Morning Wire - Early Voting Election Math & Russia Hosts BRICS Summit | 10.23.24

Episode Date: October 23, 2024

Millions of Americans cast their ballots early, another small town receives a massive migrant influx, and Vladimir Putin hosts the BRICS Summit. Get the facts first with Morning Wire. Prize Picks: Download the app today and use code "MORNINGWIRE" to get $50 instantly when you play $5: https://prizepicks.onelink.me/LME0/MORNINGWIRE Shopify: Get a $1 per month trial at https://www.shopify.com/morningwire The Candle Club: Join The Candle Club! Become a Founding Member for 20% OFF, plus receive an exclusive members box with a limited-edition candle at https://TheCandleClub.com Morning Wire Survey: https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/7QSF8X2 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

For less than two weeks from Election Day and millions of Americans have already cast their ballots. If the early vote numbers stay the way they are, and that's a big if, we'll almost certainly know before Election Day who's going to win the election. What does the turnout tell us so far? And is it already changing the electoral math? I'm Daily Wire, editor-in-chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Wednesday, October 23rd, and this is Morning Wire. A sudden influx of immigrants has thrown another Midwestern town into chaos. These individuals don't necessarily know the local laws or rules and how to behave here, basically. And we need some help here. And Vladimir Putin heads up a summit of nations in an effort to unseat the U.S. as the world's economic superpower.

Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know. Are you looking for an exciting way to test your sports knowledge? Prize picks America's number one daily fantasy sports app has you covered. I'm a big jiu-jitsu guy. I'm always watching M.M. looking for fighters to break out some solid BJJ technique. With prize picks, I can stack up the stats of multiple fighters on things like their average number of successful takedowns and simply bet on whether they'll hit more or less. To give it a try, download the prize picks app today and use code Morning Wire to get $50

instantly when you play $5. That's Code Morning Wire on prize picks for $50 instantly when you play $5. Prize picks, run your game. Millions of Americans have already voted, including in the crucial swing states that will decide the next president. Here with more on the record turnout is Daily Wire Senior Editor Cabot Phillips. So Cabot early voting is well underway in a number of states. What have we seen so far? Well, at latest count, more than 18 million voters have mailed in their ballot or voted early in person. For context, that is equal to about 10% of the overall votes cast last election. In Georgia,

for example, state officials say they expect up to 70% of votes to be cast before election day. So more and more folks are warming up to the idea of voting early. And what makes this year different is that Republicans are casting their ballots early as well. In the past, Democrats had really dominated the early vote. But we've seen a noticeable messaging shift this past year from Donald Trump, who is now actively encouraging his supporters to cast their ballots as soon as possible. So if you have a ballot, return it immediately. If not, go tomorrow as soon as you can, go to the polls and vote.

Then for the next 21 days, get everyone you. know, to get out and vote. So what do we know about who is voting? So thankfully, in a number of battleground states, including Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina, we can actually see which party early voters are affiliated with. In Nevada, for example, Republicans now hold a 3% lead compared to 2020 when they were down 4% among early voters. It's a similar story in Arizona where Republicans hold a 5.5 point lead.

Democrats are ahead by a point in a half in North Carolina, though a third of votes cast have come from independence. So the big question is how those folks are voting. Harris appears to have her biggest lead in Pennsylvania, where 61% of early votes have been cast by registered Democrats, though their early voting advantage has fallen by eight points compared to 2020. Zuming out, at this point in the 2020 election, Democrats held a 22-point lead among early voters in battlegrounds, and less than a third of votes cast had been for Republicans. This year, at latest count, the Democrat lead has shrunk by 10 points. Now, again, that could, could be just a reflection of Republicans becoming more comfortable with early voting,

but it could also signify more enthusiasm among the GOP base. It's truly anyone's race right now. Now, zooming out a little bit, what are the positive signs for each candidate? So we'll start with Harris. First, she is consistently led in the national polls, which are far less important to the battleground polls, but, you know, can still be helpful in tracking overall voter sentiment. The VP has also consistently gained ground on the question of which candidate voters trust to handle the economy.

In the summer, she trailed on that issue by double digits. Today, she is only down by around four to six points. But the biggest reason for optimism in the Harris camp is the issue of abortion, which has increasingly become a top issue for voters, especially women who vote more often than men. To that point, a new poll from Newsweek found that for the first time this cycle, abortion has overtaken immigration as the second most important issue for voters. That's obviously good news for Harris, who has a significant lead on that topic. And let's talk about Trump.

What are his positive signs? Well, he has had a strong two weeks of polling for sure. The latest real clear politics average has him ahead in all seven battlegrounds, though all seven are within two and a half points. So again, it's very close. Trump has also reached new highs when it comes to his perception among voters. According to the latest polling from Gallup, his favorability rating is at 50%.

That is 14 points higher than when he took office back in 2016 and well above his numbers during his term in office. So he does appear to be gaining in popularity. For her part, Harris is at 48% favorability. And it's interesting, when you look at the numbers among registered voters, Trump is considerably more popular. He is at 52% favorable, 47% unfavorable. Harris is flipped, 47 and 52, which is just quite remarkable for a man who is arguably the most polarizing candidate in modern history. Well, I just voted early on Monday, and it was easy, breezy recommend.

Cabot, thanks for reporting. Anytime. What's the secret sauce behind wildly successful? businesses. It's not great products or brilliant marketing. It's the unsung hero, the business behind the business. For millions of entrepreneurs, that hero is Shopify. Shopify boasts the number one checkout on the planet. With shop pay, they boost conversions up to 50%. That means more sales and fewer abandoned cards. Get a $1 per month trial period at Shopify.com slash morningwire. That's shopify.com slash Morning Wire.

Residents from a city in Indiana say their resources are being strained and their children are being put last due to an influx of migrants mostly from Haiti. Logan's Port is among a growing list of cities facing similar issues from a recent surge in immigrants. Here to discuss this Daily Wire reporter Amanda Presta, Hay Amanda. So Logan's Port residents are speaking out about the struggles they're facing due to this influx of migrants. This is not an unfamiliar story at this point.

Tell us what's going on here. Well, we don't have the exact numbers on immigrants who've moved into the city in the last few years. Actually, the mayor of Logan's Port says he can't get a number from anyone in the state or federal government, which is a problem in itself. But there are at least thousands, potentially 5,000 Haitians alone, of these new migrants now in Logan's Port. That's significant since the city only has a population of just around 18,000. And another report estimates it's far more than that for the entire county, potentially as much as much. many as 11,000 new migrants. Again, most of these migrants have come from Haiti. In January of 23, the Biden-Harris administration launched a new program that has allowed more than 200,000 Haitians

to be paroled into the U.S. And then in the summer, the administration granted temporary protected status or TPS to 300,000 Haitian migrants. This means they can stay in the U.S. until at least February of 2026, even if they entered the country illegally. And what are we hearing from residents on the ground in Logan's Port? What are they experiencing? It's some of the same things we've heard from residents in other towns that are dealing with similar influxes. Logan's Port Mayor Chris Martin, for example, he said that there are assimilation issues related to culture. A resident named Nancy Baker told the New York Post that her 16-year-old daughter was chased by migrants

after she rebuffed their calls to walk over to them while she was on her way to a nearby coffee shop. Another resident, 32-year-old Candice Espinoza, she told the posed migrants routinely stare into her windows while she's home, holding up their phones, potentially recording her, she said. Additionally, resources are now significantly strained. The number of Haitian migrant students in Logan's Port Schools has increased 15-fold since 2021. Teachers are having to spend a lot of time with these students because of the language barrier. It's gotten so bad, Baker says her daughter dropped out of public school to take a lot of. the rest of her classes online. She quit. She's in online school now.

Why? Because there was nobody was getting the attention that they needed. There was way too many kids. And it seemed to her that since they didn't speak the language and didn't understand what was going on that they were getting more attention. Baker told the post she's frustrated that the school

is spending all of its resources on quote, one group of children while everybody else is falling behind. Do we know why migrants are flooding some of these particular small towns. Why Logan's Port in this case? It's difficult to track down exact answers on this, but there does seem to be a connection between nonprofits

who are resettling migrants and businesses looking for labor. A report from Fox 59 and CBS4 connected Haitian migrants in Logan's Port to Tyson Foods, that's a meatpacking plant. The report noted that Tyson did not respond when they were asked about how many migrants, particularly young migrants, working for them in the city. Notably, Haitian teens are reportedly working shifts to help their families while also attending school. Tyson made headlines back in May when a conservative nonprofit called America First Legal asked the DOJ to investigate the company over its employment practices

concerning migrants. AFL said Tyson employs 42,000 foreign workers more than a third of its U.S. workforce. They're also accused of being involved in programs to recruit more migrants. Tyson strongly denied discriminating against American workers for migrants, and they said that all of their workers are legal. Now, in Springfield, Ohio, another town that's been inundated with migrants, also from Haiti, manufacturing and packing plant jobs opened up, and businesses welcomed and even encouraged the flow of migrants to fill those labor needs. A reminder for listeners, it's estimated that about 20,000 Haitian migrants moved into Springfield, which had a population of just 60,000 people. Charleroi, a small town in PA, has seen a 2,000% increase in its immigration population in just the past few years.

Residents and officials from those towns say there's been an increase in traffic violations and car accidents. They say resources at schools and local law enforcement are strained. Housing has become more scarce. And residents are struggling overall with the lack of assimilation from the newcomers. We're definitely seeing this pattern of more and more communities sounding the alarm over this immigration trend. Yeah, we sure have. Amanda, thanks for reporting. You're welcome.

Russian President Vladimir Putin is presiding over a major global economic summit this week, gathering leaders of developing nations in the Russian city of Kazan. Here with more is Daily Wire Deputy Managing Editor Tim Rise. Hey, Tim. So we've talked about BRICS in the past, but for those who haven't followed this summit, this is effectively Moscow's answer to the G7. Is that correct? Yeah, good morning, John. That's exactly right. This is the 16th annual BRICS summit, which takes its name from the countries that founded it, Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. Now, this year's summit is particularly notable because the group is welcoming four new member nations,

Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates. Earlier this month, Putin said he planned for this year's summit to be a chance for member nations to discuss building a new world order with all our friends, partners, and like-minded people. It's a new world order, not exactly what you want to hear from a group that has many of America's key adversaries in it. Should we be worried about this? Well, I spoke to financial analyst John Rubino, who said that from an economic perspective, BRIC's goals are pretty much diametrically opposed to ours and that it's successful likely come at our expense. The U.S. has the world's reserve currency, the dollar, and we've gotten in the habit of using it as a weapon.

A lot of other countries don't like that. And this time around, the BRICS countries have a lot more than the usual amount of incentive to make something serious happen because, you know, we're on the verge of World War III out there in several different theaters. One of those things, which Rubino thinks we could see the BRICS nations announced this week, is the creation of a new gold standard currency backed by the member nations. If that happens, it could wreak havoc on the American economy. If the dollar becomes less necessary in the global economy, that's potentially a dangerous thing for the U.S. because there's maybe $10 trillion circulating out there. And if other countries don't need those dollars to hold in their central bank reserves to protect their own currencies or to trade with each other, then those dollars are going to tend to come back to the U.S. and be exchanged for U.S.-based assets.

You know, somebody will take a bunch of treasury bonds and they'll want to convert those into farmland in, in Kansas or something like that, or Miami condos or whatever, depending on the country, that will tend to push up the prices of those things in the U.S., which is inflation. So obviously that sounds bad. But on the flip side, Rubino argues that the U.S. might not have any choice but to accept that we can't be the world's sole superpower forever. He went on to suggest that this might even lead to some moderation from Russia and China. I also asked Rubino whether he thought the presidential election would impact the rise of bricks

and how each candidate would respond to this brave new world. He offered a qualified endorsement of Trump, who he thinks is more willing to work within the reality of the global power dynamic, which in this case means dealing with BRICS nations. I'm sure there'll be more developments from the summit. We'll follow it closely. Tim, thanks for reporting. Anytime.

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