Morning Wire - Election Day 2025: Eyes on Jersey & NYC | 11.4.25

Episode Date: November 4, 2025

We look at the final polling and stakes for both parties, check on the New Jersey governor’s race, and peer into New York City, where front-runner Zohran Mamdani brings a commanding lead into Election Day. Get the facts first with Morning Wire. - - - Wake up with new Morning Wire merch: https://bit.ly/4lIubt3 - - - Today's Sponsors: Vanta - Get started at https://Vanta.com/MORNINGWIRE Equip Foods - Equip’s Prime Bar is a real food protein bar with nothing to hide: just 11 ingredients and 20g of clean protein - made from ingredients you can pronounce like collagen, beef tallow, colostrum, cocoa butter - and sweetened naturally with just date and honey. Morning Wire listeners will get 25% off one-time purchases, or 40% off first subscription orders for a limited time by heading to https://equipfoods.com/wire and using code WIRE at checkout. - - - Privacy Policy: https://www.dailywire.com/privacy morning wire,morning wire podcast,the morning wire podcast,Georgia Howe,John Bickley,daily wire podcast,podcast,news podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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com or to your agent of voyage. Election Day is here with pivotal races that will determine the direction of several cities and states. College-educated voters have moved somewhat towards Republicans and non-college a little bit away from Republicans. We look at the final polling and what's on the line for each party. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire Executive Editor John Bickley.

It's Tuesday, November 4th, and this is Morning Wire. New Jersey's race for governor tightened in the final weeks. we walk through the clashing stances of the two candidates. I'm declaring a state of emergency on day one freezing utility rate hikes. When I'm governor, we will not be a sanctuary state. I'm reversing that policy on day one. And Zoran Mamdani comes into the day with the electoral wind in his sales. But where will his agenda lead America's biggest city?

Together, New York, we're going to freeze up. Together, New York, we're going to make buses. fast, man. Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know. Customer trust can make or break your business. And as your business grows and scales, the security and compliance tools you rely on

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It's election day as millions of voters in several states will make their voices heard. Daily Wire, senior editor, Cabot Phillips, has more on these closely watched races. Hey, Cabot, happy election day. Same to you, Georgia. So Megan and Amanda are going to drill down into two of these races. But I want to start with you with a general overview of what we're looking at this election day. What are we expecting to see? Well, to begin, this could well be a rough night for the GOP.

The party in control of Washington almost always does poorly when it comes to off-year elections. And the biggest races this year are in blue states and blue cities. But conservatives are still hopeful that they can pull off at least one or two upsets hopefully, and it looks like their best shot is in New Jersey. That is where Republican Jack Chitarelli has stormed back from a 20-point deficit to give Democrat Mikey Cheryl a real run for her money. The latest polling out of the state has him within the margin of error. that's a place again where Donald Trump got within six points last year,

so he's looking to continue that GOP momentum. But if Tudorale is going to win today, he's going to have to have enormous turnout from his base and also win the majority of independence, likely by around 7, 8, 10 plus points. Remember, New Jersey has nearly a million more registered Democrats than Republicans. And based on the latest data right now, Democrats have already cast about 220,000 more mail-in ballots than Republicans.

So Titewrelli is already digging out of a significant in toll. That's where the turnout election day comes in. This week, Democrats brought in former President Barack Obama to make the closing pitch to New Jersey voters on behalf of Mikey Cheryl. And he spent most of the speech talking about Chittarelli, though he didn't use his name. He tried to tie him to Donald Trump. Now, for his part, Chittarelli did not seem too worried by those accusations. Have a listen on the trail this week. Obama said you're sucking up to Trump. Who said that? President Obama.

President who? Yes, exactly. So Democrats looking for a boost from President Obama in New Jersey, but how are things looking for them in Virginia? Yeah, this is the race where Democrats are viewing it as a safer bet with their nominee Abigail Spanberger, holding about a 10-point lead over the Republican winsome Earl Sears. Republicans were hopeful that the texting scandal involving AG nominee Jay Jones, which we've talked about a lot on the show, would drag Spanberger down. But despite her refusal to retract her endorsement of Jones, she is holding steady. For more on the Virginia race, I spoke with Brent Buchanan, a Republican pollster who founded Signal Polling.

Here's what he had to say about what it's going to take for Winston Sears to pull off this JOPI upset. The Southwest, which is the more rural Republican parts, have to come out in droves equally or going beyond what they did for Donald Trump. She has to hold her own in what's called the Hampton Roads area, which is the Tidewater, Virginia Beach, Norfolk area in the southeast of the state. and the election day turnout in the suburbs and urban areas of the state have to be pretty darn low. It's a lot of pieces that have to fall into place for winsome seers to win. Now, one more topic before you go. Prop 50 in California, that's been pretty controversial. Where do things stand there?

So just for context, Prop 50 is known as the Election Ringing Response Act. It was proposed by California Governor Gavin Newsom. And it would suspend the state's existing congressional map and then allow Democrats to redraw, the districts along partisan lines, essentially allowing them to add up to five new Democratic seats. That measure has drawn outrage from Republicans around the country. For their part, Democrats claim that it's a response to similar legislation in states like Texas. But regardless, it looks almost certain to pass tonight and likely by an overwhelming majority that could have major ramifications in a very closely divided Congress back in D.C. Well, a lot of states are going

to have new maps by 2026. So very interesting to see how that goes. Cabot, thanks for reporting. Absolutely. Do you ever read protein bar labels and feel like you're deciphering a candy bar wrapper? The supplement industry is packed with bars masquerading as health foods, loaded with sugar and artificial ingredients that leave you bloated and unsatisfied. Luckily, we discovered Equipped Foods Prime Bar, the first of its kind, grass-fed beef protein bar with only real food ingredients and absolutely nothing to hide with 20 grams of clean protein.

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go to equipfoods.com slash wire and use code wire at checkout to get 25% off one-time purchases or 40% off your first subscription order for a limited time. That's EQUIP Foods.com slash wire and use code wire at checkout. New Jersey residents hit the polls today to elect their next governor. The increasingly close race pits Democrat Mikey Sherrill against Republican Jack Chittarelli, who's hoping to flip the Garden State red. Here with Morris Daily Wire reporter Amanda Presta Giacomo. Hey Amanda. So we've been covering this increasingly tight race.

We just aired our interview with Chittorelli this weekend, in fact, Cabot has highlighted the numbers First, why is this race so important on a national level? Yeah, well, first of all, like you said, John, it really is razor thin. Most polls are within the margin of error. The important context here is that New Jersey is considered a blue state. Residents have voted for the Democrat presidential candidate in every election since 1992. The outgoing Governor Phil Murphy, he's a Democrat, and Mikey Sherrill up until recently, she had a very substantial lead over Chittarelli.

Now, as for this election, more than a million New Jersey residents have already voted, But Republicans do tend to show up right on Election Day. A beautiful weather forecast as far as November, New Jersey's go for today, New Jersey. So, you know, we'll see if this upset is in the cards for Chittarelli. Now, we've seen some big names, the biggest, in fact, play roles in this race. Former President Obama and President Trump have had some influence here. Tell us about that. Yeah, I mean, you know Democrats are concerned about a race when they call in Obama.

And as has been the trend of Cheryl's campaign, Obama's pitch was pretty much all about Trump. Here's Obama. It's hard to know where to start. Because every day this White House offers up a fresh batch of lawlessness and carelessness and mean-spiritedness and just plain old craziness. Definitely a lot of Trump focused, like you said there, for sure, unsurprisingly. Now, how has Trump factored into Chittarelli's campaigning? Yeah, the president has enthusiastically endorsed Chitterelli's.

calling him a great candidate who's all in on the MAGA agenda. You know, as for Chittarelli, he hasn't necessarily shied away from that. But there has been some nuance in his positions because, you know, he's campaigning in New Jersey and not Florida. So, for example, he said that he will repeal the broad sanctuary policy on illegal immigration on day one. But he's also indicated that whatever it is the local mayor and police chief decide to do to keep their community safe, he'll be on board with that. So he's maintaining some, if not, distance than autonomy there. Outside of the national politics, what are the main issues driving this election on a state level locally? Yeah, I mean, economic issues are top of mind for New Jersey

residents. Scott Pressler, who's known for his boots on the ground efforts, he's in New Jersey now, and he's gained national attention for helping flip Pennsylvania for Trump in 2024. He told the daily wire that this race is 100% in play, and he called this an economic election. Pressler said that New Jersey voters are being crushed by property taxes and electricity taxes in particular, and it's not surprising that Chittarelli has really focused in on those issues and criticized Democrats for their energy policies in particular. Cultural issues and parental rights, that's also playing a factor here. Cheryl did take some heat for saying that she'd mandate an LGBTQ curriculum in public schools and for suggesting that parents don't have a right to opt out of that. She's also battling some negative press about a reported $7 million that she made from stock trades while in Congress.

She was actually fined for violating the Stock Act, for example. There's also a cheating scandal from her Naval Academy days that happened in 1994. Now, all of these issues matter to New Jersey residents. But I will say, you know, hitting the pavement and good old-fashioned retail politics that does seem to be helping Chittarelli. There was actually a really nice moment yesterday where at one of these stops, Chidorelli's son who's serving in the U.S. military, he came home from Kuwait to surprise his dad. A New Jersey.com columnist said that he wouldn't be surprised if Chittarelli does pull off this upset. He said that the Republican has been keeping a frantic schedule that makes, quote, the Energizer Bunny look like a sloth on quailutes.

So could be another factor. Definitely some promising signs for the Republican. But again, it's very hard to reverse electoral trends in a state. So we'll see tonight. Amita, thanks for reporting. You're welcome. 60% of the vans on Amazon

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Trove to put other like the other on Polls are open this morning in New York City, and Zoram Mamdani, a self-proclaimed democratic socialist, appears poised to win the mayoral race.

Here to discuss is Daily Wire Culture reporter, Megan Basham. So, Megan, just to start, how likely is it that Momdani wins today? Well, you know, Georgia, I would say if he doesn't, it's going to be an upset of pretty epic proportions. So just to break down a few of the polling numbers that we're seeing right now, most of the major polling outfits are showing that his margins range from anywhere from 10 points to 25 points in his favor. He's winning between 44 and 50 percent support compared to Cuomo, who's only getting around 25 to 34 percent support. And Republican Curtis Sliwa, who's pulling about 15 to 21 percent.

So Daily Wire reporter Breka Stoll was out on the ground in New York, and here's what she's seeing. Mandami obviously has a really fun and great presence online. if I was in New York, I'd vote for him. I think he has some special interest groups that he will give things to, and then government grocery stores with long lines, probably no food, and a lot of promises that won't actually help people. As far as free rent goes, somebody is paying for that rent.

There's nothing that's free in reality. Now, that said, a last-minute poll from Atlas Intel does show the race tightening over what some of these other major polling outfits are showing. So they're giving MomDani only a 6.6% lead over Cuomo, but it's still a lead, and we're seeing that reflected in the betting markets right now. Polly Market has MomDani's likelihood of winning at about 95%. And that's especially being driven by those young voters under 35. So I think, Georgia, if these numbers hold, we're looking at the first openly socialist mayor of New York City. Is this a harbinger for the Democratic Party at large, or is New York? kind of a unique case? Well, I think it's definitely going to have some national impact. So one of the

things we can look at here is the fact that the younger generation is much more open to socialism than older voters have been in the past. So according to a recent survey, only 31% of young Democrats today have a positive view of capitalism. And that's a massive 23 point drop since 2010. So you can see a significant shift there. So it's not surprising then that Mamdani is having some success running on things like rent freezing, free city buses, free child care, and even government-owned grocery stores with fixed prices. And then the other thing I think we can take from this is the split that we're seeing between foreign-born voters and American-born voters. So the bulk of Mamadani's support is coming from that foreign-born voting base. But for American-born New York voters, Cuomo actually

holds the lead by eight points over Mamdani. And it's also worth noting that Mamdani's, would be New York's first Muslim mayor, and his positions on Israel have concerned a lot of Jewish Americans. He's done things like refuse to recognize Israel as a Jewish state. He's also refused to condemn slogans like Globalize the Intifada. Do you condemn that phrase, globalize the intifada? That's not language that I use. The language that I use and the language that I will continue to use to lead this city, is that which speaks clearly to my intent, which is an intent grounded in a belief in universal human rights. So you are hearing a lot of concern that he represents a growing acceptance of anti-Semitism on the political left. Now, despite all of that success with young

voters and perhaps foreign-born voters, it's worth noting there's a lot of reluctance from the party's top leaders to endorse Mom Donnie. There's people like AOC and Bernie Sanders who have, but aside from them, we've seen pretty tepid endorsements at best from, I think, Hakeem Jeffries was the most recent. How's the party going to respond to this when, do you think? Yeah, I think that brings up a great point. They're obviously trying to handle him very carefully. They want that momentum. They want that youth vote. And in respect to that, it's not surprising then that you are seeing the easily hard left members of the Democratic Party. Like you said, your AOCs, your Bernie Sanders, your Elizabeth Warren's coming out in support of him. but the other major figureheads are treading very carefully.

Barack Obama, for instance, did call him and offer some support. He offered to be a sounding board, but he didn't actually endorse Mom Dani. And when you look at Hakeem Jeffries, that endorsement only came at the very last minute. And when he was directly asked after that, if he thinks that Mom Dani represents the new face of the Democratic Party, he said, no, he doesn't think that he does. And you can also kind of see the difficult dance they're having to do with, Governor Kathy Hokel. She appeared at an event with Mom Donnie, and when the crowd was chanting tax the rich, she responded, I hear you, but later she denied that she understood what they were saying. And so she said that she would not back raising taxes on the richest New Yorkers because

they're crucial to the tax base. One and a half percent of New Yorkers cover about a third of our budget. That's enormous. I'm concerned about outmigration of people. people who are the ones who are sporting our budget. I cannot make up for that with middle-class tax increases. Well, a mom, Donnie Wynn, would seem to solidify a very hard left turn for the party, at least in the eyes of voters, if not some of those top party brass. Megan, thanks for reporting. Yep, my pleasure. Thanks for waking up with us. And for those listening to the show, you can also watch it free on Daily Wire Plus. We'll be back this evening with more news you need to know.