Morning Joe - Morning Joe 8/21/23

Episode Date: August 21, 2023

The first 2024 Iowa poll reveals that 42% of likely Republican caucusgoers say Trump is their first choice out of 14 different GOP presidential candidates, while 19% pick DeSantis. 

Putin would have never gone into Ukraine, but that was just on my relationship with him, my personality over his, would have never gone. I used to speak to him, it was the apple of his eye. You are the apple of my eye. Forever you stay in my heart. I feel like this is the beginning. Though I've loved you for a million years. Our take on Donald Trump's claim that he was the apple of Russian President Vladimir Putin's eye. We've got a lot to get to this morning, including Trump's decision on whether or not he'll attend Wednesday's Republican presidential primary debate. We'll show you how his GOP rivals are responding.

Meanwhile, the former president has until Friday to surrender to authorities in Fulton County, Georgia. We'll have more on the possible timeline with that. Also ahead, the latest on the life-threatening storm hitting Southern California, prompting a state of emergency from the governor. And we'll have an update on the recovery efforts in Maui ahead of President Joe Biden's visit to Hawaii later today. A lot to get to on this Monday morning. Welcome to Morning Joe. It's Monday, August 21st. And with us, we have U.S. special correspondent for BBC News,

Katty K, doing way too early duties for us this morning. And founder of the conservative website, The Bulwark, Charlie Sykes is with us. Willie will be back tomorrow. But right now we're following new polling that shows Donald Trump's hold over the Republican base is as strong as ever. In the latest CBS News YouGov survey, the former president has 62 percent of support from likely GOP primary voters, 46 percent clear of his closest challenger. And among those likely Trump voters, the poll shows they trust the former president even more than their own loved ones. Let's put a frame around that. They trust the former president

more than they trust their own loved ones. 71% say they feel what Trump tells them is the truth. I had a friends and family at 63% conservative media figures at 56% and a religious leader at 42%. All right. So this weekend, uh, Mika and I last night were having a conversation around the table and Mika was just asking how how could people still be so so slavishly devoted to Donald Trump? And, you know, it's important to say here we we we weren't talking about she didn't ask how could people vote for Republicans. She understands how people can vote Republican. She wasn't saying, oh, I don't understand. And we weren't saying we don't understand how somebody could be pro-life. We weren't saying we don't understand how people we know could have maybe a more expansive view of the Second Amendment than the Supreme Court even.

We weren't talking about issues or socials. It was, again, not related to Republicans or conservatism. We certainly understand why people might be turned off on the left and some of the extremes on the left. This was about Donald Trump. How could people support Donald Trump? And the question just kept coming up and there were really no good answers, except, you know, the question is, is it a cult? Is it? I mean, you look at it, Charlie, you look at definition cult leaders. I just saw this on Google off the top. Cult leaders must be dynamic, charismatic and convincing because their goal is to control their members to acquire money or power related advantages.

These characteristics are crucial because a cult leader needs his members to strictly adhere to his teachings and doctrines. Well, the funny thing there is it doesn't really fit there because Donald Trump doesn't really have any teaching or doctrine other than follow me blindly. But think about it, Charlie. I mean, how twisted it is just generally. That in America. People follow a political leader like we always ask the questions, why? Why do people have flags of a politician? Trump people might like be proud about that. No, that's nothing to be proud about. Politicians serve us. We don't like wave flags for them.

But these numbers, these numbers, 71 percent follow Trump, trust Trump explicitly. 63% trust their friends and family. So he was saying, well, wait a second. These people know us. They talk to us. They share our values in so many ways. We've known them for years. Now the children. And their children play with our children.

And we know these people. Why wouldn't they sit around the table and talk to this community? And you look at that number, they trust a politician, a failed reality TV talk show host who has been indicted because of what he did with Pornstar, who's been indicted for trying to steal election, which they know he tried to steal the election. I think there must be happy that he tried to steal the election. They've heard the tapes. And then conservative media figures, you know, people go, oh, it's because they watch Fox. It's because they watch Fox. Well, no, now Trump members are are are attacking Fox News. And then this is the most shocking thing coming from the evangelical church. Nearly 30 percent more people blindly follow their cult leader, Donald Trump,

than their own religious leaders. That's like, please don't tell me about how this is a Jesus thing. It's not a Jesus thing. It's a cult thing when 30 percent more blindly follow Trump than listen to religious leaders. It is this is I think this is one of the most revealing polls in quite some time to ask, you know, answer the question, why do people blindly follow Trump? And I don't I don't know what a definition exactly of a cult is. I read it on Google, and a lot of those things certainly line up. This, though, is bizarre. Let's just focus on that 30% more blindly follow Trump and trust this politician than they trust their own religious leaders,

despite everything that he has done. No, it is a cult. And I'm really glad you're featuring this, Joe, because this was the number that I was looking at last night as I was preparing for for the week. If you had any doubt that, you know, the Republican base has become this hermetically sealed alternative reality, just look at those numbers. And it also, you know, it is hard to get your head around, you know, that degree of slavish devotion. And the question there was, you know, who do you believe is going to tell you the truth? And you have more than 70 percent name someone who is probably the worst chronic liar in American political history.

But it is the contrast. When you have 30 percent more saying that we believe that Trump tells us the truth rather than religious leaders. I mean, this explains, I think David French made this point yesterday, this explains why the religious objections to Donald Trump are not going to land and why it's probably beyond the capability at this point of church leaders to say, no, this is just the wrong direction for us to go. But this is a pretty good example. And this is a pretty good example between this, you know, the CBS poll, you know, showing that he's above 60 percent now, despite all of these indictments. I think I think we have a we have a picture here.

But again, how do you break through that? How do you do this? It is it is a fever that has not come close to breaking. Well, and one of the reasons why you can't break through is if you ask why and you actually try and literally have a conversation, you say I need to understand why you feel this way. What was the fact based event that leads you to this conclusion? And they you won't even finish that. They'll go, stop, stop. Don't even want to talk about it. I can't. I will not.

I will not talk about it. That is what I got last night. And that is a cult when you don't even want to talk about it because you believe what you believe, even though, you know, deep inside, it may not be true. You don't care. You follow blindly. Well, you don't. You follow blindly. You don't want to talk about it. Following blindly. I mean, again, we don't know what exactly will let people much smarter than us, Katty K, decide what a cult is and what a cult is. And we haven't studied it

through the years. I will say, though, you know, as somebody that went to Baptist church and, you know, not a good Baptist, just like not a good lawyer, falling off turnip trucks left and right. But I did know the Bible. I did read the Bible. I was, you know, my parents had me in church three or four times a week. So, you know, none of this lines up with everything we were taught growing up. I'm talking about evangelicals, conservative Catholics. None of it lines up. And so I've been asking myself and people like Russell Moore have been asking themselves and other people.

Beth Moore have been asking themselves what. OK, so what's going on with our faith? What's going on with our tribe? What's going going on with our tribe? What's going on with our church? And the answer is that these pastors, for the most part, are bending to the will of their parishioners because they know what we saw in this poll, that if they say you have to choose between Jesus Christ and this church and Donald Trump. They'll pick Donald Trump and they do every day. Yeah, despite all of the stories that we've had about his personal life,

and we saw this in 2016 with the Access Hollywood tape when that came out and what he said about women and thinking, well, perhaps that was going to be the line that evangelical Christians who'd been supporting him would said about women and thinking, well, perhaps that was going to be the line that evangelical Christians who'd been supporting him would come up against and say, well, actually, you know what, I just can't go there. And they didn't. And there was a sort of, you know, the deal that Donald Trump did when he called in evangelical leaders into his campaign during the 2016 campaign and said, listen, you overlook this and I will give you exactly what you want. And it was a kind of pact, a Faustian pact that was made that they felt benefited.

But this polling suggests something else. It suggests that there is a real belief. This is not a transactional bargain where they look the other way. This is actually we do now believe that Donald Trump is going to be the person that will tell us the truth. And it's the remarkable thing about him that he's managed to stir up such incredible, strong feelings. You know, we used to say Republicans fell in line

and Democrats fell in love. Well, in this case, it's Trump supporters have fallen very in love, and Democrats who are kind of in line behind their presidential candidate. Look at these numbers one more time, and then we'll go to Steve Kornacki to talk about new polling out of Iowa. Again, the numbers are stark, to say the least.

Who do they believe? 71 percent Donald Trump among Trump voters. More, almost 10 points more than their own family and their own friends. 15% more than conservative media figures. So again, is this like, oh, well, they're saying this on Fox News and that's, no, actually, it's 15% more, which is why he can say I'm not doing the Republican debate. And then again, this is the most surprising thing that this would ever happen in America, that this would ever happen in the Republican Party, that this would ever happen among so-called conservative voters, nothing conservative about it. 42% believe religious leaders compared to 71% who believe Donald Trump.

That certainly sounds like a cult. We've seen all the deprogramming where, you know, you try to bring, parents have tried to bring pastors in, tried to bring people of faith in to reach their children or reach family members who are in a cult, and they just won't listen. Well, they're not going to listen to religious leaders. They're not going to listen to people of faith. They're not going to be listening to people who are in the ministry of Jesus Christ, who've committed their lives to studying the gospel. They're not going to do that. They're going to follow this politician, despite everything that he's done. The thing that comes with it is they hate Joe Biden with a passion.

Well, but you may hate his policies or whatever, but they hate him based on, oh, he's a crime family. No, no, no, no, no. They hate him because if you're in a cult and you can see this, you hate everybody who's not in the cult. The entire purpose of the cult is to to destroy every other belief system and remain in your insular bubble. And that's exactly exactly where they are. So let's look at Iowa. New polling from Iowa. The first voting state on the Republican primary calendar shows Donald Trump is still the person to beat.

But there is potential for some movement. For the numbers, let's bring in NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki at the big board with the latest. Steve, what do you got? Yeah, this is an exciting new venture for NBC. We've partnered with the Des Moines Register. The Des Moines Register does its polling with Ann Salzer. This is the absolute gold standard poll of the first in the nation caucus state.

And so we've seen all of these numbers about national polling in this Republican race. But as you say, it all starts in Iowa. And the theory of every candidate who's trying to beat Donald Trump is that they can win Iowa, get traction in Iowa and take that slingshot to the next wave of primaries and to the nomination. So the Iowa polling we have been missing all summer, high quality Iowa polling. Well, right now we've got the gold standard to unveil to you this again from Ann Seltzer, part of our partnership, a new one with the Des Moines Register. These are the numbers here. This is the bottom line in terms of asking likely caucus goers who they would support right now. Trump is well ahead, more than 2 to 1, 42 percent. Ron DeSantis, the only challenger in double digits.

He's at 19 percent. Tim Scott, just under 10 percent. You see Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, Chris Christie. You go all the way down to Will Hurd at 1 percent. So Trump with that sizable lead here in Iowa. Looking inside the numbers a little bit, evangelical voters in particular. In 2016, remember, Donald Trump did not win evangelical voters in the Iowa caucuses in 2016. He didn't win the Iowa caucuses, in fact, in 2016.

Ted Cruz did. But among evangelicals now in this poll, Trump is at 47 percent, nearly 50 percent of evangelicals backing Donald Trump. Two thirds, roughly, of all Iowa caucus goers in 2016 identified as evangelicals. This is a huge voting block in the Iowa caucuses. There's Trump at 47 percent. And by the way, there's Mike Pence, who has built his political career in large part on ties to evangelical Christians. He's at six percent with evangelicals and his unfavorable rating. Fifty one percent with evangelical voters in Iowa.

That's Pence, who obviously has taken his share of heat from Donald Trump over his actions on January 6th. Asking Iowa Republicans here, has Trump committed serious crimes? Only 26% believe so. 65%, nearly two-thirds, say he's not committed serious crimes. Very interesting tidbit. This poll was conducted sort of between the news

coming out of Georgia last week of the latest Trump indictment. The portion of the poll that was conducted before that news broke had Donald Trump leading in Iowa over Ron DeSantis by 18 points. The portion of the poll that was conducted after the news of the latest indictment broke had Donald Trump's lead swelling to 25 points. So, again, you do see that rally around Trump effect that seems to take hold with each one of these indictments.

You saw that in this poll. Also, historically here, Trump leading by 23 points. The Des Moines Register poll is one that has a rich history going all the way back to the 1980s. These are Republicans at this point. These are Republican races at this point in the cycle. Who's had a lead comparable to Donald Trump's 23 points? Well, George W. Bush back in the 2000 cycle, he led by 27 at this point. He ended up winning by 11. Bob Dole, they called him the president of Iowa for a while in 96.

He was up 46 points at this point. He won in 96, but only by three points in the caucuses. So there's an example where a big lead shrank dramatically. And then you do have some examples here of candidates who led at this point and ended up losing. Their leads weren't as big as Trump is right now. But if somebody is going to make a move and catch Trump in Iowa, who might that be? One way of looking at it is this. Ask about the favorable, unfavorable ratings of these different candidates. And I think a couple of things are notable. DeSantis may be 23 points behind Trump, but DeSantis actually has the best margin here on favorable, unfavorable. Sixty six percent of Republicans in Iowa have a favorable

view of DeSantis. Twenty nine unfavorable. Trump's number is very strong. It's stronger than it was for Trump in 16. But DeSantis is a touch higher. Tim Scott, extremely popular, too. Nikki Haley, popular as well. Notably, Chris Christie, who's gone the hardest after Donald Trump, extremely negative. Mike Pence, 42-53 negative. So right now, if you're looking at somebody who might be able to make a run at Trump in Iowa, maybe it's most likely a DeSantis.

It could be Scott, maybe a Nikki Haley. When we ask voters, in fact, to their second choices, it's spread out. DeSantis gets the highest second choice total. But Tim Scott's right there with 15 percent as well. Vivek Ramaswamy, by the way, at 12 percent. So the problem for DeSantis, not only is he 23 points behind, he's very well liked still by Republicans in Iowa. But right now, it's not as if he is the default second choice of all of those voters in Iowa. And one other interesting number I think we can show you here. We just asked voters in Iowa, what's most important to you, going with a candidate who's closest to your views or electability, a candidate who can beat Biden. And you see about two thirds said closest to their views on the issues.

Interesting split here. The one saying closest to their views on the issues, Trump with a massive lead there of 30 points. Those looking at electability, Trump leads, but DeSantis is within 10, Scott's in double digits. So the more the Iowa Republican voters focus on that question of electability, that's where Trump starts to get into a closer contest here with his opponents. So, yes, overall, a very big lead for Donald Trump in Iowa, one that historically has portended good things for candidates in that position. But you do see rivals here in Iowa, notably DeSantis, notably Scott, to some degree Haley, who are still very well known and very well liked by Republicans.

And we have more than half Republicans in this poll saying their minds not made up yet. That is fascinating. Of course, you look at that 96 drop by Bob Dole. I mean, wow, that was a precipitous drop. Also, Mitt Romney coming back from behind a good bit from behind. with 19 co-conspirators and this RICO charges. He's on tape lying about, you know, trying to rig the election. And you've got the Republican leaders of Georgia, the Republican leaders of Georgia, not left wingers, the Republican leaders of Georgia telling voters he's a liar, saying, no, the election wasn't rigged. They win in the Republican primary there in a landslide. But what happens in this poll? Again, facts don't matter. Again, we don't know what the definition, exact definition of a cult is.

And that's for people other than us to determine whether this is in fact a cult. But my gosh, certainly, certainly it is bizarre that facts just don't matter, that actually his numbers go up after he's indicted in a multi-count criminal indictment to steal an election. Yeah, it's a feature of kind of populism and it has been for the last decade or so, but has grown more so that we are in an era of purist politics, not pragmatic politics. And I thought it was so interesting that question about, do you want somebody who shares your views? Is that more important to you?

Or are you gonna vote pragmatically and try and vote for somebody who actually could be elected and beat Joe Biden and a two-thirds majority say, no, what matters to me is the purism of Donald Trump's, what he's offering, the kind of the populism. And I think, you know, that's where the Iowa voters are at the moment. I love the history, Steve. Are we going to be 96 and see a kind of Bob Dole style lead kind of evaporate? Or is this going to be more like 2000 and see George W. Bush maintaining his lead better? I mean, that's super interesting. And

I don't know, does the polling throw in all of those Democrats who might be sitting home on Iowa caucus night thinking, actually, you know what, I'm kind of bored. I miss the civic tradition of going to the caucuses. I'm going to go along and muddy the waters and vote for some Republican that I like. Have we seen any indication of whether that might happen and how many Democrats might turn out

and vote in the Republican caucuses? Well, the one thing that we did look at, and I don't have the graphic to show you here, but independence. We did ask about independence potentially deciding to participate in the in the caucuses. And that's actually where both Trump and DeSantis did the worst. It's just a very small share of the overall pie there. But yeah, when you start broadening it out to independents, that, again, it gets to the, you find it more likely for voters to say they have concerns about Trump and electability,

Trump and committing crimes, those sorts of things. So, and again, it's interesting too, you saw that briefly in the polling coming out in November midterm. It seems like ancient history now, but there was all sorts of polling, some national, some state level in December of last year, January, February this year, where Trump's lead, again, national state level was not that massive. It's actually grown

since February or March of this year, really since those indictments began. Remember, the first indictment came in New York City, in Manhattan. That was the first of this wave. And if you had a trend line here, I could show you. But Trump's lead has just grown since that first indictment. So it was almost like there was a rally around Trump effect that was kind of kicked in there. And yeah, you do wonder when you look at this historically. I mean, I remember that 96 one. It was actually Pat Buchanan who

came in second place. They're just three points behind Bob Dole. And then Buchanan went on in one New Hampshire a week later. Again, that's the theory of any of these candidates running against Trump. It's that I was the kind of state where retail politics still works, where you can spend months doing events with 50, 100, 200 people. You can build support that way. And if you can win Iowa, you can roll it into the subsequent states. I think the question here, again, is you look at how well-liked DeSantis is, how well-liked Scott is, to some degree how well-liked Haley is. Can one of them consolidate support in the next few months? And that might get to what's at stake in this debate coming up this week.

Can one of them consolidate support, move up within striking distance of Trump in Iowa, and really try to make it effectively a two-person race there? Because if that's the case, you can start to see in these numbers a scenario where it could get interesting. I'm curious. Thank you, Steve, very much. NBC News national political correspondent. I'm curious as to how this debate resonates, whether it gets a lot of looks and if someone can really break through. But, Charlie, that rally around Trump effect with each indictment, of course, we have this Thursday or Friday when he's going to be arraigned. Do we expect that to continue? And it leads me to worry that it will trigger bad behavior on Trump's part if he sees this rise with each indictment and each legal problem, that creating legal problems might be his way forward.

Well, let's go out on a limb here and say that, yes, it will encourage more bad behavior from Donald Trump because he's Donald Trump. No, I don't expect that we're going to see the dynamic change that much, because one of the things that Donald Trump has done effectively is to play the victim card, is to say they're they're not just coming after me. They're coming after you, which feeds into the point, Mika, that you made earlier that, you know, one of the essences of this cult is the degree to which they fear, loathe and hate the opposition, not just Joe Biden, but the entire Democratic Party and the left. Because if you convince people that the enemy wants to destroy you, hates America, hates God, hates everything that is good and beautiful, then you are going to tolerate,

you know, a lot of bad behavior. So this is a cult. We are seeing that it is a cult. And what does a cult do under pressure? It closes ranks and it rallies around the cult leader. And I expect that that's going to continue to happen. So it's so fascinating. You said that, that there's this belief inside the cult that everybody wants to destroy the cult. I was talking to an evangelical leader last week who had told me that he was being cursed out by a religious leader for basically being a tool of Satan and opposing Donald Trump. Not not not falling in line blindly with Donald Trump. And I said, just explain it to me. I really I do want to know, like all we all grown up in the same tradition, all reading the same God. Tell me what. Why would they do that? Why are they still there? And he said, it's so it's so interesting.

Your answer, he said, because there are people out there every day making money, sending out direct solicitations, saying they're coming to get you. They're coming to destroy your churches. They're going to take Christians and put them in concentration camps. If it's guns, they're coming to get all of your guns. They're going to lock you up. We've already said there was, you know, that that Fox special that said the helicopters that went after the Taliban are coming to America and they're coming after you. The FBI is going to kick down the doors of all Trump supporters and arrest them. It is actually that's the cult message, which is they're coming to get you and your family. Everybody outside this little bubble outside of this political cult is the enemy. Yeah, right. And Donald Trump is the big protector. And if they

get Donald Trump, that they will get you as well. You know, in terms of evangelical Christians and this notion that some of you don't support Joe Biden, you are a tool of Satan. I know you've talked to Russell Moore, who is the Baptist leader. I just think it's extraordinary how many how many of his fellow Christians he's talked to that actually believe that some of the teachings of Jesus Christ, including the Sermon on the Mount, that if you read it to them, they say, no, no, that's woke. That's too left wing. There's been an inversion of what Christianity is from being a belief system to being an identity system. And it is this, the purity of politics has trumped any of the

content of all of this. So otherwise, how do you explain how you have a cult, you know, that includes so many believing church going evangelical Christians who look at Donald Trump, see his lies, his crimes, you know, his indictment for paying off a porn star and go, yeah, we're OK with that. We're OK with that because that's what stands between us and the satanic hordes that are trying to destroy us and America. Well, it's so incredible is the theology that they all grew up with, the theology that's been been dominant for thousands of years around Christianity has been. It's centered around the Sermon on the Mount, which is at the beginning of the Gospels. It's Matthew, you know, you go five through seven. All of the teachings fall into this verse and this sermon. And yet these are the very areas, the very areas that are the centerpiece of Christian theology for thousands of years that Christians today that, you know, whether you're talking about Russell or David French are throwing away.

And by the way, members of Trump's family went out on the campaign trail and saying Jesus's teachings are too left wing. Jesus's teachings don't relate anymore, are not relevant anymore. Turning the other cheek, not relevant anymore. Again, not to get into theology here, but for evangelicals watching and others understand how far afield it's come. You read the Sermon on the Mount and it's about forgiving forgiving 70 times

seven considered a perfect number always forgiving turning the other cheek if you're struck on the cheek turn the other cheek blessed are the meek blessed are the the merciful blessed are the peacemakers blessed are over and over and over again you see all of these things that Donald Trump is not and that he's taken. Turned upside former followers of of of of Jesus's teaching to now say on national TV, well, those those teachings aren't relevant anymore because we've got a talk show, a reality talk show host who became president for four years and we're going to follow him again. So there you go. So we're going to continue this conversation. But right now we are following severe weather in Southern California where tropical storm Hillary

is pummeling the Los Angeles area. This is the Los Angeles metro area. The storm made landfall yesterday in Mexico and quickly moved north to the United States. Hillary is already smashing records for rainfall across California, with some parts of the state reporting nearly three inches of rain yesterday. Let's bring in meteorologist Bill Cairns. Bill, good to see you, but terrible circumstances. Give us the latest. Yeah, good morning. Great to be back with the family here.

But this storm, it did exactly what we were afraid of. The wind was not a huge ordeal. We only have 50,000 people without power. It's been all about the rain, the mudslides, the landslides, the rockslides, the debris flows, the burn scar areas. There's hundreds, if not thousands of scenes like this. There are roads washed out. There are communities that are cut off. You can't drive in. The roads aren't going to exist anymore. And these are mostly in the mountains to the north of L.A. and to the east of L.A. and San Diego, for that matter, too. Just it's going to be a mess. A lot of these pictures were taken

right before sunset and the rain continued, if not got worse after that. So when the sun comes up today, we'll get a better idea of just who was hit the hardest and who was hit the worst. So the storm itself did cross over California's tropical storm. That's only the fourth time in recorded history that's ever happened. So that's why this was like mind blowing, like big deal. And it's the first time since 1970s and anything like this happened. and so the storm is racing northwards now so we're all done with it in southern california just a little bit of rainfall left and by the way some of the highest rainfall totals 11 inches in the mountains here in mount san jacinto mount laguna had about seven inches san diego had two inches la two and a half inches and it typically never rains in la in the middle

of the summer like it's. Winter is the rainy season. This is so unusual, and everywhere in Maroon here, including downtown Los Angeles, is all under flash flood warnings. And by the way, even the Palm Springs area, they lost 911 call capabilities during the overnight hours in the middle of this horrific storm. So you can imagine how horrific that has been. And flash flooding will continue today, mostly in areas of Nevada and Boise and areas to the north. And as you guys know, we're not quite done yet with this storm in the mountains.

That's where some of the highest gusts will be. But again, not a ton of power outages. And how about this, Joe and Mika? Obviously, we're towards the peak of hurricane season. You guys know, and everyone on the Gulf and Florida, we're expecting an active season. We have Franklin, Gert, Emily in the Atlantic. Three storms formed this weekend. And we have a tropical system that's going to be heading towards Texas,

likely as a tropical storm in about 48 hours with no huge threats, no eons or anything like that. But we're expecting a very active next month. And our thoughts, obviously, with everyone in Southern California. All right. We'll be watching the Los Angeles area and beyond. Bill Cairns, thank you very much for that report. Good to see you. Every one of us that have qualified for that debate stage

ought to be on the stage, be willing to square off, answer the tough questions, and also draw a bright line contrast. You know, my differences with the former president go far beyond that tragic day in January. He's a coward. There's no other conclusion to come to that he's both afraid of me and he's afraid of defending his record. And if I had his record, I'd be nervous about showing up too. I mean, let's face it,, by Wednesday he's gonna be out on bail in four different jurisdictions. That really, when are we

gonna stop thinking that's legal? When are we gonna allow our country to understand again that nominating someone who's out on bail in four jurisdictions is not a winning formula. So whether you believe in the criminal prosecutions or you don't, two things. One, they're real and there's something politically we're going to have to deal with. And two, his conduct is reprehensible. Reaction from two of Donald Trump's GOP primary competitors to him saying he will not participate in Wednesday's Republican primary debate. The former president made the announcement on Truth Social yesterday, citing the latest CBS poll, which shows he is leading the GOP race by a wide margin.

While he won't be debating this week, he will be surrendering. Trump has until Friday to turn himself in to the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta in the latest indictment against him. Three senior law enforcement officials with familiar with the plan say they do not expect the former president to appear before Thursday. But plans are still being finalized. An attorney for Trump did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Let's bring in political reporter for The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Greg Blustein. Greg, do we know anything about plans being made, like special plans, that might make his surrender different than any other person that would surrender at the Fulton County Jail in Georgia?

Yeah, we know the Fulton County Sheriff has said he'll be treated like any other inmate, but he won't be put in with the general population. It won't take him eight to 10 hours to be booked and processed. The jail is a notorious place so bad that you wouldn't wish it on your worst enemies. Three inmates have died there in the last month. It's the subject of ongoing civil rights complaints of Justice Department investigation. Even the sheriff has called it a humanitarian crisis. There's crumbling walls. Folks are using, inmates are using pieces of the wall as shanks. I mean, this is not a place Trump will be spending significant time, but he will be booked there.

He will be processed there. And we do expect a mugshot there. At a political conference, a conservative political conference in Atlanta on Friday, Georgia's Republican Governor Brian Kemp said that Republicans who want to win next election need to understand it's time to move on. It's important for Republicans to be confident in the process, but it's also important for the Democrats and anybody else to be important in the process. And for people that are still out there complaining, look, you can believe whatever you want about the 2020 election. That is your right. I understand that.

I have no problem with that. But the thing is, that was three years ago. And if you're still mad about that, quit complaining about that. Sign up to be a poll worker. Be a poll watcher, get involved in the process, door knock, phone call, do something that will help us win in 2024. Complaining is not going to help us win. Oh, my Lord. Charlie Sykes, a Republican talking the way like Republicans used to talk, which is let's win.

Let's look forward. We need you to help us poll watching. We need you to help us on the phones. We need you to help us knocking on doors. Like that was so rational. And Republican, I didn't recognize it. It sounds almost quaint. Well, look, Georgia's kind of ground zero of the Trump effect, isn't it? I mean, they have lived through what happens when you allow Donald Trump's obsessions to take precedence. They lost two U.S. Senate seats on the same day on January 5th, and then they failed to get it back again in a state in which Brian Kemp wins easily for governor. So, look, I mean, they've seen this up close and personal. They've also experienced the consequences of Donald Trump's lies.

I do find it awfully interesting how different the Georgia Republican Party is from, say, the Arizona Republican Party, you know, which has been taken over by, you know, the wingnuts. But Brian Kemp is basically saying, guys, we don't need to go down this particular path. So Georgia is is always going to be interesting to watch, particularly this week, obviously, when when we see Donald Trump doing his perp walk. But by the way, what a commentary on a modern political party where the fourth indictment of this guy, the fourth indictment, the fourth arraignment, will actually possibly boost his poll numbers. I mean, that says something about the party

where character matters and the party of law and order, doesn't it? Yeah, it really does. And you looked at those numbers out of Iowa that Steve Kornacki was showing us, and his numbers went up after his fourth indictment. And so people want to take great pride in that. Fantastic. If you want to lose again, that's your business. You've been losing since 2017. Keep losing. Greg, maybe you can help us out here.

Georgia does seem to be almost a standalone Republican state, along with Utah, where you can have people stand up to Donald Trump win big in the Republican primary. But I'm I'm fascinated. Unlike most people, I'm really taken by anecdotal evidence because I found in my own political career, you know, it started adding up. My oldest son went to University of Alabama. He had friends that lived in Birmingham, and he had friends that lived in Alabama. And as 2020 approached, I said, tell me, I'm just curious how your friends are. And he goes, well, you know, it's interesting. My friends that are in Birmingham

are all voting for Donald Trump. My friends in Atlanta are all voting, you know, are all either voting for Joe Biden or they're writing in Jeb Bush or they're writing in John McCain or they're writing in anybody. But they might. It was so fascinating that the same group of friends at the University of Alabama, all Republicans, all conservatives split like that. And I didn't really think anything of it at the time. But when Georgia came in and certainly when Kemp and Raffensperger won a huge in the Republican primary, I said, man, there is a big political divide among Republicans along that Alabama Georgia line.

Yeah, Joe, those are the block of voters that have really changed this electorate in Georgia. Many of them live in the North Atlanta suburbs. And they've shown over the past few election cycles they're willing to break with the Republican Party. They used to vote reliably Republican. They voted in significant numbers for Joe Biden in 2020, for John Ossoff and Senator Warnock in 2021. And then we saw last year the same block of voters splitting their ticket. And it's something that didn't usually happen in Georgia in recent political elections. They voted for Brian Kemp and other Republican statewide constitutional officers. And they also voted for Senator Warnock's re-election over the Trump-backed candidate, Hershel Walker. I think this is the block of voters that will

continue to decide elections in Georgia going forward. Yeah. And Charlie, I'm so glad you're here. This is a this is incredible. We got somebody from Wisconsin and somebody from from Atlanta that can draw the lines. Right. A lot of those people like my my my son's Republican friends, most or they just didn't vote at all which reminds me of what ron johnson said when he was caught on tape saying no it wasn't rigged you look at donald trump and joe biden's votes there were i think he said about 55 60 000 under votes republicans voted for everybody else. They just left the presidential line unmarked. That is the Republican Party's biggest challenge. If Donald Trump wins the nomination, Republicans aren't going to vote for Joe Biden. A lot of them aren't. They're just not going to vote. No, and that undervote was a big factor in Wisconsin, as you point out. You can see this in the Milwaukee suburbs, the so-called wow counties. I mean, the Trump effect is twofold. Number one, you have an erosion in the suburbs. You also have this massive explosion of turnout in liberal areas. You know,

Joe Biden may not be the most charismatic figure. And I think there's concern about, are the voters motivated? Democrats don't need much more motivation than the prospect of Donald Trump 2.0. So you kind of have the double whammy there. But there is an extraordinary number of these voters who don't necessarily show up in, you know, you know, in some of the focus groups that they don't we don't we don't send reporters to diners to talk to independent women in Waukesha County. But there's real erosion there. And I'm not sure how they're going to vote, whether they're going to vote for Joe Biden or whether they're, as you point out, are just simply not going to vote. But in any case, you know, that's a big loss for Republicans

in swing states like Wisconsin. Founder of the conservative website, The Bulwark, Charlie Sykes, and the Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Greg Blustein. Thank you both very much. I would have never gone into Ukraine, but that was just on my relationship with him, my personality over his.

Would have never gone. I used to speak to him. It was the apple of his eye, but I said, don't ever do it. And it was, you know, tough stuff there. But he would have never done it. Tough stuff there. Tough stuff.

I was the apple of his eye. So hold on. He says, I was the apple of Putin's eye. And there was some tough stuff there. And then he said he sent love letters to Kim Jong-un. She hoarded. And then with President Xi, he talked about how brilliant and wonderful he was and thanked him for all of his transparency on COVID.

This is a guy who may not be the best judge of character on the foreign stage. The former president once again suggesting Putin would not have invaded Ukraine had he remained in office this time, claiming he was the apple of Putin's eye. But who says that? And who says he's sending love letters to Kim Jong-un? Who does that? Who does that?

As for the current president. A weird, weird dude. As for the current president. A weird, weird dude. As for the current president. And by the way, Trump members. You know, you had a faux pas earlier on the show where you didn't say Trump followers. You said Trump members. No, they're members. But I think it works.

They're followers. They're sort of members. They're members of this. They're members. Whether you want to call it a movement or a cult, it depends. Again, we're not experts on cults. These members would not notice one thing that President Biden has done. And it's okay if you don't like the Inflation Reduction Act or the Chips and Science Act

or reproductive rights executive orders. I don't know. Saving the world from World War III with strengthening NATO and really boosting America standing on the world stage. And now we're doing more as well in Asia. You don't have to like that. But to blindly hate Biden and think he should go to jail, I would argue that you are the victim of disinformation, of a constant barrage of disinformation. And you might want to look at where you are getting your information. As for the current president, on Friday, Joe Biden hosted the prime minister of Japan and

the president of South Korea at Camp David. The leaders announced South Korea, Japan and the United States will hold trilateral meetings between top government and military officials at least annually. The three nations will work with each other to respond to regional challenges and will hold joint military exercises together each year. The nations will also share with each other missile warning data on North Korea. Let's bring in right now the former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, retired four-star Navy Admiral James Trevitas. He's the chief international analyst for NBC News. And Admiral, thanks so much for being with us. Katty Kay has the first question. Katty. So, Admiral, it's just amazing to see those images of the leader of South Korea and Japan together. When I lived in Japan in the 90s, you couldn't have got them in the same room,

let alone at a summit. And I reckon that was true even five to 10 years ago. So President Biden says this is not about China, but it is about China to some extent, isn't it? It is entirely about China in a geopolitical sense. There are certainly enormous economic angles to putting this together. You're looking at the leaders of the third largest economy in the world, after ours, the first, that would be Japan, and roughly the ninth or tenth largest economy in the world. So this is an economic play alongside that military geopolitical one. But yes, Kat, you're exactly right. It very much has to do with China. And look, you know, I operated for decades in the Pacific. I would see Japanese and South Korean

warships try and kind of do exercises together under a U.S. umbrella. Never worked. There are two nations, to coin a phrase, that'll never be the apple of each other's eyes. However, they can come together and work productively. Kudos to the Biden administration here. It's smart geopolitics and smart economics. And specifically, you have so you have the South Koreans and the Japanese worried about China's saber rattling vis-a-vis Taiwan. You've got North Korea, which has launched missiles against Japan. And here you have Joe Biden. We've got the images of here convening this new kind of alliance, if you want to call it that. How much does it put

America back in the center of action in that region of the world? Oh, very, very significant. And I will put a particular here, which is we have an excellent quad alliance, if you will, between the United States, Japan, Australia and India, Katty, as you know. That's the quad, four nations that work together, share intelligence, operate in the Indian Ocean and the Western Pacific. How about we make that a quint? We bring South Korea into that mix. And when you put it alongside what's happening with U.S. nuclear submarine technology going to Australia, a new leaf in our relationships in the Philippines, which have been under a lot of stress under previous President Duterte. Now, with a new president, we are accessing those bases.

All of that fits together, not encircling or containing China. That's really not the idea. The idea here is to deter China from adventurism, claiming big chunks of the South China Sea, pushing its neighbors around. I think, again, the U.S. is in a very significant geopolitical position. That's a good thing in Asia. You know, Admiral, I've been sort of obsessed with this. We've talked, of course, about NATO and Ukraine. We've talked about the expansion of NATO

with Sweden and Finland. I mean, we have two things going at the same time. We have the flexing of NATO's muscles. It's the strongest NATO alliance we've ever seen. My gosh, I think we're doing the same thing in the Pacific, aren't we? When you look at sort of the flexing of Guam, the Philippines, Japan, South Korea, Australia, you look at all of that and just draw a line throughout Asia and see that it seems to me this is one of the most significant pivots to Asia

that we have had in a very, very long time. Certainly in peacetime, I can't think of another time that we've done what we're doing right now. Agreed. And if you look at the importance of this moment, as China claims territorial ownership of the entire South China Sea, this vast body of water that's half the size of the United States of America, we, the international community, can't allow that kind of land grab, in this case a sea grab, to stand. So how do we oppose it? We don't massively move our fleets into the center of the South China Sea. Instead, we build this glittering array of alliances like a string of pearls, geopolitically arrayed in and around East Asia. And it's smart business because no one of us, no one nation is as strong as all of us working together. And finally, these are alliances. These are friendships. In the case

of India, we don't have a formal alliance there. But over time, these relationships are going to deepen. And one we haven't mentioned that punches way above its weight, Joe, is Singapore, this tiger of Asia, another strong economy, excellent armed forces. When you put it all together, it is a powerful coalition that stands alongside the NATO alliance in Europe. I feel pretty good about all that. Americans should as well. No doubt about that. Let's let's talk about Ukraine. About six, seven, eight months ago, officials at the Pentagon quietly. So not to cross the diplomats and not to cross the White House, but were quietly telling me they were very skeptical that the Ukrainats and not to cross the White House, but were quietly telling me they were

very skeptical that the Ukrainians were going to be able to push back from Russia in their dug in positions and and said they're just not going to be able to push those Russian troops out of their country. And Putin's not going to be able to achieve his aims. They didn't say that the lines that we're seeing now are the lines that are going to be in place for as long as this war goes on. But again, six, eight months ago, if you could read through the lines, that's what their intel was telling them. Eight months later, so many more deaths. They're right. Are we looking at World War One type lines that just are going to be immovable until we have a peace agreement? Point one would be war is unpredictable.

I think the intelligence is largely accurate in describing what you were told. Let's remember, just like in sports, things can change very quickly in the flash of an eye. Last night, I watched a tennis match, finals of the lead up tournament to the U.S. Open. Spaniard Al Kareth playing against uh jokovic each of them held uh match point several times through the match until jokovic finally prevailed war is unpredictable um point two I wouldn't count out entirely a Ukrainian breakthrough they still haven't put the mass of armor to work as effectively as we would hope. But bottom line, Joe, unfortunately, this one looks on land as though it's settling down. I'll close with this. Look to the sea. You know, the admiral's going to say that.

But look at what's happening using sea drones, sinking Russian warships at sea. There's a lot of battle space that you can go around the land warfare. And then finally, as these F-16s come online over the next six months, let's hope that in the air we'll see a change. On land, you can bet on the static. In the air and at sea, I think we've got some significant changes ahead. All right. Retired four-star Navy Admiral James Stavridis, thank you as always. It's great to have you on the show.