Morning Joe - Morning Joe 7/8/24

Episode Date: July 8, 2024

Four more congressional Democrats call on Biden to quit presidential race

You know, I've been doing this a long time, and I, honest to God, have never been more optimistic about America's future if we stick together. I really mean it. Here's what else I've learned, and many of you have learned. You walk your faith as well. We're all imperfect beings. We don't know where or what fate will deliver us to or when. What we do know is that we can seek a life of light, hope, love and truth no matter what. We can seek that life. Take all of our experiences and give everything we have to work together.

Because when we do, you can't stop us. I mean this sincerely. President Biden speaking at a church in Philadelphia over the weekend as he faces a critical week for the future of his campaign. Calls for him to bow out of the race continue from some Democratic members of Congress, as well as members of the donor class. This comes as the president is set to lead the NATO summit this week in Washington. And Donald Trump is lying low for the most part. He's disappeared with the. Where is he?

He's just he's not around. Why are they hiding him? Are they afraid that he may go out and talk about World War Two coming or Barack Obama being president? Will he go? Definitely convinced. Why are they afraid? Like, why are they afraid to let him talk here? They're going out there. I was going, oh, Joe Biden. What are they hiding? What are they?

What are they scared of having? And Donald Trump, he's burrowed down in Moralago. They won't let him out. He's a prisoner in a gilded cage because they're afraid he may actually open his mouth. And of course, the irony, the chances of lying are high. Well, you know what they found was as badly as Joe Biden did. We've all said he did horrifically. You look at the polls and even the New York Times, the Annapole, which is all has always been an outlier against Biden, shows that even with that terrible performance, he picked up independent voters against Donald Trump.

Right. So what are they doing with Donald Trump? They're keeping him out of sight until the Republican convention. Maybe who knows? Maybe his handlers, maybe his bosses will let him out this week. But right now there's there's a no, no, man, you have to stay right there. You can't talk. People hate you. Like, independents hate you. Swing voters hate you. Like, just be quiet and you may win this thing again.

It's kind of crazy. Yeah. Well, you know, this is it's been a crazy week in many ways. With us, we have NBC News National Affairs Analyst John Heilman. He's a partner and chief political columnist at Puck. Managing editor at The Bulwark, Sam Stein, and U.S. national editor at The Financial Times, Ed Luce, is with us. There's so much to talk about here. I want to talk about American politics. I mean, what happened in France yesterday?

Whoa. What a political earthquake here. Once again, the media, it's just like the red wave talk. There's going to be a red wave. There's going to be a red wave. There's going to be a red wave. There's going to be a red wave. Voters say, no, there's not. A couple of years ago, Ed, I'm sorry, I'm going to just go to France for a second. Are you talking to France? Just really quickly. It is a huge story. Really quickly.

A couple of weeks ago, what did we hear? We heard Le Pen, Le Pen, Le Pen. Oh, the far right's going to win the far right. It is the end of France. This is the same exact nonsense we heard two years ago in the presidential race when it was too close to call and President Le Pen was coming. Macron had approval ratings in the mid-30s and ended up winning 58 to 42 percent.

The same thing happened yesterday. Is Macron in a great place? No, he's not. But who's in a worse place right now? Le Pen. Far from getting majority, they finished in third place. What happened? Well, the French electorate had a whole week in this two round voting system to figure out tactical voting. And they did figure it out. They Macron's candidates dropped out where they came third.

The left candidates dropped out where they came third. They all agreed on one candidate to fight the far right, the Pence party. And it worked. People, voters understand that system. And I think it is quite a good system because, you know, you have round one where people express their outrage or, you know, their preference. Round two, they have to think and they have to they have to face reality. What kind of government do we actually want? And the answer from three quarters of French voters is not a neo-fascist government. Yeah, no, neo-fascism not in this week in France. And likewise, across the channel, just an absolute historic drubbing of the Tories, the Conservative Party there. John Hyman, you know, after Joe Biden's debate, I said he needed to consider getting out.

But I said also for a guy who's been in politics for 50 years, who's been in public service for over 50 years, we need to give him time. We need to give him some time. Oh, there is for a man who's given more than 50 years of his life to public service. It is more than fair to take a breath and see what happens over the next few days well those few days have turned into about a week a week and a half and here we are and i find it absolutely fascinating we're going to get to the bloomberg polls that came out this past weekend and i've already talked about this in a poll that shows donald trump losing Donald Trump losing independence, I mean, after Joe Biden's debate performance. But Joe Biden now has what I would dream of having if I were running for president of the United States in his position. I've got Washington insiders against me. Well, let's put it the way it is. Joe Biden now can say he's having to fight media elites.

New York Times editorial page, billionaire donors. They've been on the phone for a week and a half. Washington politicians, even though Mark Warner has now canceled his meeting. Black Caucus, by the way, not really happy with all of these people trying to substitute their elitist viewpoints for that of millions of Democratic primary voters. Hollywood moguls. Hey there, Ari and Miss Disney. And of course, MAGA extremists. So so Biden allies. Now, this is what they're going to say. Oh, wait a second. So you're telling me that media elites and billionaire donors and Washington politicians and Washington moguls, they all think that they can substitute their judgment for the judgment of millions of Democratic primary voters. John Heilman, it may happen. And this isn't about what ought to be. This is about what is. And, you know, Joe Biden has a fired up, angry Democratic base in parts. And he's got a lot of elites putting him in a position where he can look strong, staring them down. So where are we this Monday morning as we go into one of the more pivotal weeks in American politics?

Well, I think, Joe, that the idea that the way that you framed it, which is the way the Biden campaign is trying to frame it also, which is that, you know, Joe Biden is being defiant in the face of out of touch elites across the spectrum who are trying to force him out of the race. And that's a good fight to have. I think that there is one, if we move away from the rhetorical framing of it and into the more substantive reality of it, is that one of those categories of elites is our elected officials and elected officials who are represented, who represent a whole bunch of voters and who are paying attention to the to what voters are saying. We don't know yet what members of the House who come

back to Washington, what they all heard over the time they've been home on their recess, which is the entire period, essentially from the debate all through last week. And I imagine that all these House members have a pretty good fingertip feel for what's going on in their at home, what they're hearing from their voters. And I think they're not they are to the extent that some of them would like Biden to step down. And as you know, yesterday, there's there were more calls on this this this call that Hakeem Jeffries did yesterday. There were four ranking members of Democratic committees on the House side who came out and said that Biden should in that on that call, at least they wanted Biden to step aside. A couple more who said they had pretty profound concerns about it.

I think those people are unlike in reality. I mean, unlike you can say about billionaire donors that they are billionaire donors and they obviously would like to win. I'd like to see their money that they're putting into behind Joe Biden. They'd like to see that be for a candidate that they could win. But I do think that Biden's biggest challenge right now is not even the donor class. It certainly isn't the media, which we can talk about all day about what the media's role in all this is. But I do think that their biggest challenge is his party on Capitol Hill, which Joe Biden clearly cares about. He is essentially playing chicken with members of Congress. And they are in a staring match right now. A lot of people on the Hill

would like Biden to step aside. They do not want to come out publicly and say that. Biden is essentially saying, if you want me out, you're going to have to come out and say it. And if I had to say what I thought the ultimate dynamic here is going to be is, does there come a day in the course of the next week where the following four people, Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Jim Clyburn, Hakeem Jeffries, either alone or together, either literally or figuratively, go to Joe Biden and say, you've lost the party and we don't see a path forward. We think it'd be best if you stepped aside. If that conversation happens, I think it'd be hard for Joe Biden to go forward. If it doesn't happen, it's a whole different kettle of fish. Yeah, I think it's very unlikely that that's, I just think it's unlikely

that's going to happen. I think it's unlikely that's going to happen. I think it's unlikely it's going to happen because you talk again to members of the Democratic base. You talk to members of the Congressional Black Caucus. You talk to a lot of core Democratic voters. You even look for anecdotal evidence. A lot of angry Democrats out there who are asking why these people are trying to substitute their judgment for Joe Biden's or for the millions of voters who voted for Joe Biden. So, you know, it's it could happen. It could happen. But I suspect that these House members and I started to suspect this a couple of days ago, Mika, that these House members were probably hearing back in their home districts. What what what I heard when I was vacationing with my kids. They were screaming in the church in Philadelphia. Or what they were yelling at the church in Philadelphia.

But when I was with my kids and the window was rolled down and had a couple different people go, hey, Joe, leave Biden alone. Yeah. And that was that was like in the day or two after the debate. And it's anecdotal. Everything's anecdotal. But I've had enough calls from elites over the last couple of weeks who want him out and enough calls from members of the sort of Democratic rank and file. They don't they're not ready for him to get out. And they're wondering they're wondering why the elites are splitting the party. And I think part of it is they don't have confidence that Kamala Harris is going to do any better than Joe Biden in Wisconsin and Michigan and in Pennsylvania. We're going to hear more from Ryan Nobles in just a moment.

His latest reporting on what's going on with this on Capitol Hill. Most polls still show a competitive race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Even after last month's debate, the latest survey from Bloomberg News and Morning Consult finds every battleground state within the margin of error. Aside from Pennsylvania, according to the poll, Trump narrowly leads among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, and is ahead by a larger margin in the Keystone State. Biden, meanwhile, holds small leads in Michigan and Wisconsin. Separate polling from CBS News and YouGov show the race essentially tied among likely voters nationwide, the same as it was in May.

Polling from The New York Times and Siena College shows Trump leading by a wider gap among both registered and likely voters nationwide. That was right after the debate. But that poll did show independents moving toward Biden. So Sam Stein, Mika will tell you, I do this show and then I just, you know, I just dig a hole and go into it

and sleep for, you know, for about 20 hours and then come back and do the show. I do not, as you know, you've known me a long time. I do not work the phones. I just don't. I do not. I'm not like, hey, what's happening? What are you hearing on your. I just don't do that. I got four kids and I got four hours and I read in for the most part. And nobody knows nothing anyway. And nobody knows nothing anyway. I had been on the phone nonstop for two weeks. And it is so interesting that after the debate, everybody was in meltdown mode,

including the campaign, talking about how they had heard that, you know, the most powerful Democrats who all believed after the debate they were going to see Biden down by 10 points. They all believed the small dollar donors were going to dry up. They all believed it was a matter of days. Sam Donaldson got on ABC News right after Monica, after that news came out that's, you know, at the front of the National Front carrying that flag. But we heard it was over then. I must say on that phone all day yesterday, I was hearing just the opposite. I was hearing the opposite from campaign, from Democratic donors and especially from members of the Congressional Black Caucus. They're like, what? The polls are the same. We're with Joe. Why are these people picking on him? I'm just reporting. I'm sure you've heard the same thing. They were actually the Biden campaign went from a week ago saying it's all over to yesterday going, oh, my God, we feel energized, especially with Fetterman

and Casey and everybody going around with him. He said it was one of his best days on the campaign trail in 2020 or 2024. I'm glad to hear you're working the phones again. We need you out there. I, too, was also working the phones. I talked to, and to your point, I talked to a member of Congress yesterday about what the reaction was in his home district. And he said it was about an 80 to 20 split. 80 percent of his correspondence with voters were Democrats saying Biden needs to stick it out. People are being too rude, too mean. They're trying to push him out. 20 percent of respondents were about panicked about Biden's position, worried about the election. The split was even more interesting because of who he was talking to. Predominantly, African-American

voters were the ones who wanted Biden to stick with it. And more middle upper class white voters were the ones who tended to be more panicky. I think that gets at the place we're in right now, where you see the base of the party, the bedrock constituencies, the CBC members saying Biden should stick around. They're offering the support to him. They're coming out vocally saying he needs to stay. You even saw Representative Clyburn, who obviously matters tremendously in this whole process, put out a supportive statement the other day, too. There are obviously major pockets of discontent and fear within the party. You saw about nine members total now have said they want Biden to drop the race. Look, I don't think that's a great position necessarily for the party. It's fine for Biden.

But when 20 percent of your party is skittish, that's not great. But it is survivable if Biden chooses and wants to survive it. I think the main distinctions that we should talk about with respect to the prior situation is the Bill Clinton, the Access Hollywood moments, is that the question surrounding Biden is not whether this was a momentary lapse of judgment. It's whether he has the abilities, the mental acuity to forge the campaign forward. And he has to go out there and prove it like he did yesterday, not just yesterday, but every single day. And I think the press scrutiny has been tremendous, potentially, arguably almost unfair. But that's what happens when you have a debate like he did. And that's just going to be the case for every day forward. And can he sustain it? Can

he get rid of those concerns? That will be the true test for Biden. I do think, though, and while the reaction to the debate was fair, I just think it also outshouted and overshadowed all the lies President Trump told during that debate. Every time he opened his mouth, he said during a serious presidential debate. If we're going to take this debate so seriously and cover it 24 seven, it's probably important to take a look at what he said and also what he refused to say, because some would say that would make him unfit for office and call for some editorial boards to consider a massive editorial piece calling for him to step down. But that didn't happen. Instead, they asked for Joe Biden to step down. And I'll just say one more thing. Everyone was watching the Stephanopoulos interview and obviously the debate performance. Joe Biden, it's not like this is the first time he flubs his words. This is a man doing it for about 54 years. No. How old is he? He is a stutter. On top of that, he flubs his words. He mangles his words. He is not an expert in elocution and Ivy League phraseology and never will be. Yeah. But now everyone's looking at it like it's new.

That's another thing. Except he has age related issues. He had a horrible day. He had just an absolutely dismal debate. It was horrifying to watch him up there on stage. It was horrifying. And so that's sort of the five alarm fire that the media went to. I think a week later, you know, that now that

the New York Times has a syntax blog that is following his syntax and radio interviews in Wisconsin, it's gotten ridiculous and over the top when you actually have a guy sitting down in Morilago again that's told lie after lie after lie after lie after lie. And again, let me repeat it. As badly as Joe Biden did in that poll in that debate, you had the New York Times Siena poll showing even bad news for Biden losing Democrats and some Republicans, but independents breaking to Joe Biden because they were so sickened by Donald Trump's lies. And so that is something to remember. And yeah, the reporting has gotten crazy over time because once again, and I love this about the press, like mainstream media, they're like, oh, no, they're they're saying we're unfair and they're saying that we have hidden this.

Who hid it? Who hid it? Who? You know, for all of these right wing stooges that are saying all the mainstream media hid this. You know, like I said, I've probably spent more time with Joe Biden than most reporters talk to him about in-depth foreign policy, talked to him about the guy. The guy was completely there. If he weren't, I would have been the first to come on the show the next day and say, president's not there. He can't he can't complete his duty. I saw him up close. Was he slow or yes? Was was he stiff? Yeah, he was stiff. Was he still able to talk about his plan for Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel and and bringing Hamas that war to an end? Yeah. Was he still able to talk about what he for a guy who promises to be an autocrat. They freaked the media out. And the question is, I know a lot of people in the media.

And yeah, yeah, they're liberal, they've always been liberal center left, they've always been liberal but I don't know one of them that wouldn't have broken this story if they had good reporting and win a Pulitzer Prize I just have to say go back to the Wall Street Journal again

and I will say it again, I'm a big fan of the direction the paper's been going in. I'm a big fan of the direction the paper's been going in. I'm a big fan of the new editor. But on that story about Biden's mental acuity, if they had it nailed, they wouldn't have had to lead with my Kevin, who contradicted his own previous public statements and private statements. Think about that. If there was this media conspiracy, then why didn't the Wall Street Journal that wanted to

break the story? Why could they only go to my Kevin, a guy whose own words publicly and privately to his staff undermined that entire narrative. The answer is because nobody had the story nailed down. So now the media is freaking out. They're saying that we're liberal. We are liberal. That doesn't mean you have to do like syntax blogs. Well, in the third sentence of the fourth paragraph.

Yeah. Try to do that with Donald Trump. Hell, in the third sentence of the fourth paragraph. Yeah, try to do that with Donald Trump. Hell, just print a Donald Trump speech in its totality on the back page. It will keep the kids entertained by wings. In fact, New York Times, you got Wordle. You got the other thing that's more complicated. I can't figure out those numbers. Let's do Trumple. Like just just print on the back page of The New York Times a full Trump speech. And the person who can best arrange the words to make complete thoughts, they're the winners of Trumple for the day. I like that Trumple. That's good. So so we're not talking at loose about what ought to be.

That is not our job here, except when it is. But this morning with Joe Biden's future in the balance and the Democratic Party's future in the balance and America's future in the balance, we're talking about what is. Now, I know that you have come out saying he needed to step down. I know I said the day after the debate, he needed to consider stepping down. I said, let's give him some time. Let's see what would happen. But other people, Tom Friedman, who very much respects Joe Biden, Richard Haass, Nick Kristof, some very thoughtful people have said the same thing that you've said, which is he should step down. Here we are about 10 days later. It seems the base is rallying around him. What do you think? I'm going to ask you, what do you think ought to happen?

And then what do you think will happen? Well, Joe, I'm very mindful of this talk of the base versus the elites. And, you know, I hate to identify myself with the elites, particularly since, you know, I've been foreign elites. And as you can probably see from the driving English rain behind me, I'm sitting across the Atlantic. So I'm going to I'm not going to repeat in my view that Biden ought to step down. I think it's worth looking at the immovable object and the unstoppable force here. And I think the immovable object is President Joe Biden. We came very clear, you know, in that Stephanopoulos interview, he's not going to step down. And the unstoppable force is, you know, people like, as we saw yesterday on the morning

shows, Senator Chris Murphy, soon to be Senator Adam Schiff, and more and more Democratic voices, I guess, from the elites, but the elected elites, you know, are getting more and more worried about Trump, Biden's ability to sustain a campaign. So something has to give, because these two factors continuing another 10 days from now is going to be extremely damaging. I don't know how it's going to end up. I mean, it is conceivable that come the second debate on September 10th, Biden will still be the nominee and he will perform well and he will have a good night. That's quite conceivable. I do think, though, this is more than just his lifelong stutter. I think that he sometimes forgets, as we saw in these recent

interviews, he sometimes forgets the point he's making. He does stare quite vacantly. He's often inaudible. And I don't know how he fixes that. There could be bad moments, but there's got to be fewer of them. And there's got to be a lot more vigorous moments. The final point I'd make is that if God Almighty is the only person who could remove him from being the nominee, I think there is another, and that is the donor base. I think if the money does start to dry up, that will concentrate minds. I don't know whether that will happen, though. And I hope this situation doesn't persist for too long either way. Right. I do agree with that. All right. We're going to take a 90 second break.

Ryan Nobles on the other side with the latest from Capitol Hill. We'll be right back. All right. Welcome back. Live look at the White House. Just about half past the hour. Let's bring in NBC News Capitol Hill correspondent Ryan Nobles. Ryan, what's the very latest? Well, Mika and Joe, I think there's no doubt that this is going to be a crucial week for the president with both the House and the Senate returning to Capitol Hill after more than two weeks over the Fourth of July holiday. And, of course, we've spent a lot of time talking to many of these Democrats in both the House and the Senate to get their pulse of what comes next from Joe Biden. And what I think you really see playing out here is that there are very few congressional Democrats, as evidenced by the fact that only about six or seven of them have come forward publicly stating that they want Joe Biden to get out of the race. But there's a lot more that are saying it privately. They don't want to get into a position where they publicly have to get into a confrontation with Joe Biden. And what I was most struck by in my conversations

with Democrats after the interview on Friday night with George Stephanopoulos was that the president seemed dug in. And that frustrated a lot of these House Democrats in particular because they don't want to get into a standoff with Joe Biden. And if it gets to the point where they have to come out publicly, if Chuck Schumer, if Hakeem Jeffries, if other congressional leaders have to come out to the cameras and publicly tell Joe Biden that it's time to step down, then the race might already be lost because then that puts them into a position where if Joe Biden doesn't step down, that will be used against him as the campaign moves forward. It's going to be used as an attack by Republicans. And the Democratic Party is going to be in a very difficult situation. So what you see playing out

here, and I had many Democrats say this to me over and over again, is this family conversation. There's a family conversation obviously happening within the Biden family itself. But there's also a family conversation that's taking place in both the House Democratic Caucus and in the Senate Democratic Caucus, where each one of these members is getting a sense of just how urgent they think the situation is. Is it desperate enough where there needs to be this kind of meeting at the White House with these congressional leaders where they plead with Joe Biden to step down? Do they continue this this campaign where they subtly try and convince him to do the right thing,

as many of them have said, and step out on his own accord? Or do they just take a step back and retreat and allow this to play itself out? This is the answer to that question. I don't think really is going to be determined until they all get into rooms this week and have this out behind closed doors and really begin to talk about what they think is the best path forward. I think it's very important to read between the lines about this outreach that the president himself has had to many of these congressional Democrats, particularly in leadership and with Hakeem Jeffries, with Chuck Schumer,

with Jim Clyburn and others. You know, the president said in that interview on Friday night that they told him to stay in, that many of them told him to stay in. And I don't know if that's completely accurate. I don't think that any of them have specifically told him to get out. But there seems to be this chasm between what they actually want to have happen and what they're willing to actually say to him to get to that point. And we're not to that point yet where these congressional leaders are prepared to look him in the eye and tell him that they don't think he can win. And that in order to save democracy and beat Donald Trump, that he needs to step aside.

So those are the conversations that we're going to see play out here over the next couple of days. I do think it's complicated to a certain extent because the NATO summit is in town. That's going to mean that not only is there less time to have these conversations, but there's also going to be a sense that they don't want to challenge the president or undermine him when the rest of the world is here and the eyes of the world are paying attention to him and everything that's happening. But I do think that this is a critical juncture in the future of the Biden campaign and the way that Democrats on Capitol Hill respond to it is going to play out in a big way over the next couple of days. Mika and Joe. Hey, Ryan, Sam Stein here. My family

conversations are slightly less existential. I don't know if anyone else is. Question for you. What leverage do, and honestly, what leverage do congressional Democrats have here? I mean, what do they have here? If Joe Biden told them, pound sand, I'm going to stay around, then what? That's what I keep coming back to is, what actual leverage does Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer ever? I mean, they could pull at his heartstrings. They can make compelling arguments. But this isn't, you know, Nixon where they can say, hey, you're going to get impeached. What is the leverage? Yeah, they don't have any.

I think that's you're exactly right. And I think that's the problem that they find themselves in, is that at least most of the Democrats that I've talked to believe that it would be better if the president were to step down. But they also are really concerned about dragging this fight out into the public and getting into a standoff with the president. And in many ways in that interview on Friday night, that's what he was daring them to do. He was basically saying to them, if you think I need to step down, you need to come and tell me that to my face, and then we'll have a conversation afterwards. And so I think the leverage point is, do they feel that there's enough critical mass within the caucus, the frontline members, some of these very vulnerable senators in places like Montana and Ohio, do they plead with their

leadership? Do they plead with Chuck Schumer, who the president has a very good relationship with, someone who he respects? Do they plead with Hakeem Jeffries and others to go to the White House to look him in the eye and say, you need to do this for the country, you need to do this for the Democratic Party? It may not get to that point. There may not be enough Democrats that are willing to push their leadership to do that. And leadership may be unwilling to do it as well. And if it gets to that point, I think you're going to see Joe Biden be able to withstand this storm. But I do think there is an unbelievable amount of anxiety among rake and file Democrats. I did have one Democrat say to me after that interview on Friday that they were heartbroken over the way that this process has played itself out and that they were worried about Joe Biden's future and his legacy. And they wish

that he would just see the light and pass the baton, because there are many that just feel that this could get worse before it gets better. All right. NBC News Capitol correspondent Ryan Nobles, greatly appreciate your great reporting. You know, this does remind me so much of what we heard after Access Hollywood. It reminds me so much of what we heard about Bill Clinton in 98. They were not going to survive. Why didn't they just step aside? Because the president are in Donald Trump's case. He had the nomination. He wasn't going to give it up. John Heilman, if you're president, again, just for people that are watching at home, we have a very, very intelligent audience.

And I mean, I've seen the numbers. It's it's really it's really humbling. A number of postgrad degrees and the number of people that watch that are so much smarter than me. It's a very low bar. But there are some people that may see clips of this on the Twitter and they don't are the X. And and and it's it's hard for them when they're in their mother's basement eating Cheetos and typing their blogs, Danny's thoughts or whatever they are. It's hard for them to hold to two sort of competing thoughts in mind. So when I say this stuff, I'm not saying about what should be. Today, we're talking about what is. And this is the reality.

And Joe Biden said much of this. Joe Biden is president of the United States. Joe Biden is head of his party. Joe Biden is the nominee for the Democratic Party, or he's going to be presidential race. Joe Biden won every single Democratic primary this year. Joe Biden has over 90 percent of the delegates to the Democratic Convention. Joe Biden's been doing this for 54 years. I say this not being demeaning to House members, for I was one and I loved it. I loved serving the House and was very honored by it. But they're one of 435. Why is Joe Biden going to listen to a couple of House members or Mark Warner? I just I don't see that happening. Do you?

Well, I don't think he is going to. There's no question he's not going to listen to a couple of House members. I don't even think, as I said before, I don't even think he's going to listen to the rank. Certainly, he's not going to listen to background quotes, which we all have, from terrified, panicked, scared House and Senate members. I think there's an overwhelming number of Democratic Democrats in the Senate caucus, Democratic Senate caucus, who think the Biden step aside consistent with what Ryan said. And I think that he's not going to listen to Mark Warner. I said before, I think that, and to go to Sam's point, I think that there is a kind of suasion. And again, we can stipulate that this is a hypothetical. We don't know whether this will or won't happen. But I think that this does come down to not individual House members on background, even on television. I think it comes down to for Joe Biden, if I still believe that Joe Biden cares about the party enough and cares about the success,

winning this election enough that if that if that if the leadership of the party, Chuck Schumer, Hakeem Jeffries, Nancy Pelosi, Jim Clyburn, in combination or individually, went to Biden and said, we love you, we respect you, we think you've been a great president, we are looking at the numbers, we're looking at what's happening in our competitive districts and our competitive in the Senate states that are in play, and we are going to lose. We could not just lose the presidency. We don't think we think we've you know, as best we can tell. We don't think you have a path to beat Donald Trump or at least the likelihood of it is very low. John, the only problem with that is John and John. John, they all told him, John, they all told him he was going to

lose in 2020. They told him after Iowa he was going to lose. Hold on. They told him after he finished fifth place in New Hampshire, you're going to lose. He was called a loser. He was mocked by the entire Democratic establishment. I'm not done. Only because this explains why he's dug in. The Obama people constantly mocked and ridiculed him. David Axelrod has been mocking and ridiculing Joe Biden. And I know David loved David, but he has been mocking and ridiculing Joe Biden with every breath he takes, every move he makes. And he has for years now. The pod guys that we had on our show constantly going after Joe Biden.

But Obama people have gone after Biden. Party elites have never cared for Biden. He's heard this his entire life. So why is he going to listen to Jerry Nadler now? I said a second ago, Joe, I think that Joe Biden, I don't know what Joe Biden is or isn't going to do. I'm not going to predict what's going on in his mind. I would. All I'm saying is that I think there are the only scenario in which Joe Biden will leave, will decide to step aside. I think he respects, I don't think you just get to disagree with me. I think he respects the four people I mentioned. I think he respects Nancy Pelosi, respects Chuck Schumer, obviously reveres the Senate as an institution, cares about the future of the party. And I think of those, that

those four people who are the preeminent leaders in reality of the Democratic Party on the Hill and the ones that Joe Biden respects the most. I think he would take seriously those people if they came to him face to face and told him that they had reached that conclusion. I think he would take it seriously. I don't know what he would decide. I just think that you asked me, would he listen to Jerry Nadler? No. Would he listen to House members individually, collectively, on background? You know, I even even from battleground imperiled swing state Democrats in the House know I think that he has enough respect for the leadership of the Senate and the House, having been a member of that leadership once himself, that he would take those people seriously if they approach him.

That's the only way. And I think the leverage that they would have is not leverage as they can force him, but they could appeal to him in a way that he would take seriously because he actually does respect them and trust their judgment. Totally got it. Totally got it. I will say yesterday, as the old saying goes, two of the most important Democratic senators to Joe Biden voted with their feet yesterday. And that is Senator Fetterman, who has been an intense, strong supporter for Joe Biden. And also Senator Casey,

who's in the political fight for his life. And they they they shadowed him yesterday. They stayed with him yesterday. So we're going to talk about this a lot more. I'm going to go back also in a minute to Ed Luce, who is sitting in the English countryside with a driving rain behind him. I really want to talk about the historic loss that the conservatives were pelted with, worse than a driving rain. But first, we have some weather story here. We do want to get to the weather news here. Hurricane Beryl made landfall along the central Texas coastline as a Category 1 storm earlier this morning. Let's go right to meteorologist Angie Lastman for the very latest. Angie, what do you got? Good morning, guys. You know, we basically saw this system run out of real estate. Otherwise, we would have been talking about a much stronger system making landfall for the third time. It's been 13 days since it came off the

coast of Africa. You can see conditions already deteriorating in Houston. We're going to see things get much worse, especially as we get closer to the late morning hours. But here's what we've got right now. Category one still maintaining its category one strength for this system. 80 mile per hour winds and moving north at 12 miles per hour. Let's talk about some of the things we've already seen, which is really intense winds. Hurricane force winds in some spots. Right now, winds gusting about 62 miles per hour in Houston. We've got 75 mile per hour winds happening in Galveston.

So hurricane force in some spots. Much quieter in the locations where it did come on shore. 30 to 40 mile per hour winds in places like Matagorda. And we've got a tornado watch in effect. When we see this circulation coming on shore, it's not hard for us to see some of these tiny spin-ups with these isolated tornadoes. So we're going to be watching that through at least late morning. On top of that, we've seen winds up to 90 miles per hour in places like Freeport. Offshore, we've seen waves over 20 feet. So really impressive stuff happening from this system.

And one of our main concerns going forward is going to be the flooding rains, especially in those really vulnerable locations like Houston. We've seen it time and time again. It doesn't take much for us to see some of this really concerning flooding. And when we have more than 5, 10, even close to 15 inches of rain on deck, this is going to be something that we watch through the day today. Notice the system will weaken, but it does still bring plenty of rain to folks even north of Texas, Arkansas, stretching up into parts of the Midwest. This will be something that we watch through the day today. And by the way, storm surge has been pretty impressive as well.

We've seen upwards of four feet or close to it in places like Matagorda Bay, just near the mouth of that bay, guys. Things are going to start to improve here, but we've got to get through at least the morning and early afternoon hours before we see that for folks along the Texas coast. Angie Lastman, thank you very much. Keep us posted and coming up right here on Morning Joe amid questions over his reelection campaign. President Biden is set to host a high stakes NATO summit this week. We'll talk about what to expect as world leaders head to Washington. Plus, our next guest joins us with the history of modern era political grifting that he says hijacked American conservatism and starts

with the role model for Donald Trump. Morning, Joe. We'll be right back. You are now connected to Air Force One. Okay, thank you. Mr. Prime Minister, congratulations. What a hell of a victory. Congratulations. Thank you, Mr. President. It's been a long night and day.

There's no doubt in your leadership. Our two countries are going to continue our special relationship. We're working together on just about every issue. Supporting Ukraine, managing the competition with China, advancing cooperation in the Pacific with AUKUS. Firstly, the special relationship is obviously the bedrock always has been for our defense, for our security and prosperity, which obviously is central to our missions for government. It was it's very moving. And in the part where he talked about, you know, that he loved Winston's. Stop it. 10 Downing Street. That was Alex's joke. Video of the newly appointed prime minister of the United Kingdom, Keir Starmer, speaking with President Biden after his landslide win.

Let's go back. Wow, Europe. Let's go back to a quaint English country house with driving rain behind it. Of course. And, you know, as we go into the week, a lot of people will say, hey, you know, what we're looking at is probably a split. We're going to probably see liberals doing well in Britain and right, far right wing fascists doing well in France ends up. Well, the center held in both and and the center left did extraordinarily well. It has to be one of the worst weeks for sort of nationalist conservatism in Europe in a very long time.

Yeah, it does. I mean, I think what you were saying earlier, though, about pants on fire, everybody sort of headless chicken a few weeks ago about the direction of voters. I think you are right that and our profession, you know, played a big role in that. There are a lot of centre right, centre left voters, a majority, in fact, in all countries of Europe, except perhaps in Hungary and on some votes in Austria. Most of most of our democracies are a majority centrist, either tilting left or right. And they've become more sophisticated. And Britain exhibited this last Thursday. France did yesterday. They've become more sophisticated about banding together to make sure that the really unhygienic political forces on the far right, those who target immigrants, those who claim that there are true French or true British and then fake ones, non-white ones, usually,

they're getting more effective about keeping those people out, putting what the French call a cordon sanitaire around them. And I think this is this is very impressive. I mean, what I hope is that Democrats will draw some lessons from this, because I don't think there's any force in the Democratic world quite as toxic as Donald Trump. And you probably noticed yesterday that there were a lot of Republicans and supporters of Trump saying that the French elections involved cheating. Not even Marine Le Pen said that. So they don't just assume. They're really an American.

All right. Not. Yeah. Yeah. Not only are they losers, they're bad losers. They've lost in 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23. They lost in Britain. They lost in France. They lost in Poland.

And they're still doing the whole, oh, they cheated. We lost. They're like five-year-old kids who are just not good at the game. I do want to, I do want to, like, this is very important and we need to push back on something that has been a media narrative now for quite some time, and that is that the populist right has taken over Europe. When you look at what happened in Britain, when you look at what happened in France yesterday, when you look at what happened in Poland earlier this year, or what's at the end of last year, shocking result in that the most part, running Poland, which has really strong populist sort of the strong populist undertow.

We really are seeing, as you say, in Europe, the center holding. We're seeing we're seeing the center holding. The crisis, of course, is not over. And, you know, Macron, I think, still has reasons to regret calling that snap election. He had a majority and now he doesn't. So we are going to get a period of chaos, probably, or at least uncertainty in France. Could have been way worse. But we are still going to get a period of uncertainty in France, which might help the right for the next French presidential election in 2027. It might. In Britain, it's kind of the opposite problem. There's not going to be chaos. Labour has a massive majority. It's got two thirds of the seats in Parliament. And that, of course, will embolden the left, the rest of left,

the old Jeremy Corbyn left on the on the back benches to rebel because rebelling will come at no cost. So Keir Starmer is a very, you know, it he's a very phlegmatic personality. He's not going to have any of the adolescent traits we saw with Boris Johnson and Liz Truss and others who've been wreaking such havoc on Britain's future. But he has got his task cut out for him. This is not an easy job. Britain is not in a good place.