They're all and Jim Zena. They're all so tight. A lot of these Senate races, a lot of the close races in the swing districts, swing states are all so tight that, you know, you felt 2010 coming. I felt that we knew that was going to be a massive Republican year. Same thing with 94. I mean, you know, we knew that was going to be a big year. Man, there are so many cross currents this year. It is crazy. I mean, beware of the undertow and the riptides because you don't know where it's going to take take us tonight.

And all of this fear and loathing and all of these people saying, oh, this proves that so-and-so ran a bad campaign here. We still don't know. People are going to start voting, you know, in person in an hour. It's crazy. I mean, you look at this question is whether it's 2010, to your point of red wave, just slaughter everywhere. Right. Or there's 2018 where the Democrats take the Senate or the House, but Republicans pick up seats in the Senate. It feels like that to me. Yeah. We just have never seen this many Senate races sitting on the precipice. I mean, I was looking

at numbers last night, seven or eight Senate races that are within the margin of error. And can I just ask, would you be shocked if the Republican or the Democrat won Nevada, won Arizona, won Georgia, won Pennsylvania, won one New Hampshire, won even even Wisconsin? You know, Ron Johnson, North Carolina, been ahead. North Carolina, Ron Johnson's been ahead in a lot of polls. But man, I see I keep seeing these Barnes polls where he's well within the margin of error. We had six or seven races where if you told me tomorrow that any of those candidates won, I would not be surprised at all because it's it's all within the margin of error. It's really true. And these polls are mostly garbage, as you and I have discussed in the past. Right. Because we don't know who's already voted. Right. He's going to talk about this, but we've already had 44 million people vote.

Republicans are now in most states saying don't vote until Election Day. So you can't really figure out what's in the bag, what's not in the bag. Early numbers. Mike Allen was talking about this earlier. Early numbers are going to look talking about this earlier, early numbers are going to look like Republicans are having a big night. We all need to take a deep breath. And I want to look at the numbers in New Hampshire. If that race is, if the Democrats lose the Senate race in New Hampshire, they're screwed and it's going to be a horrible night. She holds on and they look good and it's not as close as people fear. Then you start to see a little momentum.

And then we all start looking at, can the Democrats win Pennsylvania? If they can, they can hold the Senate. And then we go out to the West. Everything gets decided in the West, as always. Right. It is election day. That means one thing. Steve Kornacki is at the big board, beginning what's going to be a long day, a long night, perhaps a long several days. Steve, good morning. Let's get you started here on Morning Joe. What are you looking at to start the day? Yeah, well, I mean, what you're talking about, I think the battle for the Senate, obviously kind of the feature story here, the 50-50 split. And I think we've talked about this a lot.

Republicans needing that net gain of one seat. There are four best possibilities here, Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and then kind of a late bloomer for them, New Hampshire. New Hampshire in and of itself, a really interesting story because Republicans tried and they kept missing nationally to recruit who they thought would be top tier candidates into this race. Ended up getting Don Bolduc as the nominee through a primary. Most Republicans nationally thought that was it for New Hampshire. Wouldn't have any chance there. But in the final sort of stretch of this race, there's all sorts of signs.

New Hampshire's become a top target for Republicans as well. So, again, they're trying to get a net gain of one. Those are their four best possibilities on the board in terms of flipping blue seats. And I think all of it just underscores the central importance to Pennsylvania, to the math of the Senate, because they're in Pennsylvania. That is Democrats best single pickup opportunity. It has been all year. Joe Biden obviously won the state back in 2020. Fetterman, very close, as you say, coming into today. But for months before the homestretch of this campaign, Fetterman had enjoyed some comfortable leads in the polls there. So you've got the possibility

of Democrats and I think the necessity for Democrats of flipping Pennsylvania. If they do flip Pennsylvania, it means they could absorb a loss in one of those blue states and they could still end up back at 50-50. And of course, and one of the other possibilities tonight, you know, is that let's say Democrats were to pick up Pennsylvania. Let's say Republicans were to use New Hampshire for the heck of it here. Republicans were to get a gain there. Everything else ends up kind of holding form, staying the same. You've also got the wild card of Georgia. Remember, you have the possibility of a runoff if no one gets to 50 percent in Georgia. And something like what I just showed you happens tonight. You'd end the night with 50 Republican seats, 49 Democratic seats and one uncalled race.

That one uncalled race would be Georgia. Georgia would go to a runoff. The runoff would be held on December 6th. And once again, just as was the case two years ago, we will be waiting for a month to find out who controls the U.S. Senate all based on a Georgia runoff. And by the way, if Adrian, if you had told Democrats a year ago, here's the deal. Inflation is going to be about like eight percent. Right. And Joe Biden's approval ratings are going to be somewhere between thirty nine and forty four. And historically, you should lose on average twenty five, thirty, probably forty seats and get wiped out in the Senate. If you told Democrats that you could have the computer who wears tennis shoes and khakis

on election morning to say, you know, we may have to wait until December to see who controls the Senate. That'd be. Do you know a Democrat in Washington, D.C. that wouldn't say, I'll take it? Yeah, yeah. It in Washington, D.C. that wouldn't say, I'll take it? Yeah, yeah. It is absolutely amazing because you just laid out sort of all the circumstances that we're dealing with. And of course, historically, the party in power does not always have a good midterm cycle. The fact that we could hold on to the Senate, that we are so neck and neck in some of these really close states that, you know, that some of the states that Trump won in 2016 and even in 2020,

it is a very good it's a very good situation for Democrats to be in. And look, I'm glad that we're all talking about the fact that we may not know a lot of these results tonight. You know, New Hampshire, for example, most people vote or vote the day of in New Hampshire. So I think we'll know New Hampshire. But Pennsylvania may take a couple of days. You know, Arizona may take a couple of days. We have to let every single vote count because it's so close. Arizona, because a couple of weeks, they count one vote. Go out and have a ham sandwich. Come back. Get another vote. Get a manicure. Go home and sleep. I've never seen Arizona and Nevada. Seriously. I don't know what happens in those offices after election day, but it's always taken forever for them to count votes. And especially when elections are this

close, it really, we have to have every single vote in to know where things stand. And sometimes it takes absentee ballots a while to come in. As Jim mentioned earlier, a lot of the states is going to look good for the Republicans early on because a lot of them vote on Election Day. Right. But early vote and absentees tend to be counted at when the polls close. Right. So over the course of the night into tomorrow, we will see, I think, the Democrats pick up more steam as those votes come in. And by the way, the Republicans, their efforts to steal the election in 2020, it was very calculated.

You remember we had Steve Bannon saying, oh, we're just going to declare victory at 10 or 11 o'clock at night. Well, in the months preceding that statement, there were people that were asking Republican legislatures in Michigan and Wisconsin and in Pennsylvania to count their votes the way Ron DeSantis is. Florida counts their votes. When you get the early votes, count them. That way, polls open at seven or eight. All of those are tallied up just like that. And, you know, by 10 o'clock, you know who won the election. Right. So when you hear Republicans at 10 o'clock or 11 o'clock going, all right, let's count. Let's just stop counting the votes I want. When you hear that, understand this is this is this is all very calculated. They're doing this for a reason because they understand

Republicans do well day of and it's the early votes. Right. So early votes where the Democrats catch up. But again, Mike Allen, it's all very calculated. They knew this was going to be the reality in 2020. And I just heard you talking on way too early with Jonathan O'Meara about how this is going to come down tonight. And I just I want everybody to listen to this, OK, because let's limit the fear and loathing, the weeping and the gnashing of teeth. Let's limit that tonight at eight, nine and ten o'clock at night, because it's going to come in hard for Republicans at first. And then we're going to see if Democrats have enough early votes to catch up and win. So explain how break this down for us. Yeah, Joe, that's exactly right. Now, the weeping and the gnashing of teeth may come in the morning, but Democratic having warnings yesterday by Democratic campaigns, campaign committees,

saying watch out for Republicans prematurely declaring victory. Look for a possible rerun of the red mirage from 2020. And, Joe, your voters will remember the red mirage of 2020, where Democrats warned exactly what you're talking about, that on election night, Republican votes may be heavier. By the time mail-in votes where Democrats are heavier, the result will change. And of course, we saw that. We saw President Biden becoming President Biden on Saturday. So Democrats yesterday warning of a red mirage, too. And that is that tonight, because of the mechanics of how votes are counted, Republicans may look like they're doing better than they're doing. So this is part of the new attention to the mechanics of vote counting in these briefings, some of them for

journalists, some of them off the record, some of them for donors and supporters, talking very granularly in a way that we never have about the timeline of vote counting, the mechanics of vote counting, with Democrats all using it to make the preemptive case that this may take a while. Mike, could you, could you, thank you so much for being with us, Mike. Hey, Mike Allen. Could you just give us, could you give us a happy election day just to send us on our way? He only does that on Fridays. No, he doesn't. Watch this.

Okay. I do it when Joe says it, and happy election day. Thank you for your coverage. I feel so much better now. Thank you, Mike Allen. I don't know. I really appreciate it. It's a happy Friday.

He takes requests. He takes requests. And they got him to meet him. Oh, he's gone. All right. So, Willie, the thing is, so this red mirage, it always happens. Think about 2018. You're watching 2018.

Most people that were watching, 9 o'clock, 10 o'clock, oh, my God, Republicans are going to hold on to the House. And then suddenly in Virginia, those states start moving Democratic. In California, over the next week, when they're counting votes, they start moving. There was actually a red mirage early in 2018. Democrats ended up what are they in a pit 44 seats or something in 2018, 40 seats in 2018. So, again, it always starts slow for Democrats. By the way, it may remain so. I'm not cheerleading anything. I'm just saying let's just not allow people who hate American democracy to hijack the narrative tonight at 9 p.m. And they're already doing it. Malicious actors are saying if there's more vote coming in, if it's not all there at nine o'clock,

10 o'clock, you know something is up. They're going back to 2020, which we know is garbage. We've we've already litigated all that. Michael Steele, you're always a good truth teller for us. That's some expectations for tonight for Democrats. They're hopeful some of the polls look good in some of these Senate races. What do you see out here? Well, I'll promise Joe and me could no bathroom references today. So thank you. Yeah, that was good. Look, a couple of things. One, this ain't 2010. This is nowhere near 2010. This is not 2018. This cycle is unlike any that we've seen in modern history for a number of reasons. One, you have dynamics at play, as Joe and Mika mentioned, people trying to undermine the cornerstone of our democracy, which is election. So that is much more active.

It's much more coordinated, and it's going to play itself out in a number of ways. The critical question for me in watching everything tonight is how are voters responding to this idea of a democracy? As our friend here, our polling at NBC is showing as of yesterday, the number one thing driving voters right now is not the economy, it's democracy. And imagine where we were six weeks ago when it was the reverse. Something's happened. Something's happened in that time where voters are looking at this election slightly differently than we may think. And it's not it's not pretending a wave of any type. It's just saying voters have begun to settle on the democracy question in a way they hadn't weeks in advance

of today. So I'm watching to see where that where that lands us. I get the parallels and everyone saying, you know, the wave and the history and all this. But that was conventional. That was conventional politics playing itself out. So, yeah, there were historic trend lines that mattered. We've blown so far past that at this point. Right. I don't think you give it the same level of weight. And you can't because when you look at some of these races, you see these other factors shaping the way voters are looking at them. The reason Carrie Lake is doing Carrie Lake is because she looks good. She sounds

good. That's a they're looking past what she's saying. Herschel Walker, you have these dynamics that voters are kind of weighing differently than they would have in other elections where they would have been written off because dynamics of Trump. That's right. You're too anti-democratic. You're too. I don't know what you are and I'm not voting for you. That's not necessarily what we're seeing. Steve Kornacki from this conversation, jump on, jump off on, on that if you could, but I'm also interested in early voting and any bellwether states and districts. Yeah. A couple of things to keep in mind. First of all, I, I think that the vote counting and the vote reporting is going to be different tonight than we saw in 2020 for a couple of reasons and a couple of key states here to keep in mind. Number one, mail voting. Well, it's going

to be much more prevalent in 2022 than it was in previous midterms. I don't think it's going to be as prevalent as it was in 2020. And it's what really slowed down some of those counts in places like Pennsylvania last time around. So I think there's going to be a little bit more efficiency at counting the votes. There may be a little bit less of a stark divide between the early and the same day vote. And there's also been some procedural changes. So the way I kind of see the night playing out is, first of all, as you mentioned, Florida is probably the most efficient big state at counting up its vote.

Within 30 minutes of poll closing time, every county reports out its combination of its early and its mail vote. The early vote in Florida actually isn't that Democratic. It's just the mail vote that is. That combo, though, it's about two-thirds of the vote in every county. It's going to be more Democratic than the same-day vote. So you'll see in the first 30 minutes in every big county in Florida, we're talking by a margin of about five points here or so. Democrats will put up their best numbers. Then the same day

they'll come in and really, you know, by 11 o'clock or so, we'll have Florida. Some key questions in Florida, you know, Republicans in Miami-Dade County, they saved what was a 30 point Clinton win down to single digits in 2020. Can DeSantis outright win Miami-Dade? 70 percent plus Hispanic County. There are a number of congressional seats just in Florida. It was an aggressive redraw of the map in that state by Governor Ron DeSantis and the Republicans. There are a number of House races that you could get a sense early on. Right there are Republicans on their way to getting those five seats. Another key change, I think, is north of Florida in Georgia. And under the new voting law that they have in Georgia, it's now the secretary of state's office has been encouraging counties

to pre tabulate. That's the key here to pre tabulate the early and the mail vote. They can do this as long as it's in a separate area at these facilities and to give them the capability, potentially, if they do this to release the combination of the mail and the early vote, just as they do in Florida by like 715 Eastern. So there's indications from counties in Georgia, especially big Democratic counties, that this is what they're going to be doing tonight. So we'll see. You hear a lot of plans from election officials beforehand. We'll see if they follow through on it. But there's the potential in Georgia for the Democrats actually to be putting up some very big early numbers in Georgia.

Then you get the same day voted and it becomes a question of can the Democrats chip away at that? The same is true in North Carolina and Ohio. These are your two 730 poll closing times. And again, you're going to get first the early mail, some combination thereof, which should be more Democratic friendly. Then you'll start getting in the same day vote, which should erode at it. What you're talking about in terms of the potential for Republicans to bank an early lead. Pennsylvania is a wild card. We definitely saw that in 2020. There are a few changes in Pennsylvania here in terms of I think there's questions here about whether the two big counties in the state, that's Allegheny and Philadelphia, whether they are going to pre-process, I should say process

on election day, a big batch of mail votes that they can release right away at the start of the night. If they do that this year, as opposed to 2020, the early count in Pennsylvania may look different, but yes, overall, they are still going to struggle to get all that mail vote counted out. They've incentivized the counties financially to stay open all night tonight, though, counting the ballots. And just about every county is taking the money. So we didn't have in Pennsylvania in 2020. A lot of them just turn the lights off at midnight on election night. And that's part of the reason for that long delay. It still could take till tomorrow, could take till Wednesday, Thursday in Pennsylvania. But it may be quicker in Pennsylvania. The two that I do think we are going to be waiting for a long time on Arizona and Nevada. And it's just, yeah, Arizona, what

you're going to get is 10 p.m. Eastern. You're going to get the bulk of all the vote that came in until a couple of days ago. No. And then it's very slow. Why don't they work in Arizona for the election? The very particular procedure is there's three things that happen in Arizona. They take all the mail ballots that came in as of a couple of days ago. The polls close at 9 Eastern. Right. Then they have this interesting tradition where for an hour.

They watch all eight Harry Potter movies. They do not release a single vote for an hour. So what it means is when we get to 10 Eastern, turn your eyes to Arizona because at like 10.05, suddenly about two thirds of all the vote in the state is reported out. And it is essentially all of the mail vote that came in until about two days ago. Then over the next couple hours in Arizona, they count up the vote that was cast same day. It's a smaller share, but that gets you up to the bulk of the vote in Arizona. And then we wait. And basically what you get is what they call the late early vote. It is the mail vote

that was dropped off Monday, Sunday, Monday, day of that sort of thing. And you're going to get like nightly updates. And that if it's a close race, we're talking inside of, you know, two, one point. That's where it takes a week in Arizona. 14 votes. That's brutal. Exactly. Thank you. Oh, my God. It's not Steve's fault. Steve, really quickly, really quickly, I was just looking at the, you know, the official newspaper of Morning Joe, the New York Post, and they're undecided right now on the New York governor's race. Vote to save our state. Thank you for the light time.

Which one are they talking about? We've got two pretty incredible races, I think, in states in places you wouldn't expect. One is New York State and the other is the L.A. mayor's race, where you got a Republican who switched late to being a Democrat. A lot of people are thinking is going to be the surprise winner there. And the question is, does Zeldin make all the dreams of the New York Post headline writers come true? Or does Hochul hold on? Well, here's the interesting thing in the Zeldin. Zeldin can be a hero to national Republicans, even if he loses the governor's race. And I say that because if he makes it competitive, let's say Zeldin falls three, four points short of Kathy Hochul. If

Zeldin is doing that, he is necessarily going to be running up massive margins on Long Island, massive margins upstate. And there are New York and California are like the motherlode of competitive congressional districts. And New York is filled are like the motherlode of competitive congressional districts. And New York is filled with congressional districts that Republicans are trying to flip from Democrats. And so if Zeldin is really competitive tonight, there's the first, there's the second district out in eastern Long Island that are already Republican. Republicans are eyeing the third and the fourth district to get closer to New York City. They voted for Biden by eight points, by 12 points. If Zeldin is having a monster night on Long Island, those two could be flippable for Republicans. Then Sean Patrick Maloney, the chair of the DCCC, he's nervous about a strong

Zeldin showing because his district would be the kind of district that would vote for Zeldin, even if Zeldin is falling just short statewide. But the 17th, the 18th, the 19th district Democratic seats in New York could all go just if Zeldin makes it a game in New York. So if he wins personally, obviously he's going to be happy and Republicans in New York are going to be thrilled. And the New York Post, it sounds like he'll be quite happy, too. But if it's only, say, a three or four point race and he falls short, he could still potentially on the strength of where he'd be getting the votes. That could be five Republican House seat gains from New York state. What do Republicans need to take the House? Five. Wow. That's amazing. All right. NBC, Steve Kornacki, you're the best. Thank you very much. Just absolutely amazing. I wanted I wanted to just before we go,

I wanted to talk about voters because people that will watch a show for four hours, they may be a little more into the weeds like us about politics than the actual people that go and vote. And I observed that I first time I ran, I went and was just watching people going into vote. I started shaking violently five minutes later and just drove off and made me so nervous you know uh exactly just a little bit but we talk about the economy it's the economy's stupid yeah well in 24 in 1994 when i won it wasn't the economy stupid the economy was doing pretty well it was a collection of things people thought bill clinton and the democrats had gone too far left right so you can say the same thing in 2010.

But so many times people go into a voting booth and they're not going in there thinking like, so interest rates are here, such and such. You have that's what you that's what makes this year so fascinating. You do have a 50 year right for women to make decisions about their own body taken away. That may not be showing up in the back of people's mind. Right. And you've all the that's the sort of thing where people are seeing this on TV. And maybe that's not the topic. It's in the back of their mind. It builds up. You have people going out there denying democracy, saying basically they're not going to accept Madisonian democracy if Madisonian democracy doesn't make them. That's

in the back of their mind. On the other side, you have voters that are looking at other issues other than the economy, you know, on all of the social issues where they believe progressives are too woke, have gone too far. And it's just this collection of thing. And I know I've surprised myself in the past when I've gone into a voting booth thinking I was going to vote a certain way. And then, you know, I'll just say it like in 2006, I was angry at Bush and the Republicans, I voted a straight Democratic ticket. In 2014, I was angry with Democrats in the state of Connecticut who were wrecking this state. I voted a straight Republican ticket. I didn't know that until I went in there. And sometimes I've walked out of a voting booth going, huh, that's interesting. OK. But that's how most Americans go in. And sometimes they're not even sure. That's why we can't predict based on the economy. It's an entire collection of thing. And at the end of the day, people go, OK, who's going to represent me the best?

Who's going to take care of my family the best? They vote that way and come out. And then you have this remarkable thing called democracy. And we get surprised more often than not, don't we? We really do. And so, you know, some numbers matter here to your point about who these voters are. And exactly right. They're not focused on this. The average swing voter thinks about politics four minutes a week, has two point six jobs, has kids worrying about what to do. You know, I think Michael had an interesting point about what these voters actually care about. Because I'm with you. I've always been an economic guy.

That's wins elections. When I ran President Obama's campaign, Bill Clinton would call me up at 2 o'clock in the morning once a month to say, Jimmy, on all elections, there's always an economic referendum. And that was true then. It's not true now. We really talked about the numbers historically. Democrats should get their butts kicked, but they're not because other issues are starting to really matter. The two times where Willie's numbers have been wrong since World War II,

1998 and 2002, the elections were nationalized. Democrats are hoping either democracy or abortion nationalizes these elections. And this democracy thing is really interesting, Michael, because the turnout looks massive for a midterm. And both parties are trying to figure out what that means. Who are these people? And I think, Joe, there are people that you're talking about who get in this ballot, get their ballot or walk in and say, I'm not sure what I'm going to do. But something in the back of my mind makes me think I'm going to do X. And it's why I think these polls are garbage. It's why I'm going to turn off my phone until about 11 o'clock Eastern.

So my mom doesn't blow it up for the first three hours. I'm losing her mind. And I just think that all of this is setting up to be a crazy, weird election. And by the way, and please, I don't say this to shock people, but you need to hear you never know why people are going to vote. It may be the Uvalde shooting. It may be abortion. It may be inflation. The swimmer at Penn, the trans swimmer at Penn, which Democrats don't talk about. But Republicans are littering mailboxes across America with fires on it. You never know what people are going to talk to.

It's it's it's going to it's definitely going to be crime in places, even though progressives have said, oh, but the data says, yeah. But you never know what is going to be. I do want to say one other thing, too, about nobody knowing anything. I'm so glad you brought up 1998. I remember 1998 driving around my district. I was campaigning and I heard Rush Limbaugh howling and he was laughing at the Democrats. These Democrats, they're already circling the wagons. They're already because the newspapers were filled with op eds saying we're going to lose badly in 98 because we've allowed this guy, Bill Clinton, to put a moral stain on our party. And we have turned over Congress. They're going

to wipe us out because all the polls were saying the Democrats were going to get wiped out and Republicans were gleeful and were saying this is what you deserve. Three days later, we ran Newt Gingrich out of town because because Democrats had a glorious night in 1998. You never know what's going to happen. You just never know, do you? With all these races, that's exactly right. We have so many close races and you just can't figure out who's coming, what the turnout's going to be, what they're motivated by. And Republicans have told their voters don't vote until Election Day. That's a risky strategy. By the way, a snowstorm coming into Nevada. See, that's terrifying. Like, can Nevada and Arizona just count the votes, Joe? I am so I think in Vegas, they just go out, they go to

a club, they do some partying, they gamble on the elections. And then like two days later, they call us. And my question is, Michael Steele, by the way, Michael. Yes, sir. We can now say it. There were some people that were begging you, begging you to run for governor in Maryland, begging you. And you told them, I can't do it. I think the party has moved too far right.

It's a shift. Too pro-Trump. And a candidate like me wouldn't win. So guess what? How big is Wes going to win? We love Wes. Wes is a great friend of ours. You're looking at a 30-point drubbing.

See? What a dumb decision. And Republicans did the same thing in Pennsylvania. And if Cox gets between 32 and 35, because Trump in the last election in 20 got 32% of the vote. All right, Jim Messina, thank you so much for being on this morning. We've got so much more to get to on this election day, including Pennsylvania Senate nominee Dr. Oz

making a play for bipartisanship that some critics are not buying. Plus, Arizona gubernatorial candidate Carrie Lake pushing more false claims of a rigged election. And Donald Trump focusing more on himself. Really? Than Ohio Senate race. Yeah. I was so shocked that he started thinking about announcing his run for president. He made a stop in Dayton and talked about Trump.

Also ahead this morning, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi makes a direct comparison between the brutal attack on her husband and January 6th. For good reason. We'll play for you her new remarks. Plus, one of our next guests joins us with what he calls a, quote, plea for sanity within the GOP. Former CIA officer Mark Polymeropoulos will be here to explain that. You're watching Morning Joe. We will be right back. I'm going to be making a very big announcement on Tuesday, November 15, at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida. We want nothing to detract from the importance of tomorrow. You understand that, J.D.? That's in-house music. We didn't add that music.

But that detracts, does it not? What is that? That's so, that is so schlocky. He can't help it. He's schlocky. It's like eighth grade student government. That's what schlocky. He can't help it. He's schlocky. It's like eighth grade, like student government. That's what schlocks do. Hey, I'm going to play some music and it's going to make me sound bigger.

I mean, what is that? Is that QAnon music? It's a big announcement. Some have said it's meant to replicate that music. That was President Trump during a final campaign stop in Dayton, Ohio, for Republican Senate candidate J.D. Was it? OK.

Who Donald Trump has humiliated time and time again and reminded the voters that J.D. came and begged me for support. He begged me. He said, forgive the language. He said he's kissed my ass over and over again. That's Trump's language. Come on, boy. So, yeah, that sounds like somebody you want fighting for. He has a big announcement, I think.

But you know what it is, Nick? I think part of this announcement is Governor DeSantis in Florida is going to have a big night tonight. That's what by all. Thanks, DeSantis. By all numbers. We'll let the voters decide. But it looks like he's going to have a he is the rising star in the party without question. Yeah.

And Donald Trump sees that on his flank. He did that. I would say he's not the rising star in the party without question. Yeah. And Donald Trump sees that on his flank. He did that ad. Somebody did an ad for him. I would say he's not the rising star in the party. He is the star in the party. Well, and you know. He is.

He is. He's eclipsed Trump in a way that has Trump right now sitting on that golden toilet, banging his head up against the wall. You said you weren't going to do that. He always goes back to the bathroom. I don't know why. But you know. The toilet talk.

The thing is, though, he, so it's so funny. I get off the phone with my source in Florida, who the guy is maddeningly accurate. Okay. And he has been for 20 years. He said it's going to be a historic win by DeSantis. He could get close to 20, 20 points. He could win by 20 points. The last record is like 12.8. He's going to win Hispanics statewide. He's going to win

Miami-Dade County. It is going to be one of the most historic wins, not just in Florida, but for any governor. He's raised more money than any governor. So I hear all this. I'm like, well, that's interesting. I hang up the phone and I get about 12 phone calls. Hey, what if you're Trump? I hear Trump's running. Everybody around him said he's there.

They're trying to talk him out of running. But Trump may be running. And I just started laughing because it's so obvious. He wants to step on Ron DeSantis' headline. Sam's got a massive headline, right? And Trump, he's going to be in Ron's shadow. And he was even angry when Ron, you know, had that ad a couple days ago. Sort of like religious.

I am Jesus, and I created Ron DeSantis on the eighth day. It was it was so awful. It was so bushling. It was so offensive. It was so un-Christlike. And yet it made Donald Trump so angry. That's why he started calling him Ron DeSanctimonious. Not his best work there. I think we can

agree in terms of nicknames. But he did give him a nickname, which is the first step toward him going after him. I have to admit, it is a little bit clever. Ron DeSanctimonious? It got a chuckle out of me. Yeah, I thought it was. But there's no doubt.

Donald Trump is not used to being in anybody's shadow. Jonathan O'Meara's here. Jonathan O'Meara's here. But after tonight, he's going to be in Ron DeSantis' shadow, certainly after these numbers come in. And by the way, Republicans are going to win, I'm told, veto-proof majorities in the House.

And by the way, if you're Democrats, like setting your hair on fire, Democrats might have a good night in Pennsylvania. So just take a deep breath, take some Maylocks, call me in the morning. But but yeah, it's Trump is going to have to deal with DeSantis having a massive historic night. Yeah, people around Trump have told me for a while now he is singularly focused on DeSantis, feels that DeSantis has been ungrateful because it was Trump's endorsement that got him over the finish line when he got elected the first time. He's upset that DeSantis, feels that DeSantis has been ungrateful because it was Trump's endorsement that got him over the finish line when he got elected the first time. He's upset that DeSantis, unlike some other Republicans, won't say he'll bow out if Trump does indeed run for president. And Trump has been angry and doesn't like his stage being stepped on, particularly now that

he is also a Florida resident like DeSantis. So aides have had to, he's been threatened to declare his candidacy. Well, he thought about doing it over the summer at the height of the Mar-a-Lago search and that aftermath, but he wanted to do it now. He wanted to become the story again in the Republican party. He wanted to eclipse DeSantis and others, and he wanted to be able to take credit if the Republicans have a really good night tonight. So he almost did so at his Pennsylvania rally the other day. Yesterday, Trump aides called a bunch of reporters saying, hey, you've got to watch Ohio tonight. It's going to happen tonight. It's going to happen tonight. Of course, it didn't. Other Republicans talked Trump out of

it saying, look, just wait a little bit. Wait a week. Don't step on our night. Did McCarthy talk him out of it? I don't know if McCarthy did, but those close to McCarthy did. I don't know if McCarthy himself called him, but there was leadership on the Hill that said, hold off, don't do it tonight, with the thinking being, what could be the number one motivator for Democrats to turn out today? Donald Trump declaring his candidacy for president that got him to hold off a week. So also at that Ohio campaign rally last night, former President Trump mentioned Nancy Pelosi for the second day in a row. As a reminder, here's what he said on Sunday while speaking in Miami.

This was just a group of people where crazy Nancy Pelosi, by the way, how's she doing lately? How's she doing? And then last night, the former president was talking about, again, we talked about yesterday. It's just ugly, horrific. And it's hard for you to imagine any of my friends, friends or family members actually supporting that guy. I don't understand. I understand Christians that would that would have a guy, an 82 year old man getting his brain bashed. And Donald Trump making light of that and going, oh, how's she doing? It's a threat. It's a mob threat.

So how's your aunt doing? How's your It's a threat. It's a mob threat. So how's your aunt doing? How's your aunt? Come on. It's really, it's... So the former president was... It's a low point. ...talking about the murder conviction... Until last night, yeah.

...of an MS-13 gang member when he brought up Pelosi again. This was an animal. Nancy Pelosi said, please don't call them animals. They're human beings. I said, no, they're animals. Of course, I think she's an animal, too. You want to know? They'll say, oh, what a horrible thing he said about Nancy. She impeached me twice for nothing.

Nothing. They'll say, oh, these people, the fakers back there, they'll say, what a horrible thing. He called Nancy Pelosi an animal. Yeah, yeah, it is. Maybe, Don, it is horrible because there have been studies for years since I'll say it since the fall of Hitler, since the fall of Nazi Germany, that talks about how Nazis dehumanized Jews by calling them animals. And by doing that, let me get the exact language here. It enabled fascists to morally disengage from those they viewed as political enemies, thereby justifying acts of violence. Look it up. There's been study after study after study. So Donald Trump jokes about an 82-year-old man getting brutally assaulted, his skull cracked. The crowds cheer. The next night, he calls Nancy Pelosi an animal. The crowd cheers again. People, you know, I know.

I know. Talking about Donald Trump being a fascist makes some people in polite society uncomfortable. You just look at, you know, the one thing that held me back from it, Willie, before January the 6th was the use of violence. Yeah. Right. And he used violent imagery, but he never crossed the lineleeful that somebody that follows him, that that wrote in his manifestos all about stolen elections, saying people in the media that deny there were stolen elections should be taken out in the street and shot. fact. He's openly celebrating it. And now he's again, he's using another Nazi tactic, calling his his opponent animal. And we have a horrific case study in where that leads on January 6th. We have to point out while almost exactly while the former president was calling Nancy Pelosi an animal, she was doing her first interview on CNN. Take politics out of it. Anyone with an ounce of humanity, a soul, anybody who was raised well, had to be moved by a woman talking about her husband of almost 60 years, an 82 year old man, what that was like for her to have a knock on her door at

five 30 in the morning in Washington saying your husband has just been beaten with a hammer by someone who was saying, where's Nancy? Let's watch a little of Nancy Pelosi last night on CNN. For me, this is really the hard part because Paul was not the target and he's the one who's paying the price. I mean, we all are, but he's the one who's really paying the price. But it really is really sad because it is a flame that was fueled by misinformation and all the rest of that, which is most unfortunate. It has no place in our democracy. President Biden drew a line between what happened on January 6th and the attack on your husband. The president said, I quote, the assailant entered the home asking,

where's Nancy, where's Nancy? Those were the very same words used by the mob when they stormed the United States Capitol on January 6th. That's right. Do you draw that same line? Absolutely. There's no question. It's the same thing.

Copycatter, whatever it happens to be, inflamed by the same misrepresentation. But the fact is, right now, it's time for healing. We want the country to heal. This is not a path that we can continue on. I was sleeping in Washington, D.C. I had just gotten in the night before from San Francisco. And the... I hear the doorbell ring and think, it's five-something. I look up, I see it's five.

They must be the wrong apartment. It rings again, and then bang, bang, bang, bang, bang on the door. So I run to the door, and I'm very scared. I see the Capitol Police, and they say, we have to come in to talk to you. And I'm thinking, my children, my grandchildren. I never thought it would be Paul because, you know, I knew he wouldn't be out and about, shall we say. And so they came in at that time. We didn't even know where he was or what his condition was. We just knew there was an assault on him in our home. It's worth watching the entire thing again. Take politics out of it. Disagree with her on policy.

Maybe you don't even like her personally, but she's a human being whose husband was nearly murdered with a hammer inside their home. And then to go out and joke about that and laugh but there has to be a line or we don't have a society there has to be a line at violence and she talked about healing but how can there be healing when you only have mitch mcconnell and one or two other republicans coming out condemning this without attaching a joke or without attaching a campaign punchline. Kerry Lake's just out and out joking about it. Donald Trump's being thuggish about it.

I mean, how can there be healing? And she gets this news. She gets on a plane. And by was first of all, it's the first lie that they were spreading around was that it was he was he was with a prostitute. Right. And then the next lie they spread was he was with a male prostitute. And then the next slide, I mean, there were about 10 lies. And they actually put it on Twitter. Put it on Twitter. And that's what, so Nancy Pelosi then has to deal with it. How can there be healing when one side is gleefully celebrating this? And behaving in an evil way. And still, you listen to what she said about Steve Scalise.

I haven't seen it. Has Steve Scalise come out and said that about Paul Pelosi. No, in fact, when when Steve Scalise was shot, there was unanimity among Democrats and Republicans. The leadership from both parties stood together to condemn it. Nancy Pelosi's voice was as strong as any other voice condemning it. There was no partisan rift. She didn't look at it through that lens. And here we are today on the heels of the attack on her husband with Twitter, the former president, Elon Musk, all piling on. And the thing that strikes me more than the childish behavior, the anti-democratic behavior, the unchristian behavior of our leaders, as you well know, as an elected official,

I know as an elected official, we are an extension of the people we represent in so many ways. And so when the president stands up and says that, that moment that we had with John McCain, with the audience member, where he rebuked him in the moment. No, those are gone. Those moments are gone. Long gone. Where do we go now? We're electing these people. We're him in the moment. No, those are gone. Those moments are gone. Long gone. Where do we go now? We're electing. We're electing these people. We're standing in the audience. Hey, great. Thank you. Where do we go next? Willie, do you have something on Scalise? Yeah. Steve Scalise said that same day. This is a statement he put out. I'm disgusted to hear about the horrific assault on Speaker Pelosi's husband, Paul. Grateful for law enforcement's actions to respond. Let's be clear.

Violence has no place in this country. I am praying for Paul Pelosi's full recovery. That's fantastic. That's good. On a day of. Fantastic. Also, you could hear, to Michael's point, you could hear the shock, if you watch that full interview, in Nancy Pelosi's voice, that even by today's standards, the jokes,

she said, gosh, I didn't know that we were going to go that far effectively. I didn't know getting bashed in the head with a hammer inside your own home would be the source of jokes to somehow get at me. I think even she was shocked by what happened. So people have been lying about Nancy Pelosi and have been spreading, spreading just the most vile attacks against Nancy Pelosi for so long that she's been turned again. She's been you look at what I just said about how Nazis turn people into they dehumanize them and they dehumanize this woman who actually is a woman of great faith. And if you don't like that, that tough, I really want to say another word. I'll just say tough luck because she is anybody that's talked to for more than five minutes. And if you don't like that, tough, I really want to say another word.

I'll just say tough luck because she is anybody that's talked to for more than five minutes. She is a Catholic of deep faith and a kind woman. You may not like it, may not like politics. We're supposed to be a nation where Jefferson and Hamilton can hate each other's politics. Right. But she's been dehumanized to such a point that I know you. I know you people. I know I won't say your names, of course, but I know you've dehumanized Nancy Pelosi. You're a good person. You live in a good neighborhood. You've got a good family.

You go to a good church. But you've dehumanized Nancy Pelosi so much that you can't even feel sympathy. You can't even relate to her. Having an 82 year old husband who was beaten up, bashed in the brains, had to be rushed to emergency surgery in the middle of the night. And you have allowed politics to dehumanize her so much that you don't feel any emotion for that. And I just ask that you, I ask it however you got to that point. If you're a Christian, just, you know, I wish you'd pray about that today. If you're not, that's fine. I hope you can meditate on it.

I hope you can think about it. Because that's a real sickness. And that's your sickness. Nancy Pelosi's not the one who's sick. You're the one who's sick. If you don't feel pain for her and her family.