Morning Joe - Morning Joe 11/9/22

Episode Date: November 9, 2022

Democrats avoid Biden backlash and hold their own in 2022 races

. It is the morning after the election. Wow. Holy cow. Welcome everybody, our live audience. It's the morning after the election, and control of Congress still hangs in the balance. The big news. Wait, wait, hold on a second. Wait, wait, hold on. Yes, you're interrupting. I'm surprised. Republicans, I mean, historically, I don't know if you know this or not, but I follow politics. Yeah. Like,

historically, they're up to 40, 50, 60, 70 seats, right? Right, Michael? We were talking about this yesterday. We were thinking, I mean, 40, 50, 60. So, Kevin McCarthy's like, he's in charge this morning, right? Yes. Yeah, okay.

Hey, Kevin McCarthy. How many speeches did he do? Kevin McCarthy. Meet Liz Truss. And Liz Cheney. The big news overnight. John Fetterman helps Democrats flip the state of Pennsylvania. The only party to win. I'm a boy.

I'm a party so far. Other two Senate races remain uncalled. Georgia and Wisconsin too close to call. Arizona, Nevada, and Alaska too early to call. Democrats currently lead the count, 48 seats to 47. Wait a second. I know. Wait a second.

What happened? I don't understand. Michael Steele, you ran a party I did In off-year elections I mean, I'm here Because of an off-year election They usually even elect people like me, David Plouffe

In off-year elections I'm serious There's always a wave There was a wave in 82 and 86 With Ronald Reagan Against Reagan There was a wave in 82 and 86 with Ronald Reagan against Reagan. There was a wave against Barack Obama. There's a way. I don't understand this.

It's not. Democrats are still. Yeah, they still have a chance of holding on to the Senate. This wasn't even a good ripple. I mean, this is. Yeah. There's not a red wave. It's not a red wave. Maybe a little bit of spotting.

That's it. Spotting a good puddle in some corners, that's about the best you're going to get. Let's spray paint. That's all I'm talking about. Hey, Donald Trump. He doesn't watch. Meet Boris Johnson.

I mean, there was really, there was a coronation last night, probably as grand as King Charles III's coronation is going to be in the spring. And it was Ron DeSantis in Florida. Massive victory down there, right? Unfortunately, Donald Trump lost the rest of America. Now, I'm not going to say this is the end of Donald Trump lost the rest of America. Now, I'm not going to say this is the end of Donald Trump, but there are a lot of Republicans this morning waking up going,

wait a second, Ron DeSantis is winning Miami-Dade outright and winning 20 percentage points in this state historically, while Donald Trump is tweeting, cheering against Republicans. I don't think last night was a good win for Donald. No, it was a bad night for him. It was not a red wave. Don't take our word for it. Lindsey Graham was on NBC last night saying, whoo, this did not go the way we thought it was going to go. This was not a red wave. That's Lindsey Graham saying that. That's one thing. The governor's race is that people were concerned about New York. Kathy Hochul held on here, Wisconsin, Michigan.

With their election deniers running, they lost there. So election denialism was on the ballot and it lost overwhelmingly last night, time and time again. And to your point, Ron DeSantis winning by almost 20 points in Florida, remaking the map, remaking the Obama coalition, winning, flipping by 20 points from a couple of years ago, Latino voters. It would appear this morning this is Ron DeSantis's party and not Donald Trump's. Yeah, it's not Donald Trump's. I mean, everything Trump touches politically dies. Yes. He lost in 17. He lost local races and Senate races. Lost in 18. He lost governorships in the South in 19. He lost in 20. And now, of course, 22. Just a massive loss. I want to talk, though, about something I didn't hear enough about last night, Jen. And that is that is how the final polls were showing that Dobbs, the overturning didn't matter.

Woman's right. Right, didn't matter. Now, I mean, David Plouffe and other people that are a lot smarter than me will always say, you don't know exactly who the electorate is going to be. And that's why we shouldn't kick pollsters around. You never know if populists are going to go to the polls. But last night, early on, you started seeing, what did voters today think were the most important issues? Abortion, 35%. What?

It does turn out. And what happened was those were the people pollsters didn't reach. I didn't hear that enough last night. Dobbs made a huge difference and i think every democrat should send a pie to a member of the federalist society that they know because the federalist society you know what we'll bring one to leonard yes we'll have we'll have city can bring cookies to the supreme court and cookies to this no seriously yeah this was the quiet revolution the silent majority majority, even in states like Kentucky. Yes, we don't we do not know in Kentucky, a state where Joe Biden was walloped in 2020,

whether or not they're going to protect a woman's right to choose. That is amazing. It was a huge night for abortion rights across the country. I mean, women voted in droves in a number of states. That right is now protected in a number of states that are unexpected. And it also drove a number of people to victory. So, yes, what people said a few weeks ago that it didn't matter, that it was fading. It didn't. Turns out that wasn't right. Number one issue in exit polls in the state of Pennsylvania was abortion. Number one issue for John Fetterman and also for Josh Shapiro, who won big.

David, let you take it wherever you want. You've got the smart mind about what happens from here and what happened last night. But independence, a fascinating number there. In off-year elections, the out party usually loses independence by wide margins. Early on here this morning, we're seeing Democrats winning by a couple of points, holding on to those votes. Well, the lesson is there are more conservatives in every swing district and swing state than there are liberals.

So the math is simple. Democrats have to do at least enough on turnout. They have to win the middle of the electorate everywhere. And they were able to do that last night, I think, in part or largely because of abortion. The other thing is voters under 30. I think they were underrepresented in polls. And so, you know, if our democracy is saved and we sit here on January 21st, 2025, after the presidential election, we have a democracy. We need to thank young people who turned out to protect the

enterprise. And if you talk to Democrats, they would say these are the states we're most worried about. All right. Wisconsin. A lot of Democrats are saying this summer Evers isn't going to be able to hold on. Michigan. Whitmer was in the fight for her life against somebody who said a 14 year old girl getting raped by your uncle was a perfect reason to not let her have an abortion. And then Pennsylvania. I mean, you look at those three states and how they're going to be run in 24. That sweep, a lot of people may not be talking about it this morning, is massive. And the big difference for first of all, Tony Evers beat his 2018 margin, which is actually pretty amazing. Right. Nobody thought he was going to win and he beat his 2018. Can we stop for one second and just say in an environment, worst inflation since 1982,

an economy that's reeling and moving towards a recession, a stock market that's crashing. And yes, crime, people feeling less comfortable in cities than ever before. And that's the environment Democrats won in. They did. And now all the states you mentioned, Joe, what's really important, I think, is that that could have gone in the direction of election deniers, people who did not want the will of the public to determine who they would elect, being the secretary of state or the governor or determining how people would vote, could vote,

how easily they could vote and whether or not they would certify the outcome in 2024. That was potentially headed in that direction in all of those states. And victory, democracy won out, which is a good news. Well, we're still counting votes in this election, but my mind, of course, goes to the next election. So the other thing that shows, you just mentioned how tough the economy is. Listen, I hope Democrats find a way forward in Florida. We've got to put that back in play eventually, but really hard now. So Democrats to win the electoral college have to win the blue wall. And those three races, those three states showed that it's still intact,

even in this environment. Really important for the future of the country. So the three big losers again, Donald. They all begin with the letter D. Dobbs. Right. And election deniers. And Von Hilliard tweeted this out. Very helpful. Well, and I said, pro tip, don't run against democracy in America. You will lose. And tonight, the GOP governor candidates who refused to say if they'd certified Biden's 2020 election all lost. I had it on my phone. He took it off the screen.

I'll put it on my phone again. Tim Michaels, Wisconsin. Tudor Dixon, Michigan. Doug Mastriano, Pennsylvania. Oh, my God. Doug, just please go home. It's time. All right.

Watch Netflix for a couple of months. It's time. All right. Watch Netflix for a couple of months. It's bad. Darren Bailey, Illinois, down. Dan Cox, Maryland, got crushed. Lee Zeldin beaten. And Carrie Lake right now. Oh, my God. She's whining so much.

Carrie is going to whine a lot today. She's going to. I mean, election deniers got pounded last night. So what does that say about the American people writ large, but specifically the people on the front lines of those votes in those states? I think there was a lot of question about whether or not they would stand on that wall for democracy and, you know, succumb to the fancy rhetoric and the glossy look that a Kerry Lake would have. And they didn't. They said, no, we are better than this. We know what happened in 2020. And I think the idea of just going further into the crazy. Yeah. Folks just like I can't. I can't. I think folks are looking for. Can we just stop doing stupid?

Can we just stop pretending this stuff is real and focus on and why that's important, Joe, to your point about governors. Everyone focuses on federal elections in Congress. It's the governor's races where the people are closest to those candidates and they're much more in the mix in terms of the narrative. And that to me says a lot. When all of those gubernatorial election deniers go down, it tells me that the American people are a lot more engaged than we believe they are. Give them credit for. And that was proven in some of the last pollings that we did in NBC, where democracy was the number one issue going into the weekend before the election. We haven't called Arizona yet. We're going to go to Steve Kornacki in just a minute.

But Kelly's looking good for the moment right there against Blake Masters, another election denier. Don Bolduc lost in New Hampshire, an election denier who twisted himself in knots during the general election, tried to say, well, I've reviewed the evidence and maybe the election was good. So he loses to Maggie Hassan in a race that Democrats are worried about. Donald Trump trashes him after the race that you didn't deny the election enough. That's why he lost. So they're all twisted in knots over this. He loses. I'll give you another one. Lauren Boebert in Colorado. She's in the mold of Marjorie Taylor Greene and the other conspiracy theorists. She hasn't lost yet.

She's the one who said that if Jesus had an AR-15, he would have been crucified. That race has not been called, but she is in a fight and she is trailing right now. And you look at these things and it just, you bringing up New Hampshire, reminds me of the fact what we were all hearing yesterday morning. And what we were hearing yesterday morning, despite the fact we said, this seems to be going in all different directions, this doesn't feel like a wave. But guys, I know you were hearing it. Republicans saying, we think we're going to win New Hampshire.

We think we got a good shot at Colorado. We think we're going to win New York. We think we're going to win Washington State. Those races weren't close. No. Like Michael Bennett. Like that guy could have stayed in bed the last couple of months. He won so easily. And Tiffany Smiley, who was the Washington Senate candidate who was supposed to be the huge rising star for the Republicans. We never even saw her face on television, at least not other stations. But the other thing I think,

taking away from last night, coming into this election, everybody thought the economy being number one on voters' minds meant that is very bad for Democrats. That is not how it played out. And it may be that actually voters care, American people care about the economy, and they maybe like the Democrats' plan better when they're picking. And that is a different takeaway than we were for days. I think the bigger problem actually is that the Republicans just don't have a plan. They don't have a plan. Something's better than nothing. They've been complaining about the Affordable Care Act, about Obamacare for 12 years. In 12 years, they've never come forward with a comprehensive health care plan of their own. And they had no plan for inflation. None. So I'm sure a lot of Americans were thinking, you know what, this is it's horrible.

Maybe maybe I need to go Republican. You get closer and closer. Then you go, wait a second. They haven't told me a single thing they're going to do. Well, it's such a deeply flawed brand. I mean, this was a huge opportunity for them because of the tough environment. Right. But I think a lot of voters are like the price of change is just too high. I cannot go with these folks. And Trump, you know, he presided in the White House over a catastrophic 18 midterm loss. You know, he is the architect of this loss. And I think it's going to be fascinating in the days to come how many Republicans are actually able to speak publicly. Will they speak publicly and say we have to be careful about assuming this guy is our nominee? Because 37 percent approval rating without electorate last night.

I mean, it is catastrophic. I mean, Mitch McConnell was right when he said a few months ago, remember, candidate quality matters. It turns out, you know, he was prescient. Yep. It does. Quick case in David's point. Pennsylvania. Oh, my God.

Pat Toomey decides, I don't want any part of this Republican Party anymore. I don't want to have to bend the knee to Donald Trump. I'm out. I'm getting out of politics. OK, so they run him out, a guy who could have held onto a seat. Who do they bring in? Not Dave McCormick. Donald Trump puts his hand on Dr. Oz, the TV doctor who lives in New Jersey,

and he loses the race. So yes, Donald Trump was the architect in that state and many others. Dave McCormick, he wouldn't have been close. Yeah, he would have done well. There are some states where we're still waiting to see what happens. Let's bring in NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki at the big board. I think in some states there are. In some states, I feel like they're not sure if Herschel should fly the plane. Well, so let's take you through the where things stand in terms of the battle for the Senate right now. Remember, came into yesterday at 50-50 in the Senate. That was good enough for the Democrats to control it

with Kamala Harris's tie. The big change so far has been in Pennsylvania. It's a Democratic gain. What that means with the rest of the map is there's three Democratic-held seats, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and there's one Republican-held seat, Wisconsin, all uncalled. The lead for Ron Johnson, the Republican in Wisconsin, sits just north of 30,000 votes. There are some Democratic votes still to come out of Milwaukee, out of Madison. There are some Republican votes to come from elsewhere. So just for the sake of argument, if you say that Johnson hangs on there, if he doesn't, that's ballgame for the Senate. But if you say that Johnson hangs on there for the sake of argument, then it's going to leave Georgia, Arizona, Nevada in a question of can Republicans win two out of those three? That's what they would need to get the Senate. Otherwise, Democrats hold

it. And if you just take a look at where those three stand this morning, here we are in Georgia, Raphael Warnock with an 18,000 vote advantage over Herschel Walker. There are still some votes to come in. You can see they're about 96% of the estimated vote. Our decision desk has not touched this, has not called this. I could say that the Secretary of State's office in Georgia last night publicly tweeted that they are preparing for a runoff in this race. Because, again, nobody gets to 50%. They would go to a runoff. That would be on December 6th. Very possible that neither warnock nor walker finish with 50 this goes to a runoff to be

determined uh on december 6th then you take a look at arizona you're talking about this one the big development overnight is in the biggest county of the state which is maricopa county maricopa county appears to have completed counting all of its same day vote. If you were watching these votes as they came in last night, initially Mark Kelly and Maricopa had an advantage north of 20 points. It's now fallen to about eight points. That's the effect of having all of that same day vote counted in. What remains in Maricopa County, and this can sometimes be a days-long process, ballots dropped off in the final few days before the election and on Election Day. They'll release them in nightly batches in Maricopa County.

But you can see this is critical. I think the lead that Mark Kelly has, excuse me, the lead that Mark Kelly has statewide is one hundred seven thousand. OK, now in the 2020 presidential election, when turnout was higher, when we reached this comparable point overnight, Maricopa same day counted the advantage that Joe Biden had in the state was one hundred ten thousand votes. OK, and it came down about one hundred thousand. So that was that is in a higher turnout atmosphere, though. So given that the turnout is down and Kelly's lead is sitting close to one hundred ten thousand as well, I think, again, there's no characterization from our decision desk, but that's a pad there that Democrats are probably feeling pretty optimistic

about. And it makes the difference between the Senate race, one hundred seven thousand vote lead for the Democrat there and the governor's race where Katie Hobbs has gone through the same set of votes now that we just talked about and is only is ahead by 70,000 fewer almost. That is prime striking distance for Carrie Lake with the vote that is still to be counted, at least potentially. So that's going to be the story the next couple of days. Based on what we saw in 2020, that final vote that was counted up was Republican friendly. If it were to be that Republican friendly again, it would be Lake might be in a good position, but Masters might be falling short. But that's a big question here. What does that vote look like? Does it look different than 2020? If Republicans fail to get Arizona, then they absolutely need to get Nevada. You're looking

at the governor's race here, but let's call the Senate race up. And again, the development overnight here in the Senate race is that Adam Laxall actually took the lead in the count over Catherine Cortez Masto. Now, what is left to be counted in Nevada? Primarily two things here. Late arriving, like dropped off day of, drop box vote in Clark County and in Wash U County. We're trying to get a handle on exactly how many ballots that means to be counted in those places. Is it enough for Cortez Masto to overcome a 22,500 vote deficit and win this race? You look at the governor's race, the Democratic governor down about 40,000 votes, so notably a difference between the two of those. But essentially,

I think what we're looking at here, this is Governor, what we're looking at here is this. Let me just call this up. If Johnson hangs on here, if this goes to a runoff. All right. Now, just for the sake of argument, if Democrats hang on to the Senate seat in Arizona, for the sake of argument, if laxle hangs on in nevada what that would add up to is 50 republican 49 democrat and a runoff in georgia that would determine control of the senate on december 6th and conversely if cortez masto is able to in the remaining votes overtake laxle and that actually stays democratic then the runoff in Georgia would still proceed. But Democrats would have control of the Senate no matter what. So I think a lot is resting on understanding exactly what that remaining vote is in Nevada.

And if indeed there is enough there for Cortez Masto to overtake Laxalt and give Democrats an outright win there. So I'm curious. John Rawlson had talked about he believed there were a lot of mail-in votes still coming in in Clark County. And if they break two to one for Cortez Masto, then that could put her ahead. Do we know? Are there 100,000 mail-on votes in Clark County still outstanding? That's what we're trying to get a hold of. It would be Clark and then to a lesser degree, but not insignificant, Washoe County, where Reno is.

Those two counties combined are 90 percent of the state. And that is the question right now that we're trying to get a handle on. Exactly how many outstanding ballots are there? And then, as I say, there is that question. Same question we have in Arizona is, are they going to break? In Arizona, what we found in 2020 was that there was a big difference in terms of the votes, the early votes, the mail votes that were dropped off early on versus the ones that were dropped off at the last minute. The ones that were dropped off at the last minute were much more Republican in character than the ones that were returned early. That's why Trump

made up a lot of ground in the final days of the vote count in Arizona in 2020, not enough to win the state, but enough to make it close. So there's a question there in Arizona and I think in Nevada as well of what the character of the remaining vote would be, the political character of it would be. So that's what we're trying to figure out. There could certainly be enough for Cortez Masto to overtake Laxalt. Laxalt did have a pretty good overnight just in terms of putting himself in contention here. So I think it's the biggest wild card here. There's an opportunity. There's a clearer opportunity for Democrats, I think,

right now, excuse me, for Republicans in Nevada than there is in Arizona for their Senate candidate to get that pickoff. They're going to need to get one of those two. Then they're going to need to force Georgia into a runoff and win Georgia. That would be the Republican path to Senate control right now. Anything short of that could still have a Georgia runoff, but it wouldn't matter. Democrats would have the Senate. All right, Steve, thank you. And we're going to be breaking this all down through the four hours of Morning Joe.

So Steve Kornacki will be back later this morning. Thank you, Steve. As a result, it's a four-hour. morning, Joe. So Steve Kornacki will be back later this morning. Thank you, Steve. David, we've been warning our viewers for the past couple of days. And if it comes down to Arizona and Nevada to just sit back and relax because they count two votes, they take a break for lunch, they have a ham sandwich, then they come back, count one more vote, and then leave. They're always slow in Arizona and Nevada. I mean, why? Do you know?

It's just, I think, a huge influx of mail ballots. A lot of people, California is another place. You've got key house races. Those may take a couple of weeks to count until we have a result. So a lot of people drop off their mail ballots at the very end. And so those tend to add up. But yeah, I think that listening to Nevada, I mean, I think there is a path there. And the question is Washoe County. I hate to see it as a Democrat red, but with maybe with a mail in ballot, it's able to

turn blue. But I think it's going to be super close. But and I think Nevada is interesting from a 2024 perspective because it's probably the state Biden won that I'm most concerned about. And so that's a place where a lot of work has to get done to get those six electoral votes feeling a little more confident heading into 2020. And by the way, we've been hearing for weeks that Nevada was gone. Yeah, I know. Nobody expected it to be this competitive. So also ahead this morning, veteran Democratic strategist James Carville will join us with his takeaways from last night's elections. Plus, former Congressman Carlos Perbelo is our guest. He predicted last night that we're seeing the beginning of the end of MAGA. Also, Ed, we'll take a look at Tim Ryan's concession speech and why he called it a privilege to concede the race to J.D. Vance

and former President Trump's reaction to last night's results, including celebrating the loss of one Republican candidate. You're watching Morning Joe. We'll be right back. I have a privilege right now, a privilege as someone who this race to J.D. Vance, because the way this country operates is that when you lose an election, you concede and you respect. You respect the will of the people, right? We can't have a system where if you win, it's a legitimate election. And if you lose, someone stole it. That is not how we can move forward in the United States. That's Congressman Tim Ryan conceding the race last night after he lost to Republican J.D. Vance in a hard-fought race. That shouldn't be an extraordinary act, but in these times it's an extraordinary act and an important act.

He said it was a privilege to lose to a guy that he feels like he would have been better to represent the state of Ohio. But this is the way it works. He fought for a year and a half and lost. You concede the race and you move on. Yeah, no, you're right. And by the way, I think this is a guy. He ran a great race. He did. He ran as good of a race as you. And I've always been a big believer that that usually the better political athlete wins. That didn't happen here. J.D. Vance. And I'm not piling on this morning, but I've talked about it before. GOP donors,

GOP activists, they all say he was the laziest, worst candidate that they've ever seen. He would insult donors at roundtable meetings. He was petulant. He was lazy. He didn't like campaigning. And why is this important to bring up? It's important to bring up because it shows that Florida and Ohio are two states Democrats are going to have to think long and hard about before investing a dime in there in 24. They can rebuild the infrastructure. But right now, Texas, Ohio and Florida, please, Democrats, Democrats, it's fool's gold. All right. All right. Focus on Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, 270. But they always say, oh, you know, next next year, Texas is going to swing. No. And let me just say also, Tim ran a great race. And by the way, a lot of people like piling on Beto. Beto runs great races.

His presidential campaign got off to a tough start, but his statewide races are things to admire. He goes, he campaigns, he goes across the state, he confronts. Let me tell you something. He was running uphill nonstop. The whole time. He confronts. Let me tell you something. He was running uphill nonstop the whole time, the whole time. So I have nothing but great things to say about Beto. He lost. He ran a great campaign. Same with Tim Ryan. Yeah. You know what? It just it's not a Democratic state yet. It's not a Democratic state. And the list that you gave, the only one that I would carve out because I've been tracking Texas since I was a state party chairman is Texas.

The Democrats have done a very effective job of winning closer to the ground in Texas. And it's a process. Everyone thinks that you you turn these states overnight. You don't. You have to convince voters to go outside their comfort zone and vote for the opposite party. When my daddy's looking at me like I'm crazy. Right. I'm not doing that. But they've done a good job of winning mayor's races and city council races, sheriff's races, slowly making that turn. I still say that by the time we get to 2028, Texas will be a battleground state in this country for a host of reasons. Maybe not in 24. Right. But the trend lines are there. Florida is red where where Democrats need to recalibrate is Florida. I would not say Texas. They need to rebuild from the ground up. The thing about Texas that's fascinating is, of course, the Dallas suburbs have been breaking

blue. A lot of my friends that I served with in the Republican Congress got wiped out in the suburbs of Dallas. And when I was there, those were the safest seats, right? But I saw a New York Times map. And I'll throw this to both of you guys. It's fascinating. We've been hearing nonstop, oh, all the Hispanics,

because Hispanic men love macho leaders. They're abandoning the Democratic Party. This is historic Texas, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. You look at that map and along the border, it's all blue this year. It's all blue. So if Democrats consolidate, by the way, we heard, oh, the border, all the Hispanics are now like they've got like tattoos of Donald Trump on their chest. No, no. They held their own along the border and they did well in Dallas suburbs. That is something to build on, even though Beto got beaten badly last night. Yeah. I mean, look, let's put Florida over here. And when Democrats have their come to Jesus meeting, they'll have Florida as a big discussion

point. And that's fine. And the Republicans will have Donald Trump, which feels more problematic or harder. But the Hispanic vote across the country is not the same in every state. So this notion that just because in Florida where the Hispanic population, you know, is older, socialism doesn't really play there because there's a lot of first generation, second generation. Because they all escape socialism.

Exactly. It doesn't sound or feel good. And there's also a lot of Spanish language disinformation ads being run in Florida, primarily other parts of the country. The Hispanic vote is young. It's democratic and young. Overwhelmingly. Overwhelmingly in states like Nevada and states like the border, as you said, in states like

Arizona. This is a huge opportunity for Democrats, and there's no indication it's moving toward Republicans. And by the way, this is a district that was flipped back, and we heard so much about this, and this was going to be an example of the red way for Hispanics, not even close. Well, yeah, because I think there was a sense that if there was going to be a red wave, you are going to see massive non-college movement, particularly among black and brown men to the Republicans. And I think outside of Florida, there's no evidence of that at all. And listen, I agree with Michael. It takes a generation

to turn a state from a red state to blue state, blue state to red state. But Texas is on that trajectory. We will get there eventually. Is it 28? Is it 32? And of course, with 32 electoral votes, it completely changes the chess match. Your snapshot look at what happened in Florida, is that a Ron DeSantis phenomenon? Is that a South Florida phenomenon? He lost Miami-Dade by 20 points four years ago and won it by several points last night and flipped, as I said earlier, the Latino vote by 20 points in his favor. Yeah, I don't think we've ever seen a big American county move that quickly. It's a massive change. I don't think it's DeSantis. I think he's got strength down there, no question. So many people have moved into Texas. I think a lot of

those people are Republican voters. And listen, a lot's changed. You there, no question. So many people have moved into Texas. I think a lot of those people are Republican voters. And listen, a lot's changed. You know, remember when Obama won Florida in 12, I think we won it by 50,000 votes. We basically tied the Cuban vote. So big change there. But DeSantis has a story to tell. I think the story he and his team are going to tell Republicans is, look what happened in the oasis of Florida. I can do that for the entire Republican Party elsewhere.

Now, a lot of that's BS, but it's a hell of a story to tell while Trump is licking his wounds, you know, in Mar-a-Lago. It's a strong story to tell. I will say just it comes down to numbers, too, Willie. We're talking about all the people that have moved into Florida pre-COVID, during COVID, post-COVID. So in 2018, when DeSantis almost lost, right, Democrats had about a 250,000 registration advantage, right? This election, Republicans for the first time went ahead and they didn't just go ahead by a couple of votes. Republicans, there are about 300, 350,000 more Republicans than Democrats. That was like a 500, 600,000 vote registration swing. So just all of the trend lines are massive there.

And by the way, I mean, it's it's that's what makes it so hard for him to come back. And that's true for sure. But also in DeSantis's case, voters like the way he handled COVID trying to open up quicker. Especially schools. They like the way he just handled Hurricane Ian just a couple of months ago. Schools is another one. And if you listen to his victory speech last night, it was a lot about this fight against wokeism and move to Florida if you want to live in a free society. And that resonated with a lot of voters. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Just real quick on the point. I just want to go back to a point that was made a little bit earlier about what Republicans do next. If anyone thinks that there's going to be a grand meeting at the Capitol Hill Club of Republican intelligentsia around Donald Trump, it ain't happening. The reality of it is, despite the losses and in some cases massive in terms of the resources that were put into

winning those races, Donald Trump still has a firm grip on a lot of the GOP. And his messaging and his ability to animate the base in a way is going to be a real test for someone like DeSantis behind Florida. And that's the next great battle to come. You saw the president coin the, you know, Ron DeSanctimonious, which actually more to come, right? So you can begin to see where, to your point, the lines are going to be drawn within the GOP over the next few weeks because the 2024 presidential cycle begins tomorrow. So let me just say, if that is in fact the case and Republicans still, you know, still hang tight with Donald, I can tell you a lot of Democrats saying good because he lost in 17. He

lost in 18. He lost in 19. He lost in 20. And I've got to say, and we really will be hearing a lot about this over the next couple of weeks. There is no way for us to adequately explain to you just how historic last night was in an off year election. We've never seen anything like that. You know, you could look at 2002 right after 9-11. You could look at 98 after impeachment. Those don't come close to what happened here. What happened last night has not happened in our lifetime. And proving, and we're going to go to break, but we do need to talk about this because we have a few people in the White House that watch in the morning and they bitch at me

when I complain about the White House. Okay. watch in the morning and they bitch at me when I complain about the White House. Proving what John Kennedy said after the Cuban or the Bay of Pigs. He said success has many fathers, but failure is an orphan. Success has many fathers this morning. And we have yet to talk about the one man everybody would have blamed if Republicans had a good night. And that is Joe Biden. All we've heard is his low approval ratings. We're going to drag down. He's too old. He's too out of touch. He's too unpopular. This is going to be a massive loss for Joe Biden. Not even close. We'll talk about all of that next block. David Plouffe, Jen Psaki, Michael Steele. Thank you all very much for starting us off this morning. We appreciate it.

And coming up, one of the Democrats coming off a big win last night. Senator Michael Bennett of Colorado will be our guest. We're back with much more on this very special edition of Morning Joe after the election. We fight the woke in the legislature. We fight the woke in the schools. We fight the woke in the corporations. We will never, ever surrender to the woke mob. Florida is where woke goes to die. People have come here because our policies work. Leadership matters. We refuse to use polls and put our finger in the wind. Leaders don't follow, they lead. 46 past the hour. Welcome to a special edition of Morning Joe.

We're going over the election results. Do you feel special this morning? I do. Yeah. I feel like, well, what was our motto yesterday? We were going to put it on the mugs. It was a good one. All of this is wrong. All of this is wrong. It's our way to cover ourselves because we said you never know what's going to happen this election. The polls versus the exit polls. Right. Everybody was talking about how this was going to be a massive. Crime, crime, crime. Yeah, a Republican thing.

And we were saying it just didn't feel like a wave election. But then, you know, I said, maybe we're wrong. But Claire, Claire McCaskill is here. Claire, this is going to say. And to my dear friend who pays for his friendship with me every day on Twitter, Eddie Glad Jr. Eddie! My mother, God bless her soul, God rest her soul, always said, Joey, judge yourself by your enemies.

Well, poor Eddie is judged by his friends with me. So I appreciate your friendship. Claire, listen, I don't believe in knocking pollsters because it's an impossible task trying to guess who's going to come out. And over the past couple of cycles, they've underestimated right wing populists. And so we've seen polls way off. Last night, when I started seeing exit polls that said most important issue and abortion was at the top and one media exit poll after another media exit poll is it? Wait a second. Before the election, that was down at five percent, which shocked us all. But it was down at five

percent. And so after the results started coming in, I said, oh, my God, these are the voters that the top of the list for explaining a lot that happened last night. Yeah, last night was a very bad night for Donald Trump, but it was a very good night for women. You know that old saying, hell hath no fury. Right. I do. I don't think people understood how it was visceral. It was, you know, women felt it in their gut. I think men, too, for the women they love and care about.

And men, too. But we have grabbed back freedom for the Democrats with this issue. And by the way, this is not a blue state issue, as we saw in Kansas and Kentucky was going to say. And as we saw in Kentucky last night, this is not a blue state issue. This is an issue that, again, for for 60 percent, 65 percent of Americans really matters. And Republicans didn't just celebrate the overturning of Roe. State legislators started passing just the most extreme pieces of legislation that we saw in exit polls last night. Only 9 percent of Americans support it. Here's Kentucky. Right. And they're not going to stop, Joe.

This is a real problem for the Republican Party. They are going to keep pushing this. There is a segment of the Republican Party that this is the only motivating force in their life as it comes to the government. And they're not going to stop. Yeah. They're going to keep going. They're going to go after medical abortions because now the pill is being used way more frequently than any other method. They're

eventually going to go after IVF. I believe they will actually impact IVF in this country in some states if there is not a federal law passed that codifies Roe. So our headline right now, Eddie, says Dobbs deniers and Donald lift Democrats. Let's talk about the second one of those deniers. Election deniers got crushed last night in governor's races. Crushed. I mean, you still have Arizona that's still, you know, standing out there and maybe she maybe she squeaks out a win. If she does, that's like one out of one out of seven, one out of eight election deniers proved last night. That is a that is a recipe for defeat. Absolutely. So there's another D word. So Dobbs, the deniers, Donald. But who won? What won? Democracy.

So we saw the power of American democracy. Democracy is always in the hands of everyday ordinary people, Joe. When we are in moments of crisis, it depends on everyday ordinary people to step up and take on the responsibility of the republic. And so we saw last night, and we shouldn't get ahead of our skis, to use Mika's favorite phrase. We shouldn't get ahead of our skis here and think that everything has been resolved because everything has not been resolved. What we know is that there wasn't a red wave. What we know is that there wasn't a red wave. What we know is that there wasn't a red tsunami. What we know is that the election deniers who want to erode the fundamental foundations of our republic, that they failed miserably. And Americans said that loud. We have talked. Right. And there have been some grim conversations around this. What does that say to you about about the fact that from coast to coast, Americans rose up and said, yeah, you know what?

Now, we kind of like our democracy the way it is. And and also exit polls last night showed that like 80 percent of Americans were like, yeah, I actually think that elections are fair in America. Well, it lets me know that there are there are Americans who fundamentally believe that our way of life is a good thing. Right. But it doesn't resolve the problems we face. We come out of last night still deeply divided. But it is clear to me that America has decided not to give the reins to mad men and women. Yeah. John Lemire's with us, of course, the host of Way Too Early. You're about to get on a plane to Southeast Asia with the president of the United States. Let's talk about what happened last night, though.

By their own admission, no red wave. We heard that from Republicans in public last night who expected big numbers. When we talk about waves of 2010 or years like that, we're talking 40, 50, 60 seats. This is going to be a handful of seats and a net gain. Republicans likely will control the House of Representatives, but by a small margin. What do Republicans take away from this? And what do Democrats see from the results last night? Well, certainly it's a significant disappointment for Republicans. The mood at Mar-a-Lago where Donald Trump held an election night party, very, very subdued. A lot of his handpicked candidates have gone down to defeat. He also, of course, as we've been talking about this morning, Ron DeSantis emboldened. He seems like he might be the future of the Republican Party. That's not going to sit well with the other

Florida man in this equation. They are disappointed. Yes, they still may keep the House, but it will be a slim margin. And look, even if he's winning the House, obviously we'll stall the Biden legislative agenda. They can open up a slew of investigations. They'll have the power of the subpoena. Things will get messy, but it's nowhere near what they thought. Democrats are emboldened.

It's obviously Nevada's still out there. The report's coming in. Their vote's being counted. That's really close. But if the Dems are able to hang on there and keep Arizona, which is looking good, then they'll have control of the Senate even without a potential. And by the way, for Supreme Court selections, it's absolutely

critical. Absolutely. If you keep the Senate, you can confirm your judges. You can get your cabinet members confirmed. And yes, if a SCOTUS nomination opens up, vacancy opens up, you can do that, too. So legislation might slow for Biden, but there's no question, especially if they keep the Senate. He's a big winner here. He steps onto that flight to Air Force One for a couple of summits with a pep in his step. And there have been some talk that he might not do the traditional day after midterm news conference. I wouldn't be surprised. An advisor close to Biden tells NBC News the president and his allies believe that the results are clearly better than they could have been. And he tweeted a photo of himself last night on the phone congratulating Democratic winners.

And I think, Joe, one of the things since in the weeks leading up to this election, we've been and Claire might might agree, concerned about the performance of some Democratic candidates and still are. But it does show that voters, they decided to participate in this as well in a big way when it comes to democracy, when it comes to, you know what, I'm going to believe in this election and I'm going to believe in our election process and I'm going to participate in this democracy because this is our country. And look at Pennsylvania, Claire. I mean, we all saw the Fetterman-Oz debate. And Fetterman, I'll say it again, clearly challenged. It was the guy, obviously, his communication was impaired. And he showed up. And he showed up.

And I think he got a lot of points for that. Yeah. He was in a situation, I'm sure, was nervous. It probably made his condition worse. And that's really the last we saw. But you see clips on local Pittsburgh stations and Philly stations of him rallying in the last week. Big, booming voice, confidence, joking. That's what voters in Pennsylvania saw. A very strong, very connected

John Fetterman. And it made the difference in the end. It did. And, you know, John Fetterman was the essence of authenticity. Right. Yeah. He is comfortable in his own skin. He was comfortable. Hey, I wear a hoodie and shorts. I'm going to wear a hoodie and shorts. Deal with it. And please don't tell my kids that. OK, I'm just telling you. And meanwhile, you know, we about Mr. Crudite. And not only was he Mr. Crudite on the Saturday before the election, he didn't even know the Steelers had a bye week. Now, come on. And, you know, that is political malpractice in Pennsylvania. No, it is. That shows you he is not a Pennsylvanian.

No, that is we we talked about it. That's like Martha Coakley, like mispronouncing a few Red Sox names and saying, I think I've been to Fenway once. I'm not sure what is that. Is is that an open market? I mean, it didn't work well, by the way, Massachusetts, first woman governor last week. Yes, they did. That was an easy pickup for Dems there. But you're right, we joked about the Fenway Park thing and the Steelers' bye week, but it reinforced the perception that he was not of Pennsylvania, that he was from somewhere else.

He didn't understand what Pennsylvanians care about. And we know in the Keystone State, Steelers, Eagles, that comes first and second. Every other matter is after that. And it just it showed that Oz wasn't one of them. And Fetterman proved it down the stretch that he was definitely one last point. John was talking about Donald Trump not going to be happy with what happened last night, especially Ron DeSantis. Here's how he was feeling yesterday. Trump did an interview and he said of Ron DeSantis, if he did run, I will tell you things about him that will not be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who's really running his

campaign. Donald Trump is very worried. He's very scared of Ron DeSantis. He's so been there. He really hates him. And that was a coronation last night. I mean, you can't overstate how massive DeSantis's victory was. And you also can't overstate the contrast between Ron DeSantis's last night and Donald Trump's.

You had a guy who, like, had a historic victory. And with Donald Trump, and I'm not saying this being glib, you had a guy that lost yet again. This guy just keeps losing. And flailing on social media, criticizing candidates that he had previously backed because they lost, trying to absolve himself of any responsibility. Eddie Glaude Jr., Claire McCaskill, Jonathan Lemire, thank you all very much. And still ahead on this very special broadcast of Morning Joe, we're going to bring in Bob Woodward, Eugene Robinson and John Meacham. Plus, a live report from Florida where Republicans captured an historic sweep of every statewide office yesterday. We'll also go live to Arizona where the race for U.S. Senate is still too early to call. And the Republican nominee trailing in a tight race for governor is making claims of fraud.

Who's surprised? We'll be right back.