Morning Joe - Morning Joe: Marathon Senate vote on Trump's big bill drags out as Republicans struggle to find path to passage

Episode Date: July 1, 2025

The Republican-controlled Senate held a marathon voting session Monday on President Donald Trump’s massive tax cut and spending bill, stretching out for more than 14 hours without a clear path to an endgame.

We're going to pass this bill one way or the other, and I have prevailed upon my Senate colleagues to please, please, please, get it as close to the House as possible. Please, please, please, House Speaker Mike Johnson pleading with the Senate to keep its version of President Trump's mega bill as close as possible to what the House passed back in May. Good morning, welcome to Morning Joe. It is Tuesday, July 1st. I'm Willie Geist. Great to passed back in May. Good morning, welcome to Morning Joe. It is Tuesday, July 1st. I'm Willie Geist, great to be back with you. The Senate is nearly a full day now into a voterama, as it's called, on the Republican Party's

massive policy legislation that President Trump calls the big, beautiful bill. Lawmakers began to speed up the process around two o'clock in the morning after Majority Leader John Thune announced a new share of amendments, telling lawmakers he was limiting votes to 10 minutes apiece. The bill will fail to pass if just four Republicans vote no. That's the margin. If the Senate does pass this bill by the skin of its teeth, its version then also does have to go back and pass the House

as Congress tries to meet the White House deadline of July 4th, which is Friday. Late last night, several conservatives huddled with Speaker Thune as it became Leader Thune as it became clear an amendment they were pushing to further reduce Medicaid spending did not have the votes to pass. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the Senate's bill would add more than $3 trillion to the national debt while also cutting federal spending bill would add more than $3 trillion to the national debt while also cutting federal spending on Medicaid by more than a trillion dollars. The legislation would result in nearly 12 million Americans losing insurance by the

year 2034, all of that according to the CBO. Meanwhile, we heard lawmakers frustrated about the process for a number of reasons, including this one from Democratic Senator John Fetterman of Pennsylvania. Oh my God, I just want to go home. I've missed our entire trip to the beach. My family's going to be back before we, and that. So, and again, I'm going to vote no.

There's no drama. The votes are going to go. In fact no drama. The votes are going to go. In fact, the only interesting votes are going to be on the margin, whether that's Collins or Johnson and those, but all the Democrats, we all know how that's going to go. And I think I don't think it's really helpful to put people here till when it's some ungodly hour. Man just wants to get to the beach. Let's bring in managing editor at the Bulwwork, Sam Stein, the host of Way Too Early, Ali

Vitale, and congressional reporter for The Hill, Michael Schnell. Good morning to you all. Ali, let me start with you. Back on the beat this morning and in style with this Votorama, which the name is a lot more fun than the process itself, actually. So just for viewers waking up this morning, we're nearly 24 hours into this process. What is happening as we sit here right now and how soon might they get to the point where the Senate is ready to vote in full on this thing?

Yeah, I've long said this. Votoramas sound extremely fun, but they are actually quite painful. And you're watching some of these senators show the pain. I mean, just a few hours ago, we saw Senator Chuck Grassley sitting in the well of the Senate, where the Senate pages usually sit, looking dejected. But at that point, they had been going since 9.45 in the morning yesterday, working now throughout the night. And look, this is both part of the process, but then also a stalling tactic for Senate

leadership, who are still actively cobbling together the votes here. On the one hand, votaras are meant to be lengthy. It's an amendment process. It's a chance for Democrats to jam Republicans on issues like shoring up food assistance programs that are being cut in this bill, shoring up Medicaid, rural hospitals. All of those are pieces that Democrats and even some Republicans have tried to force votes on to try to make tweaks and changes to this bill. Most of those have failed, but they will resurface in the form of campaign ads later in the 2026

cycle. But then there's the piece of this where they're just trying to buy themselves some time. Leader John Thune has had members shuttling in and out of his office. And many of those members are the ones that Senator Federman are saying are going to be interesting to watch here. I've got a list in front of me. You've got people like the usual names that we often talk about, Senators Lisa Murkowski

and Susan Collins. Both of them have said that they have problems with this bill for Murkowski. It became even more difficult because the Senate parliamentarian ruled that one of the key pieces that was in this bill that could have helped her get to yes was actually not okay in this bill.

It didn't meet the rules that the parliamentarian sees as being germane to this process. So that could make this a more difficult yes vote for Murkowski. But then you've also got the absolute nos, people like Rand Paul and Tom Tillis. Tom Tillis newly unshackled because he is saying that he's not going to run for reelection. Then of course there's Ron Johnson of, who has been clear that he has concerns about the deficit pieces on this. And then you've got other people like Rick Scott of Florida, Mike Lee of Utah, who have other provisions

that they are trying to see if they can get in to make this a more palatable yes vote for them. I do think that, ultimately, the politics of Trumpism are gonna win out here, but it's a tough morning to wake up for Republicans here Willie as they're still trying to get the votes together as they're nearing what could be one of the longest voter Ramos ever in the Yeah, Michael Schnell over the last decade or so It's been a pretty safe bet to say Republicans in the end will side with Donald Trump and get to the vote that he wants

Them to get to he's applying new pressure with social media posts overnight sending out JD Vance get to he's applying new pressure with social media posts overnight sending out JD Vance posting others as well kind of really putting their foot on the gas on some of these Republicans but as Ali said you've got two hard nos in Senators Tom Tillis and Rand Paul that leaves you not much wiggle room they can get three and let Vice President Vance break the tie but if they get to four they're done so what's your sense of the whip count right now? It seems as Ali laid out that you have Tom Tillis and Ron Johnson who are absolute nos at this moment. Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins seem to be leaning now with their concerns about Medicaid cuts and then you have a host of fiscal Republicans, fiscal hawks who it really seems unclear what way

they will go. These are people like Rick Scott, Ron Johnson, and Mike Lee. Essentially, those three had held out support for the budget, for the procedural vote on over the weekend, saying they weren't going to support it. But what clinched their support was John Thune saying that he would back an amendment vote, he would hold an amendment vote and support an amendment vote to implement additional Medicaid cuts in the bill. And now it seemed that that was going to help those three fiscal hawks get on board in the end. Well, that amendment hasn't come up yet and it seems as though it is doomed to fail. There are a number of Republicans

who said they don't plan to support it. Someone like Josh Hawley, for example, said that he is not in support of that amendment. So with those Medicaid changes, those additional beefed up Medicaid cuts not being implemented in the bill, it is unclear where those three fiscal hawks go. And so I think that really the more difficult part of this for John Thune right now is this is not a concentrated group of defectors. This is not a group of opponents that all have the same qualms. He's dealing with a number of different pressure points. So you put out a fire in one corner, it could create a fire in another corner. That's the difficult

juggling act that Thune is dealing with right now that, quite frankly, he's been dealing with nearly the past 24 hours. So Sam, what's your sense of the nose-holding that may be going on by some Republicans who consider themselves conservatives over the course of their political career voting for something that's going to add $3.3 trillion dollars according to the CBO to the debt over the next 10 years. It's going to gut Medicaid. That's what Senator Collins is arguing for here. We've got to get this Medicaid money to rural hospitals in states like Maine, but in states

across the country. It's how those hospitals exist. Is this a painful vote for many Republicans to take? Well, first of all, are we just going to skip past the fact that Allie said Votoramas sound cool? They do not sound cool. I know. It sounds fun, I think she said.

It does sound fun. They don't sound fun. It's like a carnival ride. No, they don't sound fun, and she shouldn't get a pass for that. And secondly, can we, I would like to talk a little bit about that. Good morning. I would like to talk a little bit about that Federmann clip, unbelievable.

I get to the beach, I mean, come on, you have a job to do, just do the job, man. To your question, this is like a really interesting process to a degree. It's also very scary, right? Like we're looking at 16 million people potentially losing their health care coverage, all things considered. A massive blow to the deficit and debt, all to finance a tax extension that skews primarily

for the really, really rich. To your question, yeah, there are some members who care ostensibly about deficit and debt who are uncomfortable with this, but what you're seeing is just the gravitational pull of Trumpism just wins out for a lot of these people. And so, I know we're talking about, well, can Ron Johnson and Mike Lee really get to this bill? And if they, will their amendment pass and can that determine the vote?

I think we sort of know the answer is that, yeah, we'll find a way to get to the bill, right? It's like Josh Hawley spent months saying, all right, we can't cut Medicaid for people. We can't cut Medicaid for people. Then he's like, you know what? This bill will cut Medicaid for people, but I'll vote for it because I'm going to then work to stop it from cutting Medicaid for people. And it's like, well, how do you rationalize this stuff?

So it really just comes down to, you know, will Lisa Murkowski get bought off by a few carve up provisions that allow Alaska to escape the worst consequences of this legislation. And that's literally what we're talking about. Can they prevent this legislation from harming one state enough that that state senator will say, you know what?

I'll allow it to happen to 49 other states, but my state's fine and therefore she votes for the bill. And that's kind of a messed up way to do legislation. Now, will it then pass the House? I don't know, probably because Trumpism prevails usually. But if you just step back and you look at the process by which they're putting this together, no one's seen the final text of this bill.

We just got considerations, but they're still putting together this bill. And the expectation is that they're just gonna turn around and vote for it in like a matter of hours. It's really, really weird, odd, probably not the best way to write massive legislation like this. Yeah. And you mentioned the house, the freedom caucus in the house is not pleased with what it's watching in the Senate in terms of the debt and the deficit. So just weeks after he said he will step back from politics to focus on his businesses, Elon Musk is back in the fray, again, publicly bashing this Republican mega

bill. In a social media post yesterday, Musk wrote, it is obvious with the insane spending of this bill, which increases the debt ceiling by a record $5 trillion, that we live in a one-party country, the Porky Pig Party," he writes. Time for a new political party that actually cares about the people. Musk followed up with another post calling for the creation of the America Party. If the quote, insane spending bill passes, Musk then continued his online rant, writing any lawmaker who votes for the mega bill, quote, should hang their head in shame. Threatened to primary those politicians next year, quote,

if it is the last thing I do on this earth. President Trump, as you can imagine, responded overnight on social media, writing in part, Elon may get more subsidy than any human being in history by far, and without subsidies, Elon would probably have to close up shop and head back home to South Africa. No more rocket launches, satellites, or electric car production, and our country would save

a fortune. Perhaps we should have Doge take a good, hard look at this. Big money to be saved, writes the President of the United States in a post-overnight Alleyitaly. So, Elon Musk has expressed, Ali, his dismay about this bill previously, then walked back a little bit from his personal criticism of Donald Trump, but now kind of getting back to the policy on the debt and the deficit. Obviously, he has invested interest in this bill not passing. Does this matter at all, this pressure from Elon Musk matter

if he says he's going to primary anyone who votes for it? So when there was the initial explosion of the personal relationship between Musk and Trump, there was the entertainment factor of watching these two men go back and forth on social media. But then there was also the more tangible threat of what will Musk do with his money? The power of the Musk purse was so tangible and palpable in the early weeks of the Trump administration. You'll remember during the confirmation battles, many of the members on Capitol Hill

were quietly whispering about the fact that Musk was saying that they would primary people who weren't marching in lockstep with the president's agenda. So Michael, now here we are with members saying that, with Musk saying, if you actually vote for this bill, I'm gonna potentially fund primaries against you and I think it puts these Republican members in exactly the same dynamic that they were in when Musk was actually on

Trump's team. They're getting squeezed now in a different way but Musk's money was always the central energizing factor for their actions. The question is what happens when the money comes in contrast with the Trump of it all. Right. And, you know, what's interesting about Musk's lobbying right now is he seems to be targeting people intentionally. We spoke about this earlier. He specifically went after the House Freedom Caucus yesterday, saying, how could you call yourself the Freedom Caucus if you're going to support a bill that would add trillions

of dollars to the deficit? He knows all in well that the Freedom Caucus includes members who really hate this bill but are grappling with the fact of, well, can I oppose it and agree with what I want to do policy-wise? But politically, that'll get me in a lot of hot water with President Trump. So it's interesting because the Trump-Musk factor is kind of playing in with the legislation as well, and you also have that then threat of the primary. What folks may be considering is, well, fine, you know, I know that I may not want to get

the wrath of a Musk primary challenge. Yes, he has money, but there's a lot of questions about the candidates he backs, whether or not they could actually win right recruitment. But at the end of the day, it's also the ire of Trump, which is going to outweigh Musk, I think, in a lot of ways. But it's interesting who he's targeting, because he's sort of, he's getting the people who are on the fence, but will they take the bait? I'm not sure.

And Sam, you had Elon Musk saying yesterday he's going to support Congressman Thomas Massey's reelection to the Republican from Kentucky because he voted against the bill in the House, trying to prep symbolic, suggesting, I will support candidates who vote against this. But the same question to you, does this pressure from Elon Musk on members matter at this point, or is their loyalty to Donald Trump more important to them? I'm kind of surprised by how little it seems to matter

at this point, right? Like, he's the world's richest man. He could fund, to a huge degree degree primary challenges or general election campaigns. He also was the Republican Party's biggest donor. And then for a while he was the most important aid in the White House. And yet in a matter of weeks, he's gone from someone who's just sort of lobbing Twitter criticisms and making threats that people are largely ignoring. So maybe on the margins, like sure, Tom Mattsie will gladly take the help. Maybe there

are a few fiscal conservatives who might think, well, I can walk this plank perhaps if Elon's with me. But I think a more effective way honestly would be if Elon Musk would just like say to some centrist independence, primary, some house moderate. That would go further. Of course, hanging over all this is what Trump threatened, which is that Elon Musk has huge amounts of business with the federal government that are just hanging out there. I mean, just yesterday, I think SpaceX scored, or was announced that SpaceX scored an $81.6 million contract

to launch US military weather monitoring balloons. I mean, that's a huge amount of money. And we know that Trump's pretty vindictive. So, you know, we're in a weird place, but I do ultimately think Trumpism is more important to Republicans than Elon's money. Yeah, for their political survival. All right, Sam, we're going to let you and Ali patch things up as we go to break here. Meanwhile, Congressional reporter for The Hill, Michael Schnell.

Michael, thanks so much. Still ahead on Morning Joe, President Trump is set to host Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for talks at the White House next week amid a renewed push for a ceasefire in Gaza. One of the latest out of the Middle East. Plus, jury deliberations underway in the criminal trial for Sean Diddy Combs. But there appears to be a problem with one juror in those deliberations, we'll explain. And a reminder, the Morning Joe podcast is available each and every weekday, featuring

our full conversations and analysis. You can listen wherever you get your podcasts. You are watching Morning Joe on the first day of July. We'll be right back. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ will open at record highs after capping their best quarter in over a year. Trade talks with China and the UK have fueled some optimism that an all-out trade war can be minimized.

The Dow added 276 points in yesterday's session. President Trump could soon settle a lawsuit with the media giant Paramount, the parent company of CBS News. The president's lawyers accused the news network of misleadingly editing a 60 minutes interview with Kamala Harris during the 2024 campaign. CBS News has denied wrongdoing, say it was routine editing for time. According to a legal filing on Monday, both sides are quote engaged in good faith and advanced settlement negotiations. We'll see where that settles

out. And there was an amazing weather phenomenon in Portugal on Sunday when a rare roll cloud spread over the northern and central coast. Look at this. Tube shaped clouds, they move horizontally, they form when there's a significant clouds spread over the northern and central coasts. Look at this. Tube-shaped clouds they move horizontally. They form when there's a significant difference in temperature between the land and sea surfaces. Europe has been gripped by a record-breaking heat wave in recent days. What a picture. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will visit the White House next Monday, his third trip to Washington during Donald Trump's second term.

The visit comes just weeks after the U.S. brokered a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran following American airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites. Since then, attention has returned to Israel's war against Hamas in the Gaza Strip, as President Trump renews his push for a ceasefire there and for a hostage release deal. Negotiations over Gaza remain stalled, with both Israel and Hamas holding firm to their demands. Citing local medical officials in Gaza, The New York Times reports an Israeli airstrike hit a beachfront café in Gaza City yesterday, killing more than 24 people and injuring dozens

of others. Joining us now at the table, President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haas. He's the author of the weekly newsletter, Home and Away, available on Substack. Richard, always great to see you, my friend. Morning, Willie. So let's talk about Prime Minister Netanyahu's visit to the White House on Monday. You've been writing on Substack lately about this relationship between Donald Trump, where

he's shown a willingness to push back against Netanyahu and many of our allies, actually, at times when he thinks it's warranted. So what's sort of hanging in the air as these two men sit together in the Oval Office? There's lots hanging in the air. I mean, as you say, the United States, America first doesn't necessarily mean Israel first. The president, if you remember, pushed back against Netanyahu on attacking Iran. Israelis wanted to do it too. US had its own deal with the Houthis. They had their own deal with Hamas.

You could go on and on. On the other hand, the president is intervening in Israeli politics right now, essentially saying that the legal case against Bibi Netanyahu should be dropped. This is an interesting relationship. President Dose, if you remember, when he ran, said one of his goals to bring about a ceasefire in Gaza, to bring the hostages back home. You had a deal, which the new administration then and the old administration jointly brought about.

Then the Israelis balked at the second phase of it. The whole idea was to get the hostages back. The Israelis would have had to agree to a ceasefire and a pullout from Gaza. So that's still where things stand. And things have gotten worse, as you just saw on that story. A lot of people are being killed. And the people of Gaza, the two million residents, are being packed into ever, ever smaller pieces of territory.

So life there is unimaginably awful. So the question is, can now the administration resurrect the basis of a ceasefire? As you watch this, this latest beachfront attack, a missile strike in Gaza City, what at this point now is the end game for Bibi Netanyahu? In other words, if President Trump is trying to negotiate a ceasefire and things like this are happening, where does Prime Minister Netanyahu want this to end for Israel? What does he want? Look, what he wants to do is have this end, but in a manner, Willie, that he can stay on as prime minister and escape his legal consequences. So it's all caught up in that. The good news is that Bibi Netanyahu has more political standing now because of Iran.

So he may have a little bit more strength, a little bit more potential to compromise. He would like to get the hostages back. That would be a big win. All Israelis want to see that. The question is, how does he do that in a way that he hasn't eliminated Hamas? Hamas still has a role. And how do you keep order in Gaza? The Israelis still, here it is, what? It's over a year and a half since October 7th. They're still not a serious plan, a viable plan for what comes afterwards. Right now, the security situation in Gaza is a mixture

of Israeli occupation and gangs. Let's be honest. And the question is, how do you get something where the Israelis don't have to be there, Hamas can't revive? The only idea people can think of is some type of an Arab force, but to have an Arab force, you'd have to have a large Palestinian component in that force. What's something the Israelis balk at? Because they don't want to do anything in Gaza that would give momentum, that would impart momentum to Palestinian nationalism. So that's been the dilemma all along. The real question, quite honestly, is how hard does Donald Trump push Bibi Netanyahu?

Because right now, if he pushed Bibi Netanyahu, Trump actually is more popular than anybody in Israel. And if the Israelis didn't like what Donald Trump were doing, guess what? Who do they go to here? They're going to go to Chuck Schumer? There's no way to do an end run around Donald Trump. So Trump has enormous leverage. If, big if, he decides to use it on Bibi Netanyahu.

A popularity obviously enhanced by President Trump's decision to attack those nuclear sites inside Iran and now trying to broker some kind of a conversation between Israel and Iran. What does that even look like in terms of a ceasefire, which is fragile to say the least? Well, it's fragile and it doesn't really address the real issue, which is Iran. Right now the Iranians have two goals. One is to make sure their regime survives.

And there's been really some dark stories coming out of Iran about how they're going around the country looking for anyone who they think may have been cooperating with Israel or whatever. But regime survival is the big thing. The second is whether at some point the Iranians decide what they want to do is reconstitute their nuclear program in a way that it can't be reached by Israeli or American missiles or bombs or what have you. And I think that's a long-term challenge.

So even though we talked about obliteration, the reality is we didn't. Elements of the Iranian nuclear program survived in the three sites we attacked. Elements of it survived, which were never there, that had been moved out. So I think there's a long-term issue between Iran and both Israel and the United States about what's going to happen with this nuclear program. Can it be resolved diplomatically? That would be a long shot. Can it be dealt with militarily?

That might be something necessary down the road. But I think that's where we are. This problem hasn't gone away. It's just reached a new chapter. Meanwhile, President Trump signed an executive order yesterday ending several economic sanctions on Syria. According to Treasury officials, the EO is designed to end Syria's isolation from the international financial system.

The move does not rescind sanctions imposed on former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who was ousted last winter. President Trump also threatened new tariffs on Japan over stalled trade talks yesterday, criticizing its refusal to import U.S. rice. also threatened new tariffs on Japan over stalled trade talks yesterday, criticizing its refusal to import U.S. rice. Politico reports Japan has insisted any deal must remove U.S. tariffs on Japanese-made automobiles and auto parts. Trump's threat came as Japan's top trade negotiator with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard

Lutnick in Washington. They met and sat for a little while. So two very different stories there. Let's start at the end with Japan, which gets at your piece. Donald Trump is not afraid to go after allies as much as adversaries in some case. No. Indeed, it's easier to go after allies because you have more to do with allies almost by definition.

And yeah, allies don't get special treatment. This is the most unsentimental American foreign policy we've ever seen. It doesn't really matter if you're an ally. And if anything, at times, Donald Trump seems to like adversaries. Look at his relationship with Russia. He wants a big deal with China. He's been pushing around Canada, Willie. Canada backed off on the latest tax they introduced.

The U.S.-Japan relationship's been really rocky. This is the world's third largest economy. Look, the administration, just take a step back for a second. The administration has put into place all these tariffs. It's said time-limited goals for itself, 90 days to get things done. It can't do it. So we've got a situation now where the administration has to figure out how to deal with all these trade relationships in a time period that is essentially unmanageable. And I

think you're going to see interim deals, you're going to see certain punting, putting the thing down the road. But this is complicated with the Japanese and others. These agreements usually take years to negotiate. The idea that you're going to do a 100 of them in a matter of two or three months, it's not on. So we're going to have to either delay it or accept kind of minimal agreements. Canada, we're negotiating with them right now. We're all over the place on the on the tariff.

Sam Stein, you got one for Richard. Well, let me just say to Richard, it's very easy how to see this is resolved. Donald Trump says we need more time and I'm going to give myself more time. And there you go. Problem solved. I love negotiating. I want to go back to the Middle East because there's something really interesting happening with respect to Trump, Bibi and domestic politics here.

Because Bibi, one of the constraining factors, as I understood it for him, with respect to Gaza but other areas, was that he had even more hawkish members of his government who were saying, you cannot take your foot off the gas. And I'm wondering, does the ability of Israel to hit Iranian nuclear sites with the support of the president, does this apparent breakthrough diplomatically with Syria over the Golan Heights. Do those things allow Bibi to have a little bit more room to operate to get a Gaza deal? Or do we just think Bibi just doesn't really want a deal? He's had various off-ramps over the past year and a half. Maybe he just doesn't want a deal.

They are serious about occupation of Gaza and moving the Palestinians out and building some sort of Mar-a-Lago on the Med. And I just want to know what your take is on that dynamic. It's a fair question. And your supposition, though, is right. Bibi Netanyahu does have more mobility politically right now because of what happened with Iran. He changed the conversation. And what he did was something that brought Israelis together. There's no doves in Israel when it comes to Iran or the nuclear program. So this was a really useful thing for him to have done in that sense, Sam. I think he wants a deal.

He just doesn't want to deal at what he would see the price or the cost of a quote-unquote a Palestinian, a Palestinian nationalism gaining a lot of momentum. So he's trying to somehow parse that. So I think he's open to it, quote unquote, in principle, but not at what he would see at any price. But I do think politically, Bibi Netanyahu is stronger. That's the bottom line. So I think this is a moment, if Donald Trump wants to, to push.

And because I actually think the threat to blow up the Israeli government now is a little bit more empty than it than it It was before and so I would push I actually think you know right now Nothing's going on with Ukraine and Russia the war is grinding on and getting worse Iran was dealt with militarily for the time being so this is the one diplomatic opportunity Donald Trump has dealt with militarily for the time being. So this is the one diplomatic opportunity Donald Trump has to make some progress. And I think this would in the long run be big. And so I would, he should certainly press it.

He should certainly explore it. And by the way, it would also help with the Saudis. Something Donald Trump very much wants to do is to bring them into the so-called Abraham Accords, bring them into the diplomatic process. This is potentially a win-win for the administration. And they'll get a chance to do all of that when the two men meet face-to-face at the White House on Monday.

President Emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations, Richard Haass. Richard, great to have you as always. Have a good fourth. All right, you too. Coming up, the suspect accused of killing four college students in Idaho appears to have reached a plea deal with prosecutors that likely will take the death penalty off the table. I'll tell you why. Not everyone is happy about that. MSNBC legal analyst Danny Savalos joins us to break down that case as well as the rocky start to jury deliberations in

the criminal trial of Sean Diddy Combs. We'll explain when Morning Joe comes right back. when morning Joe comes right back. Hours into deliberations in the criminal trial for Sean Diddy Combs, the jury sent a note to the judge expressing concerns over one of its members. NBC News correspondent Chloe Malas has details. Only about an hour after the case of Sean Diddy Combs was turned over to the jury, already a potential wild card in the deliberation room.

The jury delivering a note to the judge saying one juror is not following instructions. He's a 51-year-old scientist with a PhD. It was unclear whether or not there was a concern about following the legal instructions or the other instructions about how to approach the case. Is it too late to replace a juror? It's not. The judge can, but it would be a big deal once deliberation start. The case is complex and sprawling combs charged with 5 federal counts

including racketeering sex trafficking and transportation to engage in prostitution. In this courthouse 8 men and 4 women are sitting through 7 weeks of testimony from 34 witnesses as media from all over the world await a verdict. As jurors began deliberating in the courtroom, Combs' family joined hands and prayed. Prosecutors allege Combs ran a criminal enterprise, wielding his power to have employees carry out illegal activity on his behalf.

They also argued that he used violence, drugs and threats of blackmail to coerce former girlfriends Cassie Ventura and another referred to only as Jane, to have sex with male escorts while he watched. In contrast, the defense not calling any witnesses, resting their case in 30 minutes, Combs declined to take the stand. But in closing arguments, his lead attorney Mark Agnifilo said all sexual encounters were consensual, saying Combs had a swinger's lifestyle.

Agnifilo also arguing that this video of Combs beating Ventura at a Los Angeles hotel in 2016 is evidence of domestic violence, not sex trafficking. Going so far as to call their relationship a great modern love story. Wow. Chloe Milas reporting there. Let's bring in NBC News and MSNBC Legal Analyst, Danny Savalos. Danny, good to see you this morning. So let's go back for a minute and talk about juror number three.

Fellow jurors saying to the judge that this juror is not following the judge's instructions. Potentially in your experience, what could that mean exactly? Yeah, Willie, in all trials, and especially in high-profile trials, a lot of the judge's job is managing juror shenanigans. You'd be amazed at how often, if you've served on jury duty or any lawyers who've tried cases, they know that jurors do the darnedest things. So this may just be something where the judge can admonish the juror, bring him out in front of the parties and tell the juror what to do, or it might be something that really becomes

a problem. And if it does, they can get rid of the juror and slide in one of the alternate jurors. They took a large number, the maximum number of alternate jurors, six, as opposed to the normal two that they take in trials such as this in anticipation of exactly these issues that might come up. So let's talk about the argument here, Danny, that is being made by the defense team for Sean Combs. I was taken aback coming out of Chloe's piece there when it was described as a great love

story based on that video we were just watching seconds beforehand. Is it a compelling case? You follow this very closely to the jury, which is what you're seeing in the video, that's domestic violence. He was a bad guy in certain moments, but we're talking about a sex trafficking ring and he was not doing that. Yeah, this was always going to be the defense's theme because they really had no other choice. Things like that hotel video, you can't get around that. So the theme was always going to be some version of, look, we own the fact that Sean Combs

may have committed domestic violence, that he may have committed assault, but he's not seated here charged with those crimes. Those are crimes that belong in state court. The crimes he's charged with are very specific federal crimes. He's not a racketeer. He may be an abuser. He's not a racketeer. He may be an abuser. He's not a racketeer. He's not a sex trafficker.

Those are very specific federal crimes, and this is an overblown case. That's essentially their argument. It was always going to be their argument because they really didn't have a lot of other avenues. So Danny, if you're the defense attorney for Sean Combs this morning, jury's deliberating, given the way the testimony has gone, given the way the trial has gone to this point, how are you feeling right now about your chances? Well, defense attorneys of this caliber are always feeling confident. They have to be to get to their level, but the reality is federal court is not a pleasant place for attorneys

like me to be the conviction rate is well into the mid 90 percentile so the odds are that the jury will convict and here's the thing they may be in that jury room saying look this doesn't feel like it should have been a federal case we agree with defense counsel that this was really about domestic violence but the problem is this. The jury instructions will tell them that the elements are the elements of the crime, and the government has really put in at least enough evidence, if believed, to find Combs guilty. The real issue is, was this evidence credible?

Did they believe these witnesses, who at times ranged from credible to maybe not so credible. That's the key, credibility. And we'll see how quickly that jury comes back, deliberating again this morning. Danny, I want to ask you about another case. Brian Coburger, the man accused of fatally stabbing four college students at the University of Idaho, appears ready to accept a deal to plead guilty to those killings. One victim's family and their attorney said they learned about the apparent deal in a letter from prosecutors adding they gave the possibility of a plea, a quote, hard no.

That's from the family. According to the Idaho statesman, the letter said the plea deal will ensure Coburger's conviction and secure life in prison for him. It would not spare him the death penalty. NBC News, it would, excuse me it would not spare him the death penalty. NBC News, it would, excuse me, it would spare him the death penalty. NBC News has not verified the letter's contents. Coburger was charged with four counts of first degree murder and burglary for the 2022 killings of four University of Idaho students at an off-campus home.

His trial was scheduled to begin next month. So to be clear from what we know about this, Danny, this deal, he would accept responsibility for those murders, go to prison for life, that it would just take the death penalty off the table. What do you make of what we've heard so far? Yeah, I understand the family's frustration. In modern times, legislatures have added more protections for victims and their families. But ultimately, that right is usually just to be heard. And to be heard isn't the same as being obeyed.

And the family, unfortunately, is finding this out. Prosecutors will tell you that victims are not their clients. Victims are not parties to a criminal case. They are mostly witnesses. The final decision is up to the prosecutors as to whether to offer a plea, whether to accept a plea, and whether to enter into any plea agreement.

So victims' families are often very disappointed to find that their wishes may not be obeyed. So the right to be heard is a good trend, but it's often pretty hollow when you're the families like this and you really wanted to push for the death penalty. But the state had to make a choice, not necessarily in the interest of the victims, but in justice as a whole and the people

of the state of Idaho as a whole. And one of the victims' family saying, quote, we are beyond furious at the state of Idaho. They have failed us. NBC News, MSNBC Legal Analyst, Danny Savalos. Danny, thanks as always. Coming up, we will show you the daring water rescue of a man and a child who went overboard during a Disney cruise returning from the Bahamas on Sunday, a

father leaping into the ocean to save his daughter. Tell you what happened when Morning Joe comes right back. MUSIC MUSIC Live picture from the top of our building at 648 in the morning on this Tuesday, July 1st. It's July everybody. I want to turn now to the latest out of Coeur d'Alene, Idaho, where a suspect now has been identified in the deadly ambush on firefighters as they responded to a brush fire on Sunday.

Authorities say a 20-year-old named Wes Valroly is suspected of intentionally setting the fire to then ambush firefighters as they arrived on the scene. He killed two of them, wounded a third. Rowley's body was found next to a firearm in the area of that fire. Some members of the suspect's family were stunned by the shooting, saying Rowley had dreams of becoming a firefighter himself. In fact, his grandfather told NBC News, quote, something must have snapped. Maybe he got rejected or something.

Firefighter Dave Tisdale was injured in the attack and is recovering after surgery. The fallen firefighters were identified as Kootenay County Fire and Rescue Chief Frank Harwood and Coeur d'Alene Fire Department Battalion Chief John Morrison. A colleague shared his final memory about Morrison during a press conference yesterday. We talked about being better fathers, we talked about being better leaders, we talked about being better firefighters. I just want to say I am so incredibly grateful that that gets to be my last memory with him. So if there's anything you guys take away from this I want you to know these

were dedicated men. And they were dedicated to this community. John Morrison and Frank Harwood. No manifesto was found. For the shooter, officials have yet to uncover a motive. The suspect had no known criminal history. A father and his five-year-old daughter were rescued after going overboard during a Disney cruise on Sunday with the dad jumping in after his little girl. NBC News correspondent George Solis has details of the daring rescue. This dramatic video shows rescue boats racing towards a man and child desperately treading

water in the middle of the ocean. After passengers say the child fell overboard from the Disney Dream cruise ship, and the man jumped in to save her. You could see all the staff running to the port side. They got their life jackets and rings and everybody was looking in the water. The cruise ship making a U-turn,

according to stunned passengers, who watched from aboard. It was horrific. Applause and cheers erupting when crew members hoisted who watched from aboard. It was horrific. Woo! Applause and cheers erupting when crew members hoisted the pair to safety and brought them back to the ship. Everyone cheered. It was a good moment.

It happened Sunday as the ship was sailing from the Bahamas back to Fort Lauderdale. Passengers say the fall occurred somewhere along the floor four deck, just below the yellow boats you see here. Passengers say they also heard loudspeaker warnings of Mr. Mob, emergency code for man overboard. It's unclear how the child ended up in the water. It was so scary, like, it was like, how did she fall? In a statement to NBC News, Disney Cruise Line confirming

the rescue of two of their guests, saying, we commend our crew members for the exceptional skills and prompt actions, which ensured the safe return of both guests within minutes. The response was just amazing. Amazing. More than 30 million people go on cruises every year. During a 10-year period, 212 people went overboard from cruise ships worldwide. Just 48 were rescued. By law, cruise ships must have rails that are 42 inches or higher.

I'm just glad they're safe. The child and rescuers' conditions are unknown, but those on board calling it nothing short of a miracle. Such a sigh of relief. I mean, it's a parent's biggest nightmare. So glad dad and daughter are okay. An incredible work. They were only in the water for a few minutes because of that Disney Cruise rescue effort.

George Solis reporting for us there. Coming up here, we'll go live back to Capitol Hill for the latest from the Senate's so-called Voterama on the president's sweeping domestic policy bill, now nearing 24 hours of debate on the floor. Will Republicans have the votes in the Senate to pass this massive piece of legislation? Morning Joe's coming right back.