Morning Joe - Morning Joe 3/11/25

Episode Date: March 11, 2025

Dow falls nearly 900 points and Nasdaq dives 4% as stock sell-off gathers steam

We will go to the markets where it is not a pretty picture on this Monday. Dow down by near 500. Nasdaq getting bludgeoned today down more than 600 points. That's more than 3%. So it's ugly across the board. As we say, Joe, the detox continues. And it is remarkable how quickly the markets have moved from optimism over Trump 2.0 to pessimism over how this thing is all playing out.

Tesla's a perfect example of what we're calling the Tesla chainsaw massacre. It's down again, 50% drawdown from its high, seven weeks in a row the longest losing streak ever. The S&P is now at its lowest level since September. Since September, before the election, fresh data today is not helping quell recession fears, and the NASDAQ is seeing the biggest losses once again. You're taking a live look right now at the Dow. The numbers are tanking on fears of a recession and trade war. 800 points for the Dow, in fact, right now.

We're pretty much at session lows. The S&P is down two and three quarters of a percent. The NASDAQ down four and a quarter for its worst day since 2022. What started as an ugly day on Wall Street has turned downright hideous. Broad based selling across the board and you know, you could call it a sinkhole that's opened up under the Nasdaq. There's a lot of uncertainty right now. Trade policy, tax policy, spending policy, immigration policy and geopolitics are all

quite uncertain. And so I think markets are reacting to that. Maybe Scott Besson should do this. Read his old boss's book, George Soros, The Age of Turbulence, where he talks about herd mentality. The herd is really negative right now, and it's focused all on tariffs. I think some of this is a sales job. They have to go out there and maybe stop talking about tariffs so much and start talking about how we're going to infuse the economy. We're going to we're going to release the animal spirits. We're going to deregulate stuff.

A look at just some of the coverage yesterday as President Trump's tariffs and recession fears sparked a massive sell off on Wall Street. We're going to get an update on the markets from CNBC in just a moment. Of course, headlines talk about Wall Street Journal. Market plunges. Recession worries spread. You have a lot of analysts that had been predicting a soft landing move away from that and talk about the radicalism of policies.

JPMorgan Chase's economic team saying because of the radicalism, the extremism of the policies, they're moving off their more optimistic views. The New York Times also talking about how the economy also, Mika, getting hammered by what happened yesterday on Wall Street. Yeah, we're going to have all of that. Also this morning, we'll bring you the latest on the diplomatic talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia following that disastrous meeting at the White House. Also this morning, we'll bring you the latest on the diplomatic talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials

in Saudi Arabia following that disastrous meeting at the White House. Plus, Health and Human Services Secretary, Robert Kennedy Jr. has a new theory. It's just shockingly stupid. Causing- It's shockingly stupid. The measles outbreak across the country.

And he runs HHS. A theory that has no scientific standing. Absolutely not. Like that. With us we have the co-host of our fourth hour, Jonathan Lemire. He's contributing writer at The Atlantic covering the White House and national politics. Managing editor at The Bullwork, Sam Stein joins us. Former Treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner back with us, especially for today.

Good day to have them. And U.S. national editor at the Financial Times, Ed Loos, joins us this morning. Let's dive right in. We're going to get to the market. So we're going to get to the market crashes and we're going to get to all the concerns about the coming recession. But first, some breaking news on an interview yesterday that Elon Musk had with Larry Kudlow. Elon Musk referred to the federal spending on programs such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as the areas that need to be eliminated. In an interview yesterday,

Musk also claimed Democrats use such programs to attract illegal immigrants and to turn them into voters. Take a look. I mean, the way it's important in entitlement spending, you know, which is all of the, which is most of the federal spending is entitlements. So that's like the big one to eliminate. That's the sort of half trillion, maybe 600, 700 billion a year. That is also a mechanism by which the Democrats attract and retain illegal immigrants by essentially paying them to come here and then turning them into voters.

Yes. So this is why the Democrats are so upset about the situation because they're losing, you know, if we turn off this gigantic money magnet for illegal immigrants, then they will leave and they will lose voters. You know, there are times when Democrats have put words in Republicans' mouths about Social Security and Medicare. Here he said the quiet part out loud and actually said Social Security and Medicare is where all the money is, and those are the ones that need to be eliminated. Now we've, of course, seen him say other things

that have been deeply damaging politically, but that is extraordinarily damaging politically. And Steve Ratner, I wanna do a fact check also. He wasn't talking about people up to 160 years of age that Donald Trump incorrectly said we're getting Social Security payments. He's just saying that's where the money is. By the way, you and I, we always say that. We don't say eliminate them.

We also don't say that people are, you've got Democrats using Social Security and Medicare to attract illegal immigrants to America to vote for them. I must say that is a new and quaint approach to the two most important programs for Americans, retired Americans. But that's what he said. But let's do a fact check on the other part, just so when that comes up about Donald Trump went on and on and on in the speech about people getting Social Security checks up to 160. That's not the case.

The fact is that they have stayed on the rolls because it's an automated roll where they didn't get pulled off. I want to give you some numbers. You're a number guy. In 2020, in 2023, Social Security report found that only 44,000 Americans of the 18.9 million individuals listed over 100 years old in the database were receiving payments. In 2020's Census Bureau, there were 80,139 people in America who were over 100. So that tells you that there are almost twice as many Americans alive over 100 as there are Americans who are receiving Social

Security payment checks. So the idea that there's this massive fraud is ridiculous. Eighty thousand Americans alive over 100 years of age, you know, and half of them not getting Social Security benefits. So again, it undermines it. This is, again, this is a lie that Musk continued to tell yesterday, but also just overall talking about how those are the programs that need to be eliminated, again, pretty shocking to most Americans, I would think. Yeah, Joe, look, other presidents have talked about even trimming Social Security, privatizing Social Security, all of those ideas have gone down in flames

because the American people like their Social Security, they like their Medicare. I was with somebody the other day, a senator who conducts town halls and he said, he said, and the one thing one of his constituents said, and the one thing that you have to be sure of, I don't want the government messing around with my Medicare. They don't even realize Medicare in some cases is a government program. They just like it because it takes care of their healthcare needs. And so this has become part of the fabric of our social net. It's something

people depend on. It's something people pay into. And the notion of eliminating it is, I think, going to blow up in the faces of Elon Musk and Donald Trump. Now, President Trump himself... I'm wondering, but before we go to you, Jonathan Lemire, hey, TJ, could you cue up that clip again? I just want to make sure that we didn't misunderstand what Elon had to say. He's talking to Larry Kudlow and it's fascinating that you and I were watching another network last night where they were interviewing Larry Kudlow. It's fascinating that this part of the interview never came up. Let's play it again, because it's kind of-

The way it's important in entitlement spending, which is most of the federal spending is entitlements. So that's the big one to eliminate. That's the half trillion, maybe 600, 700 billion a year. That is also a mechanism by which the Democrats attract and retain illegal immigrants by essentially paying them to come here and then turning them into voters. Yes. So this is why the Democrats are so upset about the situation because they're losing, you know, if we turn off this gigantic money magnet for illegal immigrants, then they will

leave and they will lose voters. So Ed Lewis, President Trump, repeatedly has said he wouldn't touch Social Security. Other times he's waffled, suggested maybe there'd be some something to do on the margins there. But this is pretty clear what Elon Musk had to say yesterday. $700 billion, a lot of money, maybe even more. And its Social Security is known as the third rail of American politics for a reason. No one touches it, certainly without devastating political consequences.

So this is now, Musk has now supplied Democrats with yet another ready-made campaign commercial, wielding that chainsaw on stage at CPAC, indiscriminately cutting federal government programs that hurt red state, blue state voters alike. And now this, saying he wants to not reform, even just eliminate social security, which would have impacts on just about every American? It would, and it's not the first time, remember, Jonathan. He's also described it as a Ponzi scheme, which portrays a complete ignorance of how Ponzi schemes work.

This is a pay-as-you-go system. People pay into it all their lives, and then they draw out of it after they retire or get disability or whatever. The one group that doesn't draw out of it are illegal immigrants. They come in, they work, they pay into it, but they don't draw out of it because they're illegal immigrants, let alone come here because of the magnet, as Musk calls it, of social security. So this is the most extraordinary misreading, both of how social security works and also of the role of illegal immigrants in the US economy.

And I have to say, I keep correcting, maybe I'm being pedantic, but entitlements is the wrong word. If you pay into something, you are investing in your future, your money, so in the expectation, you'll get it back after you retire. Any attempt, as I think Trump knows, to mess with that is political dynamite. Elon Musk is, Elon Musk's political standing in this town is falling almost as fast as Tesla's share price. He is an albatross around Trump's neck. Not that fast.

Let's not overstate things there. I mean, they've lost like $750 billion in market cap over like, I don't know, the past month or two. Yeah, real quick. But Sam Stein, real quickly, and then we're going to get to the markets, unfortunately, crashing yesterday. Sam, really quickly, because there's going to be a lot of scrambling going on, I'm sure, in the White House about what Elon Musk said and what he didn't say.

I'm sure they're already trying to apologize for him on other networks and try to explain that his words are being wretched for the proper context. Elon Musk said, social security and Medicare, those are the two big programs that need to be eliminated. And he didn't talk about the lie that people are up to 160 getting social security, that and that. No, what he said was, there's like $700 billion there.

That's where the money is. That's what needs to be eliminated. Right, the most generous reading of this comment is he was saying there is waste and fraud up to $700 billion in social security. No, there are no statistics out there to support that claim. And it leads you to the conclusion that

they are either going to manufacture waste, fraud, and abuse in an effort to cut the program, or they're just making it up, honestly. And I have to imagine that, one, this is part of a larger program now to go after the entitlement programs. The reason you have to imagine it is because Elon continues to talk about this. And then, of course, Donald Trump brings it up in the State of the Union address. I know it's not a State of the Union address. And so clearly, their eyes are set on this.

On top of that, DOJ has been doing under the radar a number of cuts to the Social Security Administration. And that is the agency that implements the program, privatization, automation, cutting down offices, all that are going to hurt and hamper the program, privatization, automation, cutting down offices, all that are going to hurt and hamper the program and its administration. You can already tell on Capitol Hill there is incredible discomfort from Republicans and Democrats over what they've done to date. And they've just gotten started.

This is very kindly an albatross that is going to hang over them. Trump knows this, which is what's fascinating to me, is that he knows how bad this can be politically for him, and yet he's not reigning in Elon when it comes to Social Security. And again, these lies about Social Security and paying people that are dead up to 160, not only are they not paying a lot of people that are dead up to 160, like what we heard and what we keep hearing from Elon Musk and others in the administration, they're not even paying 40,000 Americans who are over 100 Social Security. They're more Americans alive, 80,000, according to the 2020 census, that are alive over 100

years old, than are getting Social Security checks, which is about 44,000. So let's look at what happened with stock futures, which are up slightly this morning after a massive sell-off yesterday on Wall Street. Fidel lost nearly 900 points. The S&P fell 502.7% and the NASDAQ dropped more than 700 points. It's worst days since September of 2022.

Stocks sank as concerns over a recession rose on Wall Street after President Trump, in an interview with Fox News on Sunday, refused to rule out the possibility that his tariffs and policies could cause a recession. Analysts at JPMorgan Chase now believe there is a 40% chance of a global recession because of extreme U.S. policies. Yesterday's loss has continued what has been a weeks-long stretch of selling since Trump's tariffs talks began. The S&P 500 closed down 8.6% from its record high

on February 19th, shedding over $4 trillion in market value during that time. Let's bring you right now the anchor of CNBC's worldwide exchange, Frank Hollin. Frank, bloodbath yesterday on Wall Street. Talk about it. Yeah, very difficult day on Wall Street. Huge declines. You guys are laying out the numbers.

I got one more for you. The NASDAQ having its worst day in more than two years and a trillion dollars in tech stock gains, lost, just gone in one day. So you mentioned it. Two big factors here, concerns over White House policy and fears of recession driving that sell off that again has wiped out $4 trillion from the S and P 500 often called the broader market since its all time high that it hit just last month. It's been a very long month for investors. Also now there's concerns about the consumer that are weighing on the market, especially yesterday.

Delta Airlines coming out with a warning of weakness when it comes to consumer and business spending that has airline stocks trading lower this morning. But also that warning is kind of flying in the face of what we've been hearing from so many companies and even economists. A lot of those economists are telling us the economy is strong, the consumer is strong

and that spending for consumers that are about 70% of the economy is just shifted to things like services, including travel and hospitality. Again, that delta warning kind of flying in the face of all that. Also, when it comes to that AI trade that's really powered the market over the last two years, we're continuing to see people saying that that story may have unwound, including our own Jim Cramer yesterday. He said the Max 7, that just doesn't even exist anymore, saying that Tesla and Nvidia, an AI name that's gone from obscure to ubiquitous,

it's just no longer magnificent anymore. He says both Tesla and Nvidia, they're kind of like meme stocks right now, kind of twisting and turning on investor sentiment that's often called animal spirits. That's a term you're gonna hear a whole lot more today, especially. So just yesterday, I spoke with former Fed official,

Loretta Mester. She doesn't believe that we're headed for a recession. She admits there's a slowdown, but doesn't think it's a recession. But even she admitted, if you're an investor, a business leader, just a person, it's time to plan for a potential economic slowdown, maybe even a recession.

Not her base case, but she's saying certainly it's becoming a more and more of a realistic possibility. CNBC's Frank Holland, thank you very, very much. Let me just say really quickly, big difference between Tesla and Nvidia. I mean, Tesla has been overvalued, analysts believe, for years. It's sort of a meme stock. People are investing in sort of the genius of Elon Musk. That's obviously been shattered over the past couple months, especially in Europe. Nvidia, they are making chips that are going to fuel the future revolution.

And just because the Wall Street is going one way or another because of fears over tariffs doesn't change the underlying fundamentals of that. So for several years, and definitely over the past few months, you've talked about the strong, yet precarious state of the American economy warning the Trump administration and Republicans in power in Washington to be careful not to upend things. Here's Joe over the past few months. Here's Joe over the past few months. Take a look. Tariffs are taxes on consumers. They are taxes on middle class Americans.

Donald Trump broke all records when he was president for being fiscally reckless. And now with his proposals, according to economists quoted by the Wall Street Journal, it's going to happen again. The challenge for Donald Trump and the administration is, in some ways, do no harm. I mean, do no harm on tariffs that are going to be inflationary. Do no harm on a monetary policy that's going to be too inflationary. We got a $36 trillion debt. Our economy has been fueled by debt from the federal government since 2007. It just has. Republicans, they need to be careful when

they take control. They need to be careful because right now they have an economy that's the envy of the world. And when you're sitting with a lead like that, you don't want to move too fast. We have a strong economy, but it's on the razor's edge as far as inflationary pressures go. We've got a stock market that Warren Buffett and a lot of people a hell of a lot smarter than me think is overvalued, overpriced right now. We've got the bubble, the crypto bubble.

We're just crazy, maddening profits right now, literally based on nothing. But this idea that markets go up forever and this idea, this threat coming from China, this idea that everybody has to line up and deal with America or there's nobody else for them to deal with, right now, you know, we're finding out it is not a unipolar world. Leaders across the world have said the United States economy, the envy of the world before Donald Trump got into office. It's not looking quite that way right now. So that's Joe.

Over the past few months, and with respect, we also had very honest conversations with members of the business community, CEOs, even billionaires that supported Trump. And the reaction was, oh, Joe, he's not gonna do that. He's, you're crazy. He's not gonna do that. And yet, Donald Trump's been quite consistent about this. And now he is doing what he has said he was gonna do. Well, I talked to a lot of people yesterday who had been brushing these warnings aside

for months now, and they're not quite as confident this morning. They were not quite as confident yesterday. Steve Ratner, we've had this discussion before, too. The United States economy was the envy of the world, but it was incumbent upon Republicans, incumbent upon Republicans to do no harm. That is a classic Edmund Burke conservative approach. I'm an Edmund Burke conservative, and I have been for 250 years now. But do no harm. And of course, this arrogant notion

that the United States could tell the rest of the world, take it or leave it, acting as if this were, you know, 2000 or 2001, where we were the only game in town, it's just not the reality. And so I've been warning of three bubbles, the fiscal bubble, which still will explode at some point if Republicans don't get responsible, and that will be the ugliest bubble of all,

the crypto bubble that is starting to pop, and of course, the stock market bubble. But it's all the analysts that I read of yesterday, and I'd love to get your input, we're talking about, it's the back and forth. It's the reckless, the radical policies. It's what JP Morgan Chase called extreme policies that Republicans are pushing that actually leading us down a pathway of this economic chaos that we saw play out in front of our

eyes yesterday. Yeah, Joe, I think your last point is an important one, as well as, of course, the rest of it. Look, they came in, they—I guess you could say they did what they said they were going to do, but I don't think anybody really expected—nobody expected—it was going to be this extreme that Elon Musk was going to go in there wielding his Doge sledgehammer, smacking away at whatever he felt like, talking off the cuff about Social Security or this or that. And so the policies they've actually articulated that they're doing are very extreme.

But what is really bothering the market as much as anything is uncertainty. You heard a reference in the earlier clip to the earlier guests to animal spirits. Animal spirits was a coin, a phrase coined by John Maynard Keynes and what it really means is that you can have policies but a lot of what goes on in economy is how people feel. Are they excited? Are they optimistic? Do they believe it's going to get better? Or are they worried? And in Trump 1.0, whether you liked it or not, at least from the point of view of the business community, it was sort of clear, it was logical, and it was things they liked

in terms of tax changes, regulatory changes, and so forth. This administration is all over the place. And one day they're cutting Social Security. The next day they're firing everybody at USAID. And then they're rehiring some because the courts tell them to because they realize they can't get the Social Security checks out without these people. And the tariffs go on, the tariffs go off, they get suspended, they get threatened in other places.

And this is what business really can't live with or consumers Yeah, the uncertainty of not knowing what's going to happen And so you do see consumers cutting back on spending it fell in January for the first time in a long time You do see for example the deal the deal market companies buying and selling each other almost at a standstill because nobody knows what the rules of the game are going to be for the companies once they they merge and It's kind of chaos is another word to put it and so the stock market sees all that and says as you just pointed out It's kind of price for perfection. It's had a great run and Why are we sitting up here at these high levels when there's all this crazy stuff going on in the world and anything could bring down the economy.

Again, price for perfection, which is why, again, do no harm. That's what the warning was about. And I've got to say, anybody that didn't see this coming during the presidential election ... Wasn't listening. Wasn't listening. And they certainly weren't listening to us because what did... I mean, I bet you I talked to Andrew Ross Sorkin a hundred times times saying Andrew. What are the two things?

That the market hates they hate instability right first of all and they hate unpredictability and and that's exactly what they've been given and that's why the mark pop I just got to say really quickly because the work because I think was Charlie Gasparino that talked about animal spirits quoting John Maynard Keynes because I think it was Charlie Gasparino that talked about animal spirits, quoting John Maynard Keynes. You know, I was at a roundtable at Luce, and I think we talked about this. I certainly talked about it on the air time and time again. I was at a roundtable at King's College in Cambridge back in December, and also talked with a lot of bankers and economic thinkers in London. with a lot of bankers and economic thinkers in London. And I came back and I talked about it on the show a lot.

We were the envy of the world. Our economy was the envy of the world. And they kept talking about animal spirits. They kept talking about the extraordinary economic run the United States had had over the past two, three, four years. London wanted to emulate that. Berlin wanted to emulate that. Berlin wanted to emulate that. Paris wanted to emulate that.

They said, you all are just light years ahead of us. It's hard to believe. That was just three, three and a half months ago. Nobody is saying in London, Paris, Berlin, across the world, oh, I would like to be more like the United States economically today. Nobody's saying it.

Are you talking to them now? And they're like, man, we can't figure out what you guys are doing. And far from wanting to emulate us, now they're saying we're gonna have to go it alone. Yeah, it's actually remarkable. The last few days, the shift of stock market hopes and projections across the Atlantic.

I mean, Germany has had a so-called Sputnik moment. We talk about John Maynard Keynes. The Germans are now talking about real spending, real reflation. And so are the French. Even the British are beginning to sort of move under Keir Starmer. So the animal spirits that the market is expecting to see have crossed the Atlantic. I mean, I think Trump inherited pretty much the perfect economy from a macroeconomic point of view on January the 20th.

There'd been a soft landing. Inflation was under control. The magnificent seven stocks were booming for good reason. And in seven short weeks, he's turned America from the star performer into the laggard. It's hard to think of any other president who in that short period of time could have shifted the markets from bull to bear as Trump has done in the last couple of months. It's remarkable. President Trump likes to say often to Volodymyr Zelensky, you don't have the cards. If America's economy fails and it keeps continuing in the direction that it's continuing, the United States are not going to have the cards.

It's going to be the Trump cards and we're not going to have them. I don't think it's going to continue to fail. I do think there are going to be readjustments here. Obviously, I mean, you look at the stocks that continue to fall, I'm sure Donald Trump's not going to want to listen to Ronald Reagan, but Ronald Reagan had an old saying, which was, if I can get 80% of what I want, well, then I'm not going to give that up for nothing. He has believed in tariffs since 1987. This isn't something he dreamed up in the middle of this campaign or the last campaign. But targeted tariffs going after China, not going after our best trade partners,

those targeted tariffs would be far more popular politically. And also, they would do a lot less damage, not only on Wall Street, but on Main Street. And I gotta say, Mika, I think most Americans would support targeted, tough tariffs on China. We shall see. U.S. National Editor at the Financial Times, Ed Luce, thank you. Morning Joe, Economic Analyst Steve Ratner, thank you as well. And still ahead on Morning Joe, we'll go live to Saudi Arabia, ahead of today's high-stakes talks between the U.S. and Ukrainian officials of ending the war with Russia.

NBC's Keir Simmons is standing by for us. Morning Joe is back in 90 seconds. As the hour, Russia has stepped up its attacks on Ukrainian territory and now Ukraine is launching retaliatory strikes, Russia's defense ministry said overnight its air defenses shot down over 300 Ukrainian drones in 10 different regions. This video shows the moment a drone slammed into the top of a building in Russia's Moscow region around 4 a.m. local time. That comes as Ukrainian officials are meeting right now with Secretary of State Marco Rubio

and other U.S. officials for talks aimed at ending the years-long war with Russia. On the plane to Saudi Arabia yesterday, Secretary Rubio previewed today's discussions. And obviously, it'll be very difficult for Ukraine in any reasonable time period to sort of force the Russians back all the way to where they were in 2014. So the only solution to this war is diplomacy and getting them to a table where that's possible. Today's meeting will not involve Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, although he was in the same city yesterday, where talks are being held right now. Zelensky met with the Saudi Crown Prince, saying on social media they had a, quote, detailed discussion on the steps and conditions needed to end the war. Let's bring in right on NBC News chief international correspondent, Keir Semon.

He's live from a jet of Saudi Arabia. I must say what Marco Rubio, what the American Secretary of State said yesterday on the airplane may have made big headlines that Ukraine is going to have to give up territory, but I must say it is the identical thing. And neither, neither gentlemen will like me saying this is the identical thing. What then chairman of the joint chiefs, Mark Milley told me in 2023 before the vault voted spring offensive by the Ukrainians. And he's like, now that's not going to drive the Russians out of Ukraine. They're going to have to come to a broker piece for the same reasons that Marco Rubio was saying that on the plane over to Saudi Arabia yesterday.

What tell us what's what's going on over there now? What what sort of the vibe if we're to use the the the word of 2024 in Saudi Arabia right now around these peace talks? Well Joe those talks have been going on now for more than an hour in an adjacent room from here. The Secretary of State Marco Rubio holding up a thumbs up when he was asked as he headed into the room. The lead, the leader of the Ukrainian delegation, Andrei Yermak, talking about the Americans

as seeming constructive. I mean, we've been talking about in recent days, Joe, right, about how President Trump's language appears to have been changing, suggesting that it's going to be more difficult to get to a ceasefire. And I think both Ukraine and Russia have been giving President Trump a lesson in that in recent days. That drone strike on Moscow overnight,

right as these talks are getting started, described by a local official as the biggest drone strike on Moscow of this war, at least two killed, 17 injured, according to those local officials. On the other hand, Odessa hit again overnight in Ukraine, and there have been these escalating attacks by the Russians in recent days. So the reality is, while the Americans and the Ukrainians are talking here, the Russians and Ukrainians only talk to each other in the language of war. And that is the difficulty.

We do have a picture of the kinds of things that they're going to be talking about in the room right now. You mentioned Marco Rubio on the plane there. He was kind of hedging a little bit, not giving too much away, talking about that they are trying to get a sense from both the Ukrainians and the Russians about what exactly, where exactly they stand and how far apart they are. They're a long way apart, ostensibly, given what you're seeing on the battlefield. But there you are, the diplomacy now going on. And President Zelensky, who met with Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, who is playing a mediating role, talking overnight about some of the things that he had a conversation with the Crown Prince about, including the Russians sending back Ukrainian prisoners, including

children. He's talked about the potential for security guarantees, he says with the Crown Prince. That of course, the vexed question that led to that disastrous meeting in the Oval Office. The Ukrainians still talking about security guarantees, not giving up on that. And then the Russians real quick. We are hearing from the Russians this morning. And again, we've said many times, haven't we, the Russians are not in a hurry. Today, the Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, saying we shouldn't have rose-tinted glasses about our

relationship with the United States. Kyr, it's Jonathan. What is the progress, as best you can tell, on this minerals deal that many thought was going to be signed in the Oval Office a couple of weeks back wasn't, when that meeting devolved into tensions and some anger even, and as well as the idea of territory? You just mentioned the security guarantees Ukraine's still hoping to get. Is there an early sense from what the U.S. is telling Ukraine, what they may have to settle for in their estimation in terms of getting their land back?

Yeah, I mean, on the question of the minerals deal, look, it's possible that at this meeting, they signed something. I think that's unlikely. But this is a work in progress. Just to make another point, there are two senior US officials in the delegation there. There are three senior Ukrainian officials. That's because the envoy Steve Witkoff isn't here. he's gone to Qatar. So you get the sense that things are being done on the fly. And we've had that sense for some time and that continues. And I guess in a way, Jonathan, that goes to your second question about what are the Americans saying they'll give and what are they demanding of the Ukrainians?

It's tricky to tell. Look, you make a good point, Joe, about the question of territory. People will look back and ask whether the US gave up the idea of Ukraine concealing territory before they even got into negotiations or whether that was wrong, or whether it was simply a question of facts on the ground.

But certainly, as we've said many times too, the negotiations are happening right now. We talk about people getting around the table. They're around the table in the room next door. There's talk about potentially a US official going to Russia. We don't have that confirmed. But we're watching the negotiations in real time. But will it work out the way President Trump suggests? We're nowhere near being able to say that this is going to be a success.

All right, NBC News chief international correspondent Kyr Simonov, live in Saudi Arabia. Thank you so much. And to underline Kyr's point, you can go back even to the Biden administration. And all the officials in the Biden administration knew that the Ukrainians would have to give up land. Now, what's changed here is they were going to give up land in return for a security guarantee. And the question is, how does that get cobbled together? Does that mean NATO troops on the ground in Ukraine other than U.S. troops and then a U.S. mineral still that puts Americans inside of Ukraine and sort of acts as a hair trigger

so the Russians, I almost said the Soviets, the Soviets can't come into Ukraine without killing Americans? That's really the question. How do you put together that security guarantee that the Biden administration was far more willing to offer up to Ukraine than the Trump administration is right now? Well, it's a question we can ask U.S. and batteries

of Russia, Michael McFaul, who will be on Morning Joe in our fourth hour. Coming up, Mitch McConnell and the president, he calls despicable. The Atlantic's Mark Leibovitch sat down with the outgoing Republican senator. He joins us with a new look at his interview ahead on Morning Joe. And before we go to break, more from our 3050 summit in Abu Dhabi where we gave the Know Your Value Award.

It's an annual award to actress and activist Cheryl Lee Ralph. She was incredible. Oh my God. Yes. Love her. Cheryl spoke to over 500 women from 46 different countries about her career, which includes her first Emmy win at the age of 66, her activism work and how women should put themselves first and not be afraid to take up space.

Cheryl also attended our service day giving tips and advice, career advice to a group of local high school theater students. And on Friday, she received her award at our International Women's Day Awards Gala at the stunning Louvre Abu Dhabi. And she was simply amazing. Take a look. species but I sing no victim song. Thank you, Mika,

honorary girlfriend. Thank you for believing in the power of women. Thank you for having the vision and the foresight to create something like this so that others may follow for generations to come. Knowing your value, oh, it's not always easy. For many of us it has been a journey, a long journey, a journey of finding our voice, standing our ground and learning to take up space

in rooms that were not always built for us. And like so many women, I have faced moments of doubt. I have been underestimated. I have been told to wait my turn, to be grateful for what I have, to not ask for too much, but at every step, I had a choice. I could either shrink or I could rise to accept less or to demand more.

And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise.

And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. And I choose to rise. Last the hour, time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines. This morning, the former leader of the Philippines has been arrested on accusations of crimes against humanity.

Rodrigo Duterte was taken into custody at Manila's main airport after returning from a trip to Hong Kong. The International Criminal Court says the 79-year-old was responsible for tens of thousands of deaths as part of his brutal crackdown in the country, which he cast as a war on drugs and crime. According to the New York Times, it appears that the Philippine government was prepared to surrender Mr. Duterte to the ICC. Ontario, Canada's most popular province, is hitting back at President Trump's tariffs by imposing a new 25% surcharge on electricity exported to Michigan, Minnesota and New York during a news conference yesterday.

Ontario's leader, premier Doug Ford said the move could increase electricity bills for some U.S. households by roughly $100 per month. And police say wildfires that tore across Long Island over the weekend were sparked by someone making s'mores. Oh, good Lord. Yeah. Really? Making s'mores in their backyard. So we should we should cut that out. No s'mores. No s'mores over 4th of July with the kids. Well I don't know this is not the 4th of July. No no I'm just saying though like s'mores this is now one of the great threats. Officials say the

person who was trying to roast marshmallows used cardboard to light a fire after struggling to get the flames going in the windy conditions. Governor Kathy Hockel has since instituted a burn ban on Long Island. That's some s'mores right there. It's a s'mores ban. A lot of marshmallows you could use. That that that was crazy but no it's not funny at all not funny but from small sports Lamar I never knew also really big headline out of major leagues bad news and I do mean that and the nightmare realized for New York Yankees and their fans ace pitcher Garrett Cole will have season ending Tommy John surgery on his throwing elbow today decision to

undergo the procedure comes after Cole sought a second opinion on the discomfort he experienced following his second outing in spring training last week. The 34 year old right hander is expected to be sidelined for at least part of the 2026 season as well. That's really is. It's really sad news. You know, we're obviously we're Red Sox fans, but man, you want to see the best out there. And again, again I Garrett Cole is such a gritty tough competitor. It feel terrible for him.

And as we were saying yesterday tongue in cheek. Raffy Devers does too because with Cole not there he's going to have five less home runs this year. Yeah Devers has chances that the All-Star team do just take

a hit. But Joe you're right we don't root for injuries. Injuries are a part of the game. But Sam, right now, injuries really piling up for the Yankees. Luis Heal, who was Rookie of the Year last year, he's out a few months. Colt, as established, out for the year. Gene Carlos Stan might also be facing season-ending surgery. Yankees go into the season limping.

Again, you hate to see it. You do. You hate to see it. Sam, don't be sarcastic. We do hate to see it. You're being sarcastic now. All right, all right, all right. I don't root for injuries.

I wouldn't root for it. A garakole is a very good pitcher. And I wish the Yankees well. Yes, he's great. I do. I'm sure. We don't. We don't. He's great. I do. I wish we were well. We don't look such that far. I will say yesterday, last year, John, it was unusual for the Yankees.

I don't know that I've seen a team over the past five years that have been hit by more injuries. And I don't know exactly why that is. I know a few years ago Yankees fans were complaining about the fact that they just they they they weren't in good shape. They they they didn't seem up to the task of playing that changed of course last year. But man they are always hit it seems in recent years with a ton of injuries. Last year Jonathan was the exception to to the rule. Yeah. Even Cole missed a little bit of time last year.

But you're right. They've that's been a franchise that has had real issues maybe that's was the impetus to their biggest offseason move which of course was changing their facial hair policy perhaps thinking that the beards that neatly groomed beards that they could now grow would change or injury karma seems like it's not working at least so far you know me I can't ever have a serious conversation with these of these guys. Why do you try?

I don't know. You make a fool. At the Bullwark, Sam Stein, you were completely sarcastic. I was not. We were trying to be sensitive. I feel for them. Bye. Still ahead.

Bye.