Morning Joe - President Trump defends the deal with Iran amid widespread criticism

Episode Date: June 18, 2026

June 18, 2026 - 6am: President Trump defends the deal with Iran amid widespread criticism Trump is getting some major pushback and criticism for the Iran deal from fellow Republicans and conservatives Steve Ratnner brings his charts to breaks down the economics of the latest Fed Reserve meeting  To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

It's a memorandum of understanding. If it doesn't get done in 60 days, it's all right. We go back to bombing. You know, I don't want to do that because it's so good. But we might have to because we're never going to let them have a nuclear weapon. But they've agreed not to, and you'll see that very clearly in the agreement. What? What?

It's like I'm going to give you a gift and I'll bomb you if you don't take the gift that I'm giving you. Right. President Trump yesterday, repeatedly threatening to bomb Iran if the country violated the memorandum of understanding, which has finally been released. The president is defending the deal amid widespread criticism here at home, with one Republican senator calling it the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. The agreement appears to give Iran everything it wants in exchange for opening up the Strait of Hormuz, which was wide open. before Trump started the war in late February. While Trump tries to spend the terms as a big win, here are the key items. Iran gets its sanctions lifted, gets access to hundreds of billions of dollars in reconstruction funds, and can now sell its oil across the world. Tehran's nuclear

program also stays at its status quo, while negotiations continue for the next six. 60 days. Whatever happened to Iran can never have a nuclear weapons capability. Good morning and welcome to morning, Joe. It is Thursday, June 18th, along with Joe, Willie and me. We have the co-host of our 8am-hour staff writer at the Atlantic, Jonathan Lemire, MS Now Senior National Security Reporter David Road, retired CIA officer and MSNMASN national security and intelligence analyst, Mark Polymeropoulos, and senior writer at the dispatch and a columnist at Bloomberg opinion, David Drucker. Joe, I am aghast. Agast, a gas, gas, gas.

Well, you know, just a couple things. Again, this is, it's very surprising because you usually, slow and steady, gets at Mika. Usually, usually still waters run deep. But not in, not in this case, Mika. This is a first time you're going to be upset at what's, been going on over the past decade. A couple of things, Willie, that bear repeating for the uninitiated, and certainly for some people that are listening to what Donald Trump's saying right now, that, oh, they've agreed not to have a nuclear weapon. This is the same position

they have had for 50 years. This is the Wall Street Journal editorial page. And everybody else will tell you it is the same exact position that they've had for 50 years. Secondly, why would Iran not take this deal? This memorandum of understanding, as David Rode is reporting, and we'll talk to them about in a second and everybody else is reporting, this is a dream. They can't believe they got what they got from Donald Trump. And just a couple of things from the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

Iran will demand even more, the Wall Street Journal editorial page says this morning. And if Mr. Trump is as desperate to end the conflict as he has sounded lately, he's going to give it. He sounds desperate. He sounds like he's going to do anything to end this conflict. The people of Israel feel betrayed this morning. Republicans are horrified. Some will say it out loud.

Some will not. And you could just go down the list of all the things he said. We were going to do at the beginning of this war. and it just hasn't been done. And this MOU takes us in the opposite direction, showering them with maybe half a trillion dollars of money up front. If you add all the things up that the Wall Street Journal was talking about yesterday. And then beyond that, they get to rebuild their economy and act as if they're Luxembourg,

as if they're not the epicenter of international terrorism. because Donald Trump says they can. Yeah, that Wall Street Journal catalogs, that op-ed catalogs, president-by-president from Jimmy Carter Ford, all the attempts by both Democrats and Republicans over the years, to find the moderates in Iran and finally say, we're going to be the administration that engages with Iran. They're going to act like a normal country,

which is the term now that Vice President J.D. Vance is using. He says, if Iran acts like a normal country, this will be a good deal for everyone. history tells us that the mullahs have no interest in Iran being a normal country. They have an agenda that they're pushing around the world. So David wrote, I mean, you look at the particulars of all this. Sanctions lifted, oil flowing out of Iran already. Some of those ships are already moving.

They can get those tens of billions of dollars back. The $300 billion investment fund. We had the president of the United States. We'll dig into this a little bit later saying, well, I've got to let them keep some missiles. It's not fair. Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have. missiles. We got to keep the playing field even, which people's, whether you're a Republican or Democrat, made people's heads explode. But he called in the early days of this war for unconditional

surrender of Iran. He called for regime change. He said they could not have a nuclear weapon. Is any of that achieved in this memorandum of understanding? No, not in any way, shape, or form. It's essentially an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on Iran's terms. Iran will be able, there's some language in there that they basically can't. and charge this toll that they've talked about for so long. This gives them immense power. Trump said if they don't, you know, go along with the negotiations way we want, we're going to start bombing them again. What will they do if we start bombing them? Close the straight of four moves. And the bombing didn't work. And we'll talk about this one. I'll keep it short. But I would

like to speak this morning at some point. President Trump is the person most responsible for this strategic defeat and failure. But I would argue the person's second most responsible who is in the most dangerous position politically is Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. He repeatedly lied to the American public in his press conferences about the progress of the war, and he also refused to give basic information to members of Congress. There's a lot of ill will among senators and House members towards Pete Hegseth, and I just, I have our notes that Jonathan and I covered the press conferences every day, and it's just astonishing. The U.S. was raining death, fire, and fury onto the Iranians. This is not endless. This is not mission creep mocking former presidents and administrations.

The aftermath of this is going to be in our interest. And most importantly, he said Iran is exercising sheer desperation in the Strait of Hormuz. Did he warn the president about the Strait of Hormuz before this war? Was he honest with the American public? And to the 50,000 Americans who risked their lives and the 13 soldiers who died, you know, his performance is just something that has to be looked at it. And interesting, Joe, we haven't seen the Defense Secretary in public much since those podium banging news briefings that he would give every week where he'd lecture the media about how to cover the war, what was actually happening. And from all the reporting that he would show the President of the United States an iPad with things blowing up to show that they were doing well,

it turns out this is a much, much more complicated problem than can be solved by blowing things up. Well, showing him an iPad with things blowing up, putting out memes from Hollywood movies, our cartoons, and that was supposed to substitute as basically communications coming out of the Pentagon or out of the White House about how this war, all of it ended up being a lie. I mean, we have looked back at the lies told by the Pentagon during the Vietnam War with William Westmoreland, and of course, that came over years. But the damage that over the past several months that has put us where we are this morning, where Iran is going to be a behemoth in the region.

With this money, with this MOU, if we do follow through on this MOU, Iran will be more powerful than they've ever been. The Iranians know it and are jubilant about this victory that they've achieved, and they're calling it what it is for them a victory. The Saudis yesterday who were compared to Iran, I'm sure they love that, where Donald Trump says, well, of course Iran needs to have ballistic missiles. I mean, if Saudi Arabia has ballistic missiles, how the hell can I tell Iran they can't have ballistic missiles? Really?

Well, you know, because just about a month or two ago, it was Pete Hagsith telling us that all the ballistic missiles had been destroyed. They're giving some percent, oh, we've killed, 70 percent are gone, 80 percent, we have reduced it to crack. And Donald Trump telling reporters that anybody else who would listen that they don't love America, that they're rooting against the troops, if we admit that the Iranians still have, ballistic missile capability. Now he's admitting it. They're all admitting it. And Jonathan Lemire, Donald Trump has a much bigger problem than with the lefties in the progressive caucus in the House and the Senate. He's got problems with his own Republicans. He's got problems with conservatives. He's got, for good reason, problems with the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

and he's got problems inside his own administration from people who rightly see this as a betrayal. And those who see this as a betrayal have actually read history. And they understand with the Wall Street Journal's strength. And I'm going to say, I don't know. I don't know who taught J.D. Vance at some of the nation's best institutions, right? But they need to get their diplomas back because we, learned from Maggie Haberman and Jonathan Swan that he was pushing for the Insurrection Act before a lawyer inside the White House had to tell the Yale law school graduate, no, we can't do that.

And he's like, oh, okay. And now he's going around talking about Iran like it's a normal country. Well, as if they're Luxembourg. And as Wall Street Journal editorial pages said, again, as Willie said, they take us through every president since 1979 that has tried to find the moderates. always joked throughout the war about trying to find the moderates in Iran and how there are not those moderates in Iran who get to power or else they get killed. And so J.D. Vance keeps talking about the moderates in Iran, and the Wall Street Journal rightly says, every president that has given Iran a good deal thinking that they're going to get the moderates to move forward in Iran, what's happened? Well, what's happening, Iran has used the money

to invest in terrorism, to invest in spreading global terrorism across the region and across the world. And it's happened for 47 years. And now that they see a weak president who is scared to continue this fight in their eyes, they understand. They can get whatever they want. The latest example of this administration, not knowing its history, even a small one, President Trump signed the memorandum of understanding last night at Versailles. I don't know. Treaties signed at Versailles have not tended to work out well over the last 100 years or so. And you're right, there's no one, no one who actually likes this deal.

Even President Trump's efforts to spin it seem for him fairly half-hearted. I should note, he flew back from France last night. He's still up posting on truth social. to trying to defend it. Iran Hawks, deeply disappointed. We have seen an open rebellion on the right administration going after, like Ted Cruz and others. Lindsay Graham, of course, found a way to get there to support Trump, though he is putting a skeptical eye on Vice President Vance, because Vance has become the face of these negotiations in recent days. I mean, you just take through it. None of the war goals were accomplished. Iran comes out of this stronger than before. The

hardliners are empowered. They have more control of the Strait of Hart. are about to get a windfall in order to rebuild their country. And there's certainly no sense that they will stop supporting their proxies in the region who terrorize others. Israel has been checked, it appears, in its ability to respond, which is another real part of this, Joe. And this is, you know, President Trump, this shows desperation that he is now the latest president than Iran has humbled, but he understands that this war was careening

off the tracks, the American economy about to go with it. and he decided to take whatever deal he could, even a bad one, to bring it to a close. And he was warned not to do it. He was warned by multiple people not to do it. He was warned by history not to do it. He was warned by David Ignatius, and I will say the rest of us on this show every day, that Iran was not Venezuela. He moved forward anyway.

And Mark Palomaropoulos, the signing at Versailles, most unfortunate, because as we all grew up learning, and I'm not sure anybody in the administration, has read any history, but if they had, they would understand that many people believe that World War II began because the Germans were forced to pay so much in reparations at the end of World War I. Here's a fun little fact, though. The United States is paying Iran more in war reparations. Under this deal, then Kaiser Wilhelm II paid the Allied powers at Versailles in 19. What we're doing here is an abject surrender. There's no talking your way out of it. That's what it is. And the reparations we are paying Iran through the $300 million that the United States guarantees.

The billion, $300 billion, the $100 billion, the Wall Street Journal writes about it on frozen funds, the $60 billion a year that they can now make every single year off of their oil industry, because we're lifting all sanctions under this MOU. The United States is paying Iran more in war reparations in 2026 than Kaiser Wilhelm the second and a defeated Germany at the end of World War I agreed to pay out at Versailles. That's how bad this. deal is, and there's a reason why Marco Rubio hasn't talked about it over the past several days. So, Joe, I just got back from Europe. I was actually at a conference of historians from the United

States, from Europe, and actually some Iranian academics as well. I think you're entirely right. It's almost as if the administration doesn't read about history whatsoever. I talked to an oil analyst yesterday, and he said, along with all of the things you talked about in terms of Iranian getting this infusion of cash, and that could be over time. time. One of the things that happens almost immediately is an infusion of several billion right off the bat. So they are ecstatic now. As you noted, all of these kind of grandiose, maximalist war aims of the administration are certainly have not been met. I've not been met. The Israelis are kind of an apoplectic meltdown for good reason because all of a sudden,

the key Iranian proxy, Hizbullah, is almost given a free reign to strike Israel. That's something that Israeli defense planners are very nervous about. But I want to say something that that I think is really important. It has been 156 days. I counted since January 13th. And January 13th is when Trump told the Iranian people, quote, help is on its way, when thousands were out in the streets, and then they got massacred. So along with all the reasons on why we have strengthened Iran as a rival in the region, we have betrayed the Iranian people. And that's something that I think is Trump is going to have to live with. Again, 156 days in that statement. And we have done nothing for the Iranian people. In fact, we have strengthened the regime.

That's something that I think for a lot of us, it's pretty hard to stomach. Strengthened and hardened, if possible. And there are a lot of questions. I mean, there's the loss of American lives. There's also the girl school that was blown up. And speaking about the questions about Pete Hagsaf, there's so many questions as to why we were not able to identify that before we decided to attack Iran.

And now, seemingly, for absolutely, nothing, in fact, for losses on our part to have to pay reparations. Let's get congressional reaction after a quick break with David Drucker and also still ahead on Morning Joe. We're going to go live to Chicago ahead of today's star-studied grand opening for the Obama Presidential Center. Plus, how President Trump threw Capitol Hill into confusion yesterday after blocking Jay Clayton's Senate confirmation hearing to be the next director of national intelligence. And as we go to break, a quick look at the travelers' forecast this morning from Acqueweathers, Bernie Raino.

Bernie, how's it looking? Mika, we're tracking thunderstorms today. Severe weather here this morning. Louisville toward Charleston. Spotty thunderstorms, ACWether says Washington, D.C., New York State, toward Boston, cooler, less humid air in Chicago and Indianapolis with a couple of showers. Heavy rain here this morning with flooding from New Orleans toward the Florida Panhandle, drenching showers and thunderstorms late today in Atlanta. and there's going to be some travel delays in Atlanta this afternoon and some minor delays across the northeast. To help you make the best decisions and be more in the know, download the Accuether up today.

The details that I've seen so far look awful. This will go down as a tremendous foreign policy blunder. Iran ends up stronger. Our allies in the region are weaker. And Iran has learned that if they're willing to grab that straight of our moves and choke it off, they can get the Western world to dance to their tune. I think it's a deep mistake. I mean, you know, these are Republicans.

President Trump is getting some major pushback and sharp criticism for the Iran deal, as he calls it, from fellow Republicans and conservatives like Senator Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. He posted on social media stating, quote, Reagan is rolling over in his grave. Iran's nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned. that threatening the Strait of War moves works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now Iran gets to build brand new infrastructure under this deal. He continues before the war the strait was open. Iran was being crushed by sanctions and 13 service members were still alive.

Now, 13 Americans are dead. Families have paid billions at the pump. sanctions will be lifted and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades. Senator Ted Cruz of Texas blasted the plan to send billions to Iran telling the daily wire, quote, what has been released so far suggests that unfortunately the president is getting, I think, very poor advice when it comes to this deal. That money, if it goes to the Ayatollah will go to fund terrorists trying to kill Americans and weapons that will be used to try and kill Americans. And it also appears to formalize a permanent role for the Islamic regime.

Controlling the Strait of Hormuz, it is difficult to see what possible benefit to America could come from that. And David Drucker, I'm curious, is it at all possible? Any of those? voters would believe what we saw, which was the president trying to make it look like he would bomb Iran if they didn't take this incredible, I can't even call it a deal because they're getting everything they want and more. Yeah, I mean, look, we'll have to see how voters process this. I think, you know, what we're seeing from Republicans on the Hill, I think you just had a good couple of bookends there, right? You have one United States senator. who is speaking his mind about President Trump and the deal because he lost the primary after President Trump endorsed his opponent. And then we have Senator Ted Cruz, who you spoke very candidly about the deal, right? But now we're back to the president whose name shall not be named, right?

We're back to Voldemort here. Or this idea that a very strong and decisive leader who will do things nobody else will do was somehow railroaded into this deal because he's getting very poor advice, right? So which is it here? I mean, the guy knows what he's doing and is in charge of his faculties or he's not. And it's indicative of what we're seeing across the broader right and not just on Capitol Hill. We've talked about this before, but, you know, there were so many Republicans in Congress and center-right thinkers who have believed that after nearly 50 years, the action President Trump took going to war against Iran with Israel was a courageous decision, was it the right. right decision and the United States needed to see it through, right? And they were, they were very gratified by the president's policy here. And now they're going through the,

you know, the 35 stages of brief, which is, if this is true, it's going to be really bad. Well, I don't know if it's true because I haven't seen the text. I'm not going to react until I've seen the text. All right, well, I've seen the text. Right. And now that I've, now that I've looked at the text, maybe it's really not so bad because, look, he did say he'll bomb them if they don't follow through. There are others who are just very honest about their disappointment, about their disappointment with both President Trump and the deal. But it's a real mixed bag politically.

I'll just say the president boxed himself in here because this is what happens when you don't make a public case for major military action. The president never asked for the support of the American people, for the support of the Congress, for support from our allies. And so when things inevitably bogged down because we were only willing to do so much militarily, for understandable political reasons, the president didn't have any allies and friends with skin in the game who were there to back up the policy and see it through. And that's part of why he ended up looking for a get out of jail free card here.

And it's why the vice president is selling this and not Secretary Rubio, a la after Venezuela. well. Yeah, I mean, you've got Chady Vance talking like Iran is Luxembourg. It's humiliating for him. To be running around doing that. David Rode, we've all said that Donald Trump made the mistake early on of not telling the American people why we were going to war, not being clear. He finally settled, though, on what? A nuclear program. They can never have a nuclear program. Why did Donald Trump's say yesterday, they've already said, talked about the ballistic missiles. And what he's saying at this front is bad, really, as what's in the MOU. Because as it comes to ballistic missiles, the thing that are allies in that region are the most concerned about right now, Donald Trump said, well, if Saudi Arabia has ballistic missiles, well, my good friends, the Iranians should have ballistic missiles. How can you

say, and he did say this, how can you say that the Saudis can have ballistic missiles when the Iranians can't? Why, that's not fair. And then on nukes, on the issue that he said was the key thing they can't have a nuclear program. I wrote it down here. He said it's hard when their neighbors have nuclear programs, and you're not letting them have a nuclear program for electricity and things like that. This is what the Iranians have been lying about for 47 years. They've been saying for 47 years, oh, no, no, we're not going to build a bomb. We're not going to, they've been saying that for half a century.

Say, this is just for electricity. If the Saudis can have it for electricity, if Israel are going to have, then we should be able to have nuclear power for electricity. Donald Trump is literally, lifting the words from every Ayatollah that has ever run that country while building a nuclear program. So it's one of the reasons why the Israelis are horrified at the betrayal. Our allies in the region are horrified at the betrayal. None of them will say it, but they are.

It's why Republicans on the Hill are horrified by the betrayal. It's why like-minded thinkers with Wall Street Journal editorial are horrified. by the betrayal, not just what he put on the MOU, which is about $500 billion in war reparations against, signed at Versailles, the bitter irony about that, but also what he's saying, saying, well, if America's allies have nuclear programs or have ballistic missiles in the region, then it's just makes common sense to let the Iranians do it too. It's extraordinary. There's the launch of the war, the management of the war, and even the way he's trying to spin this deal, I'm sure, horrified some of his age, what he said yesterday.

The bottom line is that this is Donald Trump himself. I spoke with a former administration official, and in his second term, he has no large national security counsel. He doesn't really listen to any of his aides. It's a tiny circle, and he makes these decisions. He feels he has more foreign policy experience now as a second term president. This MOU shows he does not. This is, I agree with Senator Cancer, this is Senator, excuse me, Cassidy. This is one of the largest American foreign policy blunders in decades, and this is Donald Trump's fault. His arrogance, bluntly speaking, and his complete misreading of the region and what it's like to go to war there. Mark Polly Marappos, take us to Tel Aviv this morning and what Bebe Netanyahu must be thinking,

that he got his man in the White House and Donald Trump, that he went to the situation room, sold the war successfully. He thought that Donald Trump, the United States, United States military would come in and finish off Iran, take out the regime, and now he sits here this morning with this memorandum of understanding anyway with explicit language that says there can be no attacks on Lebanon. Israel has said that doesn't include us. We'll see what Donald Trump has to say to the prime minister. But where does all this leave Israel? So the Israelis I speak with are in a state of panic. One former Mossad official said literally, I can't believe this is happening. But in some ways, they should have known better. And one analyst actually told me, look, you know, Benjamin Netanyahu

decided to ride the tiger. That's Donald Trump. And the tiger just turn around and just bit him on the rear end. And like many of us predicted, he would, because Trump was no dedicated, you know, a savior. He was not the Messiah for Israelis too transactional. And let me just add one quick thing, Willie, let's not forget. At the end of the Biden administration, if you calculate what President Biden did after October 7th, he gave the Israelis $18 billion in military aid, yet somehow he is seen as not a supporter of Israel. That was preposterous. And right now, I think the Israelis are realizing that Trump was not who they thought he was and that this MOU actually puts them in a very precarious national security situation, particularly with terms of ballistic missiles

and what to do about Hezbollah, a terrorist entity sitting on their northern border. Oh, Mark Palomaropoulos, David Rode, David Drucker, thank you all very much for coming on this morning. And still I had a morning, Joe. Kevin Warsh. holds his first meeting as chairman of the Federal Reserve, announcing interest rates will hold steady, at least for now. Steve Ratner is standing by with charts looking at the current state of inflation and the possibility of rate hikes later this year. That's coming up on Morning Joe. Persistently high prices are burden for the American people. But the recent past need not be prologue.

I am pleased to report that members, of the FOMC are unambiguous and unanimous. This committee will deliver price stability. That is Kevin Worse speaking yesterday after leading his first meeting as chairman of the Federal Reserve. The Fed voted unanimously, as he said there, to keep rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive meeting. But with inflation at a three-year high, board members were split on what the central bank might do in the future with half-signalling support for a rate hike later this year. Let's bring in former Treasury official. Morning Joe economic analyst, Steve Ratner, with charts looking at the Federal Reserve's meeting yesterday.

Steve, good morning. Always great to see you with the charts. So Kevin Warsh installed by President Trump as someone he hoped would cut rates. Kevin Warsh did not cut rates. He was not alone. It was a unanimous vote on that board. So let's start first by looking at the state of the economy, which may give us some hints as to where the Fed could go next. Yeah, Willie, that's exactly the point.

The president wanted a Fed chairman who would cut rates. he was lambasted the previous chairman for not cutting rates, and he didn't get what he wanted yesterday, and he made a few comments about that as well. But let's look at why. There are really two reasons. First is inflation, as you saw in that clip. He emphasized the importance of price stability,

or at least very low inflation for American consumers. But of course, that's not what's been happening, particularly since the war. These are three measures of inflation. I'm not going to get into the details of each of them. But this is what consumers see, 4.2%, including those higher gas prices, since the war began, it shot up. This is the measure that the Fed likes to look at, and it's at 3.3%, relative to the Fed's target of 2% down here. So this is why

Kevin Warsh is so emphatic about prices. The other thing that's going on, which is interesting, is we've now had three strong months of job creation, averaging close to 200,000 jobs a month, compared to very flat and even down jobs earlier in the year. So the economy is showing more strength than expected, which doesn't argue for rate cuts, plus the inflation, which argues for rate increases. All right, we have to have, Steve, as you move to your second chart,

President Trump reacting to the news that the rates would not be cut. Let's take a look. You see some bad decision they held rates today. It's all right. Whatever. And it looks like they might even raise them later this year. It's not clear. Do you have any common on it?

It could happen. I mean, it's hard to believe. It just keeps a country down, you know, so, it's so unusual. But we have a very good guy over there now, so I'm guided by what he wants. It's not that unusual. Is it Steve, given the state of the economy, to keep rates where they are? No, that's the weird thing. The president doesn't really seem to grasp some elements of basic economics.

When inflation is too high, you have to raise interest rates to bring it down. That's just simply the way at all. And so here's what people are looking at. The Fed has been holding rates steady for the last few months at 3.6%. At the previous meeting back in March, the members of the FOMC expected rates to come down. Everybody expected rates to come down as they had been. But with the war and the upsurge and inflation, that's not what we're looking at now. The committee thinks rates are going to go up by the end of the year.

Probably can't see all these little dots, but the committee was actually quite divided about it. but nonetheless, rates on average are expected to go up. The market actually is even more pessimistic. It doesn't think the rate increase will be larger, and it doesn't think they're going to be any cuts. The FOMC does believe we'll start to get cuts out in 20, 27, and 28, but much less than what they thought back at the March meeting. So, yeah, that's what we're looking at there.

Now, inflation, the FOMC also believes is still going to stay higher for longer. This is what they believed last December, inflation coming down there. This is what they believed in March, inflation coming down there. This is what they now believe, which is actually not much change at all in inflation in 2027, and then a much more gradual decline. So what are consumers looking at? They're looking at higher prices for longer, and they're looking at higher rates for longer, none of which is making the president happy, and doesn't make any of us happy, but that's

the reality. So, Steve, as you move to your next chart about the Fed that is inherited by the new chairman, Kevin Warsh. Can you speak just a little bit about Kevin Warsh himself? I've talked a lot of people on Wall Street, say he's a pretty conventional economic thinker, worked at Morgan Stanley for a number of years. And by that, I just mean he's not some wild-eyed choice that Donald Trump has chosen in other places across the government. Yeah, that's a great point, Willie. To the president's credit, Kevin Warsh was probably the best qualified of the candidates that he was looking at. But he is, as you say, a very traditional

economist. He was what we call a hawk, meaning that he believed inflation was something that the Fed had to focus on relentlessly and get inflation down. The president wanted what we call a dove, somebody who wants to cut rates. He thought he had it in Kevin Warsh, but not so much. But here's what Kevin Warch is up against. Kevin Warsh is facing not double-digit inflation, but the highest inflation any new Fed chairman has faced going back a long time. This is Alan Greenspan back in 1987. And then you had Janet Yellen and Jay Powell, whose challenge was actually to get inflation up. But this is what Warsh is looking at. And so he's got a tough job. And we're going to see how it unfolds. And he's also got a 12-member committee he's got to make happy. One thing that, as you saw,

Kevin Warsh doesn't want to do, is communicate too much. He believes, and I won't get into the yins and yangs of the debate about this among financial people of how much the Fed should say, but he wants the Fed to say less. These are the statements made by the average. average statement length by Fed chair. And you can see that under Janet Yellen, when all the money up is 604 words, came down a bit under Jay Powell. As I said, they were trying to get prices up.

Kevin Warsh, 132 words. So he's a man of fewer words, which is okay, as long as he achieves his goal of getting inflation down. Might not be the worst thing these days. Fewer words. We'll see where they go next. Morning Joe, Economic analyst, Steve Ratner.

Steve, thanks so much, as always. We appreciate it. So Jonathan Lemire, we heard a little bit of frustration from President Trump there on the tarmac yesterday. He thought he had a guy in Kevin Warsh who might do his bidding and cut the rates. But Kevin Warsh, as was just laid out by Steve, is a traditional economic thinker. We've got to bring inflation down. That means for now leading them flat and then signaling maybe they're going to go up before they ever come down. I'll follow Kevin Warsh's lead and keep this brief.

Trump won't like that. The, yes, this is, I think he'll get a little bit of space here. you know, Trump really, a lot of political capital to push Warsh in. We know the investigations that went into Jerome Powell trying to force him out. He's got his guy. He's going to be patient for a couple months, maybe. But I certainly wouldn't expect beyond that. And people I talked to yesterday after that moment said, echoed, within the administration,

echoed that, yes, Trump eventually, soon and later, pre midterms is going to want to see those rates come down. We'll see if Warsh is going to have independence required to say no if he thinks that's the right decision. And again, the signal is they're going to go up, not down next time. We'll see. Still ahead here, Ken Paxton, the Republican Senate nominee in Texas may have jumped the gun on a big event his party is planning. We'll explain next on morning, Joe. All right. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning.

The Supreme Court is entering the final few days of its term with major landmark decisions potentially coming as soon as today. The justices are expected to hand down 20 remaining decisions. on issues ranging from Trump's presidential power, birthright citizenship, and other curbs on immigration, the rights of transgender athletes, and more. The court does not announce in advance which decisions are coming

and often drops blockbuster decisions in the final days before its summer recess. Willie. New research suggests California's San Andreas' fault has reached its highest stress level in the last 1,000 years. years. The study shows the same conditions for the nearby San Jacinto fault. Geologists say that building pressure has primed the state for a large earthquake scientists have referred to as the big one.

And Republicans are reportedly discussing plants to hold a rare midterm convention in Texas later this year, according to the Texas Tribune at a Teletown Hall event on Monday, the state's attorney general, and Republican Senate candidate, Ken Paxton, said the GOP will host a convention. In Dallas, this September, the Republican National Convention, which is not officially announced any event, declined to address Paxton's comments, but a source told the Tribune that an announcement would come from President Trump on truth social, Willie. And there are new developments this morning surrounding the president's pick to become the next director of national intelligence.

Clayton was scheduled to appear at a Senate confirmation hearing yesterday, but then President Trump instructed him not to attend. That's because the president is angry at Republicans for working with Democrats on a bipartisan push to extend a key government spying law known as FISA. The president also furious at Republicans for balking at his effort to fundamentally change how Americans register to vote. That means Bill Pulte, a close ally of the president, with no intelligence or national security experience, appears set to take over as the acting director of national intelligence despite objections from both sides of the aisle.

So Jonathan Lemire, we talked a little bit about this yesterday, but it looks like in the short term and maybe a little bit longer, it will be Bill Pulte, controlling and coordinating all of the nation's intelligence. And Pulte has no experience. And let's remind viewers that by law, this post, D&I, you're supposed to have extensive intelligence community experience. He has zero. So that's a concern.

Paulty also in his other job at the federal housing agency has carried out President Trump's campaign of retribution investigating whether it was Letitia James, New York Attorney General, Lisa Cook at the Fed. Others suggest, you know, trying to suggest that they had lied in their mortgage applications and they could face criminal penalties. And we're seeing another moment here. And these are growing where some real rifts between Trump and Republicans in the Senate. Tom Cotton, chair of that committee put out on a statement yesterday. He was pretty blunt saying he was really disappointed that the president did this, saying that he believes Clayton is the best pick for this, that, you know, he would get swift confirmation. And frankly, most Democrats agree that Clayton is at least qualified.

And that instead, though, Trump is trying to create some sort of three-dimensional chess move to get through the Save Act, which is simply not going to happen. This is the Republicans have said, on this, on the hill, you don't have the votes. Leader Thune has said, we're not going to blow up the filibuster for doing this. They see this as a major self-owned and are going to hurt them politically, but Trump simply won't abandon it. It feels to me that this is a, he's trying to vent his frustration. Nothing's going right. So he's taking out his frustration here. Republicans saying, take the win. We'll give you, Jay Clayton, take the win, and he won't here. Coming up, one of our next guests is launching a new effort to safeguard against election

interference, specifically by the federal government. Democratic Congressman Dan Goldman Goldman joins us straight ahead with more on that. And given the shoes and ties he's wearing today, there might be some Nick's talk as well. The parade in just hours. Morning Joe, coming right back. You know,