Morning Joe - U.S., Iran Send Conflicting Signals on State of War

Episode Date: May 7, 2026

U.S., Iran Send Conflicting Signals on State of War To listen to this show and other MS podcasts without ads, sign up for MS NOW Premium on Apple Podcasts. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

The stock market's higher now than when we started this war. And I thought oil prices would go to $200, $250. It's at $100 now. And I think you're surprised and I'm surprised. But even if it went to $200, it would have been worth it. And I said, I hate to do this, but we have to make an excursion down to Iran because we can't let them have a nuclear weapon. Because as tough as they are, we want to keep them alive.

We want to keep all of you alive. Iran could not have a nuclear weapon, and they won't. And they've agreed to that, among other things. President Trump in the Oval Office yesterday flanked by UFC fighters defending the rising costs Americans are paying as a result of his war with Iran. Meanwhile, he continues to insist there have been very good talks with Iran. But it's not clear if the new regime is ready to end this conflict. in fact, they seem to indicate otherwise. We'll bring you the very latest.

And speaking of the economic pain Americans are feeling the national average for a gallon of gas is over $4.50. And the White House Economic Advisor yesterday bragged about the way consumers are paying for fuel. Democrats now pouncing on those comments. We'll explain that. Plus, we're following everything coming out of the Vatican this morning

as Secretary of State Marco Rubio meets with Pope Leo amid President Trump's continuous criticism of the pontiff. And good morning and welcome to Morning Joe. It is Thursday, May 7th. We have the co-host of our 9 a.m. hour staff writer at the Atlantic, Jonathan Lemire, former spokesperson for the U.S. mission to the United Nations, Hagar Shemali. She also worked at the National Security Council and the Treasury Department.

MS now senior national security reporter David Rode. Columnist and associate editor at the Washington Post, David Ignatius, and CEO and co-founder of Axis Jim Van de Haid. Great group to start off this Thursday morning. We're going to get back to the latest back and forth between President Trump and Iranian officials in just a moment. But first, one of the big fallouts from the war continues to be rising fuel prices, particularly jet fuel. We're now learning the Trump administration and Republican officials are privately concerned about the political fallout from those increases. The Wall Street Journal reports, former New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, now the president of the Industry Group Airlines for America, visited Treasury Secretary Scott Besant recently to deliver the warning that airfares will only surge if the war in Iran does not end soon. shipping traffic, though, through the Strait of Hormuz, remains at a standstill.

Sununu told the journal he believes the Trump administration wants to wrap up the war, but that, quote, ticket prices won't go down immediately. He went on to say that prices will likely remain elevated through the fall. We've already seen the impact of higher fuel prices play out for Spirit Airlines, which recently began court proceedings after filing for bankruptcy. other low-cost carriers like Frontier face similar challenges. And new polling shows the impact this is having with voters. The latest NPR PBS Marist poll finds 35% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of the economy,

a top issue for voters. One factor is the rising cost of gas. 63% say they blame President Trump a great deal or a good amount. for the current increase in prices at the pump. Overall, just 37% approve of the job Trump is doing compared to 59% who disapprove. That is Trump's highest disapproval rating ever recorded by Maris throughout both of his terms.

And if the 26 midterms were held today, the poll shows 52% of voters would cast a ballot for the Democratic congressional candidate versus 42% who would choose a Republican. So we go from the global look at what's happening with the war to how it is playing with American voters. Jim Vandehi, what does this tell us in terms of the politics of the war in Iran? And also, it seems like every day there's a new update on the war in Iran that doesn't really pan out.

Americans trust in this administration's ability to lead and not. tell the truth. Yeah. I mean, those poll numbers are bad. There's no way to sugarcoat it if you're a Republican. It's hard to go below 35% in polling in American politics because the base of the party in power always kind of has at least that 35% support. It's kind of red meat. It's real most passionate voters. And listen, it's great. Trump is right. If you're in the stock market, you're rich, it's a good time to be alive. You're making a lot of money. Market keeps surging. you're getting involved in some of these secondary deals and these AI companies that are booming, that's not most Americans.

Most Americans aren't sitting there with big stock portfolios. Most Americans don't have highly lucrative 401K plans. They have cash and they have things they need to spend it on and they spend a lot of it on gas and they spend the extra money that they have to go on a trip using an airplane or a car. And so those things really hurt. And that's the reason that every election we ever have is usually about the economy. and there's a sour, sour mood, and that manifests itself in that generic poll you showed where Democrats are beating Republicans quite convincingly.

It's why Republicans think they'll lose the House and think they might lose the Senate. That's a bad place to be. And it doesn't seem like there's an easy way out of this for the president. There's not, he so desperately wants to say the war's over, that they have a deal, that the Iranians have agreed to everything. And I think there has been some progress behind the scenes. David Ignatius can talk more thoroughly about. that than I can, but no one thinks this is going to end anytime soon. And even when you do, the downstream effects are already cooked in. Those gas prices are not coming down significantly

anytime soon. And we'll get to David Ignatius on that point. In just a moment, you also mention Americans and their cash flow, White House Economic Advisor, Kevin Hassett, is getting a lot of attention online for comments he made yesterday on Fox business. Take a look. And so the consumer is really, really firing on all cylinders, just like the corporate. sector you're seeing in the earnings reports. And they're doing that because they have so much more money in their pockets. In fact, I had the head of one of the big five banks in my office yesterday going through the credit card data. And just as Secretary Besson said, credit card spending is through the roof. They're spending more on gasoline, but they're spending more on everything else, too.

No, no, no, they don't have more money in their pockets. That's just not true. Just like the president saying affordability is a joke. This is a complete disconnect between the administration and the American people. And the administration's view of maybe how their lives are going and how their friends' lives are going and how the American people are living every single day. And it is impossible for them not to notice. They're not doing very well. And everything is much more expensive. Can't buy a home. Can't get health care. Can't afford their health care. can't get to their health care to access that health care because the rural hospitals have been closed,

because certain departments or divisions within hospitals have been closed, because certain doctors are afraid to do life-saving treatments. It goes on and on and on. And several Democratic lawmakers responded to a part of that clip. Senator Bernie Sanders wrote, Americans forced to put more of their spending on credit cards because of outrageously high prices.

That's a win for big banks. It's a disaster for working people. And Senator Elizabeth Warren said the Trump administration is raising your costs and celebrating it on live TV. Meanwhile, Pod Save America host, John Favreau joked, we must consider the possibility that Kevin Hassett is secretly working for the Democrats. Politically, I guess, a win, but nobody wants to see the American people suffering, Jonathan Lamere.

No, that's exactly right. I mean, Trump administration, billionaire friends, they're doing well. Plenty of corporations are doing well. The stock market's doing well. The president, we know he views the health of the economy by the stock market, but that's not how most Americans feel. And these prices are high. And they're certainly at the gas pump.

We're seeing airfare, but in many other walks of life as well. And this is why so many Republicans, even just a couple Republicans were critical of Hasseh yesterday. Justin Amash said so that this is, you know, others were so. this is just disconnected from reality. And it's not going away anytime soon. And that's, we're seeing that tweet there. That's what I think privately, many around Trump do realize that even if this war were

to end tomorrow, which it likely will not, the high prices are going to persist for a long time. And that is just toxic for the GOP heading into November's midterm. So as for the war, the United States and Iran continue to give mixed messages about potential negotiations to end it. President Trump yesterday once again insisted Iran wants to make a deal, saying the two sides have had, in his words, very good talks this week, while also threatening the possibility of more attacks. Iran's foreign ministry, meanwhile, says the country is considering a U.S. plan to conclude the conflict, while earlier yesterday an Iranian lawmaker dismissed it as an American wish list. Axios is reporting that the memorandum of understanding would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day.

period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran's nuclear program, and lift U.S. sanctions. Now, MS now has not confirmed that original reporting from Axios, but a Pakistani official linked with mediating talks between the U.S. and Iran tells our contributor in Zemam al-Rashid that the prospect of a proposal to end the war is very likely in the coming days. At the same time, U.S. Central Command says U.S. forces yesterday fired. on an Iranian oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman after the ship sailed toward an Iranian port in what it calls a violation of the American blockade. So David Ignatius, help us sift through this. There have been a number of times during this conflict where Trump has declared it almost over.

He's also declared victory more times as I can count. The Pakistanis, look, hey, they're trying their best, but they've been relentlessly optimistic throughout all of this, and some of that optimism has not borne fruit. And even yesterday, we had more from leaders from Tehran really push back against the reports that a deal was close. So maybe there'll be some negotiations in the days ahead. But tell us what you know, has any progress actually been made to bring this war to a close? So Jonathan, I can confirm the Axios reporting that there is a basic framework, memorandum that would be exchanged by the two sides, and then follow. by a 30-day period of negotiation on the details.

The details of limiting Iranian enrichment, banning it outright for 12 to 15 years, other limits, a gradual process for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a declaration of an end of the state of war in the region, which would mean that the U.S. forces adjacent to Iran would pull back and that Iranian proxies would be limited in some new ways that aren't specified. The problem with this outline is that it's just that. If you have the sense with President Trump that he's sort of like a boat tacking to windward, he goes this way and that way and this way, and he's making gradual progress toward the deal he wants,

but it takes a long time and there are constant reversals. That's what this negotiation is like. One thing that I've learned that really is interesting is that the administration's negotiations, although they're still working with the Pakistani mediators and the kind of formal line of negotiation that they began, three weeks ago, have also been working back channels, trying to contact new people within the IRGC, the Iranian hardline group, in the hopes of pulling people away and encouraging them. to think that there's a different path for the country. Whether that will bear fruit should be clear in the next 24 to 48 hours.

But the details of a possible plan are pretty far along. And I think it's a question of whether there is the political will in Iran to embrace this deal. There's a lot in it for them in terms of ending the war, but also in terms of getting billions of dollars in frozen assets back to them. I think that the final thing to say about this is President Trump's willingness to contemplate a deal that's well short of the goals that he originally said when he talked about unconditional surrender shows you just how strong the economic and now political pressures on him are to make a deal. he clearly wants one to the point that he pulled back from his project freedom blockade plan two days ago

in the hopes that this package that I'm describing might land. But we're still, we're still, as I say, a day or two from knowing whether this is real or another faint that's going to disappear because of misunderstandings on both sides. And David Road, we've certainly learned to be skeptical. by the time the president voices optimism that a deal is close. And let's be clear, even if this were to open, 30-day period for the straight-of-war moves would still likely be closed during that. That would the economic fallout there would be significant. So David Nash has a great point that of the administration's original goals of the war, yes, they decimated the Iranian Navy, but everything else, they have fallen short. So President Trump, who hates the idea of

anything else than a clear-cut winner, would like, have to compromise those goals in order to take this deal. And also, he's not wrong that it's hard to know who to talk to in Tehran right now because their leadership is so fractured. So I want to credit, I think there's people around the president who are working really hard to make this happen. The Pakistanis are trying very hard as you do, as you said. I just think flat out this, I just want to call it a 30-day one-page agreement. Yeah. Is a win for Iran. It's a huge win. They have like stood up to the United States and linked.

We can talk about that in more detail. B, I keep getting told that the Iranian, Israeli officials are saying there's deep divides inside the Iranian government, but American officials are telling me that that's not true, that the IRGC is in firm control, firmer controlled than they were before the war, and one congressional official just called it a military dictatorship. And I fear that this pursuit of somehow moderates or other people is not really there. It's that they're being told these things, the administration, they believe it. So I just am, and lastly, this one-page agreement is not a peace deal.

This is not a peace deal. This is an extension of a ceasefire that several weeks ago, the president said there was no end of the ceasefire. The president keeps capitulating. He said before I, you know, this is like several weeks ago, he's like, you know, we're going to, this is, we're going to, we have a ceasefire for two weeks. Right. And when that ends, he's like, actually, the ceasefire will continue with no end date. And then the pitiful thing was this project freedom to open the straightover moves by force. That was the most aggressive, I think, the most effective move by the U.S. military.

It worked. And then he calls it off after 24 hours. And so that's, again, a huge win for Iran. So this is not a peace agreement. I want to ask you about that, Hagar. But first, China is stepping into a more prominent diplomatic role in the Iran conflict, just days before President Trump meets Chinese president. Xi Jinping in Beijing. Yesterday, Iran's foreign minister traveled to China for high-level talk,

signaling closer coordination between Tehran and Beijing. Following the meeting, the Chinese foreign minister called for a comprehensive ceasefire and urged quick action to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. It comes as the Trump administration has been openly pressing China to use its influence to over Tehran, to ease tensions, and lift Iran's effective chokehold on the straight, you can comment on that, but also to David Rhodes' point, it seems like the president's messaging doesn't instill confidence. Is it safe to say? It doesn't also sometimes match the reality on the ground. And these moment-to-moment updates that get undermined by Iran shows sort of little control over the situation. Your thoughts? Yeah. So first, to close the point on China,

because China is a really important one. And I would follow that one closely through next week, because you have the Beijing summit that's taking place on May 14th. President Trump is going there, and both sides want to see the straight open by the time that summit happens. Otherwise, the summit itself might not go so well. And that's because the U.S. is pressuring China and saying, we don't want to see you buying sanctioned Iranian oil. And China has just told its refineries to ignore that call. So it's a very tense moment, and they both want it to be successful. To your point, and David and both Davids actually, the points from both Davids were very important. I love that you mentioned the point about Project Freedom.

This is such an important one. This was the U.S.'s effort to checkmate the Iranian regime. They said, by we're going to go guide these vessels out of the Strait of Hormuz. And it was a checkmate. Why? Because they told the Iranian regime, if we can do this, then you don't have control over the strait. And if you attack, you're breaking the ceasefire and we're going to return to war.

So what happened? The Iranian regime lobbed missiles in the strait and at the UAE. And we didn't return to war. Yes, we attacked one Iranian ship, but it didn't return to that. And the problem with that is that if Trump's bravado here, he's sent 50,000 troops to the region, if the U.S. doesn't appear as though it's willing to back up these statements with military action, then the Iranian regime looks at as a significant point of weakness. So on one hand, yes, you have these efforts to one up each other publicly.

And you see Trump saying, oh, yes, talks are going well, but I'm not, the latest thing is he said, I'm not going. We're not going to send people now to talks for the next round. We haven't set that yet because he's trying to do a negotiating tactic. Look like he's comfortable, look like he's willing to walk away. That's a classic negotiating tactic. But the fact is that if the U.S. doesn't appear like it's willing to use its military force, then that is for the regime a win.

All right. I want to ask David Ignatius after a break. Well, you know, the big picture of this and what we've learned from history, particularly in 1979 about not just China, but Iran and negotiating. with Iran. Still ahead on Morning Joe, what we're learning this morning about a purported suicide note from convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein

that's been unsealed by a judge. Plus, health officials are working to contain an outbreak of a deadly virus after several cruise ship passengers have been sickened. We'll have the latest on that. We'll also be joined by the Democrat looking to unseat Republican

Governor Greg Abbott of Texas. And as we go to break, a quick Quick look at the Travelers forecast this morning from Acuweather's Bernie Rayno. Bernie, how's it looking? Meek, it's a cooler Thursday, exclusive ACUther forecast shows a lingering shower this morning. Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, then clouds will break, limited sunshine in Washington, D.C. How about 50s in Chicago with an afternoon shower or so? Watch your strong thunderstorms Florida panhandle here this morning.

Some leftover rain and the thunderstorms, Charlotte and Charleston. as we go through the morning hours, should be a nice day in Dallas. No big travel delays along the East Coast, just some lingering rain and some minor delays in Atlanta this morning. To help you make the best decisions and be more in the note. Download the ACUweather app today. Welcome back. A federal judge has made a public, a purported suicide note written by Jeffrey Epstein. The note was originally under seal in the criminal case of a former cellmate of the deceased sex offender.

the letter dates to what was believed to be Epstein's unsuccessful suicide attempt in July of 2019. The handwritten note begins, quote, they investigated me, found nothing. It also includes statements about choosing, quote, one's time to say goodbye. It's important to note the letter's authenticity has not been confirmed. Epstein's cellmate told the New York Times that he discovered the note inside of a graphic novel after Epstein was found dead hanging from a bunk bed in his cell in August of 2019. New York City's chief medical examiner determined Epstein died by suicide. The Justice Department did not comment on the notes release.

Meanwhile, House Oversight Committee lawmakers questioned Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik for several hours yesterday during a closed-door interview on his ties to Jeffrey Epstein. It comes after Justice Department documents revealed Lutnik had misrepresented his relationship with the late sex offender. Lutnik has not been accused of any wrongdoing in connection to Epstein's crimes, but he previously claimed to have cut ties with Epstein after a meeting in 2005. In his opening statement, Lutnik said he met Epstein only three times once for a tour of his home after they became neighbors once again during an invitation to Ebstin. Island in 2012 and once more to discuss a construction project on Epstein's New York City home that may have had impact on Lutnik's residence next door. After hours of questioning, Democrats told reporters Lutnik did not admit to misleading Americans about his ties to Epstein, with one Congresswoman saying he repeatedly characterized their interactions as meaningless and inconsequential. So we'll continue to follow that. Turning back now to the war in Iran, David Ignatius, I wanted to ask, as we are watching these back and forths on the public stage between the president and Iran, we learned a lot about Iran in 1979 for sure and China. And I'm curious what you hope the administration would take into consideration as they approached this war and the messaging around it and the reasons for it.

So, Mika, since the revolution in 1979, the United States has had a consistent problem, which is how to take this very destabilizing, very radical revolutionary movement, and encourage it, sanctions, offers of new trade opportunities. You remember during President Reagan's term, the secret mission to Tehran with one of our representatives carrying a cake to try to woo the Ayatollahs. Through all that time, there's been an attempt to draw Iran into a more stable, less revolutionary relationship. President Trump has been trying to do that using military force and now diplomacy. The concern is that Iran basically has taken America's best punch militarily.

We finally went to war against Iran, bombing. them last year and then sustained military campaign this year, and they're still standing, and they feel stronger and more confident. So the worry would be that rather than transforming the revolutionary regime, making it more moderate, more a part of the community of nations, this is reinforcing the hardline elements in Iran. So we'll have to see, never want to prejudge the results of negotiations. But if you stand back, as you were inviting me to do and look at the broad sweep of this story, you'd have to say that Iran has come through this war stronger in terms of its self-confidence,

its belief that it can stand up to the United States than it was before. And that's a worry that we all need to have. This is a regime that has chanted for 47 years, death to Israel, death to America. Has that really changed? And we don't know the answer yet. Yeah, I think David Nix is spot on there. So Hagar, with that idea that Iran's come through with this, perhaps it's a stronger position, and seems less willing to end the conflict, certainly less so than President Trump,

who's desperate to make a deal. So what would it take? I know you spent a lot of time thinking about the region. What sort of agreement would it take, you think, to actually bring this war to some sort of close? Well, to bring it to a close, I'm a big believer that you have to really threaten the military engagement, military force in order to make the Iranian regime bend to your demands. But there's a difference between bringing it to a close and undermining the Iranian regime so that it doesn't continue its nefarious behavior.

There are two things that I'm really concerned about. One is that if they get sanctions relief, which I'm just not sure how they're not going to at this stage, but if they get sanctions relief, then that's only going to repower them. And I understand that, and I believe the administration has taken years to rebuild their military. I understand that, except right now they're pursuing. terrorist attacks in Europe through a terrorist group called Ha'i. And that was very quick. It started right after the Iran war. And all of a sudden, you had about 17 attacks across Europe most recently

in Golders Green, where two Jews were stabbed. That's, so they're pursuing also these new tactics to say, you know what, we're not going to go down easily. We're going to find cheap and easy ways to terrorize everybody around the world. And if they have more money, that's only going to make it more easy. So I'm worried about that. You're going to have that. As long as the Iran regime stays in place, you're going to have that. So for what it takes to answer your question about what it takes to end the war completely is you got to, as we were just talking off air, speak softly and carry big stick, but I don't see the administration being willing to wield that stick right now. And right now, David, Iran is going to come out of this knowing they have more control over the Strait of Hormuz than they did going into the war. They know they can shut it.

And they can see the impact that will have on the global economy. So explain to us. We were talking, we've been talking with this offline a bunch the last day or two. explain why it's so mystifying, in your estimation, the U.S. abandoned Project Freedom to try to get ships through that street. There seems to be a concern in the Trump administration about too many American casualties. Other than that, that seems to be the main thing and that this war will spread. They just grossly miscalculated in terms of Iran seizing control of the strait, which they should have known, was coming. And then the whole reason that there's this power is the ability of Iran to hit refineries in the region.

They hit one on the day the start of this naval operation. But you have to push through that. The lesson in terms of American national security is that bravado alone, the tough talk, particularly of Defense Secretary Pete Higgseth, and air power alone will not defeat America's enemies. You cannot wage war in this tough talk, and I've said it many times. And I don't want a ground invasion. I don't want that.

But don't go to war unless you're ready to, use all the elements of military power that you have. And lastly, as you, there, again, Secretary Higseh is asking for $1.5 trillion in spending. And you mentioned cheap ways that the Iranians are pushing back with terror cells and these kind of things. The asymmetric warfare, the Shaheed drone, is more effective than these multi-million dollar weapons systems that the U.S. has. There's a Washington Post reporting, some CNN reporting about Iran hitting more than 250 targets on American military bases across the region. The Shaheed drones are getting through.

They cost a fraction of American military. So this huge spending on expensive razzled-dazzle systems doesn't protect the country. It's not necessarily the best way to protect the country. And I don't think, at least Defense Secretary Higgs has been honest for the country, he has not admitted that this much damage has been done to all these bases. MS now senior national security reporter David Rode

and former spokesperson for the U.S. mission to the United Nations. Cigar Shamali, thank you both very much. New polling by the University of Houston's Hobby School of Public Affairs shows Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leading incumbent Senator John Cornyn by a narrow three percentage points in the state's Republican Senate runoff. That's essentially within the poll's margin of error. Neither had secured a majority of the vote in the March primary election. The runoff is on May 26.

It's so interesting, by the way, the president, Trump has stayed out of this race because he was reported that he was going to make an endorsement. He has pledged to make an endorsement. He hasn't. Crickets. And I think it's because he's, first, frankly, I think he's unclear he's going to win. He doesn't want to be a second of his backing a loser. But it would be another test of his influence in the GOP.

And it's a seat in Texas far more vulnerable than it's been in a long time for a problem. Interesting. Meanwhile, the rising cost of gas and soaring electric bills could open the door for a Democrat in the Texas governor's mansion for the first time in more than 30 years. as the party's nominee in the race to oust Republican, Greg Abbott, argues Texans are paying the price under GOP leadership. And Texas Democratic gubernatorial nominee, State Representative Gina Hinojosa, joins us now. It's great to have you on the show. Great to be here.

Okay, flipping Texas. You say timing is everything. That's right. So why is this the moment for your campaign? What we are seeing across Texas is something is happening. happening. Last week alone, we flipped the mayor's seat in Paraland, a suburb outside of Houston, Arlington as well. Before that, we know about Tarrant County, the most Republican county in the country swung 31 points to elect a Democrat. Happened in Leander outside of Austin. So this is

happening organically throughout Texas. People want change, and they're showing up and voting for it. So we just sort of said about the Senate race, that Texas has long been the white whale for Democrats. There's some confidence there. And in your race as well, polling has you down a couple of points within the margin of error, more or less. I'm curious in particular two things. One would be, what's the issue that voters are telling you most that they're concerned about? But secondly, so much was made in 2024 about the inroads that Republicans, particularly President Trump, made among Latino voters.

That's obviously a huge key voting block in Texas. What are you seeing there? Right. So people want to talk about how everything is too expensive. And in Texas, people are struggling mightily. We have the most people being disconnected from their electricity of any other state. We have the most people without health insurance, the most children without health insurance. We have the most bankruptcies of any state.

So, yes, Texans are hurting. And they know Greg Abbott's been in charge for way too long, 12 years. They lay the blame at his feet. When it comes to the Latino, though, you're absolutely right. We lost Latinos last election. cycle in Texas. I'm from the Rio Grande Valley. And the real Grand Valley went Trump last election cycle. What we are seeing is Latinos are back in a big way. We launched this campaign in Brownsville, Texas, where I grew up. We got 70% of the vote in the primary despite having eight opponents.

Latinos are excited about this candidacy, and we're not taking them for granted. Yeah, it's interesting. The health insurance that you brought up, talk of more and more people, opting not to have health insurance because they can't afforded, affordability, affordability. So Jim Vandahai, let's go to the CEO of Axis. Jim, what do you think is happening in the state of Texas? And you can take the next question for the candidate. Yeah, I mean, I think what's happening is true. There are definitely signs that Democrats are having some success in areas that they haven't. It always strikes me as this beautiful mirage for Democrats. It looks like it could be real. And then it turns out not to be real.

And I would love for you to just to reverse engineer that. Like what is it about Democrats who, despite Trump's unpopularity, continue to be as a brand, like, quite unpopular and quite unpopular in your state? Like, what is it that you think Democrats got wrong that you need to start getting right? Right. Well, timing is everything in politics. And what I know is that last election cycle was a bad time for Democrats across the country, really, with what happened at the top of the ticket by. stepping down, comma going running at the last minute, didn't inspire confidence. Democrats all across the country were punished in Texas too. Year before that, we had Biden in the White House.

Historically, the party in the White House loses ground in the midterm election. It happened in Texas, too. Before that, we had the pandemic. Before that, we had 2018, the midterm election with Trump in the White House, just like we have in 2026. Democrats actually swept in Texas in a big way. We picked up 12 seats in the Texas House. We might have been able to flip the Texas House, but we weren't ready. We weren't invested. We didn't have a strategy. We are ready this election cycle.

We have been invested with Democrats running for the first time, really ever in every congressional seat, Senate seat, House seat. And it's showing in the primary turnout, Democrats actually overperformed Republicans in turnout, which hasn't happened in a long long. time. So this year is different. It's not because of just charismatic candidates like we've had in the past. It is because we are seeing it happen in real time on the ground. We know it's real. So you're saying your chances are good. A Democratic nominee for governor of Texas, state representative Gina Hinojosa. Thank you so much for coming on the show this morning. My pleasure. We appreciate it. The Trump administration is reportedly shutting down federal efforts to monitor allegations of abuse at immigrant detention.

centers across the country that as the deaths at the facilities continue to rise. Specifically, HuffPost reported on an internal email indicating the Department of Homeland Security is closing an office tasked with investigating claims of abuse at such facilities. MS now has not independently seen that internal email. The report reveals that the Trump administration blamed congressional budgeting for the office's closure. In a statement to Huff Post, a DHA agency spokesperson wrote, quote, DHS did not shut down the office of immigration detention ombudsman. Congress did. The House passed the DHS appropriations bill without objection, and it was signed into law last week. Huff Post reports that as of earlier this year, a record 73,000 people were being held.

in immigration detention centers. Last year, more than 30 people died in ICE custody, making it the deadliest year for ICE detainees since 2004. And so far this year, ICE has reported 18 deaths in custody, marking an even deadlier pace so far. And Jonathan, just briefly, it's very hard to get information from inside these detention centers, which they continue. to build. I mean, it's unspeakable. The horrors that are coming out, the stories that are coming out of these detention

centers. Yeah, I mean, members of Congress have denied access. Watchdog groups have not been permitted to go inside. And yes, the Trump administration has, in some ways, taking its foot off the gas in terms of public displays of deportations, but these facilities still exist. They're still being built. DHS has a more or less unlimited

budget. This is something that is faded from the headlines, but it's still So they can't claim the closing of the office is a budget issue since DHS and ICE, they seem to have all the money compared to others. Up next, we'll speak with a reporter from ProPublica, who is out with a new report on the harm done to children by the Trump administration's deportation campaign. We'll be right back. Welcome back, an eye-opening new report just released by ProPublica is shutting light on the Trump administration's deportation campaign. against undocumented immigrants and its harm to scores of children. Specifically, the report details federal agents' use of tear gas and pepper spray against kids in cars at home and walking to school,

leaving them wheezing, coughing, and struggling to breathe, let alone traumatized. Joining us now, one of the co-authors of that piece, pro-public reporter Lisa Song, MS now, contributor Mike Barnacle, joins the table as well. So, Lisa, tell us, first of all, what you found in your reporting about how widespread this is and actually what is happening to these children. Yeah, we were able to document at least 79 children who have been hurt as a result of tear gas and pepper spray used during these mass deportation campaigns. And we're talking about federal immigration agents who deployed these weapons. So your team reached out to DHS for reaction on this, and you include that in your piece. I'll include it as well.

And this is what they say. The Department of Homeland Security has repeatedly defended its use of the chemicals, asserting its agents aren't to blame. The fault, a spokesperson said, lies with agitators in the crowds and parents who put their children in harm's way. And in many of the cases where children were harmed, a DHA spokesperson said, the officers were justified in using tear gas or pepper spray. But the agency did not address how the weapons affected bystanders, including children. DHS does not target children. The agency said in a written statement, so no responsibility taken by DHS.

No, none. And to continue our conversation from a moment ago, though these stories have slipped from the headlines, these things are still happening. And we know that DHS could ramp up the sort of activity at any time. They have more or less an unlimited budget to do so. So Lisa, and more of these videos can be found on the ProPublica's website if people want to take a look. I encourage that they do. But just explain to us, remind people just how harmful these chemicals are and the impact they would have on children's health. Yeah. So I think sometimes when people hear tear gas, they might think, oh, it's not a big deal. Your eyes may water. But actually, these chemicals are toxic. Tear gas and pepper spray were designed.

specifically to induce intense pain. And they were made to incapacitate adults. And so when you're hit with tear gas or pepper spray, it feels like your skin is on fire. It becomes very hard to breathe. Your throat feels like it's burning, and you've got tears coming down your face the entire time. And so the problem is children are extra vulnerable

to these health problems. And children actually breathe more quickly than adults do, and they're smaller. So when there's more contamination in the air, they're breathing in more of it relative to their body weight. And that's one of the main reasons why it's so harmful to kids.

Mike Barnacle will take the next question, but first I just want to confirm. These videos you can see on the ProPublica website, just showing a few of them here. But if you could just tell us about what we see on these videos that you have uncovered, because it includes not just the children

being pepper sprayed and hurt, but there's a reaction that happens from the ICE agents and those who are spraying it. What do you guys hear when you watch it? Well, some of the videos we've gotten as a body cam footage from lawsuits, and one of them in the Chicago area shows an agent, among other agents, spraying pepper spray or tear gas into a crowd of protesters,

apparently without provocation. And at one point on the body cam footage, you can hear the agent saying, Hell yeah. And then he says it again with a swear word. And then he also says, woo. So it just feels like he is doing this with such ease. Right. And by the time he did it, the street was already covered in white smoke because they use so much tear gas. So, Mike, I mean, it's just, it's like, you feel like there's a culture here when you have a bunch of very armed ice agents, as we have covered repeatedly on this show,

many of them not trained very well, not very smart, walking in front of cars, shooting people randomly, and now spraying crowds that have already been pushed back or that are not coming forward and celebrating,

spraying a chemical in the faces of other human beings, thinking that's a cool thing. Just want to put a frame around that, that the culture of ice is truly like a, against what law enforcement is all about. Well, it's not law.

And I've heard reports of people calling 911 because ISIS after them and is coming after them in a criminal way. Well, let's separate law enforcement, legitimate law enforcement, city police departments. Absolutely separate. From what we're talking about here

and what we're seeing on your screen. It's basically a poorly trained paramilitary outfit. That's what it is. And the absurdity of DHS is just in their pronouncements that DHS does not target children. Look at these scenes. Look at how tear gas, no matter what you fire from a tear gas gun, envelops a whole neighborhood, drifts down a street.

A kid could be going to school half a block or a block away from all of this tear gas, and he's going, he or she is going to inhale that. So what do we do about that? Yeah, I mean, that's what we found, is that so many of these kids were just at home. They were living their normal lives when tear gas drifted in from the street. And even with all the doors and windows of their homes closed, even in cases when parents stuffed towels under the door to try to keep the gas out,

it still got in and made the kids sick. It made them cough. It made them wheeze and gas for air. How long did they sick? So it depends on how much tear gas there is in the air and the age of the child and some other factors. But sometimes the effects last for minutes, sometimes for hours. It can linger for days. And one of the problem is we don't really know what it might do to children in the long term.

There really aren't any studies on long-term effects of tear gas on children. So I just want to go to Jim Van der Heye for some analysis here because we've been showing a lot of very extreme polling results on the president's job approval ratings. And I'm wondering how much you think ICE activity impacts this as well. I mean, over the past two years, we've seen traumatizing. cities. We've seen people shot in the streets. We've seen detention centers being built and almost some call them concentration camps to the point where you don't have any access to the people inside and you hear horror stories. And there are children in these detention centers. Children not going to school. Children not getting the care they need. Detaining the detainment of

U.S. citizens by mistake. People who have served our country. People who even hardcore Republicans would say are good, hardworking members of our society. It has been a horror show to watch what ICE has done across this country. And I wonder if you think that will play a role in the midterms. Yeah, two quick points. One, for viewers who don't know what ProPublica is, it's really a national service. It's a not-for-profit that does these deep investigatory pieces that are really expensive that most news organizations might not have the resources to be able to do. So one, I just want to commend the work that they do. It is a nonpartisan outlet, and they've done a lot of very important public service acts to basically reveal things that should be revealed.

In this case, I think the polling and I think the anecdotal evidence is crystal clear on this. Most Americans want the borders tightened. They don't want people coming here illegally. Most people want people who are here who are clear criminals. They want them brought to justice and removed from the country. country. But in doing that and in enforcing immigration laws, which most people want to do, I don't know of anybody who's saying, hell, yes, let's go put poorly or undertrained people into a tense situation for a tense mission and not expect that you're going to have what we're

talking about here for the last 10 minutes. People don't like that. I'd like to think that most of these ICE officers and people who are being trained don't like it. They're put in a really difficult situation. And if you're not trained to deal with a difficult situation properly, bad things happen, including to children. And so, yes, I'm sure some of these are what the administration says that parents might be putting their children in a bad situation themselves, but a lot of it's not. And I think that over time, people are going to come to their senses and say, listen, for once and for all, we've got to lock down the border, we've got to enforce the laws that we have, and we've got to figure out a way to move past this issue that has

bedeviled us now for 20 years. And I think there's a national consensus starting to form around it. I just like to think that most people have a good heart, even the people who get tossed into these situations, and that over time, better angels will prevail because people see stuff like this. Yeah, well, I'm also, by the way, I'm sure there are a lot of ICE agents out there going, this is not worth the $50,000 bonus. I mean, it might have looked good at first, and then they're quite frankly, hated by everybody that they confront in the streets of America's cities. It's not a good experience for them, but it's also a culture that's being developed and promulgated by Stephen Miller and Tom Homan. And they, the approach, the mass deportations that Donald Trump

promised during the campaign, mass deportations like you've never seen before, that promise has been followed through on, but I don't think people envisioned kidnappings and traumatizing situations like ICE agents breaking through car windows and dragging people out of cars or dragging fathers and mothers out of their homes, totally disregarding the rights of anybody, anybody who is on American soil. I mean, this goes against our values on every level. They've pulled back for publicity reasons, and yet still, a lot of this is still happening. And I keep coming back to the idea. Lisa just said that we don't know if there isn't research as the impact of tear gas on children. That's because children aren't supposed to be tear gas.

They're not supposed to be tear gas. We really appreciate your reporting. CEO, co-founder of Axis, Jim Vandahai. Thanks for being on this morning. And pro-Publica reporter, Lisa Song, thank you so much for your investigation. The new piece, is available online right now with video. It is worth taking a look.