Morning Joe - Morning Joe 7/28/22

Episode Date: July 28, 2022

Manchin strikes major deal with Schumer on climate, taxes and health care

That's right. Biden is covid free. He even gave a quick speech from the White House Rose Garden. And it sounds like he's back to his old self. Take a listen. Millions of Americans have used Paxlovid. Paxlovid. Excuse me. Paxlovid. I tell you what, I think it's I used it. Welcome back, Mr. President. Welcome back. welcome back mr president welcome back a little bit of covid fog there good morning and welcome to morning joe it is thursday july 28th a lot to get to on another busy morning the federal reserve has made its new move to tame inflation on the same day senator joe manchin surprised much of washington announcing he has reached a spending deal with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer that would revive major parts of the Biden agenda.

The Fed chairman is now echoing the president, insisting the United States is not in a recession. We'll get a better sense of whether that's true when the GDP report is released later this morning. Plus, major developments on the diplomatic front. President Biden expected to hold a phone call with Chinese President Xi this morning and the State Department offering a deal to Russia to get WNBA star Brittany Griner and another American, Paul Whelan, released from jail in Moscow. But at what price? We'll tell you with us. We've got the host of Way Too Early and White House bureau chief at Politico and the author of The Big Lie, Jonathan Lemire, MSNBC contributor Mike Barnicle, U.S. special correspondent for BBC News, Katty Kaye, and the former chairman of the Republican

National Committee, Michael Steele. Good morning to you all. Let's dive right in. After nearly a year and a half of on and off negotiations, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia has reached a deal with party leaders to pass a number of Democratic agenda items through the reconciliation process. In a statement yesterday, Manchin wrote in part, this bill will cut the inflation taxes Americans are paying, lower the cost of health insurance and prescription drugs, and ensure our country invests in the energy security and climate change solutions we need to remain a global superpower through innovation rather than elimination. He went on, it is time to put away the partisan swords and advance legislation that is in the best interest of the

future of this nation and the American people we all represent, not just one party. Let's bring in co-founder of Punchbowl News, Jake Sherman. He's been all over this story, also an MSNBC political contributor. So, Jake, I said at the top of the show this surprised much of Washington. Were you surprised that this deal came to be between Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer? Joe Manchin had made furious Democrats across Washington in the Congress by rejecting much of what he approved yesterday. How did this happen? I, you know, I was shocked. I was sitting on in my in my desk in the Capitol and I got this email and I was like, what is this? The Manchin and Schumer kept this incredibly close to the vest

for which they deserve a lot of credit, a tremendous amount of credit. But Joe Manchin told us last week he was staying at the table. He was negotiating and we didn't believe him because he says that all the time. And usually the deals fall apart. But, Willie, this is huge. This is giving the opportunity to the Biden administration and to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senate Democrats the opportunity to enact much of their agenda, climate change provisions, tax provisions, everything that they've been talking about for two years. And by the way, Schumer got a lot of flack for being too timid, and as did Manchin for that matter. And it's just a massive, massive temporary victory for Democrats to even get a deal

with Manchin on this. By the way, Manchin's in COVID quarantine. We talked to him this morning or yesterday, rather, for this morning's edition about what kind of came together, how this came together. And he said that Schumer came back to him and said, let's just do a deal. Let's let's scrub this thing, get rid of everything that you don't like and let's put this through. So now this begins, Willie, a mad rush, to be honest with you, through August to get this through the House, through the Senate and to the president's desk. And Republicans are going to say it's a tax increase during a soft economy. But and there is truth to that. It does increase taxes. It gets rid of the carried interest loophole that hedge funds and private equity folks have relied on for many years.

It institutes a corporate minimum tax. But Democrats feel like on the other end, it raises revenue. It enacts a huge swath of their priorities. So they're quite happy this morning. Yeah, I mean, it raises taxes. But as you said, it's a 15 percent corporate tax, a minimum corporate tax. And this has, you know, lowering prescription drug costs. A lot of the wish list that the Biden administration has had for some time and progressives have had for many, many years. The question is, though, in a 50 50 Senate, if they're going to pass it through reconciliation, they need every one of those 50 votes plus Kamala Harris to break the tie. That opens the question to Kyrsten Sinema, who notably was not a part of these negotiations. Do you suspect she's going to go along with this? Big question. Real big question, Willie. I mean, Joe Manchin made the case to us that

the tax hikes are so narrow on corporations that do not pay a 15% minimum tax, that have a $15 billion book value, which is, in his telling, is very few companies and basically companies that are not paying their fair share. It doesn't increase marginal rates. It doesn't increase rates on individuals or pass-throughs. It is simply this corporate tax hike. So he feels confident that she should come along because a bunch of her priorities are in here. This is going to be the big question. There's a 9 a.m. Democratic caucus meeting this morning in which this will be discussed. Sinema is usually want to she really keeps her cards close to the vest until she has something to say.

But my guess here today, Willie, is yes, she will get on board. I don't think she wants to be as one Democrat put it to me yesterday, the skunk at the garden party. But we'll have to see. It also faces long odds in the House, Willie. I mean, Pelosi has Speaker Nancy Pelosi has a four seat cushion to get this through. And it's going to be difficult. But if I'm sitting here today and I'm a gambling man, I would imagine they get this through sometime in August. And it'd be an extraordinary achievement for this administration if they do get it through. Also fascinating, Jake, as you've been reporting this morning because of what else happened in Washington yesterday. The Senate yesterday also passed a sweeping package to boost U.S. computer chip production to stay competitive with China. Eighty billion dollars over the next decade. Seventeen Republicans, excuse me, joined

all Democratic voting members to get the Chips Act over the finish line. Now, this passes first. So they get that through the Senate. Seventeen Republicans on board, Jake. And then all of a sudden they spring this announcement from Joe Manchin that, oh, by the way, we're also passing this massive package through reconciliation to which Senate Republicans said, wait a minute, we didn't know about that. So now reports have it, and I think you do as well, that Senate Republicans who voted for the chips plus bill are whipping House Republicans to vote against it out of spite for the reconciliation package. Do I have that right? Yeah, that's right. I mean, Willie, it's actually even worse than that. The only reason Republicans agreed to pass this CHIPS package is because reconciliation was theoretically off the table or this kind of reconciliation was off the table. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell got worked here. And so did John Cornyn, who was the lead sponsor of reconciliation was off the table. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell

got worked here. And so did John Cornyn, who was the lead sponsor of the chips bill. So quite frankly, it's a it's a black eye for them. I don't think they're going to be able to stop this chips bill from passing. And even if they do stop it from passing, it's kind of self-defeating. Republicans understand this needs to get through and they would just be punishing, you know, chip manufacturers and national security if they killed it in the House. But progressives are lining up behind this in the House because of that reconciliation process. And Democrats are confident they're going to be able to get it through today. Jake Sherman, such an interesting day on Washington. More ahead. Thanks for being

up early with us this morning. We appreciate it. Michael Steele, let's talk about both pieces of legislation, but particularly about the Republican reaction to this reconciliation bill, which is to say, as Jake said, we're not going to whip against something that we think is good for the country that keeps us competitive with China, this chips bill that helps get technology production here at home and all the things we use, cars, phones and everything else, because we're upset about the way, as Jake Sherman put it, we got worked by Democrats. Yeah, I mean, you know, it's amazing. You mean Democrats actually played a little politics to get their legislative priorities done? Hercules, Hercules. It's just it's amazing. They can do it. They can do it. No, it is. It is. I mean, McConnell right now is steaming because he got outflanked on this. I think Jake has it exactly

right down the middle. What you're going to see in the House is there's going to be a lot of jawboning about it, trying to save a little bit of political face. But in the end, the Republican Party going into the fall elections do not want to be the party that hamstrings the chip production capacity of the United States, not only in terms of what that means in a competitive marketplace, but what it means for our national security. You know, these national security Republicans suddenly standing in the way, in the doorway. So it was a very smart, as Jake put it, very quiet maneuver that have now positioned the Democrats to have a major, a major piece of their legislative agenda passed by the end of summer as a stand up order going into the fall for every Democrat running in November. And, you know, it's a it's a good day. So Republicans now have to figure out, Willie, what's the counterprogramming here?

How do we how do we, you know, garner a little faith, faith saving? And I don't really see it because Republicans in the House, again, are going to saddle up on this bill. You may lose some the real hard edges who are in districts that are very safe for them to do that and can basically go back and lie to their people about what this is and what it isn't. But at the end of the day, I think this is going to be a win across the board. Yeah. And Republicans now being asked to vote against the bill they previously said they supported and a bill that if it failed would help China. That's a difficult vote to take. Indeed. Mike Barnicle, though, let's talk about the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue. We know that this is not a done deal yet. We still have to see Senator Sinema. There's still a tight margin in the House. But were this to happen, it is a much smaller package than Democrats talked about last year, but it is still substantial. It ticks through a lot of their priorities on climate change and energy with prescription drugs. And it

is a significant triumph for the Biden administration. Aides last night that I was texting with after news broke were quiet and optimistic. They don't want to get ahead of it, but certainly feeling good that if this gets done, not only does this give Democrats an important accomplishment to run on this November, but it certainly bolsters what Joe Biden can say he did over his first two years as president. Well, that's the interesting point, I think, to a lot of people, Jonathan. If this does pass, if these bills do pass and become law, he has had a substantial first two years of his term. And just despite the substance, we in the media will say, oh, you know, but look how old he is. And Democrats don't like him and they want someone else to run instead of him. But he's had a substantial, substantial two years if these pass.

The other aspect of it is, if you're home this morning getting ready to go to work and you're watching and listening to what has been going on here on our program for the last 10 minutes or so, you're wondering, what is going on in Washington? They pass a chips bill. It's good for national security. It means we are less reliant on foreign products like chips coming from China. It means that automobiles that are sitting on, you know, waiting to be shipped out finally have the chip to put in to make them run appropriately and all that, all the stuff. And yet it passes. The Republicans get mad because they make an announcement later in the day that Joe Manchin and Chuck Schumer have cut a deal on another bill that's going to reduce prescription costs, that's going to require carried interest to be finally taxed the way it ought to be taxed for rich people. And the Republicans then say, well, no, we're going to try and defeat the CHIPS bill in the House, we're going to try and defeat the chips bill in

the House because we're angry. You've got to be thinking, what is going on with government, that they can't do something that's good for America because they're angry about the politics of it? It's a crazy, crazy city, Washington, D.C., crazy. It's a crazy city, but it might today be minimally effective, at least, Mike. I mean, one of the things that Democrats seem to have learned is that keep things quiet. Right. We had so much open negotiation over the Build Back Better Act and it didn't get anywhere. All of the Democrats disagreements were played out in public in ways that were not beneficial to the party. This was a deal that was cut behind doors

that they managed to keep quiet until the very last minute. And by tying it at the same time with the CHIPS Act, you're right, they're not giving Republicans much leverage to counter them because the CHIPS Act is something that Republican voters would think is a no-brainer for Republicans to vote in favor. So that and the fact they've called it the Inflation Reduction Act, which is a heck of a lot better at the moment. Anything called the Inflation

Reduction Act right now is probably a good thing with the American public. So it feels like Democrats have, you know, savvied up on the art of politics and how to get things done in Washington since the kind of disastrous rollout of the Build Back Better Act that didn't go anywhere. Yeah, and as Jake pointed out, Republicans already are talking about this bill as not anti-inflation, but as perhaps contributing to the problem with the spending and taxes within it. But as Katty said, for the moment, we'll take minimally effective in Washington. Let's talk about inflation. Let's talk about the economy. The Federal Reserve followed through on another interest rate hike yesterday

as it tries to fight inflation running at 40-year highs. NBC News correspondent Tom Costello has details. The Federal Reserve doesn't like to surprise, and it delivered just what it promised. A unanimous decision by the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates by 75 basis points. A big move, three-quarters of a point, the most aggressive series of rate hikes since the early 90s, as the Fed tries to catch up with runaway inflation. The goal, to bring inflation down from 9% now to roughly 2%. The price hikes continue eating into both family and small business budgets. In Las Vegas, Jill Schlesinger opened a gluten and sugar-free bakery,

but exploding ingredient prices are threatening her business. I walk the line every month. I literally have so much credit card debt from starting the business because I couldn't get any loans. No banks would even look at me. That rate hike means those credit card interest rates will likely climb higher along with bank and new car loans. With mortgage rates nearly doubling in the past year, pending home sales have dropped 8.6 percent in a month, 20 percent in one year. In Michigan, Infinity Homes builds for first-time buyers, many of whom now have sticker shock. It's been a noticeable slowdown with traffic into our sales offices, but rates doubling. It was basically traffic's pretty much been cut in half.

We're going to be focused on getting inflation back down. Fed Chairman Powell said that while consumer spending and production are slowing, unemployment remains near 50-year lows. That suggests the U.S. is not currently in a recession. 2.7 million people hired in the first half of the year. It doesn't make sense that the economy would be in recession with this kind of thing happening. NBC's Tom Costello reporting there. Let's bring in CNBC's senior markets correspondent, Dom Chu. Dom, good morning. So we just heard from the Fed chair there. He doesn't believe this economy is in a recession. We may get a technical answer to that question in just a few

hours here, 8.30 this morning. We'll get that GDP report. Two quarters of negative growth by some measures would put us into a recession. Yesterday, as expected, the Federal Reserve raising the rate three quarters of a point. Put it all together. What does it mean? So this is the hard part about this, Willie. And Tom laid out kind of the the, I guess, confusion about what's happening right now. There are so many indicators out there, as he points out, that do not point to recession at all, namely the jobs market. You do not see a jobs market like we are seeing right now in times of economic distress. The reason why that particular data point is clouded over and glossed over a little bit more is because by far the biggest narrative, the biggest storyline right now in the U.S. and even global economy is inflation. And that inflation is making people feel as though things are so much worse,

because even though their wages are still going higher and higher, by the way, by a pretty good clip versus what we've seen over the last several years, inflation is running even higher than that. So everyone feels like they're falling behind. So you get that feel of an economic recession. Now, Willie, you also pointed out the, quote unquote, technical definition of a recession. Here's where things get confusing again. And it's kind of academic and a little bit kind of, months and quarters after the fact that it already happened. What some experts on Wall Street and analysts and economists have tried to do is look back at times when a, quote unquote, technical recession has happened, as declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and look for common themes and trends. One of the things that they found is that during those times of technical recession,

there has been two consecutive quarters of slowing GDP growth. Now, we got the first quarter numbers that showed a 1.5% decline in the U.S. economy. Right now, the expectation for the numbers coming out later on this morning is that we will show a marginal increase, about one third of one percent gain in the U.S. economy as measured by GDP. So we may narrowly skirt this kind of feel of a recession. But the idea here is as many Americans and businesses feel as though this is an environment where they're falling behind. And that's the reason why it's so important for folks to kind of understand what's going on. Tom, can I get back to the markets and what the Fed is doing?

The implication, it seemed to me from Jay Powell yesterday, was that things are softening a little bit on the spending side. They are seeing some impact of the previous hike on inflation. And it actually sounded perhaps a little bit more optimistic than some people had thought in terms of what the Fed might do next. Meanwhile, I'm watching Europe at the moment. You've got an energy crisis this week that is going through the roof. Energy prices up something like 10 percent just because Russia is turning the taps off on energy supplies. What are the risks that whatever the Fed is doing now, we head into the fall and into the winter, and what's happening in Europe still that is looking really bad starts trickling over into the U.S. economy and derails the Fed's best laid plans. So the Fed's best laid plans, to your point, Cady, are driven by data right now.

I mean, the Fed has been very clear about this for months, quarters and years at this point, certainly under Jay Powell's tenure as Federal Reserve chair. The reason why he made those comments about waiting to see whether or not the data would support further, bigger interest rate hikes down the line is because he also said in that press conference that the Fed at some point may need to take a little bit of a pause and slow down the pace of these aggressive rate hikes to see what the quote unquote cumulative policy has done for these rates. The world economy is even more so interconnected today than it was 5, 10, 20, 30 years ago. So a lot of the stuff that's happening here and abroad affects everybody else out there. Oftentimes, when you have these inflationary scenarios, eventually what it does lead to is an economic downturn because people just cannot simply afford higher prices, especially for things that they consume on a daily basis like food and fuel. If that's the case, people start to buy less.

When companies and CEOs start to feel as though the economy may slip further into recession, they become more conservative with their business decisions, with their capital spending plans, with their hiring plans. All of these things act in concert with each other. And all of those things start to slow the economy down, not just on a U.S. basis, but on a global basis as well. So if the Fed starts to see some of these economic cracks really starting to get exacerbated, then they may have to slow down those pace of interest rates hikes because they will have, in essence, seen some efforts for inflation to be tamped down actually work. And if that does happen, they may not need to be so aggressive. So this is the tight line right now that the Fed has to walk.

They have to figure out whether or not they can slow things down without affecting everything so pervasively that the U.S. and global economy slips further into a downturn. We will get that GD report in just about two hours. CNBC's Dom Chiu explaining it all so well, as always. Dom, thanks so much. Still ahead on Morning Joe, a significant development in the fight to bring WNBA star Brittany Griner home from Russia. What we're learning about a potential prisoner swap to secure her release, along with

another American who's been detained there since 2018. Plus, Ukraine stepping up its counterattacks in an effort to retake one Russian occupied city. Admiral James Stavridis joins us next to weigh in on all things Russia and President Biden's upcoming call with the president of China. Also had an update on President Biden's health, what he's saying about his recovery from coronavirus compared to what his predecessor went through. You're watching Morning Joe. We'll be right back. Secretary Lincoln says the United States has made a substantial offer to Russia to bring Brittany Griner and another American jailed in Russia back home. NBC News Chief Washington correspondent Andrea Mitchell has the details.

With Brittany Griner caged in a Russian court testifying for the first time in her own defense, the Secretary of State going public about a deal to bring her and another American, Paul Whelan, home, calling it a top priority. We put a substantial proposal on the table weeks ago to facilitate their release. That proposal trading Victor Boot, an arms dealer known as the Merchant of Death, serving a 25-year sentence in the U.S. for the Americans. Two sources familiar tell NBC News. What is the prospect of getting Paul Whelan and Brittany Griner out by making such a big trade, arguably over the opposition of the Justice Department? I can't and won't get into any of the details of what we've proposed to the Russians over the course of so many weeks now. The president is prepared to make tough decisions if it means the safe return of Americans. Greiner in court holding pictures of her wife and teammates, explaining

she didn't know the cannabis prescribed back home for medical use was in her luggage, facing questions from Russian prosecutors and the Russian judge. I was in a rush packing. Like I said, I was recovering from COVID, stress packing, making sure I had my COVID tests, jet lag, and I was in a rush throwing my stuff into my bag. The WNBA star telling the judge when she arrived in Russia five months ago, she was held for hours without a lawyer, interrogated in Russian, using her phone to try to Google translate. She says made to sign documents without knowing what she was signing. No, my rights were never read to me. No one explained any of it to me. Greiner has pleaded guilty to the charges against her and faces up to 10 years

in prison. Her legal team hoping her testimony will help her get a more lenient sentence. Andrea Mitchell reporting there. Joining us now, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, retired four-star Navy Admiral James Tavridis. He also is Chief International Security and Diplomacy Analyst for NBC News and MSNBC. Admiral, good morning. It's good to see you. So these are obviously never easy decisions. There's no equivalence, of course, between Brittany Griner having some trace marijuana in her bag and an arms dealer who's been in jail already in the United States for seven years. But as you and I have talked about on this show, if you want to bring her

and Paul Whelan home, it may come at that price. Indeed. And, you know, there's obvious wonderful upside here getting Brittany Griner and Paul Whelan and hopefully constructing other similar deals. I think there are over 40 Americans who are unlawfully, illegally, immorally detained overseas. So this puts momentum under that idea. That's a good thing. The bad news, Willie, is this guy, Victor Boot, is bad news. If you're not familiar with him and his background, you can Google him, B-O-U-T. He is not only an arms dealer, he has American blood on his hands. When I was commander of U.S. Southern Command, he was captured in 2008. And we were celebrating because he was the one supplying weapons to the FARC, the terrorists in Colombia, killing Americans. And so, as Tony Blinken said,

these are never easy decisions. The president has to weigh this. But I think he is doing everything he can to bring these Americans home, understandably. Admiral, we certainly hope, all of us, that this deal is consummated, despite the vile Russian in federal prison here. I'd like to talk to you about months that this war has been going on? I was a bit surprised at the beginning of this thing, Mike. But as it's gone on, the Russians have simply shown very little appetite or inclination to improve. And that is true not only in the failing logistics efforts, but also they continue these manifest war crimes. Their battle plans are ridiculously bad as a general proposition.

Now, however, they have concentrated their forces in the southeast. That makes them more formidable. It makes their logistics easier. The challenges remain. Bottom line, we need to keep doing what we're doing, which is providing the tools to the Ukrainians. These new HIMARS surface-to-surface missiles are striking, Mike, at those logistic log heads behind forward lines. That's a very good thing. We need to give them more anti-ship cruise missiles. Final thought here, we need to be putting jets in the hands of the Ukrainians. A lot of serious discussion about training them to fly American aircraft, including the F-16, not that complicated a jet. It could make a big difference in, as the Ukrainians say, closing their skies.

Yeah, as the Admiral said, there's still a lot of discussion about what the U.S. and allies are supplying the Ukrainians. Let's get a quick update on what's actually happening on the ground. Local officials say that Ukrainian forces have hit a key strategic bridge in the Russian-occupied southern city of Kherson. Officials say Ukraine has used multiple rocket launchers supplied by the U.S. to strike the bridge, which was being used as a supply route by Russian forces. The strike comes as Ukraine has launched a major counteroffensive to retake Kherson, which fell to the Russians during the early days of the war. The damage to the bridge will make it harder for the Russian military to keep supplying its forces in the region. So that's a positive sign for the Ukrainians.

Meanwhile, Russian forces, they've taken over Ukraine's second largest power plant in the eastern Donetsk region. An advisor to President Zelensky confirmed the capture yesterday, but said it was only, quote, a tiny tactical advantage for Moscow. Seizing the plant is the first strategic gain by the Russians in eastern Ukraine in more than three weeks, as they have been trying to control the entire Donbass region. Admiral, when you look at where we are in the war now, and it's been a messy few weeks, with some gains by the Ukrainians, some gains by the Russians, as we just laid out there. What's your assessment of where things are?

Well, the course of war does not run smoothly. It's the most unpredictable of human activities. At this moment, I would say look to the sea, look to what's happening in the Black Sea, the potential for unlocking grain shipments out of Odessa, very positive development. On the other hand, Russia striking with caliber cruise missiles, that vital port like striking Los Angeles, Long Beach in the United States. So, Katty, it's a mixed bag, clearly. But two things, I think, are very positive. One is the continuing effort for offensive operations around that town you just mentioned, Kherson. It controls the approaches, the water supply to the Crimea. It opens a front, if you will, behind Russian ability to go after the Odessa region.

And that's the second positive point. Russia just does not seem to be able to mount the kind of sweeping attacks that we were worried about four and five months ago. Their progress is going to be incremental at best. Long term, I would not want the hand of cards that Vladimir Putin holds. Time is not on his side as continuing aid pours into the hands of the Ukrainians. Admiral, let's shift focus a little bit and talk about China. A very important phone call in a couple of hours. President Biden speaking to his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. A phone call the two men have not spoken in months.

It comes at a time with renewed U.S. concern about what China may be doing to Taiwan. It comes at a time of great economic rivalry between the two countries. And it comes at a time when the U.S. is frustrated that Beijing has not condemned Russia's war effort, has even been a soft partner in keeping the Russian economy afloat. How would you set the agenda for the president of the United States today? What are the stakes? The stakes are enormous. And I'll add another shrimp on the barbecue of what you just mentioned, the potential trip of Speaker Pelosi to China. Very worrisome in the sense that it'll be inflammatory in China. It's occurring in the run up to the 20th Party Congress. President Xi can't afford to look weak in the face of that. That is another potential

point of real concern. The phone call, frankly, couldn't come at a better time, Jonathan, in the sense that tensions are ratcheting up. You identified correctly Ukraine will be high on the agenda. Another one will be, should the sides de-escalate in economics, reduce tariffs here that could reduce inflationary pressure? And then third, I think a very potentially good topic where there can be some bridging is on climate, where both sides obviously have a need to make improvements globally. So there are some goods and some others on this agenda. I'll add one final one. As a former military officer, I hope and I suspect both sides will be talking about de-escalating, if you will, nose to nose, ship to ship, air to air

confrontations, notably in the South China Sea and around Taiwan. How do we de-escalate, create some real standoff between our forces? Because those have been ratcheting up a bit as well. Overall, I'm hopeful you'll get a good readout from this phone call and it will do something to de-escalate the tensions that have been rising recently. Admiral, you mentioned Speaker Pelosi's potential trip to Taiwan, getting a lot of attention. Of course, Republicans cheering her, saying, yes, go to Taiwan. Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state, saying, I'll go with you, Speaker Pelosi. You said that could be an inflammatory trip. What would that mean as a practical question?

Let's say Speaker Pelosi goes, she lands in Taiwan. How does China respond? China could respond in a number of ways, none of which would be helpful. Notably, they could put aircraft up, put a record number of military aircraft into the Taiwan Strait. That number has been going up as the year has been going on. They could put ships in and around Taiwan. They could use cyber to generate a massive cyber attack. How about taking down the air traffic control system around Taipei while the speaker's plane is trying to land? I can think of a number of other things I don't even want to mention. So let's hope we don't see a reaction from China. Let's hope that the speaker considers very carefully whether this is an advisable trip or not. You know, bottom line, we, the United States, can't allow China to dictate who from our government,

who from our nation goes to Taiwan. I've gone to Taiwan. I've met with Madam Tsai, the leader of Taiwan, but I'm not the speaker of the House at a moment of high tension. So we have to be sensible on our side. Let's hope the Chinese will be sensible on their side as well. We will see what Speaker Pelosi decides. She's been tight lipped so far about those plans. Retired four-star Navy Admiral James DeVritas covering an awful lot of ground for us this morning. Admiral, thanks so much. Coming up next, former President Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence once again on opposite sides in a Republican primary for governor, this time in Wisconsin. We will dig into that race and what it means for the Republican Party

and the future of Donald Trump. Plus, the Department of Justice goes after the Trump attorney who pushed an illegal plan to overturn the election. A judge is giving federal investigators access now to a key piece of evidence. Morning Joe's coming right back. The Republican National Committee reportedly is telling former President Trump it will stop paying for his legal bills if he announces a bid for reelection. Since October of 2021, the RNC has been paying close to $2 million for Trump's legal representation as he faces personal lawsuits and government investigations. But an RNC official tells ABC News those payments would stop if Trump announces a presidential run, citing the organization's neutrality policy, barring it from taking sides in a presidential primary. Both the RNC and representatives for Trump declined ABC's request for comment. Meanwhile, Wisconsin's gubernatorial race is shaping up to be another

face-off between Trump and former Vice President Mike Pence. Pence announced he is endorsing former Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Clayfish just one day after Trump said he would hold a rally for his preferred candidate, businessman Tim Michaels. The Republican primary will be held on August 9th. Just last week, you'll remember both Pence and Trump were in Arizona stumping for competing candidates. So this development continues. This is a fascinating dynamic, Michael Steele, between President Trump and his former vice president, who clearly they've broken far, far apart since January 6th. How do you see this playing out? Donald Trump obviously is going to endorse the candidate who pledges fealty to him.

Mike Pence says he's behind the actually conservative candidates. It's different in every state, I know. But what does this dynamic look like? Well, I think it represents an interesting shift in the way the party is trying to now sort of regain its footing in these primaries, you know, it actually speaks to a certain competitive nature. The vice president's endorsing this candidate over here. Trump is endorsing the one over there. Now, you know, let the best candidate win, I guess. But it also says how much Pence is willing to press from inside the party to make his case for the brand of Republicanism that he wants to move into 2024 with. He thinks the old brand of looking backwards is not going to work in a competitive market in 24 politically. And so he's trying to gain that

ground, if you will, to sort of get an upper hand. So it'll be interesting to see how it plays out. This is less about whose candidate wins and more about the fact that Pence is actually challenging in the first instance and actually making a press for his brand of republicanism you know it the rnc piece that you led into i don't know why the hell why rnc is still paying trump's legal bills um is that what you're doing with donor money and and so again this is something that is going to be interesting to watch how these elements that have tied trump and the party together, largely because Trump wants to exact a price from the party for whatever he brings to the table, which is not much in terms of electoral success. We lost the House. We lost the Senate. We lost the White House. But it does say how now

leaders inside the party are beginning to try to find a track or lane they can get on to press a different argument. Now, the beneficiary of this could be someone like DeSantis, and it could also open up a lane for Republicans like Larry Hogan to at least begin to make a case. We'll see. Yeah, I mean, on the donations to the RNC point, it is extraordinary, is it not, that the big, rich, self-proclaimed billionaire is letting the small donors continue to pay his legal bills while he takes their money. It's amazing. Still ahead this morning, President Biden's economic agenda could be back on track now after a surprise deal between Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Joe Manchin. We will talk

to White House Communications Director Kate Bedingfield about what that means for the administration, the party and the country as we head into the midterms. Plus, one of our next guests has conducted dozens of focus groups with Trump voters in the wake of the January 6 attack on the Capitol. We will lay out those findings and what they could mean for a potential run by Trump in 2024. Morning Joe's coming right back. Fall now, Mets ace Max Scherzer on his 38th birthday was dealing against the New York Yankees in the Subway Series. He pitched seven scoreless innings, struck out six Yankee batters, including Aaron Judge, went down swinging three times,

totally fooled by Scherzer last night. But with David Peterson on the mound in relief for the Mets in the eighth, Glaber Torres hit a two-run home run to tie the game. They just had to get past Scherzer. But the Mets would not let this one go into extras. Runners on the corners and the bottom of the ninth, Starling Marte, singling home the winning run. The Mets completing a little two-game sweep of the crosstown Yankees with a 3-2 victory. And Jonathan Lemire, I've already received your letters, your cards, your prayers, and your flowers because the New York Yankees no longer have the best record in baseball by one game in the loss column is now the Los Angeles Dodgers I'm going to take some personal time for reflection and grieving thank you the heart does break Willie the heart does

break uh yeah the Yankees have hit the skids a little bit here but they're still oh I don't know 33 games over 500 11 and a half games up on the Blue Jays. But the Houston Astros are the real concern I'd have for you, Willie, who have had the Yankees number a bit in recent years and are creeping up on the best record in baseball. But, Mike Barnicle, let's talk about the New York Mets and Max Scherzer. We actually, just in the last commercial break, dashed off a list of players currently playing who are bound for Cooperstown. David Ortiz, of course, inducted last weekend.

Max Scherzer right there at the top, along with characters like Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, Bryce Harper, Clayton Kershaw, and the like. But he's really special and still doing it at 38. 38 years of age, well worth every penny of the millions, the multiple millions that the Mets threw him as a free agent. Well worth it. It's an amazing story.

He and Justin Verlander, I think Verlander's 39, have an incredible use. Last night, in that game last night, Aaron Judge really alluded to the fact that Scherzer struck him out three times. Seth Lugo struck him out at a critical point. So four Ks last night for Aaron Judge. It can happen to anyone. It didn't happen to Aaron Judge. I was feeling very badly for you, Willie.

I was drying the tears in my eyes thinking of you up there. Thank you. Thank you so much. I appreciate all of it. Now, there is help on the way. The Yankees traded guys for a former Red Sox player named Andrew Benintendi, who actually was an all-star last week, an all-star with the Kansas City Royals.

He's hitting.320 this year. A left-handed bat goes into the lineup. Tell me from a Red Sox fan's perspective, how much do we like this guy? Andrew Benintendi is a Major League Baseball player, a very good Major League Baseball player. He had one off year, and the Red Sox, Chaim Bloom, great young guy, head of baseball operations for the Red Sox, pulled off an amazing deal, traded Andrew Benintendi to the Kansas City Royals for Franchi Cordero, who has struck out 23 of the last 30 at-bats he's had this summer.

Not a great deal. Benintendi is a very good player. He'll be a terrific replacement for Joey Gallo, who will probably hit the road from the Yankees. Solid player. And on the same day the Yankees acquired Benatendi, Franchi Cordero committed three errors for the Red Sox last night and cost them the game. But, Willie, one word of warning, at least as of a few days ago,

Andrew Benatendi not vaccinated, therefore not able to play in Canada. And those games against the Blue Jays loom large later in the season. That's true. And maybe a playoff series, which wouldn't be great either. So I can see I can see Katty Kay literally rolling her eyes as we talk about the Benintendi deal. So that's my cue. I did not. I didn't. I'm just so glad Mike and Jonathan are here. Thank you, Katty. We're going to change the subject immediately, Katty. Thank you, Katie. We're going to change the subject immediately, Katie. Thank you. Still ahead, a look at new polling on the state of civility in American politics. There's near universal concern over the level of polarization across the country, as you can imagine. And battleground voters are poised to support candidates who are willing to compromise.

We'll explain that. Plus, the Democratic nominee in the race to become Maryland's next governor, Wes Moore, will be our guest. Morning Joe's coming right back.