Morning Joe - Morning Joe 8/19/24

Episode Date: August 19, 2024

The Democratic National Convention is set to kick off Monday in Chicago

They'll say, he was rambling. I don't ramble. I'm a really smart guy, you know, really smart. I don't ramble. But the other day, anytime I hit too hard, they say, he was rambling. Rambling? You know, I get up and I make a speech. I go for sometimes two hours, two and a half hours, because, you know, people are waiting outside for three days, four days. You guys were waiting out there for a long time. Front row Joes are waiting out. I don't know how you guys do it. And I feel I have an obligation to speak and speak in a certain way and speak a little bit longer. You know, how would you like it? A guy's waiting with his family for three and a half, four days. They have a tent and the tent is set up. They have hundreds

of them and they wait. And then I walk in, speak for 15 minutes and leave. I don't know. Somehow, would that be OK, North Carolina? I don't think so. They want me to speak all day. It's Donald Trump saying how he doesn't ramble at his rally. Well, I mean, I guess if you want to say you ramble, that's up to you. Anyway, it's Donald Trump in Pennsylvania. Good morning and welcome. Good morning, Joe. It's Monday, August the 19th. With us, we have the host for way too early, White House Bureau Chief at Politico,

Jonathan O'Meara, member of the New York Times editorial board, more a gay managing editor of the Bulwark, Sam Stein and U.S. editor for the Financial Times. At least you can ask any of one of these people. Do I ramble? Do I talk too much? Do I interrupt? Do I ask questions that go on longer than the answers? Do I do that? Of course not. I just the way I look at it, people wake up at one o'clock in the morning. Right. And they they get their children around and they're like, you know, giving them the, you know, biscuits and, you know, and so, yeah, of course, sometimes I talk a little more. Sometimes I talk a little bit more than I should talk sometimes, right? But give the people what they want or maybe what they don't want. Never. I have no idea what you're talking about, Joe.

No, no idea whatsoever. Sam Stein, you'll be more blunt and direct, right? Who rambles around here? Certainly not me. Joe, have you ever served in Congress? Because I've never heard that one before. Well, there was a time I don't like to talk about it. I don't like to talk about it. Just like Jonathan Lear, I don't like talking about the Boston Red Sox when they get 11 hits. Baltimore gets three hits. And my statistician, little Jack Scarborough, tells me it's the first time in history that they've gotten 11 hits or more, given up three hits or less, and lost a game going back to 1901. Yeah, that is a good, if very depressing statistic. Yeah, they just look, you can't be too upset with splitting four games in Baltimore,

the Orioles first place team. But there's Red Sox team that needs to do more than that right now. Right. They are still two and a half out of the wild card. You know, they've had an up and down couple of weeks here playing kind of 500 balls since the All-Star break. Yeah, we don't need to see any of this. Oh, we definitely don't need to see any of this. We could see the Yankees lose on a walk-off hit last night in the Little League Classic. We could show that. That'd be fine.

But, yeah, the Red Sox are going to need to start stringing together some wins if they're going to really get in this race. Ad-Lose Premier League football started yesterday. That's very exciting. I think you and your family supported a team about 12 divisions down. So I'm not sure how excited you were about that. But I'm more interested in Pennsylvania. We're going to be showing some new polls that have come out that show an incredible shift in this campaign.

But you say Pennsylvania may be slipping away from Donald Trump. Yeah, I spent a few days there last week. By the way, my daughter supports Man United. The less said about that, the better. Liverpool are a better team to support. I spent a few days around Allentown, Northampton County, the Bellwether, Lehigh Valley last week. And what really struck me was not just the energy that Harris-Walls is seeing and the relative, the Biden Harris campaign since March has been taking

out Spanish language ads and really doing Hispanic outreach to what is the fastest growing demographic, 600,000 Spanish speaking, well, Hispanic adults in Pennsylvania. But that Trump is just simply not touching that demographic. There are Republicans saying, look, this is an English speaking country. Why would we cut ads in Spanish? And that to me is a real sign. If you're not targeting the fastest growing demographic, then you're not serious about winning. And so I did come away with a very distinct impression that it's Pennsylvania is slipping from Trump's grasp. Well, that's an interesting point to make, because after I saw some close polls in Florida,

I called some friends down there. I said, is this real? What's going on? I'd seen a FAU poll that had Harris within three of Trump also saw some good numbers coming out of Miami-Dade. And what I heard was that actually, unlike Joe Biden or Donald Trump, Kamala Harris has been very aggressive talking to Hispanic leaders. She stayed in touch while she's been vice president. And she will do the sort of things that you're saying Donald Trump is not doing. So it's fascinating. We'll see how that Hispanic vote goes, because Joe Biden always did well with with black voters, did not do as well with Hispanic voters. There was really concerns within his campaign, even in 2020 about that. It seems Kamala Harris is doing much better right now in that slice of America.

Jonathan O'Meara, tell us about the DNC. What a week lined up for anybody, Republican, independent, Democrat, remotely interested in politics, an all-star lineup this week. It really is. It kicks off in Chicago just a few hours from now. I'll note that I'll be out there starting tomorrow for the rest of the week for Morning Joe and way too early. Tonight's about President Biden. He's delivering the keynote address this evening and a symbolic passing of the torch. And certainly this is not the convention that the president would have anticipated even just a month back. He thought he'd be speaking

on Thursday, not Monday. He thought he'd be the one accepting the nomination to represent his party again this November. Instead, he'll be an opening act, handing off, if you will, to the vice president. Certainly he and the other speakers tonight, which include the first lady and Secretary of State Clinton, will talk about Biden's accomplishments over these first four years. But then there will be a transition as well. He'll make the case that the vice president is the person to pick up the torch going forward. He also will levy a series of attacks on President Trump. I am told aides previewing a little bit of his address. And Mara,

I mean, this will be the start of what will be four, I think, celebratory days inside that arena. A month ago, there was a sense of almost dread heading into the Democratic convention that no one can say that President Biden couldn't have won. But certainly the odds were then against him after his tough debate performance. And now we have a completely remade race. Vice President Harris, trends are with her. It's a close race. She has momentum. And this week could be a real opportunity to introduce herself to the American people

in a new way. Well, that's right. The reality is that despite all the momentum that we've seen, and it's very real, the American people don't really know that much about the vice president. And so this is an opportunity for her to introduce herself on her own terms. There are risks with that as well. It's a different venue than what we've seen at these rallies she and Tim Walz have been performing very well at. This is a little bit different. We might hear a little bit more about policy as well.

And listen, this is also an opportunity for Democrats who we learned when Joe Biden, after that debate, that disastrous debate performance, we really learned just how deep the Democratic bench is. And this is an opportunity as well for the party to say, hey, America, we understand you. We look like you. We're diverse. We're a big, America, we understand you. We look like you. We're diverse.

We're a big tent. And we understand your concerns. We are the ones who have the platform to carry this country into the future. They have a lot of popular policies, including reproductive freedom. She's going to talk as well, the vice president, about ways to address inflation, which is, you know, economic concerns are going to be on voters' mind always, and especially this November. So this is an opportunity. It comes with risks as well, especially as we see the uncommitted movement not shut out of this convention, but not exactly embraced with welcome arms either. There's going to be protests undoubtedly outside the convention hall. Yeah, I would just add, beyond the policy elements, what I've been struck by is the sort of narrative that Harris and Walz have crafted here, which is that this is

sort of generational contrast and about the future versus the past, which if anyone who has worked in presidential politics will tell you is a very effective contrast. But their main theme has been not just joy, but we're not going back. And the convention kind of, in a way, and I'm sure it's deliberate, lines up to push that narrative, right? I mean, you have Biden and Hillary Clinton speaking on the first night, and then Walls will speak on Wednesday. Harris will speak on Thursday. It's almost as if you're going from the past to the present and then ideally projecting into the future. I'm looking forward to seeing what kind of reception Biden gets tonight. Obviously, it's going to be heartfelt. I imagine the crowd is going to go crazy for him.

There's a lot of appreciation, I think, among Democrats that he actually took the step to say, you know what, I'm not going to run. Obviously, it was a very painful three-week process. And then, Ed, I'm just sort of curious, because you were in the field in Pennsylvania. But back to the idea of, you know, future versus past, not going back. We need to get beyond the politics of the Trump years. Is that something that voters are feeling? Is that resonating with people that you talk to in Pennsylvania? Because I have a theory that more than any specific policy, for instance, with the exception of maybe abortion, you know, Democrats are really jazzed

about that. Yeah, undoubtedly, not just in Pennsylvania, everywhere I've been, there is this energy. There is that sort of magic, elusive momentum that Harris-Walls has captured that just wasn't there with Biden. There is deep affection for Biden in the party. And now apparently coming out of the woodwork from people like Lindsey Graham, didn't hear much of that in the last three and a half years. There is deep affection for him. And I think tonight he will reap that. He will also reap gratitude. I don't know how for stepping down, for taking a bigger hit on behalf of American democracy, because the campaign is young. It is energized. The volunteers who were swarming, crowding around

the Harris-Wallace rebranding of the Biden-Harris office in Allentown, for example, they packed they packed it out. Whereas Biden events a few a few weeks before, I mean, Biden campaign events have been attracting four or five people. There is a massive shift on the ground. And so what he's done is, I think, take a hit for the larger interest of his nation and his party. And tonight's reception, I'll be there, too, at the United Center, I think will reflect a deep gratitude towards him for doing that. You know, there really is. Sam's right. There is a generational divide here that usually sells very well in presidential politics if it's carried through the right way. I will say also, though, the one word that I always saw is Donald Trump's biggest challenge was exhaustion, not not his personal exhaustion, but the exhaustion of especially after January the 6th, exhausted after just the constant fights, the constant insults, the constant battles.

And so now it seems you have exhaustion on that side versus energy and joy, which is what energy and joy, which is what Kamala Harris and her team were projecting forward and trying to project, saying, hey, this is what we're about. And it is a bit like hope and change. But right now, it really seems to be working because Kamala Harris is now leading Donald Trump by six percentage points in the latest ABC News Washington Post Ipsos poll. That is a dramatic turnaround. Harris is holding a 51 percent to 45 percent lead among likely voters nationwide. That's likely voters.

Harris has also flipped the script on the age issue. Look at this. When adults were asked, quote, which candidate is good enough physical health to serve effectively? Harris leads Trump by a 30 point margin. And as you can see there, Donald Trump had led Biden by a 31 point margin. So what? 61 point swing on that question in just a month. Harris also has a nine point advantage when it comes to having the middle sharpness required to serve effectively. And that erases a 30 point lead that Donald Trump

had over Joe Biden on that question. There's also new swing state pulling out in the latest New York Times, Siena College poll. Harris leads Trump by five points among likely voters in Arizona. That's a big shift. And by two points in North Carolina, another big shift. And also suggesting that far from the map closing in on Democrats, it is now expanded out. And North Carolina now obviously going to have to be fought for by Donald Trump. Donald Trump leads Harris, meanwhile, by four percentage points in Georgia and by a single point in Nevada. All those results are with a margin of error. In the May poll conducted when Joe Biden was still the presumptive Democratic

nominee, Trump led by six points in Arizona, nine points in Georgia and 13 points in Nevada. North Carolina was not even part of that previous poll. The important thing to remember here, though, Jonathan Lemire, this race still a tie. That's exactly right. And Vice President Harris has momentum. The trend lines, which we talk about a lot on this show, are certainly in her favor. One could argue, to use the baseball metaphor, which we talk about a lot on this show, are certainly in her favor. One could argue, to use the baseball metaphor, she's basically thrown a no-hitter since taking the top of the ticket. But yet the race is still within the margin of error. That just goes to show how close this is, how divided this race is, and how hard fought it's going to be going forward.

Now, Democrats I speak to, they do think this week's going to be a real opportunity. And there is concern about some of the optics of the protests that will be outside. There were some last night. A huge crowd is expected this evening, pro-Gaza protesters, pro-Palestinian protesters, targeting tonight in particular because that's when President Biden is going to speak. Certainly peaceful protests have obviously the right to be there. But some Democrats I speak to say that if it gets unruly, if they're outside agitators who spark trouble, that could be an unfortunate image that could overshadow some of the joyous scenes from inside the convention. But they think this week

they have a real chance to build momentum even further, come out of it with a bit of a boost. Mara, and we see now that these polls, again, it's early, it's close. But suddenly what Biden had a month ago was one path to victory. He had to thread the needle. It was going to be Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan. And that was going to be hard, doable, but hard. Now, Harris, she certainly still has that path. But many other options now, too, because she's re-energized parts of the Democratic coalition

that simply weren't there for Joe Biden anymore. Younger voters, voters of color, particularly black voters, more of the progressive wing of the party are willing to listen to her, perhaps. And now you're seeing her with a chance. Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia, she can mix and match her way to 270. Yeah, you know what's interesting about this? So I've been traveling, as you know, all year on assignment for The New York Times, talking to Democratic voters in many of these states, Nevada as well. And there was always pent up energy in the party that Joe Biden just wasn't able to tap into, just wasn't able to connect with. That's young voters especially. And the funny thing about this is that

he had sent as vice president Kamala Harris to do some of that work because she was actually drawing crowds, you know, even early this year in many of these states. So this is a situation where a lot of those voters actually have already seen Harris on the trail. These are states where she's spent a lot of time in the past year. She has been hitting the pavement long before she was the front runner. And so she has that advantage where she has actually been out on the campaign trail in these states, listening to local leaders to understanding what is on voters' minds in these specific places. And then on top of that, you just have states where you have,

in many cases, large young people, demographics, large Hispanic and Black populations. And this is electrifying. This has electrified the Democratic base. And there's a sense, of course, that we are moving into the future. And I heard over and over again from young voters, they said, well, I'm not going to vote for Donald Trump. but is Joe Biden it? I like him, but what does he know about my life? And there was just a large disconnect. So I think that this is kind of a coming together of the Democratic base, which is seeing for the first time this year, really, a sense that the ticket, the Democratic ticket, really reflects them. And I think that's why you're seeing Kamala Harris embraced the way you have.

And that's been the Democrats challenge all along to bring the voters home. And, you know, we said this was a tie in effect. We're still within the margin of error, but I never really looked at polls, the exact numbers, because you never know how accurate they're going to be. But I did always look at trend lines. We should still look at trend lines. The trend lines certainly seem to be breaking in Kamala Harris's direction. And really, you look at you look at the direction that it's going. You look at the fact that right now she is out working Donald Trump. Right now, Donald Trump cannot stay on script and is rambling and going off script, causing concern for his staff, causing concern for those closest to him in the campaign. And you just have to ask,

what are the what's the dynamic right now that's going to change between now and the election to reverse that momentum. We have a long way to go, including debate coming up on September 10th. That may be Donald Trump's next opportunity. Still out on Morning Joe, the latest from Israel as Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrives in Tel Aviv for ceasefire talks. David Ignatius joins us to weigh in on that and Ukraine's ongoing push into Russia. You're watching Morning Joe. We're back in 90 seconds.

This is a decisive moment, probably the best, maybe the last opportunity to get the hostages home, to get a ceasefire, and to put everyone on a better path to enduring peace and security. It is time for everyone to get to yes and to not look for any excuses to say no. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken earlier today, he arrived in Israel to pressure officials to strike a ceasefire deal. On Friday, the White House presented a new proposal aimed at bridging the gap between the demands of Israel and Hamas, but Hamas appears to be rejecting it. The group released a statement saying Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is, quote, setting new conditions with the aim of prolonging the war. Blinken's currently meeting with Netanyahu and is in Jerusalem. He's going to be traveling to Egypt tomorrow to meet with the ceasefire negotiators.

Let's bring in right now the column and associate editor that just about everybody, all the interested parties and our allies, the United States, our Arab allies in the region, were supporting a ceasefire deal to bring the hostages home. Even in Benjamin Netanyahu's own cabinet, the defense minister, everybody supporting the deal, everybody that is except Benjamin Netanyahu. Why is that? And how do we and the world get him to move forward on a ceasefire deal that will bring the hostages home? So, Joe, in President Biden's mind, in the words of Secretary of State Blinken today in Israel, this really is seen as the last chance, the last opportunity to make this ceasefire deal work. Why has Prime Minister Netanyahu been resisting it? It's in part a mystery, but I think we can just go to his own words. He keeps speaking about his desire for total victory, absolute victory in a war that his military commanders say that's probably not a

realistic goal, that the deal that's on the table to bring Israeli hostages home to stabilize the situation is probably, from a military standpoint, desirable for Israel. So we'll see a blink in this week, and I think even more President Biden this week and in coming weeks, if necessary, put more chips on the table. I think, Joe, in Biden's remaining months in office, there is nothing that matters more to him. He is toe to toe with Netanyahu. The two have grown to dislike each other. He feels that Netanyahu has been resisting a peace effort that has global support and has the support of the Israeli security establishment. And he wants to push and push and get it through for the sake of Israel as much as the United States. The United States feels, Joe, that our show of force, huge military force that we sent

into the region has probably deterred Iran from seeking retaliation quickly for the strike that was conducted that killed Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas. Hezbollah is seen as still trying to decide, still making up its mind about what to do. But from the standpoint of tougher policy, we've really seen some from the Biden administration, and they see in Iran stepping back from immediate retaliation some real success. David, nobody knows better than you the degree to which Netanyahu has resisted, had to be sort of dragged kicking and screaming even to this point. And yet, as at least part of the reason why no ceasefire is happening.

As you say, the administration has so far prevented a regionalization of this war. Iran has not yet retaliated, as it's threatening to do. The fear is, I think, that if you see a collapse of hopes for a ceasefire, hostage release, et cetera, in Gaza, then that restraint on Iran will be off. Is there a danger still of a regionalization of this war in the coming days if that ceasefire deal does collapse? So I think if this effort, if, as Blinken said today, this last best opportunity to deescalate tensions, get a ceasefire, should collapse. It'll collapse noisily and with additional conflict, no question about it. And how much that would escalate is hard to know.

The U.S. analysis has been that it's not in Iran's interest or in Hezbollah's interest to go into an all-out war with Israel. Certainly not with the danger that the United States might itself intervene. We sent so much military force in the region with the idea that if Iran began attacks, the US would make an ultimatum. You either stop or we're getting in. We're going to we're going to pound Iran itself. So we'd be back in that kind of situation. I again underline the point in the time that Biden has remaining. This has become the thing he most wants to accomplish in terms of foreign policy. I'm told by by close associates, this really matters to him.

So I would expect to see him play the role of bad cop with Netanyahu, saying the tough things, while Kamala Harris says the traditional lines of the ironclad American support for Israel. This will be Biden's time to be the bad cop. But it is, if at the end of this week week we don't have progress toward the ceasefire, I think we have to think again about the danger of a wider military conflict. David Maragay here from The Times. Can you talk a little bit more about how the dramatic shift in change in front runners has impacted these negotiations. Is there any sense that Anthony Blinken has lost

leverage? Or is there any sense that leaders on both sides of the negotiations may be trying to wait out President Biden? What are they thinking about what could happen to these negotiations? So, Mara, there's no question that Prime Minister Netanyahu was waiting for, hoping for, expecting a victory in November by Donald Trump. I think there's a win, which is attenuating this process, stretching out the negotiations, reflected his sense that a more sympathetic American leader was on the way. I'm told he's now beginning to question that. He can look at the polls just like you and I can. And he sees that Kamala Harris has a much better chance of winning in November. And that affects calculations. Frankly, she has not been centrally involved in crafting our Middle East strategy.

And so I don't see her playing a direct role in the intervening time when she became president. There's so many things we don't know about about about Harris's policies. But for principal foreign policy upon Phil Gordon is somebody who's very close to the to the to the Biden team. So I expect continuity. But but for now, this this this spotlight should be on Biden and Bibi. And that's it. So turning to Europe now, the Washington Post reports that Ukraine and Russia were set to negotiate an agreement in Qatar this month that would have seen both sides agree to cease strikes on energy infrastructure. However, Ukraine's surprise incursion into Russia reportedly derailed those negotiations. Both sides have targeted energy sources throughout the war, with Russia increasing its attacks during the winter to maximize the effect on Ukrainian civilians. Meanwhile, as Ukraine continues to push forward with its surprise incursion, President Volodymyr Zelensky said yesterday that the goal of the offensive is to create a buffer zone to prevent further attacks by Moscow across the border.

So, David, let's let's talk about this now. I mean, this incursion took the United States off guard. They have so far stayed remarkably silent about it, despite a lot of worries earlier in the war about Ukraine escalating the conflict. Give us your latest reporting in terms of how the U.S. feels is much like what you heard from Russia, that Ukraine was doing this in attempt to pull Russian troops away from what had been a successful offense in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. They were really pushing ahead, breaking through Ukrainian lines and were said to have taken as many as dozens of additional villages. Now the Russians are distracted.

They have to worry about their own territory. Trying to improve their own morale and weaken Russian morale by this surprise offensive. But I think most important, trying to create territory that would be a useful bargaining chip in the negotiations that everybody knows at some point are coming. This war will end in a negotiated settlement at some point. So now Ukraine has some territory if they can hold it. Some interesting things that I've been told by my sources. One, the Ukrainians have designated this area inside the Kursk province of Russia as as a military zone with with military governance that they're going to establish. That means they intend to stay a while.

They're hitting bridges that would allow the Russians to send in reinforcements and easily push the Ukrainians back out. They're being careful not to move too far. If they move too deep into Russia, their supply lines would be so attenuated that they'd be encircled and could get annihilated in Russia. So they're doing this carefully, I think, with the idea for remaining a while. New York Times and The Washington Post were both allowed to visit cities inside this occupied area over the weekend. What they saw was ukrainian troops trying to behave decently showing the the russians there that they didn't intend to hurt people in the in the in the camps they now have some hundreds of prisoners you get different estimates

ranging from 300 up to several thousand i don't know many, but it's obvious there are a lot of prisoners, and that will allow Ukraine to bargain for prisoner exchanges. What has apparently been disrupted was this talk of some kind of Russian-Ukrainian agreement to stop hitting energy facilities during the winter. It's a great vulnerability of Ukrainians, being done through the mediation of Qatar, that is frozen at the very best. It may be revived. How serious that was is hard to know, given the reports that we have. But the Ukrainians, I think, have just decided that they, like the Russians, have got to create facts on the ground if they're going to have any success in negotiation. All right. The Washington Post's David Ignatius, as always. Thank you so much. Thanks, Joe. All right. And coming up, DNC Chair Jamie Harrison joins us live from Chicago.

He's going to walk through what the DNC is going to look like this week and what we can expect to hear when President Joe Biden delivers the keynote address tonight. Morning show will be right back. Beautiful morning shot of the Capitol. We're looking at Capitol Hill at 6.38 a.m. along with political fight for the presidency. Of course, the House and the Senate in play. We're going to be talking to Maura Gay in a second about what the Democrats plan centered around to take back the House. Former Republican Congressman George Santos is expected to plead guilty today in

federal court. A hearing is scheduled for this afternoon at the courthouse on Long Island in New York. Two sources familiar with the matter tell NBC News Santos is expected to plead guilty to multiple charges related to campaign finance fraud. Santos had previously pleaded not guilty to all charges. A lawyer for the former congressman did not return a request for comment. And, Mara, you have a new piece for The New York Times titled The Unusual Strategy That Might Help Democrats Win Back the House. And it has something to do with that seat formerly held by Santos.

I will say also, after Democrats lost control a couple of years ago, a lot of eyes turned toward New York State, wondering how the Democrats had messed things up so badly there. You're saying they're trying to turn things around this year. You know what the unusual strategy is, Joe, in New York state for the Democrats? The unusual strategy is to actually run a campaign where you actually talk to voters, you knock on doors, you make phone calls. That's radical. It's a radical idea for the New York Democratic Party, which actually is far better at fending off challenges from primary in primary races from progressives

and other outsiders than it is in winning competitive races. And that's, of course, because New York has become an overwhelmingly Democratic state over the years. But the state party is weak. And we saw this actually again. You know, Governor Hochul is not a very popular governor. And so in 2022, she actually only won by six points. And so there were that if that isn't a warning sign, I don't know what. So this year, things are a little different. Democrats in Washington, Democrats across the state have come together. And I wouldn't say that they're panicked. I would say that they are deeply engaged in trying to get boots on the ground into Long Island and other swing districts in upstate New York and the Hudson Valley to make sure that they are actually running the race as a competitive race that it is.

So this is a radical idea in New York. We could we could spend an entire month talking about why. But I think a lot of people outside New York are thinking, how could this happen in New York City's backyard? Well, you know, New York suburbs are diverse like other places. Long Island also has become very, very friendly to Donald Trump. And so that has also thrown a wrench into Democratic efforts. But this this year, they are feeling more confident on the Democratic side that at least a majority of these races are going to be in good shape for them. Well, and Sam Stein, Democrats have to be feeling pretty good about what's going on with a guy we both know, John Avalon. He's all the way out east on Long Island. He handily won his primary, which people expected to be close. But if you follow that race

out there, John's knocking on doors. He's planting yard signs. He's holding a lot of small meetings. He's doing the very thing that Maura's reporting about, getting out and running a grassroots campaign. And he's running against a guy who's one of Donald Trump's most reliable supporters. So in a swing district with a guy who's sort of independent in John Avalon, there's a good roadmap to Democrats taking back some seats they lost. Well, I have to cop to being completely impartial on this one because John Avalon hired me when I was at the Daily Beast. So it's OK. I will say as objectively as I can that this does tie into what we were talking about earlier, which is John preaches a type of politics that is, I don't want to say postpartisan, but it's close, right? It's let's stop with this nonsense. We have to get beyond Trumpism. Everyone's exhausted by the

rancor. We need to just move forward and be more constructive. Now, for a while, that seemed really hokey. And we're like, oh, that's just John being John. But it has real resonance in this current moment. And I think the proof is that John, if you talk to him, he expected his primary campaign to be a lot closer. I think he ended up winning by like, what, 20, 30 something percent, maybe even more. And I think people just sort of were attracted to that message that we just can't keep doing this type of battlefield politics over and over again. Now, I will say Long Island, yeah, it's not as Democratic as probably people perceive. A lot of working class voters there. It's voted Republican. But I think in this modern day and age,

we've just had eight years of this and we're just ready to move on. I think Harris is a beneficiary of this, too. Yeah, but I can tell you it is it is a radical thing, Mara. But when you start knocking on doors, when you start planting yard signs in people's yards, when you start holding town hall meetings, when you get on the ground the way you're saying Democrats are finally starting to do this year, amazing things start happening. You start winning. No, that's right. You know, the other key here is that Congressman Tom Swasey already pulled this off earlier this year. He won back that seat that had been held by George Santos for for the Democrats. Swasey did. And he did it by, you know, first of all, he's a he's a known name on Long Island. So he did have advantages. But he went and he talked to voters. He told me he called me

last week. We spoke and he said, I didn't leave a single constituent on the on the table. So he was out beating the pavement, which is something he has always done. It's just not something that other Democrats have done in New York, especially. And I think it's going to be much harder on Eastern Long Island. The demographics there trend more Republican, but John Avalon has been running a very smart race. I think that New York 4, which is in Southwest Long Island, is probably the best chance for a pickup on Long Island by Democrats. But it's just heartening to see Democrats actually talking to voters about, you know, what concerns them. This may actually have longer term implications for them, too,

in the state. So it's important and it's being closely watched. Yeah. And certainly, Joe, there are Democrats who feel who are very disappointed with how 2022 went here in New York state, but feel like in a presidential year with a higher turnout, that will certainly help. But to Mara's point about eastern Long Island, where John Avalon is running, being a challenge of the 50 most populous counties in the United States in 2020, Donald Trump won exactly one of them. That was Suffolk County in eastern New York. So it Donald Trump won exactly one of them. That was Suffolk County in Eastern New York. So it is an uphill climb there for Democrats.

It's going to be interesting, Maury Gay. Thank you so much. Great reporting. We always love having you with us. And still ahead, President Biden's senior advisor, Ben LeBolt, is going to be our guest to preview what Joe Biden's opening night speech at the Democratic Convention will be. Also ahead had DNC

Chair Jamie Peterson, Pete Buttigieg and Senator Gary Peters of Michigan will join the conversation. Morning, Joe. We'll be right back. Zerxe, space in which to operate. Casemiro, Garnaccio, and McTominay! Whoa, the English rear-leading season is underway. That was Manchester United newcomer Joshua Zerxe in the opener on Friday, coming on as a substitute and scoring in his debut. Man U beat Fulham 1-0. Parents, wake your children up because just as the Cliff Swallows return

to Capistrano each spring and the 17-year cicadas stay underground until the time is just right. My friends, here's our own Capistrano cliff swallow bird, Roger Bennett. How are you doing my man? Oh,

this is the 14th year I have covered the premier league on your show. Jack 14 years. Meek has pretended to wonder what I'm doing here. 14 years? Back when I had hair, my own teeth. Those were the days. You look like Frampton in 76. Your hair was all over.

You know, it wasn't just Mika, though. It wasn't just Mika. You had quite a few other guests staring at you asking why you were around. What are you doing on a political show? How the world has changed. We are now a proper football loving country in the United States of America, in small part thanks to you and your early passion. But the 2024-25 Premier League is back with us. Shall we look at it, Joe? Yes, yes, of course. 380 games scattered over 281 days.

It's the best of the Paris Olympics. You've got suave Frenchmen, cool-shooting South Koreans, unsyncopated Australian breakdancers, but for eight sweet long months. Let's start with the marquee matchup of the weekend. Defending champions Man City travelling to chaotic American-owned Chelsea, going for the five-peat while they're facing 115 charges in court. City opened as rampantly as they will their court case.

18 minutes, Erling Haaland ran through the Chelsea gut like a Nordic Earl Campbell. City honestly felt inevitable through this one they finished off the game through Kovacic broke through oh made the Chelsea goalkeeper oh look like a JD Vance stump speech City win had a canter 2-0 two things can be true Joe you can be in legal jeopardy and still be so very good at football. This is Arsenal, the Stan Kroenke-owned club, who also believe their title challengers, their season started against a win against Wolves. The pick of the goals, young, joyous,

English Ewok, Bukayo Saka, stepping inside and unloading this poem of a shot and celebrating by saying, are you not entertained? We are for Caio. Wolves' best attack, this proctologist exam that Yerson Mosquero handed out

right then and there on the field. Arsenal clenched and held on to win 2-0. And finally, Joe, your Liverpool, a home by the Boston Red Sox group. They kicked off the season with this man, a new coach they are now led by a man with a head of an enormous baby

his name's Arne Slott his first game was glorious, up in agricultural culture here at Ipswich partially owned by Ed Sheeran no mercy, this is Egyptian king Mo Salah, fresh hair transplant for Mo. He's got the freedom to no longer having to fear male pattern baldness.

New manager, Joe Seymour Liverpool, as this ultra marathon begins for you. Chiefing and deafening, but Hooper bounds, right? Well, I mean, I don't you know, it is just so strange watching anybody play, anybody walking the sidelines other than that great giant Teutonic Care Bear. As you said, Jurgen Klopp, it really is really is strange, especially now that you've put that image in my mind that the bald head of a gigantic baby. It is. He is. And the all black look, he looks like he's a saxophonist in a 1980s British ska revival tour band, which I do like. It's a very lovely flourish.

I'm happy for you that everything is back, Joe. And for everybody who lost this weekend, just remember what is dead may never die. Man, long way to go. A long way to go. So is City the favorite this year again? They are. And they are facing an unusual year.

They're owned by Abu Dhabi. They have right now 115 charges brought to them by the Premier League, which they've won four times on the run. They're going to face a court date starting in September. So they may either romp away with the league once again or be found out with financial misdemeanors, a bit like Abu Dhabi-O New England Patriots, or face the results of that. So it's a very dual narrative.

Part Friday night lights their season, part suits kind of court procedure. It's going to be a very surreal season joe so buckle up i can't wait all right founder of men and blazers media network roger bennett thank you so much for launching your 14th year on morning joe courage thank you jake courage coming up we're going to be moving back to politics and take a look at the Harris Waltz bus tour across Pennsylvania over the weekend, hitting the battleground state before the start of the Democratic National Convention. Donald Trump is also in the Keystone State this weekend. He mostly ignored his allies and advisers who have pleaded with him to stay on message.

We'll show you why when we show you more of his rally. Just head on. Morning, Joe.