Morning Joe - Morning Joe 6/29/23

Episode Date: June 29, 2023

A key passage in Mark Meadows biography undercuts Trump’s latest docs defense

domingo herman delivering a perfect game late last night for the new york yankees that was out in oakland marking only the 24th perfect game in the history of Major League Baseball and the first in more than a decade. Getting it done, Jonathan Lemire, Domingo German, I know you're a big fan. You've often called him the Don Larson of his time. Now becoming the fourth New York Yankee to throw a perfect game beginning with Don Larson in the World Series in 1956. David Wells, David Cohn had him in the late 90s. And now German, who has been, let's say, up and down this season, gave up 10 runs in three innings in his last start, was just unbelievable last night. He only went to a three-ball count with two hitters.

He was basically untouchable, throwing a perfect game. The Yankees win 11-0. Can you, even a Red Sox fan, muster any excitement for this moment in history? Domingo Herman, the fourth Yankee to ever throw a perfect game, the first Yankee to do so in the same season in which he was suspended for 10 games for having sticky stuff on his glove for being busted for cheating. Setting that aside, you're right. He's an unlikely candidate to do this. He has never beaten the A's before in his career. He has been really up and down this year.

In fact, he is available on the waiver wire in my fancy baseball league. Anybody could have him because he has not been very good. But this is brilliant last night. I mean, it is baseball history. Setting aside my own feelings about the Yankees, this is something that's only happened a couple dozen times in the history of the sport. Sadly, it happened in front of only about 12,000 fans there in Oakland, a franchise that has been treated so shabbily by the league.

It's always history. Congratulations to Mr. Hermann. And from the sound of it, mostly Yankee fans, 72 of his 99 pitches were thrown for strikes. Mika, a very exciting moment. We have a busy news day, but this just happened overnight. Again, only the 24th perfect game. Mika, a very exciting moment. We have a busy news day, but this just happened

overnight. Again, only the 24th perfect game, 27 up, 27 down in order in the history of Major League Baseball. Yeah. And Jonathan Lemire's analysis is great, except for the part where he didn't say this would never, ever happen to the Red Sox. But a perfect game for the Yankees. Sorry, Jonathan sorry it's true thank you no you don't have them no good morning everyone and welcome to morning joe it is thursday june 29th and with us uh we have as you saw the host of way too early white house beer chief at politico jonathan lemire u.s special correspondent for bb, Katty Kay, is with us. Former White House director of communications to President Obama, Jen Palmieri,

and the president of the National Action Network and host of MSNBC's Politics Nation, Reverend Al Sharpton, joins us this morning. So get this. A memoir from Donald Trump's own former White House chief of staff appears to undercut the former president's latest and many defenses for his willful mishandling of classified documents. So earlier this week, you remember this leaked audio from a 2021 meeting seemingly capturing former President Trump showing off what he admitted was a classified document. This is at his club in Bedminster about a potential plan to attack Iran from while he was president. Well, with Milley, let me see that. I'll show you an example. He said that I wanted to attack Iran. Isn't it amazing? I have a big pile of papers. This thing just came up. Look. This was him. They presented me this. This is off the record, but they presented me this. This was him. This was the Defense Department and him. Wait a minute. Let's see here.

Yeah. I just found, isn't that amazing? This totally wins my case, you know. Except it is like highly confidential secret. This is secret information. This was done by the military, given to me. I think we can probably, right? I don't know. We'll have to see.

Yeah, we'll have to try to figure out. See, as president, I couldn't have de-classified. No, I can't. But this is. Now we have a problem. Isn't that interesting? Yeah. You could.

You got to love the staff going. I think we have a problem. That recorded conversation took place during a meeting with ghostwriters who were interviewing Trump for a memoir being published by his former chief of staff, Mark Meadows. In the days since that audio leaked, the former president has claimed all sorts of things like he was not showing off military plans. No, of course not. Not on that tape. What you heard was him waving around plans for new buildings and golf courses and newspaper clippings.

But according to a message, a passage from Meadows' memoir, Trump did discuss Iran attack plans while being interviewed for the book. And in it, Meadows wrote, quote, the president recalls a four page report typed up by Mark Milley himself. It contained the general's own plan to attack Iran, deploying massive numbers of troops, something he urged President Trump to do more than once during his presidency. Willie, this is so painful. I mean, you could see when Trump was trying to explain this away with an interview to Fox, I believe, that he was like, it was golf plans. It was my pants. It was my shirts. You could hear the papers rustling.

I mean, that was literally him trying to buy time to think of an excuse. This is in the book. And remember, if this is in the indictment, chances are the people who were in that room, including the sink offense, who couldn't say, Mr. President, please put away classified documents. And why are they here? All of those people potentially interviewed. Yeah. And this memoir, this memoir for Mark Meadows provides corroboration, one would think, for Jack Smith in the special counsel's office, where he says in the memoir explicitly, this is a four page attack plan prepared by General Milley and presented to Donald Trump exactly like the one he appears to be describing on that audio tape. And Rev, when you listen to these explanations from from Donald Trump, he's he's sort of painting himself as a martyr.

I'm getting indicted for you, he's saying to his crowds and just hoping that they buy the explanation that this is all part of a greater witch hunt, that this is all because they don't want him to be in the White House again. They being the Justice Department, they being the FBI, they being the special counsel. It remains to be seen if that passes outside of his group of close followers who seem to buy anything he presents them. Well, inside that small group, they want to buy it. I mean, he plays into something that's already in them. But I think in terms of the expanded body of people that he's shooting for, it becomes more and more difficult when his own chief of staff's memoirs say he does do what this tape says he did, and they caught him on tape. I mean, it doesn't even really make sense.

Why would you have building plans in your hand while you're talking about Milley saying that we ought to give more troops to Iran? It just does. It's totally inconceivable unless you want to make that something. And Mika makes a good point. People that gave the tape are going to likely testify at Donald Trump's trial. And they will say, this is what he said. This is what he showed. We never talked about golf carts or buildings. And who's going to refute that? Is Donald Trump going to take the stand? Because the only one that can get on the stand

and contradict that is Donald Trump. And if he does that, then they need to get the handcuffs ready because they will kill him in a cross examination. Yeah. If he ever got on the stand, seems unlikely, but perhaps we'll see. He might want to go defend himself. Jen Palmieri, perhaps the obvious explanation for these increasingly absurd explanations from Donald Trump of what was in his hand is because there's no good argument. There's no defense for it. So you have to just throw stuff out there. Hope it gets caught up in the fog machine of misinformation and that enough people buy what you're saying to not see the truth that

he explicitly describes on the tape, a defense department document in his hand. Yeah. And he says, I just happen to have it here in my in the pile of papers. And there's there's there's a few things. I think there's a few notable things going on going on with with this particular situation one i am surprised that he got so defensive and felt the need to try to explain away what he said as opposed to being as opposed to having bravado in his response as well as what he said he did on the on the tape uh to say you know just to say as he has said before you know like uh it's it's my right. I have these things. But to be so defensive and changing his story and obviously, obviously formulating his response in real time as he's speaking, settling on plans and then moving from, you know, talking about plans that maybe it's all his golf plans or his house plans. The second thing I think is worth noting, this is the second time we have heard audio of him talking about a Mark Milley memo.

Right. So imagine we just happen to have learned about these audio tapes. Imagine how many more the prosecutor may have. Right. This this could just be the tip of the iceberg. And also, it's interesting to think about why are we hearing these audio tapes? Who's releasing them? It could be Mark Meadows. It could be Meadows' staff. It could be the prosecutors thinking it's good for people to see we have a strong case. And there's a lot of people who have access to this tape. So no one's going to think maybe it was the prosecutors.

But it's also worth considering why these tapes are getting out into the public. Yeah. And how they're getting out there. And again, this was a group of ghostwriters for Mark Meadows's memoir sitting in the room. That's who you're hearing on that tape, along with Donald Trump and a staff member. So now to the politics of all this. What does it mean for Donald Trump? Well, it appears to be helping him again. Donald Trump's grip over the Republican base only tightening recently. This, as support stalls for the person once viewed as the party's best chance to move on from Donald Trump in 2024. That is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. In a new analysis of

the Republican primary race, The Washington Post writes, quote, Trump is delivering a combative message to Republican primary voters that is resonating with many of them. He has adopted policy positions and rhetoric that have grown more confrontational and extreme and continues to make false claims, including about his 2020 election defeat. Trump has responded to his indictments with relentless attacks on the justice system. Allies and advisors to Trump rivals say there is plenty of time to reshape the race with debates, intensive field organizing and early state momentum. But few deny Trump has

only grown more formidable in the first half of the year, while the race to displace him is more unsettled than ever. Case in point, new polling out of Pennsylvania, critical swing state, of course, in the election. According to the Quinnipiac University poll, former President Trump is now leading a crowded Republican field with 49 percent support among registered Republican voters. That nearly doubles Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who gets 25 percent support. Chris Christie, Mike Pence, Nikki Haley, Senator Tim Scott down in single digits in a hypothetical 2024 general election matchup between Biden and Trump in the state of Pennsylvania. In this poll, the race is a virtual

dead heat. Forty seven percent support Trump. Forty six percent support Biden. Still, the three leading candidates, Biden, Trump and DeSantis, are all underwater when it comes to their favorable numbers. Not good for any of those three right there. So, Katty K, take all that in. And we just have to now confront and accept the fact that this stuff is only for now making Donald Trump stronger within the Republican Party. We'll see if a pile of indictments coming out of Georgia, coming out of January 6th, more from New York, if that does hurt him. But in the short term, he has painted himself again as a martyr and a victim, and it is working inside

the primary. Yeah, I mean, it is worth pointing out there is a poll that's just come out of Wisconsin, which kind of shows the opposite, that shows Biden's lead over Trump growing. So there are some good numbers, too, for the White House. I just wrote about a piece about this for the BBC and this kind of counterintuitive effect that this is having. All of this is having on Donald Trump's standing in the primaries. And what he's being able to do is in a way, it's almost like the more indictments there are, the more legal problems there are. He is managing to flip that to his supporters, to the base of the Republican Party and clearly even beyond his base and say, look, you see, this is all proof that I'm the

victim of a witch hunt from the Democratic administration and from the Department of Justice. Because if there was one case, well, maybe that's one thing. But the fact that there are now so many cases against me shows it must show all of these cases must show that this is a deliberate effort by them to bring me down because they fear me as a political candidate and that message is resonating the other message that seems to be resonating with republican voters and not just his base but beyond his base is they're coming after me to come after you so when they when they slap me with another lawsuit whether it's about mar-a-lago or whether it's about eugene carroll

or whether it's about documents and business dealings in New York or potentially even Georgia, then they're actually coming after you. And one Republican strategist I spoke to said, just watch. You know, when the Georgia indictment comes down, his poll numbers will go up again. His fundraising will go up again in the light of that as well. Now, that doesn't mean that when we get to the general election, all of this won't get flipped on its head and have the inverse effect with swing voters who say, actually, you know what? We don't want to vote for somebody who's been criminally charged. You know, in an interview on CNN last night,

former New Jersey governor and 2024 hopeful Chris Christie criticized Donald Trump in the wake of this week's leaked audio tape and offered his own theories about why the former president kept classified documents after leaving office. I mean, the thing that struck me the most was that that is what Donald Trump is like most of the time, constantly rationalizing his own bad behavior, justifying what he's doing at the very moment that he's doing it, even when he knows it's wrong, and showing off. He's the consummate show-off. And I think that's what that tape was, him showing off. People ask me, going all the way back to the time of the raid last year of Mar-a-Lago, like, why would he keep these documents? People are like, is he going to give them to a foreign government or sell them to somebody or blackmail people? Like, you don't understand Donald Trump. It's just a show off. He wants to continue to act like he's president.

He can't live with the fact that he's not. And so that's why he kept those documents. It seems childish and stupid, and it is, but that's the reason why, in my view, he's always kept them. Why do you think his excuses keep changing for why he had those documents? Because he's getting cornered. He's getting cornered and he'll lie about anything. I think the latest lie is the one that he said just yesterday, right, where he said, I wasn't really showing him anything. It was just bravado. He was essentially saying he was lying to the people he was sitting with. He was cornered by the Brett Baier interview. The Brett Baier

interview put him in a horrible box that I don't think he's ever going to be able to get out of. Where he said it wasn't a document per se. Well, that, but he also, the bigger problem he has, is that he admitted he had the documents. He knew about the grand jury subpoena, but he was too busy to go through the boxes to see what was classified and what wasn't. And he didn't want to just turn the boxes to see what was classified and what wasn't. And he didn't want to just turn the boxes over because he had golf shirts and golf pants in there. I mean, come on. There's nobody in America who believes that story. So Chris Christie, like a lot of us, have has has had direct time closely working with Donald Trump and brings us into his mindset there. And I'd like to add, having watched him closely as well at times and having had known him, the possibility that he

and his team released the audio, there's always that. And I'll tell you why. Jonathan Lamere, it's part of his process of desensitizing the public to something that is shocking. This is something Donald Trump does well and then festers on the anger of it to play in the court of public opinion, which, of course, is important because he's running for president. And when you're running for the presidency and you have indictments coming at you, the only way you can get out of jail is to be president. So in a way, he's running for his get out of jail free card. And and you see him, as Chris Christie said, constantly rationalizing things, lying about them. He does show off. He's right. There's a lot of bravado there.

I remember early on in his presidency, in the first weeks we were in the Oval Office and he kept saying, have you been in the Oval Office before? Have you ever seen think he understands is that in the court of law, they don't really care what people think. They're using these facts to build a case. Yeah, his only hope there would be simply the idea of jury nullification, that there's just one juror who's just going to be a secret Trump holdout and simply wouldn't vote to convict. But you're right, it's a very different game once you're inside that quorum versus what he's used to, which is in the political sphere. And I had a similar experience. I've told this story before on the show. I was in the Oval Office in an interview a couple of years into his presidency, and he suddenly whipped out using the same idea of like, hey, this is off the record. Don't tell anybody. And suddenly pulled out a classified document, a letter that he had received from

Kim Jong Un. He does love to show off, stress how important he is and wants to impress whoever he's with, whoever that might be. But Janet Palmieri, we just heard from Chris Christie there being sharply critical, doing some straight talk express, if you will. Like, calling it like it, he sees it in terms of Trump and his excuses, nonsensical excuses about those classified documents. But Christie is pretty much a lone voice right now among the Republican field. And to make his point, has been utterly drowned out how by Trump is shaping this issue. And whether Trump was behind the audio leak or not, he's certainly gotten ahead of the story. And he's talking about it and painting it further as part of this witch hunt that's made to bring him down.

Do you see any scenario where Donald Trump doesn't win that competition against the likes of Chris Christie in shaping the narrative for Republican voters? Well, I'm surprised, honestly, at how, I mean, Chris Christie's at 5%. That is not very high,

but I'm pretty sure that's higher than he ever was in 16. And he is, you know, in that class of people that's in single digits, he's doing better than others. I mean, that's a low bar, but it is, that is class of people that's in single digits, he's doing better than others. I mean, that's a low bar, but it is—that is striking to me that—because, you know, there is a population of Republican primary voters that feel the same way Christie does,

that do want Donald Trump to be held accountable, and they do want to move on from him. So it is striking to me that Christie is getting as much attention as he is and that he is that his support is growing. He is not going to be the Republican nominee or anything close to it. I suspect people like DeSantis are thinking, great, let Chris Christie beat up on Donald Trump so I don't have to let him make all these arguments about why Trump is vulnerable as a general election candidate. So I don't have to. But I think that that's that's a really risky strategy, as you see, you know, when

Katty was going over all the ways that these indictments, you know, every every indictment that comes down, the less any individual one might matter. The pile up may not hurt him as, you know, as we expected it could. And so I think that people like DeSantis are taking a big risk by not pointing out in real time Trump's vulnerabilities as it's related to the indictments, because he could just get a head of steam that is insurmountable. Rev, I don't know about you, but Trump's never waived any classified documents around in front of me. I'm feeling left out here. Just showed me like signed footballs from Doug Flutie and stuff like that.

But Rev, as we were watching Chris Christie make a very obvious case of what's going on here because he knows Donald Trump and he's speaking truth. But he is a lonely man in this race. He's a very lonely man. And are we foolish? Every time one of these indictments come down, every time there's some bad news for Donald Trump, somebody will come on and say, well, maybe this is the moment. This is the exit ramp. This is a chance for people to break with Donald Trump. After eight years of observing him as a presidential candidate and as president, shouldn't we know by now it's just not going to change the trajectory of his Donald Trump after eight years of observing him as a presidential candidate and as president. Shouldn't we know by now it's just not going to change the trajectory of his assent again, perhaps to become the nominee?

No, we should know by now that it's not going to change his hardcore following. We can hope and pray that some of the more reasonable Republicans would change. But it seems like they're going along with it. And, you know, I've known Donald Trump 35 years, mostly fighting him. But at times he would try to be a Democrat, try to prove himself to be liberal. And he's never showed me any papers. I refuse to meet with him, even though he called me twice when he's president. But I've met with him many times before. And if you meet with him at Trump Towers, he's always showing something to validate himself. You're dealing with a man with deep insecurities

that surrounds himself with phony cover stories of himself in his own in his own office i mean who does that he makes up phony front covers so if you need that kind of validation of course you'll need to validate to somebody i i really have power i really was president look at these classified documents you've got to psychoanalyze a man who is deeply insecure that overplays it and he plays into other people's insecurities that they no longer matter america's getting away from us so we're going to make america great i'm going to save you friend they're after us they're after us when they're after me they're after you that's what's keeping his core in he's playing on the insecurity of americans that have been wrongfully feeling displaced and that is a sad commentary,

but that's where we are. All right. Much more politics ahead, including what's going on with Ron DeSantis's campaign. But first time now for a look at some other stories making headlines this morning. The Supreme Court will likely hand down major decisions on landmark cases later this morning. The nation's highest court still has open cases concerning affirmative action, LGBTQ plus rights, student loan forgiveness and religious rights. In recent decisions, some conservative justices have sided with the liberal wing of the bench on things like election law and minority voting rights. But those decisions were not conclusive. That means they could end up back at the court with different rulings later on.

Experts of the court expect the remaining cases to be ruled in the conservative justices' favor. We'll see, Willie. And as you say, those coming down in just a few hours this morning, we believe. Meanwhile, crews have recovered debris now and presumed human remains from the Titanic submersible that imploded nearly two weeks ago. Now, the Marine Board of Investigation will examine the debris to try and analyze why the Titan imploded.

Coast Guard says the investigation could also provide evidence for possible civil or criminal legal action. Five people were on board the submersible Titan when it imploded on June 18th while descending to the wreck of the Titanic. The debris was found a few days later, more than 12,000 feet down on the seafloor, just 1,600 feet from the wreck of the Titanic, Mika. All right, and Madonna has postponed her upcoming world tour after being admitted to a hospital's intensive care unit with a bacterial infection. In an Instagram post, Madonna's manager said the 64-year-old pop icon developed the serious infection on Saturday. According to the post, Madonna remains under medical supervision, but is expected,

doctors say, to make a full recovery. The music legend aimed to celebrate the 40th anniversary of her breakout single, Holiday, by embarking on her first ever Greatest Hits tour. It was scheduled to begin next month in Vancouver. A new start date has not been announced. But wish her the best. My predecessor, if my mom were here, God bless his soul, my predecessor enacted the latest iteration of the fail theory. Tax cuts for the wealthy. It wasn't paid for, and an estimated cost of his tax cut was $2 trillion.

$2 trillion. Now Republicans are at it again, pushing tax cuts for large corporations and the wealthy and adding trillions of dollars to the deficit. Trillions. Folks, let me say it as clearly as I can. The trickle-down approach failed the middle class. It failed America. All right. President Biden in Chicago yesterday touting his economic agenda while also criticizing Republicans. He's calling out Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville of Alabama for celebrating the benefits of the infrastructure law, a bipartisan bill which Tuberville opposed. Just last week, we announced our plan to bring affordable high speed Internet to end the decade of unaffordable and inaccessible Internet to every home in America, every small business in America.

And to no one's surprise. No one's surprise. It's bringing along some converts. People strenuously opposed, voting against it when we had this going on. This was going to bankrupt America. Well, there's a guy named Tuberville, a senator from Alabama, who announced he strongly opposed the legislation. Now he's hailing this passage. Here's what he said.

Quote, it's great to see Alabama receive critical funds to boost ongoing broadband efforts. This is this is the tweet that the president referenced. Tebreville posted support for the broadband access on Tuesday. Twitter users added context that the senator did not vote for the bill, but bragging on it. Really? Last night, the president's Twitter account trolled that tweet, writing, see you at the groundbreaking. Tuberville replied the groundbreaking for Space Command in Huntsville, which is a reference to the ongoing delay of a plan that would move the Space Command's headquarters from Colorado to Alabama. The Biden administration is considering ditching those plans because of Alabama's strict new anti-abortion laws. OK, so here we go, Jen.

For the general, I got to tell you, President Biden has a lot to brag on. And you have Republican senators bragging on his wins, trying to take credit for them and then branch out. Branch out, will you, to abortion, to guns, to major issues where voters are just not with the Republicans. It's smart what they're doing because it's not just the president calling out Tommy Tuberville. The cabinet is going to a lot of red states. Secretary Granholm was in South Carolina yesterday touting things from the infrastructure bill,

but also some climate provisions from the Inflation Reduction Act. And it's smart because it's hard for accomplishments to break through. But when you're able to pair the accomplishments with hypocrisy, that's a more interesting story. And so people in South Carolina, Alabama, are going to hear more about what the Biden administration is doing. And I think the administration is also trying to protect against future Republican efforts to repeal parts

of either the Inflation Reduction Act or the infrastructure bill. And, you know, I thought the speech yesterday in Chicago was really smart. The message is the plan is working, right? People polling may show that people are still worried about the economy. Certainly it does. Polling may show that people are still worried about the economy. Certainly it does. Polling may show that people don't necessarily give the president high marks on his managing of the economy. But what they're trying to show is there's a plan that we put in place when we came out of COVID. For G7 nations, America leads in both in economic growth and we have the lowest inflation among among our colleagues in the G7 and also that they've put a new foundation in with the infrastructure bill, with the chips bill on semiconductors, with the Inflation Reduction Act, so that going forward, the U.S. is going to be able to be more competitive. It's a message they're going to have to deliver from now till

Election Day, but it's a good start. And with these strong economic numbers and all the problems for Donald Trump, House Republicans and some media outlets trying to change the subject to the president's son, Hunter. And NBC News has some new reporting on how the president is approaching those issues surrounding his son. Three people familiar with the situation tell NBC News the president has made it clear to his top aides in no uncertain terms. He not only will reject any political advice that he tried to limit Hunter's public visibility, but that he also does not want to hear any such suggestions. The blunt directive from the president may help to explain why the father and son's public appearances have only increased recently as scrutiny has intensified around Hunter Biden's legal problems. People close to the president tell NBC News keeping his son

near also means keeping him safe because Hunter is a recovering drug addict. As the president reportedly wrestles with the issue, sources say he resents anyone would suggest he distance himself from his son because of what he views as unfair and outrageous Republican attacks. All that told to NBC News. So, Jonathan Lemire, I think certainly the president raised some eyebrows by bringing Hunter Biden to the state dinner a few days ago last week and made him a very visible part of that evening. This is the House Oversight Committee and other organizations within the House Republican leadership go after this issue. Hunter and try to make it the centerpiece, really, of this campaign. Yeah, this is a story where many things can be true at once, Willie. And you're right. Some Democrats and close Biden advisers were a little surprised that just two days after Hunter Biden pleaded guilty to various tax crimes,

that he then appeared at the state dinner when Prime Minister of India was in Washington. In fact, Attorney General Garland was also at that dinner. Of course, DOJ was one in charge of that case. He has told people he didn't realize Hunter Biden was going to be there and wouldn't have appeared himself had he had he known Hunter Biden. His public profile has really picked up in recent weeks. He was at his father's side throughout their trip to Ireland back in the spring. He's been spotted at more White House events lately as well. And look, it has been long known in Biden's orbit and including among White House staffers that you simply don't talk about Hunter Biden with the president, that it is it is something that he, of course, feels very deeply

about. It's his one surviving son, someone who's lived a very tough life and someone who has been very open about the tragedy he's faced, but also the drug addiction that he has continues to battle. And it's a subject the president just doesn't want to speak about. He says he has unconditional love for his son. And we have seen that on display a number of times. But it does remain, fair or not, a political issue. The Republicans, Willie, in the House are still ramping up their investigations, pointing to new whistleblower testimony that suggests that the DOJ probe was not as fair as it should have been, suggesting that there is still business dealings to probe. And I think we can, it's safe to say that Hunter Biden is going to remain a storyline heading the next

election. And at least President and Hunter's father, the president of the United States, is saying, look, I'm keeping him as close to me as I can. And you could see it even yesterday. A question was shouted as the president went out to Marine One yesterday at the White House about Hunter Biden. He said, no, he wasn't involved of any of that. But he sort of barked at the reporter a little bit. To what extent has Vladimir Putin

been weakened by recent events? It's hard to tell, but he's clearly losing the war in Iraq. He's losing the war at home. And he has become a bit of a briar around the world. It's not just NATO. It's not just the European Union. It's Japan.

It's, you know, it's 40 nations. All right, I was the president commenting on the war in Ukraine and the short lived rebellion in Russia. I misspoke there. Thomas Friedman has a column in The New York Times opinion section asking the question, what happens to Putin now? And Tom writes in part this. We should be worried as much by the prospect of Putin's defeat as by any victory. What if he is toppled? This is not like the last days of the Soviet Union. There is no nice, decent Yeltsin like or Gorbachev like figure with the power and standing to immediately take over. If Putin is ousted, we could well end up with someone worse. How would you feel if Prigozhin had been in the Kremlin this morning commanding Russia's nuclear arsenal? You could also get disorder or civil war and the crack up of Russia into

warlord oligarch fiefs. When a big state cracks apart, it's very hard to put it back together. The nuclear weapons and criminality that could spill out of a disintegrated Russia would change the world. This is not a defense of Putin. It's an expression of rage at what he did to his country, making it into a ticking time bomb spread across 11 time zones. Putin has taken the whole world hostage. If he wins, the Russian people lose. But if he loses and his successor is disorder, the whole world loses. Let's talk more about this with the president of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass. Richard, Thomas Freeman brings up a lot of good points here.

At the same time, the reality of Putin as it stands right now is not so good. No, you're right, Mikan. Thomas is right. Look, we've got a problem with a strong Putin and a weak Putin. The Putin who went into Ukraine has brought war back to Europe in ways that we thought was simply part of the past. It turns out his strength in some ways was was was false militarily. But still, he can he's doing real, real damage. And the question is, how do how do we continue to help Ukraine so it can frustrate Russia? On the other hand, Tom points to a real scenario, which is, you know, even if what happened the other day is the beginning of the end,

we don't know if it's a six month or a six year or whatever process. And we don't know ultimately how messy it is and what it leads to. And the idea of a disintegrating Russia has got to be on the short list of anyone's nightmares. Think about what's going on in Pakistan now. That's a country, again, with, what, 40, 50 nuclear weapons? Well, Russia has, what, over 4,000 or 5,000 nuclear weapons, has all sorts of splits within its society, only 140 million people. The country is failing, Mika. If you're about a 15- or 20-year-old Russian boy or man,

you have the same life expectancy as somebody in Haiti. This is a country that is just failing in every way. I think that if ultimately Putin can hand over power and the country stays intact, the day will come when he is excoriated, where Putin will be seen as having driven this country over the cliff and that he will basically be a pariah in Russian history. The real question is what damage, what more damage does he do while in power and how messy or not is the succession process? He's illegitimate. And the hallmark of an illegitimate political system is there's no orderly, legitimate process of political authority transfer. That is the danger in Russia right now. And Katty Kay, I mean, to Richard's point and to what Thomas Friedman wrote, it's not just about winning the war in Ukraine.

It's about about creating order in the world. and that's much more complicated. Yeah, and creating a Russia that the rest of the world feels they can deal with, because there is no conversation really that is taking place at the moment about how Russia gets brought back into the international community, particularly into the Western community. It obviously has relations with some non-aligned countries, China and India, but it doesn't have those with Europe at the moment. But, Richard, I was conscious last weekend as I watched the events unfold that, you know,

a little bit of optimism bias was creeping into the analysis, perhaps, particularly here. And, you know, you don't have to look very far back and look at, you know, what happened to Yugoslavia after the breakup when Tito left or, you know, even Egypt after Mubarak, we didn't get a whole lot better in Sisi. So what now that we've had a few days and I think there is a more sober assessment of what might happen to Putin, who may well double down to try and prove that he's still in power. And we've seen all those pictures of him wandering around with his minister of defense. What what does this mean, do you think, now that we've had a few days for the Ukraine effort? Do you see any impact at all on this counteroffensive that the Ukrainians have launched and on the trajectory for the war more broadly? First off, I think your point's really

spot on, what you call optimism bias. I think a lot of the Russian experts are so anti-Putin, for understandable reasons, are so supportive of Ukraine, that the analysis has been, shall we say, flavored by that. And I've been roundly criticized by a lot of them for saying that Putin, from what I can tell, has not lost his nerve, still seems to have control of the security forces, is conducting a purge. It's just premature to write his political obituary and to think that somehow he's on his way out. I think in terms of the wars, we haven't seen any clear indications. He's done some more indiscriminate bombing of Ukraine, which, again, the kind of the terror weapons against civilian areas that that continues. It's almost his version of station identification. The forces still remain in very heavily dug in defensive positions.

I think the big question for the next couple of weeks is whether now the purges at the upper ranks of the military. I just don't know how disruptive that is and whether that just distracts, whether it undermines morale. I think we'll probably learn that over the next couple of weeks because, you know, these things could have a momentum and it's possible those who think that this is the beginning of the end and it comes quickly might be right if this almost pulls a thread on the sweater of Russian troop morale and solidarity. I just haven't seen any evidence of that yet. Things like Crimea, pretty broad support in Russia for holding on to it. So my own guess, again, is Ukraine may pick up a little bit

here, but collapse, which is what a lot of people are expecting. I just don't yet see, I'm not ruling it out. I just don't see the telltale signs of it. But Putin does have a dilemma. Let me just say, to fight a war at the same time you're purging is very hard, because the question is, you've got to fight the war, essentially, with some of the people you're purging. And I think that's his moment-to-moment, day-to-day dilemma, which is how to deal with internal security at the same time he's created this external security challenge for himself. In many ways, the Wagner group he's trying to purge has been his strongest fighting force in the war against Ukraine. Absolutely. Richard, as you sit here this morning, you are

the president of the Council on Foreign Relations. But the next time we see you, you'll be the president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations. Congratulations on an extraordinary 20 year run at the top of CFR. Thank you, sir. When you reflect on it, what do you think this morning? You've got two days left of the job. Besides cleaning up my office, I got more books than I know what to do with. Like, I feel really good. This is an organization that stayed true to itself. In a polarized country, to be nonpartisan in a country or a society of tweets,

they still turn out books and serious stuff. I feel good about it. We published the leading magazine in the world about the world, Foreign Affairs. But I also feel good. The biggest change we made over the last 20 years is rather than just being an elite establishment organization, we have now become the leading educational institution in America, teaching Americans in high schools, middle schools. We teamed up with iCivics in colleges and universities about the world. We call it global literacy. And I feel better about that than anything, that we've taken on an extra mission to, at a time the world matters for better and for worse so fundamentally,

to basically take on this larger teaching mission. And we're looking at photographs while you're speaking of the most important leaders in the world over the last 20 years, all who come to New York and sit down with Richard Haass and want to talk with you. And to Richard's point, even in his next chapter, his bestselling book, Bill of Obligations, now it's going to become such an important piece of civics in our schools, going to team with PBS, do videos. Richard's going to get out and speak and continue his work domestically. No. And Richard, one of the things that impresses me about your next chapter is that you're going into schools and giving a more global view to

young Americans of all backgrounds, that the world is not just what they see in their immediate neighborhood. And I think you've done that in your in your leadership of the council. How important was it to you for you to really give a global view to those corporate as well as other leaders that had a very narrow view in many ways before you kept pounding in the American psyche that, you know, the world is a lot bigger than your neighborhood? Yeah, my mantra became the world isn't Las Vegas. What happens there doesn't stay there. We learned that the hard way with COVID. We learned the hard way on 9-11. You mentioned corporate leaders. The big difference now in the corporate world is, besides looking at all their Steve Ratner charts, now corporate leaders understand with supply

chains, with COVID, with the U.S.-China relationship, they've got to redo all their models. Essentially, to run a Fortune 500 firm now, it's not just a narrow traditional balance sheet. They are in no way insulated from what happens globally. And they've also become players. Think about it. If you were going to have a conference now about what to do about the next pandemic, or what to do about AI, or what to do about climate change, you would have to have corporate leaders sitting at the table. So this model where states are the only pieces on the chessboard, that's over. I keep telling corporate leaders they need a foreign policy. They have got to become players. And we have to find ways of bringing them into the conversation. No way we can think about how, if we want to structure or regulate the emergence of AI, accentuate the good, push back against the bad.

How are you going to do that without people from Google and the rest? We've almost got to rethink our whole notion of diplomacy. We had the Secretary of State at the Council yesterday. Tony Blinken was there. He and I had a conversation. That's, if you will, and he's obviously Secretary of State. The United States continue to have a major role. But we've got to expand.

Got to rethink the chessboard. Got to get different pieces on the board, different issues, different pieces. Congratulations on 20 years. We've been so lucky to have you in our family for almost the entirety of this show. And you're not going anywhere. I'm sure we'll see you next Monday. But can't wait to see your next chapter. Before we let you go, do you have more time now to go watch Yankee games like Domingo Herman throwing a perfect game last night in Oakland?

See, I was thinking about that. Perfection. I mean, you can bowl a 300. You can pitch your perfect game. Unless you're the leader of North Korea, you can't have a perfect day on the golf course. He's the only one I know who basically gets 18. He gets 18 holes in one.

The whole idea of perfection is so... 24 times in history? Yeah, that's it. I haven't done the math. Have you done how many games have been played in Major League Baseball? Tens, hundreds of thousands? Yeah, hundreds of thousands. 24 moments of perfection?

How cool is that? I know. Four, by the way. I don't see the Lemirs and Barnacles and Scarboroughs here this morning. I'm just pointing it out. Lemire's here. He gave grudging. Oh, really?

Quotets to. I mean, I'm just saying. After a few. How many perfect games for the Red Sox? I haven't done them. I just enjoy the moment. Why make it ugly? Why make it never going to happen?

Richard. Great to see you. Well, Richard, congratulations. I'm thinking you can focus more on being the golf correspondent for Morning Joe because I know that means a lot to you. And you need to brush up on it, got to say. So now you can focus. I'll work on it, Mika. I've got a goal for the summer to lower my handicap, and I'll report on how well I do.

Just so you know. I know you're sitting at the edge of your seat.