Morning Wire - Charging Ahead: The Rise in Electric Vehicles in America | 10.1.23

Episode Date: October 1, 2023

The White House has set a goal of making electric vehicles 50% of new car sales by 2030 We explore the challenges of transitioning to electric vehicles and shed light on why Tesla remains the dominant force in the EV market. Get the facts first on Morning Wire. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

The Biden administration has gone all in on its push for electric vehicles with a goal of making EVs at least 50% of all new car sales by 2030. Generous subsidies and promises of building 500,000 charging stations across America's highways are all part of the overall plan. All told, my administration is investing more than $135 billion to advance America's electric vehicle future. But the limits and drawbacks of the new technology could delay those. ambitious goals. In this episode of Morning Wire, we examine the benefits and drawbacks of electric vehicles. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire editor-in-chief John Bickley. It's Sunday, October 1st, and this is Morning Wire. Joining us is Daily Wire Senior Editor, Cabot Phillips. So Cabot, President Biden has really made electric vehicles a core part of his climate agenda, setting some extremely ambitious benchmarks that would

really transform the auto industry. Tell us what he's shooting for. Yeah, there's a lot going on. here. So earlier this year, President Biden proposed a plan to ensure that by 2032, get this two-thirds of all new cars sold in the U.S. will be electric. For context, while EVs have become more popular in recent years, in 2022, they still only accounted for 6% of new car sales. So we're talking about a 10-fold increase here. They also want 25% of heavy trucks to be electric by 2032. At the moment, they count for just about 2% of sales. So ambitious goals to say the least. Right. The push comes in large part from Biden's. Environmental Protection Agency, which announced new emission standards earlier this year that would

limit the kinds of new car designs they would approve. While the EPA is technically barred from forcing automakers to sell electric vehicles, they are allowed to set limits on the amount of pollution generated by the total number of cars produced by a manufacturer. It's sort of a work around they're using to all but force automakers to phase out cars with a traditional combustion engine. So this would require a massive increase in the number of EVs on the market. Yeah, it would be a huge revolution in the industry. And what's the rationale for that? Is this all about carbon? Yeah, that is a big part of it. The Biden administration has made EVs a key component in combating what they call the climate crisis. The administration has made it abundantly clear that they

consider climate change in existential threat to the U.S., even more so than a potential nuclear war. To that end, the administration has spent hundreds of billions of dollars on green energy programs, significantly reduced the amount of federal land leased out for oil and gas production, and taking more than 100 regulatory actions to phase out current designs of dozens of everyday appliances. Those appliances range from everything from water heaters to light bulbs. But the push for EVs in particular has drawn a lot of attention just because of how greatly it would impact the auto industry and everyday drivers. All told, the White House claims their push for EVs will eliminate two years' worth of carbon emissions from all other sectors of the U.S. economy. So they're saying it's

going to offset a lot of other carbon emissions elsewhere. So how is that shift to EVs going to impact the auto industry or just drivers more broadly? Well, first, it's going to radically alter production lines and supply chains that have for decades been producing traditional combustion vehicles. That shift is almost certain to eliminate thousands of jobs as EVs require fewer workers to build. That's one of the reasons the auto workers union has refused to endorse President Biden, despite him appearing on the picket line this week.

They essentially view the EV push as an existential threat to their job security. For their part, automakers have largely gone along with the shift, though, promising to revolutionize their fleets as part of the broader commitment to combating climate change. But look, the reality is their hands are sort of being forced here by government regulation, and they're under clear financial pressure as well. Right. So let's get into that financial element. Yeah, it's an important one. So it's worth noting. This is hardly a voluntary embrace of EVs from the automakers. Much of the shift comes down to pressure from large investment firms like Vanguard, BlackRock, and State Street, which are the largest shareholders in Ford Motor Company and General Motors. That gives them

enormous leverage over how automakers operate, and they're evidently all on board with the push for EVs. That's in large part due to their commitment to ESG, which prioritizes investments in products and companies deemed pro-environment. So automakers know that to keep large investors happy, they've basically got to go along with the electric revolution. But beyond that, there's also significant pressure coming from state governments as well as federal. For example, California has announced a proposal to phase out all new sales of gas-powered vehicles, with a total ban coming into effect by 2035. Not only does California account for 12% of the American population, but it has a lot of sway over other states' environmental policies. Since that announcement last year from California,

several states have announced plans to follow their lead. Now, the workers have a reason to be somewhat concerned, but how is this expected to impact the bottom line for the automakers? Yeah, at the moment, that is the big issue. We're already seeing the financial ramifications of EVs, and they're not good for auto companies, right now at least. According to their own projections, earlier this year, Ford is expected to turn a profit this year overall, thanks to their gas-powered cars, but their line of EVs is expected to lose the company $4.5 billion this year. Those losses have led Ford to scale back some of their earlier EV plans and have led investors to question the company's EV prospects overall. Here's Ford's CEO Chris Farley on Fox

business, speaking frankly about the potential ceiling for EVs. Is Ford building electric vehicles because it wants to or it's being forced to? Do you think EVs are better than their internal combustion predecessors? For some customers, they are, but not for everyone. If you're pulling a fifth wheel in Wyoming, you probably don't want to own an electric vehicle. But if you have three cars in your household, then ones for, you know, short distances running around town or, you know, 100, 200-mile range, it's a better car. General Motors is in a similar spot. Their CEO said earlier this year that even with $2 billion in cost-cutting measures, they still are not going to turn a profit on EVs.

until at least 2025. And even then, the outlook is still uncertain. According to one analyst, quote, no U.S. automaker is making EVs profitably, aside from Tesla. So why is Tesla succeeding when all these other companies are failing? Right. And they're not just succeeding. Their Model Y is currently one of the world's best-selling cars.

Tesla sold more than 330,000 EVs in the first half of 2023. That's more than twice as many as their next four competitors combined. Now, to be fair, General Motors did quadruple their EV sales compared to the same period last year, while Tesla's sales increased by just 30%, but Tesla is undoubtedly still head and shoulders above everyone else. As to why they're so popular, some of it may be brand recognition. They really were the first meaningful EV company in the game, but a lot of their success is driven simply by quality.

Tesla's generally performed better than other EVs, and they're also often more affordable. The price of electric vehicles has long been a major barrier to entry for potential customers. At the moment, the average new EV costs almost 64,000. thousand dollars, while the average new gas powered car would set you back about 49,000. So price is obviously a barrier of entry for EV. What about functionality? So on that front, range is another big issue. In 2021, the median gas car could go 403 miles on a full tank, while the median EV could go just 234 miles on a full charge. That may be fine for most day-to-day travel, but for longer trips, it is a hassle. Filling up on gas might take a couple of

minutes, but even a lot of faster chargers for an EV usually take about 30 minutes. And those rapid charging stations are not evenly distributed throughout the country. It's worth noting. They're much more concentrated in affluent urban areas and a handful of more populous states like California, New York, Florida, and Texas. At the moment, there are about 50,000 public charging stations nationwide, which means a lot of areas are miles from the nearest hookup. I actually experienced this conundrum firsthand while renting a car a few months ago. I was pretty excited. I got upgraded to a Tesla for a drive from Texas to Oklahoma while renting. And the car was a ton of fun to drive at every bell and whistle you could need. But halfway through the trip, I got a blinking thing saying I had to

go 20 miles out of the way to one of the only charging stations in the area. And that tradeoff has kept many Americans from purchasing EVs, especially people living in more sparsely populated areas, like the one I was driving through. Right. Well, and in rural areas, people have to drive longer distances just to begin with. Right. And that means that rural areas and large swaths of many states are currently, quote, charging deserts where EV drivers could be stranded with no quick way of getting back on the road. Now, again, it's worth noting Tesla's generally go further on a single charge than other EVs in their price range.

And the company has also built a network of nearly 2,000 supercharging stations across the country. For now, that's a Tesla exclusive perk, though. Most EVs use different charging ports, so they can't use Tesla charging stations. So EVs still face some serious roadblocks. I see what you did there, Georgia. I like that roadblocks. But Tesla seems to be working through them better than any of its competitors. Yeah, Tesla really has been the industry leader for years,

and it seems to be the company best positioned to make widespread EV adoption possible, which it's worth pointing out is a little awkward because Tesla's founder and CEO Elon Musk has been an outspoken critic of the Biden administration on everything from social policy to the war in Ukraine. Right. And that friction could be playing a role in how the Biden administration treats Tesla compared to other EV companies. On several occasions, the White House has gone out of its way to snub Tesla while promoting other EVs. For example, last month, Energy Secretary Jennifer Granul, took a caravan of electric cars on a four-day trip across the southern United States between Charlotte and Memphis with the hope of ginning up support for EVs. Her combo included a Chevy Bolt, a Ford F-150 Lightning, and a Cadillac lyric, but notably no Tesla, despite being the best-selling EV producer by a long shot.

So a publicity sent to sell the public on EVs that did. didn't include the model that most people actually want. Right. And the trip did end up being a bit of a publicity nightmare. While it was meant to highlight the progress made on EVs, it actually ended up advertising many of their problems. There were broken chargers, slow charge times, and long lines. At points, the trip devolved into a comedy of errors. There's no other way of putting it. In one moment that went viral online, the secretary's convoy had the cops called on them after her staff blocked a charging station so that she would not have to wait in line upon arriving. Have a listen to that call.

Columbia County 911. Hi, I'm calling because I'm in the Grosetown Walmart at the charging station, and there's literally a non-electric car that is taking up a space who says they're holding the space for somebody else, and it's holding up a whole bunch of people who need to charge their cars. Oof. So quick back story there. While on their way to a fast charging station in a suburb outside of Augusta, Georgia,

Secretary Granald's team realized that there weren't enough chargers to go around. Of the fourth station, one was broken and two were occupied, so they sent a gas vehicle ahead to hold the remaining spots until she arrived, which left other would-be customers to wait on empty. That prompted anger from a number of drivers, including one woman with a small child in her car who called the police. The secretary ultimately broke her convoy up and sent some vehicles to slower chargers, which defused the situation,

but even sympathetic journalists embedded in the convoy stressed that it was a bad look. So back to the original goal of increasing EV usage, what steps is the Biden administration taking to, address all those barriers? So at the moment, the Biden administration has committed billions of dollars to subsidize 500,000 new fast charging stations across the U.S. Industry experts say, though, that in order to support their target for eB sales, that network would actually need more than a million such stations. So they're making progress, but they're still nowhere near where they need to be for widespread adoption. The White House is also offering major tax breaks for folks who purchase EVs, in some cases offering up to

$7,500 to offset the cost of a new car. But the problem there is that a lot of Americans simply don't seem interested in trading in their gas-powered vehicles. According to a recent Gallup poll, for example, 41% of American drivers say they would not buy an EV. So Biden is clearly hoping to incentivize a shift and sentiment on that front. The administration has also encouraged automakers to standardize charging ports. Ideally, every model would be able to use every station. This year, Tesla announced plans to open up thousands of their supercharging stations to competitors by the end of next year. Now, all of this is being done in the name of cleaning up the environment. How effective are EVs at that? They don't emit carbon, but they do use electricity.

Yeah, so on the environmental front, it depends on what metrics you use. While EVs do not emit carbon directly, manufacturing them still does. Their lithium batteries in particular are carbon-intensive. How long it takes for an EV to pay off its so-called carbon debt depends on where it's sourcing its power from and again, how it was made. Currently, most of our electric power comes from burning fossil fuels, and EVs are more mechanically efficient than traditional vehicles because they have fewer moving parts. But even so, it does take years for emissions to even out. And remember, EVs are heavily reliant on special batteries, which need lithium. And mining lithium is not exactly green. Right. It typically requires 500,000 gallons of water to produce one metric ton of lithium.

And the mines are often in dry and poor areas around the world with a limited water. supply. Climate activists have warned that lithium mines often pollute groundwater in the area and lead to a slew of other environmental problems. And then there's the fact that lithium is also a very reactive element. So when the batteries are damaged, they can be prone to catching fire or even exploding. Now, we use lithium batteries in almost everything, including our phones, but those larger batteries needed for the cars are more vulnerable to a runaway reaction and more dangerous. To that point, battery fires caused by electric bikes in particular have become a serious problem in cities around the country, including New York and San Francisco. There were more than 100 such fires in the Big Apple

last year, which killed 13 people and injured dozens more. According to New York Fire Commissioner Laura Kavanaugh, damaged batteries are becoming a major risk in the city. It is quickly becoming one of the leading causes of fire deaths this year. And we want to emphasize again, these fires are extremely dangerous. They create a large volume of fire very quickly and present significant threats to New Yorkers who are trying to get out of their homes and to our members. as they respond to these calls. So the takeaway here is there's just no free lunch when it comes to being green.

But what about energy independence, though? That's long been a goal, even just for national security reasons. Yeah, so EVs might decrease our dependence on foreign fossil fuels, assuming we shift more of our grid to nuclear power or other green sources or start producing more oil and gas ourselves.

Remember, we still need to get electricity from somewhere. But even then, most of the world's lithium is outside the U.S. The largest known reserves at the moment are in South America, and manufacturing-wise, roughly 80% of the world's lithium batteries are produced by China. So until we can control the whole supply chain, we will not be independent on that front. Now, that could change. The U.S. does have its own reserves,

and engineers are experimenting with alternative battery designs that use sodium, but we are years away from producing those alternatives at scale. So it sounds like we're in the midst of a serious EV push, but remains to be seen if Americans are going to step in line. Exactly. All right. Well, Cabot, thanks so much for reporting. Anytime.

That was Daily Wire Senior Editor Cabot Phillips. And this has been a Sunday edition of Morning Wire.