Morning Joe - Morning Joe 8/24/22

Episode Date: August 24, 2022

Democratic win in bellwether N.Y. House district showcases power of abortion rights message

With what appears to be left in this district, that is an incredibly steep hill to climb for Molinera. To make up basically 3,300 votes with what we know to be left in this district right now. Pat Ryan, the Democrat, is in a... There it is. NBC News has just called it. Pat Ryan, the Democrat, has been elected to Congress in a special election from New York's 19th congressional district. He defeats Republican Mark Molinaro. There it is. Steve Kornacki at the big board late last night, the moment NBC News called a hotly contested special election for the Democrat. It's a swing district that went for Donald Trump

in 2016 and then Joe Biden in 2020. Steve joins us in just a moment to break down how Democrats messaging on abortion rights is now recasting the conversation about that once expected red wave this fall. Also from New York, victory for two key figures in the first impeachment of Donald Trump, the chairman of the Judiciary Committee, Jerry Nadler, handily defeating longtime Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney after the powerful allies were forced to run for the same seat. And in a crowded primary field in New York's 10th District, former federal prosecutor Daniel Goldman won, unseating incumbent Mondaire Jones. Down in Florida, Democrats have placed their bets now on a former Republican governor,

Charlie Crist, to challenge the state's current Republican governor, Ron DeSantis, in the general election. And it will be former Orlando police chief, Congresswoman Val Demings, who will try to unseat Republican Marco Rubio in the United States Senate. Both Charlie Crist and Val Demings will be our guests on the show a short time from now. Good morning. Welcome to Morning Joe. It is Wednesday, August 24th. I'm Willie Geist. With us, we've got MSNBC contributor Mike Barnicle, former aide to the George W. Bush White House and State Department's Elise Jordan, professor at Princeton University, Eddie Glaude Jr., and White House editor for Politico, Sam Stein.

Also with us, congressional reporter for The Guardian. Hugo Lowell, some big developments with the FBI's search of Mar-a-Lago, including a new letter from the National Archives revealing former President Trump took more than 700 pages of classified documents with him to his Florida home upon leaving office, including some containing the highest level of top secret information. We'll get into all of that with Hugo in just a moment. A great group assembled to talk about everything going on this morning. Let's begin over at the big board. Not quite sure if he left. He's still there. NBC News national political correspondent Steve Kornacki. Steve, good morning. Good to see you. If you're still up, thanks for the extra coffee this morning. Why exactly are we so focused on this 19th district, a special

election in upstate New York? Yeah, Willie, good morning to you. Well, the reason is because we've been asking a question for the last two months, and I think certainly triggered by that Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, but also for some other factors. We've been asking the question of whether the political climate broadly, nationally has shifted away from one where the Republicans were in a strong, maybe even dominant position heading into the midterm elections to one where it's perhaps more neutral. And Democrats have opportunities at the Senate and potentially House level that, frankly, not even Democrats thought they would have a few months ago. So the backdrop for this special election, you can see the final result here. Pat Ryan, the Democrat, going to defeat Mark Molinaro,

the Republican, the margin just over two points. This is a classic swing district that Ryan did this in. In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden had carried this by two points. Take it back to 2016. Donald Trump won here by seven. If I could extend this further out to 2012, you'd see that Barack Obama won this district in 2012. And this is a district that didn't just have that by Obama, Trump, Biden pattern in between in the midterm elections. This is typically featured the kind of backlash that favors the out of power party. What I mean by that is Obama won in 2012 here. In 2014, it elected a Republican congressman. Trump won in 2016. In 2018, it elected a Democratic congressman. Biden won in 2020. You get a special election. You look at the national polls. Joe Biden's approval rating

is in the low 40s. Voters are very sour when it comes to their mood on the economy, when it comes to their mood on inflation, optimism about the future of the country. These are all supposed to be the basic ingredients that create a very favorable climate for the opposition party. And Mark Molinaro was considered to be one of the strongest recruits that Republicans had in a race like this. He's a county executive in Dutchess County. That's one of the biggest parts of the district.

He ran for governor of New York in 2018, actually carried this same district by double digits over Andrew Cuomo when he ran for governor in 2018. And Republicans poured a lot of money, a lot of time and a lot of resources into trying to get this victory for Molinaro and to make a statement that they were in a position of strength heading into the midterm. Instead, as we say, Pat Ryan ends up exceeding the Joe Biden number and winning this district outright. That's not a result you're supposed to see if and when a major wave is forming. And if you put this in broader context, why I say we've been asking this question about whether the national political climate is changing. This is the most dramatic data point we have that I think it is. But just take a look at what's been happening over the last few months.

And I can draw a line right here. These are other House special elections that have been playing out this spring and this summer. And I draw this line because this is where on the calendar the Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade fell. You see, just before that decision in South Texas, there had been a special election. It's a district that Biden had carried by four points. We were talking a lot about this heavily Hispanic district. There'd been a swing towards Republicans. And in fact, the Republican candidates actually won by a margin of four points in that district. That's where we were before the Supreme Court decision on Roe v. Wade. Here are the four special elections that have taken place now since that decision. And what you could see is coming into last night, you had two, one in Nebraska, one in Minnesota,

that had been held in districts that Trump won by double digits. The Republicans won them, but by about 10 points less, six points less than Trump did. Democrats were saying these were signs of new momentum for them after that Supreme Court decision, because their candidates had so overperformed Joe Biden. It's a sign that there was more enthusiasm for Democrats. And then you got last night a really clean test, a clean test in a classic swing district. Democrats won it outright. By the way, there was another special election in New York last night. Didn't get a lot of resources, didn't get a lot of money, a lot of attention here. It's a district that's really just kind of going away, changing in the fall. But they had a special election anyway. Trump won this

district by double digits. A Republican won last night. But again, movement of five points in the Democratic direction. We've had four special elections held since that Supreme Court decision. In all four of them, the needle has moved in the Democrats direction and the Democrats have won the swing district outright. And I just think it's dramatic if you compare that to 2018. This is what the this is what special elections in the run up to a wave election look like. This is 2018. Trump is president. This is the blue wave year. Democrats end up winning 40 House seats. And I mean, look what you were seeing in special elections in 2017 and 2018. Republicans, Democrats were outperforming by 20 points, by 14 points, by 16 points. Six of these eight special elections, Democrats overperformed

their presidential their presidential level by double digits. So you could see in the special elections heading into 2018 where things were going because Democrats across the board were just overperforming so much. You look at, again, what I just showed you there in terms of the special elections that we've seen since that Supreme Court decision, they don't fit that pattern at all. So when Democrats start talking about their voters being much more motivated now in the wake of that Supreme Court decision, the political environment changing this district here, this the 19th district in New York is just a great example. And if that one other thing I could just point to, you see there are two counties here that went blue in this district.

It's Ulster County and it's Columbia County. They're both pretty good sized counties. Ulster is the biggest in the district. Here's another measure of Democratic enthusiasm. These two counties, the only two blue counties last night in this district in the 2020 presidential election, they accounted for 36 percent of all votes cast in this district. Last night, they accounted for 42 percent of all votes cast in this district. So Democrats just proportionally squeezed a lot more votes out of the core Democratic areas of this district. That's what we've been seeing in these other special elections where the Democrats have been outperforming in the Democratic-leaning,

Democratic-friendly areas. Energy, enthusiasm, turnout among Democrats that dwarfs energy, enthusiasm and turnout among Republicans. Republicans ran up good numbers in these rural areas here. You see red, but they weren't getting the proportionate level of turnout. That speaks to exactly what Democrats contend has happened nationally since the Supreme Court ruling, that their voters are now more motivated in a way they weren't before. And that, frankly, in a way that Republicans, if you look at these special elections, that Republicans may not be right now. All of that just raises and underscores the question we have been asking now for the last few months about whether you talk about the Senate, you talk about weak Republican recruitment in the Senate, and whether Democrats might actually be able to hold on to the control of the United States Senate,

that tenuous control they have right now. And honestly, you start to look at results like this, it would not take much for the Republicans to pick up the House. They only need to pick up a small handful of seats. But if you're a Democrat and you want to say there's a scenario where your party actually maintains control of the House somehow this November, this is exactly the kind of result. And these over the last few months are exactly the kinds of results that you want to be seeing to have an actual chance of putting the House into play.

That is a great breakdown of what happened last night there in that district. Eddie, you always run the risk of extrapolating too much based on one race in one county in a special election where the Democrat won by about 5,000 votes. But, but, but, the focus from the Democrat, Ryan, in this race was on Roe v. Wade, on abortion. Really, that was his focus. The focus from the Republican, Molinaro, was on the perceived weakness of Joe Biden on the economy, on abortion. Really, that was his focus. The focus from the Republican Molinaro was on the perceived weakness of Joe Biden on the economy, on inflation. And at least in this district, turnout energy was behind Democrats and it got them over the finish line. I think it bodes

well for the party. I mean, not to not to extrapolate too much, not to get too excited. But you combine this with what we saw in Kansas. You combine this with what we see in the latest polling data that the threat to democracy is actually front of mind, top of mind for folk. There is a sense in which folk understand that the very fabric of the country is fraying. And that should be the concern. And we see this in these elections at this moment. Absolutely. I think he's right. I would caution on a couple of levels. One, the bias of geography. This is a Northeast district. It's a little different than the rest of the country.

You're right about the volatility in this country, though, Eddie. You can feel it. You can sense it out there. People wondering if things are just coming apart. The turnout is important. If they can motivate Democrats, if Democrats can be motivated to go to the polls, as Steve just pointed out, then they have a shot. But I would say pump the brakes on the rest of it.

Well, I want to go back to Steve if we can and talk about District 11. Go ahead. Steve, can we talk about District 11? Can you just, on your board, just pull it up? Not that the outcome of either primary is really surprising, but you look at the numbers. Staten Island, you've got Max Rose against Nicole Malliotakis. And Democratic turnout at the end of the day actually was 3,000 more votes than what she got to win. You're looking here. Yeah, this is Max Rose, the former congressman who's

seeking the comeback, was widely expected to win the Democratic primary there. This is the incumbent, Nicole Meliotakis, Republican turnout here. Again, she was expected to win the to win renomination here. But, yeah, in just in terms of turnout. Absolutely. It's a consistent story here in this district, several others in New York that we looked at. Not as much in Florida last night to the point that Mike is making in Florida last night. I think Republicans probably feel good about the turnout that they saw relative to the turnout that Democrats produced. But I think, like I said, what we were showing you in that 19th district special election saw that in Nebraska. Saw that in Minnesota. There are pockets of those

two districts that were similar to Ulster County, I think demographically similar to Ulster County, demographically similar to Columbia County, where, again, the turnout level and the enthusiasm level for Democrats was kind of through the roof. I just there are a couple of examples. There are two, really, since the Great Depression of a president's party defying history and actually picking up House seats in midterm elections. They were in 1998. Bill Clinton was president and there was a backlash to the Republican drive to impeach him. And it was in 2002. George W. Bush was president. It was a year after 9-11. And there was still this swell of sort of patriotic pride that really was behind George W. Bush and translated into midterm success for Republicans.

Both of those presidents had approval ratings well in excess of 60 percent on Election Day. That's the missing piece here for Democrats. Joe Biden's approval rating is still very low. It's in the low 40s. He's not in Clinton 98. He's not at Bush O2 levels. That's why Republicans have felt so optimistic all year. But you know what? When you look at all of the other years, the non 98 in the non O2 years, that special election in New York 19 is the kind of election a Republican would be winning. Those special elections in Nebraska and Minnesota are not the kinds of special elections where Democrats would be making inroads. So it just suggests the possibility that there's a very different dynamic in this midterm election than you would expect when you look at a president who has the kind of approval rating that Joe Biden has. I think there are some variables here that raise questions we aren't used to. We aren't used to raising when it comes to midterm elections. We'll see if this tells us as much as a lot of people think it does.

We're going to talk to Sean Patrick Maloney, who won his race last night, but also, of course, is the chair of the DCCC. And they're excited about what happened in that 19th district. NBC's Steve Kornacki showing no signs of fatigue after a long night. He never does. Steve, thanks so much. We appreciate it. Sam Stein, what did you see last night as you watched that,

not just the race in that 19th special election, but across the country, down in the state of Florida as well? What are your takes from last night? Well, first off, let me also salute Steve for his service. A great American. He's already back in his hyperbaric chamber. He's got the IVs with the caffeine in right now. You know, when the question I was going to I was going to pose to him. But what I've been curious about is how much of this is Democratic enthusiasm versus how much of this is absence of Trump supporter enthusiasm at this juncture. You know, Donald Trump obviously is sucking up all the energy on the grassroots side.

And you can see it in the fundraising statistics. All the low dollar money is going to Trump's Save America committee. You do not see that for Republican candidates as much. They're struggling on a fundraising level. And that suggests to me that a lot of the grassroots energy in the Republican Party is geared towards a singular figure who is not on the ballot in the midterms, and that's Donald Trump. And when that's the case, you know, that adds another variable to the election, in that maybe Republican candidates running for these House

elections or in these high-profile Markey Senate elections are going to have a little bit more difficulty turning out their base. And certainly after Roe was overturned, Democrats will not have that same problem. So, you know, I'm wondering if that dynamic is also at play in what we're seeing here in places like New York 19. Yeah. Interested in Molinaro in New York 19 tried to keep the focus away from Donald Trump, away from the election of 2020 and January 6 and all that, and just talk about the economy he lost last night narrowly. Let's talk about Donald Trump. A new letter from the National Archives reveals the former president took more than 700 pages of classified documents to his Florida home upon leaving office, including some containing the highest level of top secret information. The letter made public yesterday by the National Archives was sent in May

by the acting U.S. archivist to a lawyer for the former president. In it, the archivist shoots down Trump's efforts to claim executive privilege over the documents in order to block them from being shared with the FBI and Justice Department. She writes this, quote, The question in this case is not a close one. The executive branch here is seeking access to records belonging to and in the custody of the federal government itself, not only in order to investigate whether those records were handled in an unlawful manner, but also, as the National Security Division explained, to conduct an assessment of the potential damage resulting from the apparent manner in which these materials were stored and transported and to take any necessary remedial steps. She went on, I have therefore decided not to honor the former president's protective claim of privilege. The 700 pages of classified information mentioned in the letter only

includes those records seized in January. Government officials would make two more visits to the resort after that letter was sent to recover more documents. It is unclear how many pages of classified information were found during those trips. Congressional reporter for The Guardian, Hugo Lowell, is with us, as we mentioned. So, Hugo, you've been covering this so closely. What you see in this letter is the National Archives trying to go through its process, trying to take the conventional and routine steps it does to get these documents and saying, you guys have delayed and delayed and delayed for so long. We don't recognize your argument.

We want the documents. Effectively, yeah. And I think if you look at the numbers, they're just staggering, right? 100 pages of classified documents, 700 pages. I mean, the numbers are just crazy. And then I think that really gives us an accounting of the volume and the sensitivity of the kind of documents they pulled out of Mar-a-Lago. And that was in January. That was only like the first request. Like, you know, they went back in two other separate times. But the one thing that did stand out to me is this kind of potential obstruction. It really lays out the ways that the Justice Department had to go to get the documents.

And when you read that in tandem with Trump's filing on Monday, you really see this picture develop of how the Justice Department was thwarted at every effort to try and get these documents back and the fact that obstruction was listed on the search warrant when they executed that at Mar-a-Lago, I think that's really significant and ties everything together. Hugo, I understand that you are not the dean of the Harvard Law School, but perhaps you could help us out here with the issue of executive privilege. How can the former president assert executive privilege when, A, all of these documents belong to the United States government and the archives, and B, he is no longer an executive?

So I think if you talk to people in Trump's orbit and the way they reason this is, if you look at the Supreme Court present, if you look at Nixon versus GSA, Trump v. Thompson more recently, no Supreme Court has ever said that a former president doesn't have the ability to invoke executive privilege. You know, when the Supreme Court looked at Trump v. Thompson and then didn't rule on that, they sent it back to the appellate court, and the appellate court originally said, well, it's not that the former president doesn't have executive privilege, it's just the current president's waiver counts for more than the former president's assertion. And, you know, basically, I think the Trump team are looking at this and saying,

you know, maybe we can litigate this. Maybe we can litigate this out all the way through, you know, 2022, 2023, maybe all the way up to the next presidential. I think that's really where they're trying to go. It's so fascinating, Hugo, in the filing on Monday, but also in all the documents that the Trump people have tried to make public that they think helped them sometimes amount to confessions of what he's done. Yeah. So I think this document from the National Archives, this was originally released by a ally close to the president. So that was kind of shooting himself in the foot. But then the filing itself as well. I mean, they tried to make the claim that some of the documents that were removed from Mar-a-Lago are subject to executive privilege. If you start making that argument, you get into the territory where you're saying, well,

these are actually official government records and effectively conceding that they should have remained at the National Archive. They shouldn't have been at Mar-a-Lago in the first place. And so you have this almost concession that comes out of this filing. And I think it only bolsters, again, one of the statutes listed on the search warrant in USC 2071, which concerns the unlawful removal and concealment of government records. So this was just a whole extraordinary. Here's something that I do find confusing, and I wonder if it is Trump world's best argument.

The president has broad leverage over what he can declassify. And as we've seen with broad leverage over who he can give a clearance. Jared Kushner was not given a clearance and Donald Trump wanted Jared Kushner to have access to the highest level of intel and Donald Trump had his way over the intel community. What are you hearing about that argument and how it's going to play out that the president could have already declassified these documents? Yeah, that's what they're really focused on. I think they want to make this all about the classification. If you look at the statutes, though, in the search one, I think, you know, I've said this and other people have said this, but the statutes don't turn on whether the

documents are classified. All the statutes say is like, are they sensitive national security secrets? Are they government secrets? And so, you know, Kash Patel and people close to the former president have been making this argument that, you know, he had a standing order to declassify. By the way, we've not seen any evidence of that whatsoever. But even if that were true, that doesn't excuse the fact that the former president can have all these national security documents lying around in Mar-a-Lago out of storage facility that's, you know, not up to scratch. You know what is kind of interesting, Eddie, when you look at this, when you look at the Trump people's arguments and the exposure that they have went to themselves with their arguments,

is that you could have made these arguments 30 years ago in any case that Donald Trump was involved with. And there were many real estate largely. And it all classifies that all comes down to two elements, delay and deny. And that's what they're doing here. Oh, absolutely. And I can't help, and you guys help me, I can't help but think about why or ask the question, why did he want these documents? What's the purpose? And given who he is, I mean, I can't, I'm not a Harvard, I'm not the dean of the Harvard Law School. Close. Not even close. Not even close.

You were closer. Why? I mean, aren't we worried that he would monetize this? I mean, he's like, yeah, you know, an expert left level grifter. I mean, the danger here is is is out of bounds, it seems to me. Especially Hugo, since we know from reporting that he was personally going through the boxes and screening through like what should go back to the archives and what belongs to me. Again, he kept saying these documents are mine. They're not, of course. But he had a vested interest, as Eddie points out, in what he was surrendering, what he was keeping in Mar-a-Lago.

Yeah, and he went through, according to our reporting, I think the Times as well, like, you know, he went through a lot of these boxes himself when the Justice Department came knocking. You know, he really identified the documents he wanted to return and what he didn't want to return. And then, of course, to your point about when he was leaving the White House, he was looking through what he wanted to take with him to Mar-a-Lago. And he was very secretive about

his packing. He didn't want to let his aides. You know, I actually spoke to several people in the East Wing who were involved in helping Melania Trump put their belongings together. And that was also the case for them. So people in the residence across the board were not really being able to see what Trump was putting into his own boxes. And I think it kind of certainly seems to satisfy or start to satisfy the intent level of this potential crime here that he really wanted to take these documents. It really sounds like the most reading Donald Trump's done in his lifetime. He actually might have been the one with the charts and the graphs. That's what I find so awesome about the story. Not awesome, just wow.

Well, given given his nature, given his history, given his lack of character, you can't help but think that he would look at a document sitting out on the patio with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe talking about the North Korean missile test, just throwing it out there to the membership out on the patio. So nothing is beneath him. Hugo Lowell, congressional reporter for The Guardian. Thanks so much for your reporting, for being here again this morning. Still ahead on Morning Joe, the IRS launches a safety review amid an increase in threats to its employees, with the head of the agency blaming the dangerous rhetoric from top Republicans for the increased danger. Also this morning, the United States is preparing a new weapons package for Ukraine,

the largest yet as the Russian invasion hits the six-month mark today. Well, the very latest on where the fighting stands. Also this morning, Congressman and former Florida Governor Charlie Crist, who won his primary last night and hoping to defeat Ron DeSantis in November, joins us in just a moment. We'll be right back on Morning Joe. Today marks six months since Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The Biden administration expected to announce a new $3 billion security assistance package later today. It is the largest aid package yet to Ukraine and being prepared to coincide with the country's Independence Day. It will include drones, air defense systems and other weapons with advanced capabilities. Officials say the new funding is aimed largely at helping Ukraine to secure its medium and long-term defense. NBC's Josh Letterman joins us now

live from Kyiv. Josh, what does it look like there today on Independence Day? Well, Willie, it is a mix of defiance and anxiety as Ukrainians mark six months of war, as well as Independence Day. Defiance as Ukrainians are parading burnt out tanks from Russia through the streets of Kyiv, the main drag not far from Maidan. And anxiety as the air raid sirens have been sounding just in the last few minutes, Ukrainians bracing for a potentially massive Russian bombardment on this day. And you can see this banner that they've hung up at City Hall behind me honoring some of the captured soldiers from Mariupol. There are so many

Ukrainian families for whom this is a very bittersweet Independence Day. He called around 7 a.m. and said, Mom, I'm fine. He didn't say a word to me about what happened on the island. The day Russia invaded. Anna Nestorenko's son Vadim was serving on Snake Island, where the war's first iconic battle played out. Annalena, tell me about your son. He really liked the island, nature, the sea. Olena Pshelinska's son Mikula was a cook in Ukraine's military,

also at Snake Island. These two mothers, now bound together by anguish. They learned their sons had been captured by spotting them on Russian TV, being bused to occupied Crimea. So this is your son's room, and you've kept it exactly like it was for him

for when he comes back. To this day we know nothing. Nothing at all. Where are they? In what conditions? If they're healthy? If they're eating anything? As Ukraine marks six months of war on Wednesday,

there are countless families waiting and hoping. We are talking about several thousand Ukrainian prisoners of war. Ukraine's military says nearly 600 have been released in exchanges with Russia. Many later described torture, death threats, and constant mental abuse. Russia says it treats POWs humanely. In April, Ukraine said it was holding about 600 Russian POWs. Marine Hleb Stryshko is among the lucky ones who was released. In April, he was part of Ukraine's last stand in Mariupol. He saw a Russian tank aiming at him, then a flash. The building started collapsing. I fell from the third to the first floor,

and I was covered with stones from above. Hleb was pulled out of the rubble with a broken pelvis, jaw, and nose. He says the only way doctors in besieged Mariupol could save him was to turn him over to Russia. He says he was given no medical care, not even painkillers, and that Chechen guards would taunt him by running daggers along his throat. Sometimes the nurses would just pass by the room, leave the food and say, eat it yourself, Ukraine. It was clear that I could not even move, let alone eat. They could come two hours later, take the food and ask, are you full? Freed after 17 days, he hopes to return to the front lines. When the phone rings in the village of Berezivka,

Anna prays it's her son. Can you read to me what his last message to you was? Everything is fine. Do not worry. Everything is fine. If your son could see this conversation right now, what would you like to tell him? That we are waiting for him. We love him. And Willie, I asked that Marine Halib whether his experience has made him feel hatred towards the Russian troops who have littered Ukraine with equipment like this. He said these days it's hard for him to even distinguish mentally between, quote unquote, good, bad Russians, good Russians versus bad Russians. He says the Russian army has turned his female friends into widows and his male friends into cripples. That is just some of the legacy of this ongoing war that is weighing on Ukrainians as they celebrate Independence Day today. Well, as you say, the country very much on edge again today on Independence Day.

NBC's Josh Letterman in Kiev. Josh, thanks so much. We appreciate it. Let's bring in former senior operations officer with the CIA, Mark Polymeropoulos. Mark, good to see you this morning. So let's pause for a moment on this six-month commemoration of the beginning of the war, Russia's invasion. A lot of people say it started in 2014 with its illegal annexing of Crimea, but this phase of the invasion anyway. What's your assessment of where things stand right now?

Ukraine obviously has shown the world its courage, its bravery, its fight, the strength of its military ability to rally the West behind it. Russia's military weaker, its objectives certainly scaled back from what it wanted on those first days and weeks of the war. But where are we as we sit here six months in? So good morning, Willie. So I think it's you know, it's important at the six month mark to kind of take a look at where we are from the intelligence perspective. You know, I spent 26 years at the agency. And remember, you know, intelligence is a nation's any nation's first line of defense. And so so I take a look at the Russian intelligence services and remember, you know, Sun Tzu talked about, you know, military intelligence is the key to war. Without it, you know, you cannot win. And so how has Russia performed? And they performed spectacularly bad. It's almost an epic failure. You know, there's an expose recently about, you know, how the Russian FSB, their internal service that was responsible for Ukraine,

really was filled with, you know, hubris, incompetence, you know, running poor sources and ultimately providing terrible information to Russian President Vladimir Putin, almost, you know, reinforcing his desire to invade rather than telling truth to power. So the Russian intelligence service has suffered spectacular failures. Also, don't forget that 400 Russian intelligence officers were declared persona negra from NATO countries. So they lost kind of an operational footprint in Europe. So when you take a look at it at the six month mark, I think it's pretty remarkable that Russia, and particularly Russian intelligence, which was considered to be 10 feet tall, is just like the Russian military, really a Potemkin village.

Mark, was one of the tells on the poor intelligence that the Russians brought to the field in this war, did it occur early on, perhaps when we saw the miles- long logistical train of tanks outside of Kiev, and they had to retreat within within two or three weeks? Well, that's right, Mike. And don't forget, the FSB told Vladimir Putin that that the Russian military would be treated, you know, as liberators, you know, there'd be, you know, flower petals thrown at them, you know, as liberators. You know, there'd be, you know, flower petals thrown at them. You know, they expected to take heed with this lightning strike. You know, they told Vladimir Putin that they had sources in place, agents in place,

who would help kind of overthrow the Ukrainian government. And they were wrong. So, you know, those miles of tanks that you saw and the logistics disasters, actually, that's a function of Russian intelligence getting the entire issue so absolutely wrong. And, you know, to me, you know, I look at, you know, as we follow the Russian intelligence service, it's pretty remarkable. The head of the FSB, Alexander Portnikov, he still has a job.

That's probably a reflection that, you know, that Vladimir Putin relies on the Russian security elite, you know, as a foundation of the state. But but, you know, this this goes down in kind of intelligence history is just an epic failure. And again, the poor performance of the Russian military, you know, that's a result of the FSB also getting this so wrong from the beginning. Mark, Elise Jordan here. President Biden has pledged another three billion in munitions to the Ukrainians. That's on top of about $10.6 billion that we already have provided. Is this becoming another proxy war against the Russians, much like what played out in Afghanistan for so many years? Well, Elise, I think that's a great point. You

know, I think my old colleagues at CIA's operations directorate and then, you know, those special operations forces from, you know, Special Operations Command Europe, you know, I think my old colleagues at CIA's Operations Directorate, and then, you know, those special operations forces from, you know, Special Operations Command Europe, you know, they're quite busy now. And this is what we're really good at doing. And, you know, starting in 2014, the U.S. National Security Establishment, which really was, you know, U.S. and British, you know, special operations and intelligence forces established relationships with Ukrainians, particularly Ukrainian military intelligence. And I think that, you know, this kind of seamless flow of now billions of dollars of aid that is allowing Ukrainians to do so well on the battlefield, you know, that's a function of years of working together. So, you know, the U.S. is good at this, as is, of course, our Western NATO parties.

But I think this really bodes well for the future. And, you know, I just, you know, kind of two notes on this as we're looking at it from the intel side. Number one, you know, NATO intelligence services have done very well. The U.S., you know, we stole the war plans. That's a pretty big intelligence boon. And then we have this kind of logistic and operational train where we're when we're sending billions in. And make no mistake, let's talk about the Ukrainians. You know, an extraordinary brave group. Ukrainian military intelligence is leading the way.

And, you know, the ability to ingest, you know, billions of weapons and get them to their partners in the Ukrainian military is pretty remarkable. Yeah, they've shown the world what an incredible country, what incredible people they are. Still, six months in, their country has been devastated by this war. Former CIA senior operations officer Mark Polymeropoulos, his new piece is up in the Washington Examiner. Mark, thanks so much. We appreciate it. Coming up here, we'll get some unique insight on the documents recovered at Mar-a-Lago from former Secretary of Homeland Security Jay Johnson. Plus, we'll be joined by the woman hoping to take Marco Rubio's Senate seat. Florida Congresswoman Val Demings is our guest, fresh off her primary

win last night. That one's driven deep to left field. There's a flight. See ya. A long home run for Judge. 1-0 Yankees. 48 of them. Aaron Judge got the scoring started in the fourth inning for the Yankees last night against the Mets with that major league-leading 48th home run of the season.

Jump to the bottom of the seventh. Games tied. Former Red Sox. Yankee deadline pickup Andrew Benintendi singling home the go-ahead run. Judge tacked on another RBI in the inning. Yanks hold on to win 4-2, completing a brief two-game sweep of the Mets in the final Subway series of the regular season. Maybe they'll see each other again. Both teams remain in first place in their divisions. The Mets, though,

their lead over the Braves is now down to just two games. Mike, are the Yankees better now after this? Was this their little get well, sort of we needed this? Yeah, they had their palate cleanser. They had their late summer slump. They threw that last night. I think the flight attendant on that ball that Aaron Judge hit, I think she was upset it was going too fast. But, yeah, they're looking good. Andrew Benintendi, a huge addition. He's finally come around. He's getting now.

He came up with some critical hits there. But, yeah, the Yankees are going to be okay. They're too good not to be okay. And so are the Mets, by the way. And the Mets are a really fun team to watch. Yes, they are. And that was one of those home runs. If you look at it again, where the pitcher, Tywon Walker, just didn't look. He knew he missed it. Oh, yeah. He sees the cabal jump off. Judge is fat. He's like, give me the next ball.

What about the Braves, though, man? The Braves defending champs. They're going to be tough. They're going to be tough on those Mets. The Braves have have a series of young athletes that have arrived on that team, on that club, just this summer, who have made a remarkable difference in the club just in the last six or seven weeks. And the Braves are smart enough to sign them long term early to take care of their budget. The Braves are a great team as well. Terrific team.

They are. And we're not even talking about the Dodgers, who are the real titan in all baseball. I'll talk about any team except my team. The poor, sweet Red Sox. They're not that far out of the wild card, though. They still could claw their way out. Stop teasing me. Stop this. Some false hope. All right. When we come back, a very busy morning after a busy night of primary races, we've got some of the winners lined up for you. Val Demings, Charlie Crist, and Sean Patrick Maloney all will be our guests when Morning Joe comes back. What's next for me?

I'll take such a sweet toss and turn in an undertow. 6.50 in the morning on a Wednesday morning at the United States Capitol. Looks like a beautiful day in Washington. So you recall last week we talked about that video from Senate candidate Dr. Oz in the state of Pennsylvania where he strolled through a supermarket looking for a crudité. Those are vegetables, by the way. Like if you went to the Super Bowl, you get the vegetables with the dips and everything. That's what that is.

So now, John Fetterman, the Democrat, his opponent in the race, made an issue of that. Dr. Oz's team is trying to push back. Fetterman first capitalized on that video that went viral. It was shot back in the spring, making merchandise and teasing Dr. Oz. In response, Oz's team pushing too far. Rachel Tripp, Oz's senior communications advisor, released a statement to Insider that reads this way. If John Fetterman had ever eaten a vegetable in his life,

then maybe he wouldn't have had a major stroke and wouldn't be in the position of having to lie about it constantly. Fetterman suffered a stroke in May, keeping the Senate candidate off the campaign trail for some time as he recovered. In response to the statement from the Oz staffer, Fetterman tweeted, I had a stroke. I survived it. I'm truly so grateful to still be here today. I know politics can be nasty, but even then, I could never imagine ridiculing someone for their health challenges.

Eddie, this is disgusting. You know, there's politics. And then they're saying my punch back at you is to mock you for having a stroke. And it's Dr. Oz playing a role. He's trying to be Trumpian in some way. It doesn't fit him at all, as he's proven before. It's gross. Yeah. You know, there's this line from Maya Angelou that is usually attributed to when people show you who they are, believe them. There's a sense in which all the time we're seeing evidence of the character of these folks. And at the heart of it is a kind of cruelty and nastiness. And that statement shows not only a lack of empathy, but a kind of mean spiritedness that speaks to who these people actually are. Lack of character. And it shows

you're losing when you're putting out statements like that. And you know it. You're desperate. Yeah, it's a portrait of desperation. That's what it is. Dr. Oz, I mean, you know, going around offering cheese trays to people in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania. Crudite, Mike. It's crudite, yes.

And charcuterie boards. They love that stuff. That's where I'm coming from. They love that stuff. Sam Stein, it'm coming from. They love that stuff. Sam Stein, it does get to a more serious point about the state of the race and the state of the candidates that are handpicked by Donald Trump. We've heard all the private grumbling from Donald Trump that Dr. Oz isn't the candidate he thought Trump thought he would be. Thought he was telegenic. He was charismatic. He could go out and charm people and win this race. He may still, but he's not right now.

Yeah, I mean, I think he's doing this both out of a sense of desperation and also because he needs to juice fundraising statistics. And you do outlandish things like this to get fundraising up. It just goes to the poor quality of the candidates that have been chosen, put forward. A lot of problematic candidates on the Republican side, especially in these Senate races. It's not just Dr. Oz. Herschel Walker has stumbled in various parts of his campaign as well. But even some of the more mainstream ones have struggled on the fundraising front as well. And look, if you've watched the Pennsylvania race over the past couple of weeks, you've noticed something very particular. Oz is still in his own sort of conservative media bubble. He's doing

interviews on all these conservative stations, trying to reach conservative voters. That's because he has not generated enthusiasm. Just goes back to my original point, which is that the grassroots enthusiasm on the conservative side is geared through Donald Trump. Doesn't get transferred to any other candidate. It's geared through Donald Trump. So if you're running for office as a Republican, you have to try to be Trumpified. But no one can pull it off because no one else is Donald Trump. Think about what it says about politics or at least about that campaign that the way to juice fundraising is to mock your opponent for having a stroke. That's where we are. Sam Stein, thanks so much. Good to see you again tomorrow morning.

Still ahead, we are joined by a pair of primary winners from Florida last night. Democratic Congresswoman Val Demings is our guest after easily securing her party's nomination for the November race to unseat Republican Marco Rubio. And former Florida Governor Charlie Crist joins us to discuss his bid to take down incumbent Governor Ron DeSantis. Plus, NASA is working to build a foundation for human deep space exploration. And it starts with a return to the moon. The space agency's administrator, former Senator Bill Nelson, joins us. Morning Joe comes right back.