Morning Joe - Morning Joe 4/26/23

Episode Date: April 26, 2023

A majority of voters don't want Trump back in office, polling shows

When I ran for president four years ago, I said we're in a battle for the soul of America. What is the soul of America? Freedom. Wisdom. Kindness. Empathy. Style. I'm talking about panache, man. Whispering. I wrote the bill. Just because it sounds cool. $1.9 trillion. Shaking hands, kissing babies, and getting plenty of shut-eye. Buying war bonds just to keep the Kaiser on his toes. Delaware. Trains. Those old beer cans with the bull tabs.

Whatever happened to those, man? Slipping a few candy buttons into your phosphate just to see how fast the sugar rush makes you pedal your bike with the big wheel on the front. And a healthy appreciation for the gams on Greta Garbo. I'll pledge allegiance to her any day. Which reminds me of the most important thing of all. Naked with your best gal in the back of the drive-in picture show. Go for it, Jack.

What the heck was I talking about? I'm Joe Biden, and that's why I'm running for re-elected. But first, I'm going to watch the Wheel of Fortune. Give me a bow, Pat. And hello, Ms. Vanna. Oh, man. Oh, my God. That was so funny. Keeping the Kaiser on his toes, man. Oh, my God. That was so funny. Keeping the Kaiser on his toes, man. The gams on Greta Garbo. That was my favorite. Too funny. That was good.

Well, they're making fun of Joe for one thing, and that's his age. Oh, yeah. It's pretty funny. That's not so bad. Good morning. Get home for it, Jack. It's not right. All right. It's Wednesday and we're

really, it's been a long week already. First of all, does anyone think it should be Friday? Yes. Please raise your hand. Always. Oh my God. Along with Joe, Willie, and me, we have the host with Joe, Willie, and me. Wow. We have the host of way too early, White House Bureau Chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire.

He agrees it should be Friday. Washington Bureau Chief for USA Today, Susan Page, and Chief White House Correspondent for The New York Times, Peter Baker. So, and most people you see on the screen, very sorry. They're actually here here and it's only getting worse we apologize yeah real real we're always sorry so Willie go take them off I just want to talk to Willie I want to talk to Willie one second guys we'll be right there we don't want to destroy their career Willie so I got this Willie I got this. I mean, they'll forgive you. You're you're our escort. So in and out of detention.

What is coming out of your mouth? I'm worried. No, no. It's just I had a friend call me last night. Go ahead. I'm going to see you some polls of Trump is a supporter of Trump. And as I look at this and this is this is what he showed me, that Donald Trump's favorability among Republicans. Yeah. Members. We talked about a little among Republicans has hit an all-time high. Well, right. There you go. In Republicans, yeah. Hit an all-time high. Now, he thought, let's just look at this.

He thought that this would send people that watch this show and people who want Democrats to win into a spiral. And I said, dude, you don't understand. You think that Democrats are still scared of Donald Trump. No, no, they want him to win. You think you're owning the libs? You're only making libs as comfortable as if you were smoking a big bong in your front yard, playing hacky sack, wearing a Che Guevara T-shirt. Like this is what they want.

This is the natural order of things. Because look at this next poll, Willie, from the same group. Do you want Trump to be president again? Look at the independent numbers. Twenty nine percent. Yes. Sixty eight percent. No, I'm not exactly sure when it happened, Willie. But at some point, Donald Trump went from being the big bad wolf for liberals and making them like curl up in a fetal position under their desks. Like they didn't even like have the energy to go out and play hacky sack on the front yard, front lawns or in the street. At some point went from there to now where they're happy when he does well in Republican polls

because they know it means they're going to win. They're not owning the libs. They're saying, here you go, libs. Here's the White House for four more years. Yeah, whatever nerves progressives and Democrats may have about Joe Biden running for reelection are assuaged when they think about, oh, hopefully it will be Donald Trump on the other side. Obviously, they want Donald Trump to be president again, but they believe that Joe Biden not only beat him once, but can beat him again because of

the very numbers you're showing right there. You cannot win a national election with 29 percent support among independents. Maybe that changes over the next year and a half. There's a lot of road ahead of us and a lot of things can change. But you just can't win a general election, a national general election with 29 percent support among independents. And by the way, that Republican number isn't where he used to be either. Twenty seven percent of Republicans may be looking around a little bit saying, I don't want this guy to be president. I may have taken a waiver on him once or twice, but I don't want to do it again. But I think you're right, Joe, to focus on that independent number. That's where presidential elections are won and lost.

Yeah. And that that second poll was a mayor's poll. Jonathan Lemire, though, this is a thing again. And I know there are many Democrats who are concerned about Joe Biden. They think he's too old. They don't think he can do this. They don't think... You just go, though. And I keep saying it because this election's not going to be won. And I want to get our other panelists in to talk about this because they'll agree.

The election's not won across 50 states. It's literally won in the suburbs of Atlanta, which will never, and I never say never, will never go for Donald Trump again. The suburbs of Atlanta, which will never, and I never say never, will never go for Donald Trump again. The suburbs of Philadelphia that will never, ever go for Donald Trump in 2024. The suburbs of Detroit that will never go for Donald Trump. Wisconsin, never. Donald Trump, if nominated, he rebuilds that blue wall that we kept talking about during the Obama era, that that blue wall in the Electoral College that Republicans would

never be able to break. And why am I saying this so much at six oh06 in the morning in April of 2007, because we know the die is cast when it comes to Donald Trump in these areas. Same thing with Arizona. The guy can't win there. It was a lot of these races were close. They've broken against him and he's become more radicalized. And you look at these numbers, the very numbers, Jonathan, that he should have been building up. He's been tearing down. The damage is complete now. Yeah, he won in 2016, of course, losing the popular vote. But he won because he was able to switch enough voters in the blue wall states, the Pennsylvania, the Wisconsin, the Michigan, those sort of those independent, those swing voters and some disaffected Democrats who, you know, perhaps were voting against Hillary Clinton, but decided, hey, let's give the new guy

a chance here. Let's try for change. He did. Some of those voters that do, as you say, traditionally decide elections, some of them broke for Trump, at least enough of them broke for Trump in 16 that he won that day. Those voters broke hard against him in 2020 because of his handling of the pandemic, because of his mismanagement, frankly, and the controversial headlines that he spewed nearly every day while in office. And the theory of the case here, certainly from the White House, from Democrats I speak to, is they have a really, really hard time seeing those voters breaking back to Trump in 24 and polling right there bears that out, that they're simply not going to give Trump and likely other Republicans that chance, considering how their positions are only growing more extreme on things like abortion and guns and schools and the like. So that is this is a race. If it's a Trump Biden rematch, the White House feels really confident about it. It also negates the age issue

since Trump's only a couple of years younger than Biden. It gets more complicated if the Republicans come to their senses, let's say, and nominate someone else. It gets more complicated. But right now, if it's Biden, Trump, the White House loves their chances. And there's no evidence whatsoever that it's going to be someone else at this point, based on the polling and the way Ron DeSantis is, I guess it's a rollout or maybe a preview of his campaign is going so far. Susan Page, I can almost hear 2016 Hillary Clinton campaign staffers saying, be careful what you wish for. We wanted Donald Trump, too. But this is very different here. Seven years later, this is a man who was in office for four years, who has been

indicted once and could be indicted several more times before Election Day. So how is this campaign, the way it's setting up right now, how does this look different to you even than 2020 when these two guys ran against each other? Well, I think it does look different. For one thing, Joe Biden will be running on his record of his first term. And, you know, we may also have a credible third party candidate, a ticket running in some key states that could change some of the calculations that are making this landscape look pretty good for for Joe Biden. Just one other thing to keep in mind. We don't know what's going to be happening with the economy as we head into this into this campaign. And we see this nervousness, this turmoil in the banking sector that may be increasing the possibility that we have a recession of some sort. So there are, you know, elections are never straight lines.

But I think it is correct, as Jonathan was saying, that the Democrats feel pretty good about where President Biden is at this moment of his launch. Susan is so right. You never know what's going to happen between now and then. A recession could happen. Democrats like to hand ring, too. We're, you know, that's how it goes.

Oh, well, it is what they do. But at the same time, again, anybody but Donald Trump would be better news for Republicans if they wanted to win. And Peter Baker, I mean, think about it. Think about Joe Biden wins in 2020. Since that time, you've had Donald Trump election denying. You've had January 6th.

You've had him talking about terminating the Constitution. You've had him indicted in New York, an indictment in Georgia likely to come in the next few months, an indictment in the documents case likely to come. These are things, again, that break in the worst possible way for Republicans, because once again, with every one of those indictments, Donald Trump breaks the law, then he gets indicted, then his numbers go up in the Republican Party while his numbers with independents go down. It is right now just a very toxic mix for Republicans who want to win in 2024. Yeah, obviously, a lot of Republicans are worried about exactly what you're saying.

On paper, this doesn't look good for Republicans. But let's also remember there are some head-to-head matchup polls that don't look great for Democrats. I mean, right now, there are a couple of them actually showing Trump in a head to head matchup with Biden a point or two or a few points ahead. There are some showing Biden ahead by just a few points, but within the margin of error. This is a very competitive race right now, according to these matchup polls, even though on paper, as you say, maybe it shouldn't be. You know, the logic of presidential politics would suggest that an indicted, twice impeached, defeated president who never once won a majority in the popular vote, never once had the support of a majority of Americans in the in any poll, a mainstream poll anyway, would not be competitive in an election. And yet he is within the margin of error or even a couple of points ahead in a number of these test polls so far. Now, it is April, the year before an election date. Anything can happen.

More indictments, I think, change the dynamic. We'll see if Republicans still stick with him after two, three, four indictments. If it comes to that, that's a little different than Alan Bragg's hush money indictment, which they have been able to brush off or even use to galvanize their supporters. We don't know that that means Donald Trump could continue to do as well as he's doing. But the flip side is also true. If you're a Democrat, the worry you have is that something could happen late in the fall of 2024 that changes that dynamic in those blue states, as we're talking about. It didn't take very much to change things in 2016. The same thing could happen in 2024. Look what happened with Mitch McConnell. He trips, he falls, he's out of action

for several weeks. He's 81 years old. President Biden is 80 years old. What if something were to happen in October of 2024 and suddenly the dynamic looks very different? So I would be very cautious about suggesting that we have any sense of how this race is going to go. We don't know about things like physical age. We don't know things about entitlements. We don't know what's going to happen between now and November of next year. Well, at the end, Joe Biden is 80. Yeah. Donald Trump will be 77 very soon. So it's not like we're talking about a spring chicken here. No, we're talking about who is in good shape. A lot of moving factors potentially on both sides, to Peter's point, that despite Joe Biden officially jumping into the 2024 race, former President Donald Trump appears focused on his potential Republican rival, Ron DeSantis.

Trump's campaign released this new ad. Ron DeSantis was struggling big time in his primary race for governor of Florida. Polls revealed DeSantis was struggling big time in his primary race for governor of Florida. Polls revealed DeSantis was failing so bad he was losing by a staggering 17 points. Then DeSantis was saved by the endorsement of President Trump. Trump's support was so powerful. Just two days after the endorsement, DeSantis took a commanding lead and it propelled him to being elected governor. I'd like to thank our president for standing by me when it wasn't necessarily the smart thing to do. You're welcome, Ron.

Unfortunately, instead of being grateful, DeSantis is now attacking the very man who saved his career. Isn't it time DeSantis remembers how he got to where he is? Make America great again. Big league. So good. Build the wall. Then Mr. Trump said, you're fired. I love that part. Truth is, there's only one person who can make America great again.

That's actually funny in there. You know, yeah. Willie, it's not true that Trump is a better shot of beating Biden. But I don't think we're going to get going to see Ron DeSantis against Biden if this continues the way it is. It seems that DeSantis is just everything he's doing is wrong. I mean, is he it seems counterintuitive. He says he's going to stay in Tallahassee until the legislative session's over. He's flying across the world, meeting world leaders. It seems like he skips the flooding in Fort Lauderdale. Yeah, just ignores the flooding

in Fort Lauderdale. It's hard to imagine how anybody could botch botch the advantages that he had just a month or two ago. It is hard to watch. We've talked about it many times. Ron DeSantis, when he was running all those years ago, insisting his children build that wall with those little red blocks the kids play with. But Donald Trump has him dead to right on this, doesn't he? I mean, this is the guy who depended on Donald Trump, who leaned on Donald Trump, who showered praise on Donald Trump and now is thinking about or perhaps going to run against him. What's the strategy? What's the contrast? How are you going to go after Donald Trump? If you're not, you don't have much of a chance. Donald Trump knows he's the only real threat. He's doing what he did to Jeb Bush all those years ago, which is to vaporize the primary threat to your candidacy. And so here we are now.

And yes, Ron DeSantis not making great moves rolling out his campaign, if that's in fact what he's doing, including a couple of weeks ago, John, signing a six week abortion ban, which will certainly not be helpful if he ever makes it to a general election. No, I mean, he is shrinking his pool of possible voters. And that's why we're here. So many Republican donors are sounding the alarm here. Those who don't want to back Trump anymore, who say we do need to turn the page. We need a fresh voice. Those forces were a few months ago coalescing around DeSantis. But now there's a lot of second thoughts because they feel like DeSantis is really hurting himself in a general election. I mean, that ad is pretty devastating to use the

old clip there. Mr. Trump says you're fired. Mr. Trump says build that wall. That's really tough stuff. And we've seen the Trump campaign outmaneuver DeSantis so far. In fact, the former president's advisors are considering that Donald Trump, while Ron DeSantis is overseas, might go to Tallahassee and talk to Florida lawmakers there. That's a possibility that he's trying to steal more support from DeSantis's backyard.

And that's why there are other Republicans looking around right now saying, you know what? Maybe there is a lane here. Maybe someone else can be the Trump alternative. And that's why we are anticipating in coming weeks, whether it's Senator Scott, Tim Scott, you know, Vice President Pence, others who may in fact take who seem to be wavering, may in fact take the plunge because I see DeSantis is wounded. Right. And in some ways, for a lot of Republicans, Joe, Ron DeSantis is a microcosm of what they have created, like they've created this, you know, being who does what he does, whether he's indicted or has more indictments coming. Whatever you think about January 6th, whatever you think about his presidency,

you're kind of stuck in his shadow and you can't get out unless you, of course, insult the base. Well, but the thing is, look to Georgia. I mean, I know that a guy, a guy, but Republicans don't know it. I know that recorded Donald Trump. I know. Secretary of State who had supported Trump previously. A guy who recorded Donald Trump and is going to be responsible for Trump ultimately being indicted there. Wins in a landslide in the Republican primary when Trump is desperate to get him and Brian Kemp, the governor, defeated there. So you can go up against Donald Trump in a primary and end up winning.

And just look to Georgia as a prime example. But, you know, Susan Page, let's talk about DeSantis for a second and follow up on what Jonathan Muir was saying. Yeah, six weeks ago, a lot of people were thinking this guy's got it. He's going to be able to win. And usually when you're a governor, it's great because you can do what you want to do. But what is Ron DeSantis done as governor? I mean, he's he's decided to pick every fight he can pick, first of all, with Disney, which makes him look stupid. It really does outside of a very small base. And Bob Iger is eating his lunch every day and laughing at him.

You know, a six-week abortion ban. And that abortion ban came after Kansas, after Wisconsin, after the 2022 political earthquake of Republicans losing because of abortion and a lot of key races. And yet Ron DeSantis plows forward with a six week abortion ban that even scares top Republican donors. He's really damaged himself. You know, maybe his strength is his weakness. You know, his strength is he had this big reelection in Florida. He has a very strong majority in the Florida legislature that enables him to deliver on his agenda. But as you say, the strength of his agenda, and especially on the six-week abortion ban

that he signed late at night without press coverage, just tweeting a picture of it afterwards, tells you that, as with Trump, things that strengthen him among the Republican base could create huge problems for him if and when he makes it to a general election. All right. We've got a packed show ahead. We're going to take a look at how President Biden's 2024 campaign hit the ground running on the heels of yesterday's reelection announcement.

Plus, during closing arguments in their seditious conspiracy trial yesterday, attorneys for members of the Proud Boys put the blame for the January 6th Capitol attack squarely on Donald Trump. And Tucker Carlson's ouster from Fox News is being criticized. Oh, OK. Yeah, there's very much a lot of anger about it. Really? By Russia's foreign minister.

Huh? We'll show you those new remarks. What? Also ahead, award-winning actor Liv Schreiber is our guest this morning. We'll have a look at his new Disney Plus series about the people who helped hide Anne Frank and her family during World War II. And actors Oscar Isaac and Rachel Brazahan will join us with a preview of their brand new Broadway production. You're watching Morning Joe. We'll be right back. Good morning, Joe.

Nice shot of a white house at 625 a.m. And we're bringing in President of the Council of Foreign Relations, Richard Haass. We're going to get to really the smart stuff in a second, Richard. But first, let's talk sports. And Jonathan Lemire. Jonathan Lemire. Move aside 27 Yankees, right? Move aside Gas House Gang, right?

All right. We got the little engine that could, or as we call them in Boston, the mighty mountain of mediocrity. It rose a couple of feet higher again last night. But Jared Duran, who came back with a new body, a new swing. Yeah. And just bases loaded last night. Take it, take it, Lemire. Here he is, this kid coming out of nowhere this year. There is a highly touted prospect a couple years ago. Career didn't start the way we wanted. His most memorable play was when he didn't move on an inside the park home run, and he was hitting about a buck 80. But this year, he has changed his stance. He is a great athlete, and he's hitting the ball. A grand

slam last night. Sox beat the Orioles, and we continue our commitment to hovering right about one game over.500, Joe. That seems to be where the Red Sox want to be this year. And Corey Kluber, who I was ready to send out to pasture, pitched well last night. You've been a defender. Yeah, no, no. He did right there. I mean, we will always be one game over.500. One game over.500. Our one game under.500 or at.500. Are one game under 500 or at 500? You look at the Yankees, though, and I'm looking at a 13-11 team, Willie, and you know what I'm looking at?

Two games over 500. I'm looking at Secretariat, like, going out of the gate at the Kentucky Derby and letting Sham and everybody else think that, like, you know, that he just doesn't have it. You guys are going to end up beating everybody in the division by 20, 25 games. This Yankee team is great. And anything under 110 wins is a big, big disappointment for this team. Just let him go. Let him go.

Just let him go. They're going to be the equivalent of Secretariat by 31 lengths at the Belmont. That's what Joe's calling right here. No doubt. You know, they're feeling pretty mediocre, too. If you look at the bottom of the AL East right now, it's the Yankees and the Red Sox. Everybody obviously looking up at the Rays, but the Orioles are playing well. We've said this at the beginning of the year.

The Jays are good, too. The Yankees, Garrett Cole looks great. And beyond that, they look utterly mediocre. So far, 24 games in, but it's always time to worry. Well, it's not too strange. The Rays finally lost. And the fact that everyone in New York has already moved away from baseball and everyone's focusing on the Knicks in tonight's game,

that tells you all you need to know. And the Knicks are the hope of New York sports rather than the Yankees. It's a telling statement. That hurts. That's really dark. Do we have any clips from the Knicks, Alex? They play tonight. We have to reset the Knicks. Oh, it's game five tonight.

They're doing well. And I guess the Celtics pushed to game six, Lemire? Yeah, disaster. Yeah, Trey Young hits the shot. Look at this shot, Joe. We're going to show it here. And this is basically from the logo. This is 30-odd feet.

That's the game winner. So Celtics were up three. Oh! Yeah, Celtics were up three games to one. Should have closed us out at home. The Hawks' second-best player was suspended. Didn't even play. And they blew a late double-digit lead.

Credit to Trey Young. He was great. So they have to go back to a game six digit lead. Credit to Trae Young. He was great. So they have to go back to a game six and just complicates their path going forward. But yes, the Knicks up three games to one go to Cleveland tonight for a closeout. If they can't, they'll get a shot at MSG to do it. All right. All right. So let's actually talk to Richard for what he's here for. Yesterday, we heard from Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, who commented on Tucker Carlson's ouster from Fox News. Take a look. Perhaps it would be useful to consider how things are with freedom of speech in the United States.

I've heard that Tucker Carlson has left Fox News. It's curious news. What is this related to? One can only guess. But clearly, the wealth of views in the American information space has suffered as a result. I mean, Richard, it is extraordinary. It really is. I mean, you have Russian television offering him a job as soon as he's fired. Now you have the Russian foreign minister talking about this situation. And, you know, we could laugh and roll our eyes about it. I don't think it's funny. This isn't a laughing matter. There are journalists here that are not journalists. There are people who put themselves out as journalists

who have newsletters, who you read the newsletters, they are literally, literally picking up Russian propaganda that spread from the Kremlin and publishing it for American audiences and finding receptive audiences on the far right and the far left. Basically, anybody who hates Joe Biden are just lapping all of this Russian propaganda. They're holding a Wall Street Journal reporter.

Yeah, true. It's going on. The good news is that at the moment, they're still at the margins. Russia's not winning the war either on the battlefield, much less throughout Europe or in the United States. But Lavras said something else interesting about journalists yesterday when he was asked about the Wall Street Journal journalist, also suggesting that the legal process has to go through. There are channels for dealing for such things that essentially was hinting at the possibility of an exchange down the road. And I took that as an interesting signal, Joe.

Oh, wow. All right. You have a you have something on Northern Ireland talking about questions I was asking when I talked to President Clinton and Secretary of State Clinton, Tony Blair, everybody else. What can we learn from Northern Ireland? What can it teach us about ending the Ukraine war? A lot of questions. That question elicited even more questions. I'm really curious to hear your thoughts on it, since you've been involved in that process as well. Yeah, Northern Ireland turned out to be one of the few examples of successful diplomacy. As you know, you were just over that way, just marked the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement. And I was George Mitchell's successor, so I spent a lot of time

working on that, and obviously now spending a lot of time working on Ukraine. And oddly enough, I think there are some parallels. For example, one of the things the Northern Ireland agreement didn't try to do was solve everything. It didn't try to deal with so-called final status issues. Would you ever have an Irish unification or anything like that? And I think that's in some ways part of the wisdom of diplomacy for Ukraine and Russia. Don't try to deal with every last territorial issue, final status of that. Don't try to deal, say, with the disposition of all the ethnic Russian people living in certain places now controlled by Ukraine. But try to get a ceasefire now, which is what again happened in Northern Ireland. You got a ceasefire first, then you got the sides to give up their weapons and so forth.

But again, do it sequentially. Don't essentially try to do it all at once, but instead do what you can. And then over time, it might take years. Indeed, in the case of Ukraine, it would take years, just like it did in Northern Ireland. Try to do it sequentially. The other big thing with Northern Ireland I thought that was really smart with the British, Joe, is they essentially told the IRA at the time, there's no way you're going to shoot your way to power, but we will open up a political process where you'll get some of what you want, but not all of it. And I think it's the same message with Russia. No way you're going to be able to use military force to realize your agenda. But we are prepared one day to support a negotiation here. And I think that, again, is the way to maybe structure diplomacy here. So, Richard, what's your sense of what Putin,

what Russia is willing to do in a negotiation? I think the Ukrainians, as you know, as well as anybody would say this is not a reasonable partner. We can't have a negotiation with somebody whose stated goal is to reclaim all of its territory. They want it all. So what do you do with a partner like that? Well, that'll be the adversary like that. Well, first of all, somebody whose stated goal is to reclaim all of its territory. They want it all. So what do you do with a partner like that? Well, that'll be the adversary like that. Well, first of all, it's understandable why Ukraine would say that given the war and the atrocities. You know, the problem, though, is it's like Rabin once said, you have to make peace with your enemies, not your friends, even very unsavory enemies. So I think you test the Russians. And it turns out

if there is unreasonable, as many of us think, then I actually think it makes it less difficult to maintain Western support for the war. But I would say let's test it and let's put some things on the table ultimately and see what the Russians are willing to do. It may be that at this point they're unwilling. Maybe they say, well, actually, they would make certain compromises. They're feeling the pressure a little bit on the battlefield, manpower. They're feeling the pressure economically. They're concerned about the so-called rights of Russian ethnics in Ukraine. My instincts are to explore it. And again, either you have some progress or if you don't, OK, then you've exposed them. And you've also shown the Chinese who have put forward their peace proposal, they can't deliver anything.

So I don't see there's a big, big risk in at least exploring diplomacy here. So Richard, let's talk about how much is riding on this Ukraine's spring offensive, which we think could start at any at any time. Some conflicting signals about whether they'll try to make Crimea part of that. The U.S. has sent up red flags suggesting they don't think that would be a great idea. They just don't think it would be met with much success as well as as it could push Putin into new, darker places. But if the counteroffensive doesn't go as well as last summer's did, what does that mean for the war going forward? I think the next few months are going to be critical. And if the offensive does not turn about, if it turns out to be really successful, Ukraine starts gaining a lot of

yardage, a lot of mileage there, then I think people say, great, let's continue with this. If, however, it doesn't, we simply don't know. But if it doesn't, then I think pressure will grow to think about negotiations, to basically say, rather than a second, a third, a fourth set of fighting seasons, very hard to sustain militarily, economically, and the rest, I think then pressure will grow and say, OK, let's see if we can't get some version of a ceasefire that militarily, economically, and the rest, I think then pressure will grow and say, OK, let's see if we can't get some version of a ceasefire that militarily will stop things there. And then we'll try to use diplomacy and sanctions over time to liberate the rest of Ukrainian

territory. No one's challenging the ends. The idea that Ukraine needs to go back, other than Russia, go back to 1991. The question is means. Is military force going to be the means of liberation? We'll find out in the next few months if that's viable. If so, great. If not, then I think we have to look to other tools. And I think that'll become the conversation in the United States, in Europe, and reluctantly, but inevitably, in Ukraine as well. All right. Let's turn to South Korea, which is responding to concerns stemming from the leaked documents that suggest the U.S. spies on them and other allies. Speaking to NBC News, South Korea's president said it will not affect the relationship between the countries, saying,

this matter is no reason to shake the ironclad trust that supports the U.S.-South Korea alliance because it is based on shared values like freedom. Peter Baker, your thoughts on this and on whether there's any impact with the state dinner? Well, of course, yes. As you can see, President Yoon arrived at the White House this morning around 10 a.m. They're going to have a bilateral meeting and followed by a press conference, a joint press conference in the state dinner tonight. So, look, you know, they're going to put on a nice show. They're going to make sure that nobody sees any cracks in the alliance. They have a lot of important issues to talk about, including how to how to guarantee South Korean security in the face of, you know, continued North Korean threat. And I think

that you'll see you'll see them play down any any impact from this leak at this point. I agree with Peter. I think the much bigger issue is going to be South Korean insecurity. It's a combination of North Korea's relentless buildup of their nuclear forces and their missile forces. And second of all, the threat towards the end of the Trump administration to pull U.S. forces, the twenty eight thousand,500 or so U.S. forces still in South Korea, to pull them out if South Korea didn't spend more in defense and give us what the Trump administration wanted on trade. And ever since then, the South Koreans have been looking for what's called a strategic reassurance. And I think the centerpiece of this visit is going to probably be the United States

promising that there'll be more visits of nuclear capable systems around South Korea. And second of all, that we will give them a larger, more visible role in decision making. So if, for example, the next time there's a crisis and the question of North Korean nuclear use comes up or whatever, South Korea will be very much part of the process of deciding what the United States and South Korea can do. This is so reminiscent of what went on with the United States and Europe in the 50s and 60s, when de Gaulle and others said, will you ever trade New York for Paris? Can we trust you? What we're beginning to see is the same insecurity in Seoul.

And the big thing will be if Donald Trump wins in 2024, this issue will go from the backdrop to the foreground in a New York minute. All right. Coming up, Israel is celebrating its 75th anniversary amid some of the deepest social divisions in the nation since its founding. We'll get a live report from Jerusalem straight ahead. Morning Joe, we'll be right back. Welcome back to Morning Joe. Look at that beautiful sunrise in Washington, D.C. It is 43 past the hour and today marks Israel's 75th Independence Day, usually a unifying moment for the nation. It's now marked with uncertainty. The country is still enduring the fallout of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's plan to overhaul the judiciary system as the nation is also facing massive demographic, political and social shifts.

Joining us live from Jerusalem, NBC News correspondent Josh Letterman. Josh? Mika, we've been listening throughout the morning to the sound of Israeli fighter jets roaring over the holy city of Jerusalem on this 75th Independence Day. And this day in Israel is always one of celebration, of patriotism. Israelis taking to the streets, firing off fireworks and silly string into the air. Those fighter jets, a reminder of Israel's triumphs over its many external threats during its short history. But this year, for the first time, Israel's biggest threats are not from the outside, but from within. The new government headed by David Van Goren is installed in Tel Aviv. The birth of Israel in 1948. For Jews, a jubilant return to a homeland.

For Palestinians, the Nakba, the catastrophe, a homeland destroyed. 75 years later, Israel is at a crossroads, more divided than ever. This time about the country's democratic future. The current government's sharp shift to the right and consolidation of power raising painful questions about what Israel will look like at 100. We are fighting for our democracy. We don't call it illiberal democracy. We call it de facto dictatorship. For much of Israel's history, the question of democracy centered on whether the growing Palestinian population would become the majority, ruled by a Jewish minority. But along the way, things shifted. Now it's the ultra-Orthodox population growing faster than any other.

The issue of whether there will be a majority of Arabs or Jews, it's going to be Jews. But what kind of Jews? What kind of a country is this going to be? Census data shows the average ultra-Orthodox woman in Israel has 6.6 children. Secular women, just two. The ultra-Orthodox population is growing at such a fast pace that its share in the population is doubling every generation, every 25 years. Some economists say that's unsustainable because many ultra-Orthodox don't work or serve in the military, pursuing a life of religious study instead, leaving a shrinking share of the population shoring up Israel's economy and security.

First of all, they are our brothers, they are Jews. But of course we should find a way to send them into the labor force. Chaim Goldberg is a photographer whose work centers on his own community, the Orthodox. He says Orthodox people do a lot for Israel that secular people often won't, like first aid, charity, and recovering bodies after terror attacks. He doubts Israel really wants all the Orthodox to serve in the army. One more fault line in a society showing cracks. This barrier was built more than two decades ago to wall off the occupied West Bank.

But it has become a reminder that while many people share this land, the divisions here are deeply entrenched. It's one of the most hard things to be living without an identity. Ahed Ezziman is a Palestinian born in Jerusalem, but who makes his art in the West Bank. This is how I see myself, not behind the wall, not in Jerusalem, not in the West Bank. I'm just flying over the city. He says the current far-right government actually makes him hopeful that it will force the world to see Israel for what it is. I think this is the beginning of the end of Israel,

if this government will stay in charge. Is that a good thing or a bad thing? It's a good thing for the Palestinians, definitely. On Israel's 75th birthday, tough questions about its future. What's the worst case scenario if Israel stays on its current path? The end of Israel. Back in Jerusalem, Chaim has discovered something new of late coming into focus in his lens. He says, until now,

if I'd pass a torn flag, I'd think nothing of it, just throw it away. But today, it has a different meaning about how Israel's society is completely torn apart. From Israel to the West Bank to the Gaza Strip, it is difficult to overstate the level of deep frustration and pessimism over what this situation has come to. But when you ask people about their

future, nobody that we spoke to, Israeli, Palestinian, Orthodox, secular, nobody has given up hope. Mika? NBC's Josh Letterman, live in Jerusalem. Thank you very much for that report. Richard Haass, we heard a little bit there from Josh's reporting about the internal divisions in the country, the Palestinian point of view about the strength of the Israeli government. Talk about those internal challenges, but also the external challenges the country faces right now. First of all, Mika, I thought that was a sensational report, what Josh Letterman just did.

It really was. Look, so much of the, when we think about Israel over the last 75 years, we focused on external challenges, you know, Egypt, Syria, the very, you know, the October, and so forth, starting in 1948. And Israel still faces the external challenges out of Syria and obviously Iran. But what Josh did, and I think correctly, is focused on the internal. And there's two types. One is the Palestinian issue and the chances for a so-called two-state solution, where you'd have a Palestinian state and Israel living side by side, the chances of that are, they're on life support.

Something that we focused on, the diplomacy for decades, is right now there's just zero to work with. The Israelis aren't there politically. Palestinians are divided between Hamas and the people in the West Bank. And then you've got these internal, and that's what's new. We've seen these protests over the judicial proposed reform. But then also what you're seeing in the demographic splits. He talked about the ultra-Orthodox. He didn't mention the large Russian influx, who are also much less liberal. So what you're seeing are people out in the streets fighting for the future of Israel.

Will this remain a liberal democracy, a liberal secular democracy? Increasingly, maybe not. And so this is a country meeting its moment of Israel. Will this remain a liberal democracy, a liberal secular democracy? Increasingly, maybe not. And so this is a country meeting its moment of truth. We talk about it a little bit here after January 6th, and we'll talk about it in terms of 24 that we're facing here. We have our 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence coming up in three years. We're facing some of our moment of truth. This is Israel facing its moment of truth much sooner and much starker than anybody imagined. Richard Haass, thank you very much for that insight. And still ahead on Morning Joe, the latest on the mounting legal trouble for former President Donald Trump.

The Manhattan district attorney is seeking to block the former president from discussing evidence related to his recent indictment. Meanwhile, in a trial in a separate civil lawsuit against Trump, it's underway right now in New York City. We'll break down yesterday's opening statements. Morning Joe will be right back. This ain't no fooling around. No time for dancing. Oh, lovey dovey. I ain't got room for that now. Transmit the message to the receiver. Hope for an answer someday.

A few minutes before the top of the hour, time now for a look at the morning papers. We begin in Tennessee, where the Leaf Chronicle reports Governor Bill Lee will ask lawmakers to hold a special legislative session focused on gun reform. Thousands of protesters have been calling for stricter gun laws since a shooter killed three adults and three kids last month at a Nashville elementary school. In Ohio, the Blade has a front page feature on East Palestine residents feeling like they are in limbo. A Norfolk Southern train derailed in that town nearly three months ago, spilling toxic chemicals. Residents say they're still worried about long-term effects and are unsure about how to move on. The Environmental Protection Agency says it could take another two to three months to remove the contaminated soil.

Cleaning up the chemicals that spilled in two nearby creeks could take even longer. It's already been a long time. And the Kennebec Journal reports children in Maine are still feeling the impacts of the pandemic. New data shows the number of kids who went to the hospital for suicide attempts increased between 2020 and 2022. Chronic absenteeism also rose last school year and more than 2,100 students were confirmed to be homeless.