Morning Joe - Morning Joe 9/19/24

Episode Date: September 19, 2024

Poll shows tight race in three battleground states

I look at the debate. I walked off. I said, that's the debate. You know, they said I'm the goat in debates because I had a lot of debates and I became president. And the goat means greatest of all time. They didn't correct her once. And they corrected me everything I said practically, I think, nine times or 11 times. And the audience was absolutely they went crazy. And and the real i thought it was i walked off i said that was a great debate i loved it well i mean it did i mean you know the stagehands were going crazy does he know there was a there was a hound dog up up howling up up in the balcony of abc you know the abc has that hand hound dog they've had, you know, since, well, Peter Jennings brought the hound dog

originally. Willie, yeah, the crowd went crazy. The crowd went crazy. What debate is he talking about? Yeah, which one is he talking about? Is he confusing the debate with a Taylor Swift concert? Our crowd in this studio, as you know, Joe, every time I provide a piece of analysis, or you do,

there just goes absolutely bananas, leaps to its feet. Sometimes they go into the wave, you know, when they're in here, it's just, it's fun to watch it. It energizes you. Yeah. I mean, there's just so much there that he said, they say, who's they saying he's the goat. He's called calling himself the goat talking about the rousing ovations he got in a completely empty Constitution Center. Except for him, Kamala Harris

said the two moderators at that debate, which obviously, as has been the case with both debates so far, had no audience in the room whatsoever. No, not at all.

Meanwhile, the former president. They went wild, though. They went crazy. The crowd went crazy. Says he plans. Biggest crowd you've ever seen at a debate. all. Meanwhile, the former president. They went wild, though. They went crazy. The crowd went crazy. Biggest crowd you've ever seen at a debate. They had a t-shirt, gun out, Joe, shooting them to the fans. It was amazing.

It was unbelievable playing Guns N' Roses. There was crowd surfing, you know, and it was really wild. And so, yeah, that's something. And he remembers that. Yeah.

He also says that he's going to visit Springfield, Ohio, despite objections from the city's Republican mayor. It comes as there's new reporting on how the Trump campaign knew the stories about Haitian migrants in Springfield were not true, but spread the lies anyway. How sick. Also ahead, the Federal Reserve makes an aggressive move on interest rates with

the first cut in four years. Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner is here to break down what that move could mean for the future of the economy. I'll tell you what it means for Willie and me. Our off-track dog race business is going to, we finally, I think we're going to get the cash, Willie. I think we're going to open it up. Yeah, and now that we've also opened up the crypto lane on the dog racing, I think we're going to have a big year. You know, a big year.

Right, okay. Everything's coming up, Rose. And let me tell you something. You hear the crowd cheering? You hear the crowd cheering in the studio? Yeah, they're going wild. Really? Yeah.

I mean, they want this to happen. The Knicks City Dancers just came out and did a routine. It was amazing. No way. Okay. That feel good? That keep you distracted? Yeah.

We're also going to have the latest. Let me tell you, while we're talking about New York sports, Mika, and I thank you for your patience. The New York Yankees in the playoffs. I got to say, the other big story in New York right now, those Mets. The Mets? You got to believe, Willie. You got to believe the Mets now two games up in the wild card race over the Braves.

And they, again, like we said earlier this week, they're giving back to the Braves what the Braves have done to them the last two or three years. Just a torrid second half of the season. And I've got to say, with as badly as the Mets started this season, I don't think any of us really would have thought going into the second half of September that this New York Mets team would have the run that they have had down the stretch. Yeah, they have been playing great lately. They beat the Nationals again. They've got a crazy stretch coming up. They've got a bunch of games with the Phillies, the best team arguably in baseball. And then they actually play next week, Joe, a three-game series with the Braves in Atlanta,

which likely will decide the whole thing. So, yeah, the Mets playing great. Yankees clinched at least a wild card out in Seattle last night. So for now, anyway, baseball is good in New York. OK, we're also going to have the latest on the case against P. Diddy, which seems to get worse as more and more information comes out. And also former secretary of state, former presidential candidate, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton will be on the show today about her new book. So we look forward to that as well. Along with Joe, Willie and me, we have the host. We can ask her about it. She was distracted by the applause and her debates with Donald Trump because the crowds were huge then.

Well, actually, so the host of Way Too early White House beer, chief of Politico, Jonathan Lemire is with us. Jonathan, what's going on with him? Like he doesn't remember from week to week. What is that? Because that that's happened a couple of times yesterday. He he he confused Bagram Air Force Base for, you know, Anwar in in Alaska. Like, wait, what's going on there?

Well, first, I'll note you just showed Sam Stein on the split screen. He cheered for me when I came up on set this morning. Thank you, Sam. Very appreciative of that, Sam. Thank you. Yeah, this is happening more and more for Donald Trump. Let's remember, he's 78 years old. And with

so much attention this year about President Biden's age, when he was still in the race, it was sort of overlooked that Trump just a couple of years younger and just as prone, maybe more so to these verbal slips and confusion. I think it's harder to pick up sometimes from Trump because he's so loud and he talks so fast. And frankly, he's been doing this for years. So we're all sort of numb to it. But now I think there is a new focus here, you know, about his mental capability and fitness for office. It's certainly one that Democrats are pointing to. And these mistakes, these mix ups are only seemingly increasing by the day.

The crowd. And again, just to underline, you said the crowd went crazy at this debate. The crowd went crazy. There's no crowd. Dead quiet in there. Just two hosts. And I don't know. I don't know. You know, Bagram Air Force Base. Maybe you can see it from Alaska and on war.

I don't know. I don't know. It's weird. All right. So we've got a lot. We've got new polls out. Yes. There are a slew of new polls showing a tight presidential race in three key battleground states.

Let's start in Pennsylvania, where the latest New York Times, Siena College, Philadelphia Inquirer poll of likely voters finds Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump 50 percent to 46 percent. That result falls within the poll's margin of error. Which again, I mean, it's New York Times, they usually have her at three and Donald Trump at 97. It's like, you know, they did polling for Saddam Hussein. Still, it's just a snapshot and it's close. But here, yeah, this is close,

but she's up by four points. A new Quinnipiac University poll in Pennsylvania finds Harris leading Trump 51 to 45 percent in Michigan. Harris has a five point lead over Trump. And in Wisconsin, it's close. Harris leads Trump by just one point, 48 to 47 percent. Meanwhile, a new Marist poll has Harris and Trump tied in Pennsylvania. Harris has a five point lead in Michigan and a one point lead in Wisconsin.

Similarly, a new AARP poll finds Harris leading Trump by one point among likely voters in Wisconsin, 49 percent to 48 percent. But among voters 50 and older, Trump takes a three point lead over Harris. And the latest New York Times, Siena College National Poll of Likely Voters finds Harris and Trump tied at 47 percent. So what do you think? Well, I think I've found the polls to be disappointing in the past, so I never know what to believe. But it does it does give you a snapshot. And I think the trend lines is what you always say is the important thing to look at. Yeah, I mean, and Will, if you look at the trend lines in Pennsylvania, in Michigan, trend lines, all most of them show Kamala Harris doing substantially better. Six, seven, eight points better than Joe Biden did. Up three, four points again, still in the margin of error.

But you look at the trend lines there. Trend lines in Pennsylvania and Michigan look good for Kamala Harris. Wisconsin just is about as tight as, Dan Rather might say, tight as a Texas tick. As a toad on a, yeah. Tight as a Texas tick on the back of a... Okay, he's way better than that.

World's a frog head. Side shooters. Those are good. He's a frog head side cheaters. He's got him. He's got him. There you go. Yeah, it is. I mean, it is stark when you look where we were before President Biden got out of the race. The trend lines, as we talk about, seem to be slipping in a lot of states, obviously in the battleground states, but even others.

And at worst, Kamala Harris has stabilized that. And at best, in some of these swing states, she has grown a bit of a lead now on Donald Trump. But Sam Stein, I guess the good news for Democrats is there is no celebration whatsoever inside the Harris campaign. They're under no illusions that they're running away with any of these states. They know how close it's going to be. Interesting to note in some of the crosstabs on these polls, though, that we looked at just a minute ago, the Quinnipiac polls on specific issues that Donald Trump is believed to have and that he thinks he has an advantage, the economy and immigration. Even those have entered sort of margin of error territory, suggesting that Kamala Harris has made up ground on those two pivotal issues in this race.

Yeah, I mean, unlike the crowd at the debate, you are right. Not much celebration here for them. Did I get the, did I connect the dots? Just got to, you know, ruin the show a little bit. I will note that Joe's right. It's kind of funny because all these polls basically tell the same thing of a very tight race with a probably small Harris lead. But Joe's right. It's kind of funny because all these polls basically tell the same thing of a very tight race with a probably small Harris lead. But Joe's right. You can imagine the collective freak out and meltdown if the numbers were slightly reversed in the New York Times-Siena poll. And it was Harris who was down a couple points in Pennsylvania.

Democrats would have a therapy bill that would be monumental. But that's not the case. And it's funny because I don't think Republicans will feel the same way about that poll this morning. Ultimately, it's a really close race, right? And the trend lines are slightly more favorable to Harris. There was some question about whether she had plateaued a little bit. I think at this point, it's probably fair to say the debate gave her a small boost. And yeah, I think we're looking at a race where it's like, you know, one or two percentage margins in a number of critical states that will determine the election. I think the good news for Harris is not just that she's got a little bit of

momentum, but that she has more money and also a more sophisticated ground game operation. I was talking about it with Lemire a little bit, but, you know, Trump's kind of outsourced all of his ground game operation to other groups, including an Elon Musk super PAC. And there was a news story this week that was a little bit underappreciated. But Musk basically stopped contracting with a couple of those groups and decided to contract with another group. The other thing, though, that is of note, and I think Willie hit on it, is that on the key issue of the day, which is the economy, more trust for Harris over time. And then secondly, and I know we're going to get to this, the Fed interest rate cut.

We have the recipe for a decent set of economic conditions heading into Election Day, which I think will benefit Harris. And which I think is why you saw a lot of the Trump people sort of angry about it, calling it almost conspiratorial and political for Powell to do it. So all things considered, a fairly good day of data for Harris. Yeah, I'm going to go to Lemire now. OK, yeah, let's do that. Never misses it. I'm going to Lemire now. OK, you do it, honey. Hey, Jonathan, so now there's a part where I'm coming to you, which I was told to make of that. TJ goes, take the prompt. Take the prompt. So anyway, the this whole story about plateauing again, I just want to bring this up. And as Sam said, psychiatrists across Manhattan, you know, they basically get a month's worth of work. The day after New York Times, Santa poll comes out. Today, you know, it's like 47-47,

but they threw in the Pennsylvania deal just sort of as a mood regulator for some people on the Upper East Side, Upper West Side. It's a cut through, anti-depressant. Yeah, exactly, exactly. So it's sort of like you up, down. They got to stabilize it. So anyway. It's a mixture. So but that that said, the only plateau there was was the New York Times Siena poll.

And I'm serious. You look at the polls that are out there right now. A lot of a lot of the ones that have come out the last couple of days, national polls have Harris up three, four, five, six points. These polls show certainly in the most important swing states, a significant move towards her. Wisconsin, really tight. And of course, Wisconsin is whiter. Wisconsin is older. That's a state really that Joe Biden was overperforming in because he did better with older white voters than he did with other groups that he usually underperformed on. So I think that's what we're seeing in Wisconsin. But right now, Michigan, Pennsylvania, if you're looking at these numbers, if you're also looking at what Kamala Harris together have been burying millions and millions of dollars and building up a ground game over the past year, in part because Biden is an

old time Paul that says ground game, ground game, ground game. In close races, even the Trump people will tell you a good ground game is worth half a point point in any state, especially when the other side is outsourcing their ground game because they never had the discipline to build it. So this is, again, not great news for Harris, but certainly not good news for Donald Trump. Right. Yeah. Let's let's first take a beat on that ground game. Let's remember, of course, that the RNC was then co-opted by the Trump campaign and Trump family. And they're used resources for some of his legal bills for a time as opposed to working on that ground game. Well, you're right that starting under President Biden, when he was the candidate and continued under Vice President Harris, the Democrats have a massive advantage in all the battleground states in terms of offices.

And they've seen after Harris moved the top of the ticket, a surge in volunteers. I've been told they have they don't even have enough jobs for people who want to do them because there's such enthusiasm for her. That's got to help. And we shouldn't overlook she's going to have a massive financial advantage as well. She's really out fundraised Trump and will have to spend less time going forward doing so, more time on the campaign trail. You know, certainly in terms of these polls, you mentioned Wisconsin. Even in Pennsylvania as well, it's a state that's whiter than most of the country. And the polls show some strength here from Harris on white voters and even with older voters. Now, not as strong as Joe Biden, which is why I think the Harris campaign is going to use Biden in

targeted fashions to speak to those demographics going forward. The race is very close, but the trend lines favor Harris. And in terms of, guys, the spin of these polls is always amusing. Whenever a poll comes out that shows a tight race, Republicans always grab it and say, look, we're doing really well. Motivate our voters. We're doing well. We're going to win. I think that's also to pump up their candidate. Well, Democrats do the other way. This is trouble. We're underdog because they know they don't want to take things for granted. They want to keep working. And the Harris campaign feeding into that, say, look, we have a lot of work to do. We're still losing, even though polls suggest she's not. So let's talk about that big

sign of where the economy is now, where it's headed in a long anticipated move. The Federal Reserve cut its target interest rate yesterday for the first time since 2020. The Fed slashed half a percentage point off those benchmark rates. That's a short term borrowing costs for banks, but also affects mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. After announcing the cut, the central bank also forecasted lowering rates by another half point before the end of the year. Let's bring in former Treasury official and Morning Joe economic analyst Steve Ratner. Steve, good morning. Here's the front page of the Wall Street Journal this morning says that the Fed goes big with half point rate cut. We were talking

beforehand. This sounds like a big number and it is, but they were signaling that it might go from not a quarter, but to a half in the in the days before this. Yeah, normally it would be a quarter for this first step in a rate cut cycle. That's traditionally what's happened outside of some crisis. And the fact that they went to 50 basis points says two things. One, that they had the room to do it. Inflation has come way down, and it's down to about 2.5%. And secondly, that they kind of needed to do it because the labor market is softening. You can see here the march of rates going up to the top of the mountain, and then you can see them starting to come down. And what the Fed also, as you said,

projected are more rate cuts this year, more rate cuts next year, and gradually rates getting back to some somewhat more normal level. And on the right side, you can see mortgage costs have already rolled over. And that's really important. Housing costs have been a big factor in this election. And it's important to show the American people that there's hope on mortgage costs. So, Steve, if it goes another half point by the end of the year, as predicted, you're talking about a full point in the space of about four months or so. So just in layman's term, what are the practical implications of that for people watching the show today?

Well, the practical implications are lower interest costs, as you said in your lead in on mortgages, credit cards and all that sort of stuff. But the real implications are that it gives a little bit more stimulus to the economy, provides a little bit more of a lift, but it also signals something important, which is that we have gotten the inflation under control. And inflation is now down to two and a half percent. Fed's target is two percent. So we're not that far from it. And it does show that. And you can see that right up there. We have on the right side of the inflation. You can see the inflation mountain going up the mountain, coming coming down the mountain.

And so the Fed has the scope now to do this and it will do it. And so it's a big political lift for, I think, the Harris campaign. I think they're in a position now, as the president is going, President Biden is going to say at the Economic Club of Washington today, not he's going to be careful not to declare victory, but he's going to say we've made a lot of progress and it looks pretty good ahead. We're also growing at 2%. We're adding jobs. And here's a fun fact for you. GDP under President Biden, even if you strip out COVID, grew slightly faster than it did under Trump, who loves to run around and talk about his great economy. Actually, it was a little bit better under Biden. So we've heard this term soft landing for the last couple of years, the delicate dance that the feds have to do to avoid a recession effectively. Does it look like our economy has achieved that or will achieve that?

Remarkably, it does. And this is almost without precedent. There's almost no example in history where the Fed has had to go in and attack inflation and has managed to lick it without without having a recession. And so, yes, the percentage of economists who think there could be a recession in the next year, likely to be a recession next year, has gone from a peak of 65 percent down to 35 percent. And so we are basically in a pretty in a pretty strong environment. I want to make one other point, because Trump, of course, is attacking the Fed and saying it's political and pal and blah, blah, blah. I'm not sure that Trump understands how the Fed makes rate decisions. Rate decisions are made by a committee of 12 people from all over the country appointed by various presidents, by various local Federal Reserve banks. It is not Jay Powell's decision. And you had an 11 to 1

decision yesterday in favor of cutting rates. So this is the Fed doing its job, not the Fed playing politics. As always, Donald Trump suggesting something that doesn't cut his way. Perhaps there must be something corrupt or fishy going on, injecting that poison into the economy quickly. Something else he said before he suggested something was up with this was that this is a sign, this rate cut of a half a point, that the economy is not doing well. What's the truth about that? The job situation has been slowing down a bit. Unemployment is up to about 4.3 percent or thereabouts, but that's still a pretty low number. The economy is slowing but it's still positive. The Fed also projected, and the numbers are showing, GDP growth of around 2%. It's not a barn on fire, but it's not terrible. It's a very steady, solid growth rate. Obviously, it is hard to predict the economy, but it does not suggest

the economy is in deep trouble. As I said, recession predictions have been coming down, down, down. Steve Ratner, always bringing the truth. Steve, thanks so much. We appreciate it. Mika? All right, time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. Russian President Vladimir Putin is under pressure to call up more troops in his war of attrition on Ukraine. It comes as Western analysts say the Kremlin is now losing more men on the battlefield than it can recruit to replace them. Putin has so far dismissed the idea of mobilization, saying he wanted to use only those who were voluntarily signing military contracts. You know, we're going to be talking to Richard Haass in a bit about this,

but Jonathan Lemire, it is shocking. We often talk about the problems that Ukraine's having. But yesterday, the number comes out a million casualties in this war killed or wounded of Russian soldiers. I mean, this is what was supposed to be a three day excursion to Kiev. It's turned to an epic national tragedy for Ukraine, but also for the mothers and fathers of Russia. Yeah, a tragedy and a humiliation for Vladimir Putin. Let's not, it can't be said enough. I mean, they have, yes, they still do control 15, 20 percent of Ukraine. The battle lines have largely frozen. But this has been a devastating blow to Russia's military, its reputation,

to be sure, but also its manpower and its technology. And that's why the Biden administration has really seized on this argument that though not a single American troop is deployed there in Ukraine and fighting that conflict, this is one of the best investments the United States military has ever made by supplying Ukraine with both money and equipment and weapons. They've weakened Russia's military where it will take years upon years to recover. All right. The Justice Department is suing the owner and operator of the container ship that collapsed the Francis Scott Key Bridge last March. The $100 million legal claim asserts that the company's actions leading up to the catastrophe were grossly negligent and reckless,

citing poor maintenance and jerry-rig fixes to serious problems aboard the ship. The incident killed six workers and paralyzed the port of Baltimore for weeks. And Saturday Night Live has revealed some of its hosts for its upcoming 50th season. Sam Stein. Sam Stein. Now, Jean Smart, who won an Emmy for her role in Hacks, will kick things off on September 28th alongside musical guest Jelly Roll. Other hosts include Ariana Grande, John Mulaney and Michael Keaton, whose latest film, Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice, is in theaters.

And I think Jonathan O'Meara is going to be a late season ad. Yeah, we're going to, they'll pop in a minute. I mean, if you listen, if you listen, Willie, when you listen to the crowds, what they do way too early, the laughter, just the way he moves and paces himself through the scripts and the lines. He has the pregnant pauses. It's all very exciting. It's good stuff. And the audience, you know, Lorne Michaels watching way too early. He's going, who is

that kid? That's right. Meet him on my show. Yeah, at some point it becomes undeniable when you hear the reaction John gets from the crowds in the studio. And not from the rich guys in the seats up front, but he really plays to the real folks who paid for the tickets up top to the cheap seat. Exactly. Yeah. We've got a lot more ahead. The latest on Richard is coming. He did. He's going to ask him about the Giants. Second day of attacks targeting Hezbollah. What we're learning about the latest

round of explosions across Lebanon, this time using walkie talkies, plus new reporting about how the Trump campaign pushed the false claims about migrants eating pets. Complete lies. Even after being told these were lies, untrue and baseless. The Republican governor continues to tell them to stop that they're lies. We're going to bring in one of the reporters behind that story. Also ahead, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as our guest this morning. to stop that their lives. We're going to bring in one of the reporters behind that story. Also

ahead, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton as our guest this morning. She's out with a new book sharing her candid views on the state of our democracy, the threats we face and much more. You're watching Morning Joe. We're back in 90 seconds. A second wave of device explosions in Lebanon has killed at least 32 people and injured thousands more. That's according to Lebanon's health ministry. The country's telecommunications department said the exploding walkie talkies were not purchased through an official distributor and were not licensed by the department. It came a day after hundreds of pagers belonging to Hezbollah members detonated throughout the country, killing at least 12 people and hurting nearly 3,000 others. Israel has not taken direct responsibility, but two U.S. officials

told NBC News Israel was behind the attack. Let's bring in President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass. He's the author of the weekly newsletter Home and Away, available on Substack. And former Supreme Allied Commander of NATO, retired four-star Navy Admiral James Tavridis. He is chief international analyst for NBC News. Good to have you both with us. So, Admiral, I'll start with you. I read yesterday, I believe it was in The Wall Street Journal. It may have been in The New York Times. I'm a little older and the crowd sizes and all the yelling, it distracts me here. So

whether it was The Journal or The Times, the headline was that what Israel did with the pagers was a tactic and not a strategy. I couldn't disagree more. They have sent a clear, unmistakable message, not only to Hezbollah. They sent it to Hamas. They sent it to Iran. We know where you are. We can get you wherever you are. You can never escape our reach. So back off. Maybe they aren't saying that. They may just be saying so die. I'm curious, though, Admiral,

what your thought is, not just on the military brilliance of their operation, according to many in the military community, but also the long-term impact of what they're doing here. I think it is both tactic and strategic effect they're seeking here, Joe. You're absolutely right. And I think there are really four audiences. You hit them, I'll add a thread to each. Certainly Hezbollah. I mean, do you want to wake up this morning working in the Hezbollah IT department, whatever that looks like? I think it's going to be hard to continue employment there or to get others to come in there. And also, yeah, we're all seized with the whiz-bang technology piece of this. It's the supply chains. It's the way the Israelis were able to get into the global

supply chains and go after these devices. So you're Hezbollah. What else have they gotten themselves into? So there's a Hezbollah audience that's tactical. Israel gets a morale boost out of this thing. The U.S., all of us are talking about it this morning. It brings back the conversation. And above all, the signal, my view, here's the strategic piece, is to Iran. You go back six weeks ago, the Israelis in another incredible intelligence, military, kinetic operation, kill the Hamas leader, where? In Tehran at the presidential inauguration. It's the equivalent of a burglar coming into your house and taking you out when you have no idea it's coming. So it's a multi-pronged audience. It is tactical. Look what we can do. And it's also,

my view, quite strategic. It's a warning signal. I don't think it's a prequel to a big attack. I think it is a signal at this point, pretty effective one strategically, in my view. Richard, above the fold this morning, the New York Times, for militants, toll is mental and physical. For Hezbollah, just as a practical matter, they've lost a ton of people from their terrorist organization in the last two days. And the mental impact, which is what Joe and the Admiral were just talking about, which is the knowledge that Israel can find them and get to them wherever they are. What do you make of what we've seen in the last couple of days?

All true. But let's take a step back. What are the Israelis trying to accomplish? And towards what end? What's their definition of success here? Now, so I question this a little bit. So slight disagreement, perhaps, with both the Admiral and with Joe. Israel has around 60,000 citizens who were moved back from the border with Lebanon right after October 7th. They didn't want Hezbollah to be able to accomplish what Hamas accomplished in other parts of Israel. It has become an imperative politically, strategically for these people to go back. Does this advance that goal? Not so obvious to me. Is this a prequel to a larger war? Does Israel want a larger war with Hezbollah right now,

given Hezbollah's massive rocket and missile force that could have an impact throughout much of Israel's cities. So, Richard, what is the response, though, to Hezbollah and the rockets and the missiles that continue to rain down on Israel and basically forced Israel to evacuate the north? What's the response there? Evacuate the north, Joe, because, again, it was because they don't want their people being killed by rockets and missiles, which has fires endlessly. They were more worried, actually, that there would be some Hamas like physical ground type invasion more than rockets and missiles. The rockets and missiles aren't anything new. The question is whether Israel and Hamas can work out essentially

in a range of Hezbollah, sorry, can work out an arrangement where Hezbollah pulls back north of the Latani River. It becomes possible for Lebanese to move back to southern Israel, Israelis to southern Lebanon, I'm sorry, Israelis can move back to the north of their country. Can that be worked out? This could be a prelude to that. And that would be great that essentially this gets Hezbollah to pull back from the brink, and you could have not a peace, but an arrangement between the two. But there's also quite a possibility that we're looking at expanded military operations here, and I'm not sure at what point exchanges and conflict slip over the line into war, but I wouldn't rule that out.

Israel is winding down what it's doing in Gaza, not ending it, but winding it down. It frees up the Israeli military to pivot, to focus more on the north. So I'm not sitting here sanguine that Israel and Hezbollah can manage how this plays out from here on in. Let's move to Russia. We talked about it before you guys got on the show. Vladimir Putin has to deal with a million casualties, a million casualties on his side. And again, while analysts may say he's cold hearted and he doesn't care, there are a lot of mothers and fathers that do. And when you talk about a million casualties and a war that was supposed to be over in three days at some point, shouldn't that, Richard, move Vladimir Putin and perhaps the Ukrainians to the negotiating table?

I hope so. The million casualties between Ukraine and Russia are enormous. Well over 100,000 dead. The economic costs are enormous. And what I'm hoping is the combination of just the pain of the war to Russia and increasingly that Ukraine can bring more pain with missile and drone attacks inside. So Russia is not just meeting it out, but also paying a price for its war. What I'm hoping, Joe, is that Putin reluctantly comes to the perspective that time is not necessarily his friend. But that's going to require that the United States and Europe make clear that they are prepared to support Ukraine materially, militarily down the road. And they're obviously, you know, the Republicans in the House open up that question mark several

months ago. And that's where our election becomes so critical. I think Putin has to be convinced that the West has staying power, has legs for this war, if that happens. And another big if Ukraine is prepared to compromise, not on its long term goals, but its willingness to accept some type of an armistice or cease fire. Then I think, yeah, in 2025, more likely 2026, I think we can begin to see the table being set for diplomacy. But it's going to take a realization on the Russian side that they can't achieve militarily over time what they have set out to do. Admiral, that is a staggering number. One million dead or injured in the Russian-Ukraine war, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Is there a point at which

Vladimir Putin says enough is enough, or will he just be at this until he gets what he thinks, perhaps what he thought he was going to get a couple of years ago when he launched this attack on Ukraine? Yeah, first, let's do the numbers. Russia has a population pre-war of about 145 million. Half are men. Putin's only using men in this war. So let's say he starts out with 74, 75 million men, a million casualties. And here's another staggering figure. Estimates of between 500,000 and 800,000 young Russian males have left the country in order to avoid the draft. So this is bigger than just the casualties. It's the brain drain, because the ones who are leaving are the Internet savvy ones who have enough rubles in their pocket to make it to Kazakhstan or to the West. Many of them have gone to Germany, for example. So it is a real

blow to the heart of Russia's demographics. And to answer your question, yes, I think that light is going to go on. I think post-U.S. election, because both sides are going to want to see what kind of a deal are we going to get here. But the burn rate, frankly, on both sides of the line is very significant. Putin's burning through troops, as we've been discussing. Zelensky also burning a lot of troops, but also burning through Western support. How long will the money keep flowing? Both sides have a bad burn rate. And I think that drives us toward a negotiation

next year, probably, in my view, the ending of this thing could look and you're showing a map now right there, right what you're seeing now, a Korean war like ending Putin still in control. The quid pro quo, however, is the rest of Ukraine sails on democratic free as a pretty good shot at coming into NATO and coming into the EU. That's not a terrible outcome. I think that's probably how it lands because of these casualty rates. Let's show that map one more time, TJ, if we can. And as the Admiral said, unless something really dramatic happens, that's probably how the map looks when they sit down for a deal. Maybe not. Maybe it's dramatically shifted one way or the other. This is a year and a half ago. This is what the Pentagon said that this map was going to look like a year from now. And they were saying then this is a war of attrition, a World War One style war.

So they didn't see the lines moving much and they were exactly right. And it would beg the question, how many more years of bloodshed do both sides want until there is a solution that, again, will will give give Ukraine long term assurances of Western support of, if not a NATO membership, a quasi-NATO membership. Retired Admiral James Tavridis and Richard Haass, thank you both very much for coming on this morning. We appreciate it. Now to former President Trump, who held a rally on Long Island, New York yesterday, where he continued to push lies about Haitian migrants in Springfield, Ohio. Just flagrant lies out loud. Trump told the crowd he plans to travel soon to Springfield, Ohio. Just flagrant lies out loud. Trump told the crowd he plans to travel soon to Springfield as well as to Aurora, Colorado. Take a listen to some of his remarks.

How about in Springfield, Ohio? They had 32,000. This is a little beautiful town. No crime, no problem. 32,000 illegal immigrants come into the town, 32. So they almost doubled their population in a period of a few weeks. Can you believe it? And you know what? They've got to get much tougher. I'm going to go there in the next two weeks. I'm going to Springfield and I'm going to Aurora. You may never see me again, but that's OK. Got to do what I got to do. Whatever happened to Trump? Well, he never got out of Springfield. That's just not. Here's the Wall Street Journal front page told the pet eating story was untrue. Trump team spread it anyway. Yes. Front page of the Wall Street Journal. And we have a reporter. And the subhead here is Springfield, Ohio.

Officials informed Vance's staff that rumors were baseless. It did not matter. And now the town is in chaos. Joining us now, national reporter at The Wall Street Journal, Valerie Borlein. She has new reporting, as Joe said, on the Trump campaign, that they were told the rumors from Springfield were not true, but still push them. So if you could bring us inside this lie, what what's shocking to me is that it continues with wild abandon, with no shame. And is it the press is ignored? Is it that people are ignored? Yes, she reported on the story. So what? You know, I wonder what is inside your reporting in terms of how this all came to be? Well, we just heard the former president say that there are 32,000 migrants in Springfield.

And, you know, Governor DeWine and the mayor there says, actually, there are 15,000 Haitians that have moved there in the last four years legally, almost all of them legally, because, as we know, there's been a massive humanitarian crisis in Haiti. And actually, they've been welcomed to what we found was they've been welcomed to Springfield with open arms. There was a real labor crunch like so many places during the pandemic. And so the Haitians have been this community of Haitians have been in the small town of about 60,000 people. It has created a lot of pressure in the community as it would with a lot of new people. We just found no truth to the idea that they're there illegally or that there's any issues around the community, you know, eating people's pets, which is really a very serious claim to make. What are you finding in terms of what the campaign strategy is? I think what I was getting at is I appreciate that this is on the front page of your paper and that you're reporting on it, but it doesn't stick. Like usually, I don't know, in

decades past, in the good old days, if a campaign was called out, if a candidate was called out for lying in a cruel way, it would be something that stopped it in its tracks and created an investigation and interesting implications. And yet here it continues. You know, it really does. We heard what the president said. And also yesterday morning after the story appeared, J.D. Vance, who had originally tweeted about this issue, said, well, I choose to believe the stories are true. And we just, you know, we went there. We talked to people. We asked the police department for all of their records and the sheriff's office, the state wildlife division.

And there were just no reports that this was happening. So it is, you know, in journalism, it is discouraging that we are trying to vet these claims in good faith. And, you know, they just don't matter. I'm sure y'all's inbox is interesting. My inbox is full of people who said, you know, y'all aren't doing your jobs. And so I'm not sure we've reached a point where our reporting just doesn't break through with people sometimes. Valerie, good morning. You're right.

J.D. Vance, that's his reflex. Well, the media won't cover this story. They won't go fact check it. Well, they've been fact checking it since the beginning. You're on the ground fact checking it now. And to get to the core of your reporting this morning, the front page of The Wall Street Journal, the Vance team and the Trump campaign have pointed to this police report, they said, that showed a neighbor in Springfield, a woman had reported her pet missing and suspected it might have been taken by a Haitian immigrant. What happened from there? Well, you know, we the the campaign has said they had demonstrable evidence that these these pet kidnappings were happening and they provided a document. So we went to the home of the woman

who had reported her cat missing, and she was very apologetic. She found the cat missing five days later. It was in her basement, Miss Sassy. And she used her phone and her daughter to go next door and apologize to the Haitian immigrants living there. Oh, my God. But, you know, when we approached her, she was wearing a Trump T-shirt and had a Trump

poster. She still, she was apologetic that she was mistaken and had helped originate some of these claims. But she still supports the former president very strongly, as do many people who live here. So Ms. Sasse, just to underline, was in the basement and not eaten by the Haitian neighbor? But, you know, we live in a world where they call it viral for a reason. These stories spread really quickly. And Ms. Kilgore, the owner of the cat, had posted about it on Facebook in a small private Springfield group. And it gets out into the wider world.

And once those things start spreading, it is like a virus. It's very hard to find the origin or also to tamp it down. Wow. It's very hard to find the origin or also to tamp it down. Wow. The impact on Springfield writ large. I mean, there have been schools that have been closed. There has been bomb threats made against City Hall, against hospitals. And now Donald Trump suggests that in two weeks' time, he may go to Springfield.

What's the level of concern there about people who just feel like life's not going to return to normal? Well, it's been a very difficult time in Springfield. And I think one of the things that's so poignant about this story is that Springfield is America, right? I think there's 46 Springfields in this country. Springfield is the home of the Simpsons, Father Knows Best. It's just middle America. And the mayor is a Republican. And, you know, the governor's Republican. And J.D. Vance is from a town an hour away. And they know each other. And they're like, hey, this isn't happening here. But what is happening is we're having to close the schools. City Hall is on lockdown. We've had to close the DMV, all these places because of these rumors and fear and bomb threats. But, you know, it really, the people we talked to said they felt like they were under siege by a lie, really. All because Ms. Sasse was in the basement and not eaten by Haitian immigrants.

Literally, literally that started it. And Donald Trump and J.D. Vance are centering their campaign, the final stretch of their campaign on a lie about a cat that got downstairs. Despite this great reporting and the reporting of many others, it continues, which is staggering. And we're in a different we're in a different time. That's for sure. A dangerous one. The Wall Street Journal's Valerie Borland. Thank you very much for your great reporting. Great reporting, Valerie. Thank you. I appreciate it. Coming up, a judge has denied a bail request for music mogul P. Diddy. We have the latest on the mounting allegations against the hip hop star. Attorney Maya Wiley will join us

to weigh in on the case. But first, I would like to take a moment to remember someone who is extremely special to me and to all of us here at Morning Joe and especially members of the Know Your Value team. Vicky Neidig, the vice president of global medical and strategic initiatives at Comcast NBC Universal, lost a courageous five-year battle to cancer yesterday morning. So Vicky is the reason Know Your Value is a huge part of not just Morning Joe, but across all Comcast initiatives. More than a decade ago, Vicky believed in me and what I was creating with the Know Your Value mission to help everyone recognize and be recognized for their personal and professional value from the very start. And Vicki forged the Comcast Know Your Value partnership because it was who she was, someone who cares that everybody is getting what they need when they need it. If someone on the morning Joe staff looked a little bit down or off, it would be Vicki who would go right up to him and her, pull her aside and say, what's going on?

And if it was a health problem of any kind, she would light a fire under all the resources this company has to offer and cut through all the paperwork and get things done. And she would stay on it for months and months to make sure that person was okay. She stood up for causes and individual people. The Know Your Value team loved her so much that we even surprised her at one of our company events, declaring it Vicki Neidig Day. She was mad at me for that. We are sending prayers and comfort to all who knew and loved Vicki, especially her children, her family, her work family. Her daughter, Julia, continues to work for this company as a production manager at NBC Sports, advancing her mom's legacy and leadership. And we're proud of Julia. Vicki Neidig was 64 years old. A second judge has ruled music mogul Sean Diddy Combs will not be released on bail.

Diddy's legal team appealed for his pretrial freedom from what they call horrific jail conditions after the first judge determined he should remain detained while awaiting trial. The government argued Combs is a threat to the community based on allegations of violent acts detailed in the indictment and a flight risk because of his immense wealth. Combs' legal team asked the judge whether he would consider a transfer from a detention center in Brooklyn to a facility in New Jersey. The judge asked the defense to file on the question of location by Monday. A hearing on the status of the case is set for October 9th. Joining us now, president and CEO of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights, attorney Maya Wiley.

She is author of the new memoir, Remember, You Are a Wiley. And we will get to the book in just a moment. Maya, thanks so much for being here. Let's start with these allegations you and I were just discussing. Once this indictment was opened to read through the details, it truly, truly turns your stomach. If this is true, he is pleaded not guilty to these charges. What else should people watching know about this case this morning and about how long this went on as well? Yeah, sadly and disgustingly, when we read this indictment, it's that powerful people get to be predators for a very long time because their wealth, their position enables them to protect themselves from the law in ways that neither you or I could. But this is the point. I mean, when you read,

it's not just reading that indictment. We saw the videotape of Cassandra Ventura being viciously beaten by Sean Combs in a hallway. These are very consistent with the allegations that are in the indictment. But it's no surprise then that he was denied bail. It was the right thing to do in this case because as prosecutors had shown, he has also threatened witnesses. So in addition to having the money and the power to flee, it is also that he has the power and the resources to intimidate witnesses that might appear against him in court. And there was a case in which that very thing happened, where a witness changed her tune after getting 54 phone calls, threatening phone calls from him, according to prosecutors. And she changed her tune when she had been corroborating another band member of hers who claimed that she had been groped and mistreated by Combs. So the pattern of behavior, not just in the allegations, but in allegations from others,

what we know and what we've seen that's already in the public sphere, and the fact that he has an incredible empire. And I think that's the point. He has an empire and that empire can be used to protect him from very serious claims. Yeah. When we ask ourselves, how did this go on allegedly for so long? It's exactly what you say. It's money, intimidation, fear. People didn't want to speak out. And sometimes, as we've seen in all these cases over these last several years, it takes one courageous person to come out and say, I've got to say something and there have to be more like me. And obviously, when that video came out, his ex-girlfriend being beaten inside of a hotel, that changed everything here. Well, and also her lawsuit. I mean, to your point about bravery, if you have been beaten and abused for years and have seen the

power that protects that abuse, it's very brave even just to file a civil complaint because you know the money, the resources, the PR machinery that's going to come and attack you. And remember that Sean Combs settled that case very, very quickly. But it was one of those damn breaking episodes that also helps other women come forward. When one woman comes forward, it often does what we've seen it do here, which is others come forward, too. And so what is Combs facing here in terms of potential penalties, jail time? If if this is proven in a court of law. What is he looking at here? Well, look, you know, these are very serious charges because remember, it's sex trafficking and racketeering. So, and there are many, many counts here.

If he's convicted of all of them, he could be going away for a very long time. It would seem so. We'll keep a close eye on that. I want to turn to the book. Again, it's a memoir titled, Remember Remember You Are a Wiley. Congratulations. I know it's a long time coming. These are never easy to pour everything out onto the page. Let's start with the title. What does it come from? I will try not to cry. Okay. But thank you for the kind words.

Look, Remember You Are a Wiley is what my father's mother, my grandmother would say to her six children, her six black children, when they would leave her doorway every day and very religious, had every expectation that their children would not only have confidence and pride in themselves, but would ensure that how they showed up in public carried that name with pride and also made sure that they stayed within the values and the principles of the family. You know, that they did right, that they didn't do wrong, that they behaved, and that they brought pride to the family. And it was something that even my cousins, my generation, you know, reverberates through all of us. And I think for me was the constant call of how do I do this? How do we do this? What kind of conversation should we be having with each other, Willie, about what it means in a society that's descending into the depths of deep, overt racism again? How do we show up? You clearly carried that inspiration with you through your life, rising to become such a prominent attorney yourself and all the things you've done. And we've been so lucky to get to know you here on set over the years. How did this stick in the back of your mind as you continued your rise? You know, there's so many moments and they're in the book. I mean, my it's as much a book about my parents

as well as me, because they so shaped me and they so shaped in their own activism and as civil rights activists, how you show up. You know, and it's part of what was always in the back of my mind is they they always believed in both pushing as hard as you can for justice, for what was right, for being bold, for thinking that you can end poverty and knowing that you should try whether you can or not. But it's that second point try whether you can or not. But it's that second point, whether you can or not. You know, my father was once asked by a friend of his, this has always stuck with me, whose friend said, well, George, when do you stop? When do you stop? And he said,

when there's no more people who are hungry and poor. And she said to him, well, that's, there's always going to be hungry and poor people. And his answer was, then you never stop. And that was the point. The fight itself was worth fighting. And you were going to do something. And you were going to do it for someone if you just kept doing it. And it was that kind of determination. But they also did it with incredible compassion. So they could be militant. They were very radical in their day, right? They were calling for real change. They wanted to put money in the pockets of black women on welfare.

They wanted multiracial coalition building. They wanted to end poverty. They wanted to end war. They wanted all these things. And at the same time, they actually believe deeply in conversation. They believe deeply in building the tent. They believe deeply that we had to be able to have these relationships even when we disagree. And they really demonstrated that compassion and that you could be an activist and be a compassionate activist.

And that's really what always stuck with me is how not to descend. We're allowed to be angry and we have a right to be angry. But anger isn't about abusing another person or denying the possibility of reaching another person. Joe, you know, Maya, you say something that really, really touches me because I can relate to it so well here you have a family from the north a family of faith very progressive i was raised in a family uh in the deep south very religious very conservative and yet the message that i got from my family, you know, was, you know, remember you are a Wiley. They didn't say, remember you're a Scarborough or remember you're a Clark. They were like, remember that you are Jewel's grandson. My grandmother who raised four children

in extreme poverty in rural Georgia. My mother always said she had one dress, but that dress was always washed every day and always ironed when she walked off to school. And this is such an important message for our children. Our children go through these problems. I have a very close friend that reminded me of this when I was saying, well, I'm having this problem with, what do we do? And I said, remind them that you're family and remind them that Jewel lived by a set of values. Show respect to others. Be polite to others. Forgive others and be grateful for all God has given you. And I will tell you, kids respond to that.

You are a wily. What a powerful message. Instead of us just putting pictures of our kids up all over the house and saying, how great. Here's your participation trophy. You know, we have pictures of Jewel in front of a shack in our house from 1911. And I know you you have the same thing. Just that is such an important message, isn't it? And it's a message we need to send to our kids. Remember who you are. Joe, thank you for sharing that. It's so important. And the word I want to really lift out that you said was gratitude. You know, my parents both believe in my mother was white and grew up

in racist West Texas. So I know exactly what you're talking about and how you actually try to cross that bridge of racial divide, of recognizing that that very poverty that your family experienced, Joe, and that so many black families were experiencing was exactly the bridge my father was also trying to build, but confronting race. But that word gratitude was such an important part of my parents' training of me and of thinking about what it meant to be a Wiley, because if we aren't grateful for what we have, it's very hard to find the compassion to try to reach across and understand and move others. And I have found that an incredibly important word and value in my own upbringing. The new memoir is entitled Remember you are a wiley maya wiley thank you very much for sharing

it with us congratulations on the book congrats thanks for coming on the show