Morning Joe - Morning Joe 2/28/24

Episode Date: February 28, 2024

Biden, Trump win Michigan primaries

There are enough voters who understand the difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. But also, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris have a record to run on. The uncommitted campaign is part of the process, right? Like, one of the reasons we wanted to be an early state was to give people the opportunity to have their voices heard early in this process. And that's what they've done. And you see this president's listening. You know, yesterday he started talking about a ceasefire.

He's listening. When we participate like this in the primary, it doesn't mean that they're not going to be voting for Joe Biden in November. We're going to roll this momentum into a victory in November for the president. And that is the chair of the Michigan Democratic Party speaking with NBC News. Before yesterday's results came in for the state's primary, they're expressing confidence Democrats will turn out for Joe Biden in November, despite a sizable protest vote last night. As expected, President Biden did win the state of Michigan easily last night, but with more than 100,000 people casting ballots for uncommitted, mostly in protest over his

handling of the Israel-Hamas war. On the Republican side, Donald Trump racked up another big victory over Nikki Haley, but with some big warning signs for him there as well. Good morning. Welcome to Morning Joe. It is Wednesday, February 28th. With us this morning, the host of Way Too Early, White House bureau chief of Politico, Jonathan Lemire, U.S. special correspondent for BBC News, Katty Kaye, columnist and associate editor for The Washington Post, David Ignatius, assistant managing editor and Washington bureau Chief for The New York Times, Elizabeth Bumiller.

And Deputy Managing Editor for Politics at Politico, Sam Stein. Good morning to you all. So, Joe, we're going to have Steve Kornacki. He's waiting over at the board. Break down the numbers for us. But a couple of headlines. A big uncommitted vote against Joe Biden. But also, again, when you look at Donald Trump, Nikki Haley winning almost 300000 votes in the state of Michigan, taking them away in the Republican Party from Donald Trump.

Well, and again, we talked about this yesterday. This is democracy. If there's a time that you're in Michigan and you want Donald Trump to be stopped, but you want to send a message to Joe Biden, you want to send a message to the White House regarding their position on the Middle East and Israel and Gaza. It's a perfect time to do it. And what did we hear? We heard the leader of the Michigan Democratic Party saying, this is what we're doing. And this is a wonderful time to do it. We are all aligned and want to see Donald Trump beaten and Joe Biden want to see him win in the fall. The same can't be said, though, can it, Willie, for for Donald Trump? Now he has over a quarter of the vote voting against him. And what you hear from supporters of Nikki Haley are that their votes are not transferable.

They're not voting for Donald Trump. You hear time and time and again, Republicans saying they're moving away from Trump. Also, it's important to remember all the people like me that were once members of the Republican Party that left and people like me saying they would never vote for Donald Trump and never vote for anybody that ever supported Donald Trump for one day. So, again, you have a lot of people. This is this is a Republican Party that keeps shrinking because of Donald Trump. And even inside of that shell of the old Republican Party, you've got whether it's 25 percent or 30 or 40 percent saying they're not going to vote for Donald Trump. That's going to have impact in the fall.

Yeah. I mean, barring a seismic event, Donald Trump is going to be the Republican nominee. But in state after state after state, yes, his margin last night was bigger over Nikki Haley than it's been. But her winning almost 300,000 votes tells you a lot about where the Republican Party is. That's a big chunk of the party, nearly 30% last night, saying we're not going along for the ride this time with Donald Trump. So where do those votes go in the general this time with Donald Trump. So where do

those votes go in the general election is a big question. Let's go to the big board. NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki breaking down the numbers. And Steve, let's start there in the Republican Party. What did you see last night? Yeah, I mean, look, overall here, there are still a few votes to come in in Michigan. These numbers might change just a little bit. But Trump here, obviously, 68 percent, Haley down at 26 and a half percent. I think there's a couple of things noteworthy about it. One, obviously, you had that Haley number in New Hampshire. She got 43 percent in South Carolina. She got 40. She had made this 40 percent idea of a 40 percent in Republican primary break from Trump for her. She made that a big part of her message that falls now into the

mid 20s last night. Why did it fall into the mid 20s after being around 40 in the first two contests? Well, with the contours of Haley's support, or for that matter, Trump's opposition in these Republican primaries so far has been very clear demographically. It has tracked very closely with educational attainment, particularly among white voters. That is to say, white voters with at least a four-year college degree have been the most Trump-resistant and the most willing to go and vote for Nikki Haley. Add in white voters with college degrees who live in suburbs, who live in affluent areas. That is where we've seen Haley driving up her biggest numbers in New Hampshire and in South Carolina. Now, take it to Michigan last night. Where were where are those areas on this map? I'll show you a big one right here. This is Oakland County. This by itself is like 15 percent

of the vote statewide in this primary. And you can see here Donald Trump by nearly 30 points over Nikki Haley. This is of the two major northern suburbs of Detroit, suburban counties. You got Oakland County and you got Macomb County. Macomb County is the classic blue collar suburb built, you know, sort of by the UAW, by the auto workers. That has been in the general election and in primaries Trump country. But Oakland County is the big white collar suburb with significant growth, higher incomes, higher levels of college degrees. Again, the exact kind of place where Nikki Haley was getting real good numbers in South Carolina and New Hampshire to bring her up to 40. She didn't do that last night here in Oakland

County. This was one of her big opportunity counties. If she wanted to replicate those earlier performances, fell to just 33 percent here. I think even more striking for Haley, you look down in Washtenaw County, University of Michigan, Eastern Michigan, Michigan University, affluence. All these things I'm talking about that are her demographic wheelhouse. And she couldn't even win here. This is her best county in the state, her absolute best county of Michigan's 83 counties is right here. She got forty four seven. And that's only about a point and a half above what she got in New Hampshire statewide. So you could see just slippage here for Haley. And one other thing I think to

keep in mind here, too, is significant to interpreting these primary results on the Republican side, I think, has been the rules so far in the three primaries where Trump and Haley have gone one on one. That is New Hampshire. That is South Carolina. And that is Michigan. And they have all allowed for the mass participation of non-Republican voters. And I think there's a lot of sort of suggestive evidence in the results so far that that has been a significant part of Haley's support in these states. And it can come and a lot of it may very well be coming from non-Republicans who didn't vote for Trump in 2020, didn't vote for Trump in 2016, have no intention, as you were just talking about, of voting for Trump in 2024. But because the rules allow them to participate and because

their energy to vote against Donald Trump is off the charts high, there's, I think, a lot of reason to suspect they're coming into these Republican primaries just for the chance to vote against Donald Trump. So in terms of what that means for November, I don't know. But I did think it's significant last night, as I said, that Haley fell from the low 40s down to the mid 20s. And if that if what I was just describing is or has been a phenomenon so far, it may be that it's cooling a bit as we get away from these contests like New Hampshire, where they had months to campaign South Carolina, where they had a month. Now we're getting into the ones where they go. You're in for a day. You campaign, you go to the next state. You have multiple state primaries. Is that effect fading a bit? Because, again, in Michigan, no party

registration. You know, anybody could vote in this primary yesterday. That was just the same rule you had in South Carolina, but a very different result. Yeah. Thanks, Steve. We'll be right back with you for the Democratic results. But, you know, Sam, this is very simple. It's open primaries versus closed primaries. And we've been saying all along this election is going to be won not across the fruited plains of America. It's going to be won in the suburbs of Atlanta, Philadelphia, Detroit and Milwaukee. And here we have in Detroit again, I don't know, maybe people that run for office and are basically three time incumbents, basically. Maybe they're happy losing 45 percent of their own party's vote in one county in the suburbs and 33 percent another. But I will tell you, I would be like I would be hiding under the

sheets if I were a politician. And those were the results the next day in the area. I have to win to win Michigan and win the presidency. Right. These are these are flashing red lights for Donald Trump. And his people can whistle past the graveyard all they want. They can insult Nikki Haley all they want. Donald Trump can talk about how badly he's going to beat Barack Obama in the fall all he wants. These aren't good numbers. Barack Obama. Yes, I think they are warning signs for obvious reasons.

I mean, Donald Trump, he's dependent on one thing really right now, which is Joe Biden not being able to turn out the vote because Donald Trump, he clearly has a ceiling, right? He's not making overtures to win over these voters. He's not even trying to be nice or magnanimous to Nikki Haley. He didn't mention her for a day, but he went back to attacking her on Sunday. It's not a campaign that's trying to expand the tent. It's a campaign that is what it is. It's Donald Trump. So his path to the general election

really depends on Biden's coalition kind of fracturing and falling apart. And it's kind of a race to the bottom there. It will be in the suburbs if that's the case. That's where the election will come down to because, frankly, that's the main competition between the two. And Donald Trump, for two cycles now,

has lost the suburbs over and over again, and Republicans too. So what are they doing about it? And frankly, I haven't seen much from the Republican Party to try to fix this. If anything, what you've seen, well, I don't know if I want to say that, because the response to the IVF ruling, for instance, shows that they recognize they have a problem. The question is, what will they do about it? And I don't know quite yet what they're going to do about it legislatively or politically, because the course correction will not come from Trump.

Well, let me tell you, if I'm wanting to unite a party, and I think in the end I'm going to win, you go out and you say, Nikki Haley, wow, let's give her a hand. She just, she's an incredible candidate. And man, I'm going to want her to be part of my administration. If she'll be back. No. What I'm doing here is what politicians have done for thousands of years.

It's called expanding the coalition. Yes, it's called winning. And so he can't do it. And so, no, he's not being nice. He's not being magnanimous. And let's stay, by the way, on the powder blue side, the spring side of the morning. Let's stay there. Elizabeth, I want us to stop for just one minute, because since Donald Trump came onto the scene in June 2015, you have a Republican doing something that no other Republican has done. Let me give Nikki Haley her due. We all should.

I know, yes, she should have done this before. She should have done that before. But Nikki Haley is taking the incoming from Donald Trump. As Barack Obama would motion, she's doing that. And she's going state by state by state. This is something Marco Rubio is too much of a coward to do. This is something that Rand Paul was too much of a coward to do. We can take it all the way through 2024. Nikki Haley's keeping her head down and she's saying, I'm going to keep going. I'm going to keep going harder at him and let's see what happens.

That's Donald Trump hasn't had to deal with that yet in his political career. He's not taking it well. I mean, she's she's she's really tough, tougher than the men have been so far. She has enough money to go for some time at least. And she's you know, doesn't look good for her this year. But obviously she's looking to 2028. And the other thing I wanted to say about Donald Trump, not only is he not being nice to her, he's being the things he has said about her, about her husband, about her marriage. I mean, it is a new low even for Donald Trump, the way he is going after her personally and her husband, who is a veteran. Serving something Donald Trump would not know anything about. So that is what is kind of extraordinary. Yeah. Mr. Mr. Bone. And the other thing, of course, I know we've discussed this before, but in South Carolina, it was so interesting.

He was supposed to win by 30 points. He won by 20. I guess a lot of big votes. But so many of Nikki Haley's voters said they would never vote for Donald Trump, like 60 percent. So, again, big warning sign for him. By the way, a programming note, Alex tells me that I was being covered when I made the Barack Obama motion. So that's what we were saying. That's what Nikki Haley's doing, Willie Geist. And it is, it's driving Donald Trump a little bit crazy,

a little bit crazier. And in fairness, Barack Obama borrowed that from Jay-Z. Third off your shoulder, there's a whole line of succession there. So let's talk about the Democratic side for just a minute here. Steve, the story of the night, that uncommitted vote we did here at the top of the show from the state's party chair inside the Democratic Party saying, we want to send a message here. The policy and United States unconditional support of Israel needs to stop. They're calling for a full ceasefire, which isn't going to happen, but clearly making a point, but saying, look, we're not going to go vote for Donald Trump.

He's proposed to get a Muslim ban. So we're not going to vote for that guy. But something needs to change if you want our vote in November. Yeah. So it's interesting. What you're seeing here, actually, are the delegate results. Now, I'm not quite sure, to be honest with you, why I can't get the overall statewide vote up here. But the delegate vote is worth lingering on for a minute. Obviously, look, Joe Biden is taking currently all of the delegates

that have been allocated, but all of the delegates have not yet been allocated in Michigan. And so while it is an overwhelming I mean, you know, the headline is an overwhelming victory for Joe Biden here, around 80 percent of the vote. But that question of uncommitted, we were talking about some very particular places, the two types of places we wanted to see how that was doing were, number one, places with large Arab-American populations, large Muslim-American populations. And then, number two, places with large college populations, college students, college faculty and staff. We've seen all sorts of activism on college campuses against Joe Biden's Israel Hamas policy. So would that translate into uncommitted votes in that kind of a place, too?

So what were the test counties for this? The big one is the biggest one in the state, Wayne County, where Detroit is. And we don't have all the vote in in Wayne County. But Detroit is not really the story in Wayne County. It's one city, Dearborn, which has one hundred ten thousand people and which is in Wayne County. Dearborn is a majority Arab American county. It has the largest concentration per capita of Muslim Americans of any city in the United States. And what happened in Dearborn last night? Uncommitted beat Donald Trump in Dearborn last night by a 56 to 41 percent total 15 point victory for uncommitted. Now, again, you see what that translates into county wide. Not much. But I'll show you as well. That's that's Dearborn with a large Arab-American population. And then you go next door to

Washtenaw, which we were just talking about on the Republican side, University of Michigan, Eastern Michigan University, college faculty, all the factors we're talking about here, an uncommitted landing at about 17 percent right here in Washtenaw County. Now, when we get to that delegate question, OK, where it's zero for uncommitted right now, the rules on the Democratic side are very different than the Republican side. All you have to do to start collecting delegates is hit 15 percent of the vote either statewide or within a congressional district in a state. And because that uncommitted vote, the strongest uncommitted vote is concentrated in a relatively small geographic area. I just showed you it's part of Wayne County and Washtenaw County. So what does this mean in terms of delegates? Well, there's a Washtenaw County based congressional district, and it looks

like not for sure yet, but it looks like uncommitted is going to pick up a delegate there. And then Dearborn itself is entirely included in Michigan's 12th congressional district. That's where Rashida Tlaib represents in Congress. And again, based on that Dearborn showing a delegate there, not been allocated yet, but certainly seems a distinct possibility in the 13th district, which is a Detroit based district, but also has a significant Arab Muslim American population. It looks like that 15 percent threshold could be clear there. So we may nothing official yet, but we may be in a situation where uncommitted does walk away with this from this with three delegates to the Democratic National Convention. Now, that's a drop in the ocean when you're talking about the

delegate race and everything. But that may be what the uncommitted side got out of this. And of course, the big question, the question the uncommitted folks want people asking off this result is, hey, you know, go back to in 2020, it was one hundred fifty thousand vote margin in the state for Biden. But in 2016, Trump only won it by 11,000. And the uncommitted folks want Democrats to see those numbers and say, hey, that could make all the difference. Better get better, get good with those voters. And that uncommitted movement believes it has made its point last night with a big number moving on to Minnesota on Super Tuesday, Washington state and some other places to continue to do that. NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki.

Steve, thanks as always. So message received, Jonathan Lemire, by the Biden White House, the campaign last night. Yeah, they knew this was coming. And as just chronicled, I think the warning signs are more significant for Donald Trump. But what happened last night also caught the Biden team's attention. A few notes here. The first of all, the the the movement here, the uncommitted movement set a threshold of 10,000 votes. That was very smart because they easily eclipsed that and now they've generated more buzz. They tied it to the margin between Biden, Trump and Clinton back in 2016. We knew the number would be bigger. Some context, though. The last time a Democratic president ran for reelection, that was Barack Obama in 2012.

There was 11 percent of the vote in Michigan uncommitted. So that's a pretty similar number here. But the Biden re-election team knows they've got an issue in Michigan with populations, the Arab American population, the Muslim American population. They do believe some of those votes will come home in November, particularly if the war in Gaza has faded from the headlines, if there is a ceasefire in place, if the conflict has stopped. But they also know for some of those voters, this was deeply personal. They're deeply angry. in Gaza has faded from the headlines. If there is a ceasefire in place, if the conflict has stopped. But they also know some of those for some of those voters, this was deeply personal. They're deeply angry. They're not going to come back. They're either going to stay home or they're going to find a third party candidate. They're not going to vote for Trump,

but they won't be votes that Biden needs. So therefore, his team already looking to other paths because they know how important Michigan is. It's more or less a must win for him in November. And Joe, just a couple of days ago, as we discussed yesterday, President Biden was in this very building eating ice cream, suggesting that a temporary ceasefire was imminent yesterday, both the Israelis and Hamas pouring some cold water on that optimism. Yeah. By the way, did you go back, Willie, and look at the black and white footage of FDR giving a speech on December the 8th?

The chocolate cone gets lost. Look at the black and white footage of FDR giving a speech on December the 8th. The chocolate cone gets lost. Chocolate cone gets lost with the wood behind it, right, on the lectern. But he's doing it. So this has happened before. Great moments and nice greetings. Yes, it happens. So, David, it's not just, though, this war and what's happening in Gaza is not just impacting Arab Americans. It's obviously impacting disproportionately younger Americans. You see numbers that are

breaking dramatically. And if you look at young men who are becoming more Republican, for a lot of social reasons we can explain in the coming months. That's one thing. But even young women who should be breaking hard, given what's happened with Roe and Dobbs and then Dobbs, it's not happening yet. Long way to go. But this does present a two front challenge for Biden. So I thought this the Michigan primary showed what each candidate's biggest problem is for Trump. It is this hard group of never Trumpers, disaffected voters who are voting for Haley. It's nowhere near majority rolls through each primary, but they're there for Biden. this problem of disaffection, disinterest, young voters who don't like his views on the Gaza war, who just kind of tune out, think he's too old. And so I think for each of them, Michigan highlighted the theme that we'll see now

rolling through the campaign. My own feeling is that Biden did better on the uncommitted problem, notwithstanding the Dearborn results, which are predictable, than I might have thought. Sometimes when you talk to young Democrats, you think, wow, they're just so angry. You know, nobody's going to turn out for it. That isn't the case. You can see, Joe, why the White House is so focused on, I almost want to say desperate, to get this hostage deal in the Gaza war and a ceasefire at a moment where you can begin to de-escalate because they know there is building

in the Democratic Party and in the world this sense that this war just can't go on. The United States is aiding Israel in something that, to a lot of the world sees as unjust. So I think President Biden's it's coming next week. It's coming. You couldn't get an Israeli to agree with that. But you sure had the president expressing enthusiasm. And if they if they get that, I think they'll really begin to diffuse that issue successfully. We will see the de-escalation that they want. It's fascinating also, these numbers last night for Democrats, about 12, 13 percent for Joe Biden, uncommitted. Barack Obama in 2012 had 10.7 percent. So there's nothing radical or revolutionary about that. And Barack Obama did pretty well in the fall. Katty, Yesterday we were talking about the steps that the Biden administration was making,

the news that you actually had the cabinet, the Palestinian Authority cabinet go, the White House people and the national security staff trying to find a replacement for Abbas, trying to find leadership that they can build a two-state solution around. And this isn't, obviously, this is not just pressure from American voters. There are Arab allies that are working around the clock saying, we're going to be side by side with you to make this two-state solution happen. But we've got to get the right people. We've got to do this the right way.

And we've got to get moving. So it's fascinating. The Biden administration is moving forward on all fronts and are working tirelessly around the clock. I suspect, you know, at some point in that Yahoo goes and great gains are made. But the question is the timing. Will it happen before November? Will it happen in time? As quick as possible from the White House's point of view, looking at Michigan, I mean, one difference between last night in Michigan and 2012 and Barack Obama is that there wasn't in 2012 one coalescing clear reason why people were voting uncommitted, which there is at the moment. And it is that issue of Gaza that needs to be resolved in order to make those uncommitted voters jump back onto the Biden train. And I think to some extent for Palestinian-Americans and Arab-Americans, the damage has already been done and is going to be hard to rectify. And it was those early missteps that they accused the administration of making early on when Joe Biden went and embraced Netanyahu.

Arab leaders wouldn't see him when he questioned. I've heard this from Arab Americans. Why did he question the number of children who are being killed? Why did he go out early on a limb and question those Hamas health authority numbers? Yes, we get the numbers from the Hamas health authority. But we knew at that stage that thousands of children were being killed or being left orphans. And I think it's that sense that the administration was callous about it until that turning point where Tony Blinken said he looked into the eyes of children in Gaza and saw his own children. So I don't know how much catch up they can make with some of this group that the damage has already been done. And if you've lost family members, you're not going to

forget that. Right. Come November. There are again, there are six months to talk to most of the voters there. And to point out the fact that Joe Biden very early on, David, was also criticizing extremists on the West Bank. He made sure to put that into a bilat he was having at the beginning of this war. And he's going to have to continue doing that. But it seems to me because we're talking and a lot of people may be thinking, oh, my God, we're just conducting a foreign policy for the sake of voters in a couple of counties in Michigan. Except it's Michigan. It's just not the case, though.

What is happening right now in Gaza is bad for the United States because we are seen as Israel's sponsor all over the world. And I've got to say for the Israelis, more importantly, it's bad for Israel. Israel has to understand this isn't hyperbole. They are losing an entire generation of young Americans who will not be there to support them 5, 10, 20 years from now when they become policymakers, unless we move toward a two state solution. Maybe they think they can tell the world to go to hell, but all they're doing is condemning themselves to a bleak future, a bleaker future where they're going to be completely isolated in the region and the world unless they do something dramatic soon. So you could argue that Bibi Netanyahu, the prime minister, began this process

of making Israel a more partisan issue in America back under President Obama when he appealed directly to Republicans and many Democrats began to feel, gee, you know, our traditional loyalty to Israel. Maybe that's not so strong. Are you saying he didn't rise above the political fray? So I only ask that. That's a question. He is Netanyahu retweeted a Donald Trump nasty tweet about Morning Joe. And I looked at it and I laughed and I said, you've got Hamas story about and you're going on Twitter to attack Morning Joe. Politics is local. Netanyahu is a master politician. He doesn't seem to understand that he is on a collision

course with the United States president and they are running out of options. I mean, you know, they have an option to sharpen rhetorical differences. They've already begun that. They have an option to not exercise the U.S. veto the next time a resolution is before the Security Council to call for a ceasefire. We're closer to that than Bibi seems to realize. And we have an option to begin to condition U.S. weapons to Israel on their actions. So Bibi's taken them into territory. I would have said six months ago, I couldn't imagine getting to that point. We're there now. Those are the

choices. But the other thing is that Netanyahu and Biden are in a complete, their time frame is completely working against each other. Netanyahu wants to stay in office as long as he possibly can because the minute, and to keep the war going, because the minute the war is over, he will face his fate and possibly be removed from office. And Biden, obviously. And thrown in jail. Right. And Biden is obviously, as we've discussed, needs to get this war over tomorrow. I just think on the U.S. policymaking ground, I mean, 10, 20 years from now, you're going to see a fairly wild shift between a Democratic administration and a Republican administration. Just look at the polls right now. The perception of Israel among Democratic voters has plummeted. And it used to not be that way.

It was fairly consensus, a bipartisan consensus around that. Right. And that is primarily of Netanyahu's making. I mean, coming to the U.S. Congress, giving a speech against the Iran nuclear deal may have been a strategic move in the moment, but I think there's long-term ramifications for that. Yeah. And, you know, you know, Willie, the damage that's being done is being done every day by Netanyahu. We can go back and look at the damage that he did leading up to the war in 2018, knowing the funding of Hamas sources and he and Trump refusing to cut them off in 2018. His person going to Doha and actually having Qatar ask, hey, do you want us

to keep funding Hamas a couple of weeks before the attacks? He said yes. He had the war plans a year beforehand. His administration did. Did nothing to prepare for it. They were woefully ill-equipped and shamelessly, shamefully negligent the day of, watching as people got raped, burned, killed, babies shot, sometimes taking six, seven, eight, ten hours to go down and save their own people. And you can go on and on. But now the Israeli people are allowing staying power, a man who is causing generational damage to Israel's cause on the globe.

And the question is, when are they going to remove him from office and move forward with a new leader that can actually start healing some of these wounds? And the fact of the matter is, from the American point of view, we can say all the right things. President Biden can put pressure on the prime minister privately. Prime Minister Netanyahu can say, yes, we appreciate our friendship with the United States. It's our strongest ally. Thank you for support. But we're going to do what we're going to do. We were attacked on October 7th and we're going to go in and there are going to be civilian deaths because Hamas hides behind civilians. Everything we know Netanyahu, Jonathan Lemire, is not going to change his course because Joe Biden raised his voice at him in a phone call. He's moving forward with what he calls the rooting out of Hamas. Yeah, we've seen the pressure from the White House only increase in recent weeks,

both behind the scenes, but also in public from the president, yes, but more so from the Secretary of State, from the Secretary of Defense, National Security Advisor and others. And the stern warnings, particularly as Netanyahu considers this RAFA campaign, which would still be likely a few weeks off if it were to happen. But we heard from the prime minister just the other day that, yes, he says that we could talk about a ceasefire. We could talk about hostages being released. We're not going to offer you a permanent end to this war. The Rafah operation is going to happen at some point. And the U.S. and the U.N. and other organizations have said, well, then you've got to safeguard those civilians there.

The Israelis don't seem all that interested in doing so. And if they don't, and the civilian toll in the humanitarian crisis only grows, then yes, not only is it just more and more of a global backlash for Israel, as just discussed, but it will also blow back potentially on the President Biden here at home, who's been so staunch in support of Israel. And that could be a real moment where there might need to be a breaking point in terms of conditions of aid and military assistance. In other words, yes, Joe. Hey, Jonathan, there is a humanitarian crisis going on in Gaza right now. It is unspeakable. It's horrible. There is an unspeakable humanitarian crisis going on in Gaza right now. There is starvation. There are people reports that are people are so thirsty they're drinking salt water. The families, entire families living in tents.

They've been told to go to the southern part of Gaza. Now they're being told, go back to the northern part of Gaza where there are no services, there are no supplies. There's nothing. It is a massive humanitarian crisis. And so us just saying, my bad, that's not going to get it. I think I think the Biden administration understands that. But again, the the the devastation to the people of Gaza, as well as to Israel diplomatically,

again, not for the next six weeks, not for the next six months. This isn't something people are going to forget in six months, what they're doing right now, especially if they do this final push. This will be with Israel for a generation, and the ramifications will be absolutely brutal in the United States, with younger voters, and in Europe. Could not agree more. Everything you said is right about what happens next for Israel, how it's perceived both here in the United States and around the globe.

It's more just a limit to what President Biden and his team can do. They can't oust Netanyahu. There's only so much pressure they can apply. They can vote against them at the end of security counts. You're right. They haven't reached that point yet. And the question is, when will that happen? Or when do they start putting conditions on aid they're sending? Or when do they simply stop selling

military supplies or sending military supplies to Israel? There have been some conversations about that, but they simply haven't reached that point yet. I think there is a hope of the administration that some sort of ceasefire deal can be struck, ideally in the next week or two. And that could be a pivot point. If it doesn't, though, if Hamas and Israel can't come together on the ceasefire hostage deal, then the pressure will only increase on the White House to do something. And certainly things would just get harder here at home for President Biden as well. Much more on this in just a moment when Richard Haass joins the table. Also ahead on Morning Joe, congressional leaders came out of a meeting with President Biden at the

White House yesterday with a unified message for House Speaker Mike Johnson. Avoid the government shutdown looming this Friday. Well, the latest from Capitol Hill ahead of that deadline. Also, where things stand on USAID for Ukraine and Israel as the Ukrainians called desperately for that help. Now, plus, House Republicans are set to question Hunter Biden today as part of their impeachment inquiry into the president. We'll be joined by two Democrats on the Oversight Committee ahead of that closed door deposition. You're watching Morning Joe on a busy Wednesday morning. We'll be right back. So you don't know where you're going, but you want to talk. We're hearing people of all parties and all persuasions in all cities and all states who feel this acutely. They understand the catastrophe at the border is affecting everyone. And it is top of mind for all the American people

for that reason. But again, the first priority of the country is our border and making sure it's secure. I believe the president can take executive authority right now today to change that. And I told him that again today in person, as I've said to him many times publicly and privately over the last several weeks, it's time for action. This commercial brought to you by the reelect Joe Biden campaign and the DNC, because I'm telling you, I talked about this a little bit yesterday, Willie, about the fact that for the first time I was talking to a Trump supporter earlier this week and they were going through all the issues and I sat there politely eating my ice cream cone. Yeah, yeah. Eating my ice cream cone. And they got to the border. And at that point,

I I stopped just sort of doing the incoming and I put my finger in his chest and I said, hey, that's a bunch of malarkey because it is. And I actually started to lean in and he knew where I was going. He stopped. He said, well, let's let's talk about something else. I'm telling you, Mike Johnson does not realize that he has somehow neutralized after years and years of policy mistakes by Democrats. He's neutralized the issue of the southern border and he's allowing fentanyl to flood in. He is allowing illegal immigrants to flood in because he and Donald Trump have said we don't want the toughest border bill in the past 40 years. And there you have the speaker and Mike Johnson, as they say. But but yeah, Johnson got teamed up on inside that meeting by everybody, Republicans and Democrats alike saying, what are you doing, kid? It was kind of embarrassing reports from from inside that he just was overmatched and alone.

Yeah. Take up the spending bill. We're not doing a shutdown. And by the way, we gave you the best possible immigration deal that you're ever going to get. By the way, Joe, I also like that you two are having questions shouted at you at the Baskin Robbins when you go out, just like the president did the other day, the assembled media going after you. That the bite we just heard was Speaker Johnson yesterday. That was outside the White House after the meeting Joe's talking about between President Biden, Vice President Harris, congressional leaders. That was about government funding and that Senate passed for an aid package. So first of all, John, I guess we can take the shutdown Friday at midnight looking a

little better today. There seems to be some pressure on him to get through that moment and get something short term passed. But also these larger questions of, as we say all the time, voters are really smart. And when you're saying we've got to do something on the border, they know that there was something done on the border in a bipartisan fashion two weeks ago. So you can't complain that there's nothing being done. I'm also struck there by the footage. President Biden really has the fire roaring in the Oval Office. Look at that. It was pretty mild in D.C. yesterday. And yet he's trying to sweat out the Republicans, I guess. Tremendous visual there. Yes. Good news and bad news in terms of outcomes from that meeting. There seems to be an agreement about the government

shutdown that everyone seems to want to avoid that, even Speaker Johnson afterwards saying so. Now, mechanics still have to get done. We know there's members of the far right in the House, those some Republicans who would rather turn the lights off, send home. They want to make a political point. It seems like Johnson, though, is at least wants would be willing to do a continuing resolution to kick this even just a couple of weeks to avoid clearing this Super Tuesday, clearing the State of the Union, and then address it again. But at least for now, there is still that March 1st deadline. But Joe, the bigger, the sense of disconnect was, of course, on Ukraine. Senator Schumer came out afterwards, spoke to reporters outside the West

Wing and said it was one of the most intense discussions he's ever been a part of. And it was. It was four or five on one. The president, the vice president, Schumer and yes, McConnell, who's kind of been quiet lately on Ukraine. He wasn't yesterday. He was forceful. And they all ganged up on Johnson and said this has to get done. But Johnson, to this point, not committing to do it. And voters, to Willie's point, probably can see through his bluff on the border. Well, and when Mitch McConnell is leaning in on the House Republican speaker, it's not just Mitch McConnell. It's Mitch McConnell, John Thune.

It's a leadership of the House Republicans. Yeah, this is a Republican party. As well as Republicans in the House that are running the committee. Against a very small portion, the far right Republicans, the Marjorie Taylor Greens, the Matt Gaetz's. We know who they are. And that is what is amazing is Johnson came out looking of trying to put on a brave front. But, you know, we are told that he really they really came down on him. And that was interesting to me is that after the other leaders had left, Biden pulled him aside and spoke to him.

And I would very much like to know what Biden said to him, but I'm sure it was let look, man, do you want to go down as the person who gave Ukraine to Putin? I imagine that's something like that. Sam, what did he say to him? Yeah. What do you know? I wish I was there. He's probably said, hey, man, what do you think of the fire? No, that was for you. No, it was it I wanted to spell you out. No, it was about Ukraine. And obviously, everyone knows what's going on here. Mike Johnson is a stopgap for not just a Ukraine bill, but the National Security Supplemental includes funding for Israel, too, and Taiwan. And Johnson's position is, frankly, very hard to defend, if not completely untenable, because he did not take up that border bill that

he's now asking for in terms of policy vis-a-vis executive action. The question really is, what is the sort of off-ramp for Johnson, right? I mean, as much pressure is being applied in these private meetings, including by McConnell, there's not an off-ramp. And if he does bring this up to the floor, he will lose his discharge potential. Well, yes, that's that's the workaround of Johnson. If he were to bring up the national security supplemental, you know, obviously he would be risking his speakership. We can make the case that that's worth it. He obviously doesn't feel that way. There hasn't really been a movement to try to find a sort of compromise consensus that they could rally around.

There's been some talk about a more limited funding bill for Ukraine. But it looks like they're just going to keep kicking this thing down the road. They will always have a reason to kick it down the road. And this could just be our future. Until election day. Yeah, basically. Just keep going and going and going. But, David, you have the majority of Republicans in Washington.

Certainly in the House, you have the leaders supporting Ukraine, understanding that whether you want this war to go all the way to the border or whether you want to sue for peace or sue for a ceasefire, the only way to get there

is by giving the 60, 61 billion dollars to Ukraine. Interestingly, Joe, I'm told Johnson keeps saying in private to everybody who talks to him, I'm going to get this done eventually. The message he keeps sending is this will pass. Give me some time. I hear you. I thought yesterday reminded us of the powers of incumbency. Joe Biden summons all the congressional leadership to the White House. They listen to him. He tells them, you know, they come out. Three of the four are entirely

with the president supportive. My own view is that this incumbent president is going to use executive action to do something on the border soon. Right. I'm told by the White House this is coming. So will that take away Johnson's Trump card? Well, he says we've got to do something on the border. OK. The president may. But here's the problem with executive action by the president. First of all, it's going to be immediately challenged by the courts. But it will show that it will show that he was politically their criticism.

But it also does not give him any money to actually do things that were like add more border control. That's their fault. They've got to pass it. So he just says, that's all I did. It's a setup for him. I did exactly what you asked, but you didn't do what I asked. And here's where we are. When you still have Marjorie Taylor Greene saying, you put this on the floor, I will come out immediately with a motion to vacate to get rid of you.

He is still hostage, just as McCarthy was. He's still hostage. What is it? Five, six, seven far right members of the Republican Party who are holding up Ukraine's chances, literally holding up Ukraine's chances of winning. And I don't know what's standing in the way of Mike McCaul and other people who actually care about what happens in Taiwan, who care about what happens in Ukraine, who care about what happens in Israel. I don't know what's stopping them from going to the speaker. And maybe they have. We're going to give you a week and then we're going to sign a discharge petition because that happened. That happened when I was there. People would go to news. You either get it done or we're going to get it done. We don't want to roll you. We don't want to embarrass you, but you've got a week. So I'd be surprised if that wasn't going on, because that way they do a

discharge petition, they put it on the floor. And if if these backbench crazies have any any, you know, they can take it up with McCall. Right. Who will tell them in no uncertain terms to go straight to hell? He's not answerable to him. And you get it done. We have coming up Morning Joe's senior golf correspondent and also the chairman emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass. He'll unpack all of this and pick his early favorite for the Masters when we return. I told reporters yesterday that he's optimistic about a ceasefire in Gaza by next week. And this was awkward while I was eating ice cream.

How about a minute to put down my cone, dude? It's time to bring peace to a region that is known far too much. Tragedy. tragedy what i love most about this is how awkward this moment is for seth meyers oh fantastic in joe biden's defense he had the ice cream first it's not like they asked him about g Gaza and he said, hold on, if we're going to talk about war, I got to get a mint chip. They did have Seth framed up there, didn't they? Please push in on the president. Let's bring President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haas. And Richard, we need to start right there because I've just been told I've been handed a bulletin here that says you worked at the Baskin Robbins Roslyn Long Island location when you were in 11th grade.

What insight can you share with that from the president? Well, the important thing, Willie, is when you scoop, you learn how to put lots of air in the scoop. And that way it looks like it's a really big piece of ice cream on top, but you've actually saved the store money because a lot of it is simply oxygen. So trick the customer. Is that the philosophy? But also aerates, it increases the flavor because the air interacts with the ice cream. Fascinating. Enhances the flavor. Fascinating stuff. And particularly when you're scooping for the President of the United States.

Exactly. Let's pick up the conversation we were having just a minute ago about, if I could move on from Baskin-Robbins, about the position the president of the United States is in right now. We saw 100,000 votes for untrammitted, mostly in protest of the way the United States is supporting Israel and its prosecution of the war against Hamas. What needs to change there? Not so much for the president, but for Israel and Hamas and the way that war is going. Look, at most, you're going to get another tactical ceasefire. The why the president predicted it seems to me to have been a tactical error because he doesn't control it.

If anything, it gives others more leverage. And also Israel and Hamas both said, I don't know what he's talking about. I don't know. One would think he did it in the run up to Michigan, but this might come back to hurt him a bit. But even if you get a tactical ceasefire, you don't have any of the prerequisites of what you might call a strategic ceasefire about a lasting political process. The two sides are far, far, far apart. Israel still looking at a long-term occupation, no role for the Palestinian Authority. To say they're not on the same page, they're not in the same book. And I think with the United States, what the Biden administration has to do is simply take a different approach. Up to now, for five months, what we've been doing

is saying we're sympathetic with Israel, but we disagree with this, this, and that, urging Israel, trying to persuade Israel. It's not working. What the administration has to do is chart its own course. You talked about some things before. Introduce our own resolutions in the United Nations. I still think the president should travel to Israel, give a speech to the Israeli people from the Knesset. I don't think he should deny Israel military aid, but start conditioning its use. We have end user controls with every other country. Start saying you can't use large bombs in certain types of situations. Why don't we put some economic limits on Israeli ability to export goods made in settlements or in the occupied territories to the United States, force them to

be labeled, not that they're made in Israel, they're made in the occupied territories, and maybe put certain tariffs on them. I think there's lots of things the United States could do to chart an independent policy, not put all of its eggs in the basket of trying to bring Israel around, because this government in Israel is not going to be brought around. Is it fair to say, Richard, that Prime Minister Netanyahu can say all the right things publicly? We appreciate the support of our great ally, the United States. We stand shoulder to shoulder with them. But then privately is just going to do what he's going to do in Gaza. Well, he's clearly going to do what he's going to do in Gaza? Well, he's clearly going to do what he's going to

do. And he's not even going to say all the right things. He's backed away from any commitment on two states. He's actually, if he has to, he'll run against Joe Biden. He will basically say, I am all that stands between you, the Israeli people, and Hamas stand, some type of a radical Palestinian state that the Americans want to create. So he doesn't want an open rift with America, but if he has to have it, he will have it. And he will then try to use it to his political advantage. Richard, we talk a lot about how Vladimir Putin is playing a waiting game for November to see if Donald Trump comes back in office. Is Benjamin Yahoo doing the exact same thing, playing a waiting game to see if Donald Trump comes back in office? Jonathan, I think

most of the world's playing a waiting game. China is to see what our commitment is to Taiwan after the election. Vladimir Putin, obviously, to see what happens with votes on Ukraine. And yes, Bibi Netanyahu would very much like to have Donald Trump back in the White House. And essentially feeling that you no longer have American pressure. Think about it. What was the centerpiece of the Trump Middle East policy? It was the so-called Abraham Accords. What characterized them? Normalization between Israel and the Arab states, no mention of the Palestinians. The only time the Palestinian

issue was introduced is when the United Arab Emirates insisted and basically said, if you want us to normalize with Israel, here's the price. Israel can't annex certain territory. It has to be greater Palestinian control over its territories. The problem for if Mr. Trump becomes president again here is the Arab world has changed. The Saudis right now, as a result of the last five months, are saying, we want to normalize with Israel, but we have a price. And now, in order to politically protect ourselves, we have to insist that Israel do a lot for the Palestinians. So I think the days of essentially pushing the Palestinian issue off to the side are over.

But your larger point is exactly right. There is lots of the world, probably the Indians and some others, would like to see a president who doesn't particularly care about human rights, isn't pushing certain diplomatic outcomes. And obviously the authoritarians are all hoping for a return of Trump to the White House. You know, what's so fascinating to me, David Ignatius, is that when you do talk to people in the region, they have two conditions. One condition is the Israelis are going to have to get with the program. Second condition, though, is, hey, Americans, you help us get some Palestinian leaders that are actually going to be technocrats and know how to improve the lives of their people or we're not going to show up. Don't ask us to contribute to yet another corrupt leadership. The group of group of leaders in the West Bank are in Gaza. And for people that people that read the news and black and white and people who think they

understand this is just about Arab leaders having problems with Israel. No, no. If you talk to the Saudis, if you talk to the Emiratis, if you talk to Jordanians, if you talk to any any of them, they will tell you this isn't just about Israel. You know, we keep getting asked to help the Palestinians. And it's one thief. Their words, not mine. One thief after another thief after another thief. They steal our money. They do nothing for their people. And then you come back asking us to help 10 years later. We're not

going to do it unless you get it right this time. So the Palestinians are as angry about their corrupt, incompetent, you have to say, government as other Arab countries are, as Israel is. When I was traveling West Bank in December, I kept hearing that. On this question of, as Richard was saying, Prime Minister Netanyahu has time. He's going to run out the clock. He's going to wait for Donald Trump. He does not have infinite time. He has something under 100 Israeli hostages being held in brutal conditions by Hamas. That is a ticking clock. And Israelis are angry. They want those hostages out. The idea that Netanyahu could just kind of fight on and, you know, we'll deal with the hostages later. No, that's that is not so. Netanyahu also has a problem that he's created something that he can't control. I've

been struck since the beginning of this war for the lack of a real Israeli plan for what happens next. You know, this is now a lawless state. It's like Somalia. It's just completely crazy on Israel's border. It's not going to be an acceptable solution. So this idea that, oh, well, Bibi just waited out. I don't think that's as realistic as people are implying. Yeah, I hear that, too. Real frustration from visiting American officials who go there saying, where is the political plan from the Israeli side? And there's clearly I've heard American officials say there is there is a kind of big picture deal that could be done here. Right. The Saudis have recognition of Israel.

In return, they get security guarantees from the United States to protect them against Iran. I mean, there's a potential here for a big, potentially positive. They were working towards that. What's your feeling in the White House now of whether any of that still looks like it's something that they can pull off? Because I know that's what they want, but I haven't heard so much about it in the last week or two. Is Netanyahu just providing too much of an obstacle? I think it's way down the road.

I think it was a dream at the time, potentially possible, but I think right now the focus is just on getting this ceasefire and getting the hostages out, you know, one step at a time. I don't see that as happening anytime soon. Well, I want to pick up on something you talked about and asked Richard about, because one big component here is the domestic political situation for Netanyahu and whether or not he does have time to just wait out this election. Richard, what is the actual domestic political pressures on Netanyahu?

Is there a possibility that an election gets called prior to our own election and he gets ousted? I think a lot of viewers don't really understand how Israeli politics works and whether he can be manipulated to a degree by domestic political actors in his country. Sam, I think it's a reach. There's two ways he could lose power. One is through a parliamentary reshuffling. He's got a four seat advantage at the moment. I don't see anyone able to do that. There's a coalition government at the moment. Too the government. But again, it's a reach. And he's got the advantage, if you will, of momentum. He's there. So sure, there's the possibilities of his being forced. But I think a lot of it is a kind of vain hope of people who want to see a change there. And under the pressure of war, and by the way, there's still the possibility of expanded war in the north. I just think it's unlikely that he gets pushed out. I think we have to plan. Let me put this way, Sam.

I think we have to plan for the likelihood that U.S. Middle East policy is going to be made against the backdrop that this government is going to be in place for this year. And to bank U.S. policy that somehow Bibi's forced out. And then we have a new Israeli government that's a partner. That's a second big assumption. It's quite possible he could be forced out. I think, again, it's a long shot. But the idea he would be replaced by some government that really wants to work with us in the direction of a, quote, unquote, two-state solution. People are ignoring the fact of how the center of Israeli politics have moved to the right significantly. So yes, leaving Netanyahu, I would say, is an enormous obstacle.

But this Israel has changed as a result of October 7th and given demographic changes. So we shouldn't assume that there's something much better out there and waiting. Well, and Willie, to that point, when people are wondering why there isn't more of a push to try to pressure Netanyahu to leave, his replacement most likely would be Gantz. Gantz right now, as it as it pertains to executing this war against the Gazan people, there's not a lot of space there. So if you're actually if you're the Biden White House, you're probably thinking we don't want a new Israeli prime minister who gets damaged in America and that we have to deal with that that that is deeply unpopular in America and across the West. So maybe they allow Netanyahu to carry this until

such time that Gantz can come in and have some sort of break. But Gantz would continue doing exactly what Netanyahu is doing right now. Again, we're in the post 9-11 stage for the Israeli people as far as they're concerned. And they are lined up that this war should be continued until Hamas is destroyed. Yeah, they suffered a horrific, unimaginable attack on October 7th, and they want revenge for that. And that's the mindset right now. And you can certainly understand it. Sam Stein, Elizabeth Buehler, Richard Haas, and David Ignatius, thank you all. Great to see you. Thanks so much.