Morning Wire - Biden vs. Trump Rematch: State of the 2024 Race | 12.17.23

Episode Date: December 17, 2023

White House reporter Phil Wegmann joins Cabot Phillips to lay out the state of the 2024 presidential primary race. Can anyone unseat frontrunners Joe Biden and Donald Trump? Get the facts first on Morning Wire. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

With just weeks remaining until the first votes of the 2024 JOP primary race are cast in Iowa, the final stretch is upon us. Will President Trump maintain his historic lead or were one of his many challengers be able to step up before it's too late? On this Sunday edition of Morning Wire, we'll talk with a White House reporter about the state of the race, break down the latest polling data,

and lay out President Biden's reelection strategy. I'm Daily Wire's senior editor, Cabot Phillips. It's Sunday, December 17th, and this is Morningwire. In just a minute, we're going to hear from an expert who's been following the election very closely. But first, let's start with some context on where things stand. To this point, the story of the race has been the lack of a race, as Donald Trump has dominated in the polls all year.

He now sits around 60% nationally. But Florida's Ronda Santis and South Carolina's Nikki Haley are battling for second place, hoping to consolidate the non-Trump vote and take him down. There's also Vivek Ramoswamy and Chris Christie still hoping to make a splash in Iowa or New Hampshire. For more on the state of the race, we turn now to Philip Wegman, the White House reporter over Real Clear Politics. Philip, thanks a much for joining us. Thank you for having me.

All right, so we'll start with the Republican primary. Now, right now, there hasn't really been much of a race to this point as Trump continues to dominate in the polls. At this point, where we stand right now, what would it take for someone not named Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee? Maybe the second coming. I know I sound a little glib there, but there's some truth in kidding. Donald Trump leads the rest of the pack by 47 points in the real clear politics average. But more than that, he's leading President Biden by two points. That's something that has never happened before.

I remember in 2020, they were always close, but he never eclipsed him. So in order for Trump to lose, one of these candidates, one of these challengers would have to start pitching a perfect game and a perfect storm. You know, the DeSantis theory of the case seems to be that he makes Iowa, his blast Alamo and builds momentum from there. But, you know, he was billed as a conservative juggernaut. He's sadly been on sort of this glide path to the ground. Meanwhile, Nikki Haley, the former U.S. ambassador to the UN, she is getting a second look. But right now, none of these guys have been able to capture the moment and really build what it would take to take down not just a former

president, but also, you know, a cultural and political icon at the same time. Trump and importantly, his challengers are certainly watching the legal cases against him very closely. To that point, if one of these cases ultimately results in a conviction, what does that mean politically and also logistically for this race? Yeah, that's the question of every political reporter in Washington, D.C. right now, we're taking the primary schedule and we're overlaying it with President Trump's court dates. Right now, though, I think that what we will continue to see is this. phenomenon that began with the indictments. I remember speaking to Trump's pollster, a fellow named John McLaughlin, right before the New York indictment. And he told me, look, these indictments for now are helping us in the primary. And that's because Donald Trump understands that martyrdom is a powerful

political currency. He is dealing with Republican voters who, after the Russia gate saga, are really primed to dismiss any allegations against him. And so Trump is, been able to roll out this playbook where he says, they're not coming after me. In fact, the left is coming after you, but I'm just in the way. That's a potent argument. In terms of these cases, if he's actually convicted, that could change things. It could start selling some seeds of doubt in the minds of voters. Maybe they look at Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis for the general election. But it would come down to this question. Do those GOP voters love Trump more than they hate Biden and are they willing to risk it and vote for a convicted president and potentially get

four more years of a Democrat in the White House? I'm very curious to see what the answer will be. And don't forget, his first D.C. court date comes the day before Super Tuesday in March. Now, in past primaries, we have seen candidates drop out early if they don't make a splash in Iowa or New Hampshire. But with those cases pending, do you think some of Trump's challengers might stay in the race longer than usual, sort of hoping the election is shaken up by a potential conviction. Hope certainly springs eternal in the minds of all of these presidential candidates. You have to get in the headspace of these guys who are going to be putting aside their other professional aspirations, their family life. They're making so many sacrifices for this one thing that is

going to dominate their life for two, three years, that they're reluctant to give it up. But The math is pretty simple right now. If you look at both DeSantis and Haley, they are trailing Donald Trump by double digits. Something has to change very quickly. Perhaps it is the legal trouble of the president. Or perhaps it is his age. After all, Donald Trump is 77 years old. But right now, Trump is certainly in a position to regain the nomination. And he's running in some ways as an establishment candidate where you have these other challengers sort of fighting for a never-Trump vote or a Trump-sceptical vote, Trump has stepped in and enjoys the advantages almost of incumbency because he's a former president. But yet at the same time, Trump is also a cultural phenomenon and he is able to enjoy grassroots supports. These other candidates, they are going to have to look in the mirror and they're going to have to make some hard decisions. After Iowa, after New Hampshire, after South Carolina, certainly if they are losing by significant double digits, they might have hope, but their donors are going to stop

writing the checks. So we know that Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis are each hoping to consolidate the non-Trump vote, but from a number standpoint, are there enough non-Trump voters at this stage to even present a viable path to victory for them? Yeah, I think that the supporters of DeSantis and Haley, there is some overlap there, certainly, but the ambassador seems to be drawing from a different voter pool than DeSantis from Republicans who can't stand Trump from some moderates who are going to vote Republican. It's not clear that if one of them drops out, support would immediately flow to the other. And I think that that would be a pretty interesting exercise when we actually look at the demographics of voters. In order for them to be legitimate,

though, they have to put points on the board. There is no ribbon. There's no trophy for coming in second place. And right now, the theory of the case with DeSantis is that if he wins in Iowa, he can build momentum and stay competitive ahead of Super Tuesday. With Haley, she is sort of peaked later. And if you look at the real clear politics average, she is within the margin of error for second place. Her theory of the case is that she doesn't need to win in Iowa. She just needs to keep it close. She needs to keep it close in New Hampshire, where she picked up a significant endorsement from Governor Krista Nunu. And then if she makes it to South Carolina, then that's friendlier ground, and she can sort of springboard into Super Tuesday.

But, Kevin, you know this. We're talking about all of these if-then scenarios at a moment where Donald Trump has returned to the playbook that works, and he has been rewarded, at least in the polls, thus far. All right, let's get to the Democrat side. We've heard rumblings really all year now in Washington that President Biden could step down from the ticket by November. Publicly, though, Democrat lawmakers still seem to be standing by him, despite polls showing that the majority of Democrat voters want someone else.

But let's be real here. Is there any actual shot that Biden is not the Democrat nominee at this stage of the race? You know, I think that he is an undeniable fact that every morning President Biden walks into the Oval Office. He's the oldest president that we've ever had. The fellow is 81 years old. And certainly we wish him nothing but the best. There's a chance that father time could throw a wrench into things in terms of any type of

political coup. I don't think that there's either the appetite or infrastructure for some sort of deal to come together in a smoke-filled back room. Certainly, there were some rumors about California Governor Gavin Newsom. He was doing all sorts of things that you would expect from a presidential candidate, you know, making foreign trips, holding lavish fundraisers. But all of these Democrats, even if they're not completely satisfied with President Biden, even if they're really taking a deep dive into the cross tabs of polling and seeing how soft his support is. They're dealing with an emotional question. They do not want to reprise the rule of Senator Ted Kennedy, who softened up Jimmy Carter before he lost to Ronald Reagan. They don't want that on their conscience at a moment when Donald Trump,

who in their minds is an existential threat to democracy, is at the gates. And I think that if, you know, in my conversations with folks inside of Biden world, they are thrilled with the opportunity of running against Donald Trump a second time. That's when they think that they will codify all of their support. But outside of some unforeseen medical scenario, I think that Joe Biden certainly will be the Democratic nominee. You've been following all the polling very closely. What does the data say at this point on a hypothetical Trump Biden head-to-head in the general?

Right now, Trump leads Biden by two points in the Rio Claire politics average. that's something, again, that we did not see in 2020. And that reflects that this is going to be a street fight, that this is going to be an actual competition between the two of them. Again, think about that nature of the race. In 2020, all of us were watching this great experiment in democracy from, you know, our living room in our pajamas because we weren't able to go anywhere because the pandemic.

And Biden used that to his advantage. He was, you know, campaigning from Wilmore. He wasn't so much shaking hands, kissing babies like we've seen traditions. like we've seen traditionally. This time, without the pandemic, he would have to be on the campaign trail. It would be much more of a traditional contest. But I think that if you look at some of the other heads,

though, it's very interesting that while it's sort of a jump bowl between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, Nikki Haley, meanwhile, is leading Biden in the Rochlear Politics average by four points. She is able to sort of demonstrate that she could win over moderates, that she could win over independence.

That could be, though, sort of a sad dream for the ambassador, though, because, again, she has to get through a Republican primary. We'll end with third-party candidates who typically don't have much of an impact, but this year is different. RFK is polling around 20% nationally in some polls. What does his rise mean for this race, and which party do you think benefits more from his presence on the ticket? It is a difficult question to answer because we haven't actually seen anyone put voting.

votes and ballot boxes. There's some polling that indicates that RFK's candidacy would actually end up hurting Donald Trump more. I'm not certain yet about what Cornell West does to the dynamic of the race. But anytime a independent or Democratic voter is persuaded not to support the top of the ticket, that's going to hurt Biden in what could be a very close race. And I think that there is a larger question here when it comes to younger, more progressive voters. If you think about Joe Biden, yes, he has made common cause with progressives, but at his heart of hearts, this is a traditional big government Democrat. And what we've seen as a result of the Gaza crisis is that Biden world was caught completely by surprise by the disconnect between this old school Democrat and these

younger voters who see the world through a oppressed oppressor lens at a colonized. or colonized lens. The worry among the Biden campaign is not that suddenly Trump or maybe some of these third party candidates are going to make a play for these voters. The worry is that they stay home, and that eats at Biden's support. If it comes down to a very close contest like it did last time in some of these key states, well, then a dynamic like that could potentially shift the race. All right. We'll leave it there. Philip. We appreciate your time. Thanks for coming on. Thank you. That's Philip Wegman, White House report. at Real Clear Politics.

I'm Kaba Phillips, Senior Editor Daily Wire, and this has been a Sunday edition of Morning Wire.