Morning Joe - Morning Joe 8/22/23

Episode Date: August 22, 2023

Donald Trump to surrender the day after first GOP primary debate he will not participate in 

The $200,000 bond today, everything that Georgia has done so far, I'm really glad to see it because they're signaling that Georgia is not going to give Donald Trump any special treatment. The fate of Donald Trump is in his hands. If he continues to make choices now that he is out on bail in four criminal cases, it is incumbent on the prosecutors and the judge to take action. In two days, Donald Trump says he will surrender to authorities in Georgia, as he is now set to pay a $200,000 bond. We're going to discuss the harsh terms included in

Trump's agreement, the warning from the judge and the former Trump attorney set to surrender today. Well, I'm going to say also, I mean, you look at the stories and look at the details of the bond payments. And as The New York Times said yesterday, their questions, some of these people like Rudy Giuliani, maybe he'll be able to pay it. There are other fake electors. Trump promised to pay his. Jenna Ellis, others complaining about not having, you know, the money for this big case. I think they expected Donald Trump to pay. Well, I think they expected a lot of things. I think they thought, again, we've been talking about this a good bit over the past several months. I mean, they thought, we have Willie here, right? Is Willie back?

I think Willie's back. Willie's back. You know. Oh, and you look so nice, Willie. On your Instagram, you were a little scruffy. I know, I shaved. Yeah, I was on vacation. You don't shave on vacation, do you, Joe?

Yeah, I kind of liked it. This is what I love about Willie. Oh, come on. Christina. You know, the thing is, the thing is, Mika, Willie and I didn't want to tell you this, but we've been doing some work together this year. You know, documentary filmmakers have been asking us for quite some time to recount what happened to us actually in the 70s.

We talk about it a lot. We actually found a Kazakhstani production company that wants us to do Return to Istanbul. And so Willie and I have been going there alternating. I don't know where. You know, a couple of times I told you I was going here. Sorry I brought it up. We were in Istanbul. And that was like.

You were talking to Willie about Trump. Go ahead. We're reenacting scenes from our our capture and imprisonment, our refusal to leave, actually, until others were released. We were brave that day. It wasn't easy, but we were there in Istanbul for how long, Joe? A year, year and a half? Yeah. I mean, I don't like to think about it.

Be strong. I don't like to think about it, but it was the early 70s, you know? I think we can get past it. But anyway, let's talk about now. Why not? And prison now. That's our job. There you go. You know, there's so many there's so many people. Great segue. There's so many people who did so many things. I always talk about the InfoWars guy who said, oh, I can lie about Sandy Hook parents. And it won't cost no billion dollars. know a lot of lies uh about uh election

machines and they just thought they could lie to pump up ratings billion dollars later they find out they can't lie and it goes on and on and here you have people like jenna ellis and others that just thought oh i'm gonna try to steal an election rudy gi. Hey, maybe I'll get another five minutes of fame. And suddenly they're finding stuff, I'll just say, got real. There are consequences to trying to steal an election. There are consequences. And let me be more specific because I say, oh, First Amendment rights. No, they were part of a conspiracy to create fraudulent electors to replace legitimate electors who represented tens of millions of voters as the Constitution said they would. why not we'll just go along for the ride with donald trump and what we're finding now just like the january 6th people who went in and said yeah hey just because i think it's right because donald trump tells me it's right i can beat the hell out of cops no you can't which

reminds me of the story we're going to talk about today about sheriffs who say, oh, we don't have to enforce laws. I mean, I'm getting bored at this point. People thinking they can decide what the law is. Don't work that way in America, Willie. And there are consequences to these actions. Gravity returns and the price is high. And the bill is coming due right now, all the way up the chain, all the way to Donald Trump. You mentioned Rudy Giuliani. Rudy Giuliani is a guy who has done for the last several years whatever Donald Trump told

him to do, first while he was in the White House, then at the end when he was trying to get going around the country and sweating through his hair dye to try to overturn elections state by state. He now, according to many reports and The New York Times, we see right there calling Donald Trump saying, hey, I can't afford all these legal bills. Can you help me out? And guess what? He's finding out something he should have known a long time ago that a lot of other people have learned. Loyalty with Donald Trump is a one way street. Donald Trump won't pay his bills, will not even get back to him. Donald Trump's not even paying his own legal bills.

Twenty one million dollars out of the pockets of supporters of his saying, I went out and committed all these alleged crimes and I'm a billionaire. At least I say I am. But I need you small donors, supporters to pay my bills. And he will not share that money with even Rudy Giuliani, who he professes to be his closest friend, his closest advisors. Now, even Giuliani getting the cold shoulder from Donald Trump. And of course, we saw the New York Post headline, Mika, New York Post, of course, the paper record for Morning Joe. Do you have a post with you right now? I do. It's a little off topic. What did we get on the cover? Off this topic, anyway. Oh, good.

Let's see, what is it? We got the border wall over here. Hold on a second, TJ. Sweet Jesus, TJ. Floodgates are open. And then you got some about the Knicks. They've now just completely started to ignore the Yankees, Joe, which I don't even want to get into.

I've been gone a little while and we're 17 games out of first place. But there's your update on the post this morning. And and Willie, please don't pretend that I'm so stupid that I don't know what you guys are doing. Yeah. Oh, we're in last place. Guess what? So was Secretariat, you know, at the Kentucky Derby. This is all part of the plan. It's all part of the plan. And the Yankees, you see, are going to come.

They did not lose last night, by the way. They're only about five games out from the wild card. They're going to win the wild card. They're going to win the 28th World Series. They're going to break our hearts. Nobody will talk in Boston about Bucky Dent anymore. They'll talk about the miracle of 23, the New York Yankees winning it all. And this one's going to hurt really bad.

They didn't lose last night because they didn't play. I appreciate you pointing that out. And they are, in fact, nine and a half games out of the wild card and absolutely reeling. It's sad. I know you're very sad about it, Joe. Yeah. Well, all I can say is I'm glad Lemire is not here because he would jinx the whole thing and talk about it incessantly.

Yeah, okay. Along with Joe, Willie, and me, as you can see, we have U.S. special correspondent for BBC News, Katty Kaye, doing way too early duties for us this week, and Pulitzer Prize winning columnist at The Washington Post, Eugene Robinson. Good to have you both. Who does not want to talk about the Washington Nationals. We are going to get to Ken Delanian and Barbara McQuaid. We don't want to talk about the Nationals, Joe, but I got to say that Katty did a terrific job on the sports side this morning. It was absolutely spot on. It was perfect. Baseball.

She did baseball for like three minutes. It was great. When we were off camera yesterday, Jean, I confessed to Joe that when I'm reading the baseball, it may as well be German. And I do not speak German. I mean, I really try and I have to focus so hard. It's the hardest segment of the whole show

because honestly, if you don't know those words, you have no idea. What does that mean? I don't know what that means. Anyway, I apologize. I really apologize to the viewers. No, you did good. You did so good. We love having Oh my God. Patty, feel my pain.

Patty's perfection. That is how I feel four hours a day. I know what this means. Patty's perfection. That is how I feel four hours a day. I don't know what this means. Stop it. It's got to be better than the Midnight Express reference we had at the top of the show of Willie and Joe in some jail in Istanbul for a year and a half. Just whatever. Let me tell you something. Eight minutes past the hour.

It was closer to two years, but Willie and I aren't counting. It's a long time ago. We're going to get to Ken Delaney and Barbara McQuaid if they if they haven't walked off the set in just a moment on Trump's Thursday surrender. But first, a number that stood out to us from the new NBC News Des Moines Register and Mediacom poll In the survey, 41 percent of likely caucus goers say they would want Donald Trump to continue as the leader of the GOP. But an even larger number, 57 percent, say it's time for the Republican Party to find new leadership. OK, that's you know, Willie, that's about six out of 10, according to my university of Alabama. What does that mean? And that's about six out of 10, according to my university of Alabama, arts history, a major degree. That means six out of 10 Republicans in the Iowa caucus that are likely caucus goers are saying it's time to move on.

It's time to find somebody new. And yesterday we, we saw a clip from a group, a focus group out in Iowa. And there was there was a lady who basically was afraid to come on the air and admit that she was moving away from Donald Trump. She wanted the Republicans to win. She was grateful for President Trump and all he did. But it was time to move away. And she had she had said that she was afraid to come on the show, afraid to talk to the reporter. And but she had to do it because people needed to know that she was going to do it. And I for the first time, it hit me and me. Can I have sort of seen this in our own life with our own friends who supported Donald Trump.

It's almost like a reverse Bradley effect. They've moved on. They want to win again, but they don't really comfortable admitting it, especially to people that Donald Trump says wears horns and are enemies of the state, are all the people that Donald Trump has suggested that his supporters hate. So you have people quietly saying six out of 10 in Iowa, they're ready to move on. You have others starting to kind of quietly move away, hoping the rest don't pick up on it, the more hardcore members. And so, again, I agree with Ann Seltzer.

You look at those numbers. This cake is not baked yet. Yeah, and, you know, that number right there is sort of, to your point, anecdotally, what you hear, which is there are hardcore Trump supporters who aren't going anywhere. They're unmovable. The signs are up. The flags are new for twenty twenty four. It's actually a little less probably than forty one percent that we see there. But there are people who go, oh, yeah, I voted for him the first time.

I'm just so tired. I'm exhausted. Now we're going to have to go through four trials maybe during a presidential election. Can somebody else step up? Now, they're not thrilled with their options and that the ones that will be on stage tomorrow night in Milwaukee will see in that debate if anybody kind of steps up and emerges. But that poll, that Des Moines Register NBC News poll, if you read it, it's fascinating in its contradictions because you see that number right there, 60 percent almost want to move on. And yet he's got a lead of what, 25 points or something like that, 23 points over the rest of the field. And a large percentage of the likely caucus voters there say,

we don't think he really committed a crime. So try to put all those pieces together. He didn't do anything worthy of keeping him out of the White House, but we want to move on. It's hard to make sense of it other than what you're saying, which is maybe they don't want to say to a pollster from NBC News at the Des Moines Register that they've done with Trump. But maybe they are. I don't know. It's a hard one to figure out. The fact remains, though, even with that latest number that we're highlighting this morning, that he is in command of this primary right now, whether he ekes out a victory or wins big in Iowa. He didn't have to be on that debate stage because he is leading by such a wide margin in this primary right now anyway. So former President Donald Trump will travel to Atlanta on Thursday to turn himself in after he and 18 others were indicted in a wide-ranging election interference case. It's called an enterprise.

Trump announced the news himself on social media. The former president will report to the Fulton County Jail in Atlanta for booking. The county sheriff has said there will be a, quote, hard lockdown of the street when he arrives. District Attorney Fannie Willis has given all defendants until noon on Friday to voluntarily surrender. Trump's lawyers have agreed to a $200,000 bond for the case. This is for Trump himself. It's the first time he's been made to pay a cash bond, and that is just for the charges against Trump. That is $100,000 higher than other known agreements for the other co-defendants. Trump's bond agreement also includes language not seen in the others. The order directly states the former president cannot intimidate his co-defendants,

witnesses, or otherwise obstruct the case in any way. And Gene Robinson, all of this is going to be playing out on Thursday. The debate's going to be Wednesday night. It looks like, again, Donald Trump's doing everything he can to distract. He's talking about this interview that he's going to be doing on Twitter or X or whatever. But it's going to be a four day old interview. Nobody's going to be watching that. I mean, I'm sorry. Let me take that back. Some people may be watching it. They'll have to mind it somewhere else. I'm sorry. Let me take that back. Some people may be watching it. But a four day old interview is not going to be news. And I just I wonder if it's going to how much it's going to take away from the actual debate.

But this will. And Donald Trump knows that the timing the next morning after the debate will completely smother out any news from from from the debate itself. And I've got to say, though, that cuts both ways. It eclipses them. But, you know, Gene, Vaughn Hilliard, you know, when he was talking to those voters in Iowa, had a couple of voters saying, I like Donald Trump, but it's time to move on. There's too much. And so they're going to see a debate of serious people on stage the night before talking policy. And the next day they're going to see Donald Trump, you know, getting his mugshot and surrendering to authorities for the fourth time. And I just wonder if that doesn't make the exhaustion of those people that Vaughn talked to and other voters go up even higher. Well, you know, it would be fascinating if that sort of flicks the switch or if that really has an impact,

that contrast that we're going to see tomorrow night and then Thursday morning. Big questions. How many people are going to tune in to the debate absent Donald Trump? Fox News is certainly upset that he's not going to participate because they were counting on the ratings bump. So that's one thing we'll see. And then you're absolutely right that someone could really shine in that debate. Someone could wipe the floor with the other contenders. Let's say Tim Scott has a great night or something like that, and the next morning, it's just — it's gone. That news cycle has about two or three hours in it, and then

it's all Trump all the time. And that is a weapon that he is going to deploy throughout this campaign, his ability to draw attention, his ability to draw the television cameras. And now he's got four criminal proceedings in which to, you know, to add to his repertoire of look at me, look at me. So, you know, this is going to be our year. This is what it's going to be like. Trump going, look at me, look at me. And Katty Kay, one person who is going to love how this is all setting up is Chris Christie, who now in a poll out yesterday, Chris Christie moving into second place in New Hampshire,

ahead of Stesantis and some others. But Chris Christie is going to absolutely love this. And right now, if 60 percent of people in the Republican Party want to move on in Iowa, and let's say it's only 40 percent around the rest of the country, I suspect it's probably higher. Chris Christie has the ability, with a forceful performance to start consolidating some of those one percents, those two percents, those three percents. And people may see him as an alternative if he's already in second place in Iowa. Again, good bit behind Donald Trump.

But maybe some consolidation comes there because he's going to say, hey, here we're talking about your future. Tomorrow, Donald Trump is going to be indicted for the fourth time for obsessing about his past. It's a pretty strong argument, Chris Christie, the former prosecutor, could make. Look, Chris Christie is going to be the only one pretty much on stage who might Pence may do it a little bit, but he's going to be the only one who's going to take the fight directly to Donald Trump. It's still hard to see how he gets out of the single digits that he's in at the moment. I mean, do Iowa voters reward him for that? Do they think they still want somebody who is politically pure? I mean, the other interesting thing in that NBC News Des Moines Register poll was how many Iowans are saying that electability is not their primary concern at the moment.

What they want is somebody who represents their values. And for the moment, they still seem to think that Donald Trump is that person. I mean, it's going to be fascinating to see whether this double whammy, you're right, of the back to back of the Wednesday night debate followed by the Thursday night arraignment. Is that is that the moment that, that you know flips things back to normal I've just been writing a piece for the BBC about how this election is like Alice in Wonderland it's like what's up is down and what's down is up and at some point you think that normal service is going to be resumed and the weights that Donald Trump has against him might start to pull him down and maybe maybe voters in our in New Hampshire

will look at an Iowa will look look at, you know, the seriousness of the content on Wednesday night. And there will be policy discussions on Wednesday night, which this country desperately needs. And then we'll look at the arrangement on Thursday morning and then decide, you know, actually that Donald Trump is, you know, is too exhausting and has too much baggage for them. He's so far ahead in the polls, it's hard to see that route, but maybe it's just possible. Let's talk about some of those weights on Donald Trump with former U.S. Attorney Barbara McQuaid and NBC News justice and intelligence correspondent

Ken Delaney. And good morning to you both. Ken, I'll start with you about this deal, this bond deal for the former president with the Fulton County District Attorney, Fawnie Willis, $200,000, twice the other defendants. But also more specifically, Ken, these rules set out about threats and the cost of threats to Donald Trump if he goes after a co-defendant, if he goes after a witness, if he tampers with the jury on and on down the list. What did you make of this? How unusual are some of these conditions of bond? Well, Willie, what we know is that we didn't see those conditions imposed on any of the other co-defendants so far. And it was really striking. I mean, other judges in some

of these other cases have verbally conveyed to Donald Trump or his lawyers that he shouldn't threaten or try to intimidate witnesses or potential jurors. This lays it out in black and white in very clear terms. He's not allowed to threaten or intimidate co-defendants, witnesses, potential jurors, or really anybody else. And specifically, it says, including by posts or reposts of material that others have posted on social media. That language included really struck a lot of people as very explicit, putting Mr. Trump in a box. Now, the issue here, of course, is how does the judge enforce it? Because there's a lot of people that look at this and say Donald Trump would love nothing more than to have a situation where a judge is bringing him down to Atlanta, this judge,

and potentially seeking to jail him because he would just make another appeal to his supporters and raise more money and declare himself a First Amendment martyr. So it's going to be really difficult for the judge in this case and all the other cases to try to decide where the line is between Donald Trump's First Amendment rights to political speech as he's running for president and tweets or other rhetoric that crosses a line into intimidation or threats. That's just a tough situation. And most experts believe they're going to give him a lot of latitude. And just one other separate point. What's happening Thursday is not an arraignment. It's a surrender only. He's going to be booked into the Fulton County Jail. That's what I think makes this different from all of the other situations, which were both sort of arraignments and surrenders.

And I think to the public, it got lost and it got translated as Donald Trump's appearing in court. On Thursday, Donald Trump is appearing in the Fulton County Jail, where he'll be fingerprinted and mugshotted. That's it. And so that's going to be a striking image for the former president of the United States at a local jail. And the area around that jail is going to be locked down when the former president arrives there tomorrow. So, Barb, that was my question for you about penalties. Let's say he violates some of these conditions of bond. He posts something, some threat or even repost something to one of the witnesses in this case. What realistically will happen to him? Well, the judge has a few options.

Some of it is a warning, which is probably the first step. The ultimate penalty, of course, would be to revoke the bond. The prosecutors know what they're doing here by negotiating this term. They see what is happening in all of these other cases where Donald Trump is posting these things. They saw what happened in this case, where he made disparaging statements about one of the witnesses, the former lieutenant governor of Georgia. And so they're trying to stop that. But as Ken just said, I think it's going to be very difficult for a judge to use the ultimate hammer, which is to revoke the bond and jail Donald Trump awaiting trial. But I think Donald Trump doesn't want to mess around and find out because that would be such a devastating consequence. I agree that maybe he wants to be a martyr for the First Amendment, but he also very

much wants, I think, his liberty. You know, being jailed in the Rice Street jail while he awaits trial is certainly no picnic. And so I think we'll see things that come close to the line. I think he will try to push a warning before he goes any further because it will be a difficult decision for a judge to revoke the bond. But if a judge is really doing his job, he is going to see that his job is to enforce the law and to manage this case regardless of any political consequences that might come. Ken, do you know um in terms of process i know we saw the actual indictment live uh are cameras going to be in there and then the other question is what do we know about the other co-defendants making bond yeah the last i heard we don't expect cameras to to record the booking process that's

generally not done i could be wrong about that but that's the last I heard. We know that, for example, among the other co-defendants, John Eastman has posted a $100,000 bond. And I believe there's a couple others. I'm not fully up to speed, but they all have to surrender before Friday. So we expect to see all of them one by one. As you mentioned, we saw one of the co-defendants, Jenna Ellis, complaining that Donald Trump is not taking care of her legal fees or helping out to defray her costs in any way. And you may see that sentiment uttered by some of these other people. Things are starting to get very serious for these people that allegedly engage in this conspiracy.

Mika. Barbara, the post that Donald Trump put out on Truth Social talking about Fannie Willis and going to possibly Russia, Russia, Russia, because they think he's going to skip jail. I mean, how close does that fall within the kinds of restrictions that have been placed on him? Is that the kind of thing he can post, or is that already sailing a little close to the wind? I think it's close, but you'll notice that the terms really are about witnesses in the case and about the public and about inciting civil unrest. And so I think the judge, I think the prosecutor might be fair game,

but in terms of criticizing their motives and other kinds of things. But when it comes to threats, I think it's going to be different. So I imagine we will see Donald Trump skate as close to the line as possible. I think he knows he's going to get a long leash. He knows he's going to get at least a warning. And so I see him going after the prosecutor instead of the witnesses because she's a public official. And so, you know, First Amendment rights when it comes to public officials offer a lot of leeway. Former U.S. Attorney Barbara McQuaid and NBC's Ken Delaney, and thank you both very much for being on this morning.

Or another new number just released from the new NBC News Des Moines Register Media Comp survey shows 51% say they believe Donald Trump's claims that the 2020 election was stolen from him. 41% say they don't believe it. 8% say they're just not sure. Belief in the so-called big lie is most prevalent among Iowans making less than seventy thousand dollars a year, with 69 percent of them trusting Trump, 62 percent of Iowa evangelicals and 59 percent of those without college degrees also believe the election was still. So, Willie, we can you know, this is the sort of. I just don't know how much to pay attention to this. I mean, I don't want to I don't want to freak anybody out at home. So please, please hold on to whatever you're holding on to. But there was a point in 2005 where 60 percent of Democrats thought 9-11 was an inside job. It dissipates. All right.

We get the moon landing conspiracies. We got, you know, the JFK conspiracies. Different timing, though, with social media. The JFK Jr. conspiracy. Technology. I mean, it's a little bit different, Joe. It's different, and yet it's not different. Lily knew where I was going there.

I mean, the thing is, again, so 51 percent of Republicans think that maybe the election was OK. That to me is ground noise. Ninety percent. We got an issue going. Fifty one percent. Again, the question is, again, this reverse Bradley effect. You know, if you get a call and you're in Iowa and you feel like the media has been like talking down to your whole life and you go, hi, I'm from New York City. Do you think that the election was stolen from Donald Trump?

You know, or if you're from even even the Des Moines Register polling outfit in your and there's just a skepticism. So I think my point is and Willie's trying to figure out what my point is. I'm still actually I think the 51 percent is actually a lower number than I would have expected at this point in the middle of indictments from people that Donald Trump say are the devil coming after him. And I just think there's this rising exhaustion. And at the same time, I see other polls that show while 51 percent may think this, a majority of Iowans, I believe I saw said, let's stop talking about the 2020 election. I'm hearing that from Republicans. That's almost that's a 70, 75 percent proposition. If they say, sure,

it was don't they go, let's not talk about 2020 anymore. Let's talk about winning in 2024. Yeah, no, I think you're right about that. And I think the problem is two things. Number one, Donald Trump is a different vessel than we had in any of those other examples that you laid out, meaning there are a lot of people in this country, a lot of Republicans who take what he says as gospel, almost literally in that poll that we talked about yesterday, where they believe what Donald Trump says more than their family and their friends or their pastor, all the people we trusted growing up, our teachers and our coaches. That's a guy, whatever he says goes for many people in this country. That's one thing. And then I think the other question is, what's the alternative? If it's not Donald Trump, everyone who is exhausted,

and I agree there are a lot of Republicans exhausted by Donald Trump. Where do they go? Maybe they thought it was Ron DeSantis for six months now. It's been I don't know. Maybe he's not what we thought he was. Gets another shot tomorrow night in Milwaukee to impress some people. So we'll see if the people who are exhausted can find somewhere else to go. Let's talk more about that with senior columnist at The Daily Beast, Matt Lewis. Matt, your latest piece is entitled Trump voters don't believe in polls or the media only in Trump. So I'll let you explain the headline a little more and help us suss out what we're seeing in these polls, which is that a lot of people don't think he committed a crime,

but also don't think he committed a crime. They still support him. And yet 60 percent almost in this poll in Iowa say we hope somebody else emerges. Right. Well, so I basically I looked at these three prominent polls that have happened recently. One is this AP poll that basically showed 53 percent of Americans, not Republicans, but general election voters, would not vote for Trump under any circumstance. Then I looked at the CBS News YouGov poll and the NBC News Iowa Des Moines Register poll. And basically what I concluded is if you believe those three polls, and that's the caveat, essentially Donald Trump can't win a general election, but he also can't lose a primary. And this is unusual, right?

Because normally, if you are perceived to be unelectable in a general election, that would preclude you from winning the primary. But of course, what we've seen is that Republicans, at least according to these recent polls, are not really persuadable. They're not really movable. They don't care about the electability issue. I think only 29 percent prize the ability to beat Joe Biden when it comes to making their their primary decision. As you just noted, they're not not only will they not listen to pollsters or the establishment media, they won't listen to their families as opposed to Donald Trump. They won't listen to their clergy. So it's really hard to imagine a scenario where Donald Trump, again, you so long that Iowa voters are deeply religious.

Oh, they're really Christian evangelicals. Oh, they're the most. If you go to Iowa, they love Jesus so much. We've been hearing that since Pat Robertson won in 1988. Or maybe he was in second. I don't know. Maybe he won. I don't remember. But we won. I don't remember.

But we've been hearing, they're so righteous. Oh. Now what do we find out? They trust a four-time indicted reality TV show host who a New York judge called a rapist who bragged about sexually molesting women saying that it's the way it's always been and maybe that's a good thing. He doesn't know

whether it's good or not. Twice as many of these voters porn star pay off illegal. I'm talking like I'm talking like 41 one star a off illegal but now twice as many of them basically say we trust that guy over a minister of Jesus Christ yeah and seen go G no I mean it's just a baby what those numbers suggest is that a whole lot of people in Iowa are going to hell, right?

They're not going to be redeemed there. Gene's joking, Iowa people. It's incredible. That is an incredible figure from that poll that people trust Trump over their clergy. And it does make you wonder, like, what do you—how are you thinking of your Christianity? How are you thinking of your faith to get to that point? I, you know, Matt, I think you're you make an incredible point there. So can we sort of write the story of this election already?

I mean, Donald Trump wins the primary and Donald Trump loses the general. I mean, that that seems to be what all the numbers are suggesting. Is there any way the Republican Party can avoid this? Well, you know, I think what Joe's been talking about this morning is the possibility, right, that up until now, and I think in the last two elections, Donald Trump would really underperform among pollsters. People would be shy about admitting they didn't want to admit they were going to vote for Donald Trump, but then they would. So the question is, has that reversed now? Is it possible that Republican voters want to tell that Republican voters want to tell pollsters, want to tell the media

they're supporting Trump, but secretly they're open to another possibility? And so this brings us, I guess, to teasing the debate on Wednesday night. I mean, this is an opportunity. Donald Trump will not be there. So Ron DeSantis, who is, I think, clearly in second place nationally, has an opportunity to, I don't wanna say close the deal, but how about open the deal,

to make himself a viable alternative? Can he do it? I am skeptical. But the ball's in his court. Yeah, the ball's in his court. I mean, he's going to have to, I don't know, between now and tomorrow night, get a personality. I'm serious. Well, I mean, you know, there's a lot to be said. I'm not joking at all. Blocking and tackling.

I would say. Kind of rude. I'd say actually talk about issues that actually matter, matter to make kind Republicans. Yeah. Try not to try not to yell at people and be rude. Try not to focus on these really, really, really wedge issues in the state of Florida that don't mean anything to the rest of the country. Try to explain your six week abortion ban. I mean, well, if Ron DeSantis is the next guy, that's we got a we got a long way to go. I mean, I don't think Ron will be coming to you for for for debate prep.

Fortunately for him. Well, maybe fortunately for him in an Iowa Republican debate. But still, nice. Be nice. I can. It's a good place to start. I agree. Senior columnist for The Daily Beast, Matt Lewis, we thank you so much for joining us and thank you for bringing Winston and Joan along. Always great for the ride. So. So, yeah, by the way, Willie, Bob Dole won, I'm told, in 1988. But I think Pat Robertson was in was in second place. But again, you know, the funny thing is I can almost hear people mocking us for saying that people secretly don't want Trump to win, but they won't say it publicly. But if those people were to mock us, this is what's so rich about it. They're the ones quietly saying it off camera. Politicians will go on camera and be all Trumpy, then go off camera and say, oh, my gosh, we're going to lose. You have people that are on other cable news networks talking Trump, Trump. They get off and it's like they think he's a nightmare. I just I really it was different when he was president. I must say, I just I don't talk

to any people are here from any people who are pushing Donald Trump on the air that say the same thing off the air anymore. They know it's a disaster. That was one of the amazing things that came out and all that discovery with a voting company is what all of the people that were the biggest Trump supporters on air, how they were trashing him off the air. But again, not a shock because we've been hearing that from politicians and cable TV news hosts for seven years now. Yeah. And the Republicans, especially I'm thinking of leadership in the Congress, have had so many chances to be leaders and to accept one of the many, many off ramps given to them by Donald Trump, whether it was on the day of January 6th. Lindsey Graham is the prime example, beating the lectern, saying, I'm done, I'm out, and then changing his mind when he got chased through the airport by people calling him a traitor. Kevin McCarthy with

these indictments. What about Hunter Biden? They've had chances to walk away from Donald Trump and have taken none of them. Although, as you point out, if you talk to them privately, they roll their eyes. They're sick of it. But they fear not even him so much. They fear his voters. If they cross him, maybe they'll lose their own power and lose their own seats. So here we are with people privately protesting Donald Trump and saying, won't somebody else come along and save us? Please, Glenn Youngkin. We keep hearing the Glenn Youngkin example, the Virginia governor, as if there's somebody else out there. It's all wish casting, it sounds to me, somebody else to save them from Donald Trump.

But boy, right now, it sure doesn't look like it. They keep sending flares up actually over the governor's mansion in Richmond. We were at we were at an event last night and it was like the name Youngkin is Westford. The great hope is waiting for the great hope. I'm not so sure. The war in Ukraine nears the year and a half mark this week. New reporting from The Washington Post is highlighting Ukraine's efforts to effectively deploy the cluster bombs provided by the United States. Speaking to Ukrainian soldiers, The Post reports the cluster bombs have proven useful in warding off Russian advances. As one soldier puts it, the main benefit of the cluster bombs is that the enemy is now very scared to go on assault. Joining us now with more on this story,

national security reporter for The Washington Post, John Hudson. John, good morning. So obviously, just the very transfer of these cluster bombs and these munitions from the United States to Ukraine was controversial. A good number of Democrats voted against it in the defense bill. These are bombs that have been outlawed in many countries around the world. How are they being used and what is their significance on the battlefield? Yeah, that's exactly right. This is the most controversial arms transfer of Biden's presidency. So when I went to Ukraine with my colleagues and went to the front lines, we wanted to learn how they're being used. They're having a important impact when it comes to the defense of Ukraine. Right now, the Russians are pushing in northern and eastern Ukraine.

And when the Ukrainians are firing these against Russian infantry, it basically stops the assault. You have Russians immediately seeking hard cover. And it's playing an important role in helping the Ukrainians preserve force power. It's also helping Ukrainians shoot into dense forests where they can't exactly see where their target is and kill Russian infantry that are exposed. It's also effective against unarmored vehicles and has caused a number of Russian convoys to scatter and scamper in different levels of disarray. It's also having an important impact on helping the Ukrainians continue the offensive and

stretch it out. As you know, the Ukrainians are low on artillery, and this supply is helping them beef up the amount of artillery that they have. At the same time, there are concerns about what the unexploded ordinances will do when, God willing, this conflict comes to an end at some point. As you know, these bomblets can last for years and years. And one of the artillery brigades I spoke to said that there wasn't really an accounting practice in place. That obviously contradicts with what officials in Kiev and Washington have said, which was that the condition that the U.S. would send these cluster bombs was

that they would be well accounted for. So we've got a number of different ways that these are being used and some continuing concerns about how they might impact everyday Ukrainians when the war comes to an end. Yeah, John, I mean, the reality is it's very hard for the Americans that's really, you know, stalled the Ukrainians in their offensive push, is that the Russians just had that much time to lay, you know, miles long areas with mines and that's stopping the Ukrainians get through that land. It's a great point. The minefields have been devastating to blunting the Ukrainian offensive, and it's why they haven't advanced as far as they can. These webs of trenches and mines, the difficulty with cluster munitions is that they're more effective against infantry that are exposed and up and around, as opposed to infantry that are burrowed into trenches.

And so they've had some effect on blowing up mines that are in fields. But that hasn't been the main purpose and it hasn't been the main benefit. It's been more complicated. Really, the advantage is hitting exposed infantry. And that's why you continue to have problems with the Ukrainians pushing further south and cutting that important land bridge to Crimea, even though they have this large arsenal of U.S.-provided cluster munitions. John, step back for a moment and just overall from your trip, has the Ukrainian offensive stalled or is it making progress? Will we at the end of it say Ukraine took back a significant amount of its territory, made progress toward cutting this land bridge or not? Eugene, these were very difficult discussions with troops near the front lines.

They are exhausted. They have been fighting for a very long time. Many of them haven't had breaks in a very long time. There is very strong belief in the importance of their cause. They're defending the Ukrainian homeland. But it is not having a breakthrough. And you just can't deny that that is the case. There was the hope that the Ukrainian forces were going to push far south, capture towns such as Melitopol and really prevent these Russian supply routes that are really feeding this invasion, eliminating those supply routes. They haven't been able to do that. The offensive is not over yet, but it is

not going as far as Ukrainians hoped it would at this point in time. National security reporter for The Washington Post, John Hudson, thank you very much for your reporting and insight this morning.