Morning Wire - Israeli Ceasefire Calls & Ukraine Peace Plans | 11.6.23

Episode Date: November 6, 2023

Israel continues to refuse requests for a ceasefire, U.S. and European officials push for peace in Ukraine, and multiple polls show former President Trump leading President Biden in several battleground states. Get the facts first with Morning Wire. Tommy John: Exclusive discount for our listeners at http://www.tommyjohn.com/Wire Black Rifle Coffee: Get 10% off your first order or Coffee Club subscription with code WIRE: https://www.blackriflecoffee.com/ Genucel: Exclusive discount for our listeners! https://genucel.com/WIRE Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Israel continues to hold firm against calls for a ceasefire as they grow more forceful abroad and here in the U.S. How does a thwarted terror attack in Texas relate to the war? And what's the latest on the American citizens trapped in Gaza? I'm Daily Wire, editor-in-chief John Bickley with Georgia Howe. It's Monday, November 6th, and this is Morning Wire. As the war in Ukraine approaches the two-year mark, officials in the U.S. and EU are secretly pushing for peace negotiations. And multiple polls show President Trump now holding strong leads in swing states over President Biden,

which demographics are moving the needle and what issues are driving them. Thanks for waking up with Morning Wire. Stay tuned. We have the news you need to know. A Palestinian man in Texas has been arrested after authorities say he was planning a terror attack against Jews. The news comes as Israel has rebuffed President Biden's calls for a humanitarian pause in their war on Hamas. and as pro-Palestinian and anti-Israel protesters took over D.C. Here with more is Daily Wire, Senior Editor Cabot Phillips. Cabot first, some chilling news over the weekend with these alleged terror plots. What do we know so far?

Well, we talked last week about warnings from the FBI that individuals inspired by Hamas might look to carry out terror attacks on American soil, especially against Jews. And in the last few days, those fears have unfortunately proven well-placed. Over the weekend, we learned that the FBI had arrested a 20-year-old Palestinian man who had, quote, been studying, helped to build bombs and posted online about his support for killing Jews. The man initially entered the country legally as a tourist, but overstayed his visa. The FBI says they initially began investigating him after agents discovered video of the man at a shooting range practicing with semi-automatic rifles. Remember, given his illegal status,

he's not permitted to possess firearms. After further investigation, it was discovered the man had viewed, quote, detailed content posted by radical organizations. He'd referenced martyrdom online and was allegedly planning a specific terror attack in Houston, again targeting members of the Jewish community. At the moment, a judge has ordered that he be detained pending trial. Certainly, an alarming development, many people very grateful that law enforcement was able to intervene. Right. Now, we also saw some massive pro-Palestinian demonstrations over the weekend, including in D.C. Tell us what we saw.

Yeah, we've seen a large number of these protests throughout the last month, but Saturday saw perhaps the largest of them all, at least in the U.S. tens of thousands of protesters gathered in Washington to support the Palestinians and voice opposition to Israel. A large number of those gathered ended up descending on the White House, smearing red blood on the White House entrance,

and chanting slogans like genocide Joe and Biden, Biden, you are a liar, we demand a ceasefire. Secret Service did intervene at one point as protesters hung a large banner on the White House fence, and some climbed the outer wall waving Palestinian flags. But throughout the day, we did see thousands chanting from the river to the sea,

a slogan we're now hearing more and more often, which essentially calls for the complete elimination of Israel. Right. Overtly, anti-Israel and anti-Semitic displays seen there. Now, let's go to Israel. What's the latest on the ground there? So we talked last week about a shifting response from the White House. While President Biden is insisting he still supports Israel's goal of wiping out Hamas,

he's called for a, quote, humanitarian pause in the fighting to allow for more aid to enter the country. But over the weekend, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Nanyahu appeared to scoff at the idea and vowed to continue, quote, going full steam ahead in their war effort. He says any pause in the fighting will benefit Hamas and allow them time to regroup and launch another attack on Israeli civilians. After appearing in Israel over the weekend, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stopped by Jordan, where a number of Middle Eastern heads of state accused the U.S. of taking part in genocide against the Palestinians. Here he is speaking to the press in Jordan after those meetings. A ceasefire now would simply leave Hamas in place, able to regroup and repeat

what it did on October 7th. And you don't have to take my word for it just a few days ago. A senior Hamas official said that it was their intent to do October 7th again and again and again. Now we've also seen growing calls from the international community for civilians

trapped in Gaza to be allowed safe passage into Egypt. What are we seeing on that front? Yeah, it's important to remember there are still an estimated 600 Americans currently trapped in Gaza along with a thousand or so others with European citizenship. Western leaders have demanded that their citizens be allowed to flee into Egypt, but Hamas has so far blocked

their departure, saying they will not allow them to leave until others in need of medical aid are allowed to enter Egypt first. That's something Israel has mostly blocked at this point. As one Hamas spokesman put it, quote, no foreign passport holders will travel from the Gaza Strip until the coordinated evacuation of the wounded from hospitals in Gaza is allowed. But it's important to note, according to White House officials, when Hamas provided a list of civilians they wanted evacuated first, vetting showed that about a third of the names given were not civilians, but actually terrorists who'd been injured in battle. Not only did that anger Egypt, but for obvious reasons, it outraged the Biden administration, who said Moss is essentially using American citizens as leverage to transport their terrorists to safety.

Yeah, certainly can't allow for that risk. Kavana, thanks for reporting. Anytime. After 20 months of fighting in Ukraine, senior officials in the United States and Europe are now privately pushing for a negotiated peace. Here with the details is Daily Wire reporter Tim Pierce. So Tim, President Biden has long stood by his position that the U.S. will support Ukraine as long as it takes. Are we seeing softening in support? Publicly, the Biden administration remains fully committed to supporting Ukraine for as long as it takes.

Privately, though, it's a different story. Current and former high-ranking officials reportedly told NBC that America and her allies are considering a negotiated end to the war due to military and political, concerns. While there was strong support for Ukraine across a political spectrum after Russia invaded the country in 2022, continued funding for the war has become a hot-button issue. In August of last year, only 24% of Americans thought the U.S. was doing too much to help Ukraine. Last month, that number had climbed to 41%, including a majority of Republicans and a plurality of independence. Remember, the U.S. has sent more than $100 billion worth of aid to Ukraine since the war began,

more than any other nation. Critics have argued that between corruption in Ukraine and economic problems at home, the U.S. can't afford that expense, especially for a war that seems to have no end in sight. Right. Well, and without Western support, Ukraine's going to have an even harder time holding out. Exactly. As of now, even with the support of NATO and other U.S. allies like Japan, the war has largely ground to a stalemate.

Even the Ukrainians have conceded that point. In an interview with the economists last week, the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, General Valeri, Zalusini described the fight as a stalemate and said, quote, there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough. But President Vladimir Zelensky disputed those comments and rebuked his top general. Now, where does Russia stand in all this? Are they going to be willing to come to the table? It's hard to know for sure. In response to General Zilluzni's remarks, Russian spokesmen have come out and said the war isn't a stalemate and they expect to win. However, there are signs that the

Russian position isn't as strong as they say, while official casualty figures are much lower, U.S. intelligence suggests that the Russian military has lost well over 100,000 troops since the war began. Russia has begun a partial mobilization to replenish its forces, and there have been anecdotal reports of men being sent to the front lines with shoddy equipment and no training. Putin started the war and is politically tied to it. He may want to see this through to the end, but that increases the odds that things could turn against him at some point, including the threat of another coup, like the Wagner group's short-lived one. If he can walk away now with at least some of what he wants, that might be the safest option. Now, if a peace deal is on the horizon,

when can we expect it and what would it look like? This is all unofficial, but NBC claims that decision makers in Europe and the U.S. expect Ukraine to start pursuing a deal no later than the beginning of next year. The current lines of control would be the obvious starting point. As of now, Russia has occupied about 20 percent of Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbass region. They're unlikely to give all of that up. In return, Ukraine would probably want some sort of guarantee from the West to protect what's left of its territory. Whether that involves full NATO membership or some other defensive pact will likely be a major sticking point. Neither Ukraine or Russia have signed on any of this, but that's the opening pitch. Well, I have to imagine there's

at least some appetite from both sides for this. Tim, thanks for reporting. Thanks for having me. A poll this weekend from the New York Times shows Donald Trump surging in several key battleground states in a potential general election matchup with President Joe Biden. Here to discuss what this new shock poll from The Times tells us about the state of the race is Daily Wire contributor David Marcus. So first off, can you walk us through the numbers here? How good a poll was this for Trump? Morning, John. So the state's in question here, all of which Trump lost in 2020 are Nevada, where Trump leads 52 to 41%, Georgia at 49 to 43, Arizona at 49 to 44, and Michigan, where Trump boasts a five-point lead. at 48 to 43. Now, this is just one poll, but it's a big poll from the paper Democrats take the most seriously,

and it aligns with some general trends that we're seeing. This is a harrowing harbinger for the Biden campaign and the Democrat Party in general. The bottom line is that were he to lose all four of these, Biden's path to 270 electoral votes and the second term becomes narrow to non-existent. And I think what's scariest for team Biden here is that, He's not just losing. He's losing by a lot. Again, we should pause here for the caveat that one poll is only one poll, but there are certainly no polls out there right now showing the reverse. So this is something of a thunderbolt. Right, it is. As you say, this isn't the only positive survey for Trump of late, who's been doing a lot better, particularly among younger and minority voters. Is this more about Trump having a growing appeal to these groups or Biden just being historically unpopular? Look, I think it's both, but yeah, the numbers among voters under 35 have tightened considerably.

Despite a lot of focus on that cohort from the Biden administration, includes, of course, attempts to forgive student debt and hiring a horde of young TikTok influencers who supposedly hold the keys to Gen Z's heart. But look, young people also feel inflation. Young people also see decay in our cities in a rising crime. What they aren't seeing is a path to the kind of personal financial stability that they need to start their lives. And now, Biden is also dealing with the fact that his support of Israel is not shared by a majority of young voters. A post-Hamas-attack-Quinniac poll found that only 32%

of those between 18 and 35 support Israel's response as opposed to 58% of those over 50. Right. Now, you bring up Israel when it comes to Middle East policy, one of these swing states really stands out. That's Michigan, which is home to a very large Arab Muslim population. It's also home to Representative Rashida Taleb, Biden's most vocal critic on this issue going so far as accusing him of condoning genocide. How is this increasingly bitter Democrat divide over Israel impacting Biden? How big a problem is it for him? That's a huge problem. I mean, Telib is all but said that if Biden continues his support of Israel in the conflict, that Arab voters will abandon him and cost him Michigan. Over the last week or so, we've seen efforts

from the White House to appease those on the far left flank like Talib with a national strategy to combat Islamophobia and a call for what they're calling humanitarian pauses in the conflict. But those efforts show no signs of swaying a far left that seems far happier chanting from the river to the sea and glory to the martyrs than looking for cautious compromise. Joe Biden might have to make a choice. Israel or Michigan? Right. Did this recent polling increase calls for Biden to step back and allow somebody else to run or for a big name Democrat to offer a challenge to him? To some degree, you saw a lot of this from Never Trump former Republicans like Bill Crystal and Alyssa Farah Griffin, among others. But these are not public figures who have any major sway over Democrat voters or arguably anyone else.

What we haven't seen are calls from major figures in the party to replace Biden. But it's very likely, John, that if such pressure exists or comes to exist from inside the party, we'll never see it publicly, at least until long after. As they would want it to be presented as Biden's own personal and selfless choice to fall on his sword. Right. And as for that, no signs of that yet. Dave, thanks for coming on. Thanks for having me. Thanks for waking up with us.

We'll be back later this afternoon with more news you need to know.