Morning Joe - Trump claims gas prices will drop when we "win" Iran war

Episode Date: September 8, 2026

September 8, 2026: 8am — Trump claims gas prices will drop when we "win" Iran war  To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The vice president said yesterday that he would not describe the conflict with Iran as a war. But the U.S. resumed strikes for the first time in recent weeks. Can you explain to the American people if this is not a war? What exactly is it? Well, I'll tell you what, a lot of people don't call it a war. I call it a military conflict because it's small potatoes for us. It's not a big thing. We did Venezuela and we did this.

In Venezuela, we lost nobody and this. We lost 18 people. And in Vietnam, you lost 100. thousand people and in other conflicts. You lost tens of thousands of people. I can understand what he's saying. It's a military conflict, but it's very intermittent. I could see somebody not calling it away. That is how President Trump characterized the situation with Iran to reporters on Friday. Now he's back to calling it a war and one that we have not one. We'll go through that new social media Post. Speaking of the president's online activity, the Canadian Prime Minister said last week,

he would start negotiating again with the Trump administration when the memes stopped. But the president yesterday posted this AI-generated map of North America. It comes as tariffs from Canada are now in effect targeting roughly $20 billion of imported goods from the United States. Meanwhile, we've reached the post-Labor-day push for the mid-term elections. We're going to go through new polling on the key races that could determine control of Congress next year. And good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Tuesday, September 8th. It's good to be back together again along with Joe, Willie and me.

We have the co-host of our 8 a.m. hour staff writer at the Atlantic, Jonathan Lemire, co-host of the rest is politics podcasts, the BBC's Katty Kay, and columnist and associate editor at the Washington Post. David Ignatius is with us as well. Well, you know, you get after Labor Day Willie, and you get a lot of things going. Of course, the pennant race is just about to start in baseball, college football's coming back,

and of course, the U.S. Open. We've had a great start to the U.S. Open as it moves to a pretty exciting conclusion. But, man, it looks like Tiafo, one of the great stories of, of this open so far. Just unbelievable. This immigrant, this man from an immigrant family, just really captivating the entire tennis world. And certainly, everybody in New York that's watching the Open. Yeah, a lot of Americans left in the tournament, which obviously makes it a lot

more fun for those of us who are fans, particularly in this week, as we move toward the quarterfinals, the semifinals, and this weekend's finals, you've got Shelton, you've got Tiafo on the women's side. You've got Kugula, Cocoa, Kof. is still there. So you've got all the American headliners, or most of them anyway, still playing, which makes this week, it's just a fun time. It feels like once we move past Labor Day, it's the important part of

the U.S. Open, as you said, the pennant races heat up with, I know you're excited about this, and Lemire is too. The return tonight, Joe, of Aaron Judge, after three months away. How exciting. Yeah, that's great. ...clinging to a two-game lead, by the way, over the Red Sox, who keep

going, who are these guys? They keep going on these winning streets five in a row now. for the Red Sox. And as you mentioned, college football, weird game last night, but a good first weekend. So this is a fun time to come back sports-wise. Yeah, it really is. It's also when, of course, the weekend after Labor Day, the week after Labor Day is usually when elections are considered, or have traditionally been considered, to be launched.

Actually, that's from the old days because now, of course, we're already bumping up against early voting in states like North Carolina. But if you look at the state of the race right now, and just right now, new national polling averages from Nate Silver finds Democrats are leading in most of this November's key U.S. Senate races. The date shows Democrats they had in every race except for the ones in Iowa in Kansas.

You see Roy Cooper up 8.5%. John Ossoff, 8% in Minnesota plus 5. Maine plus four. Wow. Ohio 3.3. New Hampshire. Chris Pappas, despite yelling to anybody who will listen, he's losing,

he's losing, he's losing, please give me money. The polling averages has him up by about three in New Hampshire. In Michigan, El-Said up 2.1%. Tala Rico, 1.8%. Mary Potola, a really good candidate for a Democrat in Alaska. up in Iowa, you have Republicans up in Iowa, barely, and in Kansas. But, you know, Jonathan Lemire, those are all a lot closer than the Democrats or Republicans

would have expected some time ago. And is there any belief that the White House is going to change their behavior in a way that will help Republican candidates more as this election gets closer? I mean, Republicans keep looking to the White House for some sort of lifeline, and they're not getting it. The war continues. The tariff wars continue. Prices remain high.

Trump seems far more interested in his own personal vanity projects. The ballroom, now there's word that the construction on the arch is set to begin there between the Lincoln Memorial and Arlington National Cemetery. Now, there's some reporting this week that Trump's going to kick off his road show. He's going to be traveling and doing rallies for some of these candidates come this fall. That's perhaps a mixed blessing. But you know, you say that's a mixed blessing. I know Carl Rove is like, you know, wrote last week and Wall Street Journal, no, please don't.

This is the last thing they need. A different bizarre statement every day instead of different bizarre social media posts every day. Those sort of distractions are exactly the kind of distractions that Republicans say they don't need. No, they completely agree. And we're going to see it this week. Trump is going to try to make these midterms all about Trump. It's about ego, to be sure. It's also a bet that he can get some of his supporters who tend not to come out when his name is not on the ballot.

And of course, it will not be this fall to try to get some of them out this time. So we got this midterms convention this week in Dallas that it seems like nobody wants. And they're having trouble finding, giving people, giving tickets away to get people to go. You know, it's also opposite. You have to talk about sports. The NFL comes back this week, and this convention is up against the first two nights of that season. America's going to be watching in big numbers. The football, not the convention.

We also have candidates afraid that they don't want to come off the trail for a couple of days. And then if Trump is going to make the ads about himself, and if indeed he follows through on this rally schedule, and we should note other talk earlier this year about him hitting the road for domestic campaigning largely hasn't happened. But if he does, well, then yeah, maybe, just maybe they turn out some of his, like, hardcore supporters. But at the same time, Joe, to your point, it risks alienating those who might be on the fence. Those might be swing voters because Trump is so historically unpopular and is doing nothing to help his Republican candidates. Listen, here is just a reality. And you can go back to 2016. When Donald Trump's on the ballot, usually Republicans do better because people that don't vote in

elections regularly and certainly don't usually vote for Republicans will get out there and they will vote. And usually that'll pull some Republicans over the finish line. It didn't happen in 18. It didn't happen in 22 when he was selling people to go out even, you know, because his name began, not on the ballot. And chances are very good. It's not going to happen in 26 again because his name's not on the ballot. Now, I know a race that you're very interested in and a race that really transfixed a lot of a lot of the political class over the summer was Maine. And the whole idea that if Troy Jackson came in as a last second substitute, then Susan Collins was once again going to find a way to win the election there again, as she always does. But right now, Troy Jackson doing pretty well.

He seems to be hitting all the right notes. Wasn't sure when he started. It was a tough way to come in. We've seen this happen before on a major level, but he's hitting all the right notes. And I think he really is speaking to Mainers in a way that perhaps captures the essence of Graham, partner's campaign without all the drama. Right. So as gas prices hit record high this Labor Day weekend, President Trump is insisting to Americans that costs will soon come down. Trump posted last line on Truth Social that oil prices will drop precipitously when we win

the war with Iran. This, despite the president's numerous previous claims, the United States has already won in Iran and his repeated assurances, the ongoing conflict. Now, in its seventh month, isn't even a war. So which is it really? Well, I mean, I would call this a war. There's no doubt about it, David Ignatius. It's a war.

There's also really two ways to look at this. Number one, there's the way that Donald Trump, the politician, we want people to look at it, not a war, going to end soon. Gas prices are coming down. Or the way that Donald Trump, the president is looking at it, which is we're going to continue to do our best. to choke Iran off economically. And on that second point, which I think you and I have said for quite some time now,

it's the only way forward. You're not going to win this war militarily. You're not going to win it by sending a lot of troops to Korga Island or to the strait. You're going to win it by economically strangling the Iranian economy. It does seem like some progress is really being made there. Talk about it. So, Joe, I think that strategy of economic pressure is the sensible one a month ago, before I took a little vacation from my journalism. I said on your show and in The Washington Post that I thought basically Trump should shut up to stop talking about this war and let the economic pressure push Iran to the point that Iran finally said,

okay, you know, let's talk. Let's time for time to negotiate. What we're seeing is that as the economic pressure really begins to have an effect, Iran really is being squeezed now, they're pushing back. They're hurting. So what we just saw in the last few days is the Houthis, their allies in Yemen, beginning to fire directly on Saudi Arabia, causing several dozen casualties in Saudi Arabia. and that has pushed oil prices back up. Donald Trump only talks about how oil prices are going to come down when they've just gone up. So we have that.

We have a broader proxy wars resuming. Israel is on the attack again in Lebanon against Hezbollah. So I think, Joe, we may be entering a new phase in which Iran responds to the economic pressure. And then Trump has to decide whether to just keep squeezing avoid the military conflict that I think you and I are saying would be unwise for him, but make sure that economic pressure is tight as Iran flails and tries to strike back. But in this period, as we head toward the midterms,

there's every likelihood now that oil prices will stay high. Caddy, for months and months now, President Trump has just wanted this war to go away. He thought it would be four to six weeks. Military decisiveness would prevail. He thought quickly it has not. Not gases 4.15 a gallon this morning. It was 3.20 a year ago today. Fertilizer through the roof, which is hurting farmers, not to mention the beef policy and the tariffs and everything else that come with it. But in terms of Iran, I think it seems when you talk to Republicans, they've

accepted that this isn't going to end in time for the midterms, if you want to add politics to it. But they don't quite know when it's going to end or how. And what economic policies really will expedite the end of this war that President Trump said was small potato. and that wasn't a war and then called it a war in that post. Right. And the people who don't know this is going to end soon are the generals who are advising the Secretary of Defense that this is putting enormous strain on the American military. And it can't be upheld at this level for a long time because all of those troops

are out there having to be on kind of a state of permanent residence readiness because they are being told that this is a war. Whatever the president wants to call it, they are the American military knows that this is a war. and it's putting a lot of pressure on them. But from the Iranian point of view, as they feel this economic pressure, what are their options?

Their options are to strike. What they want to do is draw President Trump back into military conflict. The way that they do that is by taking military action of their own. And so you're going to see this cycle, I think, between now and the midterm elections, where the Iranians do keep hitting because they want this not to be about economic pressure.

That's what got them to the table back in 2014. They want this to be about military pressure. So I wouldn't expect to see the Iranians let up on these kind of other military activities, whether it's from Iran or from the Houthis. Well, you're going to be hearing a lot more threats as the economic grip titans. Yeah. You're going to hear threats of them attacking the U.S. homeland, which, of course, an extraordinarily stupid thing for them to do.

If they did that, all they would do would be to unite all Americans in this war. So that's certainly not a move. going to make, or if they do, they'll make it. It'll be the end of their government. Americans will support them to their government. So you're going to hear them sounding more and more extreme, more and more radical as this economic grip tightens around them. And the hope is, at some point, they do come to the table and they negotiate a peace that actually doesn't put them in a more powerful position than when this war first began. We've got a lot more to get to this morning still ahead on morning, Joe.

Canada's retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. are now, in effect, extending the ongoing trade war. And, you know, we talked through the Senate races. This is going to have a direct impact on the Senate race in Maine, in Michigan, and Minnesota, in Alaska, in Ohio. We'll get into all of that as well. And as we go to break, a look at the travelers' forecast this morning from Acqueweathers, Bernie Rayno.

Bernie, how's it looking? Meek, it's a terrific Tuesday, your acuether travel forecast in the northeast. How about sunshine, 81 in Boston, New York City? Beautiful day in Chicago, maybe a shower in Louisville. Some drenching thunderstorms, Florida Peninsula, East Texas. Other than that, the southeast is hot and dry. No big travel delays except for Miami this afternoon. We're also tracking Hurricane Lowell, unfortunately producing damage in the western island.

of Hawaii of Kauai and Nihau as it moves away this morning. To help you make the best decisions and be more in the know, download Yakia weather app today. Coming up, Money to Burn, our next guest is tracking the rise of a new Wall Street and what it says about the massive wealth gap in America. Morning Joe is back at a moment. Welcome back. Time now for a look at some of the other stories making headlines this morning, beginning with Nate Hachman, a former speechwriter for the presidential campaign

Ron DeSantis has now landed a senior role of the State Department under Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Now, Hachman was fired by the DeSantis campaign back in 2023 after promoting a video featuring a symbol associated with Nazi Germany and white supremacist movements. He later worked for a Rubio-linked advocacy group and Republican Senator Eric Schmidt. Now, Hachman is deputy director of the state's department's policy planning office and According to his email signature, he's Rubio's chief speechwriter. A State Department spokesman calls him a trusted member of the department.

Meanwhile, Ohio's Democratic nominee for governor is back on the campaign trail after authority said an armed man lunged at her while she was speaking to a crowd at a fair over the weekend. Dr. Amy Acton appeared at a rally yesterday in Cleveland, calling herself a fierce warrior. She was, thankfully, not injured in Sunday's incident. But officials say others were hurt as the man pushed his way through the crowd trying to reach Acton. 38-year-old Patrick Havas was arrested on charges of disorderly conduct and assault. Law enforcement reported finding two handguns, a set of brass knuckles, and a taser on the suspect after arresting him. They say he did not brandish the weapons during the incident. but this is yet another worrisome incident, apparently, of political violence.

Also this morning, new details are emerging after an Amazon cargo plane, operated by 21 Air, overran a runway at Miami International Airport on Sunday, killing five people and injuring five others. In a press conference yesterday, the chairwoman of the National Transportation Safety Board said the aircraft struck a van that was owned by an airline cleaning contractor that had seven people inside before they went on to hit another vehicle. All five of the deceased were in that van and that vehicle, according to the NTSB. Investigators were able to recover the flight data recorder and the cockpit voice recorder from the plane. The NTSB expects to be in Miami for the next week collecting evidence, but says it will not determine a probable cause for the plane crash

during that time, those conclusions usually take much longer. Still out here on Morning Joe, the host of Money, Power, Politics. Stephanie Ruhl will join us to break down the latest developments in the trade war between the United States and Canada, as our neighbors to the North are now imposing tariffs targeting roughly $20 billion of imported goods from the United States. Morning Joe is coming right back with that and more. I had a German Shepherd, and there was a toxin that used to in Texas. agonize her at the playground. And it kind of reminds me of that. It kind of kind of reminds me of that.

And this little yippy dog, they used to just like bark away. And, you know, for a long time, 110-pound German Shepherd was ignoring the dachshund. And then one day she'd had enough. And unfortunately, Prime Minister Carney did walk away. They were given a, the opportunity for a great trade deal and that they didn't want it. And it looks like it's for political reasons. But the U.S., it is not much of a hit to us, if any. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent with that analogy over the weekend comparing Canada, our friends, our neighbors to the north, to a little yippie dog in his words. Now, Canada's retaliatory tariffs have officially gone into effect, impacting roughly $20 billion worth of U.S. goods.

The tariffs applied to a range of products like steel and aluminum, clothing, cheese, and electronics, and range from 15 to 25 or even 50%. They went into effect last night at midnight and come after talks between the U.S. and Canada fell apart rather dramatically last month. In the fallout, the U.S. imposed its own 50% tariffs on Canadian goods, and Prime Minister Mark Carney vowed to retaliate. Now, just hours before Canada implemented its new. tariffs, President Trump threatened to stop the sale of jets from a Canadian aircraft manufacturer,

writing on social media, if they want our market, they must build here and stop treating America like a piggy bank. But we shall note the company that Trump mentioned, it already employs hundreds of workers in Kansas. Joining us now, MS now, senior business analyst and host of money, power, politics, Stephanie Ruh. Steph, great to see you this morning. So let's start with with the economic impact here. Certainly the United States' economy, bigger than Canada's. No one's disputing that. But they can inflict some pain.

So what will this mean for your average American? In the short term, right, this is not a huge amount of money. We're not going to see a huge impact here. But over the long term, this back and forth, if we're actually seeing this happen with aluminum and metals or the company you're talking about is Bombardier, right? This company has operations in 20 different states, and to your point, employs hundreds and hundreds of people here. So it's not just what is the impact now that these tariffs are in place today. This back and forth, right?

You could say it's a nuisance today. It could be a disaster tomorrow because Canada is an ally that we rely on them and they rely on us. And I haven't even mentioned the political impact. Think about these crucial midterms in states like Michigan and Maine and Iowa. it's dealt more into the political impact. Obviously, the tariffs and trade could play a large role in the upcoming midterms. An analysis by New York Times on the impact of some of the Trump administration's economic policies on the state of Colorado. And by doing so, the Times found that farmers or ranchers in that state have been struggling with higher costs for fuel and fertilizer due to the tariffs and the war on Iran.

And matters were made worse when Trump agreed to allow cheaper beef imports into the country. Now, Colorado, of course, is not the only state to be affected. The Times found that tariff and trade issues could be decisive in, quote, Marquis Senate contests in Maine, Michigan, Alaska, New Hampshire, Ohio, as well as competitive House races across the Midwest. Even in conservative, South Dakota, Republican Senator Mike Rounds said as recently as last week that ranchers feel like Trump pulled the rug right out from underneath them. And it's rare to have a loyalist speak like that, criticize Trump.

But the Times is right, and as you were getting to, there are so many, you almost could overlay a map of key Senate races. And so many of them are going to be impacted by these terrorists. But the president doesn't look at that map. The president looks at or speaks to whoever is in his office, right? And he says, what? We have to do something about beef prices. Let's bring some from overseas. And you could say, well, there's a farm aid bill.

Maybe these farmers are going to be okay for now. No. Once you open the floodgates, once you start these. traded relationships with other countries. Once, for example, if China is saying, we don't need to buy our soybeans from U.S. farmers, once that starts to happen, you cannot just reverse these things. And the impact of Trump's tariffs are hurting American businesses and they're hurting American consumers.

And I just want to say with regard to Scott Besson and that pesky little dog, I guess I must be that pesky little chihuahua. And I guess Laura Trump is that loving, you know, family Labrador. because I can't seem to get an interview with him. But boy, he sits down with the president's daughter-in-law. And don't you and I cover economics here every single day? We do, but yet he has not deigned to make an appearance in quite some time. This is your open invitation, Mr. Secretary.

Steph stick with us because it's still ahead. billionaire investor Leon Black is suing Congress after refusing to appear for a House oversight interview about his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. Now in a new book titled Money to Burn, author William Cohen, examines that relationship and the scandal that ultimately cost Black his company. He'll join us straight ahead here on Morning Joe. Live shot there at the U.S. Capitol 842 in the morning here on the East Coast on Tuesday, the day after Labor Day.

Now, billionaire investor Leon Black is suing the House Oversight Committee after he refused to attend a scheduled interview last week relating to his ties to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. Black was close with Epstein for years, paying him more than $150 million for what Black claimed was tax advice and other services. Black insists he did not know the extent of Epstein's crimes, but the revelation of their close relationship was a major reason the billionaire was forced out of the company he built. And now a book is telling that story. Money to burn, the unvarnished truth about Leon Black, Apollo, and the rise of a new Wall Street. The book, which is out today, chronicles the founding of Black's company, Apollo Global Management,

and how his scandals forced him to eventually give it up. Black was interviewed for the book, and in it, discusses his relationship with Epstein. Joining us now, the author of that book, Award-winning writer and former investment banker William Cohen. William, great to see you again. Congratulations on this book. Let's just start here. For those who don't really know Leon Black, certainly, Steph knows Leon Black. Those in finance know Leon Black, but maybe not a household name for many. Tell us a little bit about who he is, where that money's from, and his ties to Jeffrey. Well, first of all, thank you for having me back. It's great to be back here. Look, it's a great story.

That's the main thing I like to focus on in any book project that I do, and this is my eighth book. So I knew this would be a great story. Leon is a great story. He was a reluctant Wall Street banker. His father was a big financier conglomerator on Wall Street, the CEO of a public company who committed suicide. Spoiler alert. And that affected Leon's whole life, frankly, as you would expect that it would. He was like a philosophy major at Dartmouth. And then after his father's death, decided he pretty much had to be the breadwinner in the family.

and reluctantly went to Wall Street, but he was so good at it that he rose to be the head of M&A at Drexel. And then when Drexel blew up, I don't know if people remember Drexel, but it was a very powerful firm once upon a time, blew up in 1990. And then after that, he started Apollo Global Management to be a different kind of private equity firm, made a lot of money, took it public. He and his colleagues made a lot of money. He's probably worth like $15 billion. And then the poor judgment started. Relationships with Jeffrey Epstein, relationships with women who are not his wife, and then, as you said, losing control of his company. Okay, but we're saying this. Unfortunately, he lost control of his company. Bill, he's still worth $15 billion. Right. He's not living in hiding. I'm guessing here we are approaching the U.S. Open finals. Leon Black will probably be sitting in one of the best seats at Arthur Ashe Stadium. and his son, Ben Black, has an enormous job running the Development Finance Corp inside the Trump administration.

And yet, he has still yet to give any reasonable or rational explanation, why he, one of the most successful men on all of Wall Street. Sure, maybe he dated some women on the side, but no explanation for why he paid Jeffrey Epstein, $150 million? I think there's a question in there, Stephanie. Look, first of all, I think we have to stipulate that what Jeffrey Epstein did with women was horrific and unexplicable and deserves serious condemnation. Leon's involvement with him, look, there was a report by a law firm that was commissioned by Apollo that found him, cleared him of wrongdoing. I obviously, Stephanie, asked him many, many times, you are Leon Black, you are this.

great Wall Street financier, you are smarter than everyone else. How could you have such poor judgment by not only associating with Jeffrey Epstein, who you knew had been a convicted criminal, but also given him $158 million for what you claim to be tax and estate advice? So he, many times we went over this and over this and over this. And sometimes I was sitting there, no, don't, don't give me a rational explanation for this, Leon, because I, I frankly, I don't believe you. And I wrote a piece about how I didn't believe him in Vanity Fair after this Decker report came out. But we went over it many times.

And, you know, the truth is that he has his explanation, which is that it was tax and estate advice. He let me interview his lawyers who basically ratified that. The other party to these transactions, Stephanie, as we know, is dead. And it's very hard to get to the bottom of. of this. There's obviously now three million emails out of six million. Maybe the other three million that haven't been released will shed more light on this. I went through them as carefully and as quickly as I could. And again, I saw a lot of ranting from Jeffrey Epstein, but no engagement from Leon Black. And so we're sort of left with what is Leon's explanation of this.

I remain somewhat incredulous. I think most people are remained somewhat incredulous. Certainly Ron Wyden does, certainly Jim Comer does. But unfortunately, we're left where we are because the other side of this equation is dead, and Jelaine Maxwell ain't talking if she even knows. So he hasn't been convicted of anything, and he's still out there worth a lot of money and doing his thing. Well, the readers can certainly make their own judgments in part by picking up the new book, Money to Burn, the Unvarnished Truth about Leon Black, Apollo, and the rise of a new wall. Street. It is available now. Author William Cohen, Bill, thank you so much for joining us this morning. Stephanie Rueh. Thank you as well. We, of course, will be handing off coverage to you here on MS now

at the top of the hour, just about 10 minutes away. Coming out next on Morning Joe, we'll bring an update on Prince Harry's move back to the United Kingdom. We're going to tell you what King Charles, King Charles is saying about the Royal Return. Morning Joe, we'll be right back with that. Welcome back. We want to hit a few more headlines now before the top of the hour, beginning with a federal appeals court ruling that the U.S. Constitution does not guarantee the right to clean drinking water. The decision was in a response to a 2022 lawsuit from residents of Jackson, Mississippi, who argued that the city knowingly allowed people to drink lead-contaminated water. In the majority decision, one judge called the lack of clean water grievous, but said it did not infringe upon any deeply rooted constitutional right.

following the ruling, the mayor of Jackson said the city remains committed to the health, safety, and well-being of every residence. Sort of hard to believe that one. Elsewhere, King Charles is speaking out about the status of Prince Harry and Megan Markle following their return to the United Kingdom. In a letter sent to senior government officials and then released publicly, the king said the couple will continue to refrain from using their royal titles, as they have done since stepping back from official royal duties in 2020. The letter adds that any charity work the two undertake will be carried out in a private capacity and operational security decisions are matters for the relevant police agencies. That does it for us this morning. Thank you for watching. We'll see you again tomorrow. It's 6 a.m. Easter for other morning, Joe.

Money, power, politics with Stephanie Rule is up next after a short final break.