Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/8/23

Episode Date: November 8, 2023

Election results point to major GOP liability on abortion heading into 2024

A big thank you to President Donald J. Trump for his support and his endorsement of this campaign. Let me just say, let me just say the Trump culture of winning is alive and well in Kentucky. Well, that didn't turn out exactly how I wanted it to. I promised the governor I'd be brief. So I'll be brief tonight and say thank you all. Trump back candidates pick up where they left off in 2022 with Republican Daniel Cameron losing the governor's race in the deep red state of Kentucky. So you can add to your list. You want to update your list? So, Willie, I wrote this down. He's got this list.

I've been working on it. We've never heard it before. Do you mind if I can copy off your paper? I'm going to write mine, too. Oh, God. Come on. The Trump culture of winning. Are you ready?

Mm-hmm. Now, after last night's results, Trump and his Republican Party have lost the elections in 2017, in 2018, in 2019. Hold on. Let's see. Does it end there? No, no. They lost also in 2020. They lost in 2021. There has to be a win for republicans sometime soon because they keep going back to donald trump well so maybe they maybe they they won in 2020 no no no trump republicans lost in 2022 and they lost in 2023 and they don't really. The crazy thing is you look at these primary voters. They don't really care. It's like Donald Trump is the political heroine of losing.

Like, do you just you just take a shot in 2016 and you just lie back and you're just smiling while your party loses in 2017, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22 and 23. And you're coming back for more in 24. Yeah. Donald Trump, I would add, lost the popular vote in 2016, of course, when the Electoral College. But that's also true. Yeah. That Daniel Cameron, the Republican, a rising star in the Republican Party, was backed by

Donald Trump in the state of Kentucky, ran a tough race and lost by five points. The Democrat, the governor, Andy Beshear, won very, very impressively last night. Remember last time around, he won by four tenths of a point. Last night, Governor Beshear, the Democrat in the state, Donald Trump won by 26 points. Wow. Trump won by 26 points, winning handily by five points. So this was Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell's candidate here. A big loss for them there. And the issue I know we're going to talk about this morning of abortion, abortion playing in this race, playing in Ohio, of course, and that ballot initiative playing in Virginia, all across the country. Republicans, again, falling down on this issue that they so wanted,

they so craved overturning Roe versus Wade. They got it 18 months ago and they continue to pay for it politically. Boy, they get they get pounded. It's like, you know, I've said for years that that one of one of my favorite political sayings, I heard the late Senator Paul Simon from Illinois say it in politics. Sometimes when you win, you lose. And sometimes when you lose, you win. There's never been a greater example of that than when the United States Supreme Court in a lot of, I think, sleazy political maneuvers, packed the court and has a court that is deeply, deeply conservative and unrepresentative of the rest of the country. And they overturned a 50 year precedent that 73 percent of Americans were against being overturned. And the political ramifications just keep coming, whether it's in Kansas, whether it's in Kentucky, whether it's in Wisconsin, whether it's like I mean, you name it everywhere.

Abortion, the rights of women to make health care choices, keep winning in state after state, after state, after state and election, after election, after election. And at this point, you would really think Republicans would get it, but they don't. I'll tell you another thing. It's a real footnote from last night, but election denying a loser. And in fact, you know, Jonathan Lemire, if you go into Kentucky, where I will say again, a Democrat, despite the New York Times, Sienna polls, a Democrat won the state of Kentucky. But the Republican that did the best in the state of Kentucky was the secretary of state candidate who strongly and vocally took aim at election deniers and pounded away at them and has has

never once allowed any election denying in his campaign. And he won big in Kentucky last night. It's just like Georgia, where, you know, you have Georgia Republicans who crushed Donald Trump's hand selected candidates in 22. And they did it again by being strong against election denying. Yeah, we saw this in last year's midterms, too. The most high profile election deniers all lost, whether they were running for governor or senator. Yes, there's a bunch still in the House of Representatives. We know that. But an election denialism is a losing issue for Republicans writ large. So as just discussed, abortion, abortion rights wins again. Women want the right to health care, you know, to make their

own decisions for them. We saw that in Ohio with a huge win there in a state that has trended red. We saw it play a big role in Virginia, which has really potentially upended Governor Glenn Youngkin's political future, at least the chatter around him as a rising star. He took a big loss yesterday. Up and down the ballot, this was wins for abortion rights. And also, let's be clear, a win for Democrats. And as so many were blowing up my phone all night last night, so pleased that these results come at any time, particularly on the heels of those New York Times, Siena College polls over the weekend that look so worrisome for President Biden,

showing that, again, polls say what they say, but Democrats in the age of Trump, they win elections year after year, special election, off-year election, midterm election, presidential election. Democrats win elections. And look, a lot of work has to be done. Democrats acknowledged to me before next year that race is going to be very, very, very tight. But this last night previewed a little bit of the driving forces that are going to shape that campaign to Democrats were running up, lining up to run and challenge Joe Biden before the 2022 midterm because they were sure the red wave was going to be so terrible. They were lining up. They were calling around. They were getting their finances in order. And then, boom, once again, Joe Biden's underestimated 2023. Boom. The same thing happens again. You can go back to the 2020

elections. We say it all the time after Iowa. Biden's too old. Biden's out after New Hampshire. Biden's too old. Biden's out after Nevada. Biden's too old. Biden's out. Then he comes into South Carolina. He picks up an endorsement and he crushes the rest of the field. And he's president of the United States, despite the fact that Donald Trump and all of his allies said he's too old. He speaks campaigning in his basement. He's too old. Boom. He wins again. It just keeps happening. I mean, it's crazy. You know, you know, Katty, sometimes we try to make politics a lot harder than than they are. And I had a friend who's an immigrant to the United States called me up and he's still kind of trying to figure out American politics. And he calls me last night and he says he says, I need to understand something. This abortion thing. I go, yeah, what? He goes, well, if somebody's against abortion, don't have an abortion.

I go, yeah. He goes, don't Republicans understand? That's why they're losing. If they don't want to have an abortion, don't have an abortion. But don't tell everybody else not to have abortions. Isn't that the way it should be? And I just sat there and said, well, I think Americans think so. And again, they do. And by the way, it's not like left wingers. These are Republicans. These are independents. These are moderates. This the overturning of Roe. It's really it's got to be, I think, the most devastating single event for the Republican Party in. Well, God, since Watergate. Yeah.

I mean, it's not like Roe forced people to have abortions. And it's men, too, by the way. The returns last night from Ohio suggested that 54 percent of men also voted in enshrining abortion rights in Ohio's constitution. So it's not just women. This is I keep hearing, especially from Democrats, that women are really furious. I think this is an issue that affects all couples. It affects all families. Husbands know what their wives go through. And the number of abortions, by the way, in America has not fallen precipitously since Roe v. Wade was overturned anyway. So this is something people need. It's a health care issue. And you saw it in the results last night. I mean, you were talking to a friend of yours who is an immigrant.

I was texting with somebody from the Trump campaign last night who was saying, well, you know, Donald Trump is going to position himself as the moderate candidate on abortion. He's going to say that he's in favor of a 15 week ban with, you know, restrictions later with exceptions later on. But actually, that didn't work out so well for Glenn Youngkin. I mean, that was what exactly what he was proposing in Virginia. He was proposing a 15 week ban with exceptions for rape, incest and the life of the mother. And Virginians pretty clearly in in eye poppingly expensive races throughout the state

came down and said, no, they wanted to enshrine abortion rights in the state, in the Commonwealth and keep because and it would be critical, right, because there's no other southern states with abortion rights. So it was really critical for the Virginians in that respect. Look at this. You look how important is abortion in your vote in the state legislature. Sixty percent very important. Twenty percent fairly important. And only 19 percent not too important at all.

Eighty percent of Virginians said it was important. And it's it's you know, what's so interesting. And, Katie, I'm so glad you brought up Yonkin, who really just got crushed last night. Just absolute worst case scenario for Glenn Yonkin. They they were trying to take the Senate. The Republicans, Yonkin was doing everything he could. Ended up not only did they get battered in the Senate. I mean, they lost the House, which nobody I mean, nobody was saying they lost the House. But, you know, Willie, the whole 15 week with exceptions

approach to abortion that would have worked when Roe was still law of the land, because I saw the polls, the plurality of Americans wanted that. So many Americans, since they've been seeing these bans, have been pushed now that they want to go back to Roe. They want to go back to viability. And and and so what worked before Roe got overturned doesn't work now. I mean, that's that's that's pretty critical to understand. That's one thing. The other thing that I was trying to remember, but I just can't now was that I'm going to go to you and I'll remember halfway through your sentence. I'm going to anticipate your thought because I've known you for so long,

which is I think on this issue of abortion, we saw such a scope, which so we're talking about 15 weeks in Virginia. Voters reject that idea, as you just said. And then look at the state of Kentucky, where Daniel Cameron, the attorney general, had backed for a long time until just recently a law that does not provide exceptions for rape or incest. And remember, there was that incredibly moving ad from the Bashir campaign of a very young woman, a girl, effectively, who had been raped by her stepfather. Devastating. Really? Really? You're going to prevent me? I have to carry that baby?

Actually, we have that ad. Let's take a look. This may have been decisive last night. I was raped by my stepfather after years of sexual abuse. I was 12. Anyone who believes there should be no exceptions for rape and incest could never understand what it's like to stand in my shoes. This is to you, Daniel Cameron. To tell a 12-year-old girl she must have the baby of her stepfather who raped her is unthinkable. I'm speaking out because women and girls need to have options. Daniel Cameron would give us none. So that was a young woman named Hadley who put out that ad.

Governor Beshear last night thanked her for her courage for coming forward to make that ad. And Daniel Cameron was totally thrown off by this. And my heart goes out to that young woman. My gosh, that's terrible. But here's the policy. No exceptions for rape or incest. Now, he did more recently say, well, I think we should maybe look at that as he saw the issue getting away from him. But again, Andy Beshear, Democrat, Trump state plus 26, won by five points last night. There you go. Well, and you know, that's that's what happened in Ohio. A 10 year old girl has to flee the state after getting raped by an illegal immigrant. She has to flee the state because it's different in Ohio now. It's different to last night. Right. It's different in Ohio, Kentucky.

The big stories of the morning. You look, though, looking at that, Willie, refresh my recollection a bit on what I was going to say. And Katty had said that Glenn Youngkin was trying to go with this sort of approach, reasoned approach. And Katty talked to a Trump person who said, oh, he's going to be moderate on abortion. And you can see him trying to do that, right? Here's the only problem. Got clip after clip after clip of Donald Trump bragging I was the one that killed Roe v. Wade. I killed Roe v. Wade. I put the judges in that took away the right for abortion. I destroyed Roe v. Wade. And it's all over the place. And so Donald Trump should expect to see all of these victims of rape, all of these victims, these women who were bleeding out because they couldn't get treatment because of Donald Trump, literally, and because of Leonard Leo and because of Leonard Leo Supreme

Court, because of the radicals on the Supreme Court, he can expect to see those girls, those girls who had to flee the state when they were raped by an illegal immigrant, those girls who had to flee the state because they were raped by a member of their own family. Women who were told they need to bleed out in a parking lot rather than get treatment. Women told that the doctors were afraid to even provide life-saving care to them because they might get arrested because of Donald Trump, because of Leonard Leo, because of Leonard Leo's radical Supreme Court. All of those young women whose lives have been made a living and breathing hell because of Donald Trump and that list of people Donald Trump can expect and he should expect and he deserves to expect to hear

that throughout 2024 along with a clip that said, yeah, I was the one who killed Roe v. Wade. He's the one who made their lives a living and breathing hell. He's the one who made women bleed out outside of operating rooms where they could have been saved. Because, well, Donald Trump and Leonard Leo. Who is Leonard Leo is the guy that's got one point four billion dollars now federal trying trying to to to rig every federal judiciary selection. He's already done to the U.S. Supreme Court. And you sit back and you wonder, why in the world? Why in the world do we have 10 year old girls who were raped by illegal immigrants having to flee the state, having to run for their lives to get an abortion. Why do we? Because of the Supreme Court, because of what happened,

because the buying of the United States Supreme Court that Donald Trump did. Donald Trump meekly and blindly followed along. And now, Willie, he's bragging, I'm the one that killed Roe v. Wade. Lots of luck with that, Donald. It's going to be a long year. You better believe that's going to be in just about every ad. OK, now let's dig into some of these numbers we've been talking about. Let's go to the big board, NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki, I think is still there from last night.

Steve, we're grateful for your service. What are you looking at first? Yeah, just taking you through some of the states you've been talking about. You look at Kentucky. This is, you know, there are still some votes to come in, but it's going to be about a five point victory for Beshear. I think one way of looking at this is in a presidential election, look in 2020. This is what the red blue map in Kentucky looked like. There were exactly of 120 counties in Kentucky. There were two that went Democratic where the two big cities are Louisville and Lexington. And as you said, a 26 point Trump victory. And again, you take a look at what happened last night.

You see a lot more blue on this map. Actually, 26 of the 120 counties in the state went to Andy Beshear. His number in 2019, when he barely won, was 23. So he added three new counties to his tally. He kept what he had before. And I think what's most interesting is, first of all, where did this victory come from for him? Well, he drove up support even higher in these core Democratic areas. Take a look, Fayette County, this is where Lexington is, University of Kentucky, and he's going to win this thing by about 44, 45 points, about 44 points over Daniel Cameron. Beshear last time around got 66 percent here, and that was a big number.

He grew it in the second largest county in the state. Similarly, Jefferson County, where Louisville is, he got 67% last time. Looks like he's squeezing more votes out this time than last time. So these are the big population centers, Democratic-producing counties, and Beshear just squeezed a lot more out of them. But what I think is even more remarkable,

and this was a story four years ago for him, and it was definitely a story last night, is you kind of look at this part, this eastern part of the state, which is traditionally coal country. Now, you can go back a generation, definitely two generations, and you find Democrats here. They tend to be more conservative Democrats, working class Democrats, and they have had a massive, massive shift in this part of the state in presidential elections, federal elections toward the Republicans. See this little sea of blue here in coal country? Let's take a

look. All won by Beshear. Take a look at how some of these counties voted in the 2020 presidential election that Beshear won last night. Trump got nearly 80 percent of the vote here in Letcher County. In Nott County, 77 percent of the vote for Donald Trump, 75 percent of the vote. These are counties that Andy Beshear was able to win last night. So his success, not just in core Democratic areas, but in reaching areas that Democrats have kind of concluded in Kentucky a few years ago, were a loss to them, certainly at the federal level. That is a key part of it. Sorry to interrupt. How do you explain that? How do you explain a flip where Donald Trump's winning 80 percent of the vote and then Bashir wins those counties a couple of years later? Yeah, I mean, some of this stuff is just

it's kind of crazy. Take a look here. Floyd County, I'll give you an example. Bashir is going to win this thing by 14 points. This part of Kentucky and there are regions of the country that are like this, particularly in this neck of the woods, has been on a wild political journey over the last generation. John Kerry, 2004, against George W. Bush, carried this county by 26 points and Donald Trump won it by 50. So a 74 point swing in 16 years in this county. Did you say that's coal country? Traditionally, that's the eastern coal country of Kentucky. So so you're talking basically about West Virginia. I mean, West Virginia, people don't don't remember now, but West Virginia was a Democratic state.

And then turn of the century, our century, it started to shift. And and Donald Trump's best state was in West Virginia. I just I am curious, what can Andy Beshear teach other Democrats about winning in coal country? Yeah, I mean, I would say, honestly, a huge part of it, because this was a story in 2019 as well. He wouldn't have won the governorship if he hadn't won coal country. Now, he had two things going for him, I think, in 2019 and again last night when you're talking about that region of the state and regions similar to it. Number one, he was a brand name, a brand name last name from a sort of earlier era in Kentucky politics. His father, Steve Beshear, had been the governor

of the state back when it was still possible for Democrats to do pretty well in coal country. So I think there was some sort of spillover from that. But the second thing is, this is the kind of state where you'll still see different results when you're talking about a statewide election or a race for governor than you will for a federal election, the presidency, the United States Senate, members of Congress. Kentucky is a state that has gone thoroughly red when it comes to federal elections. But what these voters have shown is a willingness to cross that federal party line when it comes to somebody who's just going to be the governor of their state or going to hold statewide office and not be part of the National Democratic Party, not be tied closely to the

leaders of the National Democratic Party who remain are and remain very unpopular in Kentucky. So it's just West Virginia is a perfect example. I mean, yes, you're talking the West Virginia, you know, very close to West Virginia right there. And these are similar states in that way. It was a shock in 2000 when George W. Bush suddenly carried West Virginia in the presidential election. Michael Dukakis carried West Virginia back in 1988. But yeah, this neck of the woods, basically, it was about 2004 to 2008. It just flipped. If you went over to the western part of the state, sort of western coal country in Kentucky, it happened a little bit earlier. About 1996 or so was the Democrats last stand with Bill Clinton.

But you've seen just these massive, massive shifts in these rural areas of Kentucky and other states like it in Appalachia. So, Steve, let's look at Virginia then as we move around the map a little bit. What exactly happened there? A lot of eyes on those House races, the Senate races. Not only did Democrats hold the Senate, but they flipped the House in a blow to Glenn Youngkin, who, by the way, even 24 hours ago, people were saying, if this goes well, maybe he hops in the presidential race. I think that's the numbers are incredible. Yeah. I mean, so, again, we have the numbers here. Unfortunately, we are the board can do many wonderful things, but state legislative district boundaries we don't have drawn in here yet. Let's see if we can change that one of these days. But anyway, coming into last night, the Democrats did control the state Senate.

They had a twenty to eighteen margin and there are still two uncalled races, but they're going to finish with at least 21. Keep in mind the backdrop. One of the big pieces of context here in Virginia was everybody last night in both state legislative chambers was running under brand new and in some cases radically altered lines. There was a big fight over redistricting that got settled by a third party. So you had some incumbents of each party who were running in districts that were almost completely different than what they'd run in before. You had a ton of retirements because of the dramatic redistricting. But it leaves Democrats in the state Senate with at least 21.

21 is the magic number to guarantee them control there. Then you take a look at the House. This is what Republicans had led coming into the night, what they were hoping to add the Senate to, control of the House. And Democrats, again, two uncalled seats, at least 51. There may be another gain out there for them. But the bottom line, no matter what happens with those two other seats, the Democrats are going to have outright control of the House of Delegates and they're going to have outright control of the state Senate. And as you say, the goal for Youngkin was the exact opposite, to retain control of the House of Delegates and to gain control of the state Senate. And as you say, the goal for Youngkin was the exact opposite, to retain control

of the House of Delegates and to gain control of the state Senate. And he's going to leave the night with neither. Boy, and caddy their national implications here. Again, just looking at trend lines, we can look at pollsters talking to 600, 700, a thousand people. But what really matters is where are those suburbs going in this case? Where are the northern suburbs of Virginia going? Those Washington suburbs that as go those suburbs often go suburbs in other states. You've been out. You specifically visited the district out there. And tell us, are you surprised by the outcome of it or is this what you saw coming? I thought it was going to be tight. And these individual districts, some of them were tight. There was one in particular. I think I mentioned it yesterday, Dix 31, which was this key Senate race between Russet Perry and Segura. Russet Perry, ex-CIA, a little bit in the Abigail Spanberger mold of Democrat, centrist Democrat, definitely ran on protecting abortion rights in Virginia. And she won that district, helping them keep control of

the Senate. And here, I think, is what's interesting and what makes Virginia also interesting for other states and future elections, perhaps next year, is that in Virginia, the pro-abortion rights group were running on the idea of freedom. They kind of moved on from this idea of choice. But what I was hearing a lot of on the campaign trail was freedom, that this was about freedom. And that clearly seems to have resonated. It's a very powerful term. And I think it resonates because it resonates with men as well as women.

This is something that appeals to everybody. And it's language that has changed in the abortion rights movement. And I think we're going to hear that next year as well. But, Steve, let's let's look at Ohio, because one of the things I was wondering is, you know, Ohio was such a good litmus test just of the abortion issue, because this is what the referendum was about right in Ohio. Does that make it slightly different from other states when we look? I mean, can we take Ohio and measure the power of the abortion argument if you put it into a kind of general election context with candidates who are running on the economy and other things? What do you read into Ohio? Yeah, I'd be careful on this one because and we've seen this in a number of other states as well. We saw it in the 2022 midterms, in fact, where some states that had these abortion

referendums or had rather strict restrictions placed on abortion after the fall of Roe, where you saw either results in referendums or you saw results in polling showing that voters didn't like that. But at the same time, in 2022, you saw voters in a number of states, Ohio included, where Republican Governor Mike DeWine had favored a much stricter ban on abortion, easily got reelected, even though voters were expressing that. So this again, this is a state that a year ago easily reelected Mike DeWine as governor. This is a state that, you know, by a 13 point margin has now put in the state constitution the legal right to an abortion. They did add that. I thought this was interesting. And I think this has implications for how this question is adjudicated at the ballot box going forward. The proponents of issue one in Ohio did something that proponents of enshrining abortion rights in state law or constitution haven't done in the big blue states.

They didn't do it in California. They didn't do it in Vermont. In those states, they simply put the right in a state constitution. Big blue states, they passed easily. They put no language in there allowing for any kind of restriction. Proponents of this recognize that the politics of Ohio, a reddish state, once upon a time a swing state, were a little different. So they added language saying that restrictions can be imposed after the point of fetal viability, about 22 to 24 weeks. And the idea here that they had was if that can fly in Ohio, then roll the calendar ahead to 2024. Is that the model that will be used as they try to advance this in red states and swing states?

And I think that's what you're seeing in South Carolina, in Arizona, Florida, states like that. You have ballot initiatives brewing that are going to either codify or put in state constitutions the right to an abortion. But right now, the planning that they're saying they're going to include that language that says restrictions are OK after 24 weeks. So I do think that's a key difference in terms of what passed in Ohio. And the other point I would just make is we this is the one state last night where we actually got an exit poll. So I thought it was interesting because when you look at the makeup of the electorate that supported this by 13 points, they still don't like Joe Biden. His approval rating in the exit poll in Ohio last night was 41 percent. We asked the question in the exit poll, should Joe Biden run for reelection?

Three quarters of voters said no, Joe Biden should not run for reelection. We asked the same question of Donald Trump. A majority said he shouldn't run for reelection, shouldn't run for a second term either, but not nearly as high a number as said that about Joe Biden. And so that's the electorate that by a 56-43 margin just passed issue one. So again, we would say, is there implications here for Ohio, for states like it, for this issue, for 2024? These voters did not warm up to Joe Biden with this issue on the ballot. And so if you look at that exit poll, you'd still say, hey, this was a Trump plus eight state in 2020. And the exit poll outside of this question makes it look like something similar in 2024. That was where I was

going next, Steve, because I wonder when you look at the people who answered the question that way, they don't like Joe Biden. Does that mean they will vote for Donald Trump? Or will they vote for, again, issues like abortion and democracy, whether or not Joe Biden is at the top of the ticket or not? Just how does this portend all these results compared to the polls that we saw just a day earlier? And Steve, a follow-up on that. Joe Biden has always, even as vice president, Joe Biden has always underperformed in polls, it seems. And, you know, he was supposed to get wiped out in 2022. They were supposed, I mean, and yet,

again, Democrats always seem to outperform in the age of Biden. Any thoughts on that? Well, I think it's interesting that both Biden and Trump weren't themselves on any ballot last night. And I think if you look at a history of elections since Donald Trump came on the scene, Republicans have had their best elections, to be honest, in most cases with Donald Trump on the ballot. You know, Donald Trump winning the presidency by surprise in 2016, Donald Trump not winning in 2020, but exceeding the polls in 2020.

Remember, he lost the 2020 presidential election, but Republicans gained a bunch of House seats in 2020. And we ended up at the end of that week looking and saying, could they actually win the House in 2020? So, you know, Biden not on the ballot either. And you look at when you look in the polling, what's the biggest concern voters are expressing about? Well, there's two. What are the two biggest concerns by far that voters are expressing about Biden? Number one is age. And we're in unprecedented.

I mean, either way with Trump or Biden, really, we're kind of in unprecedented waters here. But you're talking about somebody who's going to be 82 years old if he gets reelected next year. And you have massive numbers in these polls saying they are very concerned about his age. They're very concerned about his fitness for office. And it's sort of an untested proposition. Somebody of that age with that level of concern. You didn't see that polling about Ronald Reagan at 73 running for a second term, polling about Bob Dole running against Bill Clinton in 96. Dole didn't do well. Dole didn't win the race, but it wasn't because of his age, by all accounts. And the other issue, too, is just it's the economy. You know, Biden is getting tremendously low marks on the economy.

Now, he can't do anything about his age. None of us can do anything about our ages. But one thing, obviously, the Biden folks would be hoping for is that a year from now, folks are feeling very different about the economy and that that could warm them up to Joe Biden. You know, but again, the only numbers we got that explicitly relate to Joe Biden last night, you know, were consistent with what you'd expect, you know, in Ohio, where he lost by eight points. And we're consistent with the polling that we've seen recently about his standing heading into 2024. And that's not to say that folks are nuts about Donald Trump. I mean, if there's one takeaway, really, from the Trump and Biden numbers in the Ohio exit poll, it's that the majority of voters don't want either one of them running.

It's just that in Ohio, a red state, they more don't want Biden running than Trump. All right. NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki. Thank you so much. Yeah. Jonathan Lemire. All that being said, the last 20 years of politics have been defined by the party out of power doing extraordinarily well in these sort of elections. George W. Bush wins reelection in 2004. Coral Rove talks about a permanent Republican majority. Two years later, Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the House. Barack Obama

wins an era-defining election in 2008. The new Obama majority that's going to change American politics forever. Two years later, the Tea Party wins. The Tea Party saying we're going to change Washington forever. Two years later, Barack Obama wins. Two years later, Republicans. There's always this back and forth. And that's that's what we've seen this this entire century. What is so fascinating about what's happened the last seven or eight years is Donald Trump won and Republicans have lost sense. Now, when Donald Trump was in power, it made sense that there would be that reaction to the party in power because traditionally there always is. But Joe Biden's been in power since since 2020. And Democrats have won in 21, 22, and now 23. There's not that historic blowback against Joe Biden. And I will just say, if Joe Biden were hated and loathed that much,

we would not be seeing Joe Biden's party winning in 21, 22, and 23. I think a lot of people think he's too old. I think a lot of people right now are feeling ambivalent about him. I think a lot of people think he's too old. I think a lot of people right now are feeling ambivalent about him. I think a lot of people right now are going, you know, things cost a little bit more than I like. I think a lot of people right now are just saying no to Joe Biden because they can say it in the polls. But I will just tell you when push comes to shove and we keep being taught this lesson, there was no red wave in 22. And in 23, like the bottom was supposed to have fallen out for Democrats. And a massive night. They won in the state of Kentucky. They won in coal country in Kentucky. They won on abortion in Ohio, a state previously where a 10 year old girl raped by an illegal immigrant had to flee the state because of Ohio laws.

They were that extreme. They crushed Republicans in Virginia, a shocking outcome. I'm sorry, but there's almost a trend here. One note on age, first of all. If Donald Trump wins next year, he'll be the oldest person ever elected president. We should remember that, too. Age can cut both ways here. It's never said. I think what happened last night actually in many ways sort of at least proves, validates what the Biden theory of the case is for next year. They understand Joe Biden himself is not wildly popular.

Polls suggest that he's never had a very high approval rating. Steve just went through it. What we saw there in Ohio, there are real concerns about Joe Biden, the man right now, in terms of being president because of age and everything else. He called me. We've been through the list. That said, the Biden White House's theory of the case, they understand this happened in 2020 as well. He himself is not a driver of enthusiasm. There aren't these hordes of people turning out to vote for Joe Biden, but there are other major factors at play next year. They are turning out to drive to vote in hordes about abortion rights, about choice. They are turning out to vote against

Donald Trump. Donald Trump is the great turnout driver of recent American politics. People turn out to vote for Trump. They turn out to vote against Trump. You know, even yesterday, Governor Beshear, huge win in Kentucky. He didn't really embrace Biden other than on the subject of infrastructure. But he did say he could reach across the aisle, work with his fellow Republicans. Joe Biden has delivered that same message. So there are worries. Democrats are not going to stop being nervous about the polls they saw over the weekend. But last night was a good night for Democrats.

And it seems to foreshadow the kind of race we could have next year. And that's the kind of race that Joe Biden, his team, they know it'll be close, but they believe they'll win. To that point, guys, there's been so much panic in the last 72 hours among Democrats about the New York Times swing state polls. Well, last night, there's panic from Republicans about the issue of abortion. We hear it privately and it spilled out on the airwaves of Fox News last night. You had Donald Trump's former press secretary saying on TV, our losing streak continues on this issue.

We've got to do something. We've got to change. You had their most prominent host saying, look, I'm pro-life, but I guess that my position is not where most of the country is. We've got to do something. The problem for them is it's too late. They did something.

Yeah. They got Roe versus Wade overturned 16 months ago, and now they're living with the political consequences of it. They had Roe v. Wade overturned. You had a Supreme Court justice actually go to the Federalist Society and gloat and gloat about it. You had Donald Trump basically mindlessly turn his brain over to an organization that said they were going to basically say the hell with 70 percent of Americans, the hell with 10 year old rape victims. And you know what? It's a billion or so dollars can rig a court. So you've got a Supreme Court now on abortion that does a lot of things right. But on abortion,

there's no doubt those people that got in there, they lied to the Senate time and time again. They're just liars saying that they were seeing Roe v. Wade as established precedent. At least one or two of them did out of the three. And they did what 70 percent of Americans didn't want them to do. They overturned a half century precedent to take freedom away from women. And you know what? It's not just women, young women and girls who took that personally. A lot of men took that personally. A lot of fathers took that personally. A lot of husbands took that personally. A lot of brothers took that personally. A lot of friends took that personally. And so, yeah, there are consequences. And I just really I want to go back. I just want to go back because I think it was a defining moment where we saw something on this

show, just like we saw when Heilman and Halpern had their their 2016 focus group where that working class lady said she liked Donald Trump because he was one of us. And we all stopped and looked at each other going, he's not, but she thinks he is. And my God, this is this is something that he's connecting with working class voters this way. I go back to when, you know, we had that Atlanta focus group, I guess it was before the 2020 election. And they kept asking these questions about, you know, Trump and why are they still Trump voters? And, you know, they all believed in these conspiracy theories. And the guy who's the biggest believer in the conspiracy theory, you know, all the conspiracy theories,

Ali said, well, and so I take it you're pro-life. And the guy goes, what? No, what are you talking about? I'm a man. Why should I be telling women what they should be doing with their bodies, with their health care, with their freedom? And you sit there and you look at it and we're like, wow, OK, this one's going to cut across all boundaries. And it has. And it's why Republicans keep losing. And like you said, they're even saying it in primetime now. I mean, I guess before they get or after they get trashed in 22 politically, the Wall Street

Journal editorial page and Ann Coulter came out and said, guys, you just keep losing. Like, get smart. But they can't because it's done, first of all. And secondly, because they got their presidential candidate they love so much, Donald Trump, who has spent the last two years bragging, quote, I'm the one who killed Roe v. Wade. And you're right. That's going to be in just about every ad we see. And to your point about Republicans and their position, Republican men, that Ohio vote tells the story.

It's a red state that went for Donald Trump has the last time around and the time before that to win by 14 points on that ballot initiative last night. You had to have Republicans. You had to have men. You had to have independents voting yes on that to enshrine the right to abortion in the state's

Constitution. So that cuts across parties, that cuts across ideology. That is a huge statement right there. And as you say, Republicans have put themselves in a box on this. They got what they wanted. Roe versus Wade is overturned. And now here they are seeing the consequences at the polls. People don't like having their rights taken away. It's something for a first in a lifetime to see something like this happen, a 50 year precedent. And Republicans can try and tweak their positions on this. But the damage is done and it is now showing. Well, because I mean, it is, again, as Democrats say, it's about freedom. It's about freedom. You know, it's funny.

Republicans ran around for years talking about freedom, freedom, freedom, freedom. They don't even let a 10-year-old girl who's raped. Come on. Her parents have the freedom to talk to a doctor, to talk to a psychiatrist, to talk to their preacher, to talk to their family members, to come together and counsel. No, instead of all of that, to figure out what to do with this poor 10-year-old girl, they have to shove her in a car and flee the state. I mean, that's what Donald Trump brought America. And America is answering back in the voting booth.

So still ahead on Morning Joe, we'll be joined by Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio on the heels of that big win for abortion rights in his state. Plus, a preview of tonight's third Republican presidential primary debate. Also ahead, Israeli defense forces now are said to be in the heart of Gaza. Well, the latest on the fighting amid an apparent rift between the U.S. and Israel when it comes to the future of the enclave. The Daily Beast's David Rothkopf will join us to explain why he says Biden and Netanyahu look headed for a breakup. You're watching Morning Joe. We'll be right back. Beautiful live picture with the sun up now over the White House at 648 in the morning.

Tonight, NBC News will host the third Republican presidential primary debate. It'll be down in Miami. All five of the Republican candidates taking the stage are a distant, distant behind the current frontrunner, former President Donald Trump, who, again, will not participate in this debate. Join us now from the site of the debate tonight. Senior writer for The Dispatch, David Drucker. David, good morning. So headline Donald Trump is not there. The field has been narrowed down to five candidates on the stage. What are you expecting tonight? Well, it's a really good question. You know, they're trying to compete not for first place, but to finally become the consensus alternative to take on the guy who is in first place and who's in first place by quite a lot.

And so it's sort of a difficult thing to navigate. I think that there are probably a couple of storylines here to pay attention to. One, Senator Tim Scott, the South Carolina Republican, his campaign has not gone the way he has wanted it to go. It's now an Iowa or bus strategy. This is despite all the money he's raised and sort of all of the goodwill he has within the party. He's trying to stand out and trying to sort of jump of the goodwill he has within the party. He's trying to stand out and trying to sort of jumpstart a more abundant campaign. Can he get that done, and how does he try to do it? I suspect he'll go after Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley,

the former South Carolina governor who appointed him to the Senate, and the former U.N. ambassador. I'm looking to see the interplay between Haley and DeSantis themselves. They've been going at it via their campaigns over the past couple of weeks because they seem at this point to be the most likely consensus alternatives to Donald Trump if one is to emerge. And remember, Willie, emerge in time to make a difference. You know, I talked to a lot of Republicans inside these campaigns. I talked to the candidates. They seem to live in this world where we can wait for Iowa.

We can wait for New Hampshire. No, no, look, I think as long as it's one-on-one by Super Tuesday, then, you know, we have a shot. And I think you've got to nab Trump in Iowa, certainly no later than New Hampshire, or the inevitability that's already there is going to metastasize and this race is going to be over. And, you know, finally, I didn't mention Chris Christie or Vivek Ramaswamy. Christie's been interesting because he's had to find a new way to handle these debates without Donald Trump there. He doesn't want to punch down. His whole campaign is defined by going after the frontrunner,

which is not a bad way to try to win. So he's had to navigate it differently on this stage. And Vivek Ramaswamy, I suspect, will hear a lot of the same thing we've heard from him in the past, which is that neocons are bad, war is bad, and I'm the only guy with any brains on this stage. And by the way, everybody's on the take. It hasn't done him any good, but he's got a lot of money. He's got a personal bank account to keep his campaign in play. And and so, you know, look, we'll see if this can't if this evening or any evening coming up can can be an inflection point. So I'm looking at the headline in your piece about Republicans who are opposed to Trump

grappling with this idea of consolidation. There are a lot of big donors out there. There are many Republicans who are exhausted by Donald Trump, would love to move on. Nikki Haley seems to have emerged as a more popular choice as Governor DeSantis of Florida has receded a bit. Is she the choice among that group of people who still would like to see an alternative within the party to Donald Trump? Look, she's a choice of some. Right. So we should point out DeSantis was endorsed by Governor Kim Reynolds of Iowa. He's hoping that that does for him what nothing else has done for him so far. Nikki Haley is intriguing to a lot of the Republican donors that have been keeping their powder dry because they don't want to waste their money and they don't want to contribute to a fractured field.

They want to see people fall by the wayside. And then if they've got a good choice in front of them that can take on Trump one-on-one or near one-on-one, I think they would pour money into that choice. Nikki has been on an upward trajectory. But she has to get to a point where she's not just number one among the number twos. She's got to be in a position where some of these polls close between her and Trump, and there's some separation between her and everybody else below her. And that's what donors are looking for.

You know, the problem Republicans have, Willie, is that there's no way to consolidate the field other than it happening organically. Candidates like Mike Pence, the former vice president, deciding, well, first of all, I don't have any money, and second of all, this is not the campaign I want it to run. As long as people insist on staying in the way North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum is until

the votes happen, it's going to contribute to the sort of fractured field that keeps donors out and helps Trump, who right now doesn't even look like he necessarily needs that much help. One final thing I'll say about the polls that came out over the weekend that were so bad for Joe Biden, they were really bad for all of the Republicans we're going to hear from tonight because it eliminates an electability argument that they can either make or that can present itself without them having to say so. A lot of Republican voters are looking at Donald Trump and saying, hey, he can win. He can beat Biden. He is beating Biden. So what do I have to go with somebody else for if I don't want to? Right, right, right. Senior writer for The Dispatch,

David Drucker, thank you very much. You know, there's one thought there that David was talking about and consolidate consolidating around one candidate. But why don't they all just say the same thing for once? They all tippy toe. I don't kick sideways about Donald Trump. Why don't they all just go in? Wouldn't that help a bit to talk about the truth when you have a front runner who's facing four indictments and countless other legal problems and tried to overturn the election. Well, they're scared. Try the truth for once. It doesn't work with the Republican or the people in the Republican base. Does it, Jonathan? Well, I thought the truth worked with the base,

people that when you were running for Congress and you spoke to the very same people. Well, you've got to be all in the truth. Here's the thing, though. You don't talk about kicking sideways. If you're going to go after them, you've got to go after them hard. You've got to go after them explaining why they're not conservative. You've got to go after them saying this is what I believe. And, you know, I'm sorry. I know Donald Trump did some things that a lot of people here like and fantastic. But but he's taking us on the wrong path. We keep losing elections. We can't keep losing the Democrats are going to Joe Biden has already appointed 150 federal judges. He's reshaping the federal judiciary. If Donald Trump's

our nominee, he's going to have eight years of reshaping the federal judiciary. And we just can't afford that. Democrats will take back the Supreme Court and they will own the federal court system because of the record number of justices that he's appointing. I mean, that would be a good argument to make. Nobody's going to make it, Jonathan O'Meara, because they're all afraid of the Republican base. So what's the way forward? I mean, Nikki Haley actually matched up better against Joe Biden than Donald Trump. But she's the one who's been talking about kicking sideways. She's the one. I mean, she's not going after him like she's running against him. Not hard. No, there's been very little. We've heard a little bit from Governor DeSantis in recent days talking about Trump's mental fitness for the job, suggesting that Trump has lost his fastball. And I don't there's no sense yet that's been effective. And it's certainly late in the game for those kind

of attacks. The rest of them have barely laid a glove on Trump. You know, and as we discussed yesterday, the Biden White House thought the Biden campaign thought that it would be these folks, the Republican Trump's Republican rivals who would who would take some real bites out of him this year that would make their job easier, allow them to focus on the positives of Joe Biden rather than the negatives of Donald Trump. That hasn't happened. So we're going to see the White House have to deliver, go negative probably sooner than they thought. This group here playing for second place, they're not even close. And there has not been much of a sign that that dynamic is going to change. And I thought David made a good point there, one that the Trump team was happy to harp on in the last couple of days, that the electability

issue, which already wasn't really working for Republicans, but that took another hit with those polls the other day. That said, the counter would be the results from last night, where this is yet another moment where Republican issues turned out to be losers at the ballot box. And I'll be very interested to hear what the candidates on stage tonight, some of whom who have embraced a national abortion ban, what they will say in the wake of that issue taking another defeat at the ballot box. Joan Meeker. That will be fascinating. I'll be looking forward to that as well. Israeli ground troops have now reached the heart of Gaza City. Israel's defense minister made that announcement yesterday, saying its forces are, quote, tightening the noose. Meanwhile, it's been just over a month since the Hamas terror attack, and there are still questions over the missed intelligence and security failures.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was asked about that by ABC News. The first task of government is to protect the people. And clearly, we didn't live up to that. We had a big, big setback. I've said that there are going to be very tough questions that are going to be asked, and I'm going to be among the first to answer them. We're not going to evade that. The responsibility of a government is to protect the people, and clearly that responsibility wasn't met. But you know what I'm asking here, because so many Israeli officials, including the defense minister, the military intelligence chief,

the military chief of staff, they've all taken some responsibility for Israel being caught off guard. They didn't say we have to wait for an investigation here. Do you believe that you should take any responsibility? Of course, that's not a question. It's going to be resolved after the war. I think there'll be time to allocate that. Wow. Joining us now for The Daily Beast, David Rothkopf. His latest piece is entitled Biden and Netanyahu look headed for a breakup on unqualified U.S. support for the Gaza war. David, thank you so much for being here. I'm not sure we can wait to find out what happened.

Well, and that's that's the thing that we've been hearing. You know, Richard Haass has talked about it. Peggy Noon talked about it in The Wall Street Journal. Ed Luce talked about it the Financial Times, a lot of people looking at this and saying, well, Israel can't really wait for the war to be over for Benjamin Netanyahu to be replaced because that face of the Israeli government is not trusted, not only around the world, but inside Israel as well. So how does Joe Biden forge a lasting partnership with somebody who was responsible for what happened on October the 7th and who's

not even trusted by the Israeli people? Well, I don't think he forms a lasting partnership with him. Joe Biden's response after October 7th was due to a loyalty to the people of Israel, to the country of Israel. But he was never that close with Netanyahu. The reason the United States embraced Netanyahu in this kind of bear hug was partially to show support. But it was also partially because they didn't trust Netanyahu. They thought he might overreact. And in Gaza, as he has, they were concerned about some of his other reactions. And that's all borne out. And, you know, what we've seen over the course of the past several weeks is the Biden administration saying, let's have pauses for humanitarian assistance and Netanyahu going, maybe not so much and saying, let's,

you know, honor international law and be very sensitive to civilian casualties and have Netanyahu go, well, that's not our top priority and say, let's not have crackdowns in the West Bank and Netanyahu ignoring it. And now you've got, you know, an issue where the administration would like to push back on the idea that the Israelis take back control over Gaza, something Netanyahu has proposed. And it's clear they're on completely divergent tracks. So you've got Blinken there for the third time. You've got the United States working this as hard as possible, but there is really no way for them to trust Bibi Netanyahu because he's not trustworthy. David, you get the sense that the Biden administration just in the last few days is kind of shifting its tone. We heard Tony Blinken, you know, in a very moving account,

talking about when he looked at the children in Gaza, he saw the faces of his own two young children. And I'm just, you know, are they trying to distance themselves not just from Bibi Netanyahu, but to also kind of try and, I guess, message to the rest of the Arab world in particular that they have empathy for Palestinians? And is that a strategy that's too late? Could it be a successful strategy? Is it a needed strategy? What do you make of it? Well, I don't think it's too late, because I think the administration has said from the very outset that it wanted to make sure that there were not unnecessary civilian casualties in Gaza.

As the civilian casualties have grown, they have more publicly pushed back on the Israelis. Tony Blinken has met with Arab leaders on a regular basis. President Biden has spoken to them. And I think the message repeatedly has been, we care about the people of Israel. We care about the people of the Palestinian territories. We want to preserve all of their rights. That's our objective. Let's have a plan and let's get there unless we support this particular government, unless we support this particular prime minister. The Daily Beast, David Rothkopf, thank you very much for your analysis this morning. It has just passed the top of the hour on this Wednesday, November 8th. Jonathan Lemire, Katty Kaye still with us and joining the

conversation. We have former U.S. senator now in NBC News and MSNBC political analyst Claire McCaskill and special correspondent at Vanity Fair and host of the Fast Politics podcast, Molly John. Claire, I'm not really good at this politics thing. I just kind of fell off a turnip. I just kind of fell off a turnip truck outside of 30 Rock a couple of years ago and wandered into a studio. So I don't know much. This is in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023. And they lose in states like Kentucky and Ohio and Virginia. Which is what happened last night. In a big way. They lost in a big way.

Why do they keep going blindly in that direction? Why do they just keep going down the path that has led them from one loss to another, to another, to another? Yeah, it's interesting. And if you look, Joe, think about this. They just selected Mike Johnson as speaker. Now, here's a guy who has said that anybody who performs an abortion should have to do hard labor. Here's a guy who is for the most extreme position possible on this issue that clearly is now resonating as a reality post-Obs. I mean, this is not theoretical anymore. Women are living this. And in my state, for example, where it's a total ban, government forced birth for anyone who's raped or has incest happen to them. But, you know, these Republicans are candidate for governor in Missouri just said he would be against any provision on the ballot that would change the rape and incest exception. So they're so so out of touch with reality. And, you know, one thing I got to mention

about Kentucky, this this issue about transgender rights, the Republicans think they have this big winner. Well, last night they they came after Andy Beshear because he vetoed a bill on transgender rights in Kentucky. He vetoed it. You know what he said when he vetoed it, Joe? He said, this is about parental rights. Government should not be telling parents how to handle their children. This is not right. This is parental rights.

And guess what? People voted for him last night over the Trump back candidate in a big way. So these issues they think like banning all abortions and transgender rights, they think these are winners. They need to check again with the suburbs of America because they're not winners in the suburbs. For sure. Abortion was the overriding issue of the night last night with Democrats keeping control of Virginia's state house and the Senate and the House of Delegates. They didn't think they would be able to get both. They were able to flip the House of Delegates in what is seen as a huge rebuke to the Republican governor there. Ohio voted for issue one abortion rights across the state of Ohio.

Republicans amended 54 percent. Absolutely. Kentucky's a big win. Republicans did. And of course. Men did. 54% of men. Absolutely. Kentucky's incumbent governor, Andy Beshear, won a second four-year term in Kentucky, defeating the state's Republican Attorney General Daniel Cameron, 52% to 47%. Beshear is projected to have beaten his Trump-backed opponent by a wider margin than when he first won the governor's mansion back in 2019. This in a state that Donald Trump won by 26 points in the 2020 election. Here was part of the governor's message in his victory speech last night. Tonight, Kentucky made a choice.

A choice not to move to the right or to the left, but to move forward for every single family. A choice to reject Team R or Team D and to state clearly that we are one Team Kentucky. That's Governor Andy Beshear reelected to a second term. And Molly, if you look inside the numbers, he won four years ago by four tenths of a point, by 5,000 votes in a state that size. Last night, he won by five points, one going away. And he did it, as Steve Kornacki showed us, not just in those urban areas, moving out into coal country in districts. Kornacki just showed us Trump won with 80 percent of the vote. Governor Beshear won there. So an extraordinary sweeping win by this. He's a rising

star for sure in the party. But as we've been saying all morning, the issue of abortion was on the ballot. Daniel Cameron, the attorney general, had supported no exceptions for rape or incest. And that state law tried to back off of it when he realized how unpopular it was going to be and may have cost him last night. Yeah, I think we've seen Republican governors sort of get too far over their skis. And if you look at Ron DeSantis, right, he used his Republican perch to ban a lot of stuff, to attack trans kids, to really do all the primary stuff for his presidential run. And I think voters don't like it. And I think it made voters sort of not trust Republican governors so much. And that's what you saw with Glenn Youngkin in Virginia, right? They just didn't trust it. And I would say one other thing about

abortion, which is there are what we saw with overturning Roe was just the fact that people abortion was about medical care. As much as it was about abortion, it was about doctors being afraid to treat. Right. It was about doctors saying, I don't want to lose my license. You know, it looks like you have to wait to go into sepsis. I can't. And I think it's worth thinking about this idea that there are women in this country who do not want to die for Mike Johnson's religious beliefs. And we played in our last hour that extremely powerful ad from the young woman in the state of Kentucky who'd been raped by her stepfather and saying, Daniel Cameron, you want me to be forced to have this child. Virginia, as Molly mentioned, NBC News projecting Democrats will keep control of Virginia's state Senate, but also flip the House of Delegates.

Not many people expected that being viewed as a rebuke to Governor Young in their Democrats. Now control two thirds of the state government and will be able to block Republican priorities on issues like abortion, also guns and voting rights. The race for full control of the legislator came down largely to abortion access, with Democrats campaigning against Youngkin's push for a 15-week abortion ban, with exceptions for rape, incest, the health of the mother. Last night, Richmond's Democratic Mayor LeVar Stoney framed it all this way. You saw what happened in Kansas. You saw what's happened in other parts of the country.

And in Virginia, the same result. People want their rights, particularly women want their rights. And so any sort of scale back of those rights, roll back of those rights that Governor Youngkin was offering, essentially, was repudiated tonight. And it's my hope that the Republicans, particularly Governor Youngkin, listen.