South China Sea: The Flashpoint No One’s Paying Attention To
00:0060% of the vans on Amazoncome to vander independentlike Sac Magic.Hello, here Camille of Sackmagic.Our compresses, chode-fraud are fabricedin Quebec, and our presence onon Amazon, enlarge our clienteleto world entire.
00:11Trouve of little enterpriseslike on our own.com.Tension in the South China Sea has beenovershadowed by what's going on in the Mideast,but there's been some major developments in recent weeksthat could prove consequential for the region and the globe.In this episode, we speak to a naval warfare expertabout the latest strategic moves by China and other key players in the sea and how it could impact
00:37us here in the U.S. I'm Daily Wire, executive editor John Bickley with Georgia Howl. This is a weekendedition of Morning Wire. I want to tell you about our friends and aligns defending freedom.ADF is a Christian legal ministry dedicated to advancing free speech, religious freedom,the sanctity of life, parental rights, and God's design for marriage and family. They've scoredhuge legal victories like helping to topple Roe v. Wade and securing a landmark free speechwin at the Supreme Court on behalf of graphic designer Lori Smith. And they're fighting some of ourculture's most pressing issues, from the protection of women's sports to stopping male orderabortion drugs. ADF relies on the generous support of people like you to protect freedom in the
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01:55ever leaving home.It's exciting, effortless, and takes all the stress out of cooking.No recipe hunting, no ingredient sourcing, just everything you need delivered straight toyour door.Our producer Brandon loves the convenience of HelloFresh.The recipes are easy to make and easy to eat because, well, they're delicious.You'll get pre-portion ingredients like lemon grass, gocha jang, and curry paste, so there's no guesswork, just great taste.Skip the wait for takeout and have international ingredients delivered straight to your door, because in the end, nothing hits like home cooking.
02:22Go to hellofresh.com slash morning wire 10 FM now to get 10 free meals plus free neutral bullet ultraplice 2&1 compact kitchen system, a $189.99 value on your third box.Free mail is applied as a discount on the first box.New subscribers only varies by plan.Disclaimer, must order the third box by May 31st, 2026.Joining us now is Brent Sadler, a senior research fellow for naval warfare and advanced technology at the Heritage Foundation.Brent, thank you so much for coming on.Oh, thank you for having me on your show again.So a lot of this has been going on under the radar as we sit at the top of the show.
02:58What is the situation now in the South China Sea?Yes, I mean, despite all of the attention that sucks up all of the...the attention in the Persian Gulf or even in the Caribbean against Venezuela and the drug narcocartels out there, there has been a steady and non-relenting pressure campaign by the ChineseCommunist Party on its neighbors in the South China Sea. And again, a lot of people are not surprisedabout Taiwan. But the real action is what's happening around Scarborough-Scholl. The Philippinefeature, it's not really an island that's about 130 miles away from Luzon, the main islandin the north of the Philippines, and effectively the Chinese have taken it over. And they have been
03:39setting up to build land reclamation and another man-made base like they did back with a lot ofshock in 2013 through 15, a little further to the south. But Scarborough Shoals, where it's at right now.Remind us, back in 2013 and 2015, what was the response from the international community to theseactions from China? Limited and very modest, to say the least. And that,was very counterproductive because the Chinese started signaling in 2013 that they were goingto do land reclamation, but no one in D.C., most importantly, no one in D.C. took serious noticeor to pushback, either diplomatically or even, you know, through the embassy. What in our partnersin the region trying to take our cue from us realized this was the era of a rebalance to the Asia
04:28Pacific back in 2012, the big defense strategic guidance that came out on that.our partners in the region were we're still seeing China as a partner, not as a threat.And so it was a very muddled diplomatic messaging, and it was very, you know, very weak response.So the Chinese accelerated.They built up bases, even though they promised in the Rose Garden between Xi Jinping and the PresidentObama that he wasn't going to do that.We know the Chinese reneged on that.And they built very rapidly bases in places like Fiery Cross that is a massive airfield,
05:01missiles, radars, listening equipment, etc., to allow the Chinese to maintain a naval presencethat bullies all their neighbors as they try to exercise what they think is their right to possess,not just simply access, but possess the seafloor resources, the fish, and the water itselfin the South China Sea writ large.All right, so here we are now, over a decade later.Has the international community learned from what took place back in 2013 and 2015?are the actions from the U.S. and its allies different in the region?So the Chinese behavior has changed a little bit in the last year
05:39because they're getting much more forceful pushback.They were getting it even during the tail end,it started at the tail end of Trump's first term.It carried through in the Biden administration, to be very, very honest,but it didn't elevate.But now with world events, the second term of President's Trump's administration,I think the Chinese have a different risk calculation.So you're seeing where in the past,
06:01they would use repurposed fishing fleet vessels, the maritime militia, to do the lion's share of the dirty work at sea, a backstop with their Chinese Coast Guard.You're starting to see increasingly than bringing in their naval vessels.And this is escalatory, and it is a change of tactic.But the biggest strategic change is really to the Philippine government because now they are videotaping, they're recording aggressively, every interaction.they are not just responding, but they're actively probing and going out to what are their features,their islands, their islets that they own to try to impose their sovereignty over their own land.And so the Chinese are having to play defense for the first time in this maritime contestthat's been going on for 30-plus years, actually longer, but the last 30 years very intensely.
06:54So is it fair to say the situation between the Philippines and China is reaching a break?point in as soon as, say, the next few weeks or months, or would you say not really?I'm not sure I could say it's going to come to a head, but we are about to enter into anotherperiod of time where the tensions are going to ratchet up. In the summertime, the ChinesePLA, the Liberation Army, does massive exercises, joint fires, their Air Force, their rocket forces,their Navy out of the Southern Theater. And this is based out in the South China Sea and Hainan Island,major naval bases and air bases. And so as that massed naval activity picks up, you can expect thatthere's going to be a reaction or an intent by Beijing to try to push the boundaries. This also would
07:39come on the tail end of a summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping in May if that stays.So underlying whatever message they want to send in that summit, they would probably have achance to do with a lot of military force in the South China Sea. So breaking point no.High tensions, big risk, yes.Now, just in general, for people who are not aware of the situation over there,why is this area so important and also why is it so volatile?Yeah, so a couple of things.One, the next major war that's probably going to involve the United States directly
08:12is going to be a fight over the future of Taiwan.And there's a lot of reasons why that is inescapable if the Chinese decide to do it.Namely, there's 50 to 80,000 American citizens that will start to be killedthe first day that the Chinese go, you know, start kinetic operations and bombing. So it'll becomepolitically unavoidable. In order for that to happen successfully from the Chinese military planningperspective, it's not simply the control of the Taiwan Strait. It's also control of the southernapproaches through the South China Sea in order to protect their vast southern coastline fromAmerican attack that could interdict and basically overwhelm and destroy their invasion attempt
08:51from Taiwan. So the South China Sea is a realm for military conflict. But right now in this newkind of Cold War era that we're in, you've got a lot of fungibility. You've got allies,treaty ally, the Philippines, a mutual defense treaty that the United States has. So if the Chineseattack the Philippines, we're at war. We don't have that with the others, but Vietnam is kind of animportant player. They've grown much close to the United States as our interest pushing backon China and the South China Sea a line. The same is true with Malaysia that needs to go out furtherfor economic reasons for oil exploration. Their federal budget is dependent on those revenue streams,but the Chinese are styming it. So eventually the Malaysians know they've got to go into the so-called
09:40nine dash line if they're going to stay economically viable. And so they also see that the opportunityis pushing them or their interest is pushing them for a more forceful stand against the Chinese.take a note. So the tensions are picking up. I would say we're getting to a, not a, not a, not a,breaking point, but we're going to have a question point, a deciding point here in the summer,I think. And then as for Taiwan, again, remind our listeners why Taiwan is such a key target,an acquisition target for China. Yeah. So for the Chinese Communist Party, it's about legitimacyto their people for ever since the Tiananmen Square massacre in June of 1989, they've, they've shiftedlegitimacy to, we will provide you richer and better prosperity, just see to us all of your
10:28personal liberties and freedoms. And that bargain has been working until fairly recently,and Xi Jinping has been clamping down. So that gives them the other argument of legitimacy.We're the only ones that are going to be able to reunify China and end this foreign domination.Those are their words, not mine, because there's a lot that historically is incorrect in theirnarrative. But to them, failing to unifier in the Civil War with the Kuomontang and basicallyforcefully bring Taiwan back into the fold means the death of the Chinese Communist Party.It's arguable if that actually is what's going to happen, but that's their thinking.The other part of this is that with Taiwan as an exemplar of a Chinese democratic society that has a
11:17very vibrant, free, and open market. It's a huge market player with the United States and theglobe. It sends a signal that a communist China is not the only way forward for Chinese people.So it is in many ways what Berlin was to the Soviet Union. Taiwan is to Beijing today.Then there's also the economic incentive of taking full control of Taiwan, correct?So a couple of things, one, is to be very careful about mirroring American values or what we wouldthink. We're trying to figure out and anticipate the Chinese Communist Party's behavior.Prosperity for their people is not really the objective. It's party's survival and party dominance.And so if their economy takes a hit or their people's quality of life deteriorates,
12:04as long as they can maintain party control, they don't care. It's a very cold, calculatingcommunist system.And so we have to kind of judge and moderate our thinking on that.Economically, for Beijing, the military cost, the economic cost is worth taking it to settlethis civil war that's been unsettled since 1949 in their mind.Militarily, here's where it's very dangerous for Western interest.When the Chinese have Taiwan, mainland Chinese, you know, if they were to do that, now theyhave unfettered access to the Philippine Sea and the wider Pacific Ocean, they will then be
12:45encouraged because now they're defensive perimeter and they'll feel compelled to start to pressfurther out more directly. They're military, their economic, their political, diplomatic. It's alreadyhappening if you look at the Solomon Islands with the secret security pact a few years ago that wasuncovered. That will then go into hyperdrive across the Pacific because the Chinese will view,okay, now we have to protect Taiwan. These Western powers are our enemies. Where next do we need to worryabout? And it will increase. It won't diminish. It will actually increase the likelihood ofconfrontation and the challenges to American and our Western aligned thinking. So it's a muchbigger problem when dealing with this very committed communist worldview.
13:30Final question. President Trump has made clear he's not going to be pushed around by othercountries. He's been far more aggressive than we've seen with past presidents like Biden andObama. What do you expect to see from President Trump's administration over the course of the nextfew months? So the summit has my attention because the Chinese are trying to ensure that theymeet minimum expectations. And if we go into that summit and don't hold firm, we could give themmore than they deserve. That's more of my concern in the summit and the near term. And that's been notbecause of the Trump administration,it's been my experience, Democrat, Republican administrations
14:10for many cycles going way back.The potential for lucrative trade deals,near-term gains, without strategic thinking.I would say I'm encouraged because when you lookand you connect the dots of Venezuela to Iran,to the assault on the dark shipping all over the world,which is really Russian and trying to put a clampon the Ukraine war, that strategic thinking
14:34informing all of that, sets a very strong context and framing to get a lot out of this summitif we so choose to with China. And again, the Chinese are the ones that we have to deter.They're the ones that we need to avoid a war with because the cost of that is just soastronomical. So I'd imagine continued very explicit, easy to understand language. Some wouldsay not diplomatic, but having been a military diplomat and having to translate more polite AmericanEnglish speaking into language where English is the second or third language,I will tell you that the straightforwardness that you see and you hear is appreciated by manyfrom friend and foe overseas because you clearly understand where the president is.
15:21Well, Trump's public negotiation approach is definitely one of the markers of his presidency.Love him or hate him, it's proven at times to be very effective.Thank you so much for joining us.Oh, no, thank you. Have a great day.That was Brent Sadler of the Heritage Foundation, and this has been a weekend edition of Morning Wire.
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