Motley Fool Hidden Gems Investing - Alphabet, Amazon, and Facebook, Oh My!
Episode Date: July 28, 2017Facebook surprises. Alphabet and Amazon slip. Baidu rises. And McDonald's delivers. Our analysts talk about those stories and weigh in on earnings from Chipotle, Electronic Arts, McDonald's, and Starb...ucks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices
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From Fool Global Headquarters, this is Motley Fool Money.
It's the Motley Fool Money radio show. I'm Chris Hilton.
Joining me in studio this week from Million Dollar Portfolio, Jason Moser and Matt Argesinger,
and from Supernova, David Kretzmann. Good to see you as always, gentlemen.
Hey!
Such a big week for earnings news. We have decided to forego having a guest.
We're going to dip into the Fool mailbag, and as always, we'll give an inside look at the stocks on our radar.
But we begin with the social network.
shares of Facebook hitting a new all-time high this week after second quarter profits
came in higher than expected. Matty, they're just printing money over there at Facebook.
They absolutely are, Chris. Advertising revenue of 47% to $9.2 billion. I mean,
47% growth rate at this stage is just incredible. And remember, 87% of that now is mobile. And as
we talked about earlier this week, years ago, we just said, there's no way Facebook's going
to make money on mobile. They can't do it. And they are, and they're making most of their money
on mobile these days. Operating profits were up 47% as well. The number, to me, daily active
users up 17% to $1.3 billion. I know on the monthly active basis, they've crossed that
$2 billion mark, but the daily active users to $1.3 billion is just incredible. I think
that's where advertisers are probably going to see, that's what they're excited about,
that's where they're getting the ROI from. So, just outstanding numbers for Facebook
all around.
Yeah, David, you think about mobile advertising, and it's basically a duopoly between Google
and Facebook.
Yeah, they're the two giants in the space. And that probably will continue for quite some time.
I think the biggest question mark with Facebook going forward is, what will they do about
decelerating revenue with their core platform, which they've been warning for over a year now.
And obviously, this quarter's results, as Matt pointed out, still stellar. But at some point,
they're going to need to find other areas to grow that top line, whether it's Instagram,
which seems to be going well so far, but then Messenger and WhatsApp are both, I think,
have bigger question marks on them as far as monetization.
Well, think about Facebook's position. If you're an advertiser, you're literally
an idiot if you're not spending money on that platform. That's such a great competitive
advantage right there. That really is Google and Facebook in a nutshell. Those are the
two places where the eyeballs are going. I think, furthermore, when you look at what
Facebook did with Instagram, and we talk about this every quarter, that Instagram acquisition
was obviously sheer genius in hindsight. Now, sort of the flip side of that coin, though,
I don't know that necessarily, I'm not necessarily convinced that WhatsApp or Messenger are going
to bear the same kind of fruit. We're seeing at least this, they're getting the ball rolling
and putting some ads in Messenger. WhatsApp, it doesn't sound like it's terribly unique,
there are other imitators out there. And that was a very, very big chunk of change they
dropped on WhatsApp, too. So, at the end of the day, it's probably not going to matter
anyway, and that's really just the beauty of this position where size and financial
resources are a competitive advantage indeed. I'm just going to be very interested to see
over the course of the next five and 10 years if Messenger and WhatsApp sort of bear the
same fruit that Facebook and now Instagram are currently bearing.
Yeah, I think in the near term, it's really all about video right now. If they're
going to try to have a lot of the same success that YouTube's been having over in Alphabet,
that's where the big investment dollars go. But to Dave's point, Messenger and WhatsApp,
going to be key for them to try to monetize those. And the idea of putting ads in front
of people's texts on their phone, I mean, it just seems like a very, very hard place
to work. But we've seen it work in China and other places, and so that's probably Facebook's
next move.
Amazon's second quarter report featured a lot more investing than Wall Street was
probably hoping for. Profits came in much lower than expected. Jason, the stock dipped
after the report on Friday. Previously in the week, it had hit a new all-time high, though.
Sure. It's been a wonderful run for a wonderful business. Every once in a while,
Amazon reminds us that they have that ability to just spend, spend, spend. And that's what
they're doing in fulfillment, in content, really, and it's all about building out that
Prime value offering. It's growing Prime members and giving us, as consumers, more value with
that relationship. And so, every few quarters, you see the market take a step back and rethink
this for a second, and then quickly come back to their senses and say, listen, if anybody's
going to get in there and compete with Amazon on any meaningful level, it's not just capital
you need. A lot of time has gone by. I don't know that there's any way that any sort of
other retail presence out there can catch up. And I think proof of that is that we're
seeing more and more retail partners deciding to partner up with Amazon versus trying to
compete with them. I mean, Nike, for example. It's like the old saying goes, if you can't
beat them, join them. And I think a lot of retail presences out there are becoming that
realization today. Amazon Web Services, still an incredible business. Margins came down
a little bit in that side of the business as they build that out. And certainly, competition
on that front is growing with Microsoft and Google. But all in all, another successful
quarter, 25% top-line growth. This is a beast of a company. We own a million-dollar portfolio,
and we're going to keep on holding it for many years to come.
Yeah, to go back to Facebook for a second, and this didn't get a lot of headlines in
terms of their latest quarter, but one of the things when you dig into that conference
call for Facebook is, they're starting to tighten up their expenses a little bit, tightening
the range of how much they're going to spend. And on the flip side, you look at Amazon,
this quarter they spent more on CapEx than Microsoft and Google combined.
It's incredible, but it's that 25% top-line growth. I mean, how many companies
that are 22 years old now can grow at that rate. It's phenomenal. I think there's a straight
line to $30 billion in free cash flow for this business in five years, really. The quickest
way to get there is by keep growing the top line. I hope investors get that. I know we
get that at The Fool. It's also the nature of these two businesses.
They're very, very polar opposites in the sense that Amazon is spending all of this
money trying to make our experience as customers better and better every day. Facebook is kind
of stuck in this vortex of trying to figure out how to make your experience less miserable
while still making some money. I'm not saying this all, I say all in quotes. It's an ad
company, right? It's not like people go to Facebook saying, hey, I wonder what great
ads are playing today. It's a delicate balance for them. Amazon doesn't have to worry about
that balance. The beauty of all of the money that they invest is, it continues to make
consumers' lives better. And, on the flip side of that coin, it makes those third-party
customers of Amazon's retail network, the people that are selling us stuff, it makes
their lives better. So, they win on both sides of the coin. They're a tremendous advantage
to their model. Yeah, and I think it's actually telling
that the stock is only down 2% or 3% on this news. I think, a couple of years ago, if Amazon
had reported a quarter like this, where they're heavily reinvesting in the business, Wall
Street wasn't so forgiving with that. But Jeff Bezos, unfortunately, I hope he enjoyed
his few hours in the sun as the richest man on the planet. Maybe he'll still make it there
one day. He'll get there real soon, real soon.
Shares of Alphabet down a bit this week. Second quarter revenue rose 21%. But, David,
this is a search company, and the cost per click is going in the wrong direction.
Yeah, they're essentially making less revenue per click, but the number of total clicks are
still going up. So, that's why their top line is going up. But they are seeing pressure on margins,
especially this quarter. Partly, that's due to the biggest growth contributors right now being
YouTube and mobile, where the cost per click is lower. But here's why I don't think that's
something investors should worry too much about. YouTube has 1.5 billion monthly active
viewers right now, and people watch an average of 60 minutes a day on their phones and tablets.
So, that's an incredibly valuable and engaged audience. I think they'll be able to crack
that code at some point down the road. They continue to test out different formats. They're
no longer running 30-second ads on YouTube. They're doing a lot of six-second bumper ads,
which seem to be more successful for a lot of brand advertisers on YouTube. So, when
We have such a vast and engaged audience, I'm not too worried about quarter-to-quarter
numbers like this.
If I send YouTube a check for $100, do you think they'll stop running those Groupon
ads?
I know you're not a fan of those, Chris. Maybe you can beat them out there.
They make me pine for the Trivago guy.
Another big day for Baidu. Second quarter profits for the Google of China came
in big, and shares of Baidu up more than 11% on Friday. Here's what stuns me, Matt. This
This is a company that is only, in terms of market cap, a $77 billion company. That seems
small, given how dominant they are.
It does seem very, very small. That's, I think, one of the most compelling things
about Baidu, because it's operating in a market that's conceivably bigger than Alphabet's,
and does virtually the same thing. This was a great quarter for Baidu. This is the first
time, really, that their businesses lapped the problems last year, when the Chinese government
was cracking down on some of their advertising customers because of the dodgy medical ads
that they were displaying in search. They've gotten past that issue now. They've tightened
up their advertising ranks. Really, what stood out to me was, revenue was up 14%, but the
number of advertisers was down 21%. The average revenue per advertiser was up 32%. They've
shrunk the advertising base, but it's obviously a more quality, more aligned advertiser base.
year high for the stock, I would just say that they're really doubling down on AI and
the search business, which is great, and video content, which I think is the right ways to
go. They've been investing a lot in food and travel and other things that just haven't
gained a lot of traction. But doubling down on video, especially, I think with iQiyi,
which is their Netflix-type service, that's going to be big for them. They recently signed
a licensing deal with Netflix for some of their content. I think that's a big area of
growth for Baidu. When you look at Alphabet, which has a market
cap of somewhere eight or nine times the size of Baidu. Is Baidu a more attractive proposition
for anyone who's thinking about investing in search?
I want to say so, but you've got to factor in the risk there. This past year
and a half, you've seen what operating in China can be like for a company like Baidu.
So you take that into account, I do think Baidu's growth rate should be higher than
Google Alphabet's over time, but it comes with a lot more risk.
Coming up, earnings from some of the biggest names in food and beverage.
Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
Welcome back to Motley Fool Money.
Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, and David Kretzmann.
Second quarter profits for Boston Beer Company came in much higher than expected,
sending shares of Boston Beer up more than 15% on Friday.
Jason, have you been doing your part to help boost sales this summer?
Always, always doing my part, Chris. You mentioned, the numbers they turned in
were higher than expected. This is a big pop for this stock today. I tell investors to
be very careful not to make the big leap to thinking everything is just back to just fine
with these guys. They grew the top line 1%. It wasn't like it was double-digit growth.
They didn't guide down. And I think that was a big deal. This past year has been really
a series of misses and revisions guiding downward as they just continue to be assaulted on all
fronts in this competitive craft beer market. And that's not going to stop. A lot of the
success for Boston Beer actually came from robust sales in the Twisted Tea and the truly
spiked and sparkling Hard Seltzer categories. And those are relatively new. And so that's
neat to see the performance there, but I have a feeling this may take a turn with what we
saw with the Angry Orchard cider category. At some point, the novelty wears off, and
that comes back down to earth. I'm not trying to make it sound like it's all doom and gloom
for these guys. There's still plenty of competition out there and reasons to be concerned. By
the same token, it is a good business with a very strong brand. Jim Cook was very clear
on the call, they are going to continue investing in that brand. They saw a decent performance
from Sam Sommer at the beginning of the summer here, and it seems like it's carrying on over
through the remainder of the season here, which is good. That's a big seller for them.
And they narrowed their earnings range a little bit for the year, which raised the low end
of that guidance. So, it was a good quarter. It was a respectable quarter. Still plenty
of work to do. One of the things I thought was interesting
is that Jim Cook, also on the call, actually called out for the first time a slowdown in
the overall craft beer market. I think we've been hinting at that and seeing signs of it,
but seeing him call that out now, and I think one of our theses in MDP for a while was,
once the actual overall market slows down, that's when you'll see Boston Beer's strength
kind of shine through, and it'll be interesting to see if that actually happens.
Yeah, that really makes it difficult for those small operators to prosper at all,
because they just don't have the same cost structure advantage that Boston Beer does.
So there really is an advantage there in the production facility that they have.
Starbucks down big on Friday after the company's third quarter report. Revenue was light,
guidance was lowered, and Starbucks announced it is closing all of its Teavana stores.
Matty, I'm not selling my shares, but I totally understand why other people are selling their
shares. Right. I mean, guidance was the killer for one thing. I mean, they said for the full
year now, the revenue was going to come on the lower end of their 8% to 10% range. They also
lowered their EPS estimates. And yeah, closing the Teavana stores, they're still having some
bottlenecks with mobile ordering. So, there was just a lot of news out there saying, things
are okay at Starbucks, but not great, and certainly not really getting better.
But I'll point to the comps. I mean, there are 5% comps in the U.S. Investors were complaining
forever about not being below that number. The 7% higher comps in China, I thought, was
pretty strong. And the Teavana story is interesting. They're shuttering all the stores. This is
a business they bought for $620 million about five years ago, they're going to do about
$1.6 billion in branded Teavana sales in Starbucks stores. So, you could argue that, well, it's
kind of disappointing that this retail concept didn't really work out for Teavana, but certainly
the brand, it's creating value for Starbucks. Yeah, I think a lot of people will
point to that acquisition and say, oh yeah, see, we told you back when they did it, it
wasn't a good one. I mean, let's be very clear, that was not about that retail presence. That
was free if it worked out for them, but it was about getting that brand and expanding
that menu of offerings. You just look to the success of the Tazo tea brand to this point,
they're just doing the same thing with Teavana. Now they don't have to maintain this network
of stores and malls where traffic is basically doing nothing but declining anyway.
Speaking to Teavana, they also announced a partnership pretty recently with Anheuser-Busch
where they'll be rolling out prepared Teavana beverages. That's another lever they can pull
with that brand. One yellow flag that stuck out to me is that the number of rewards members
that they have in that loyalty program, has actually plateaued at $13.3 million. It's
the same number they had in the last quarter. Still up 8% year-over-year, but that's a number
I would hope they can keep ticking up steadily each quarter.
Shares of McDonald's hitting a new high this week after global same-store sales in the
second quarter grew more than 6.5%. David, they've got 37,000 locations. How are they
getting that kind of growth?
Steve Easterbrook, that's the short answer. He's breathed new life into the company since
he became CEO in 2015. And he's really done a lot to push the technological side of the business.
They're rolling out mobile order and pay to the majority of locations worldwide by the end of
this year. Delivery is promising. They did a pilot test with Uber Eats in January, and they found
that people who order McDonald's delivery, they end up paying close to two times the average order
size. So, they're expanding that pilot to 4,000 stores in the U.S. and Australia and other markets.
And then within the stores themselves, they're working with the franchisees to renovate the restaurants to the experience of the future, which includes adding some touchscreen kiosks in there and just adding different options as far as ordering goes.
So all these different initiatives seem to be driving more people to the stores.
It's working out well.
You know, it's interesting because we've seen this over the last couple of years and probably first and foremost with Panera Bread and Ron Schick's comment about the mosh pit.
and the move to mobile ordering. And it's one of those things, Jason, that you want to see
if you own any kind of a restaurant stock or a coffee stock, that sort of thing.
But they've got to execute on the back end. And so, this is good for McDonald's that they're
making this move, but I also hope they realize that they have a challenge in terms of throughput.
Well, there's no question. It adds another dynamic of labor, essentially, to that store that
they may not be fully prepared for. So, yeah, you're right not to make that leap to automatic
success. I mean, I think about this experience of the future, and this stuff's getting bandied
about like it's losing all meaning. But let's be very clear here. I mean, if we're talking
about experience of the future, I mean, we were talking about this back when Bojangles
was coming public, Chris. And I mean, you remember the experience of the future with
the Jangler, right? You go in there and there's a biscuit theater. You're watching them make
the biscuits, Chris. Now, that is the experience of the future.
Are you just bitter because we're not talking about Bojangles' quarter?
Oh, we'll talk about it.
Let's hit Chipotle real quick. We've got about a minute left. They came out with their second
quarter results. The stock was actually up slightly this week. But it kind of seems,
Matty, like investors are holding their breath with this stock, because it came down recently
with the incident in Virginia. And as a shareholder, I have to say, I'm still not
wild about the way Steve Ells, the CEO, talks about their food safety protocol.
Yeah, with a lot of things he's said, he's always touting what Chipotle's doing.
He's putting the company on a very high pedestal, but then you just see instances like this.
And I know, I think there's a bit of a media bias, which gets Chipotle kind of top of mind with everyone.
But again, this is a big setback.
I mean, yeah, it's one store, it's not related to their food, but we were just sort of seeing a pickup in same-store sales.
I can't imagine things are going to get better the rest of the year.
Don't underestimate queso. Possibly a national rollout coming mid-September.
I'm still bullish. I think Chipotle can turn this around.
Up next, we're not going to Las Vegas, but we will be talking about gaming stocks,
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Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio with Jason Moser, Matt Argesinger,
and David Kretzmann. If you needed more evidence that the war on cash is real, all you had to do
was look at PayPal's latest results. Second quarter revenue was up. Payment volume was up.
New accounts were up. Everything was up, Matty. It's all up. It's all been up for PayPal. Stock
price, too, this year. It's incredible. Revenue was up 18%. To me, the number that really stood
out was just the number of payment transactions growing $1.8 billion, 23% year-over-year.
Total payment volume hit $106 billion. That's the first time they've exceeded $100 billion
for PayPal. It's amazing. They also added, by the way, 6.5 million new customer accounts.
That's the largest quarterly gain in two years. Everything points to this network that PayPal
has. It's a two-sided network, which you have the customers, the users, and you have merchants.
They're all interacting and transacting more than ever before. PayPal now has partnerships
with virtually all the major credit card companies. It also deals with Apple, Samsung, and recently
signed a deal with Baidu to get into their digital wallets. PayPal is now pretty much
more available than it's ever been, and it's more popular than it's ever been. I don't
see that changing.
You mentioned the new accounts. I was surprised to learn they've got over 200
million people using their PayPal.
Right. And by the way, Venmo, which of course is their social payments platform,
their transactions there were up 100% year-over-year.
Electronic arts with another monster quarter. The video game makers' first quarter profit and
revenue up big thanks to high demand from some of their most popular titles. David,
where do you want to start? Well, they've produced a record $1.5 billion
free cash flow over the past year. And this is really due to digital and moving online.
Digital Knot makes up over 63% of their total sales,
and that's largely due to live services on their major titles,
whether you're talking about FIFA, Battlefield, The Sims, NBA Live, Madden.
So those live services are things like expansion packs
to expand the different maps and formats you can play in the game.
You can compete against other players live online.
And just to demonstrate the power of this shift to digital,
the last 12 months have been the best in Sims history,
And that's a franchise that launched in 2000.
So 17 years in, the Sims is doing better than ever due to digital.
So a lot of things to like here.
Players are more engaged when they compete against other players live.
And I think that lends itself well to the sports titles in EA's franchise, NBA Live,
FIFA, Madden.
So I think there's still a lot of room for them to expand going forward.
How are they doing in terms of managing their costs?
because I think one thing that never fails to get headlines every now and then is video game maker
X is spending, insert triple digit, hundreds, millions of dollars on a single game. And I think
for some investors, they look at that and they just immediately question, is that worth it?
Electronic arts actually has higher margins than Activision Blizzard, which for a long time was
the king as far as that goes. But electronic arts over the past several years has really
turned it around. They're targeting a 75% gross margin next year, which is part of the
reason their cash flow is pumping it out. So, they're in a strong position.
Yeah, it's interesting to see, if you look at all Activision Blizzard, Electronic
Arts, Take-Two, it's really shifted now to not rolling out 20 new games a year, which
used to be how it was in the past. It's really now about investing a ton of money in proven
franchises, spending years to develop them, and knowing that you're going to knock it
out of the park and get probably $1 billion in revenue.
interesting thing that the digital revolution has done. By cutting out the middleman GameStop
and all that, they're making more money than ever on these games. So, they can actually
afford to spend more on the quality of the games, rather than just focusing on rolling
out as many games as possible. Sticking with the games and toys,
Mattel's second quarter loss was bigger than Wall Street was expecting, while Hasbro's
second quarter profit came in higher than expected. Jason, Hasbro's quarter was better
by pretty much every measure, which makes me wonder, why are both of these stocks down
around 10% this week? Yeah, very similar reaction from the market
on both companies. But this really is a tale of two toy makers. We've talked about this
for a while. Mattel's shortcomings have really converted into Hasbro's market share gains,
more or less. So, on the Hasbro side, there's sell-offs where you have to look at the business
and say, all right, is there a problem here that we need to know about? In Hasbro's case,
there really isn't. I mean, it was a very good quarter by pretty much every measure.
I mean, you could see in the call, management's a little bit reserved when it came to a couple
of markets in particular, the U.K. and Brazil, recognizing some macro headwinds there that
are beyond their control. International is important for Hasbro. It's almost half of
their revenue, somewhere around a third of their operating profit. And Brazil is a very
big part of that international segment. So, it matters. But there are plenty of catalysts
on the horizon for them. You've got this, what, Forest Friday coming up. You've got
more frozen stuff coming in the winters. I mean, there's more catalysts than concerns
where it comes to Hasbro. Now, with Mattel, the concerns that we had last quarter are
still there. I mean, it's very hard to get worked up for this business because they just
aren't doing the same job at levering themselves up to really successful IP. And so, what that
is resulting in is a top line that's challenged, margins are getting killed, and the dividend
is even getting cut on top. So, I mean, investors, I think, are realizing more and more that
if you're going to get exposure to this space, go ahead and get it with a company that is
winning and winning for a reason, and shows a lot of reasons to keep on winning, and that's
clearly Hasbro.
Coming up, we'll dip into the Fool mailbag and share a few stocks on our radar.
Stay right here. You're listening to Motley Fool Money.
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As always people on the program
May have interest in the stocks they talk about
The Motley Fool may have formal recommendations for or against, so don't buy or sell stocks
based solely on what you hear. Welcome back to Motley Fool Money. Chris Hill here in studio
with Jason Moser, Matt Argersinger, and David Kretzmann. You can check out past episodes
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you can find The Motley Fool. So just click the subscribe button and take us with you
wherever you want, whenever you want. Our email address is radioatfool.com. Sam Waterbury,
longtime listener with a question about the war on cash. He writes, one question I have is about
Alphabet and Apple, whose Google Wallet and Apple Pay services seem to be competing with the likes
of PayPal and Square. Does the size of these tech giants give them an advantage over smaller players,
or are the more payments-focused companies better positioned because they aren't concerning
themselves with creating phones, computers, cars, etc. It's a great question.
It is a great question, Sam, because there's sort of two sides to the argument. One, I'd
say Apple, of course, a company like Apple and Alphabet, but Apple in particular has
a tremendous advantage because it is the platform that's in your hand.
Oh, I thought you were going to say they have a tremendous advantage. It's called Mountains
of Cash.
That too, that too. But I mean, I think in terms of just the phone itself and being the
ease of going into anywhere now, or most places now, and using your phone to pay for things
is a tremendous advantage. It's an easy hurdle for a lot of customers to do.
At the same time, though, Apple has the hardware, but it doesn't necessarily have the network
size that the credit card companies have or PayPal has. I feel like in a world with a
war on cash, those two sides can certainly exist and win battles here and there. I do
think Apple does have an advantage, and if Apple Pay becomes more significant, they could
have a major leg up.
I think one of the things we try to do in investing is identify either a short-term
catalyst or a long-term trend where value is going to be created. Clearly, the payments
market is one of the biggest long-term trend opportunities out there, I think. That's great
for identifying it. I think to take it one step further, there are going to be multiple
winners. I think we've harped on that before on MarketFoolery. Looking at it from the perspective
of finding a basket, a collection of some of the companies that you think are going
to benefit the most. And it can range all the way from the big dogs down even to smaller,
riskier plays to help mitigate that risk a little bit. Just a great opportunity to always
keep an eye on. The more I look at this, the harder it
is for me to see Visa or MasterCard getting disrupted anytime soon. I feel like they went
out, no matter whether you're using Apple Pay, PayPal, whatever platform it is, and
they have a global network. So, I just think, man, they're in a dominant position to win
out regardless of which of those platforms actually gains an edge.
Yeah, and I would say, just don't discount the idea that there could be consolidation
in this market further. We talk about technology companies like PayPal, Square, could be nice
fits for companies like Apple, Alphabet, even a company like MasterCard that has lots of
cash to put to work. There could be some acquisitions that can really shake up this war on cash
market for sure. One of the things I like about this
question is, we see this dynamic play out in other industries, where there are opportunities
for investors that are essentially pure play, and it's a company or a business that is entirely
focused on one thing. And then, you have the usual suspects of behemoths out there that
have a footprint in it as well, whether it's Alphabet or Microsoft, or, you know, insert
name of tech giant. Question from Zach Poulin at St. Anselm College.
I've been going through each sector of the market and adding all the stocks that I see
every day to an Excel spreadsheet. That sounds exhausting. It's very time-consuming and I'm
sure that I'm missing many stocks that play a crucial role in our future economy. Is there
a better way to learn about stocks in each sector? Obviously, Apple, Amazon, Facebook
and Microsoft are known to many investors, but where do I find the hidden gems that aren't
talked about a lot or publicized in the world?" Great question. And kudos to Zach for being
in college and getting started in investing in individual stocks.
Yeah, he's a bit of a stock jock. I kind of was myself in college. I admire that.
I often did that, too. I'd make lists of companies and ones that I've heard of, other ones I'd
find just by searching around. And I think the great thing is, you can find companies
that are sort of related to companies you might follow on a regular basis. One hack
that I like to use, Zach, is I simply go to Google Finance now and then, and I'll enter
a company, say Nike, and you'll enter that ticker, and you scroll down, and right below
it it'll have a long list of related companies. Companies that you've heard of, like Adidas,
Deckers, but other ones that you haven't heard of, maybe Skechers, VF Corp, Li Ning, which is a
Chinese shoe company. And so, you can find sort of hidden companies doing a very simple trick like
that. And then, that's sort of your beginning point for more research on those names.
One of the things I like about that is that there's no discerning amongst competitors on
Google Finance with regard to size. Which is great, because if you are looking for smaller
companies, as Zach says, the hidden gems, then you want to know, well, what are other companies
that are in this space that are one-tenth the size of whatever is the market leader?
Yeah. And another option, similar to what Matt mentioned, is there are a lot of free
stock screeners online. We have one at caps.fool.com. A lot of other sites will have them.
And you can search by market cap, by industry, by revenue growth, all sorts of different factors.
and that can be a way to narrow down your search and look through companies and figure out which
ones you're interested in following. And you can get ongoing coverage. I'm not being paid to say
this, but at fool.com, we have a lot of writers who will cover these different sectors and companies
each quarter and on a regular basis. And that can be a way to get a better understanding of
an industry and the companies within that industry over time.
One other thing I'll add to sort of dovetail off of what David just said
is, I find it really helpful that there are all of these niche media outlets for different
parts of the investing universe. So, earlier in the week when I was doing some research
on Chipotle in their latest quarter, I found a very helpful article on that mainstream
publication we're all familiar with, Food Safety News. So, it's just one more benefit
to all the options that are out there.
Well, I think you really hit the nail on the head there, along with all of these
great ideas that David and Matt have. I think it's just keeping that curiosity level always
up there and reading. I mean, that's it. You just keep on reading, keep on learning, keep
on keeping plugged in. Boy, that stuff comes at you when you're not even looking for it sometimes.
Let's go to our man behind the glass, Steve Brodo. It's not quite time for Radar
Stocks, but Steve is an experienced investor. Two questions for you, Steve. First, do you
have a piece of advice for Zach Poulin, an investing hack, if you will, when it comes
to research. And my second question is, what's your favorite obscure publication?
Okay, favorite obscure publication, I'll start there. I think it's called Broadcast,
and I get it sent to me from time to time. Broadcasting cable?
I think it is. No, it's streaming media. That is my favorite. The advice I would
give is, find things you're interested in, specifically, if you're a computer gamer,
if you're interested in cars, if you're interested in something else, and dig around. Find out
who's making the rims for the car that you're buying. Find out who's making the parts that
go in the computer you just built, the skateboard wheels. Whatever it is, dig in. There's usually
a public company related. That's a great point. And particularly
as we are a couple of months away from the new iPhone unveiling, a nice reminder from
Steve, that for all the big-name companies out there that are producing whatever a certain
thing is, chances are there are a lot of companies, in some cases public companies, that are the
suppliers to that network. We've seen that with the iPhone, just to pick one device,
where there are some companies that just come in and they're just knocking the cover off
the ball in terms of their stock performance. Great question from Zach, and keep it up.
Alright, we've got a little time to get to the stocks on our radar this week. Steve,
hit you with a question. And you know what? We've got the time. You can hit him back with
a question about the stock or just life in general if you want. David Kretzmann, you're
up first. What are you looking at this week?
David Kretzmann I'm looking at a brand new IPO, Redfin, ticker RDFN. They just went public
today. This is a web-based real estate database and brokerage operating in 84 cities in the
U.S. Over the past year, they've generated $285 million in sales. They have a slightly
disruptive model to the traditional real estate brokerage model. Redfin pays their agents a base
salary, so they're not just on commission like traditional real estate agents. So, they're able
to charge lower commissions to buyers and sellers. They're going after that massive $75 billion real
estate commissions market in the U.S. So, there's a big market opportunity. They're going after a
bigger market than someone like Zillow, and I think in a more disruptive way. The stock is up
40% today. It's first day public. But the market cap is still $1.6 billion. And I could see this
being a lot bigger company down the road. Steve, question about Redfin?
First off, I love Redfin. I think they have the best real estate search engine out there. If you
go to Redfin.com and search around in your area, it's just amazing. They've just done a terrific
job with finding homes, looking at them. It's just terrific. But the problem I have with Redfin is,
what if Redfin doesn't serve your area? You can go and search, and it's like,
they're not in Michigan. What's up? Yeah, that's a bummer for them. They're in the
major metro markets, and they are starting to expand into those smaller towns and cities. But
yeah, that is still an issue for them as they expand. Have you used Redfin to actually buy
or sell a home, Steve? Or would you? Would I? Yes, I would. I've not used them,
but I use them to research homes all the time. Jason Moser, what are you looking at?
Yeah, I'll stick with DK's theme on housing here. Ellie May, ticker E-L-L-I. Oh man,
and the stock got pummeled on earnings this week, Chris. Actually, this could work out
pretty well for investors, but it's a big whiff, a big guy down on lower mortgage volumes.
As we know, Ellie Mae is the mortgage software provider. Fannie and Freddie typically forecast
mortgage volume. As we move from refinancing to a purchase-dominated market, Fannie and
Freddie forecasts are for those volumes to decline about 17% from 2016. We've been really
paying close attention to this one in NDP. We own a small position in it right now, a winning
position. We've been waiting for a pullback on the stock. We had identified it at a $90 price
target. This may actually open up a window of opportunity, because really, it looks like the
business is performing very well. It's just at a tough part in the cycle. So, Ellie Mae.
Steve, question about Ellie Mae?
Housing appears to be very expensive where we live in the Metro DC area, but I'm
hearing that homeownership is still at record lows. How can that be? How does that get resolved?
Well, it is, at this point in time, very low inventory levels, which is keeping
a lot of prospective buyers on the sidelines. The ones who are going in there are typically
offering cash upfront, really, to make the best offer, which is one way those prices
get a little bit artificially pushed up. Steve, I just got a text message from my daughter.
Apparently, our dog ate the pink highlighter in our house, and of course, it was in a room
with carpet. So, my question is, yeah, I got any tips on how I can get pink highlighter
out of a carpet before my wife gets home?
No.
Thanks.
Matt Argersinger, what are you looking at?
I'm looking at Arcos Dorados. The ticker is A-R-C-O. If you know Spanish, that translates
to Golden Arches, which might give you a little bit of a hint as to what this company does.
But look, we talked about McDonald's early in the show. It's amazing the renaissance
the company is having under Easterbrook. If you like McDonald's, then consider investing
in Arcos Dorados, which is the company which has the exclusive right to own, operate, and
franchise McDonald's stores in most of Latin America, including Brazil, Mexico, Colombia,
Argentina, and most of the Caribbean. They operate or franchise nearly 2,200 restaurants.
Been a tough couple of years for Arcos Dorados with same-store sales, with the economic situation
in Brazil and elsewhere, but the same-store sales have just started to turn around. I think this
could be the company on the stock at the beginning of an inflection point.
Steve?
So, I think of McDonald's as being the quintessential American fast food.
Is there a quintessential fast food in Latin America? Is there an analog here?
Outside of tacos, which McDonald's doesn't do, I don't think so. But they have some very specific
things within the Arcos Dorados restaurants that are native to the region, so that you can get
there, which you can't get in the United States. So, they are appealing to the region.
Three stocks.
Steve, you got one you want to add to your watch list?
I'm looking at Redfin.
I didn't know they were going public.
I'm learning something every day here.
Hey, that's what we're here for.
All right, guys.
Thanks for being here.
Thanks, Chris.
Our engineer is Steve Broido.
Our producer is Matt Greer.
I'm Chris Hill.
Thanks for listening.
We'll see you next week.
