Morning Wire - Inflation, War, and Voters: What the Data Really Shows

Episode Date: March 29, 2026

Gas prices are rising again and voters are feeling it. In this episode, pollster Brent Buchanan breaks down what the data really shows about affordability, inflation, and the voters who could decide the next election. Get the facts first with Morning Wire.- - -Ep. 2706- - -Wake up with new Morning Wire merch: https://bit.ly/4lIubt3- - -Today's Sponsors:Fast Growing Trees - Visit https://fastgrowingtrees.com to get 20% off your first purchase when using the code WIRE at checkout.Alliance Defending Freedom - Visit https://JoinADF.com/WIRE or text 'WIRE' to 83848 to learn more.- - -Privacy Policy: https://www.dailywire.com/privacymorning wire,morning wire podcast,the morning wire podcast,Georgia Howe,John Bickley,daily wire podcast,podcast,news podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Affordability remains a top concern for Americans as rising gas prices threatened to spike necessities like groceries even more. Surveys show a key GOP demographic is feeling the pinch most acutely, which could spell trouble for Trump this fall. In this episode, we speak to a pollster and political analyst about the state of the economy and how it's affecting the mood of voters, both in the U.S. and Europe. I'm Georgia Howe with Daily Wire Executive Editor John Bickley, and this is a weekend edition of Morning Wire. Fast-growing trees is America's largest and most trusted online nursery, with thousands of trees and plants and over 2 million happy customers. Think of it as your local nursery available anywhere, with a bigger selection than you'll find anywhere else.

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So prices are surging right now because of gas, but there's, of course, the larger economy to look at as well. Now, you've reported there are some positives. First, can you tell us the big picture, particularly with jobs? Well, let's go back to President Trump's State of the Union where he talked about wage growth. That's a really important aspect of costs that nobody's talking about, which is that if you have more money to spend and costs go up a little bit, it doesn't impact you nearly as much. And one of the hardest things about the Joe Biden presidency was the fact that wages were depressed while costs were skyrocketed. So your ability to purchase was even made worse and harder than even slight increases. price right now. So that's the number one thing, is focusing on what are the two inputs of everybody's budget? And that is what money do I have coming in and what money is going out. And so while you have small spikes on gas price from the Iran conflict, you actually have 64% of people who are saying that they're living comfortably are fine right now. And so it doesn't necessarily match with the narrative

of the doom scroller narrative mainstream media saying that, you know, everybody is struggling right now. There are definitely people struggling, but it doesn't necessarily fit with the data we have in our polling and also the data that you see on wage growth right now. Now, when you say 64% of people report living comfortably, how does that number compare to say a few years ago or just the baseline for the American population as long as we've been looking at numbers like that? It's a good question, and it's not one that we have asked historically. We were really trying to dig into in our March national survey. what is the truth behind the, when people say affordability and cost of living? You know, God has blessed my family, but I still notice when things are getting more expensive, and we make different decisions as a family.

But we wanted to suss through what is the truth behind all of this? And that's why we asked the question in that way. Are you living comfortably? Are you doing okay and having to watch things? Be careful. Are you just getting by? Are you struggling to make ends meet? And we only had 15% of Americans say that they're struggling to make sense.

begins meet out of those response options. Although the fact remains, people are very concerned about affordability. What are the main pain points that people are talking about when it comes to prices? Well, one of the largest things that we've seen, at least prior to the Iran conflict, come out, is people are saying that it is the affordability of health insurance. That's one of the largest drivers of a concern that they have related to their own personal ability to afford their life. then secondarily comes in usually grocery prices, and then you start to see housing come in, and then usually after that it's gas.

I would imagine that with the large increase in gas prices in the last three weeks, that matrix has shifted itself. But I don't think that you're going to see it overtake groceries and health care costs as likely still the two largest impacts of people's ability to afford life. 60% of the

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on RASNN Now, you look at American opinions, but you also look at some polling in Europe. We've seen some reporting that affordability issues are affecting Europe and Canada as well. What are some of the interesting trends that you've been seeing across the pond? Well, they have a little bit different cost structure than we do because they pay a lot more in taxes. And so many of the things that we in America are used to paying for, like health insurance, are covered. But they pay higher taxes in that. they've not necessarily seen the same rise in grocery costs at the same rate that we've seen here in the U.S.

I actually just had some friends at my house last night from the Middle East, and she was telling me that she was surprised at how expensive groceries are here comparatively every time she comes back to the States. Now, that being said, they get hit by energy costs a lot more, and that goes all the way back to the Ukraine War. And so this is probably more acute on Europeans a change in the cost of gas and liquid natural gas, and other forms of energy, even more so than it is in the U.S. where we produce a massive amount of energy. And I think this is going to be an opportunity for American energy companies to shine and really build up and come out of this thing stronger, even with this minor blip in between. Now, I know you also look at political opinions and sentiment. How is the war affecting people's opinion of the Trump administration? It's pretty hard to move somebody's opinion of the Trump administration.

He is one of the hardest figures in America in the sense of you have a strong opinion, a very hard opinion one way or the other on Donald Trump. I think it's more so the sorting of who is interested or not interested in politics. So one thing that I spent last weekend doing was looking at our presidential exit poll by demographic group and comparing that to our most recent March national survey and trying to understand where have Republicans slipped in the syndrome from coming out, the national popular vote to being down a few points in the congressional generic ballot right now, and it is exclusively voters under the age of 55. It is almost exclusively voters making under $75,000 a year, and it is heavily weighted to non-college educated voters. Now, outside of the age aspect of those three groups, you would normally say, okay, I'm describing Republicans, because Republican voters' base are more likely to be non-college educated,

more likely to be lower down the income scale, which is different from 30 years ago when Republicans were the party of the country club. And so it definitely is not, everything is bright and rosy right now for Republicans. They need to be acutely aware of how they're messaging this war and conflict, how they are talking about affordability,

the things specifically within affordability that they're talking about, really need to be laser-focused on younger, lower income, less educated Americans, because that's who's going to end up deciding this election. If they come back to Republicans, Republicans win. If they don't, it will be a failure of messaging of casting the vision for what giving them another two years is going to look like. Now, before you go, we've seen some interesting political trends in Europe just over the past month. There are indications that the immigration crisis is moving the needle in several countries,

the UK, Germany, and most recently, France. What happened in France this past week. Over the weekend in France, right-wing parties picked up a significant number of local elections, mayorship, city council control, which was not expected, including in the city of Nice, which is not a right-wing bastion. So if they're winning there, they're going to win elsewhere in the country. The right is surging. And they're surging on the issue of immigration, which is exactly what searched the right-wing party in America in the 24 election. Now, does Nice have disproportionately more migrants just because of where it is geographically. Yeah.

It's on the southern coast, and that's where they're dropping off on the beaches there. So a political realignment, very much like what we saw along the Rio Grande Valley. But it's more like putting Miami on the Rio Grande Valley. The Rio Grande Valley is not well to do. Nice is well to do. Yeah, that's an interesting distinction. And of course, we did see a similar shift in Miami in 2024. Brent, thank you so much for coming on, and hopefully we'll have you back soon.

Hey, my pleasure. Good to see y'all. That was Brent Buchanan, founder and CEO of Signal Polling, and this has been a weekend edition of Morning Wire.