Morning Joe - Morning Joe 4/11/24

Episode Date: April 11, 2024

Arizona Republicans block attempt to repeal near-total abortion ban

We'll get this. Today, former President Trump held a fundraiser in Atlanta, and on his way to the event, he stopped at a local Chick-fil-A. Take a look at this. Can I have 30 milkshakes? And also some chicken. Wow.

After Trump placed the order, the cashier said, we're gonna need to see the money first. Ah, just... We heard some things. We heard some things. We heard some things. We heard some things. All right. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Thursday, April 11th. And speaking of the former president, his legal team lost yet another desperate delay attempt in the hush money criminal case, making them 0 for 3 in last minute attempts to push back the looming trial.

It starts on Monday. We'll look at what legal options they have left. Also ahead, Speaker Mike Johnson is headed down to Mar-a-Lago tomorrow to meet with Trump. The trip comes as the former president's allies in the House are threatening Johnson's speakership. What are they planning together? If I already know, it's already in the making are threatening Johnson's speakership. What are they planning together? If I already have a nice little deal in the making. Oh, my God. Along with Joe, Willie and me, we have the host of way too early White House beer chief at Politico,

Jonathan Lemire, member of The New York Times editorial board. Mara Gay is with us and the host of the podcast on brand with Donnie Deutsch. Donnie Deutsch is here with us at the top of the show this morning. Good to have you. Can we dive right into this new polling? Yeah, I guess so. There's so much to cover today. Yeah, the new polling today. OK. General election polling shows a nine point swing toward President Joe Biden in the latest national survey from Reuters and Ipsos, Biden leads Trump by four points, 41 to 37 percent within the poll's margin of error, but marks a shift from January when Trump led Biden 43 to 38 percent. 64 percent of registered voters also say the charges Trump faces in his upcoming hush money trial are either very or somewhat serious.

Also, if he's convicted of a felony by Election Day, 24 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of current Trump voters say they would not cast their ballots for the presumptive GOP nominee. That could be a little bit why they keep trying to delay this every day. They come up with a new attempt that is rejected. So if the trial starts Monday, that's jury selection. There will be more. I predict there'll be more attempts to delay through jury selection. No such luck. Willie, you know, we always talk about trend lines and and the trend lines are all breaking Joe Biden's way. I mean, if you look at the top of the ridge, if you're Trump, you probably would jump off the Brooklyn Bridge. I mean, because he's like MAGA meltdown and talk about all the polls breaking in Joe Biden's way.

But they are. I mean, the trend lines are pretty strong for Biden coming out of it again, still coming out of the State of the Union. If you look back at that first, the the overall number, you see Joe Biden since January within the margin of error, kind of had this at the same spot. If we can look at that first. There it is. What you also see, though, on the bottom is erosion for Donald Trump. And Donnie, that's part of what the Biden campaign is counting on, which is you see a little bit more of Joe Biden. You look at the data, you look at the numbers. Inflation number wasn't great yesterday. We'll get to that. But but really, the more Donald Trump is out there, the more he's railing, the more he's in a courtroom, the more you saw it in this number about the hush money trial, which is also an election interference trial, the more the public sees of Donald Trump, the Biden campaign hopes, the less it wants to see him back in the

White House. Yeah. And something that poll just is something that I just want to reiterate for people out there who say to me, you know, this hush money thing, it's good for Donald Trump. It makes him look like the victim. No, seeing him sit in a courtroom every day and seeing every day in the news and hearing is not helping him. I could never understand that logic, how somebody who is under indictment for a felony charge and is about to face trial. Somehow that's good for them. So it's not. And the numbers show that. And if you look at and by the way, in this trial, you will be convicted. I don't think there's any question about it. If you listen to that, that spins off about a quarter, a quarter of Republicans. That's a big number. Yeah. And Maura, it is it is, again, a constant, a constant drumbeat, not just of what Donald Trump is saying,

but for the first time, what the Biden campaign is is putting out Donald Trump's own words like every 15 minutes. It's brutal. And every single one of those those messages, I mean, any swing voter would look at and cringe. Well, Americans have a tendency to romanticize the recent past. And so I think now that they're seeing more of Donald Trump and in this case from the Biden campaign, they're remembering just how awful that presidency was. And there's also just a slice of Americans who don't follow politics daily the way that we obsessively do. And now it's dawning on them. Oh, he's not he's not going away. He's going to be he's the presumptive Republican nominee. And now they're really looking at their two choices. They're not looking at,

you know, Joe Biden and maybe somebody else. They're thinking, oh, it's going to be Joe Biden or this guy again. I don't think so. And then the other element of this case in Manhattan is really this is let's remember about hush money payments to cover up, you know, allegedly this affair he had with Stormy Daniels. Sounds quaint at this point. Sounds quaint. It sounds quaint. But again, I just think he's in court because he was covering up bad behavior about the way he treats women at a time when American women across the country, our rights are under assault, really, on abortion. And I think that those things are starting to converge because people are starting to look at

Donald Trump and say, I don't trust him. Yeah. And he's a crook. Yeah. You know, Jonathan, there may be some people out there that are a little bit surprised by the numbers, the trend lines that are breaking in Joe Biden's direction. The Biden campaign, the Biden White House would be last on that list because even a couple of months ago when everybody was freaking out, Democrats wanted to jump off of buildings,

they're like, eh, he's not on the ballot. When people realize we're running against him, we'll be fine. Dare we call it Joe-mentum? We probably shouldn't. But that's what they're calling it. But they have said that inflation is 3.5%. Yeah, that's the problem. That's the problem. So I was getting to that in a second. Right now, this is what the Biden campaign had forecasted, though, that they figured they knew that the president was going to take some hits during the primaries, anger about Gaza, young voters,

the uncommitted ballots that we saw in Michigan and Wisconsin. They factored that in. They know they're still going to have to deal with that. But as you said a moment ago, the more Americans saw Trump, they'd be turned off by him. That's been their theory of the case all along. As the Biden campaign steadily rolls out with huge fundraising advantages, opening up offices in battleground states across the country, promoting infrastructure and other bills, although some in the president's inner circle think they're doing too much of that. We noted Ron Klain yesterday.

And I'm being uncertain, though, what the criminal cases would lead. No one knows for sure what will happen. By the way, what was the Ron Klain thing? It's just a bridge, really? So Klain gave a speech the other night saying that the president has been too focused on infrastructure, and that was his flippant way of doing it about bridges, and saying that he needs to be more focused on consumer prices and costs. And yesterday, the inflation number suggests that maybe he has a point. But I think the White House pushback to that was

immediate and said, well, look, the infrastructure, first of all, A, that's something Americans need, and B, it showed that we can get things done in a bipartisan fashion. That should be part of our message. We need to sell our record of accomplishment. We can't just say, hey, we're not Donald Trump, but they're not Donald Trump. And I think to Mara's point, the abortion headlines in the last week or so as well just really strengthens the president's case here. And it's and we're seeing Trump flail. We saw it again yesterday trying to explain what he means. Yeah. So speaking of former President Trump is trying to change his position yet again on abortion health care.

Trump spoke with reporters following his arrival in Atlanta yesterday, saying he would not sign a federal abortion ban, reversing a promise he made as a candidate back in 2016. And just days after saying abortion policy should be left to the states, he then criticized the state of Arizona's Supreme Court, saying it went too far in restricting abortion access. Yeah, they did. And that'll be straightened out. And as you know, it's all about states' rights. That'll be straightened out. And I'm sure that the governor and everybody else are going to bring it back into reason, and that will be taken care of, I think, very quickly. Florida is probably maybe going to change also. See, it's all about the will of the people.

This is what I've been saying. It's a perfect system. So Florida's probably going to change. Arizona's going to definitely change. Everybody wants that to happen. And you're getting the will of the people. It's been pretty amazing, wouldn't you think, you know, it is pretty amazing that he could sit there and he created the situation, 12 things in 30 seconds that all conflict with each other,

including we'll see what happens, including the lie that Arizona's legislature would fix it quickly because no, they didn't because Republicans, his party, they adjourned quickly because they were freaked out that they actually may stop a 160 year old abortion ban from from being the law of Arizona. I mean, this is it just keeps getting worse. And this this nonsense of his saying, oh, we're going to leave you to the states. But, you know, and then he comes out and says no national abortion ban. He's just offended about 45 percent of his base. He loses like coming and going. He didn't realize Republicans had it best when they just cynically sat back and said, oh, we support a national abortion ban and did nothing about it. Now they're realizing just just, you know, just how much they own, how bad it is. The dog caught the car and then somebody forced the dog to get in the front seat of the car and drive the car.

And they're driving it over the cliff. Think of Toontz as the cat. That was a cat. But same idea. This is Donald the dog. And yeah, the dog's driving it over the cliff. You know, in Donald Trump's attempt over the last three or four days to please everyone, he has pleased exactly no one. There's no position he can take that's going to please the amount of people he needs to win the election. And that was just flailing yesterday. He flailed the day before. So the argument from him is and and he rarely stays on a message, but someone told him to say states' rights over and over again.

So states' rights, states' rights. OK, here it is in Arizona. The state is taking control of the abortion issue. And now we've got a 160-year-old law enforceable on the books. And he's going, well, in that case, that one's bad. So not in that state. He just, there's no safe place for him to land. And this is a terrible issue.

He says states' rights on Monday. And then on Tuesday, states go, OK, yeah, hold my beer. And then on Wednesday, he goes, oh, no, no, not states. Right. Well, here's what we're talking about in Arizona. So a day after Arizona's Supreme Court ruled a 160 year old near total abortion ban is enforceable. Republicans in the state legislature blocked efforts to repeal the law. Republican leaders in Arizona's legislature, which is controlled by conservatives, said they will be, quote, closely reviewing the high court's ruling and listening to their constituents to determine how to proceed. However, they then scuttled an effort to repeal the law by calling for recess and adjourning until next week, prompting angry jeers from Democrats.

I move that we recess to the sound of the bill immediately. You've heard the secondary motion. I heard a second. All in favor of that motion, vote aye. All opposed, vote no. Ayes have it, so will they. Shame on you! Shame on you! Shame on you! Hold the vote! Hold the vote! Hold the vote! They're just not going to win being behind Donald Trump being responsible for a total abortion ban, nearly a total abortion ban with no i think no exceptions for rape or incest just life of the mother that was went into law before arizona was a state and before abraham lincoln before women was re-elected think about that before Abraham Lincoln was reelected, this this total abortion ban came into effect.

And there were sixty five hundred people living in Arizona when this happened. So think about this ban now. Think about Arizona women. All women now don't have access to health care that could save their lives. Anyone who goes to visit Arizona, don't go there. You might have an emergency. If you need an emergency DNC, you need some sort of emergency treatment. Under this law, you won't get it. You are not going to be safe. Why would you take a vacation in Arizona? Why would you live in Arizona?

And over on Fox, they were saying, well, you know, getting a bus ticket's not that bad. Did they actually say that? Yeah. They said, oh, yeah, it's not a big deal. Buy a bus ticket and go to another state. That's embarrassing for them. I mean, it looks like you're going to have to drive four hours in some places in that state to be able to get health care you need. And we're talking, you know, abortion is health care. And this is going to involve people as well who actually want pregnancies and have medical emergencies. This is going to

involve women who are in life or death situations. And now we have hospitals and health care facilities in Arizona who don't even know what they are supposed to do. And so you have doctors hesitating for saving women's lives. Going to the board, going to lawyers. Wondering if, right, wondering if they're going to be prosecuted. And these procedures are not just for women who are pregnant. Exactly. So women are being denied the health care that they are used to that saves their lives, improves their lives, keeps them out of pain, perhaps gets them out of a situation where

they're bleeding out. They will not get that in Arizona. Right. Thanks to Donald Trump, by the way. And it also puts them in a position where they may be able to have babies in the future. I mean, unfortunately, we're seeing all too often this. And Joe Biden's campaign underlined this situation of a lady who may never be able to have a baby again. I just wanted to, you know, pregnancy is actually a very dangerous condition.

And so it's scary enough as it is. And the idea that you would essentially threaten prosecution of doctors, you know, who are trying to actually provide care to human beings in that condition is abominable. And I cannot imagine that this is going to go over well with Arizona voters and not just women, men. Yeah. The human aspect of this is obviously most important, but there's a huge political one, too. I mean, I've talked to you in the Trump campaign there. It's a panic these last few days about what Arizona did. Trump finally comes out, gives his position on Monday about abortion. And then the very next day, this happens in Arizona on the heels of what happened in Florida, his home state.

And this changes the electoral calculus come November. Florida, I think most Democrats concede, still likely out of reach, but they'll make Republicans spend money there. But Arizona, which seemed like it was maybe slipping away, Biden won it in 2020. Everyone, this consensus in Wilmington is it'd be harder this time around. They hadn't given up on it, but they knew it'd be harder. But now they think it's squarely in play again with abortion rights being on the ballot. And if that is the case, that opens up their path to 70, when before it looked like it was maybe only going to be able to go through Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. Add Arizona to it.

They got lots of options. Donna, you're an ad guy. I mean, how hard would it be to put an ad together? Just absolutely skewer. That ad that's out there. And Arizona. Almost lost her life. He's incredibly compelling.

Look, going back to the top of the show, we talked about the polls. That was pre-Arizona. Abortion is the issue. You know, Carmel always famously said it's the economy stupid it's abortion stupid and i've said this before women are going to save this country this is on women and you know we can see all of them and the men and women not only their votes they're going to be talking to their fathers and their husbands and their sons and go are you kidding me yeah so thank god for women and uh arizona is going to be a big, big, big deal.

And even in his scramble yesterday, Donald Trump's scramble to some get to some position on abortion. He went on to say that taking away Roe versus Wade, for which he takes full credit, it was an incredible thing, an incredible achievement. Quote, we did that. Yeah. Just take that. Put it on tape. And that was so that he said, well, no, give it back to the states. But what Arizona did is bad. Reporter says, well, what about Florida? That's bad, too. They should change that. So is he going to have to go state by state? Is he get to half the country by the time he stops counting and say, well, those those are all bad, but we should still give it back to the states. Point being, there's nowhere for him to hide on this.

Well, this is now becoming a trend. And the undecided voters that we looked at yesterday in those focus groups by WIC, they a lot of the undecided or people who had voted for Trump in the past were saying, we don't know where he stands on anything. He keeps changing and you just can't believe him, you know, and at least Biden may not like him, but I can believe what he says. That was, by the way, that was a crazy focus groups because everybody talking about economics by horrible Biden, horrible Biden, horrible Biden. It's horrible. And you sit there thinking, OK, well, this election's over. And they go, what do you think about Donald Trump? And by the end of it, they were talking over each other like they couldn't talk quickly enough about why they were offended by

Donald Trump. But on abortion. And I think these focus groups are always so fascinating. We always learn things in focus groups like we did with with Heilman and Halperin's on the lady who said, you know, he's one of us. And then in 2020, Elise is with the Trumper, a conspiratorial Trumper, who said, wait, I'm not talking about abortion. That's none of my business. The thing that got me in the ones that you guys played yesterday was the libertarian with with the with, you know, the headphones on. Total libertarian. He said, wait a second. Now, wait, wait. We're so we're the government can't do anything right his view government can't do anything right and we're turning our bodies over to them it's like this is the worst thing in the world and so you get to understand why even

for some people that may not be married may not daughters, may not have a personal intimate connection. They're sitting there going, wait, well, if they can do that to women, they can do that to me. And this is really frightening when the federal government comes in and takes control of your body, takes control of your health care. Suddenly you look at what that guy, what that libertarian saying, and you start to understand why this cuts across all demographics. See, that's a consistent and rational argument. I don't know if everyone's going to make that. But if you believe that the federal government should be burned down, as Steve Bannon and others in the Trump world have said, and get rid of all departments of this and education and that

and the IRS and everything else, you can't then have a little carve out for it. Well, actually, we should have doughy old white men telling women what they should do with their bodies, too, from the United States Senate. It just doesn't work that way. So he makes a good point. Or more to a point, in Jackson, Mississippi, guys that have come off of Delta and they go to Mississippi and they're deciding to tell, you know, 25 year old women who have two children who are having a complicated pregnancy. I know best what what you should do with your body.

I mean, if that doesn't freak the hell out of everybody, then I don't know what does. Well, I thought what was interesting also, those were swing states, undecided voters, people who had voted for Trump. And what was really fascinating to me is that Trump's division had broken through. They may not watch this show. They may watch this or Fox, because if they voted for Trump, they'd probably get their news somewhere else, maybe. And still the division had broken through. You heard one voter saying, I got January 6th. I just, you know, if that could happen, what else could happen? He's so divisive. He's so mean. That had broken through as much as the denial and the avoidance

might be happening on certain networks where people get their news. So that's number one. So I think when people, as you say, tune into the election and start looking at their options, they're going to see this and be like, whoa, it's even gotten worse rather than better. And then add this abortion situation. They're going to be seeing and hearing, enduring the ramifications of what Donald Trump has done to women's health care across America, because in every state, but in many states with these bans, women are going to be talking to their doctors about the options they don't have anymore because of Donald Trump. I think I think the biggest

challenge, Donnie, is whether you talk about abortion, the radicalism of that and the divide are what Mika is talking about in the focus groups. Everybody, I'm going to divide. I think his great challenge is just the sense of exhaustion. Yeah, I was hearing from Trumpers in 2020 saying, oh, I guess I'll vote for him. I don't know. I'm so exhausted by this guy every day. It's a different fight. and these were trumpers that were saying it that was before january the 6th that was before he completely completely went went went way out there he was already pretty far out there look and we haven't even seen a campaign yet so really if you really think about the last six eight months we't seen much of him. He's in Mar-a-Lago holding court down

there. I want to go back to something Mika was talking about, bringing up January 6th and bringing that together with abortion. Safety is a big word. If you say to people, do you feel safe? Do you feel safe? Joe Biden, you can, you know, you can say everything you want about Joe Biden. He's old. He's. This is not perfect. He kind of comes on and there's like a primal safe. Like, I think I feel safe with this guy. And I think, you know, whether it's a woman and you're worried about your body or whether it's worried about, you know, revolts on the streets, there is a and I think our primal number one thing is to feel safe.

And I think Trump makes people feel unsafe as as evidenced by whether it's abortion or January 6th or other. Yeah, with Biden, there can be no quick side in this. You're not going to incite a riot. You're not going to sneak up on asking people to come armed and head to the Capitol. Still ahead on Morning Joe, the latest from Israel amid new fears that more hostages may be dead than previously believed. What Hamas leaders are saying about the ongoing negotiations. Plus, we'll get to President Biden's state visit with Japan's prime minister as the administration looks to put a focus on countering China. You're watching Morning Joe.

We'll be right back. joining us now president emeritus of the council on foreign relations richard haas he is author of the weekly newsletter home and away available on substack and we'll get to this now hamas reportedly does not have 40 living hostages who meet the criteria for an exchange under the latest ceasefire proposal. That's according to The New York Times, which cited a senior Hamas official. Negotiators had proposed a six-week ceasefire during which Hamas would release a group of 40 people, that includes women, the elderly and sick, and five female Israeli soldiers. In exchange, Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. It is not known if Israel will now demand young men and male soldiers be released,

if in fact Hamas cannot meet that criteria. The Times reports an Israeli official says Hamas' claim has been relayed to mediators who are facilitating negotiations. However, this raises fears more hostages might be dead than previously believed. As of now, Israel believes more than 100 people are still being held captive in Gaza and at least 30 hostages have died. I'm skeptical of that 100 number. I don't think they believe that because Richard, judging from what they've been saying for some time off the record, there has been a fear that Hamas, the terror group, has killed, you know, so many of these hostages. And

we said it, unfortunately, when they when they went in Hamas again, just savages, terrorists were raping these women in broad daylight. Certainly, probably raping them underground. They were never going to release them. They were never going to release them. They're terrorists. They could not let those women get in front of a bank of microphones and speak to the war crimes that were committed against them repeatedly. I don't mean to I know this sounds awfully harsh, but this is this is what U.S. officials have been fearing for four months now.

It's interesting, Joe. You know, a lot of us thought that the reason that you couldn't get a hostage deal is Hamas was holding on to the hostages for leverage. That was their only way to push them. That's the other possibility is that there's no longer hostages to give back. Already, even weeks ago, the Israelis were thinking the numbers of people who are still living was less than 75. It might be decidedly less than than than that now. So the idea of these mini hostage deals, which is what Bill Burns and others have been trying to negotiate with Gutter, it seems to me are less and less likely. And I think it just, again, the Israelis have to decide now whether to put whatever

remaining hostages are at the center of what they do, or does Bibi Netanyahu go into Rafah? And I think that conversation is essentially where the Israelis are. Donnie, you talk privately to Israeli officials, obviously publicly, they want to keep hope alive and they do hope they really do hope that they can find all these hostages. But there is some of what what Joe's saying here, which is they fear that many of those were either killed that day or have been killed in the six months since then. So much as we talk about this negotiation, so much of the burden has been placed on Israel. And yes, they have to do better with the way they're prosecuting the war.

We've said that. Yes, they have to allow more aid into Gaza. We've said that ad nauseum here. But they have someone across the table for them from them who carried out one of the worst attacks in human history on October the 7th and is holding and kill. They could release the hostages and make this go away. You know, so I think, yes, there's plenty of criticism to be levied at Israel for the way they've conducted the war. But let's not forget who they're dealing with and where this starts. Yeah, they could have done this any time over the past six months. Right. Look, you have to go back. I want to just bring bring people back to the Hamas charter, which is, of course, all about destroying Jews in the world.

Article 13 says there will never be a negotiated settlement. Jihad is the only answer. So we keep talking and we're looking for a solution. We're looking for negotiation. We're looking for a ceasefire. It's not on the table for them. And what we also take for granted is what I call the curve, that if some, God willing, these hostages are alive, that we'll get 40 and we give you hundreds of prisoners back. So the ones that did the slaughter, the ones that started this, the ones that want to destroy Western civilization, destroy Jews, Israel has to negotiate with one hand tied by the backs. But I'll go back to my original point. There is negotiation. It's in their charter. They will not negotiate. They don't want a settlement.

They want a jihad. Jihad is the answer. These are their words. But that's not on the table. The idea of Hamas has ruled itself out forever as a party or a partner. That's just not on the table. And you're right. The real question then is, can Israel one day find a partner?

And that still requires them, as savage as Hamas has been and is, to build up the possibility for other Palestinians who are willing to act fundamentally differently to coexist peacefully with a Jewish state. There is a political path. Can I ask you a question? And this is a tough question. There's two million Palestinians and I mean, two million in Gaza. And we know the tragedy that happens. My concern going forward is that so many are radicalized by no fault of their own. I mean, it starts when they're children.

They're taught in school, the hatred. And so it's not like you can just lift off this top piece. That's what always worries me going forward is how radicalizes the entire population, no matter what you do and that that i that's where i lose sleep over it well i mean i mean how much more radicalized have they become the entire population hamas has always been radical i get i think the question i have to ask is yes there's no negotiating with hamas more more of it not to just repeat the same question over and over again but until it answered, we need to repeat it.

There's no negotiating with Hamas unless you're Bibi Netanyahu, who negotiated with Hamas for years. And if you are a parent or a loved one of one of these dead hostages, you have to ask, why was Bibi Netanyahu giving cash to Hamas through Qatar three weeks before their loved one was kidnapped, raped, brutalized, and sent to the tunnels of Gaza? Why did Bibi Netanyahu turn a blind eye to the plans of October 7th for a year beforehand? Why did he turn a blind eye to the fact that he knew in 2018, along with Donald Trump, how Hamas was getting their money? And they did nothing, nothing. Yeah. I mean, just to be clear, just to reiterate, it was Hamas that perpetrated the horrific attacks on October 7th, and they alone are responsible for that carnage. At the same time, it is also true, and it appears to be that we are learning even more about this, and the international community has, you know, learned much more in the past six months, that some of the policies that Bibi Netanyahu's government has been carrying out,

you know, may have strengthened Hamas, including ignoring those reports. And we should be asking those questions. But I think moving forward, it's also a question of, to Richard's point, of, well, who will the partner be? Because you can't just wish away two million people in Gaza. And, you know, there needs to be Palestinian leadership that, yes, fundamentally acts differently, but is also allowed to sit at the negotiating table with the Israeli state. And that is, we don't have that yet. It's hard to see how you get there because, of course, you know, the campaign that Israel has prosecuted over the past six months, how can that not have a radicalizing effect on children in Gaza? So we're a long way away, but we have to have hope.

I mean, you have to look at the history of conflicts around the world, be it in Ireland or in South Africa or here. We have to have hope. You have to have hope. You have to start somewhere. And you can't have peace without justice. You can't have justice without peace. They don't mean to be trite about it. But those are very real concepts right now.

We don't have either on the ground. There seems to be no justice for these hostages, no justice for these Palestinian children. It is tragic, not just for that region, but that the world has had to watch this unfold. So we have to start somewhere. Right now, people are saying a two state solution is not possible. That's the same thing you heard. We heard in Northern Ireland. That's the same thing we heard in South Africa. That's the same thing we've heard time and time again I I will say go back and read

uh Dr Brzezinski's um uh memoirs about the Camp David Accords as you know very well Richard dead in the water was finished and at the last second uh Begin and Carter somehow figured out how to save it how to to move forward and make history. But this idea, this cynical idea that's been pushed around by the Trump administration and other other American diplomats that we can have a Middle East peace and carve out the Palestinian question. It's insanity. And it's always been insanity. I understand completely. And I'm sure you do, too. The Israelis don't want to hear any American talk about a two state solution right now. I completely get it. I would guess the queen would probably not want to hear about peace in Ireland after Lord Mountbatten got blown up.

But she shook Martin McGinnis's hand over the horizon at some point. You know, there there is there is a Palestinian authority, a younger Palestinian authority, a less corrupt Palestinian authority. The United States, Jordan, the Emiratis, the Saudis, all all all the the Middle East countries that want to go in and rebuild Gaza. There is a deal to be done over the horizon, is there not? Absolutely. And to paraphrase Churchill, a two state solution is the worst possible outcome, except for all the others. And that's where that's where we are. Two things. One is to go back to something you were saying. The Israeli policy was cynicism on stilts. Let's strengthen the hands of Hamas, a truly unacceptable part. So I'm so glad you can explain this, because this puts together what both of them were talking about.

And when when when Donnie said, well, the charter says we're going to destroy Israel. And yet Bibi Netanyahu knew that when he dealt with Hamas. And why did he do it? Explain again. He strengthened the hands of the unacceptable part of Hamas because he wanted to weaken the potential role of the potentially acceptable partner, which was the Palestinian Authority. Why? Because he has built a coalition that is predicated on the notion there can't be a Palestinian state, but we ought to keep the occupied territories for settlement. So the whole idea of legal settlements. And by the way, that didn't just happen over the past six months. That's happened since 67, since 67, one illegal settlement after

another. Netanyahu has supersized it. So that was the whole idea, was to prevent the emergence of a Palestinian partner able and willing to negotiate with Israel. So now Hamas has shown its true colors. The challenge for the future, for the Arab governments, for the United States, for I think a future Israeli government, is if you want to have negotiations, you now have to enter a long phase of what you would call pre-negotiations. It's what we did in Northern Ireland. We work with Sinn Féin, who is the political side of the provisional IRA for years, and essentially said, here's what it's going to take from you. You have to give up violence. You have to give up your arms. But if you do this, here's the potential reward. That is the process the United States and the Arab

governments led by the Saudis have to have in the Middle East. It's going to take years, if not decades. It's a long shot, but quite honestly, it is the only shot that exists. And this is, by the way, not just a favor for the Palestinians, but for the true friends of Israel. You want Israel to be a prosperous, secure Jewish and democratic state that enjoys the support of Americans and others around the world. Israel needs to do this for itself.

It's a favor. A Palestinian state at the end of the day is as much a favor for Israel as it is for the Palestinians. Does that faction exist in Gaza right now? Is there a silent faction that does not like Hamas that has some influence that could be spoken to behind the scenes? The short answer is it's silent. It's intimidating. Hamas has gained in the short run, but Hamas was a total failure before October 7th, total inability to rule. And what we're going to do, Willie, yeah, it's going to take decades, at least years, possibly a decade or longer. Also in the West Bank, we've got to build a new generation of Palestinian leadership that's

competent, that's not corrupt, that's basically able to govern. If you want to be a state, you have to show you have the capacity and the responsibility to act like one. That's going to take a long time. And October 7th, let's be honest, October 7th has made it harder. It's made it harder because it's radicalized Palestinians. It's radicalized Israelis. So no illusions here. But you've got to start because the alternative to have an endless occupation, what I call the one state non-solution, is corrosive to the DNA, the fabric of Israel. And it'll eat away at the U.S.-Israeli relationship. So you've got to start the process as difficult as it's going to be. And we're running out of time.

But, Richard, can you talk a little bit about the visit by the Japanese prime minister last night? This is really interesting. Japan is, let's be blunt, it is the single most important ally of the United States. It's democratic, one of the world's largest economies, one of the world's strongest militaries. And it is the linchpin of pushing it back against China in the South China Sea. That's why we're having today's meetings with the leadership of the Philippines. And it's the linchpin of pushing back against China on Taiwan. This is one of the great success stories of the last 75 years. We have gone from a Japan that was one of the two countries that brought about World War II to now is America's closest ally in the world and is truly the center of what we're trying to do to manage the rise of China.

And what last year, yesterday was today, the speech to the joint session of Congress. This is just one of the you know, we always think we talk about foreign policy, obviously so much of it's negative. This is one of the great positive stories of the last three quarters of the picture of normalcy right there, which we will take these days. Before we let you go, Richard, you are our golf correspondent. Right. You can't see my socks, but I have my golf socks on today. Oh, yes, you do. He actually does.

He's got his fun socks on today. Masters, a little rain this morning, a little wind for the first round of the Masters. Just going to push back the schedule a little. They should get the first round. Good things are worth waiting for. Yes, but it looks beautiful the rest of the weekend. Just going to push back the schedule a little. They should get the first round. Good things are worth waiting for. Yes, but it looks beautiful the rest of the weekend. So are you hanging in there with Rory as your pick? My emotional

pick is Rory. My golf pick is Scottie Scheffler. Scottie Scheffler is playing a level of golf that we have not seen in the world. That's John Rahm we're looking at right there. Last year's winner. This is also a little bit of tension between Liv and the PGA, which I know, Joe, is at the center.

Well, you know, I mean, Willie and I have a history. You know, 87. You know the story. Amen. Corner. Let's hear it. 87. We flipped a coin.

I was like, Willie, do you take it or do I take it? And I won. So I get to play that day. Willie was catty. We won. I never saw it coming coming i got the green jacket i'm gonna wear it on monday you know what's so great about our 15 year old 1987 masters joke we weren't thinking through it at the time that's the year famously larry my exactly with the chip in

on 11 on the last playoff and we have snatched his glory and we apologize for that larry mys a native of augusta ge Georgia, won the 1987 Masters. It just seemed the thing to do because Nicholas, of course, everybody remembers 86. Why don't we just adopt like 88? You know what's cute? You guys think the joke is 15 years old. We're getting to 17. Isn't that old?

Like next month. Does she expect that Nicholas' grandson did a hole-in-one yesterday in the par 3? Did he really? Yeah, that's right. Think about that. 17 years. You guys have been doing. Why?

Why are we doing? So much. Nine years. 88. I want an 88. I think you're really becoming the green jacket is very good. The green jacket works. Richard Haas.

Thank you so much for coming on this morning. It's great to have. I don't like to talk about it much. He's a humble. morning. It's great to have you. I don't like to talk about it much. Coming up, new data shows inflation running hotter than expected. Steve Ratner will join us to break down the latest numbers and how they might impact the Fed's timeline for cutting interest rates. Morning Joe will be right back. There's a lot of red on the futures board this morning following yesterday's large losses on wall street driven by the news that the consumer price index accelerated at a faster

than expected pace last month pushing inflation higher the new data is raising serious doubts the fed will be able to cut interest rates anytime soon. Joining us now is former Treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner. Steve Ratner, are rates going to have to go up? Can't they just raise? Are we going to have to put rates up? Because this economy is so hot. Yeah, look, the economy is hot. Inflation has come down enormously. Obviously, we're in the three percent% range. It is just stuck at the moment, and it's not getting better. I don't believe there are a few people, Larry Summers said, there was a 15% to 25% chance maybe rates would have to go up. I think that's pretty unlikely.

I think what we're looking at instead is simply delaying rates coming down. People thought rates might start to come down as soon as this June. I think that's clearly off the table. We might be looking at the fall. We might be looking at November. What happens if they raise them right now? Well, if they raise them right now, if they raise rates right now, it's obviously bad for consumers paying higher interest rates on your credit cards. Lower them. What happens if they lower them? I'm sorry. OK. Yeah. Thought again. If they lower them, you run the risk that you accelerate inflation more, that you make a hot economy even hotter. The economy is already hot. And we've been talking now for a year and a half about

the resilience of this economy. I've asked you this a dozen times. What continues to drive this economy? The economy is incredibly hot. I think it's driven by a few things. One of them have been a number of the government programs that we've put in place, the IRA bill, the climate change bill, the Build Back Better infrastructure bill, things like that, the CHIPS Act even, have created a lot of demand. When you look at what's going on out there, these facilities, for example, wind and solar power facilities are being built. Chips factories are being built. All that is stimulating the economy. And the economy has clearly outperformed what anyone thought. The second thing is, and I

don't want to get technical, but there's a theory that the economy doesn't respond as strongly as it used to to higher interest rates. For whatever set of reasons, raising rates, which is what the Fed obviously did for a good while, doesn't necessarily seem to be slowing the economy as much as people would expect. So, yeah, the economy is consistently outperforming and that shows up in the inflation data and it shows up in the possibility likelihood that rate cuts will be delayed. Steve, we're looking through some of the specifics of the inflation report, trying to make sense of why things are up so much. Car insurance is way up over 20 percent year over year. Elder care, taking care of people in your home, 15 percent. And then very specific things at the grocery store, not everything, but some things. How does a regular person like us who go shopping every day, how do you make sense of the

volatility and the fluctuations in those? Month to month, you're always going to see all kinds of funny things happening. If you look at the inflation report broadly, what happened was the prices of services, insurance, things like that were pretty strong. Services tend to be harder to get under control because they're very labor intensive. And when you also have wages going up, services tend to go up with them. Goods actually were very moderate. And in fact, what didn't get as much attention perhaps as it might have is a lot of the stuff people buy every day. Gasoline up 1.2 percent. Groceries for food at home up, I think, 1.3 percent.

So a lot of the everyday items are actually under reasonable control. It's a lot of this stuff, a lot of stuff around the edges. And the other important point, Willie, to make is that notwithstanding this, wages went up faster than inflation last month. People's purchasing power is still going up. I know nobody likes inflation and I know it's obviously got certain political implications and people don't fully appreciate that both since the beginning of the Biden administration, as well as in this current stagnation of inflation reduction, if you want to call it that, real wages, purchasing power is still going up for the average American. So on those political implications, this news obviously not very well received in the West Wing yesterday. President Biden news conference, he still

predicted he thinks there'll be a rate cut at some point this year. It's not quite clear what he's basing that off of. Feel free to weigh in. But I know there's another inflation report coming today. Tell us what we can glean from that. Well, yes, there's a second inflation report called the PCE, personal consumption expenditures. That is the measure the Fed likes better. I'm not going to get into the technicalities of how the two are calculated. Obviously, most of us look at the CPI. We'll see the PCE a little bit later today, and maybe it'll be slightly better news. But look, the overall picture is pretty clear. You had a rapid deceleration of inflation, and then we kind of got stuck. And it just doesn't seem to want to get,

you know, it's like a runner running a marathon. That last mile is the toughest, and we haven't been able to finish the marathon yet. Do you have any sense, Steve, for what it is that drives consumer sentiment and frustration? So is it the services, paying more for services, or is it when you come home from the pharmacy and you realize you've paid, I don't know, $12 for a paper towel? What is it that's really driving people batty and a little bit irrational about their views on the economy right now? I think a lot of what's driving people batty is two thirds of the people who will vote in this election did not vote the last time inflation was over four percent. You have a majority of the electorate that has never seen inflation. They are shocked by it. They don't understand it. They

don't necessarily fully appreciate their wages are also going up. And some of them actually think prices should come down. That, you know, inflation means prices go up and then prices go down. Those of us of a certain age know that's not how it works. Prices go up and hopefully they stop going up. They don't go down very often. So it was a huge shock to the American system. And I get it. And especially when it was in things like gasoline, where every time you drive down a street,

you see a poster telling you how much gasoline is going to be. That's tough for the American for the American public to understand. And it's been it is obviously one of the biggest political issues that the White House is facing is inflation. No question. Morning, Joe. Economic analyst Steve Ratner, as always. Thank you very much. And still, I mean, to get him on the Southwest. I missed the choice. I mean, I just like this, too. This is great.

He's great. He's great. I like it. It's good. It's good. It's good. All the fame. It's a lot of field.

All the fame. And today's charts were going to be about baseball. So we're going to have to do tomorrow. Let's do tomorrow. OK. OK. Thank you. See you tomorrow.

My pleasure. I mean, it's good, but I like the charts. All right.