Morning Wire - South China Sea: The Flashpoint No One’s Paying Attention To

Episode Date: April 19, 2026

China is ramping up pressure on its neighbors, expanding its presence, and testing U.S. alliances — all while the world looks away. In this episode, naval warfare expert Brent Sadler explains what��s happening, why it matters, and how this slow-moving crisis could become a major global conflict. Get the facts first with Morning Wire.- - -Ep. 2741- - -Wake up with new Morning Wire merch: https://bit.ly/4lIubt3- - -Today's Sponsors:Alliance Defending Freedom - Visit https://JoinADF.com/WIRE or text 'WIRE' to 83848 to learn more.Hello Fresh - Go to https://HelloFresh.com/morningwire10fm now to Get 10 Free meals + Free Nutribullet® Ultra Plus+ 2-in-1 Compact Kitchen System ($189.99 value) on your 3rd box.- - -Privacy Policy: https://www.dailywire.com/privacymorning wire,morning wire podcast,the morning wire podcast,Georgia Howe,John Bickley,daily wire podcast,podcast,news podcast Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

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Trouve of little enterprises like on our own.com. Tension in the South China Sea has been overshadowed by what's going on in the Mideast, but there's been some major developments in recent weeks that could prove consequential for the region and the globe. In this episode, we speak to a naval warfare expert about the latest strategic moves by China and other key players in the sea and how it could impact

us here in the U.S. I'm Daily Wire, executive editor John Bickley with Georgia Howl. This is a weekend edition of Morning Wire. I want to tell you about our friends and aligns defending freedom. ADF is a Christian legal ministry dedicated to advancing free speech, religious freedom, the sanctity of life, parental rights, and God's design for marriage and family. They've scored huge legal victories like helping to topple Roe v. Wade and securing a landmark free speech win at the Supreme Court on behalf of graphic designer Lori Smith. And they're fighting some of our culture's most pressing issues, from the protection of women's sports to stopping male order abortion drugs. ADF relies on the generous support of people like you to protect freedom in the

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Go to hellofresh.com slash morning wire 10 FM now to get 10 free meals plus free neutral bullet ultraplice 2&1 compact kitchen system, a $189.99 value on your third box. Free mail is applied as a discount on the first box. New subscribers only varies by plan. Disclaimer, must order the third box by May 31st, 2026. Joining us now is Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow for naval warfare and advanced technology at the Heritage Foundation. Brent, thank you so much for coming on. Oh, thank you for having me on your show again. So a lot of this has been going on under the radar as we sit at the top of the show.

What is the situation now in the South China Sea? Yes, I mean, despite all of the attention that sucks up all of the... the attention in the Persian Gulf or even in the Caribbean against Venezuela and the drug narco cartels out there, there has been a steady and non-relenting pressure campaign by the Chinese Communist Party on its neighbors in the South China Sea. And again, a lot of people are not surprised about Taiwan. But the real action is what's happening around Scarborough-Scholl. The Philippine feature, it's not really an island that's about 130 miles away from Luzon, the main island in the north of the Philippines, and effectively the Chinese have taken it over. And they have been

setting up to build land reclamation and another man-made base like they did back with a lot of shock in 2013 through 15, a little further to the south. But Scarborough Shoals, where it's at right now. Remind us, back in 2013 and 2015, what was the response from the international community to these actions from China? Limited and very modest, to say the least. And that, was very counterproductive because the Chinese started signaling in 2013 that they were going to do land reclamation, but no one in D.C., most importantly, no one in D.C. took serious notice or to pushback, either diplomatically or even, you know, through the embassy. What in our partners in the region trying to take our cue from us realized this was the era of a rebalance to the Asia

Pacific back in 2012, the big defense strategic guidance that came out on that. our partners in the region were we're still seeing China as a partner, not as a threat. And so it was a very muddled diplomatic messaging, and it was very, you know, very weak response. So the Chinese accelerated. They built up bases, even though they promised in the Rose Garden between Xi Jinping and the President Obama that he wasn't going to do that. We know the Chinese reneged on that. And they built very rapidly bases in places like Fiery Cross that is a massive airfield,

missiles, radars, listening equipment, etc., to allow the Chinese to maintain a naval presence that bullies all their neighbors as they try to exercise what they think is their right to possess, not just simply access, but possess the seafloor resources, the fish, and the water itself in the South China Sea writ large. All right, so here we are now, over a decade later. Has the international community learned from what took place back in 2013 and 2015? are the actions from the U.S. and its allies different in the region? So the Chinese behavior has changed a little bit in the last year

because they're getting much more forceful pushback. They were getting it even during the tail end, it started at the tail end of Trump's first term. It carried through in the Biden administration, to be very, very honest, but it didn't elevate. But now with world events, the second term of President's Trump's administration, I think the Chinese have a different risk calculation. So you're seeing where in the past,

they would use repurposed fishing fleet vessels, the maritime militia, to do the lion's share of the dirty work at sea, a backstop with their Chinese Coast Guard. You're starting to see increasingly than bringing in their naval vessels. And this is escalatory, and it is a change of tactic. But the biggest strategic change is really to the Philippine government because now they are videotaping, they're recording aggressively, every interaction. they are not just responding, but they're actively probing and going out to what are their features, their islands, their islets that they own to try to impose their sovereignty over their own land. And so the Chinese are having to play defense for the first time in this maritime contest that's been going on for 30-plus years, actually longer, but the last 30 years very intensely.

So is it fair to say the situation between the Philippines and China is reaching a break? point in as soon as, say, the next few weeks or months, or would you say not really? I'm not sure I could say it's going to come to a head, but we are about to enter into another period of time where the tensions are going to ratchet up. In the summertime, the Chinese PLA, the Liberation Army, does massive exercises, joint fires, their Air Force, their rocket forces, their Navy out of the Southern Theater. And this is based out in the South China Sea and Hainan Island, major naval bases and air bases. And so as that massed naval activity picks up, you can expect that there's going to be a reaction or an intent by Beijing to try to push the boundaries. This also would

come on the tail end of a summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping in May if that stays. So underlying whatever message they want to send in that summit, they would probably have a chance to do with a lot of military force in the South China Sea. So breaking point no. High tensions, big risk, yes. Now, just in general, for people who are not aware of the situation over there, why is this area so important and also why is it so volatile? Yeah, so a couple of things. One, the next major war that's probably going to involve the United States directly

is going to be a fight over the future of Taiwan. And there's a lot of reasons why that is inescapable if the Chinese decide to do it. Namely, there's 50 to 80,000 American citizens that will start to be killed the first day that the Chinese go, you know, start kinetic operations and bombing. So it'll become politically unavoidable. In order for that to happen successfully from the Chinese military planning perspective, it's not simply the control of the Taiwan Strait. It's also control of the southern approaches through the South China Sea in order to protect their vast southern coastline from American attack that could interdict and basically overwhelm and destroy their invasion attempt

from Taiwan. So the South China Sea is a realm for military conflict. But right now in this new kind of Cold War era that we're in, you've got a lot of fungibility. You've got allies, treaty ally, the Philippines, a mutual defense treaty that the United States has. So if the Chinese attack the Philippines, we're at war. We don't have that with the others, but Vietnam is kind of an important player. They've grown much close to the United States as our interest pushing back on China and the South China Sea a line. The same is true with Malaysia that needs to go out further for economic reasons for oil exploration. Their federal budget is dependent on those revenue streams, but the Chinese are styming it. So eventually the Malaysians know they've got to go into the so-called

nine dash line if they're going to stay economically viable. And so they also see that the opportunity is pushing them or their interest is pushing them for a more forceful stand against the Chinese. take a note. So the tensions are picking up. I would say we're getting to a, not a, not a, not a, breaking point, but we're going to have a question point, a deciding point here in the summer, I think. And then as for Taiwan, again, remind our listeners why Taiwan is such a key target, an acquisition target for China. Yeah. So for the Chinese Communist Party, it's about legitimacy to their people for ever since the Tiananmen Square massacre in June of 1989, they've, they've shifted legitimacy to, we will provide you richer and better prosperity, just see to us all of your

personal liberties and freedoms. And that bargain has been working until fairly recently, and Xi Jinping has been clamping down. So that gives them the other argument of legitimacy. We're the only ones that are going to be able to reunify China and end this foreign domination. Those are their words, not mine, because there's a lot that historically is incorrect in their narrative. But to them, failing to unifier in the Civil War with the Kuomontang and basically forcefully bring Taiwan back into the fold means the death of the Chinese Communist Party. It's arguable if that actually is what's going to happen, but that's their thinking. The other part of this is that with Taiwan as an exemplar of a Chinese democratic society that has a

very vibrant, free, and open market. It's a huge market player with the United States and the globe. It sends a signal that a communist China is not the only way forward for Chinese people. So it is in many ways what Berlin was to the Soviet Union. Taiwan is to Beijing today. Then there's also the economic incentive of taking full control of Taiwan, correct? So a couple of things, one, is to be very careful about mirroring American values or what we would think. We're trying to figure out and anticipate the Chinese Communist Party's behavior. Prosperity for their people is not really the objective. It's party's survival and party dominance. And so if their economy takes a hit or their people's quality of life deteriorates,

as long as they can maintain party control, they don't care. It's a very cold, calculating communist system. And so we have to kind of judge and moderate our thinking on that. Economically, for Beijing, the military cost, the economic cost is worth taking it to settle this civil war that's been unsettled since 1949 in their mind. Militarily, here's where it's very dangerous for Western interest. When the Chinese have Taiwan, mainland Chinese, you know, if they were to do that, now they have unfettered access to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean, they will then be

encouraged because now they're defensive perimeter and they'll feel compelled to start to press further out more directly. They're military, their economic, their political, diplomatic. It's already happening if you look at the Solomon Islands with the secret security pact a few years ago that was uncovered. That will then go into hyperdrive across the Pacific because the Chinese will view, okay, now we have to protect Taiwan. These Western powers are our enemies. Where next do we need to worry about? And it will increase. It won't diminish. It will actually increase the likelihood of confrontation and the challenges to American and our Western aligned thinking. So it's a much bigger problem when dealing with this very committed communist worldview.

Final question. President Trump has made clear he's not going to be pushed around by other countries. He's been far more aggressive than we've seen with past presidents like Biden and Obama. What do you expect to see from President Trump's administration over the course of the next few months? So the summit has my attention because the Chinese are trying to ensure that they meet minimum expectations. And if we go into that summit and don't hold firm, we could give them more than they deserve. That's more of my concern in the summit and the near term. And that's been not because of the Trump administration, it's been my experience, Democrat, Republican administrations

for many cycles going way back. The potential for lucrative trade deals, near-term gains, without strategic thinking. I would say I'm encouraged because when you look and you connect the dots of Venezuela to Iran, to the assault on the dark shipping all over the world, which is really Russian and trying to put a clamp on the Ukraine war, that strategic thinking

informing all of that, sets a very strong context and framing to get a lot out of this summit if we so choose to with China. And again, the Chinese are the ones that we have to deter. They're the ones that we need to avoid a war with because the cost of that is just so astronomical. So I'd imagine continued very explicit, easy to understand language. Some would say not diplomatic, but having been a military diplomat and having to translate more polite American English speaking into language where English is the second or third language, I will tell you that the straightforwardness that you see and you hear is appreciated by many from friend and foe overseas because you clearly understand where the president is.

Well, Trump's public negotiation approach is definitely one of the markers of his presidency. Love him or hate him, it's proven at times to be very effective. Thank you so much for joining us. Oh, no, thank you. Have a great day. That was Brent Sadler of the Heritage Foundation, and this has been a weekend edition of Morning Wire.