Morning Wire - Election Wire: The Debates

Episode Date: October 30, 2022

Candidates spar on the debate stage, while making their final appeal to voters. Republicans continue to surge in the polls as early voting reaches record-breaking levels, and the latest polls in all the battleground races. Plus our exclusive poll in Georgia. Get all the election news you need to know on Election Wire. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Candidates spar on the debate stage while making their final appeal to voters. Republicans continue to win the enthusiasm gap as early voting reaches record-breaking levels. And the toss-ups, who's gaining and who's losing ground with voters. Plus, ElectionWire speaks directly to voters about the issues they are most concerned about, and we unveil our latest exclusive poll. Hello and welcome to ElectionWire. I'm John Bickley, Daily Wire Editor-in-Chief, and I'm joined by Senior Editor Cabot Phillips. Cabot, we'll get to some of the key debate moments in a second. But first, a lot has happened in

this last week. Tell us about the shifting wins with just over a week to go. Well, by every single metric we have, Republicans are in a better spot now than they were even just a week ago. The wins are certainly changing. Now, we'd seen anecdotal evidence over the last month of that shift taking place. But it's now impossible to deny if you look at all the hard data at the statewide and the national level, Republicans are clearly gaining ground. Now, it's not a mystery. The main reason for that is the consistent state of the state. economy, it's not getting any better. In many areas, it's actually getting worse. And to kind of give you an example of what that looks like and how specifically that's causing independent voters

to break late towards the right. The left-leaning navigator, for example, had a 20-point jump in the last month among independent voters saying that they are more concerned now about the economy and gas prices. 20 points in a month. That specifically is helping Republicans. We saw the Cook political report, which in the past has kind of exaggerated Democrats' support in polling when you see the final numbers. Even they published a new piece this week saying that Republicans might end up not losing a single incumbent Senate seat or a single governorship. So you're starting to see kind of this shift take place in the mainstream media as well, where they're starting to temper expectations for Democrats as we see more and more hard data that Republicans are gaining ground. All right. So let's jump right into these debates. A big debate night, Tuesday night.

a lot of candidates facing off in some key races. We'll start with the one that everyone's been waiting for, though, and that's in Pennsylvania between John Federman, Mehmet, Oz. Really a debate like we've never seen before. Tell us about this. That is not overstating it. We really haven't seen a situation like this where, first of all, there were questions if it would even happen in the first place.

Federman suffered that stroke back before the primary. His campaign team has really kept him off the trail. They've kept his appearances very limited. There was a lot of argument over whether this debate would happen. Fetterman faced a lot of mounting pressure of his team saying, you got to get out there, you got to make your closing pitch. And within just a few minutes, it was pretty obvious why they were trying to keep this debate from happening. Fetterman had clear signs of that stroke. He had numerous moments where he just blanked and wasn't able to finish an answer.

Throughout the night, he was clearly having problems processing the questions given to him. And you can see from some of these clips just how difficult at times it was to watch. I ever got knocked down that had to get back up again. I'm also fighting for any forgotten community all across Pennsylvania's. They ever got knocked down that had to be made to get back up. And I've made my entire career dedicating to those kinds of pursuits. I started as a GED instructor back in Braddock over 20 years ago because I believe it's about serving Pennsylvania, not about using Pennsylvania for their own end interests as well.

To me, careers are refilled by your real underlying values. And my values have always been about fighting for forgotten communities all across Pennsylvania. All right, so Federman's closing statement there and a really halting, kind of difficult to watch. We saw some other moments too. Yeah, and it's worth pointing out also that was the, kind of the tone all night. That was actually at times one of the more coherent messages we heard. The other big moment that was going viral throughout the evening was on the issue of fracking. Keep in mind, the issue of fracking in Pennsylvania is incredibly important for a lot of voters

there. Fetterman appeared to flip-flop saying that he actually supported fracking after earlier in his career throughout his career actually saying that he wanted to see it done away with. This moment had a lot of Pennsylvania voters watching. Clarify something. You're saying tonight that you support fracking, that you've always supported fracking. But there is that 2018 interview that you said, quote, I don't support fracking at all. So how do you square the two?

Oh, I do support fracking and I don't, I don't, I support fracking and I stand and I do support fracking. So another answer there, kind of difficult to understand what he's saying and definitely a flip-flop from some of his past positions. But there were moments that Federman's team viewed as a victory for their, campaign. There was one particular answer that Dr. Oz gave on abortion that's, again, had a lot of people talking. Dr. Oz seemed to imply that politicians should be also in the decision-making process for women when it comes to getting an abortion. Watch that moment.

I want women, doctors, local political leaders, letting the democracy that's always allowed our nation to thrive to put the best ideas forward so states can decide for themselves. So that one line in there about local politicians being involved in the conversation about abortion with women and their doctors. That, by the next day, Democrats had already put into political ads. They'd spent a million dollars on Pennsylvania and 24 hours after trying to say, look, Dr. Oz thinks that politicians should have a say in women's healthcare decisions. Oz's team saying, no, you're misconstruing what he actually meant there.

But regardless, immediately after this debate, it was viewed by virtually everyone as a clear win for Dr. Oz. There was one tracking poll after where 82% of viewers said that Dr. Oz came out the clear winner. And another interesting element here are the betting markets. So you can kind of help give you a feel for how it's sometimes even more accurate than polls, but give you a feel for where the money is going. Coming into the summer, Federman was a two-to-one favorite over Oz.

Coming into the debate, it had narrowed. It was about 50-50. It was even odds. Within the first 10 minutes of the debate going on, the odds for Dr. Oz shot up. He ended the debate a two-to-one favorite after being a two-to-one underdog at the start of the summer. A complete reversal. So all the money now in those markets is going towards Oz after that debate. So let's move now to New York where Republican Lee Zeldon was facing off against Governor Kathy Hokel.

Another debate that got a lot of attention. There's a couple of key moments there. Tell us about that. Well, this is another race that no one expected to be close coming out of the summer. Hockel had a gigantic lead over Zeldon. The only reason that Zeldon has pulled within low single digits right now is because of crime. We know for a fact Republicans are having huge success on that issue. And there was a moment during the debate where Zeldon,

continued bringing up crime. And Hockel challenged him, actually, on the issue of crime saying, why are you bringing this up so much? That had everyone talking. Watch. They're not being represented from this, this governor, who still, to this moment,

what are we halfway through the debate, she still hasn't talked about locking up anyone committing any crimes. Okay. Anyone who commits a crime under our laws, especially with the change they made to bail, has consequences. I don't know why that's so important.

That line, I don't know why that's so important to you referring to crime. That in the 24 hours afterwards was plastered all over ads online in newspapers. That was the line of the debate. And really, that's been the line of the campaign so far. Keep in mind, these are the kinds of moments that can be a turning point for a race, especially a race like this, where all the momentum is clearly with Zelda. That can kind of push him over the edge with a lot of voters, especially in a state like New York that's been ravaged by violent crime.

Another big moment that was getting a lot of attention was when Zelda, responded to Hokel. She was saying that crime had only to do with guns and if you could just get the guns off the street, it would fix crime. Zeldon wasn't having it. Listen. It's about getting the guns off the streets. That's the first start. We have more to do, but I'm the one to do it. Did you want to respond? Yeah. Yeah, of course. Unfortunately, Kathy Hokel believes that the only crimes that are being committed are these crimes with guns. And you have people who are afraid of being pushed in front of oncoming subway cars. They're being stabbed, beaten to death on the street with hammers.

Go talk to the Asian American community and how it's impact them with the loss of lives. Jewish people targeted with raw, violent anti-Semitism on our streets. It just happened yet again. We need to be talking about all of these other crimes, but instead, Kathy Hogle's too busy patting herself on the back, job,

well done. No, actually, right now there should be a special session. The state legislature should come back and they should overhaul Castles Bail and these other pro-criminal laws with zero tolerance. But they're saying, elect me. She says, elect me, and then you'll find out where maybe I'll stand on this issue in January. Now, there he is speaking very passionately and personally with the attacks on him about crime.

Now, the Michigan governor's race is starting to get close. More people watch this debate, I think, than probably planned to because of the polling we've seen. What happened there? Well, you bring up the discrepancy in polling from over the summer, where the incumbent Gretchengett Whitmer, the Democrat, was up 15 points at sometimes 18-1 poll. Now it's tightened. Some polls have it, you know, still a five or six point. lead for Whitmer. Others have it incredibly close in a statistical tie. One thing that stuck out from

this debate was how Tudor Dixon the Republican was offering her message on abortion. We've seen some Republican candidates on the defensive because they feel like that's been a winning issue for Democrats. Tudor Dixon came out on the offensive when it came to abortion. Have a listen. The governor has the most radical opinion of abortion. She was asked twice in the last debate if she had any limits on abortion, she refused to answer because she has no limits on abortion. When she calls me extreme, the truth is that there's no more extreme position than Governor Whitmer's on abortion. All right. So we had the candidates talk about a lot of issues, but the candidates also brought up a name in a very prominent way over and over again. The Republicans did at least. Joe Biden. Tell us about that.

Well, it's a name that's not even on the ballot, but make no mistake about it, Joe Biden is on the ballot this year. Republicans were insistent on reminding voters. Essentially, their message was ex-candidate, and this case the Democrat candidate voting for him or voting for her is just like voting for Joe Biden. That's what they were trying to do. Many candidates were bringing up if there was a Senate race saying this candidate voted this percentage of the time with Biden's agenda. Many candidates were pointing out this candidate is lockstep with Joe Biden. So the key message from Republicans was trying to associate Democrats with Joe Biden.

So let's get to some of those states. We want to look now at the latest polling from key battleground races that will decide things in November. Cabot, what are we looking at? Well, what we're looking at is more good news for Republicans. We'll start with the two Senate races where Republicans have really started to pull ahead after a summer where things got uncomfortably tight for them. We'll go to Ohio first, where J.D. Vance is now ahead by four points.

Keep in mind, this race was going back and forth with Democrat Tim Ryan all summer. It appeared like a true toss-up. You can sort of view Ohio right now as more of a Leans Republican as opposed to a traditional toss-up. That's the same situation out in Wisconsin, where incumbent Senator Ron Johnson had been facing an unexpectedly tight race from Democrat Challenger Mandela Barnes. There were a number of polls over the summer and even into the early fall where Barnes was ahead by one to two, even three points. But the latest polling has Ron Johnson now with a five point lead. And every poll you look at, it's very clear right now that Ron Johnson, the incumbent Republican, is in the driver's seat

in Wisconsin. So in those two states, Republicans are kind of breathing a little easier because those are going to be vital states for them to pick up if they're going to get to 51. We'll head out west now to Arizona where it is more of a traditional toss-up race. Now, that's still good news for Republicans because early on in the summer, it was a lean Democrat or even likely Democrat race there with the incumbent Mark Kelly. He had a clear fundraising advantage. He had clear name recognition advantage. But right now, Blake Masters is gaining ground and gaining ground fast.

Some polls have it all tied up. Other polls out for Fulgar latest has him within two points. All the momentum right now lies with Republicans in Arizona. And speaking of Republicans there, it's important to the last. look at another Republican race, the governor's race, where Carrie Lake is pulling ahead from the Democrat, Katie Hobbs. She is now up convincingly, anywhere from four to even 11 points in some polls. And that is having sort of a coattail effect, where Blake Masters is benefiting from the popularity of Lake. And a lot of Republicans are saying, hey, if Carrie Lake wins by six to

10 points, she's got to help down the ballot with someone like Blake Masters who may not be as popular with the Republican base right now. So Republicans, they're very confident. And Carrie Lake, for her part, is doing everything she can to help Masters. Every single event she has, she's shouting him out, telling her audience, go vote for Blake Masters. We're seeing campaign signs across the state that say vote Blake and vote Lake. We're not seeing that type of unity with the Democrats. Hobbs in the governor's race and Mark Kelly in the Democrat Senate race.

We're not seeing them campaign together. We're not seeing them cut ads together. So clearly, more unity on the Republican side in Arizona. That is a big benefit in a race this close. do not ignore how much of an impact carry lake could have on the Senate race there. Going up now to Oregon, another governor's race that people weren't expecting to be as close, but there could be a Republican governor in Oregon come November for the first time in 40 years. That's the longest drought that we've seen in the entire country.

But one thing that we're seeing is things are getting tighter between the Democrat and Republican candidates as the independent candidate, Betsy Johnson, who had been around 20% in most polls. She's now dropped down to about 10 to 12 percent. and most of her supporters have now gone to the Democrat Tina Kotech. So Christine Drazen is now up by one point, two points in some other polls. It's very close. She does still have the lead, but Democrats are closing fast. So now the final question remains, how much support does Betsy Johnson keep up until election day?

And if more of her supporters drop off, do they go to the Democrats or do they simply not vote? So keep an eye on Oregon. One other interesting nugget there, Nike founder, Phil Knight, has now donated another $1.5 million to the Republican Christine Drazen, bringing his total to $3 million in the state. He wants Republicans, or at least not Democrats, in control of the state where Nike's headquarters are. And then finally, we go to Michigan, where the governor's race there between Republican Tudor Dixon and Democrat Gretchen Whitmer. The incumbent is, again, unexpectedly close. Some of the latest polls have Whitmer up six points, but others, like our partners at Trafalgar,

have it as a statistical tie. Regardless of how you look at it. it. The clear advantage right now, or clear the momentum, I should say, is going for Tudor Dixon, something you'd expect to see continue after that strong debate performance that she had. But keep an eye on Michigan. There could be a red wave coming to Michigan, to Oregon, to some states that we weren't really expecting to see. But good news for Republicans right now, they've got the momentum. Joining us now to release another exclusive poll is Robert Cahley, founder of Trafalgar Group, one of the most trusted pollsters in the industry. Robert, this week, pulled the voters of Georgia, where we have Democrat Senator Raphael Warnock, that's the incumbent,

being challenged by Republican Herschel Walker. This is a really incredible shift. What did you find? So we found that Walker is now up by two, where he was down by two of the last one at 49 to 47. And what's interesting is the other one happened all before the debate. And the other two polls at the same time, Emerson and the insider advantage, both down 2% and 3% of 4%. respectfully, where they were all of us together at an average of a just deliver 2% down. And so this is a major shift from the debate. There was one immediately followed the debate that had that even. And this is the first advantage for Walker.

But it seems to be all based on the debate and the shifting of things that happened after the debate, where the Warnock was kind of put on the spot about the, you know, quote unquote slum lord accusations that he and the church owned the property that had was. invicting people for $100 while the church was paying him a $7,000 a housing bonus. And so it really kind of shifted things. The debate performance, Herschel kind of held his own in a way that no one really expected him to. Right. And, you know, going into that, Herschel Walker, there's a lot of questions about how he would hold up in the debate.

And I think a lot of people were impressed. And you saw a lot of the viral moments from that were Herschel Walker responding. So it was actually focused on a positive moment for. Walker and I think the perception there is that he did win or at least come out sort of even in that debate. And that's exactly right because a lot of people who didn't see the debate only saw what you just said kind of those viral moments from it. And that is there, you know, how they feel about the entire debate. And some of his answers constantly the way he dealt with the pro-life question and talked about abortions in the city of Atlanta, the way he constantly tied things back to Biden.

And by my count, he referred Walker referred to Biden 37 times. And, you know, tying Warnock to Biden is the way to win the election. I think I've said that from her beginning. Robert, you mentioned Walker is at 49%. That's an important number because of the quirk in Georgia where a candidate must get to 50% to avoid a runoff. Do you think that either of these candidates is in a position where they'll be able to get to that 50 mark? Absolutely. Walker's 49% is essentially, you know, 40%.

8.9 rounded up to 49. So that's 1.1 away from 50 and it's 50% plus one. So that's not a very hard to heal the climb at this point. So it's completely possible that Wofford can take this momentum and turn it into a possible victory without a runoff. Let's move to the governor's race where we have Democrats, Stacey Abrams, challenging incumbent Republican governor Brian Kemp's lead seems to be holding, correct? Yeah, according to our note, numbers, this seven point area has been where Kemp's been for a while. I really continue to be shocked about how bad campaign that Abrams is running. I mean, I personally always thought she is very, very clever and one of the smartest people in the political space in Georgia. So it really

is surprising to me, some of the missteps she's made as a candidate. Interestingly, when you look at when you kind of dig into these numbers, is that both Kemp and Herschel are, over 20% of the black vote. And that is just earth-shattering this point because we also know that a lot of those African-American voters tend to be a little hesitant to say they're voting for Republicans. So if this 20% who will say so,

and Hersch was a little higher at 23, I think that vote could be even stronger, but it's just devastating for Abrams that she could have that kind of percentage happening. Yeah, that's more than doubled that we're used to seeing nationally speaking in terms of the black vote for Republicans. Abrams seems to be having a bad news cycle too with a report that her campaign manager collected millions of dollars from Abrams's voting rights organization. Are you seeing any

movement on that front? You know, that's that's one of those stories that's been reported a lot in conservative media, but it really hasn't made the mainstream. There's a mainstream wall, especially that circles the city of Atlanta when it comes to negative press on Warren Hark, or Abrams, and they just can't get over that wall outside of some conservative news outlets. So, no, I really don't see it having that big of the impact at this point. And we're in a silly season to the point where any accusation against either candidate is seeing with the suspicion that accusations in late October November automatically come with. Well, Robert, we just have two weeks to go. We're going to have another poll next week that we

unveil on this show. Great to have you back on. Thanks for joining us. Absolutely, thanks. Every week on election wire, we showcase the voices of voters across the country. Here's what Americans are concerned about today. I'd say inflation. Cost of living versus wage, like the average wage versus cost of living. Probably the economy. When it came down to like the vaccine mandates, you know, part of my family's vaccinated.

Part of us is not, but I'm just like people need to have a right to choose. The homeless issue, again, Fresno is not huge, but any time you go towards L.A. San Francisco. I mean, it's just, you know, even in Fresno, we watch it creep up farther and farther into more affluent neighborhoods, and it's, I mean, it's, it's been real tough to deal with. And I didn't want to have my child get the vaccine as a five-year-old. Luckily, the parents spoke up, and we voted it out, and we got the school district to not do that. Same thing with the mask. My daughter was the only child in the entire kindergarten, in her school with a mask exemption. I mean, nobody's going to teach my child about sex or, you know, I don't care if it's same sex or heterosexual sex.

It's sex. I can teach my kid that at home. Look at the unemployment rate. Look at the track. Look at the jobs that, the job availability. Always good to hear directly from voters. That's it for this episode of Election Wire. We'll be back next week with all the election news you need to know.