Morning Wire - 2024 Presidential Poll & Oregon’s Adoption Policies | 4.24.23

Episode Date: April 24, 2023

Polling of Democratic voters show they’d prefer a different candidate as the President gets ready to announce a second bid for the White House, the U.S. Embassy in Sudan is evacuated by special forces as violence in the country continues, and a federal adoption case out of Oregon pits gender identity against religious freedom. Get the facts first with Morning Wire.  Black Rifle Coffee: Get 10% off your first order or Coffee Club subscription with code WIRE: https://www.blackriflecoffee.com/ Cynch: Download the Cynch app and get your first tank exchange for just $10 with promo code WIRE. Visit http://cynch.com/offer for details. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

This episode is brought to you by Black Rifle Coffee. Start your morning with America's Coffee from black rifle coffee.com. President Biden is expected to announce his campaign to run again for president as early as this week. But the expected announcement comes amid significant headwinds, including ominous polling among Democrat voters, and a troubling report about the growing terror threat in Afghanistan. I'm Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley with Georgia Howell. It's Monday, April 24th, and this is Morning Wire. The U.S. Embassy and Sudan is evacuated by special forces as violence between two Sudanese militant groups intensifies.

How many Americans remain in the war-torn country, and is there a plan to get them out? And a federal adoption case out of Oregon has gained national attention, as it pits gender identity policies against religious freedom. Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know. Hey, guys, producer Brandon here, why settle for a mediocre cup of coffee? when you can indulge in the rich, satisfying flavors of Black Rifle Coffee. Not sure which blend to try first? Well, their complete Mission Fuel Kit coffee sampler gives you a taste of the entire spectrum

of Black Rifle Coffee's flavor profiles. The only hard part is picking a favorite. Go to Black RifleCoffee.com and use promo code Wire for 10% off your purchase. That's Black Rifle Coffee.com promo code Wire. Black Rifle Coffee, America's Coffee. As President Biden nears the expected launch of his reelection bid, new polling shows a number of Democrats say they'd consider supporting a Republican candidate in 2024. The news comes as the president faces a growing number of

foreign and domestic headwinds. Here to discuss the president's expected announcement and the obstacles he's facing as Daily Wire senior editor, Cabot Phillips. Hey, Cabot. So first, you've been closely tracking the numbers on President Biden's reelection bid. What are we saying now? Well, first, there are rumblings that Biden will launch his 2024 run as early as tomorrow. But that news comes as the president remains deeply unpopular among voters, including those in his own party. A number of polls show the majority of Democrats now want someone else to top the ticket in 2024. And a new poll from the Associated Press this weekend showed just 26% of Americans overall want him to seek a second term, and that includes just 47% of Democrats. Those numbers

within a presidential party are almost unheard of in modern presidential politics. But a new poll released this weekend by NBC News and heart research and public opinion strategies shows perhaps the most concerning trend yet for Biden. When asked who they'd support in 20, 24, 47% of Americans say that they'll vote for a Republican, while just 41% say Biden. And if you look at the all-important enthusiasm metric, which is helpful in predicting voter turnout, the NBC poll found that just 21% of Americans say they'll, quote, definitely vote for Biden, while nearly double 39% say that they'll, quote, definitely vote for a Republican candidate. Yeah, a notable gap there. So that's a generic candidate matchup.

What did those numbers look like when you get specific about the Republican candidate? it. Yeah, that part's interesting. Despite Biden's overall polling struggles, he's still performing relatively well in a hypothetical head-to-head with former President Trump. A Quinnipiac poll released this month shows Biden beating Trump nationwide 49 to 45 and also in key battleground states. He's typically holding a slight advantage there. One thing that seems clear, though, is that a big part of Biden's success has less to do with the president himself and more to do with Trump, whose favorability rating among voters is often lower than Biden. Most polls show him in the high 30s, or low 40s nationwide.

And another national survey from NBC found that 60% of Americans say they do not want Trump to run again. So a mixed bag for Trump when it comes to polling. All right, so that's Trump. What do we see when other candidates are on the ballot? Well, because it's still so early, the only other candidate we really have much data on is Florida governor Ron DeSantis, who does typically outperform Trump when matched up head-to-head against Biden. Across the last month, every national poll has shown him with a lead anywhere from two to eight points. And we see similar trends in battleground states.

According to public opinion strategies, while Trump trails Biden by one, two, and four points in Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, DeSantis leads Biden in each of those states by six, two, and three points, respectively. DeSantis supporters have been quick to tout those numbers and point out that similar trends are seen in other key battleground states. Now, President Biden has faced a number of political headwins at home and abroad over the last few months.

How much of a factor has that played into his poor polling numbers? Yeah, that steady trickle of negative stories has undoubtedly played a role in Biden's struggles. We've talked a good bit about how the border crisis and inflation have crushed his approval ratings on the economy and immigration. But a number of recent stories have exacerbated that trend further. For example, over the weekend, it was revealed that included among the trove of confidential documents in last month's Pentagon leaks was a report showing the disastrous consequences of President Biden's botched withdrawal from Afghanistan. Those documents show ISIS has begun planning and preparing for over a dozen attacks. on embassies, churches, sporting events, and business centers worldwide. The documents say the newfound lack of, quote, competent security services in the country

has, quote, minimized disruption opportunities for the terror group and essentially allowed them to operate with little resistance. The Biden administration refused to comment on the veracity of the documents, but they'll do little to help the president's standing on foreign policy, where he's already 15 points underwater in national polling. At the 2024 race heats up, you can certainly expect to hear Republicans point out that according to the Pentagon, President Bynes, Afghanistan withdrawal breathed new life into ISIS. Well, foreign policy will certainly be a major topic for the GOP. Kappa, thanks for reporting.

Any time. That was Daily Wire's senior editor, Cabot Phillips. Coming up, Sudan descends into civil war. Summer is almost here, and that means grilling season is coming. When was the last time you checked your propane tank levels? No worries, our friends at Cinch delivered propane grill tanks right to your door in four easy steps. Just choose a date and they'll exchange any brand. No long-term commitment or subscription is required.

Plus, delivery can be completely contactless. Go online to cinch.com, that's c-y-n-c-ch.com or download the cinch app to order. Use promo code wire to get your first tank exchange for just $10. Visit cinch.com slash offer for details. U.S. Special Forces evacuated the American Embassy in Sudan on Sunday as a violent power struggle between rival militant factions stretches into its second week. According to the U.S. State Department, as many as 16. thousand Americans are still inside the war-torn nation.

Joining us with the details is Daily Wire reporter Tim Pierce. So, Tim, give us some background on what's happening in Sudan. Hey, Georgia. The violence began on April 15th when rival generals Abdel Fata al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan de Gallo failed to come to terms in a deal to unify their military commands. Al-Burhan controls the official Sudanese military, while General Hamdan de Gallo controls a rival paramilitary group called the Rapid Support Forces, which was formed to suppress rebels and the Sudanese region of Darfur. Both groups cooperated to Al-Sudan's previous dictator Omar al-Bashir in

2019 and promised to transition Sudan's government into democracy with free elections. But both groups worked together again to stage a military coup in 2021 to postpone those elections, which were pushed back to July of 2023. As of now, it seems like they'll be postponed indefinitely. As part of that deal, the RSF was supposed to surrender and integrate into the official military, but that didn't happen. Now, is the violence fairly localized? And if so, where is it and how is it affecting civilians? Much of the fighting has gone on right in the capital of Khartoum, although the violence has spread across the country.

Here's how Saddam's former Prime Minister Miriam Almadi described the streets of Khartoum in an interview with CBS. In several parts of the Khartoum of the capital, there are rotting bodies of our use in the streets, some of them being eaten by the dogs. And no one is safe in Khartoum. Estimus vary, but everyone agrees that at a minimum, hundreds of people have been killed in the last week and thousands have been injured, including at least three international aid workers. While the U.S. government isn't actively evacuating American citizens, it has advised all Americans not to travel to Sudan and is encouraging everyone who can to leave. Now, John mentioned at the top of the segment that there are about 16,000 Americans in Sudan. What's the plan to get them out?

There isn't one. U.S. Special Forces were able to evacuate the embassy and Khartoum over the weekend, but the State Department, is holding off on broader evacuations because the region is too unstable. The State Department also isn't sure how many Americans are in Sudan at the moment. The 16,000 number is a rough estimate based on registrations at the embassy, but not all Americans register when they exit and leave the country. The State Department says it's been in contact with hundreds of private American citizens in Sudan. Here's State Department Deputy spokesman Vedant Patel. We have been clear-eyed about how American citizens should not travel to Sudan for months now. We have communicated to American citizens in the country

about safety and security measures and precautions that they can take. Now, how is this expected to affect the region overall? Well, the Horn of Africa wasn't exactly a bastion of stability to begin with. Sudan had been embroiled in a variety of ethnic and religious internal conflicts for decades. The country was designated as a state sponsor of terror by the U.S. the 1990s due to its support for al-Qaeda, and its former dictator, Al-Bashir, was the first sitting head of state to be indicted by the international criminal court on charges of genocide and crimes against humanity for alleged atrocities committed in Darfur.

That said, if the violence continues, it's likely that it could reignite those conflicts and turn Sudan into a safe haven for terror again. The fighting has already spread to neighboring Ethiopia, which is coming out the heels of its own civil war. It's also important to note that local droughts and international supply chain issues have caused hunger and food insecurity in the Horn of Africa. It's estimated that tens of millions of people are facing acute hunger, including over 15 million Sudanese. The UN World Food Program suspended its operations in Sudan after three of its aid workers were killed. And if the violence spreads to other

nations, it could disrupt humanitarian aid as well, putting millions at risk of famine or even starvation. All right. Well, Tim, thanks so much for reporting. That was Daily Wire reporter Tim Pierce. A case out of Oregon could have major implications for religious freedom nationwide. A single mother of five has filed a federal lawsuit against the state of Oregon after her adoption application was denied for expressing disagreement with the state's LGBT policies. Here to discuss the lawsuit is Daily Wire Reporter Amanda Presta Giacomo. Hey, Amanda. So give us a little background here. What can you tell us about the plaintiff in this case and what preceded the suit? Well, the plaintiff in this case is a woman named Jessica Bates, a single mother of five. She lost her husband six years ago in a car accident.

Bates says she felt compelled to adopt about a year ago after hearing a story of a man who was adopted from the foster care system as a child. She was months into the process and had undergone some training when she noticed the emphasis on LGBT policies, specifically that she must respect, accept, and support the gender identity of any child that could be placed in her home. When she notified the state that she couldn't comply with that policy, her application was put on hold. And then two months later, she was notified that her application had been denied. And now represented by Legal Group Alliance Defending Freedom, Bates is suing the state to remove this policy so she and other people of faith can be included in the adoption process. Yeah, let's get into that lawsuit. ADF argues this policy is unconstitutional. Tell us about that. Right. I spoke directly to ADF Legal Counsel, Johannes Woodman Delphonsey, about this. And he said this is a clear violation of the First Amendment in multiple respects.

looking at third point to freedom of speech and then also violates her free exercise. We're going the chance of ever having even the opportunity. And what is Oregon's argument for this policy? Has the Department of Human Services responded to this lawsuit? Well, I reached out to the Department for comment and didn't hear back, but DHS has released a general statement sticking by their policy, saying the Child Welfare Division, and I'm quoting here, stand in support of transgender, non-binary, gender fluid, and other LGBTQIA2S plus children.

The department also claimed that gender diverse people are under attack in the U.S., and they're committed to, quote, creating a safe and supportive environment for all children and young people, regardless of their gender identity. I relayed that statement to Widmoam-Dolfanze, and here's how he responded. Well, the problem is so that I need. I believe there's Muslims and people of other faith. Now, is this situation isolated to Bates? Do we know if other people of faith have been hit with the same denial as she has in Oregon? And for that matter, is this happening in other states too? ADF says others in Oregon have reached out to them with similar stories. And as far as this happening in other states, there was actually a similar case in Washington State back in 2020. The judge in that case said the state wasn't allowed to discriminate against a caregiver applicant based on their religious beliefs. He said applicants could be asked questions surrounding LGBT. issues and their responses could be used to help match a child, but their faith-informed answers,

it couldn't be the sole reason to deny them an opportunity to take in a child. So not the sole reason. Right. Amanda, thanks for reporting. Thanks for having me. That was Daily Wire reporter, Amanda Presti Giacomo. That's all the time we've got this morning. Thanks for waking up with us.

We'll be back later this afternoon with more news you need to know.