Morning Joe - Morning Joe 5/16/24

Episode Date: May 16, 2024

The Morning Joe panel discusses the latest in U.S. and world news, politics, sports and culture

President Biden challenged former President Trump to two debates and Trump accepted. Yeah, Trump agreed to the debate. He said, I'll be there assuming it's OK with my parole officer. The first debate will be next month, which is the earliest a presidential debate has ever been. And if we're being honest, an early bird debate feels right for these guys. Boom. Just like that, they're going head to head, toe to toe, mano a mango. Trump jumped right on the offer, posting, just tell me when I'll be there. Let's get ready to rumble. Rumble? I've seen your rallies.

I think you mean let's get ready to ramble. Good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Thursday, May 16th, and I just have to ask the question that Alex Gorsin asked. Please ask. Why is it not Friday? How is it not Friday, guys? It's Thursday. Friday, which is grateful that God has given us another day to come and pray for you. I'm very grateful.

But we're close to Friday. It's almost Friday. No, no. We're not at Friday. We're not? 24 hours until Friday. We've got a lot to talk about today. We have the host of Way Too Early, White House Speer Chief at Politico, Jonathan Lemire.

NBC News National Affairs Analyst, John Heilman. He's a partner and chief political columnist at Puck. Member of the New York Times editorial board, Mara Gay is with us, and former Treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst, Steve Ratner is up bright and early this morning. Did he bring charts on this Thursday?

I don't know. Maybe he did. I just told him, I want him around the table because he comes in, he goes to the Fenway wall. Southwest wall. Southwest wall. He talks and he leaves. I take it personally after a while. Why it's not Friday.

Well, I take it personally that I'm not invited to the big boys table. I'm off in the kitty corner. What did I do this morning, Stevie? I know. I appreciate it. I said I wanted you here. OK, let's go through a couple of things right now. No, we have a lot to get to.

The debates. My God, it's happening. Yeah, that's really lot to get to. The debates, my God. It's happening. Yeah. I'm just saying. That's really, I'm so excited. At a press, at two dueling press releases. Let's talk about real things. Okay.

Daily News, Mike Lupica, our good friend Mike Lupica on the back, says that this may be the most exciting best Knicks team of all time debate. I mean, they did win two titles in the 70s with Walt Clyde Frazier and Willis Reed. But this is certainly in the modern era. I will say, knowing a lot of Knicks fans, this is the team they love the most. They've had in a long time. They're certainly fond of a couple of Patrick Ewing teams that won, that made that run to the finals in 1999. But this one, Jalen Brunson has taken the city by storm. Look, game six in Indiana will be hard, but even if they lose that one, they get a game seven at home. It's difficult to

imagine that crowd letting them down. I'm cheering for the Knicks just because it's so exciting. But you know what? It's going to end up being the Nuggets and the Celtics. Here's the thing, though. I mean, let's hope. I'd say what Lubica says there is that Jalen Brunson's a great playoff performer. That's clearly true. And I'll say, you know, if I could do a good Howard Cosell, I'd be like, not since the day. Well, glad you mentioned that. But you can't. You can try.

There's an electricity in the garden. There has been for a long time. And I'll say I've never said this before. Never said it before. I'll never say it again. Thank you, Jimmy Dolan. I'm good. He gave us all those years of disappointment, abuse.

It's just made this moment that much sweeter. There you go. Because everybody has been so longing. It's like the fan, Knicks fans have been in the desert for so long. Yeah. Being crapped on by Jimmy Dolan. They're now like, they can see the light. All right.

Very exciting. Through Dolan crap. Thank you so much for that. And now, Mar can see the light. All right. Very exciting. Through Dolan crap. Thank you so much for that. And now, Mara, I just. Mara. It's a good 603. Proving my New York Times Sienna poll screed of yesterday. He has a whole conspiracy theory behind it.

Every one of those polls skew press coverage for weeks to come. The newspaper of record, the New York Post, with collapsing polls. You can see this everywhere because one CNN poll. Now, I hold up the paper of record for morning joke for a good reason, because Fox News has their own polls out, which show deadlock. The New York Times had an Ipsos poll that showed Biden ahead by four. Again, am I saying Biden's ahead by four? No, it's a deadlock. But again, this Ipsos poll.

Here's the new Fox News poll that shows Donald Trump up by one percentage point. Joe Biden's actually picked up three, has picked up three. But this happens, Maura. It's like I'm always saying, I'm always saying the day after a Siena poll, and it's been for six months. Okay, you have a lot to live for. You have four children. You know, polls change. These are four of them.

You're in this trend, this cycle. A lot of people who like democracy. And sure enough, the next day we will be hit not by one, by two, by four or five polls the next week that show. We're at deadlock. Right. But my point, it does. It skews press coverage for weeks to come. I'm not asking you to defend the Times. You don't do the polling. You don't do the polling. I'm just saying it's a draw. This is a draw right now. It's also polls are but one data point. I think we tend to think of them as the only measure of what's happening.

And they're often out of context. I mean, we're pulling actual human beings here. That's imperfect. I mean, you saw in Nevada, which is a notoriously difficult state to pull that Biden was down the most. And that may be the actual trend, but the real shape of it is really hard to know because you're just getting a snapshot in time. The other thing here is it's hard to know when you have two people, two candidates for president who really are quite unpopular overall, both of them with the American public, how much of this is people who are being polled right now who are not super political? They're not politics junkies and they may not like either of them, but it's still May. They're not thinking about this necessarily as a contest between two candidates.

They're thinking, I don't like either of them. Talk to me in five months. I'll take the last guy. Exactly. Exactly. But the whole idea that it's going to be 13 points in Nevada. Seriously, I will take any bets. It's going to be close.

Democrats almost always win close races in Nevada. Unbelievable. Now, finally, to you before we get moving, inflation. Inflation eases. Stocks hit highs. I think most importantly, from at least the numbers I saw yesterday, grocery prices going down a bit. And I'm telling you, between three things, really, especially for younger voters, grocery prices, it's gas, and of course, it's buying a home

or being able to have a nice place to rent out. Those are the three. Well, we're not even talking about a car. I mean, cars are crazy. We basically trade in all of our cars. We have a gray Kia minivan, and we got it because it's reliable, and it's 10 years, 100,000 miles, and you don't have to go, go, do you have this part? Yeah, we'll have this part in about eight months. No, I get up in my gray Kia minivan and drive down the road like a boss.

The parts thing is the problem that Steve has with his Bentley. It's like, yes, for the rolls. Yeah, it's like the main pockets. Like, we have to wait for the parts forever. Forget about the gray Poupon cooler. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah.

It's crazy. It's crazy. Not even fighting us anymore. I'm not going to get into all that with you guys. Thank you, John, for attacking my lifestyle. I like my Bentley. That was not an attack.

I'm just jealous. If you want, I'll give you a ride in the Bentley around the block. Awesome, let's do it. Let's do that. Steve Ratner makes populists of us all. Go ahead, Steve. So you're teasing my appearance at the Southwest Wall in a few minutes. But we do have good news on inflation.

And we have good news on all the things you mentioned, food, energy. A lot of those prices are actually moderating and only going up by very reasonable amounts. I'll show you some stuff about how consumer sentiment is so closely tied to inflation. And we know that that's going to drive the election. But just where you guys were a second ago, you know that the real clear average of polls shows it is a dead heat. It's a dead heat. It's a dead heat. It's a dead heat. Again, my reaction is not so much to The Times. I'm dead serious here. It's to people that freak out disproportionately on The Times and then The Times doing 15 stories on their poll. Fox, Fox, Fox will not do 15 stories on their Fox poll.

You know, morning consult. But it's become this cottage industry for people on the other side of the Chinese wall that Maura is not on. So she has nothing to do with this. Please do not direct any comments or tweets to her. I'm not involved in polls. I just, just for people at home, and it's important for them to kind of see what's behind the scenes. I have, for six months,

since people have been freaking out about Biden's team, I'm telling you every time I go in and talk to anybody that's running the campaign, the big part of the campaign, I don't know what they're telling you and what they're telling other people. They're like, they act like people that are holding four aces. Well, what about this? Yeah, it's pretty bad. What about this? Yeah. Yeah. Oh, yeah. Oh, that looks really tough. Yeah. Boy, Trump. They really. Is this a criticism or? No, I'm telling you, they know something that I think a lot of us don't know. And they look at numbers and they see where things are going. They've had a theory of a case that when people realize Donald Trump is going to be getting into the race, things are going to start gelling better for them.

They understand that you win politics by raising money and organizing on the ground. They understand Donald Trump's numbers are way down in every way in fundraising. And they'll say, oh, well, we're going to. No, they're not. They're not going to. They're never going to catch Joe Biden. And as far as organization goes, we all know anybody who's been involved in a political campaign. If you're tearing up like stakes and in April and May, you're not going to put them back down in July and August. Donald Trump is going to be pounded on the ground. The blocking and the tackling the Biden people feel great about. And they have about a thousand clips of Donald Trump that every day they're like, which one are we going to use today? And it just makes them look horrible. Yeah. The Biden campaign.

They're supremely confident. Yes. I mean, they are cognizant that it will be very close. They are confident, but they know it's going to be tight. In fact, an aide told me in the last week or so that this person was saying, I feel very good about where we are. We're going to win decisively by less than a point because that's how this is going to be. This race is going to be tight. But they like where they are, in part because of the fundamentals. They have far better organization. They have far more state offices. They have far more money on hand. And that's advantage is probably only going to grow. They do feel like that once Americans start paying attention and tomorrow's point, most are not just yet. Most still think there's some skepticism whether this is going to be the

race. And I'm told yesterday that's part of why these debates are important and why they're happening so early for two reasons. First of all, there just isn't understanding now. So many more Americans vote early. The debate commission was going to have their debates mid late October. That's too late. Too many ballots have already been cast. But your second point, I'm still having intelligent people with advanced degrees telling me who's a Republican nominee really going to be. Yeah, people still wonder. They think Joe Biden is too old. They think Donald Trump, well, he'll be in prison.

He can't do it. Like, whatever it might be, there are people who are still skeptical. And that's why a Biden person was telling me last night, June is so important because that June debate, what's that's going to do? That's going to grab Donald Trump, who's been turned into white noise the last couple of years and being put in Americans living rooms. Yeah, here's the guy. Here's the guy. He's the nominee. Do you really want this again? They think that'll change. I don't know if I'm suffering from campaign post-traumatic stress, but you just don't go all Robbie Mook on us. Yeah. You know what I'm saying? I'm not talking about, as James Carville would say, algorithms.

OK, but. Robbie talks about algorithms. What are algorithms? No, no, no. Here's anything that happened. Here's a theory of the case and their theory of the case of Biden campaign. And I think they're dead right. It's going to be a close race and in close races.

It's the blocking blocking it's the tackling that wins it's wins it for you we saw this in 2004 we thought that 2004 with with with with bush against kerry was going to be just like 2000 but you had ken melman who was blocking and tackling from january on just phone calls every day, going around. And now you have Gin O'Malley Dillon doing it every day. And that stuff adds up in close races. If you know it's going to be a close race, that stuff adds up. So again, maybe they're wrong.

But I will tell you, the difference between this campaign and 16 is there was arrogance in the 16 campaign. They made fun of Donald Trump. They said no way Donald Trump could win. They went on Saturday night live and mocked and ridiculed Donald Trump as a Republican nominee. This is the one good thing about these New York Times polls? It scares the crap out of all the supporters who will say to fundraisers, please, may we give you more? And so I guess after the election's over, Trump will probably say it was a conspiracy. The New York Times, CNN poll always overplayed how bad things were for Biden to juice his fundraising because that's working, too.

So let's get caught up on the news that broke on our show yesterday. President Biden and Donald Trump agreeing to presidential debates. Things escalated pretty rapidly throughout yesterday afternoon with both candidates announcing they have accepted two invitations to debate once on CNN on June 27th and again on ABC News on September 10th. The rules will differ from past election cycles. The candidates agreed to bypass the commission on presidential debates, which had organized these face-offs every four years since 1988. Biden also requested these guidelines, which Trump begrudgingly accepted, or at least

we think he accepted it. Never know that there be no audience in the room, that no third party candidates be allowed to participate, that only a select group of news outlets can host and that a candidate's microphone be shut off if they go over their allotted speaking. All right, John Heilman, come on. I am skeptical that Trump will ever put himself in that position where I mean, he's not saved by a roaring crowd. You know, have one outside, whatever. I think there are I think there's a lot of evidence to suggest that Donald Trump is not as good as his word and that he won't necessarily make good on this i on on his body is i'll meet him anywhere anytime pledge there's all there is though you know the the thing that trump has been um the the kind of the core paradigm for the

campaign from the trump campaign's point of view is donald trump is strong joe biden is weak he's weak failing flailing old and they they don't want that contrast because donald Biden is weak. He's weak, failing, flailing, old, fumbling. They don't want that contrast because Donald Trump is weak and flailing and miserable. But that's not what they think. That's not what they think. You don't think that Susie Wiles and Chris and the smart people on his campaign don't understand how often this guy loses his train of thought. I think they do. I think they do. I think they do. I think Jimmy Connors, I'm certain that tennis pro 74 to 77 actually also brokered the Camp David Accords. I know. So so they know. I think they also have a darker they have a more critical view

of Joe Biden's errors and missteps in this area than you do. And we're just talking here about not about what the right point of view is, but what are they going to let him, Donald Trump, go and debate? Yeah. It would be, I think, a very tricky thing for Donald Trump, whose main point of view is I am the tough guy. I roll over everything. I'm rolling over the legal system right now. Joe Biden is weak and failing. I'm strong and tough. I unstoppable for him to have said I will meet you anywhere, anytime, under any circumstances and then to back out. I think he has painted himself into a corner because Joe, because I think Trump has did not necessarily believe Trump himself did not necessarily believe that Biden would eventually ever stand up and say he would take these debates. And now he's kind of in a corner. And I think, Joe, that Donald Trump always tries to leave himself wiggle room. He's not left himself much here. So if you ask me, you know, with a gun to my head, whether I think these debates are going to happen,

I wouldn't say there's nothing close to 100 percent. I'd say a little more likely than not that Trump will feel like he has no choice but to do these two. You said about what about his campaign thinking he's going to go in there, not with knowledge, not with experience on the world stage that was productive, but he's going to go in there with insults, with a fire hose of falsehoods, with personal stuff about Joe Biden. And he's going to come at him hard. And that's going to be the challenge. You laugh, but sometimes that throws people off. You never know. Jonathan Lemire. It works for him in 2016. I'm not laughing. Oh, OK.

I'm smiling at the fact that when Donald Trump tries all of those things. Right. That he does in front of his fat Elvis 77 crowd where they roar and say, please throw a sweaty scarf in my direction. Yeah. It's going to be met with dead silence. And everybody like the cameraman and camera women are going to be looking at each other. I don't underestimate it. It's the nasty behavior is so shocking. It can be off. But no, but it's Jonathan Lemire. What about RFK Jr.? Well, as part of these agreements, he is not going to be included in these debates,

which RFK Jr. campaign put together some vociferous opposition to that yesterday, saying, look, we're factoring in the polls here. We should be part of this race. Some Americans may agree with them, but the Biden and Trump campaigns have cut him out. He is not going to be part of these debates. Trump, we should also note, is calling for more than just these two and said he's even got an agreement with Fox News to host a third. But the Biden campaign says that, no, this will be it. Two presidential campaigns, plus one for the vice presidentials, Kamala Harris versus whoever Trump picks as his running mate. That will be held in July. But to John's point here, I do think there's a sense that the Biden campaign also wants to box Trump in.

They know he's he was out ahead of this thing. I will debate you in any way. So the Biden camp said, OK, we'll debate you. We're going to do it like this. And he can't let Trump now can't be perceived as walking away from that. And if he did, it would be a perception perception of weakness. Right. And, you know, Maura, Willie always says, I strongly recommend that our viewers watch a Donald Trump rally from the beginning to the end to understand how disconnected this man is from reality. And I just again, I'm just saying 90 minutes in a deadly silent studio audience with nothing but but but laughter coming from cameramen and camera women and stagehands at really stupid things that he says. I think I just I think it's a huge mistake for him.

Well, there's a few things working in Joe Biden's favor in that in that sense. One of them is that Donald Trump has really enjoyed going on the platform of his choosing to communicate with the public for the past three, four years. And so that is going to be it's going to that's just going to end with this. And the other thing is that I think the more national events you have where all eyes are in one place, the better for Joe Biden. So this is not going to be something that that Donald Trump can introduce in his own way on his own platform. Americans are going to see from a traditional media organization exactly what Donald Trump looks like and sounds like. There's going to be one source for this information. And I actually think that's going to work in Joe Biden's favor.

And and, you know, the other element that I'm just depressed about here is that the second debate is on my birthday. So we're going to have a birthday party right here. The birthday debate watch September 10th for 25 years old. That's fantastic. Jonathan, you want to remember that. Let's just remember that despite Trump's bravado about the debates, Joe Biden got the better of him in 2020. He won those debates. And Trump was incoherent and infected with COVID, at least in the first one. And we're also seeing from the Republicans already setting expectations so low for Biden that if he just stands up there and puts some sentences together, he'll win. And we saw what he did in the State of the Union. And by the way, they never learn.

They never learn. These Republicans never learn. They constantly underestimate Joe Biden. They constantly say he's an old man. He can't speak. As you know, if you're debating somebody, even if you're a lot better than him, you just go, you know, I just,

I hope I'm able to walk off the stage. My hound dog will still talk to me afterwards because he's such a great debater. I'm going to make a fool of my. You constantly talk yourself down. These Republicans keep saying, oh, we just hope he gets through the State of the Union. He's so old and addled. We just hope. And think about it. That was a triumph. All you can do is you can judge somebody by their toughest challenges. Joe Biden, the Democratic primary. He was at the, you know, back against the wall. He went South Carolina. He destroys all the people politically that had

been mocking him before that. You think about the first state of the union. He's too old. He's too infirmed. He can't. He blew him out of the water. This last state of the union, not only was it prepared remarks, it was off the, you know, off the cuff remarks where he just mocked and ridiculed them and made them look like children. And yet, and why should we be surprised? They still don't get it. They're still mocking him, which plays right into his hand. Yeah, because to paraphrase George Bush, it's nice to go into a debate with the soft bigotry of low expectations working in your favor. Right. They think that's true. They basically made him out to be a guy who can barely put a sentence together. And so he's going to go in there. And I think it's his chance. And, you know, I was reading Doris Kearns Goodwin's new

book about the 60s. And in the 1960 Nixon Kennedy debate, the whole idea was that Kennedy needed to show people he was a grown up. The narrative around Kennedy was he was a kid. He was too young. He was too inexperienced. He couldn't command the stage. And that's all Kennedy had to do again against low expectations. And I think Biden is in very much the same situation. As Jonathan pointed out, he did win the last two debates. I think everything they've agreed to so far and this could still break down over a lot of these details plays to Biden's strength. No studio audience, set times, moderator cuts off the microphone and give Biden a chance to talk without Trump, you know, hovering over him and waving his arms.

Throwing COVID his way. All right. Still ahead on Morning Joe. By the way, Mika. That was so gross. If Trump agrees to this. Yeah. With everything working against him.

Yeah. It shows you. It reveals how desperate they are for this debate. Yeah. That they know things aren't as great. I'm more careful in my thoughts about this. Anything could happen. Still ahead on Morning Joe, Steve Radner is going to head over to the Southwest wall to

tell us why it's not Friday and it's only Thursday. And also to break down yesterday's welcome inflation numbers. And as we go to break, a quick refresher of how Donald Trump conducted himself in the 2020 debates with then candidate Joe Biden. We're back in 90 seconds. They will under my proposal. It's not what you said and it's not what your party has said. So we have to be engaged.

That's not what they're talking about. We have the highest deficit trade deficit with Mexico. China ate your lunch. China ate your lunch, Joe. He said maybe we should drop a nuclear weapon on them. They may. I never said that. Antifa is an idea, not an organization. You got it. Not malicious. If you just stay out of the way. Oh, really? Oh, really? This guy. I want to see an honest ballot.

He's just afraid of counting the votes. You're wrong. You're wrong. I want to continue with you on this. I love you, President Biden. He's so wrong when he makes this happen like this. You didn't want me to ban you, which was heavily enforced. You would have been much later, Joe. Mr. President, sir, you're debating him, not me. Let me ask my question. Well, I'll ask Joe.

No, Mr. President. Even the people who testified. No, no, go ahead. No, no. Mr. President. Three and a half million, Joe. No, no, no. Mr. President. Three and a half million, Joe. No, no, no. Stop. Wait a minute.

Mr. President. No, Mr. President. Can I be honest? It's a very important question. No, I agree. He stood up. No, the answer to the question is no. Welcome back.

Pretty shot there of Reagan National Airport in a sunny Washington, D.C. Sunny. It's beautiful. You know, when we've been talking over the past several months about younger voters seeming to break away from Joe Biden more, we've been they've been looking at it through sort of the wrong lens, talking about Gaza. Obviously, their concerns on college campuses and with younger voters about Gaza. But it is inflation when you really dig into the numbers. It is inflation and younger Americans having trouble buying gasoline, having trouble buying groceries and most importantly, trouble getting their first home. It is inflation that is driving them away from the Biden administration. The inflation data yesterday released revealed some good news for cash strap shoppers. Grocery prices dropped for the first time in a year. Food prices fell by two

tenths of a percent in April, according to the Labor Department's consumer price report. It is the first drop in a year. Eggs led the decline, with prices dropping more than 7 percent. Steve Ratner is over at the wall with charts to break it all down. Steve, what do you got? And can this continue? Because it's going to take a while for people to really feel the effects of this. Yeah, look, as you guys have said and Joe just said, the inflation data is critical to the election. And it has not gone well so far.

But this may be the beginning of a better trend. So let's take a look at what happened yesterday, which was that the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced their latest data. And inflation is now this is this is headline, we call headline, all the goods up 3.4% year over year. And then we take out food and energy because they move around a lot, 3.6. But you can see what was happening, that we had gotten inflation down, it stalled out, it actually increased a little bit. And now we have somewhat better news. And I'm going to show you both in the financial markets and in public opinion, consumer sentiment, how that's affected. But what's also really important to note is that, yeah, a bunch of stuff is still going up.

Carbonyl insurance is a really small part. It's 6% of the index. It's not something people buy every day. When you start to look at what people buy every day, you see food up 2.6 percent, I'm sorry, 2.2 percent year over year, things lined up, food up 2.2 percent year over year, energy, gasoline, home heating, all that stuff up 2.6 percent year over year. And then goods, anything you buy, you know, a piece of merchandise actually down 1.3 percent year over year, led by furniture, appliances and so forth. And so it is it is a picture of inflation that perhaps the average American doesn't fully appreciate how much prices have moderated,

especially for the things they buy every day. Yeah. But Steve, let's look at the housing up there. We're talking about housing and you look look at young, again, young, young voters. If you look at housing, if you look at the cost of cars, we were just talking about offset, how automobiles, used automobiles still. Still, it's just, you know, I was out last night at an event and people were talking about how hard it is to still get a decent car. Well, it's not a decent car. I'm talking like I'm not talking about one of your Rolls Royce. I'm talking about cars, a Ford Fusion, if they even make one of those anymore. Well, look, first on housing. Yes, housing is still going up.

The big problem on housing, as you know, is simply the affordability of a new house. House prices are still high, but mortgages are also high, which means the affordability, the ability of someone to afford a mortgage literally, has gone down so much that for many young people, an 8% mortgage just makes a house unaffordable. And that's a huge problem. And one of the good things about the CPI numbers is it may give the Federal Reserve some leeway to cut interest rates a bit,

which would bring down mortgage rates a bit. It's not going to be dramatic between now and November, but maybe a little bit of help. Steve, why is car rental and insurance so expensive? There's a whole longer conversation. No, I mean, it's 11.5%. He's complaining. No, it's 11 and a half percent. No, it's not that I'm complaining. It's just like if you're working and your work makes you fly from city to city, let's say you're in insurance or you're in finance or you're just there.

You know, the people every week I see on planes and that's what they do. And so they get off the plane and then they have to go and they're dealing with still 11, 12 percent increase. And what car rentals cost, man, that's that it cuts into their salary. It does. This is only six percent of the index. Let's start with that. Secondly, a lot of it is driven by insurance. And this is a longer discussion probably for CNBC. But insurance rates are going driven by insurance. And this is a longer discussion probably for CNBC, but insurance rates are going up across. I'm happy to talk about it. Tell me when to stop. For the money people. I like purple. Go to the next chart.

All right. Go to the next chart. You want to ask me something or should I just plunge? No, talk about wages. Please. I don't think there's anything that I could ask you that would rise to the level of your expertise. We're not CNBC anchors. I don't have like the lingo. So what do you got, Steve? Wages. This is the key point. Yesterday, somebody was complaining to me about inflation.

I said, well, the real key is whether wage increase is keeping up with the inflation increase because you don't want deflation. That's right. And so now you're going to tell me whether I was correct in saying that wages are keeping up. You are very correct. You're very correct. If you go back to 2020 now, it is almost like I'm a host on CNBC.

Go. It's that was not a CNBC crack was not aimed at you, Joe. The if you go back to the inflation or you, Mika. Oh, no, that was definitely. He's going after Mara. He's going after Mara and me. They were like financial idiots over here. It was actually aimed at Heilman.

Fair enough. All right. So if you go back to if you go back to when inflation was high back in 2022, it absolutely did not keep up wages. It absolutely did not keep up. But since inflation has moderated, inflation has moderated faster than wages have come down. I'm also moderate. And so you have had, Joe, to your point from well more than a year now, wage increases running above inflation increases. Four percent on average for wages, three point four percent for inflation. Not a huge difference, but positive purchasing power. And if you looked at the bottom quarter of Americans, they have done materially better than this four percent.

And so for the bottom group of Americans, their purchasing power has actually increased by more than this. Hey, Steve, can I ask you this question as Alex goes crazy because I'm just blowing past every break here. You really have no discipline. You know, post-COVID, because you're talking about the bottom third of Americans doing better here. The history of this country from the early 1980s onward are the rich were getting richer, the poor were getting poor. Post-COVID, actually, the lower third, lower half of Americans actually were getting ahead for the first time and doing better for the first time. Are we still there? Are some of those safety net measures, post-COVID measures, are they now

running out? And are we returning to the old model of the rich net measures, post-COVID measures? Are they now running out? And are we returning to the old model of the rich getting richer, the poor getting poorer? No, income inequality is actually still narrowing. But the reason it's narrowing, the post-COVID program certainly helped for a while. They are phasing out. But what really helps is the fact that we're running the economy with a very low unemployment rate. And so what that means is that employers have to pay more to get their workers. And you couple that with a lot of the minimum wage

increases that were imposed during COVID and things like that, there's actually more demand for lower end workers than for higher end workers. And so they pay more at the lower end. And that is really what is driving this significant increase in wages. And Americans don't appreciate it, but their purchasing power is going up at this moment, especially for those near the bottom. But let me show you one other interesting side of this chart, and then we can move on. But if you start to look at it by state, and these numbers are not as precise, if you start to look at it by state, you see some interesting things, which is that there are some states, Louisiana, West Virginia, where consumers have been losing, have been losing ground, where their real wages have not kept up.

But there are other states, including a couple of key swing states, where, in fact, it's going the other way. Wisconsin, it looks like real wages adjusted for inflation are up something like 7%. It may or may not be a coincidence. I'll leave that to Heilman to say whether that's perhaps part of why Biden performed better in that New York Times poll in Wisconsin than any of the other states. But you also have positive real wages in Michigan. Pennsylvania is down a little bit. Nevada is effectively flat. Arizona is actually up 1.8 percent. And Georgia, which we can argue about whether it's even a swing state anymore, down two. All right.

But can I do my last one? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Last one quickly. But look, this is an interesting chart that I don't think we've ever looked at. But it's so dramatic, Joe, that I did want to show it, which is the relationship to your earlier point between inflation and consumer sentiment. So back here in 2000, even in 2020, you had high consumer sentiment, low inflation. Then inflation shoots up. Consumer sentiment falls off a cliff. Then inflation starts to come down. Consumer sentiment goes right back up again.

And then this very last month, because inflation had stalled out and actually had reversed and gone the wrong way for a month or two, consumer sentiment fell again. And so the tie between these two is just is incredibly dramatic. And it needs to penetrate people that we are bringing down inflation. And then very lastly, the stock market has voted on the Biden policies and on inflation. It's up 43 percent since the president took office. It's up about 18 percent this year. And it had a huge day yesterday because of these good consumer price numbers, which raised the prospect of the Fed hopefully being able to cut interest rates at some point. So interesting. Another week like that, Heilman, and he will buy

a Rolls Royce. Morning, Joe, economic analyst Steve Bratner. No, he's will buy a Rolls Royce. Morning, Joe, economic analyst. Steve Bratner. No, he's not getting a Rolls. A Rolls of my very own. Kind of random, but Morgan Radford did a piece on inflation relocation, where states are offering incentives to people to move to more rural parts of the country where prices are lower. Isn't that interesting? And it's happening.

That's the offshoot. West Virginia. All right. Coming up, the Boston Celtics book a third straight trip to the Eastern Conference Finals. You're the best, Steve, even though you know I'd never make it on CNBC. Seriously. Okay.

ESPN's Pablo Torre joins us for the latest out of the NBA playoffs, as well as the Major League Baseball player who Pablo says deserves a zillion dollar paycheck. Who's that? Morning Joe will be right back. Neither team has a timeout ward to childs and that's it for the third straight season new york has eliminated Miami in a deciding game. You told me that I can wear this as a head thing.

I didn't know. I've had it for a long time. I got it as a gift from Wilbur. What is going on? I think it looks huge. I mean, I'm just doing my best to channel Gen Z. It's an Hermes. No one's bad at it.

Somebody gave me a gift. It's Wilbur, actually, not just somebody. Most important person on Earth. That's an Hermes? That's a good. Somebody gave me a... It's Wilbert, actually, not just somebody. Most important person on Earth. That's an Hermes thing? It's a good look. I don't know what to do. Did you get that from Radness World? I don't understand.

Oh, yeah. I don't understand. Well, she just explained it to you. For my hair. Okay. I think it looks great. I think it looks... This is really cute.

Oh, that is very... And then tie it and let it hang down the back. Thank you. Thank you. Tomorrow. Oh, we can do sports now. I'm and let it hang down the back. Thank you. Tomorrow. I'm going to clean up. A clip of Jeff Van Gundy. This gum.

Jeff Van Gundy could not pull that off. Jeff Van Gundy could not do it. No. All right, so if you're watching at home and you're wondering what's happening, whenever we do sports segments, Mika, she cleans out her purse. It's bad. She's like, she's digging in there. There's like old gum.

What do you do, Alex? If you can keep the shot off of me as much as possible, we will go around the table. I have the dogs. This is for Hobson. Once a month. Please and tics. You've got to shove it down his throat without getting bitten. All right.

Well, we've bumped in with New York Knicks the last time they advanced to the NBA's finals and conference finals in 2000. Now, if you could make little noise, that would be awesome. Now this year's team is just one game away from reaching those heights and once again sending New York City fans into a sports frenzy, burning down buildings, making it generally unsafe for children and their loved ones to walk down city streets.

It's bringing in speaking up host of Pablo Torrey finds out on Metal Ark Media. The ESPN's Pablo Torrey. Pablo, we have so much to talk about. Yes, there's so much on this desk now. It's all right. The gum. No, no, no. I'm just monitoring all of the elements. So do we want to just cut through all the noise and just say, hey, we're getting ready for a Celtics Nuggets final? Are we jumping ahead too quickly? Do the Knicks have a great shot of pulling this out? This is the greatest time to be a Knicks fan in the last 50 years. And are you a Knicks fan? I have a complicated relationship. Yeah. 50? Well, OK, since 1970.

Roundings, 74. I'll do apologies to that title team. But since that first title was won in 1970, I think Knicks fans have been starving for a feeling like what they get. What is it? A thrill up their leg watching Jalen Brunson, I believe. Jalen Brunson, Joe, is the most popular athlete in New York since Derek Jeter. And that's all due apologies to Eli Manning, who won two Super Bowl rings to John Starks.

You can see sort of being an AAU basketball dad on the baseline at these games. Jalen Brunson may not make the NBA finals, as you alluded to. But what he is, which is the star on a Cinderella-style team of bodies with one foot, all of the principles of their coach, Tom Thibodeau, who likes to wear ligaments to the bone, is something that has deserved a parade on 7th Avenue, which he actually gets after games, even though they, again, may not make the finals. So I just want to salute the fact that delusion and optimism are overlapping in a Venn diagram of a six-foot point guard. Okay.

Or 40. So who do you think wins if the Celtics play the next? I think the Celtics win. Yeah, of course you do. So what about in the West? Do you think the Nuggets, have you finally given up on the Timberwolves? You know. That was cute for a little while.

I went real hard on this show about how Anthony Edwards was a bit of a Michael Jordan figure. He's had a breakout. He's Jordan figure. He's had a breakout. He's been great. He's been great. But Nikola Jokic, three MVPs in four years, just had. Best player in the game. I mean, he had the best quarter of his life. This is the best player in the game, that third quarter in this one,

the last one. And they look like they are spanking a very young team, to be mild about it. Any comments from over here? Yeah, well, the Celtics, they won last night. They took care of the Cavaliers. They've taken advantage of a pretty soft path to this point in the playoffs.

That's right. They haven't been tested. I always hear the same thing about the Celtics, though. They just don't have the killer instinct. That's what I've been saying. That is true. I still have questions about the coach. You know this what I've been saying. That is true. I still have questions about the coach. You know this. I've been saying this for a couple

years now. They're still missing Porzingis. They hope he's back next round. He is a difference there. But they do. They have not really been tested. But if passes pro up, they struggle at the end of tight games, which they're going to have either at a raucous Master Garden or certainly in the finals against Nuggets or whoever. They've made six of eight

Eastern Conference finals. No titles, though. And zero titles. So as much as I'm laughing at the Knicks, I look forward to laughing at you. Well, I'm just saying, here's the thing. I'm a Knicks fan, and I hate the Celtics. But regardless of my personal feelings, this is going to be the marquee matchup. It's the dream for the NBA.

For the NBA. These are teams with national followings. And you think about a seven game, potentially a seven game series in Boston Garden and in Madison Square Garden. It's going to be electrifying. And I'm a Western Conference guy by heart. But the West doesn't.

The great teams, but the Nuggets do not electrify the country in the way or the media, sports media in particular, the way that this one is going to. We're going to be obsessed, right? So, Pablo, this doesn't involve SEC football or Premier League soccer. So I'm ready to move on. 15 seconds. Tell me what's happening in the NHL.

15 seconds? 15 seconds. The Boston – I mean, should we throw the parade for the Boston Bruins extending the series, winning 2-1? Still down three games to two. I would say the story is the Rangers, who I think a lot of people think might be the best in the league, had a 3-0 lead in the series, have lost two. A little bit of anxiety here among New York sports fans.

Are the Rangers the best team in the league? I think so. Yeah. I think so. And Jim Dolan, who is responsible for my complicated feelings about the New York Knicks and also the New York Rangers. You have a very complicated life. I want to hear more. I have a lot of neuroses, guys.

I don't know if you've noticed. Ask about the Beacon Theater. Anything. Exactly. The sphere. You guys know what? The sphere. If Jim Dolan could pay more attention to the sphere, I think his sports teams would be

better off. But the Rangers and the Knicks right now look like they're responsible for Madison Square Garden, living up to a reputation that is deserved, which is that is the most fun building and the most famous arena. So we could have. It could happen. You could have the most famous arena. So we could have. It could happen. You could have the trifecta. Knicks, Rangers, Billy Joel.

Oh, there it is. I love Billy Joel. I was thinking maybe sneak the Yankees in there, but Billy Joel also. You know, last time I checked, Pablo, now I know this is your category, but last time I checked. No complicated feelings with the Yankees for me. The Yankees didn't play in Madison Square Garden. No, but they are first in the AL East, just in case anyone's asking.

All right, let's talk about Juan Soto. I mean, Juan is an extraordinary presence. He's been extraordinary since, remember when he was a rookie in the World Series? The Soto shuffle. And he was pissing off

Verlander, who was going to get the best of him, threw him a high fastball, and Soto shuffle. And he was pissing off Verlander. That's right. Who was going to get the best of him, threw him a high fastball and Soto buried it. Pissing off Verlander the way that my presence extending this segment pisses off Mika. That is the vibe that I get from Juan Soto, who has now more walks than any player

in the history of baseball before age 26. What about the Premier League, Joe? Joe. It's ugly. I just want to make this very clear. I don't have to pay anything to afford Juan Soto. I just want the Yankees to give him a billion dollars. He's a one-year contract, $31 million.

He's going to deserve a half a billion. Juan Soto will. And he deserves it. Now he's negotiating salaries. Oh, for Red Sox update, we lost last night. Caitlin Clark, Game 2. Tell us about her. So a funny thing is happening here, right?

So a lot of the veterans in WNBA have said she's going to struggle. Diana Taurasi has said this specifically. And she did struggle. 20 points is great, but 10 turnovers is the most for a debut. And this, of course, is not just any debut. This is the most exciting, greatest player in the history of women's college basketball. And so her team is not very good, Joe. Her team isn't very good.

They got her because, in fact, they won the draft lottery. So that's great. A bit of a curve. But 2.3 million people watched this game, which is the record. I love that. So it's an adjustment for her, too. It is. We have to.

Totally. Yeah. All right. Who's going to win the PGA tournament? Oh. Championship. Oh. Golf.

Who do you guys got? Scheffler? Scheffler? Sure. Scheffler. Scotty Scheffler. I mean, a boring but reasonable choice is Scotty Scheffler, which is the post-Tiger era in general. Got any other names?

I mean, I don't think he does. I like Rory. I like Rory. Rory. The question with Rory is he's great when it's not a major. And so I want to say Rory just dominated last weekend, but now we have a major and he tends to choke in this. Do we have the Preakness this weekend? Oh, my God.

Oh, wait. Very exciting. Do we have the Preakness this weekend? I don't know. Yeah. I know we have the Premier League. this weekend i don't know yeah i know we have premier league premier league's last and then how many times i've talked about the premier league for about five minutes it's the last game of the season and joe cares about the premier league i don't know if you do do you care about soccer

no not really i'm a real american i care about the preakness well no no do you not care about premier league i do but i'm no roger. Okay, now. Well, that's clear. I mean, I'm just aware of my station on this program. But you know your value. I do. Okay. As long as I'm not getting choked out by the stars. Liverpool is collapsed.

Well, Liverpool is collapsed. It's Man City and Man City are also. I know. Man City. Congratulations to Manchester City. Man City is going to probably win. Do you know anything about horse racing? I know that they're not aware of how much they matter to humans,

the horses, when they're racing. Really? Yeah, yeah, yeah. So much to tell them that a lot's riding on this. So, Pablo, we're pitching this, and you may want to be a part of this. Okay. Is this Shark Tank? If it's close to your birthday, please come up.

Yeah, Mara. The Belmont is going to be run in Sarasota Springs for the first time. Yeah, Sarasota Springs. Yep. Saratoga Springs. Saratoga. Saratoga Springs. It's early.

Saratoga Springs for the first time, which is an extraordinary setting. I think we need to do a Morning Joe show from there the Friday before the Belmont. I will wear my fascinator. I'll get my own headgear. We can make it into a real thing. I love to wear hats. I love to chat. I look good in hats, as we just showed.

Whatever it is, I'm in. Pablo Torre, this has been a mess. Oh, I forgot to ask you about the assassination in Slovakia. Yeah, you did. No, that is so horrible. We're going to update that next hour. I think opera is the most overrated art form, arguably, in world history.

Is that a hot enough take? Okay. We're going to update that. Was that not the lead of that story? Yeah. Unbelievably horrific attack. Thanks for trying to make light of it, Pablo. Seriously, Pablo's like, you know, let's make a joke.

I didn't think this was for you guys. We'll be right back.