Morning Joe - Morning Joe 5/1/25

Episode Date: May 1, 2025

Trump blames Biden for U.S. economy slowing

Right now, and I told you before, they're having tremendous difficulty because their factories are not doing business. They made a trillion dollars with Biden, a trillion dollars, even a trillion won with Biden selling this stuff. Much of it we don't need. You know, somebody said, oh, the shelves are going to be open. Well, maybe the children will have two dolls instead of 30 dolls, you know? And maybe the two dolls will cost a couple of bucks more than they would normally do.

Okay. President Trump yesterday acknowledging that there actually may be shortages on some goods because of this terrorist on China, Joe. It's like, just get one doll. Well, I mean, you know, our dear friends at the New York Post, and I know that a lot of us call them their dear friends, it is, after all, the paper record for Morning Joe. Skimp on the Barbie, Willie Geist, come on, they've done it again.

The headline writers at the Post have done it again. We've talked about this for a long time, Joe. I wanna go into one of those meetings, the headline meetings, right? Donald Trump or anybody says something, they race in there, they get a Zoom going, a Teams meeting, a whiteboard, and they, just best idea wins.

And today, best idea, skimp on the Barbie. Well done, New Yorkoski. Basically Donald Trump's saying you spoiled little brats are only getting two dolls this year. Yeah. And it's gonna cost more. Deal with it. Rather than 10.

I think it's more than dolls. With us we have the co-host of our fourth hour, contributing writer at the Atlantic, John Hillemere. US special correspondent for BBC News and the host of the Rest is Politics podcast. Cady K. is with us, former Treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst. Steve Ratner is here and co-founder of Axios, Mike Allen.

So Joe, we're still sort of pouring through all the economic news that came through yesterday and how the president is spinning it. Well, and that's why we have Steve Ratner. He studied economics in college, so we don't have to. And he's going to tell us all about that in one second. I do, Willie, though, want to go back to it. I saw Ali talking about it. They had their cabinet meeting, which we can get into later if we choose to or not.

But I thought an extraordinary moment happened there, and that was when the a dizzying rise and fall for Elon Musk's star in Washington, D.C. over the past, what, three months? I mean, think about it. Three months ago, he was considered the most powerful person, and he was written this way, most powerful non-elected official in the history of the U.S. government, richest man in the world, Tesla top, I mean just top prices in the world.

Now, yesterday he's leaving town and he's lost, reports are, at least 125 billion dollars of his fortune personally, still extraordinarily rich. The New York Times also has reported this past week, based on studies, that Dozier's mistakes, errors, and actions will end up costing taxpayers about $120 billion or so, and you compare that to the so-called savings, it's a wash. You look at how he became such a political liability. This guy, most powerful person in the world supposedly, became such a huge liability. The Wisconsin race, he was just crushed in the Wisconsin race. 71% decline in Tesla's earnings over the quarter.

And we just saw the headline, Wall Street Journal saying it, Tesla's denying it, but the Wall Street Journal's not going to be running this as their lead story this morning. If it's not true, the Tesla board has began a search for a CEO to replace Elon Musk. All this, Willie, all this in three months, it's almost as if Washington always wins. And the lasting image of Elon Musk's time in Washington, if it is in fact coming to an end, and even the White House has said that Elon Musk is, quote quote working remotely from now on, that he has left the White House effectively. The lasting image will be the one we just showed, which is Elon Musk, the world's richest man in a pair of sunglasses, holding a chainsaw, bragging about going in and making dramatic

cuts to the U.S. government. Not just waste, fraud and abuse, but USAID, rural hospitals, health care for people, all the things that may come back to haunt if Democrats already have begun to use that imagery. I think we'll continue to see it in midterm elections of the co-president, as some people have called him, came in for three months, wreaked havoc on the government, tanked his own company, Tesla. We have that, as you mentioned, Wall Street Journal report that the Tesla board was casting about, suggesting there needs to be a new CEO because he is so distracted and that he

needs to come home and run the company. So obviously doing damage to the country, doing damage to people's livelihoods, but also to the very company that made him rich and famous. Well, and President Trump is trying to pin the blame on his predecessor, Joe Biden, after the latest GDP report revealed the U.S. economy shrank in the first quarter. Trump, who took credit for market gains under Biden,

was quick to say yesterday's weak number and potentially bad future numbers are not his fault. You probably saw some numbers today. And I have to start off by saying that's Biden. That's not Trump because we came in on January, this is quarterly numbers, and we came in and I was very against everything that Biden was doing in terms of the economy destroying our country.

I'm not taking credit or discredit for the stock market. I'm just saying that we inherited our mess. We came in on January 20th. So this is Biden. And you could even say the next quarter is sort of Biden because it doesn't just happen on a daily or an hourly basis. But we're turning it around. It's a big shift to turn around.

I guess a little wink to the future not looking bright because he's already trying to blame it on Joe Biden, which is what he does with bad news. Steve, I'll launch you with a little bit from the Wall Street Journal editorial board. They have a new piece entitled, Tariffs Shrink the U.S. Economy, and it reads in part, quote, the first quarter decline in the U.S. economy reported Wednesday may not portend a recession,

but it was worse than most economists expected. The main story we see throughout the data is that President Trump's tariffs are holding growth hostage. Investors didn't take the GDP news well after some recent optimism that Mr. Trump is easing his tariff assault. Perhaps that's because the tumult over tariffs and the uncertainty they're causing seem to have bled into consumer spending.

The best response to the warning from the first quarter GDP decline would be for Mr. Trump to call the whole tariff thing off. Another set of people who could do that is Republicans, Steve. But the tariffs seem to be the problem. Yeah, and actually they had a vote in the Senate yesterday that the Democrats sponsored to take the tariffs off. And not surprisingly, the Republicans, other Republicans blocked it. A couple things first on Elon Musk this is another example of a businessman who's never set

foot in Washington going to Washington thinking they can fix things and finding out that this is not the federal government does not run like a private company and he ran into his own chainsaw in effect and and it's just another example that on steroids of course because we've never seen anything quite like it. Look on the economy the first quarter GDP number was a little bit illusory it was very messed up by some tariff stuff and things like that but the fundamental point is that Trump inherited an economy that was firing on all cylinders. It was growing at about two and a half percent a year. We had low unemployment. We had low inflation.

Business was operating. They were making investments. They were going about their affairs. And now we have chaos. I've been in Houston for a couple days this week. I talked to a lot of businessmen. Every single one of them, I have yet to find a businessman who thinks that this railroad is on its tracks. Every one of them. I have yet to find a businessman who thinks that this railroad is on its tracks. Every one of them says it's not almost as much what he's done as the uncertainty over what he might do. How do I know what to do? How do I know what to plan for? How do I know what to buy

in equipment? How do I know whether to invest? How do I know where to locate a plant? They don't know anything. And this thing about Barbies on on shelves at Christmas, that is going to be a small example of what we're going to be facing because stuff is just not going to be coming in this country. Joe? Yeah, you know, it's what we talked about throughout the campaign. You know, we're people are talking about, we are talking about democracy, but I also talked about American capitalism. I said CEOs business owners small business people They need certainty and you don't want a leader who's erratic And of course that's now what the business community of many of whom supported the president the Republicans are complaining about

And it's the back and forth of back and forth. They're also repeated warnings repeated warnings John Lemire time There are also repeated warnings, repeated warnings. John Lemire, time and time again, repeated warnings about what would happen if Republicans and the White House went through door one and they chose that door, they chose tariffs, extreme tariffs, and you know, if I'm a Democrat running, I'm not blaming this all on Donald Trump. As Steve Ratner said, Republicans in the Senate had a chance yesterday to say, okay, there's not an emergency, because there's not an emergency. In fact, our economy was stronger than it's ever been

in December. We can roll the tape if anybody would like us to, talking about just how strong it was in December and how Republicans needed to protect that economy. And only three Republican senators yesterday voted to end the so-called emergency that had them forfeiting all of their power on tariffs to the White House. So, you know, they can't go on the campaign trail and point their finger at Donald Trump. I mean, those Republicans, they own this. Those Republican senators, they own it. Republican House members, they own it. They've given up their power. They had a chance to take back their constitutionally mandated power yesterday, and all but three said, not only no, hell no, we want to wrap our arms around this economy, around this possible recession,

and take full credit for it. And so that's what those Republican senators are doing right now. Yeah, it's been such a tumultuous first hundred days of the Trump administration. But one of the great themes here is Trump's attempts to gain more executive power. And he has been successful in many ways. But the other part of that is Republicans in Congress gleefully giving it to him, seeing

their own constitutional powers there in the House and the Senate and giving it down the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue. And every time they have the ability to step up to Trump, to try to put a check on him, to try to say, look, this is not a good idea, they don't do it. And yesterday was just the latest example. And yes, you can see the campaign ads.

I know we're a long way still from the 26 midterms, but this is where this is gonna be fought over. This is the terrain. It's the President of the United States. These are self-inflicted wounds. He can try to blame President Biden. No one's going to buy that outside of the hardcore market sphere. These are his ideas.

These are his policies. And to your point, Joe, we did talk about this last year, and the Republicans and business leaders alike had convinced themselves, like, well, he's saying things, but he doesn't mean them. They're just negotiating tactics. This is just something he's thought since the 80s, but he won't actually follow through, thinking to the first term where the tariffs were there, but not nearly this severe.

Well, he meant what he said, and we should really always take him at his word. And the businesses leaders, the markets, and now Republicans are all feeling it. And soon as prices start to go up and supplies start to go down, everyday Americans are too. And we should underline again what we've been saying every day. China has said again and again, we are not negotiating right now with the United States. We are not negotiating a new trade deal.

So these are not levers for negotiating. Mike Allen, just to go back to something Joe mentioned, that vote, there was a Senate resolution proposed to end the national emergency that the president used to justify these global tariffs. In other words, Republicans had a chance to put a stop to a lot of this. And as Joe said, all but three Republicans voted to continue this. They voted against the resolution. Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, and Rand Paul were the three Republicans who voted for this to say, let's stop this tariff madness. Mitch

McConnell was not there for the vote and the Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse missed the vote as well. So it's 49-49. JD Vance broke the tie. So that's sort of a chance, as Joe said, for Republicans to say, you know what? This has gone too far. We gave you a chance to make this work. The economy's cratering. We need to stop it. But it appears that Republicans continue to go along for the ride here. It is an astonishing, undercover Washington story,

how much power Joe's branch of government, the Congress, is ceding to the White House. Yesterday had Axios, Axios had House Speaker Mike Johnson on stage in an Axios New Shapers event. Hans Nichols did a great interview with him and really pressed him on this idea of, you clawed and fought for this job. You've put down all these rebellions.

You're at the peak of your power. And what do you do? You hand power over spending that is the prerogative of Congress. You hand Article II tariff powers that is a prerogative of Congress to the White House. Like, A, why are you doing that? And B, are you fine with a future Democratic president doing the same? And Speaker Johnson said to Hans Nichols, if I have a problem with this, I will first call President Trump,

so at the moment, Republicans continue to go along. Very Bezos. In her first major speech since leaving office, former Vice President Kamala Harris last night addressed the economy. The courage of Americans who are banding together in the face of the greatest man-made economic crisis in modern presidential history. Americans across the political spectrum who are declaring that the president's reckless tariffs hurt workers and families by raising the cost of everyday essentials, devastate

the retirement accounts that people spent a lifetime paying into and paralyze American businesses large and small forcing them to lay off people to stop hiring or pause investment decisions. You know it's interesting, Cady. Kamala Harris gives a speech and a bunch of right-wing media outlets go crazy over it. I just, just for the record, I mean, it's hard data. When Kamala Harris and Joe Biden left the White House, over the past year, we'd had the strongest dollar in 50 years. We had the strongest economy we've ever had relative to the rest of the world at least since 1945. The United States did. We had record low jobless rates over a period of time. We had, again, for the very people that were calling her and Joe Biden

socialists and Marxists who have now seen their portfolios smashed, we had the strongest stock market, strongest Dow, strongest NASDAQ, strongest S&P markets in history, in history. And there were people, as we said, throughout the campaign that would be calling Biden and Harris socialists and Marxists who were driving their Maseratis to their country clubs with their Don't Tread on Me license tags, going out playing 18 holes of golf, and coming back

looking at their phone and seeing that the stock market had just made them another million dollars. Like, these are not serious people. They're really not. They voted against their own interests. Why? Don't know, but they certainly... We always talk about working class people voting against their own interests.

Well, the richest of the rich voted against their own interests, too, and they're paying for it every single day. Somebody once said to me recently that the way that Donald Trump understands the economy is big line go up, and that's really what he cares about. The big line of the stock market, the Dow Jones, has to go up, and it hasn't been going up recently. I don't know if Kamala Harris is the answer to the kind of hand-wringing that the Democrats and their autopsies quite reasonable and what they should be doing, autopsies of the last

election the Democrats have been going through. I don't know if she is the answer or will be the answer. We don't know if she will one day be governor of California. But there's clearly a need in the Democratic Party for leaders to start emerging who are prepared to speak up against what we are seeing now. And the leaders on the Democratic side who are having the most success at the moment, Bernie Sanders, AOC, Pritzker,

are those who are speaking very forcefully against what is going on around the country. And you're right, of course, at the end, I still remember that Economist magazine October cover at the end of October, just before the election, saying, whichever American president is elected will inherit one of the strongest economies they could ever possibly have. And it was Donald Trump who was elected. He inherited a very strong economy by global recognition. And look at where it is today and the amount of uncertainty continues.

Yeah, and Mika, I mean, again, you can, as you look at Kamala Harris there, I mean, not talking about what happens in the future, I'm talking about what happened in the past economically and how, again, our allies, our enemies, everybody across the globe were saying the same thing four months ago, that the US economy was stronger than at any point in their lifetime. And this morning, the Wall Street Journal editorial page is talking about Republican tariffs holding America's economy hostage four months later. So if somebody do a meme on that, or I don't know, I try to figure out how to make fun of Kamala Harris for being part of an administration

that left with the strongest economy in 50 years. And is destroying it. Good luck. Still ahead on Morning Joe, we're gonna get to President Trump's cabinet meeting that featured over-the-top praise from members of the administration. Plus, Steve Ratner going to head over to the Southwest Wall with charts on the growing pessimism among American consumers. seconds.

The last four years, the world experienced a total lack of zero leadership under Biden. And then we've had 100 days of your leadership with respect, with strength. Sir, it's been a momentous 100 days with you at the helm. And I view this 100 days as setting the table for peace deals, trade deals, tax deals. So the next 100 days will be harvesting. You've created negotiating leverage and leadership.

They're going to yield remarkable results. The reason the media attacks this administration as chaotic is because the president is solving the problems the American people set about to solve. He's actually doing the things that he promised that he would do. And Mr. President, it's been an honor to be part of it for the past 100 days. President, your first 100 days has far exceeded that of any other presidency in this country, ever, ever. Never seen anything like it. Thank you. I think this could be the greatest administration

since the start of your country. Everybody I've met, whether it's in a coal mine or at the border law enforcement, the one thing they say on those trips is, please thank President Trump from all of us. Mr. President, thank you for the honor to be able to serve alongside you, for you, and alongside all these excellent people. That was some of the praise for President Trump yesterday during a cabinet meeting, marking his first 100 days in office. Mike Allen, what do you make of what we saw there? There was a lot of praise.

Well, as I watched that live playback, I kept waiting for the president to say, stop, you shouldn't have. But remember how these cabinet members were chosen. Like these cabinet members were chosen in part because of their effectiveness in delivering the president's message on TV. As I talk behind the scenes to top administration officials, top advisors to the president, they still say it is remarkable how responsive he is to what he sees on the screen, including

Morning Joe. The president continues to consume a massive amount of content. And so he's drinking in that praise. But here's a nuance to this president that you talk to people who deal with him day to day are at his right hand. He loves the praise.

No two ways about it. Drinks it in. But if you're having a meeting with him, whether it's at Mar-a-Lago or in the Oval Office, he also wants you to deliver value, to bring him something new. And that's been the power of Elon Musk. And yesterday, he sat down in the Roosevelt Room just outside the Oval Office with a dozen reporters, including Alex Heisenstadt from Axios, and acknowledged acknowledged as you were talking at the top of the show about the fact that Doge has not Nearly done what he dreamed of they're now saying

160 billion in cuts far short of the two Trillion, but Mika listened to this he said that Doge will go on it had a date certain of July 4th 2026 now he says that the president's discretion, it might well go to the end of the presidency. And Mika and Joe listened to this. He compared Doge to Buddhism. He said it's a way of life. And he said that you wouldn't say

who's gonna be the next person to lead Buddhism. So he believes that Doge will be a legacy and he plans to stay involved a day or two a week and is going to keep his office in the West Wing, which he complains doesn't have much light, a view of the HVAC system. That's fascinating why Willie, it's almost as if people said when they were running around talking about cutting $2 trillion, it's not there. Just look in the budget. Maybe you'll get $100 billion.

We said it. Maybe $100 billion, maybe $150 billion. There's not a trillion. There's not $2 trillion there. It's just like tariffs. I mean, all of these things are so predictable. And Elon Musk goes in there and I'm going to do this and I'm going to do that. They say, we're going to do that. No, no, you're not because there's not two trillion dollars to slash and burn. And what did they do when they went in and

basically cut first and asked questions later what they first of all they turned the American people against them you look at every poll that shows Americans want a government that's responsive and a government that works and not not good reviews in the polls but they also cut VA staffing they also cut Social Security staffing they also cut VA staffing. They also cut Social Security staffing. They also cut staff members from nuclear safety agencies that they had to bring back. I mean, this has been a disaster in every single way. You can say, well, at least it was a PR win. No, it wasn't a PR win. This is gonna be hanging around Republicans' political necks over the next year and a half.

There never was $2 trillion of savings unless you're willing to touch entitlements and the Pentagon, which they weren't going to do because they can't do it. So they got, he says $160 billion worth of savings, most people believe it's much lower than that and did it by nibbling around places like the VA, cutting all those jobs at the VA. So wait times are longer for veterans trying to get care. We can go down the list. We talked about

USAID. We talked about rural hospitals here in the United States suffering from this. So I'm not sure where the PR win is there exactly. And John, as you look at that cabinet meeting, we've seen a couple of these already, but this one was exceptionally fawning, I guess is the word, to understate perhaps a little bit what we saw in there, where the entire exercise to go around the table and using in many cases, wildly inflated data

or just wrong data to praise the president of the United States, including, we should point out, the attorney general. The Department of Justice is supposed to be separate from the executive branch. I think we've already forgotten about that, but clearly not in this case as we watched Pam Bondi yesterday. Yeah, she suggests some fentanyl seizures, obviously a good thing. But in her estimation that Trump's quote, single handedly saved 258 million lives, which is more than 75% of the American population.

So yes, it's good to get fentanyl off the street. But yeah, I don't think we even need to do a fact check on that one. Of course, seen here the red hats, most of them Gulf of America hats, which is one of President Trump's signature accomplishments, in his estimation, during the first 100 words. Yes, the focus on Elon Musk, of course. This might be the last time we see him, maybe,

in one of these meetings. Although I will say, Democrats heartened by the news that he still might work one or two days a week, because he has become such a face of chaos here and of these cuts that have been so painful to Democrats and Republicans alike and we've seen the anger at the town halls. But I was told afterwards, the president was very pleased with this cabinet meeting, but not everyone,

even Ann Coulter, Ann Coulter tweeted yesterday saying, "'Would it be possible to have a cabinet meeting without the Kim Jong-il style tributes?' So even some on the right feel like, perhaps, a bit over the top. Yeah. All right, morning Joe Economic Analyst analyst Steve Ratner has made his way over to the Southwest Wall to break down the various economic indicators that we are seeing, including Steve, how Americans are feeling about all this. Yeah, Amika. And the answer is Americans

are not feeling good at all. So let's take a look at a couple of the numbers that we do have. So consumer sentiment obviously measures what consumers feel about the economy at a point in time. This gray line going to black here is all Americans put together and you can see how it's rolled over like that. This is the fourth lowest reading in history since they started taking this survey. It's an interesting thing that I've shown you before but people switch around based on who's president. Before the election, the Democrats were more optimistic, now less, and vice versa.

But even this Republican number, which has gone up a little bit, in Trump's first term, confidence among Republicans was up here. So even Republicans are still a long way from feeling as good about Donald Trump 2.0 as they did about 1.0. No ambiguity about CEOs. CEOs feel like this has just gone off a cliff. This is the lowest reading since 2010 in the wake of the financial crisis. CEOs, and I've been around a lot of CEOs in the last few days, and we talked about it

a few minutes ago, they hate the tariffs, but they hate the uncertainty even more. They have no idea how to plan their business. They have no idea what's coming. You're seeing CEOs at the moment releasing their first quarter earnings reports where they normally tell you the outlook for the year, and company after company is saying, we can't tell you the outlook for the year because we don't know. Steve, I ask this sincerely.

Are the CEOs you talked to, are they genuinely surprised by what's happening here? I mean, this is exactly what Donald Trump advertised during the campaign. It's exactly what places like Goldman Sachs predicted that the economy would be much stronger if Joe Biden were reelected, or excuse me, if Kamala Harris were elected.

Are they actually surprised by what they're watching here? Yeah, Willie, they are. And I think they thought that a campaign is a campaign. People make lots of promises. And then they come in office and do something more moderate, something more like the right thing. And so they're stunned. They are really literally in a state of shock.

They never expected this. So let's look at your second chart, Steve, which gives us some of the reasons for the pessimism you just laid out. And that's inflation. that's cost of living, that it's just going to get a lot more difficult here this year to get through the day. Yeah, so prices haven't actually started to go up much yet, but it is coming because as these goods come in and the import taxes are put on them, prices are going to go up. Consumers are terrified. The market itself actually is not quite as pessimistic about inflation, but consumers really are scared.

Six and a half percent up from under three percent just a couple months ago, the highest since 1981. And so you see that then reflected in something you guys have been talking about, but we'll lay it out here, which are the polls. 39% approval rating for Trump, lowest going all the way back to somewhere before Nixon, maybe LBJ at the height of the Vietnam War, who knows, but for a very, very long time, lower than where Trump was last time at this point,

at first hundred days, and actually lower than where Joe Biden was after his first hundred days. Yeah, Steve, I just want to go back. You said these CEOs, these captains of industry, these wizards of Wall Street are stunned. They are stunned that Donald Trump is doing what he said he was going to do since 1987, that he's doing what we said he was going to do. We kept warning about, you know, if you like certainty,

this is not the way to go. He's gonna really, really lean into the tariffs. He said tariffs is the most beautiful word in the English language. I just, how could they have deluded themselves that he was going to come in and be Eisenhower? He never was going to be Eisenhower. He promised them every day on the campaign trail that this is exactly what he was going to do.

So how can they sit back going, oh my god, I can't believe he said he, I can't believe he's doing what he said he was going to do since 1987? You know, Joe, it's a great question. I think there's a combination of reasons and I'm not here to defend or explain it even, but I'll try to put myself in their head for you. Trump 1.0 had some tariffs, but they were far more modest than this. They caused much less chaos. Politicians say a lot of things on the campaign trail. And honestly, just what Trump did here, has done here with the tariffs, is just so far

over the top. It just never occurred to them. I shouldn't say never occurred to them. They never believed that we can have 154 percent tariffs on things from China, meaning, effectively, those toys will not be on the shelves at Christmas. So, Steve, moving forward, President Trump said that Biden is also responsible for the future. What is the economic outlook under Trump's second presidency? Yeah, he said Biden was responsible for what's happened in the stock market and more of it

would be responsible for anything else that happens in the stock market. So let's talk about what happened in the stock market. In Trump 2.0, the stock market is down 7%. That is the worst performance of a stock market in the first 100 days of a presidential term since Nixon's second term in 1973. It is in stark contrast to Trump's first term, when contrary to what many people expected, the stock market actually went up 5%. And back to Joe's question, because he didn't come out and do all this crazy stuff. But also what is really troublesome for every American, whether you have an IRA or you're

an investor, is the volatility. Look at what the stock market did in the course of these 100 days, and compare it to any of these other periods. This is another form of uncertainty, which is unbelievably destabilizing to business. So where does that put us all together? Puts us all together with recession odds going up very, very sharply. We don't yet obviously have data yet on what's happened really in the last little bit, but let's just go back and take a look.

There were some fears of recession back in 24 when the Fed was raising interest rates. When Joe Biden left office, you guys have talked over and over again, how about when Joe Biden left office, economy is growing 2.5%, low unemployment, inflation on its way down, and so recession odds close to zero. Trump comes in, recession odds go up, up, up, up, up, 45% to 40%, Goldman Sachs versus Bloomberg. And then just as a fun fact, on April 9th, Goldman Sachs raised its recession probability to 65% because of the tariffs. Two hours later, Trump rescinded some of the tariffs or delayed them, and they took that

forecast back down to 45%. And this is another example of the volatility and the uncertainty that business hates and just makes their job unbelievably difficult. All right. that business hates and just makes their job unbelievably difficult. Alright, so Steve, before we let you go, Steve, really quickly, I just want to ask you about, you referenced it, this report is a little quirky, just as a caveat, a little quirky because imports flooded in, people were trying to beat the tariffs, that sort of skewed some of the GDP numbers.

There's no doubt that the next two, three months are looking pretty rocky. But you had mentioned it. Talk about why this reading was a little bit quirky. Yeah, Joe, it was quirky for a couple of reasons, and it's worth pointing out. First of all, Trump wasn't even president for the whole 90 days. Secondly, it ended on March 31st, and the tariffs came in on April 2nd. But as you said, the key things were that imports came into the country in anticipation of the tariffs.

That lowers the GDP, but you also had a bunch of businesses out there trying to make some investments and buy some capital goods before the tariffs. That makes it higher. When you strip it all apart, it does appear that the economy grew by a couple percent in the first quarter. But that is, that I would put on Biden. I mean, Biden was the president for a month of that, plus it was his economy that Trump inherited.

So I give Biden credit for what was actually not a bad GDP number. We got to look ahead. There was a jobs number yesterday from ADP. We're going to get another jobs number this Friday. But the ADP number that came out yesterday showed roughly half as many jobs being created last month as the month before. So you may start to see some effects of Trump, but looking ahead, it's all bad. There's nothing but gloom out there in the business and the investor community. Yeah, I mean that's why

again that we've said it here. The next 100 days will be more telling, even in the first 100 days, as far as the economy goes. Again, there are a couple of different, a couple of caveats to add to this number. But you look at consumer confidence plummeting, you look at savings rates down, a lot of reasons to be deeply concerned for Americans as we move

forward over the next three months. Morning, Joe, Economic Analyst, Steve Ratner, thank you so much. Cady, Americans aren't the only ones concerned. As we've said repeatedly here three months ago, leaders in Britain, leaders across Europe wanted to be more like the United States. Its economy was roaring. They wistfully wished that they had the, quote, animal spirits that Americans had, as we've discussed on this show and discussed recently in London when I was in London.

They're not wishing for those sort of animal spirits anymore. They're deeply concerned right now. Talk about the drag on their economy, but also the opportunities that many leaders feel are being presented to them because America is stepping back on the global stage economically. First of all, I have to take a moment to get over what Steve was just saying. It's all bad, is how he ended.

So I'm gonna circle that so that I remember just how grim things are. I've spent the last couple of weeks speaking to business leaders in Europe. They are both kind of fascinated and appalled and trying to make sense of what is happening here. Most of them are deciding that we can't make any plans to invest in the United States.

You've got companies like DHL, which is the kind of big international equivalent of UPS, which has even now just stopped shipping to small businesses in America. So imagine the knock-on effect that that is having for American businesses, but also that is happening for European businesses, for example. So they are in a kind of holding pattern. The effect of Donald Trump on the world cannot be over-exaggerated. I mean, I've never seen a president that's not just had this much impact at home, but

has upended the rest of the world in the same way in the first hundred days. So he's causing chaos, but he's also, like you say there, Joe, that's interesting that you use that word opportunities, because what are we starting to see? We're starting to see the Europeans in the United Kingdom talk about closer ties post-Brexit. Could they somehow rectify that post-Brexit alliance in the wake of Donald Trump? We're seeing the Canadians talking to the Europeans

about some kind of post-Brexit, a post kind of Trump alliance. We're seeing Japan, South Korea, the Australians talking to the Chinese about closer ties. It takes a lot to get the Japanese and the Chinese to be talking to each other about a closer relationship. But that's the impact of Donald Trump. Global trade, when all the international business leaders

that I've spoken to in economists, global trade will continue. It may just have to find its way around the United States rather than through the United States. And that will hurt America. A painful realignment. And Mike Allen, before you go, what is Axios looking at today?

Yeah, thank you. Picking up on Steve's point about what's ahead and concerns of CEOs, we know the president likes to make deals. And I think you're going to hear a spate of deals announced. At the White House, they've been teasing a few of them, but here's something super important for your viewers, that some of this damage is done. If they were to walk out and announce a bunch of big deals today, there still would be sluggishness

in the supply chain. The port bookings are down, freighter activities are down. And what I'm hearing as I talk to business executives is six to eight weeks from liberation day. So the next couple weeks is when consumers, small businesses will start to feel it. And they're most concerned about small businesses. And word for some reason some event happened in the past I set alerts for automotive news and I got an alert from automotive news yesterday

with the word that stuck with me in the in the alert it said the uselessness of business forecasts and that's the knock-on effect. The businesses live by these forecasts and now they're just throwing them out, not even issuing them. Co-founder of Axios, Mike Allen, thank you very much. See you soon. And coming up, we're gonna have the latest on the deportation case against Kilmar Abrego Garcia.

As a judge denies the Trump administration's request to delay providing documents on how officials are facilitating the Maryland man's return. Morning Joe, we'll be right back. 100 days trumped in an interview with ABC's Terry Moran here he is showing off the Oval Office over here you have the original of Abraham Lincoln and George Washington and of course you have the Declaration of Independence. What does it mean to you? Well, it means exactly what it says. It's a declaration. It's a declaration of unity and love and respect.

And it means a lot. And it's something very special to our country. Ha ha! Ah! Ah! Come on, skate. Skate, you're okay. Come on, skate. Skate your face.

Jim, Jim, can we see Terry Moran's face again? Oh, Terry. Terry, tonight we are all your face. Not a declaration of unity, in fact, the opposite. Yeah. A declaration of separation. A federal judge, meanwhile, is denying the Trump administration's request to delay answering questions about what steps it is taking to facilitate the return of the man it mistakenly

by its own admission deported to a prison in El Salvador. Yesterday a judge set new deadlines in the Kilmar-Abrego Garcia case calling for an expedited discovery schedule. During that time, four Trump administration officials will be deposed. This comes just days after the judge granted the Trump administration a week-long pause in presenting documents.

We don't know how much more time the lawyers actually had requested. Meanwhile, the New York Times is reporting the White House has sent a note to officials in El Salvador inquiring about the release of Abrego Garcia. It's not clear if they were asking specifically about him. The White House declined to comment on the report. They may have just been asking about, generally speaking, about the return of a migrant from El Salvador. Let's bring in MSNBC legal correspondent,

former litigator Lisa Rubin. Lisa, good morning. I understand you had a chance to speak to one of Abrego Garcia's attorneys. I did. And what are they thinking? Well, so, Willie, they wouldn't tell me what happened yesterday in a short hearing before the court. That hearing was sealed, and that means they're not at liberty to discuss the contents of

what each side said, including themselves. But they did give me a statement and they said that the week-long pause in the case was brought about because the Department of Justice represented that the government wanted time to negotiate for Abrego Garcia's return. We had seen that said in public reporting so far, but neither of the sides involved in the litigation had confirmed that until Abrego Garcia's own lawyers told me that last night. And so what do you make of the Justice Department inquiring? As they say, as a general matter, what would it take to get a migrant back from El Salvador? Do you think they're actually exploring the possibility despite what the president is

still saying publicly that there's nothing we can do about it now? Well, if you believe public reporting, it's not just the Justice Department. The Justice Department made that representation in court according to Mr. Abrego Garcia's lawyers, but it's the State Department that has gone to the Bichelli government in El Salvador and started to make those inquiries about facilitating his return. What's not clear is whether this is an elaborate charade designed to satisfy the Supreme Court's ruling that the government has to facilitate Mr. Abrego Garcia's return, or whether it was something

actually done in earnest. We also then have that moment from the president's interview with Terry Moran, where he says if he wanted to, he could make this happen. But the guy isn't who some people say he was. That, Willie, is not, as you know, in keeping with the Supreme Court's ruling so far. Okay, so new details are coming to light behind the deal to deport Venezuelans to El Salvador's most feared prison. The New York Times reports that El Salvadoran President Bukele has agreed to house only what he called convicted criminals in the prison, and wanted assurances

from the U.S. that each of those locked up in the prison was a member of Trende Aragua. The Times reports Mr. Bukele's demands for more information about some of the deportees, which has not been previously reported, deepen questions about whether the Trump administration sufficiently assessed who it dispatched to a foreign prison. Mr. Bukele was willing to let the United States use his prisons with conditions. He did not want to bring in non-criminal migrants. He could not convince Salvadorans he was prioritizing their national interests if he turned their country into a dumping ground for U.S. deportees from other countries. The paper continues, publicly the administration insisted all 238 Venezuelans who were deported were members of

Trende Aragua, but few had documented public links to the official, to the gang. And officials admitted that many did not have criminal records in the United States. Lemire, if I can, am I hearing this right? The dictator from, he's more interested in our constitution, apparently, and due process? Yeah, the president of El Salvador, the self-proclaimed world's coolest dictator, is concerned about the identity of the people that he has in his prison.

About the due process. And then the due process that led them there, far more than the United States government has been. You see, the terrific reporting in the Times. That's mind-blowing. Yeah, that he, that the El Salvadorian, the Salvadorian government expressed concern, who are these people?

We wanna make sure we just have convicted criminals here. And then there's some that go back and forth And the Salvadorian government expressed concern about who are these people, we want to make sure we just have convicted criminals here. And then there's some that go back and forth about wanting some MS-13 members to be part of the swap. But Lisa, this is so illuminating here. Talk to us about how this can be used, and beyond what we've heard from the Abelio Garcia hearing yesterday, for others who are there who, beyond this one man, also had no due process here and are being, even the Salvadorian government, concerned where they are. We're at a place right now where discovery about the

government's compliance with the Alien Enemies Act rulings is also something that will be litigated. Judge Boasberg, even though his orders were vacated by the Supreme Court, wants to get to the bottom of who allowed those planes to even go to El Salvador in the first place. And John, one of the things I thought was really interesting about that same reporting that you and Mika were just referring to is there's a discussion of what happened in the White House when they became aware of Judge Boasberg's orders. And this is the thing that Judge Boasberg himself wants to get to the bottom of and

may indeed get to the bottom of. They say, inside the White House, senior administration officials quickly discussed the order and whether they should move ahead. The team of Trump advisors decided to go forward, believing the planes were safely in international airspace and well aware that the legal fight was most likely destined for the Supreme Court where conservatives have a majority. In other words, they knew that the order was there. They knew they were flouting it and they decided to go ahead anyway.

I doubt that this is the last that we've heard of this. What the judge would really like to do once the DC Circuit perhaps lifts a stay on his discovery himself is try to figure out who were those people. And maybe we'll find out. MSNBC legal correspondent Lisa Rubin, thank you very much for coming on this morning. figure out who were those people. And maybe we'll find out.