Morning Joe - Senate agrees to end shutdown for most of DHS

Episode Date: March 27, 2026

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They're not fools. They're very smart, actually, in a certain way. And they're great negotiators. I say they're lousy fighters, but they're great negotiators. And they are begging to work out a deal. I don't know if we'll be able to do that. I don't know if we're willing to do that. They should have done that four weeks ago. They should have done it two years ago. Yeah. You know, I know the feeling. You know, like they're begging the president. president to just do a deal with him. I mean, you and I both, Margo Robbie, she's always begging us. We're like, hey, please, please, just take me to a movie. Take me to a, we're like, we're married, we can't do. And, but they just keep going. And I think that's because really, a lot of people don't know this. But I am going to be signing from this point forward, all MS Now currency. And you, this exciting, I, should I tell? I'm going to tell them. Willie Geist, I can't tell you the exact date, but sometime in the next two weeks is going to be receiving the MS Now Peace Prize.

He has ended, I think, 14 wars, 13 or 14 wars. He will be receiving the MS now Peace Prize. And Best Sharpie in the world are going to be delivering him the trophy, which is six feet. It's a beautiful, the tallest, most powerful trophy ever, and the Sharpie, which I'll tell you the story about that later. And Willie, I know you're humbled. I know your family's going to be very proud of you ending, is it four, I think 14 wars, 13, 14 wars. Just since we came on the show this morning, which is, it's just who he is. It's what he does.

He doesn't apologize for it. He loves peace. He is blessed. He is a peacemaker. So we have all of that, Willie. Plus, you know, my grandma from Dalton, Georgia, she should always talk about when people said, well, maybe, you know, maybe we need more. We're struggling a lot, right?

She'd always say, Joey, we got gracious plenty. We got gracious plenty. And that's what we were served up in heaping helpings last night regarding TSA benefits. Gracious plenty. First, after doing. nothing for five weeks. You have Republicans from both sides of Pennsylvania Avenue screaming, I got it. I got it after, again, five weeks of doing nothing. But this morning, we have gracious, plenty. So let's be thankful for that as well as, and I don't know where it's going to be.

We get a few where it's going to be, but your MS Now Peace Prize ceremony. I think it's going to be one of the highlights, actually, of our two 150th anniversary as a nation. I'm humbled and honored. It's the first trophy I've won since in 1986. We won the Ridgwin Little League town title with Renato's Pizza. So this is a nice follow-up to that. Yeah, I think, Joe, the Sharpie story we just heard from the president. We'll hear again later in the show.

That was a new one. A Sir story from the president of Sharpie, who made its own custom pens to sign the deals. and maybe he was going to use it to sign the executive order he announced yesterday to pay TSA. Boy, if I'd known we could have used an executive order, shouldn't we have done that five weeks ago, perhaps? But now it appears in its haste to get out of town for Easter, Republicans felt the pressure and are hopefully now it looks like going to get that legislation through. And not a moment too soon as people head out for spring break today and prepare for the Easter holiday. So it was ugly out there for weeks and weeks and weeks.

and now spring break finally put the last screw it appears to Congress. They want to get out of town, so they're going to hopefully now pay our TSA agents and fund DHS. Yeah, let's certainly hope so. With us as morning we have the co-hosts of our 9 a.m. hour staff right of the Atlantic, Jonathan Lemire, is excited as I am about how the Red Sox began, an MS now senior Capitol Hill reporter and host of way too early. She doesn't know it yet, but I think she too now is a Red Sox fan, Ali Vitale. sat right out. And MSNOW National Affairs analyst John Heilman. He's a partner and chief political columnist at the Pock. He, of course, supports the Death Star. He is a Dodgers fan.

So, Willie, we had the breaking news overnight that we were talking about. We can get to baseball later, but the Senate lawmakers have passed a bill, and they're going to fund most of the Department of Homeland Security. Tell us all about it. Yeah, so the move, as I said, finally could bring an end to the weeks-long shutdown that's caused those hours-long lines for you at airports across the country. The measure was passed through unanimous consent. It would fund the department except for ICE and Border Patrol. That's something Democrats have been offering for weeks, and now it heads to the House for consideration. This comes just hours after President Trump said he would sign an emergency order to ensure TSA agents get paid. He made that announcement

on social media, blaming what he called a true national crisis on Democrats, adding that he would order Homeland Security Secretary Mark Wayne Mullen to immediately pay agents. The administration didn't provide any further details. So, Ali Vitale, let's go to your congressional beat here and how this all played out yesterday. Clearly, Republicans felt the pressure from the scenes they were watching on television, the phone calls they were getting from constituents, the desire to get out of town, as I said, for the two week recess. How did this all play out yesterday, starting with the president's announcement on social media, and then in the early hours of this morning, hopefully now a measure to get TSA agents

paid? A cascading effect, frankly, Willie, because you saw the president there making a concession saying, okay, we'll pay TSA agents, which effectively takes the pain leverage off the table from a political sense, but does the moral thing of giving these people a semblance of when their next paycheck is going to come, because this would have been today another missed payday. So we'll watch that. It also gives Democrats a new political cudgel in that they can now say what you asked, which is if this was an option all along, and it's also not clear that it was from the perspective of we don't know that the president can just sign an executive order and say, okay, pay these people. But if that is something that he can do, Democrats are now asking,

why didn't you just do this 41 days ago and save these TSA workers the pain of not knowing when their next paycheck would come? And then there's the way that the Senate actually went about and did this, because we've seen this deal come together and fall apart a dozen times over the course of the last month plus. And yet last night, it was a mix of the dynamics that you mentioned, jet fumes and Senate magic, helping them get this over the finish line. They did it through something called unanimous consent. All 100 senators basically saying, all right, you agree to pass this and to bypass all of the procedural motions that we would need to actually take it to a floor vote. Okay, we've now passed it and we are on our way out the door for a two-week recess. It leaves a lot of questions, though, first and most immediately, when does the House take this up?

It's not clear what they're going to do. Maybe it's later this morning. They've got votes at 10 a.m. You look at the dynamics there. I don't imagine that most Democrats are on board for passing it, but they might not all need to be. And then there's an open question for two weeks from now when Congress comes back. What happens to the parts of DHS, specifically ICE and border protections that aren't funded in this? And are there guardrails that will still be placed on ice? Remember, that's what started all of this. And Democrats are now coming away. Yes, getting the deal that they've been proposing for weeks saying fund everything except

for these immigration enforcement entities. But I think it also says the quiet part out loud, Republicans going along with this because ICE always had its funding through the mechanism that they passed last summer, the reconciliation, so-called one big beautiful bill. ICE always had its funding from that. And so now the open question is, does it reopen? What does it look like when it reopens? and are there any guardrails placed on this institution that even Republicans acknowledge has gotten way out over what it should actually be doing?

Of course, evidenced by the fact that two Americans were killed earlier this year on the ground in Minnesota. Yeah, you know, John Heilman, all of those questions will be handled when they come back, when Congress comes back. the thing that seemed to me that I just couldn't imagine was them leaving for their spring break while people are going on spring break, while people are trying to get home for religious holidays. We talked about yesterday Easter, trying to get everybody together for Easter or Passover or whatever religious gatherings there are coming up. And it just seemed that there's just no way Republicans could leave Washington, D.C., saying no for like the 10th, 11th, 12th time for TSA funding. And you just look at it and let's just talk about really quickly. I'll just throw it to you really quickly. Just the chaos that seemed to be out there.

I talked about how I was standing the line at LaGuardia for an hour and a half. And somebody said, wait a second, you want to run Iran and you can't even run your effing airports? She can't run LaGuardia. And a lot of anger there, and it was rising up because Republicans owned Washington. But, man, you have Iran. You have high gas prices. You have the polls just plummeting for Republicans. And then you had this chaos, which I will say it now, that we're beyond it.

A lot of cops, a lot of police commissioners, a lot of security people, you know, we're constantly saying, Joe, this is an extraordinary. a really frightening possibility for terrorism, where people are milling around on the wrong side of the security screenings. And Republicans were just sitting there letting it happen. I'm, I'm, count me, thankful that it looks like this is going to finally be resolved. But man, what damage was done to the Republican Party while they let this fester for five weeks while an unpopular war was going on and gas prices are spiking. Yeah, Joe, I was concerned about your situation yesterday.

I'm hoping you made it wherever you needed to make it without too much, you know, having to hitchhike or, you know, take the trailways bus or whatever, because obviously the chaos is not yet lifted. We don't even know, as we said, you know, it looks like you're like you managed to get wherever you were going. I mean, the airports have been a nightmare. Yeah, good. That's all it matters.

Safe and sound. The airport's a bit a nightmare, and I think that in the end, right, we have seen so many funding crises and so many partial government shutdowns, temporary government shutdowns, full government shutdowns, an unprecedented number of them over the course of the last five or six years. I think that all that gets left here politically when this is all passed, right, is that this is going to be a thing that people broadly associate with Republicans because Republicans run the Congress and they run the White House.

They're going to remember this period, probably dimly, that there was this kind of this chaotic period in the airports when other stuff seemed to be spiraling out of control. That is the narrative, I think, that is based in reality that where the Trump presidency and Republican control of Congress have gotten to, and most people's mind, the headline here is, things are out of control, Republicans own that things are out of control,

Democrats are trying for a period of time to get at least this aspect of life back under control. Will they get a ton of credit? Will this thing be the determinative factor in the midterms? No. But it's nothing about this. It does anything to counteract the overwhelming political headwinds that Republicans are facing now. And the broader picture of dysfunction and disarray, both at home and abroad. So I think, you know, Republicans, you're right.

they did as they often do wait until the last possible moment when it became unimaginable to continue with something. They finally decided that they absolutely had to figure out some way to get things back on track in this one area. But I think the broader picture of political damage has not been altered by this sudden save. And we've got some new Fox News polling this morning we'll get to in a moment that underlines John's point about the whole that Republicans find themselves in politically right now. Jonathan Lemire, just to watch yesterday play out yesterday morning, obviously on this program, we and many others were outraged by what we were seeing because it was such an unnecessary crisis created by politicians in Washington. Donald Trump consumes media. He listens to phone

calls. He watches TV. He sees those lines. And so he stepped in suddenly with this emergency order. Again, something if he was concerned about this, he could have done many weeks ago, and set this in motion? Did the White House begin to hear the noise and feel the pressure of quieting the criticism that comes with these lines and to get people moving again? Yeah, they did. And the lines are such a tangible thing. We could all see and we could experience them. And they were just simply, they were horrendous and they were inexcusable. And certainly the narrative changed in the last couple of days, including on this show, about how they also were a security risk. What a soft target they would have been, where someone could have walked into an airport, not go through any sort of security screening,

and suddenly find thousands of Americans standing there. You know, at a time of war, that's a dangerous proposition. So that's part of it. You're absolutely right. The media coverage is very negative. The president, very attuned to that. And, you know, this is, I do think, to Hileman's point, a lot of these government shuts down, they don't matter. They come and they go, right? Like, in the moment, they feel like a big deal. And certainly for the workers who aren't getting their paycheck, they are a big deal. But a few weeks later, everyone sort of moved on. This one, because of those lines in the airport,

I think it might have a little more stickiness, a little more staying power, just impartially because it adds to this sort of general picture that in particular the Republicans in Washington are out of touch about what matters. To Joe's point about that foul-mouth commuter he ran into it, LaGuardia, like, they're more consumed,

the president's more concerned about what's going on overseas rather than in his backyard. And, by the way, what he's doing overseas, this warning, Ron, is simply making things more expensive here at home. So this was something that was bad for Republicans. We know the Senate for days now has wanted to get a deal. And then finally, the president steps in.

It looks like late night we have something working on the other side of Pennsylvania Avenue as well. But I think this is just adds to a really negative political picture for the GOP. I was just going to say, Willie, you look at the fact that a Reuters poll was out this week that shows the president's approval rating on the economies at 29. percent overall around 36 percent of Fox News poll slightly higher on his overall approval rating, but all the other numbers on the economy as low as they've ever been. And then you look at the war and we have a pollster coming on later talking about this is the least popular war at the onset that we've ever fought as a nation, certainly since polling has begun.

that's a Fox News poll, the economy down 34%. He's upside down 32 points. You can go through any poll. I know the president will say fake poll, this, fake poll, that. Well, there are all the polls now. And then finally, really, on top of that, with low approval ratings, with the most unpopular war at its onset that we've had in our lifetime, and then with air travel, just completely wrecked.

destroyed for four, five weeks. Again, something that you could see on your screens, those three things add up and make a much, a terrible situation for Republicans, much, much worse. And so I think Republicans on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue finally understood, they need to move on this. This is something John Thun wanted to do in the beginning of the week. But I think everybody got there by the end. Yeah. And I mean, those numbers. that you laid out paint a terrible picture, not just for the president, but for Republicans who grow with each passing day more and more concerned, not just about the House, but you hear whispers

privately about the Senate coming this fall. When you have 75% of Americans saying the economy is in bad shape in that Fox News poll, 64% saying we're headed in the wrong direction, a complete cratering of support among independents, obviously vital to swing some of these races for President Trump. it adds up to an ugly picture. And we'll talk about the economic impact, further economic impact on the markets of the war in Iran. But Ali Vitale, I guess one of the questions we've been asking quite a bit lately is at what point, because of what many Republicans, as you know very well,

see coming in the fall, trying to avert or at least trying to mitigate some of the losses that they think are coming in the fall, at what point do they begin to defy the president? I'm thinking, for example, of John Thune saying, no, we're not getting rid of the filibuster to pass the Save America Act. We've got to get people working again. What pressure are they feeling from the outside to defy the president in a way, frankly, they never have? I do think that's been the persistent question, right? Many of them have benefited from the president's coattails in the instances where he's been at the top of the ticket. That's definitely true. That's why he has such political power within the party. And yet,

the private concerns remain persist. And my, My biggest question is at what point A, do those concerns become public? We're already starting to see a bit of that on Iran. But B, at what point Republicans realize that their political fortunes in this instance for November are actually not tied directly to the presidents? He is not on the ballot. He is making their political fortunes more difficult and only increasing the headwinds that they already face.

History tells us it was going to be a tough midterm for Republicans. Trump is only making that harder. There is that realization among Republicans on Capitol Hill and in campaign. apparatus is, they are just not at a point where they can say it publicly. And I wonder when or if that point ever actually comes. You know, and the thing is really, the problem for Republicans also is with Donald Trump, it's like can't live with him, can't live without him. You look and see Republicans when, as Ali said, when Donald Trump is at the top of the polls. And when Donald Trump is at the top of the ballot, people come out and vote for Republicans that never vote for

Republicans. When he's not on the ballot, Republicans lose. So here they are in the situation, upside down in a historical way, and they're not going to even have Donald Trump on the ballot or his operation to pull people out to give him a fighting chance to win. And perhaps, perhaps, that's why you see President Trump with what he calls the Save America Act trying to restrict the number of people who come out to vote this fall. Ali Vitale, thank you as always. Still ahead this morning on Morning Joe, we'll turn to the latest with the war in Iran. As President Trump extends now the deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, plus new reporting on the growing divide within the White House over the war,

what senior aides are saying about internal messaging and shifting focus. And as we had to break a quick look at the travelers' forecasts this morning from Accuweather's Bernie Rayno. Bernie, how's it looking out there? Willie Calderer on the move in the Northeast today. A leftover shower this morning. city, then clouds will break for some sunshine. Your exclusive actuar weather forecast, though,

shows rain from Philadelphia to Washington, D.C., as we go through at least the morning hours. Hot in the Carolina, a couple of gusty thunderstorms from Nashville toward Virginia Beach. Cooler in Dallas today with a shower, too. Your acuether travel forecast, some lingering delays in LaGuardia and some minor delays in Philadelphia this morning. To help you make the best decisions

and be more in the know, download the acuether app today. Beautiful live picture, the United States Capitol 625 on this Friday morning. President Trump again is extending his deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face what he calls an obliteration of its power plants. The pledge to pause energy strikes was set to expire tonight, but the president posted on social media yesterday he would hold off for 10 more days. He cited ongoing talks that he claims are going very well, despite Iran continuing to insist

publicly it is not negotiating. That announcement from the president coming minutes after the markets closed, with U.S. stocks having recorded their biggest losses since the war began. Despite the pause on power plant strikes, fighting continues across the region. The Israeli military said early today, it conducted a wave of strikes in the heart of Tehran, with residents describing intense bombardment. Iran also hitting back across the Gulf this morning with missile alert sirens sounding in Bahrain and Qatar and Kuwait saying its main port was damaged in an attack. During a cabinet meeting yesterday, President Trump gave his assessment of where negotiations stand while revealing what he called the present, he says he received from Iran,

that it was the passage of several ships through the Strait of Hormuz. They now have a chance to make a deal, but that's up to them. And they'll tell you, we're not negotiated. We will not negotiate. Of course, they're negotiator. that they're obliterated. Who would negotiate? They are begging to make a deal.

We'll see if we can make the right deal. If they make the right deal, then the straight will open up, harmless straight will open up. I read a story today that I'm desperate to make a deal. I'm not, I don't, if I was desperate, he'd be the first to know. Let's get that out of there.

I'm the opposite of desperate. I don't care. In fact, we have other targets. want to hit before we leave. They said to show you the fact that we're real and solid and we're there.

We're going to let you have eight boats of oil, eight boats, eight big boats of oil, and they were real, and I think they were Pakistani flagged. And I said, well, I guess we're dealing with the right people. And actually,

they then apologized for something they said, and they said, we're going to send two more boats. and ended up being 10 bouts. I hope I haven't screwed up your negotiations, but I thought it was appropriate to say because I did taunt you the other day by saying they're going to give us a present. Let's bring in a former spokesperson

for the U.S. mission to the United Nations, Hagar Shemali, and MSN.S. Now White House reporter, Jake Trailer. Jake has new reporting on an apparent divide within the White House over the war in Iran. Good morning to you both. Jake, I'll start with you on that reporting for viewers at home

and the American public who may be confused about messaging about this war, its aims when it's going to end. They're not alone because it appears some of the White House aides surrounding President Trump also are confused. Tell us about your reporting. Yeah, Willie, good morning. That's right. Look, some really illuminating reporting here, just about the growing tension that exists within the White House on the messaging on the war with Iran. That's from the president himself and also the White House communications team. I spoke with three different White House officials about this, two of which you are. actively still employed at the White House.

One of them told me that the president's messaging around Iran over the past couple of weeks, but increasingly so, has been hyperbolic. They continue to say that the president has essentially grown bored with the war in Iran and is looking to round things up and has already shifted his energy to more domestic issues. Another official was telling me that typically a strategy of the presidents that he's employed over the years is essentially lying to the American people, but knowing that eventually they will get on board with some of the things that he's saying is he kind of slowly ingest that into their system. But this time around in a warlike setting, that's not necessarily the case.

It's not hitting the same way it has previously. There's also this second component in frustration amongst folks inside the White House walls about the social media strategy taking place about the war in Iran right now. We've seen over the past couple of weeks White House social media accounts posting a lot of these meme-like posts, essentially, meming movies, rap songs, and showing in compilation these attacks that are killing. Of course, Americans have died as well as folks in the Middle East, making very light of the subject. One individual told me that he was upset to be working at the White House right now at a time like this, said the videos were cringe, disrespectful, and gross. A through line here, though, for all of these White House officials that I spoke with here,

is that they say that they're not going to voice their opinion inside White House walls because there is real fear, especially in a second Trump administration, that voicing their opinion of disagreance in this moment would mean losing their jobs. Yeah. You know, Hagar, you look at how the president's run this war from the very beginning. He didn't notify Europe. He didn't notify Congress. he's always in these matters.

He holds the strategy close to his vest. He doesn't trust Congress. He doesn't trust allies. He doesn't trust the press. And was able to launch a successful first strike on the leadership of Iran. And it seems to me, and I'm sure you agree, it's just the way he does things in war, not traditional and deeply concerning, obviously, the members of Congress and allies. But as we move forward, he's got our Gulf region allies pulling at him.

He's got Israel pulling at him. He's got other people pulling at him saying, stay in the fight. The Wall Street Journal editorial page said, you've started this thing, end it. But on the other side, as we've said here from the very beginning, our reporting has shown. he expected this to be a two, three, four week war. It just doesn't seem politically possible for this war to drag on into the summer months. But where does that leave the region? Where does that leave the president?

Where does that leave the issue on the straits? Well, you know, Joe, you hit a really important point about his pattern in approaching the communications around this war, but also any other kind of foreign or military operation. And he has this pattern of deliberately keeping people confused. He does not care about communicating to the U.S. public, although I would argue that's a disservice actually in his efforts. But his even by the way, this window of negotiations, and the negotiations are happening and we know that,

but he has this rosy view that he portrays. And that might not at all be true. In fact, he might not at all be interested in a deal. We will never know on our end. it's part of a game he plays. And the reason for that is that when, and this is in his book, by the way, in the art of a deal, when you appear willing to walk away, when you are confusing in your communications, you retain all the power. And that's very important to him, whether he's pursuing any foreign policy objective, but particularly in a war like this one. Now, for your point

about what this means for when it ends, I still believe he is very interested in not having this go very long. I do agree, even for those who might be against this war, that once, you started it, we have to be very clear about what the other side could look like. There is no scenario I see where if the vestiges of this regime exist, that you're going have anything other than a harsh crackdown and power vacuum and something much more dangerous, certainly for the Gulf. That's why Saudi Arabia is literally begging the White House not to stop and to continue going. So we might have something somewhere in the middle.

But I think it'll go on for a little longer and it would be a mistake to end it too soon. But he's not going to be able to go too much longer, like you said, into the summer months. Yeah, I mean, President Trump is actively looking for an off-ramp. Like, this war has not gone as planned. He would like to end it sooner than later. But he can't just yet. He is, as AIDS acknowledges, he's in a bit of a bind right now. Because, as Hagar just explained, walking away now leaves behind an embittered regime that will never trust the U.S. again, has more motivation to lash out against neighbors and the West. Also, the straight and Hormuz remains effectively shut right now. And there's, there is a lot of pressure right now.

There's also real apprehension, as I wrote last night, that NATO is fearing the worst from Trump in terms of his retribution because they won't help with the Strait of Hormuz. They're very concerned that even if Trump doesn't actually try to blow up NATO and pull out, which he has threatened in the past, in which the Greenland crisis almost gave us just six weeks or so ago, at the very least he could move troops out of Europe as retaliation, shift them elsewhere, leaving Europe far more vulnerable to advances from Russia and other enemies. And John Haman, the president, yeah, he wanted the quick victory. He wanted to put another scalp on the wall. Like, you know, he wanted to have another win like Maduro. He's not gotten that. And now he's playing this game.

There was very little surprise yesterday. He extended the deadline again. He doesn't want to do this. He, in terms of that obliteration that he keeps threatening. And I think he was really spooked when Iran hit the Qatari-LNG plant because that showed him. They have a big say over energy markets now and potentially for years to come. He's looking for an off-ramp, but at the same time, keep sending ground troops to the region, at least as a negotiating tactic, threatening he may go in with boots on the ground, which of course would be a real escalation, potentially very bloody for Americans. Well, right, Jonathan. And you mentioned that Katari LNG field, the facility there, which actually just is worth dwelling on for two seconds

just because it highlights the notion of how the long-term challenge that this war has imposed in terms of the economic cost of it. That single LNG facility in Qatar is now said to be. It is the largest liquid natural gas facility in the world. It provides a rather shockingly large percentage of the total liquid liquid-lified national gas in the world. And 20% of its capacity is now offline for the next five years. So you could solve this war tomorrow and the economic effects on prices, not just gas prices, but diesel prices, fertilizer costs, even things like like generic drugs are going to be elevated because of what we've already seen in the war. And to your point a second ago, Donald Trump may want an off-ram.

But as we know, and Joe, I listened to the show yesterday. You guys had a very long discussion of this. The enemy has a say in this, right? And it takes me back to that question, which is we always analyze this entire issue. and the president's political and military and strategic objectives through the lens of the presidency, which makes a lot of sense. But we don't often or as often as I think would be useful analyze this through the point of view of the Iranians.

And although the president yesterday said, well, they're desperate to make a deal, there's not a lot that indicates desperation on the part of the Iranians. In fact, from their standpoint, in terms of the strategy that they've employed, they seem to be not exactly winning this war, but certainly not losing it. I don't really fully understand, if you look at it from the Iranian point of view, what it is that creates the kind of incentives that Donald Trump is facing, what it is that creates those kind of incentives. Of course, they want the bombing to stop.

But this is an existential fight from them, and the way that they're fighting it is succeeding on the terms that they've set. And so the question is, how do we get kind of an alignment in terms of interest here? I don't see it as clearly as apparently President Trump does in terms of the Iranians begging to make a deal. Yeah, and the reason why, obviously, is just the imbalance and what's motivating both sides and where the pressure is applied for the Iranians, if they lose this war, if this regime is pushed out, Willie, most of these leaders probably think that they will be killed.

Most of these leaders look what happened to Gaddafi. Most of these leaders look at what happened to Saddam Hussein. So this is an existential fight not only for the radical revolution they started in 1979, but also a fight for their very lives, for their family's lives, for everything that they know. On the other side, the leverage comes in the S&P Index Fund. And so there is a radical imbalance there. And you have, remember Pam Bondi saying the Dow's over 50,000, let's not talk about the Epstein files. Well, now it's moving towards 45,000.

The S&P has had one of its worst months and years. Oil went up overnight. And again, we will see if the president can withstand the pain of markets going down and oil going up, then he can hold out and negotiate a tough deal. But again, part of the problem here is just built in. Iran, as we said from the start, it's not Venezuela. And Iran has the ability to inflict serious pain on our markets unless the regime is changed. And right now, that's looking much more difficult than not only

analyst in the White House thought at the start of this war, but also a lot of people in Washington, D.C. Yeah, and as many of the experts we've had on the show have said, you can't kill your way through this regime. You kill one, and the next one comes along from the IRGC. To your point about the markets this morning, Joe, Brent crude, the international oil number, crossed $110 a barrel down to like $109. Right now, that's a huge number. And if you listen to what some analysts are saying this morning, they're not any, longer buying this thing where President Trump gives an extension to allay the markets, to say,

okay, we're going to give them five more days, we're giving them 10 more days. They don't like where this is headed and they don't like the way politics are playing into it. So oil at $110 a barrel is disastrous for the economy and for what consumers here in America pay at the pump. MSNOW White House reporter, Jake Trailer, thanks so much for bringing us your reporting. This morning, it's available to read online now. And former spokesperson for the U.S. mission to the United Nations, Hagar Shemali. Thank you, as always. Coming up next, President Trump

defends his mail-in vote in Florida's special election this week, despite pushing for new voting restrictions ahead of the midterms and calling mail-in voting, mail-in cheating. I'll show you what he said next on Morning Joe. Nothing from nothing leaves nothing. You got to have something if you want to be a... Some more now on those Fox News polls we were discussing earlier when it comes to President Trump's job performance,

Overall, 41% of people responding approved while 59% disapproved. On the economy, he is 32 points underwater. And on inflation, that number spikes to a 43 point net negative. Only 28% approve of how he's handling inflation. Let's bring in senior writer at the dispatch columnist at Bloomberg opinion, David Drucker. David, good morning. It's good to see you. So there's a lot to fold into.

Those are some of the economic numbers. But when you look at the wrong track number in the Fox News poll, 65% say we're in the wrong track. 75% say the economy is in bad shape. There's the economy. There's the war in Iran. There's people standing in long TSA lines. Hopefully that's getting resolved here this morning.

What does it all add up to for Republicans? Yeah, well, it doesn't add up to anything good for them right now. And I think we're, you know, we're getting to a point where we've long talked about the House of Representatives being in trouble for Republicans. It's such a thin majority. You don't even need a way of election for control of the House to change. and it's almost assuredly going to. But we've now reached a point with a lot of these poll numbers consistently over time and getting worse, where the Senate is now considered in play.

And you can't just assume, despite the fact that the Republicans have a very favorable map, blue states versus red states, that they're going to remain in control of the Senate in November. And that's just, you know, what happens in a midterm election when your party controls the White House, and voters don't like the way the president is doing his job. Yeah, and you know, David, it happens, as, as you and I have said, and the president himself has said, it usually happens in midterm elections anyway. You add these numbers, and you had really sort of a whole, sort of a consistent hangover from, and a holdover from the Biden administration, where you had prices going up.

The president said he was going to bring him down. The prices continue to go up, maybe 2, 3%, but that's on top of a lot of things since 21. Then you have voters who are very angry, and they're angry because things cost a lot less than 2019. I'm wondering what you're hearing from Republicans regarding the issue we've been talking about this morning thus for, and that is, how long is the president able to hold out? How long is the president able to tell the Iranians, no, we don't. care how high oil goes. We don't care how low the S&P 500 goes. We're going to stay in this fight until you meet us on our terms. That question asked through the eyes of Republican leaders in the House and the Senate, what are you hearing that answer to be? How patient will they be?

Well, when they've been patient, we were beginning to see a little grumbling with Republicans on the Hill wanting more information about the war, its aims, how it's being conducted, just information, right? They're not, they're not splitting with the president. But I think, you know, what we have seen so far over the past couple of weeks, particularly because we're in primary season, is they're not going to be at least too publicly dismissive or upset with the administration, right? I mean, what is Congress, you know, working on? What is the Senate working on right now? They're working on, you know, this Save America Act, which is all about imposing some national voting standards on the states. And where do voters

want the administration and want members of Congress focus? They want them focused on the economy, particularly on costs and the cost of living. And so they're not even making the voters' priorities their primary focus. And they're not even making the war in Iran their primary focus, right? We're in the middle of a war. What are they making their primary focus? This other issue. Now, in a vacuum, you could say, hey, maybe this is, you know, something that Congress, you know, should tackle. There's some support out there for this to be addressed. But politics isn't about doing what you want on your timeline. It's about doing what the voters want on their timeline.

And I just think that shows you how much deference the president retains with Republicans despite an atmosphere that is very, very troubling for them. Yeah, and to David's point, I mean, the president and Republicans, Republicans are focused on the Safe America Act, but they're also, it's a very dishonest framing of what's in there. It's not just about voter ID, which, yes, is broadly popular. There's so much else in there, some draconian restrictions about, it would disenfranchise so many Americans, millions of Americans would not be able to vote. And as we talked about a great length yesterday, it really feels like it's more of a rig elections act, as well as a bunch of other GOP

priorities tossed in there. It's not popular. That's not what Americans want this administration to focus on. It also, of course, continues as part of President Trump's crusade against mail-in voting. He was asked about that yesterday at the White House. Let's take a listen. Tell me about mail-in ballots going. You may not use a mail-in ballot. You probably said, yeah, I did. You know what? Because I'm president of the United States, and because of the fact that I'm president of the United States, I did a mail-in ballot for elections that took place in Florida because I felt I should be here instead of being in the beautiful sunshine. That's right.

And I, yeah. And I decided that I was going to vote by mail-in ballot because I couldn't be there because I had a lot of different things. But, you know, we have exceptions for mail-in ballots. You do know that, right? So if you're away, we have an exception. If you're in the military, we have an exception. If you're in a business trip, we have an exception.

If you're disabled, we have an exception. And if you're ill, if you're not feeling. and good. So I was away, mostly in Washington, D.C., so I used the mail and bell. But I appreciate the question, because I know it was so well-meaning. The other part of that exchange is the reporter there, Elizabeth Landers from PBS, notes that President Trump was actually in Florida the last couple of weekends and could have simply gone to the polling place, voted early, just a mile or so down the road from both Mar-a-Lago and his golf course, where he spent most of the weekend. And John Hammond, again, And it's sort of the hypocrisy, I suppose, is not all that surprising.

But there are also so many Republicans who are pulling their hair out because it's like, Mr. President, our voters use mail-in ballots too. Well, right, Jonathan. I mean, not only is it obviously hypocritical, and we could spend all day just on the hypocrisy of it, but there's also just, I mean, just if you actually just take the argument on its face, you know, Trump constantly talks about how mail-in voting is fraudulent across the board. On any other day, you can hear him out there talking about how, you know, we got to get rid of mail-in-balloting entirely because it's obviously just the way the Democrats, a tool the Democrats used to cheat. So beyond the hypocrisy of it, it's just an incredibly illogical set of arguments.

He's basically saying, well, bail-in-balloting is, mail-in voting is terrible, except in certain circumstances that are the circumstances that really pertain to millions of people, in addition to Donald Trump, that list of litany of things that he just said there about why he had to vote by mail. This is, to your broader point, though, it is often forgotten that for the longest time, through most of our lifetimes and through most of the history of mail-in voting in America, mail-in voting was seen as something that favored Republicans and not Democrats. It is the thing that the Republican Party banked on for the longest time as a source of a kind of electoral advantage and not as a disadvantage. and the fact that Trump has stood this on its head in the way that he has, except, of course, you'll note in 2024 when he was on the ballot and he was persuaded to back off his critiques

of mail-in voting because his very smart political team told him that in order to win some of the important battleground states that if he needed to have mail-in balloting, he needed to stop denigrating it or else he was going to end up doing himself harm. So this is a not only obviously callous, obviously cynical, obviously politically driven, crusade. It's also one that is, like so many things Donald Trump does, self-defeating and more importantly, defeating to a lot of people in his own party when it comes to these midterm elections. And one note from Politico this morning. President Trump sent his mail-in ballot from Palm Beach, so he wasn't at the White House doing his business, as he claimed there. Senior writer at the dispatch and columnist of Bloomberg opinion. David Drucker, thank you very much. We'll be reading your latest reporting on Trump's endorsements ahead of the midterm. Still.