Morning Wire - Battleground Updates & Hispanic GOP Vote | 11.7.22

Episode Date: November 7, 2022

Where the battleground races stand on the eve of the election, an increasing number of Hispanics are backing Republicans, and the GOP’s most diverse group of candidates yet. Get the facts first on Morning Wire. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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I just love my job. Get tickets now. The Devil Wears Prada 2 in theaters May 1st, directed by David Frankel. It's the eve of the midterm election. When Americans will decide who controls Congress and the fate of President Biden's agenda. We discuss the latest developments in the battleground states and where the key races stand. I'm Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Monday, November 7th, and this is Morning Wire.

Are Democrats losing Hispanics? The Democrats are in serious trouble if the Republicans reach the 40th percentile with Latino voters. Their coalition is just not sustainable. We look at the data that has some Democrat pollsters sounding the alarm. And the current slate of Republican congressional candidates is the most diverse the party has ever run. We discuss the new look GOP and how shifting support among key demographics could impact the election. Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know.

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Washington and could define the first term of President Biden. Here to give us a rundown of all the action before polls closed tomorrow, evening is Daily Wire Senior Editor Cabot Phillips. Cabot, we've finally made it. We are here. Where do things stand now? Well, Republicans still have the momentum, according to the polls, and it appears almost certain that they will come out Tuesday with control of the House.

But make no mistake about it, the fate of the Senate is still a complete toss-up. We just don't know what's going to happen there. Yeah, let's start with those races. First in Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Federman had some big guests in town, correct? He did. After opening up with a huge lead over Republican Dr. Oz, Fetterman faltered throughout October, giving up ground in basically every poll and then suffering a major hit after that disastrous debate performance on October 25th. Now, Democrats responded this week by holding a major rally Saturday night in Philadelphia that featured former President Obama as well as President Biden.

And it's not that surprising that Obama was there. He still is the most popular Democrat in the country. But it was a surprise to see Biden there. Remember, he's really avoided the campaign trail in large part due to his low approval ratings in sort. swing states, and Republicans have actually been trying to tie him to Democrat midterm candidates. President Trump was also there. Remember, he really helped push Dr. Oz over the finish line with his endorsement during the primary, and they held a rally together on Saturday. The two rallies were kind of a microcosm of the national message from each party. Obama and the Democrat said that

the election was about the preservation of democracy itself, while Trump and Republicans said that it was about fixing a failing economy. Oz has been up by two in the last three polls, including from our partners at Trafalgar, but it's still going to be an incredibly tight race come Tuesday. Let's go now to Georgia, another close race. What's the latest there? Well, the polls there are still all over the place. The latest that we have shows Walker up four, but just last week, there was another that had Warnock up six, and then the day before that we saw an exact tie. So it's really hard to tell who actually has the upper hand. One thing

we do know, though, is that early voter turnout in Georgia is through the roof, setting all-time records with 49% of votes cast coming from registered Democrats and 42% coming from Republicans. That seven point margin is a smaller lead than Democrats had back in 2020. But keep in mind, there's a good chance we will not know the winner of this race until December 6th. That's because if neither candidate gets 50% on Tuesday, the top two will head to a runoff four weeks from now. So keep an eye on that 50% number tomorrow night. And so far we haven't seen many polls that show either of them over 50%. So there's a good chance that might happen. Right. We'll get to one more Senate race. What's going on in Arizona?

Yeah, this is yet another race where Republicans had been all but written off over the summer, but now appears to be a legitimate toss-up. Incumbent Democrat Senator Mark Kelly has out-fundraised Republican Blake Masters $20 million to $12 million. And he also came in with a massive name recognition advantage. But that has not really mattered. Masters closed the gap over the summer, in part because the popularity of Republican gubernatorial nominee Kerry Lake. and now the polls show a dead heat. Okay, now to the governor's race everyone is talking about.

Tell us about New York. Well, this is another race where polls are really all over the place still. Our partners at Trafalgar have it all tied up, while others have the Democrat Kathy Hochel with as much as a nine-point lead. But one thing is certain, Democrats are clearly very nervous about how close the race has become. And you can kind of tell by who they're bringing in to help. This week, former President Bill Clinton,

who is still popular with a lot of Democrat voters in New York, held a rally for Hokel. That's not really the sort of thing you'd expect to see in a deep blue state that went for Biden by 23 points. Yeah, not at all. Yeah, Hockel was also part of a viral moment over the weekend when MSNBC host Stephanie Ruhl laid into her on crime in New York City. Here's the problem.

We don't feel safe. You might be working closely with Mayor Adams. You may have spent a whole lot of money, but I walk into my pharmacy and everything is on lockdown because of shoplifters. I'm not going in the subway. People don't feel safe in this town. So you may have done these things, but right now we're not feeling good.

We're worried we could be San Francisco. Some harsh words from an outlet typically viewed as a safe haven for Democrats. Definitely. Cabot, thanks for reporting. Anytime. That's Daily Wire senior editor Cabot Phillips, and we'll hear a lot more from him on Daily Wire's election night coverage. Coming up, the GOP is gaining ground among Hispanic voters.

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could have a devastating long-term effect on their electoral fortunes. Hispanics are increasingly backing the GOP. Joining us to discuss is John Carlo Sopo, political strategist and founder of Visto Media. John Carlo, thanks for coming on. So we've seen some polls showing that Democrats' margin among Latino voters has literally been cut in half over the past few years. Is that also what you've found? And if so, are you confident that that's a real effect?

Yeah, absolutely. So the Democrats won the Hispanic vote by 40 points in 2018, which is consistent with their historical average of winning the Hispanic vote by 36 points in midterm elections. And it's been a series of polls, not just mine, but from the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times and others showing that the Republicans have cut significantly into the Democrats' lead. Now, my poll was taken at the beginning of this month. What polls taken within the last week are showing, including a new one from the Wall Street Journal, is that the Democrats, have lost even more ground with Hispanics in recent weeks. Now, can Democrats afford to lose this many Latino voters? They cannot.

They start really losing ground in states like Nevada, New Mexico, Colorado, and others. And it just becomes completely unsustainable for them. A good reference point to this when we saw this happen was in 2004 with former president George Dilley Bush, where he carried the entire American Southwest and went on to be reelected and windy popular vote. Now, another thing that you dug into in your surveys is the different subgroups of Hispanics. What were some of the differences that you saw in the different demographics? We all know that Cubans tend to be the most conservative Latinos compared to, say, like, Mexicans or Puerto Ricans.

But there are even more differences beyond that. When you look at news language consumption, Hispanics who get their news in Spanish are far more liberal than those who get it in English. So among Hispanics who get their news in Spanish, the Democrats have a 40-point lead. Hispanics who get most of their news in English, that lead is only down to 13 points. And I think that's due to a variety of factors. Perhaps the most notable one is the two major Spanish networks, Univision and Telemundo, are incredibly liberal. It's like watching MSNBC in Spanish.

So I'm not surprised that their viewers tend to be more liberal. Now, what about the assimilation factor? I mean, if you're watching English language news, does that imply that you're more assimilated, perhaps second, third generation here in the U.S.? For sure. What it was very interesting, though, is that there's not much of a difference among foreign-born and U.S.-born Hispanics. The real difference is on whether the foreign-born Hispanics, if they are watching Spanish

television or English-language television. that's where you see the biggest differences in the voting patterns with Latinos. So what are some of the key races that you are going to have your eye on on election night with regard to the Latino vote? Sure. So we're watching Florida very closely. A Republican has not carried the statewide Latino vote in Florida for some time. And the polls indicate that Governor DeSantis is on track to win a majority of Hispanics. If he wins Miami-Dade County, that is lights. out at that moment for his Democratic opponent, Charlie Chris. I'm also paying very close attention to what's happening in South Texas. These very tight races with Cassie Garcia, Congresswoman Maida Flores, and Monica de la Cruz in the Rio Grande Valley. That's going to be a really interesting indicator

as to how much ground Republicans have made with Hispanic voters. All right. Well, John Carlo, thanks so much for coming on today. That was John Carlo Sopo, political strategist and founder of Vista Media. As the 2022 midterm cycle winds down this week, one phenomenon that has been widely noted is the rise of a much more diverse slate of Republican candidates than we've seen in the past. According to a New York Times report, there are 67 black, Latino, or Asian candidates seeking congressional seats in the Grand Old Party. This compared to about a dozen current sitting members of color. Here to discuss the sea change in the Republican Party as columnist David Marcus. Are Dave, how did we get here? How did we arrive at a GOP?

with so much diversity? Good morning. It's a great question and maybe the most important one in all of American politics just at the moment. There was a famous post-mortem done in 2012 after Mitt Romney lost to Barack Obama

in which most establishment Republicans called for outreach, specifically to the Hispanic community. At the time, they thought the way to do it was to soften language and positions on illegal immigrations in the border. That didn't happen because instead, we got Donald Trump, maybe the greatest border hawk of all time. He won the nomination in 2016.

What nobody saw coming was that Trump, notwithstanding this harsh rhetoric, would actually bring Hispanic voters into the party. Yeah, that's certainly surprised a lot of people. Who are some of the GOP candidates who represent this shift? And what are they saying specifically about the border? Well, the best examples are three literal wives of border agents running in typically blue districts in southern Texas. These are Irene, Armadieres, Jackson, Myra Flores, and Cassie Garcia. And look, they're running to secure the border, plain and simple. It's not identity politics. These voters, especially near the border towns, and I've interviewed them, they want a system that works, not utter chaos. And that Republican message is resonating.

Right. We just looked at polling that shows the GOP getting a lot more Hispanic support this year. Now, it's not just Hispanic votes being quartered by Republicans. We've also seen outreach to the Asian community, any impact there? Well, there seems to be. For example, there's a much tighter race than expected for a House seat in Rhode Island where Alan Fung is trying to pick up a blue district. We see some similar races elsewhere. Education is an issue where Republicans see an opening, especially in big cities

where Democrat efforts to diversify top public schools have a tendency to harm Asian students more than others. And that also comes with the backdrop of the Supreme Court, hearing a case on affirmative action. So conservative seeing an opening here, and there's been some success. How much of this growth within communities of color for Republicans is rooted in these sort of ethnic-specific issues as opposed to the broader message of both parties right now? I mean, that's fascinating. I mean, there's been a spate of articles about how Latino voters, for example, poll very much like the average voter. And when you look at polling of Democrats

writ large, whites with a college degree are by far. the most progressive cohort. There's been a basic assumption for a few decades now that voters of color go in for wokeness and far-left policies. That assumption is falling apart, and I think we can expect Democrats to have their own 2012-style post-mortem about the heavy losses they're taking in these demographic groups.

Now, one voting block where Democrats have held more of their advantage is with the black vote. Why is that so much steadier, and are Republicans making any inroads? Republicans have made some inroads, especially with black men, but yes, I mean, this is still the blue firewall. And look, not to beat a dead horse or donkey, as the case may be, but once again, on cultural issues like the trans issue and on kitchen table issues, today's Democrat Party, at least its institutional leaders and spokespeople, are so far left that they might start to leave a considerable number of black voters behind back in the center, open to filling in a bubble for a Republican. that would be huge. Indeed it would.

Thank you for joining us, David. That was Daily Wire contributor, David Marcus. Another story we're tracking this week. More than 39 million Americans had already voted in the midterm as of Sunday. That's according to the Associated Press. Thanks for waking up with us. We'll be back this afternoon with more news you need to know.